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At least 199 records · Page 11

Chapter 9: Human Behavior Dynamics in Sustainability

Human behavior dynamics and actions play a direct and significant role in shaping pathways toward sustainability, resulting in many sustainability challenges. A social dilemma arose when a hypothetical Colorado rural town closed down most of its medicine take-back stations as a result of reduced tax revenue. The current discourse discusses a scenario in which an individual "plays" against everyone else concerning whether to drive to the take-back station to dispose of unused medication (i.e., cooperating) or to flush it or throw it in the landfill (i.e., defecting). Using the structure of the pay-off matrix, this study analyzed unwanted medication disposal from a social dilemma perspective to provide insight into an individual's motivations to cooperate or defect and techniques for encouraging cooperation. The pay-off matrix encompasses four scenarios, namely, win-win when everyone cooperates, you're the sucker when only the individual cooperates, free rider when only the individual defects, and the tragedy of the commons when everyone defects. Reasons for an individual to cooperate include sharing the high moral value with everyone else, valuing social conformity, and taking great pride in doing the right thing, even when cooperating is costly. On the other hand, the individual who defects believes that cooperating will likely make little difference. The individual is selfish or insufficiently motivated by altruism and feels that the bad action will not get caught. When everyone defects, it likely results from participants not wanting to be a "sucker" and a lack of accountability (e.g., no punishment) associated with bad behavior. One solution to the free-rider problem is to appeal to the free rider's altruism. It is important to convince the individual that doing things for the benefit of others can also benefit themselves. Furthermore, a way to fix the social dilemma is to make the defectors pay for their actions that cause the negative externality (i.e., town water contaminated with pharmaceutical chemicals from unwanted medications). The higher the financial incentive for cooperative behavior, the lower the defecting propensity. By including punishment (e.g., discipline and penalty), people tend to defect less often, and highly cooperative outcomes emerge.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A susceptibility gene signature for ERBB2-driven mammary tumour development and metastasis in collaborative cross mice

Background: Deeper insights into ERBB2-driven cancers are essential to develop new treatment approaches for ERBB2+ breast cancers (BCs). We employed the Collaborative Cross (CC) mouse model to unearth genetic factors underpinning Erbb2-driven mammary tumour development and metastasis. Methods: 732 F1 hybrid female mice between FVB/N MMTV-Erbb2 and 30 CC strains were monitored for mammary tumour phenotypes. GWAS pinpointed SNPs that influence various tumour phenotypes. Multivariate analyses and models were used to construct the polygenic score and to develop a mouse tumour susceptibility gene signature (mTSGS), where the corresponding human ortholog was identified and designated as hTSGS. The importance and clinical value of hTSGS in human BC was evaluated using public datasets, encompassing TCGA, METABRIC, GSE96058, and I-SPY2 cohorts. The predictive power of mTSGS for response to chemotherapy was validated in vivo using genetically diverse MMTV-Erbb2 mice. Findings: Distinct variances in tumour onset, multiplicity, and metastatic patterns were observed in F1-hybrid female mice between FVB/N MMTV-Erbb2 and 30 CC strains. Besides lung metastasis, liver and kidney metastases emerged in specific CC strains. GWAS identified specific SNPs significantly associated with tumour onset, multiplicity, lung metastasis, and liver metastasis. Multivariate analyses flagged SNPs in 20 genes (Stx6, Ramp1, Traf3ip1, Nckap5, Pfkfb2, Trmt1l, Rprd1b, Rer1, Sepsecs, Rhobtb1, Tsen15, Abcc3, Arid5b, Tnr, Dock2, Tti1, Fam81a, Oxr1, Plxna2, and Tbc1d31) independently tied to various tumour characteristics, designated as a mTSGS. hTSGS scores (hTSGSS) based on their transcriptional level showed prognostic values, superseding clinical factors and PAM50 subtype across multiple human BC cohorts, and predicted pathological complete response independent of and superior to MammaPrint score in I-SPY2 study. The power of mTSGS score for predicting chemotherapy response was further validated in an in vivo mouse MMTV-Erbb2 model, showing that, like findings in human patients, mouse tumours with low mTSGS scores were most likely to respond to treatment. Interpretation: Our investigation has unveiled many new genes predisposing individuals to ERBB2-driven cancer. Translational findings indicate that hTSGS holds promise as a biomarker for refining treatment strategies for patients with BC.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DeepMC: a deep learning method for efficient Monte Carlo beamlet dose calculation by predictive denoising in magnetic resonance-guided radiotherapy

Abstract Emerging magnetic resonance (MR) guided radiotherapy affords significantly improved anatomy visualization and, subsequently, more effective personalized treatment. The new therapy paradigm imposes significant demands on radiation dose calculation quality and speed, creating an unmet need for the acceleration of Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation. Existing deep learning approaches to denoise the final plan MC dose fail to achieve the accuracy and speed requirements of large-scale beamlet dose calculation in the presence of a strong magnetic field for online adaptive radiotherapy planning. Our deep learning dose calculation method, DeepMC, addresses these needs by predicting low-noise dose from extremely noisy (but fast) MC-simulated dose and anatomical inputs, thus enabling significant acceleration. DeepMC simultaneously reduces MC sampling noise and predicts corrupted dose buildup at tissue-air material interfaces resulting from MR-field induced electron return effects. Here we demonstrate our model’s ability to accelerate dose calculation for daily treatment planning by a factor of 38 over traditional low-noise MC simulation with clinically meaningful accuracy in deliverable dose and treatment delivery parameters. As a post-processing approach, DeepMC provides compounded acceleration of large-scale dose calculation when used alongside established MC acceleration techniques in variance reduction and graphics processing unit-based MC simulation.

Engineering↗

No evidence of Bartonella infections in host-seeking Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus ticks in the United States

Background. Bartonella spp. infect a variety of vertebrates throughout the world, with generally high prevalence. Several Bartonella spp. are known to cause diverse clinical manifestations in humans and have been recognized as emerging pathogens. These bacteria are mainly transmitted by blood-sucking arthropods, such as fleas and lice. The role of ticks in the transmission of Bartonella spp. is unclear. Methods. A recently developed quadruplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplicon next-generation sequencing approach that targets Bartonella-specific fragments on gltA, ssrA, rpoB, and groEL was applied to test host-seeking Ixodes scapularis ticks (n=1641; consisting of 886 nymphs and 755 adults) collected in 23 states of the eastern half of the United States and Ixodes pacificus ticks (n=966; all nymphs) collected in California in the western United States for the presence of Bartonella DNA. These species were selected because they are common human biters and serve as vectors of pathogens causing the greatest number of vector-borne diseases in the United States. Results. No Bartonella DNA was detected in any of the ticks tested by any target. Conclusions. Owing to the lack of Bartonella detection in a large number of host-seeking Ixodes spp. ticks tested across a broad geographical region, our results strongly suggest that I. scapularis and I. pacificus are unlikely to contribute more than minimally, if at all, to the transmission of Bartonella spp.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A multi-specific, multi-affinity antibody platform neutralizes sarbecoviruses and confers protection against SARS-CoV-2 in vivo

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been responsible for a global pandemic. Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have been used as antiviral therapeutics; however, these therapeutics have been limited in efficacy by viral sequence variability in emerging variants of concern (VOCs) and in deployment by the need for high doses. In this study, we leveraged the multi-specific, multi-affinity antibody (Multabody, MB) platform, derived from the human apoferritin protomer, to enable the multimerization of antibody fragments. MBs were shown to be highly potent, neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 at lower concentrations than their corresponding mAb counterparts. In mice infected with SARS-CoV-2, a tri-specific MB targeting three regions within the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain was protective at a 30-fold lower dose than a cocktail of the corresponding mAbs. Furthermore, we showed in vitro that mono-specific MBs potently neutralize SARS-CoV-2 VOCs by leveraging augmented avidity, even when corresponding mAbs lose their ability to neutralize potently, and that tri-specific MBs expanded the neutralization breadth beyond SARS-CoV-2 to other sarbecoviruses. Our work demonstrates how avidity and multi-specificity combined can be leveraged to confer protection and resilience against viral diversity that exceeds that of traditional monoclonal antibody therapies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Optimization of Species-Selective Reversible Proteasome Inhibitors for the Treatment of Malaria

Abstract Malaria remains a critical global health challenge, with increasing resistance to frontline therapies necessitating novel drug targets. The proteasome has emerged as a promising target for antimalarial drug discovery. This study describes efforts to optimize a series of species-selective reversible inhibitors targeting the Plasmodium falciparum 20S proteasome. Starting from the carboxypiperidine scaffold identified through a high-throughput viability screen, we conducted iterative structure–activity relationship studies, leading to the development of highly potent and selective inhibitors with good oral bioavailability. Lead compounds demonstrated nanomolar potency against P. falciparum blood-stage parasites and selective inhibition of the parasite proteasome over the human counterpart. Cryo-EM structural studies confirmed binding at the β5 subunit, while in vivo pharmacokinetic studies identified promising candidates for further development. These findings support proteasome inhibition as a viable strategy for novel antimalarial drug development.

Gahalawat, Suraksha [UT Southwestern Medical Cente↗

Pulmonary decompression sickness at altitude: early symptoms and circulating gas emboli

INTRODUCTION: Pulmonary altitude decompression sickness (DCS) is a rare condition. 'Chokes' which are characterized by the triad of substernal pain, cough, and dyspnea, are considered to be associated with severe accumulation of gas bubbles in the pulmonary capillaries and may rapidly develop into a life-threatening medical emergency. This study was aimed at characterizing early symptomatology and the appearance of venous gas emboli (VGE). METHODS: Symptoms of simulated-altitude DCS and VGE (with echo-imaging ultrasound) were analyzed in 468 subjects who participated in 22 high altitude hypobaric chamber research protocols from 1983 to 2001 at Brooks Air Force Base, TX. RESULTS: Of 2525 subject-exposures to simulated altitude, 1030 (41%) had symptoms of DCS. Only 29 of those included DCS-related pulmonary symptoms. Of these, only 3 subjects had all three pulmonary symptoms of chokes; 9 subjects had two of the pulmonary symptoms; and 17 subjects had only one. Of the 29 subject-exposures with pulmonary symptoms, 27 had VGE and 21 had severe VGE. The mean onset times of VGE and symptoms in the 29 subject-exposures were 42 +/- 30 min and 109 +/- 61 min, respectively. In 15 subjects, the symptoms disappeared during recompression to ground level followed by 2 h of oxygen breathing. In the remaining 14 cases, the symptoms disappeared with immediate hyperbaric oxygen treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Pulmonary altitude DCS or chokes is confirmed to be a rare condition. Our data showed that when diagnosed early, recompression to ground level pressure and/or hyperbaric oxygen treatment was 100% successful in resolving the symptoms.

Non-NASA Center↗

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Hendra virus in Australia reveal stable maintenance of diverse viral clades among Pteropus bats

Hendra virus (HeV) was discovered in 1994 in Australia. Limited genomic data have hindered comprehensive understanding of HeV’s evolutionary dynamics. Here, in this work, we recovered 48 HeV genomes from bats and 9 from horses from Australia between 2016 and 2020, revealing four distinct clades. Each clade was distributed over a large spatial area with multiple clades co-circulating within a single bat roost on the same day and over consecutive years. The diversity and temporal stability of co-circulating clades suggest that viral dynamics are driven by episodic shedding of existing lineages maintained at the population level, rather than immune-driven strain-replacement dynamics. HeV isolates of different clades displayed variation in phenotypic properties but minimal antigenic differences. We provide an overview of evolutionary dynamics, phenotypic properties and assessment of countermeasures for HeV, and provide insights into the processes that maintain virus diversity in bats and influence the potential for viral emergence.

genetic variation↗

Integrative mapping reveals molecular features underlying the mechanism of nucleocytoplasmic transport

Nuclear pore complexes (NPCs) enable rapid, selective, and robust nucleocytoplasmic transport. To explain how transport emerges from the system components and their interactions, we used experimental data and theoretical information to construct an integrative Brownian dynamics model of transport through an NPC, coupled to a kinetic model of transport in the cell. The model recapitulates key aspects of transport for a wide range of molecular cargoes, including preribosomes and viral capsids. Our model quantifies how flexible phenylalanine-glycine (FG) repeat proteins create an entropic barrier to passive diffusion and how this barrier is selectively lowered in facilitated diffusion by the many transient interactions of nuclear transport receptors with the FG repeats. Selective transport is enhanced by “fuzzy” multivalent interactions, redundant FG repeat mass, coupling to the energy-dependent RanGTP concentration gradient, and exponential dependence of transport kinetics on the transport barrier. Our model will facilitate rational modulation of the NPC and its artificial mimics.

Raveh, Barak [School of Computer Science and Engin↗

Impact of Extreme Heat on Emergency Department Admissions for Childhood and Adult Asthma: An Evaluation of Earth Observations and Heat Wave Definitions

Extreme heat has been associated with adverse health outcomes, yet its impact on asthma exacerbations remains understudied. This is, in part, due to data limitations: research that relies on weather station records and aggregated health statistics cannot resolve fine-scale differences in heat impacts. This study investigates the association between heat wave definitions and summertime asthma-related emergency department visits in Baltimore, Maryland from 2016 to 2022, including 819 adult and 695 pediatric exacerbations. Using geocoded electronic health records and air temperature measurements at several spatial resolutions, we applied a case-crossover design with conditional logistic regressions at the census block group and tract levels. We found strong associations between asthma exacerbations and nighttime heat wave definitions based on relative thresholds of minimum temperatures when census block group or tract level temperature estimates were used. These relationships were significant for both age groups and showed elevated risks in socially vulnerable areas. In contrast, heat wave definitions derived from the city's primary National Weather Service synoptic weather station show associations between asthma and daytime heat extremes, suggesting that the character of the heat hazard depends on the scale at which it is defined. The extreme heat event definition used by Baltimore City's Code Red system showed no significant association with exacerbations. These findings highlight the importance of data resolution in shaping health inferences related to extreme heat in urban environments. Further, this study demonstrates that, regardless of spatial scale, extreme heat is associated with asthma exacerbations in both age groups.

Corpuz, B. [Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, M↗

Imaging and dosimetric characteristics of 67 Cu

In recent years the use of beta-emitting radiopharmaceuticals for cancer therapy has expanded rapidly following development of therapeutics for neuroendocrine tumors, prostate cancer, and other oncologic malignancies. One emerging beta-emitting radioisotope of interest for therapy is 67 Cu (t 1/2 : 2.6 d) due to its chemical equivalency with the widely-established positron-emitting isotope 64 Cu (t 1/2 : 12.7 h). Here we evaluate both the imaging and dosimetric characteristics of 67 Cu, as well as producing the first report of SPECT/CT imaging using 67 Cu. To this end, 67 Cu was produced by photon-induced reactions on isotopically-enriched 68 Zn at the Low-Energy Accelerator Facility (LEAF) of Argonne National Laboratory, followed by bulk separation of metallic 68 Zn by sublimation and radiochemical purification by column chromatography. Gamma spectrometry was performed by efficiency-calibrated high-purity germanium (HPGe) analysis to verify absolute activity calibration and establish radionuclidic purity. Absolute activity measurements corroborated manufacturer-recommended dose-calibrator settings and no radionuclidic impurities were observed. Using the Clinical Trials Network anthropomorphic chest phantom, SPECT/CT images were acquired. Medium Energy (ME) SPECT collimation was found to provide the best image quality from the primary 185 keV gamma emission of 67 Cu. Reconstructed images of 67 Cu were similar in quality to images acquired using 177 Lu. Recovery coefficients were calculated and compared against quantitative images of 99m Tc, 177 Lu, and 64 Cu within the same anthropomorphic chest phantom. Production and clinical imaging of 67 Cu appears feasible, and future studies investigating the therapeutic efficacy of 67 Cu-based radiopharmaceuticals are warranted.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Aeromonas in South Asia: genomic insights into an environmental pathogen and reservoir of antimicrobial resistance

Aeromonads are an ecologically versatile group of bacteria that cause infections in aquatic animals and are recognised as emerging human pathogens. Despite this, our understanding of Aeromonas diversity, especially the relationship between clinical and environmental strains, remains limited. Here, we present a genomic analysis of the Aeromonas genus, comprising 1853 genomes, and a detailed comparison of clinical and environmental strains from South Asia, including 996 newly sequenced genomes from Bangladesh and India. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that Aeromonas is a highly diverse genus, with no distinct clade separating clinical and environmental isolates. We identified 28 Aeromonas species and 905 novel sequence types, comprising 72.5% of the genomes. Notably, we show a high incidence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes across all isolates, including against front and last-line antibiotics. Finally, we highlight frequent misidentification of Aeromonas as Vibrio cholerae, which is relevant to cholera-endemic regions where both genera co-exist and are associated with diarrhoeal disease. Our study underscores Aeromonas as an important environmental AMR reservoir and emerging multi-species pathogen capable of spilling over into human populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Neutrino interaction vertex reconstruction in DUNE with Pandora deep learning

The Pandora Software Development Kit and algorithm libraries perform reconstruction of neutrino interactions in liquid argon time projection chamber detectors. Pandora is the primary event reconstruction software used at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment, which will operate four large-scale liquid argon time projection chambers at the far detector site in South Dakota, producing high-resolution images of charged particles emerging from neutrino interactions. While these high-resolution images provide excellent opportunities for physics, the complex topologies require sophisticated pattern recognition capabilities to interpret signals from the detectors as physically meaningful objects that form the inputs to physics analyses. A critical component is the identification of the neutrino interaction vertex. Subsequent reconstruction algorithms use this location to identify the individual primary particles and ensure they each result in a separate reconstructed particle. A new vertex-finding procedure described in this article integrates a U-ResNet neural network performing hit-level classification into the multi-algorithm approach used by Pandora to identify the neutrino interaction vertex. The machine learning solution is seamlessly integrated into a chain of pattern-recognition algorithms. The technique substantially outperforms the previous BDT-based solution, with a more than 20% increase in the efficiency of sub-1 cm vertex reconstruction across all neutrino flavours.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Enhancing Radionuclide Production Capabilities at the Duke University Medical Center Cyclotron with a Focus on Astatine-211

Radionuclides play an important role in a diverse array of fields including physics, chemistry, agriculture, materials science, national security, medical research and patient care. Establishing a reliable domestic supply of key radionuclides is critical to our national competitiveness in these areas. Regarding medical applications, targeted alpha-particle therapy (TAT) has become of great interest to basic researchers and clinicians alike and is emerging as a valuable and cost-effective approach for cancer treatment. Unfortunately, progress in TAT, particularly with regard to its clinical translation, has been severely hampered by the limited availability of the most promising radionuclides at a reasonable cost, and with appropriate chemical and radiochemical purity. In this project, we have attempted to address this problem by focusing on production of the 7.2-h half-life α-particle emitter, 211 At, which has long been considered to be one of the most promising radionuclides for TAT. We note that he critical importance of improving the supply of 211 At in the United States was noted in the Funding Opportunity Announcement related to this project. At Duke University, we have a CS-30 cyclotron that is one of the few accelerators in the United States that has an alpha-particle beam that has enough energy to make useful quantities of 211 At. With this cyclotron, we have been able to produce more 211 At than anywhere else in the world because of our unique internal cyclotron target system. However, the CS-30 cyclotron is nearly 40 years old and was no longer reliable. In addition, its operation required considerable skill, largely because it had analog control systems, and vital parts including old-fashioned power supplies, were becoming unavailable. For these reasons, the current project was undertaken to evaluate all the subsystems of the CS-30 cyclotron and replace, repair, and update them. With help from our consultant, Ionetix, this has now been accomplished. We believe that because of this work, the CS-30 can reliably supply 211 At for basic research and clinical trials both at Duke and beyond.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Enhanced detection of paramagnetic fluorine-19 magnetic resonance imaging agents using zero echo time sequence and compressed sensing

Fluorine-19 ( 19 F) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an emerging technique offering specific detection of labeled cells in vivo. Lengthy acquisition times and modest signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) makes three-dimensional spin-density–weighted 19 F imaging challenging. Recent advances in tracer paramagnetic metallo-perfluorocarbon (MPFC) nanoemulsion probes have shown multifold SNR improvements due to an accelerated 19 F T 1 relaxation rate and a commensurate gain in imaging speed and averages. However, 19 F T 2 -reduction and increased linewidth limit the amount of metal additive in MPFC probes, thus constraining the ultimate SNR. To overcome these barriers, we describe a compressed sampling (CS) scheme, implemented using a “zero” echo time (ZTE) sequence, with data reconstructed via a sparsity-promoting algorithm. Our CS-ZTE scheme acquires k-space data using an undersampled spherical radial pattern and signal averaging. Image reconstruction employs off-the-shelf sparse solvers to solve a joint total variation and -norm regularized least square problem. To evaluate CS-ZTE, we performed simulations and acquired 19 F MRI data at 11.7 T in phantoms and mice receiving MPFC-labeled dendritic cells. For MPFC-labeled cells in vivo, we show SNR gains of ~6.3 × with 8-fold undersampling. We show that this enhancement is due to three mechanisms including undersampling and commensurate increase in signal averaging in a fixed scan time, denoising attributes from the CS algorithm, and paramagnetic reduction of T 1 . Importantly, 19 F image intensity analyses yield accurate estimates of absolute quantification of 19 F spins. Overall, the CS-ZTE method using MPFC probes achieves ultrafast imaging, a substantial boost in detection sensitivity, accurate 19 F spin quantification, and minimal image artifacts.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Preemptive optimization of a clinical antibody for broad neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 variants and robustness against viral escape

Most previously authorized clinical antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have lost neutralizing activity to recent variants due to rapid viral evolution. To mitigate such escape, we preemptively enhance AZD3152, an antibody authorized for prophylaxis in immunocompromised individuals. Using deep mutational scanning (DMS) on the SARS-CoV-2 antigen, we identify AZD3152 vulnerabilities at antigen positions F456 and D420. Through two iterations of computational antibody design that integrates structure-based modeling, machine-learning, and experimental validation, we co-optimize AZD3152 against 24 contemporary and previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, as well as 20 potential future escape variants. Our top candidate, 3152-1142, restores full potency (100-fold improvement) against the more recently emerged XBB.1.5+F456L variant that escaped AZD3152, maintains potency against previous variants of concern, and shows no additional vulnerability as assessed by DMS. This preemptive mitigation demonstrates a generalizable approach for optimizing existing antibodies against potential future viral escape.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Production and purification of research scale 161 Tb using cation-exchange semi-preparative HPLC for radiopharmaceutical applications

Terbium-161 ( 161 Tb) is emerging as a promising radionuclide for cancer therapy due to its favorable nuclear properties that are similar to clinically established lutetium-177 ( 177 Lu) along with its therapeutic edge arising from the higher number of Auger and conversion electrons per decay. These low energy electrons result in higher cytotoxicity within a short range of the decaying nuclei to enhance therapeutic efficacy. Despite these promising characteristics, a significant challenge remains in the lack of a domestic 161 Tb supply in the United States, which poses an obstacle to the advancement of 161 Tb-based radiopharmaceutical research and development. Here, this study developed a reliable cation-exchange high-performance liquid chromatography-based method for purification of reactor-produced 161 Tb at quantities suitable to support research and preclinical studies. The purified 161 Tb product showed high radionuclidic purity with excellent radiochemical purity, and the successful labeling studies with the DOTA chelator and DOTA-TATE peptide demonstrated the effective incorporation of the purified 161 Tb into radiopharmaceuticals designed for targeted cancer therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗