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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

In-situ X-ray observations of ultrasound-induced explosive decomposition

High-strain mechanical loading of polymer-bonded explosives can produce significant stress concentrations due to microstructural heterogeneities, resulting in localized thermal “hot spots”. Ultrasound produces similar effects and has been proposed as a tool to study the thermomechanical interactions related to explosive initiation. Detailed observations of the processes governing the generation of heat in these materials are severely lacking, yet they are vital for identifying salient physics, improving the modeling tools used to predict mechanical response, improving explosives safety, and providing insight into the initiation mechanisms of explosion. Here we discuss high-speed, high-resolution in-situ observations, obtained via synchrotron X-ray phase contrast imaging and diffraction, of the heating and decomposition of an explosive material under ultrasonic excitation. We demonstrate that interfacial friction is a dominant heating mechanism and can yield violent reaction of explosive particles. Moreover, sub-surface particle temperatures are estimated via diffraction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2012

Vapor generation methods for explosives detection research

The generation of calibrated vapor samples of explosives compounds remains a challenge due to the low vapor pressures of the explosives, adsorption of explosives on container and tubing walls, and the requirement to manage (typically) multiple temperature zones as the vapor is generated, diluted, and delivered. Methods that have been described to generate vapors can be classified as continuous or pulsed flow vapor generators. Vapor sources for continuous flow generators are typically explosives compounds supported on a solid support, or compounds contained in a permeation or diffusion device. Sources are held at elevated isothermal temperatures. Similar sources can be used for pulsed vapor generators; however, pulsed systems may also use injection of solutions onto heated surfaces with generation of both solvent and explosives vapors, transient peaks from a gas chromatograph, or vapors generated by s programmed thermal desorption. This article reviews vapor generator approaches with emphasis on the method of generating the vapors and on practical aspects of vapor dilution and handling. In addition, a gas chromatographic system with two ovens that is configurable with up to four heating ropes is proposed that could serve as a single integrated platform for explosives vapor generation and device testing. Issues related to standards, calibration, and safety are also discussed.

2,4-DNT↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Effects of Material-Filled Voids on Detonation Wave Shape in Rubberized RDX Explosives

The sensitivity of explosives is affected by inhomogeneities within the material. This is evident in the increased shock sensitivity of explosives with slightly lower densities resulting from an increased number of hotspots. The influence of hotspots on explosive initiation has been well studied; however, few studies have been conducted on the effect of intermediate-sized voids (0.1–10 mm) on a propagating detonation wave. Cylindrical voids filled with air have been studied for diameters ranging from 0.3 mm to 0.8 mm for both 1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocane (HMX) and 1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazinane (RDX)-based rubberized explosives. Continuing the investigation into single cylindrical voids, this study examined the effects of 0.5 mm diameter voids filled with different inert cylindrical metals on the detonation wave shape for an RDX-based rubberized explosive. The metals selected for experiments were 1066 aluminum, brass, copper, and tungsten. The propagation of the detonation wave was captured using a digital streak camera. Experimental results showed that the extent of detonation wave shaping was closely tied to the density differential between the bulk explosive and metal insert. Forty-four different filler materials, including non-metals, were simulated using a hydrodynamic code to further analyze material inclusion effects. The main factors hypothesized to be of interest were bulk sound speed, shock impedance, and filler material density. We found that the local detonation delay could be correlated fairly well to a ratio of bulk sound speed and density. Understanding the influence of material inclusions on detonation performance and wave shape allows for tailoring of detonations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2013

Direct Real-Time Detection of Vapors from Explosive Compounds

The real-time detection of vapors from low volatility explosives including PETN, tetryl, RDX and nitroglycerine along with various compositions containing these substances is demonstrated. This was accomplished with an atmospheric flow tube (AFT) using a non-radioactive ionization source and coupled to a mass spectrometer. Direct vapor detection was demonstrated in less than 5 seconds at ambient temperature without sample pre-concentration. The several seconds of residence time of analytes in the AFT provides a significant opportunity for reactant ions to interact with analyte vapors to achieve ionization. This extended reaction time, combined with the selective ionization using the nitrate reactant ions (NO3- and NO3-•HNO3), enables highly sensitive explosives detection. Observed signals from diluted explosive vapors indicate detection limits below 10 ppqv using selected ion monitoring (SIM) of the explosive-nitrate adduct at m/z 349, 378, 284 and 289 for tetryl, PETN, RDX and NG respectively. Also provided is a demonstration of the vapor detection from 10 different energetic formulations, including double base propellants, plastic explosives and commercial blasting explosives using SIM for the NG, PETN and RDX product ions.

atmospheric pressure ionization↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fourier-like Thermal Relaxation of Nanoscale Explosive Hot Spots

Hot spots are local regions of high temperature that are widely considered to govern explosive initiation. Hot spot dynamics rests on a delicate balance between heat generation due to chemical reactions and heat loss through thermal conduction, making accurate determinations of the conductivity under extreme conditions a key component of predictive explosive models. We develop here an approach to directly determine the thermal transport properties of explosive hot spots with realistic initial structures through a combination of molecular dynamics (MD) and diffusive heat equation (HEq) modeling. Effective thermal conductivity values are determined by fitting HEq models to MD predictions of long timescale hot spot relaxation. The approach is applied to model hot spots in the molecular crystalline explosive 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB) for a range of shock strengths and two limiting cases for impact orientation. Isotropic and anisotropic HEq models yield similar results, despite TATB exhibiting some of the largest and most anisotropic thermal conductivity values for explosive near normal conditions. The conductivity is found to be a strong function of density, which parametrically captures dependence on temperature, pressure, and material state. The associated root-mean-square errors of the fitted HEq models are approximately 5% of MD predicted final equilibrium temperatures. Here, the conductivity values determined here for TATB hot spots are considerably larger than those used in a prior hot spot criticality study, which may significantly impact predictions for critical hot spot sizes. The approach provides a convenient foundation for determining the effective thermal conductivity for hot spot problems in other explosives and directly yields information on reasonable approximations that might be taken in higher-level models for those materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Engineering the Microstructure and Morphology of Explosive Films via Control of Interfacial Energy

Physical vapor deposition of organic explosives enables growth of polycrystalline films with a unique microstructure and morphology compared to the bulk material. This study demonstrates the ability to control crystal orientation and porosity in pentaerythritol tetranitrate films by varying the interfacial energy between the substrate and the vapor-deposited explosive. Additionally, variation in density, porosity, surface roughness, and optical properties is achieved in the explosive film, with significant implications for initiation sensitivity and detonation performance of the explosive material. Various surface science techniques, including angle-resolved X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and multiliquid contact angle analysis, are utilized to characterize interfacial characteristics between the substrate and explosive film. Optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy of pentaerythritol tetranitrate surfaces and fracture cross sections illustrate the difference in morphology evolution and the microstructure achieved through surface energy modification. X-ray diffraction studies with the Tilt-A-Whirl three-dimensional pole figure rendering and texture analysis software suite reveal that high surface energy substrates result in a preferred (110) out-of-plane orientation of pentaerythritol tetranitrate crystallites and denser films. Low surface energy substrates create more randomly textured pentaerythritol tetranitrate and lead to nanoscale porosity and lower density films. This work furthers the scientific basis for interfacial engineering of polycrystalline organic explosive films through control of surface energy, enabling future study of dynamic and reactive detonative phenomena at the microscale. Results of this study also have potential applications to active pharmaceutical ingredients, stimuli-responsive polymer films, organic thin film transistors, and other areas.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Demonstrating resonant ultrasound spectroscopy as a viable technique to characterize thermally conditioned high explosive materials

We present results of resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (RUS) measurements applied to granular high explosive materials at different bulk pressing densities and degree of thermal conditioning. The material chosen in this study is a ubiquitously used explosive material known as pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN), which is used commercially in civil and defense applications both as a binderized plastic bonded explosive material and an unbinderized neat material. However, changes in granular PETN bulk elastic properties due to thermal conditioning, which could have implications for better understanding environmental aging-related effects, have not been well studied even though it is believed that elasticity may play an important role in explosive material initiation mechanisms. Furthermore, monitoring elastic property changes in granular explosive pressings has not yet been demonstrated using RUS, which is an appealing non-destructive characterization tool that requires only dry point contact with the explosive material. To this end, we report the first study using RUS to quantify the elastic properties of binderized and neat PETN pressings as well as to quantify changes in elastic properties as a function of both thermal conditioning and bulk pressing density. Elastic stiffness coefficients, sometimes more commonly referred to as elastic constants, calculated from the RUS measurements on the different PETN-based materials show a significant increase for the post-conditioned samples compared to the pre-conditioned samples. This trend of increasing elastic properties with thermal conditioning was consistent for different density pressings, different thermal exposure conditions, and even different neat PETN pressings of differing average crystal sizes and/or specific surface areas.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

ON THE IMPORTANCE OF THE EQUATION OF STATE FOR THE NEUTRINO-DRIVEN SUPERNOVA EXPLOSION MECHANISM

By implementing the widely used equations of state (EOS) from Lattimer and Swesty (LS) and H. Shen et al. (SHEN) in core-collapse supernova simulations, we explore possible impacts of these EOS on the post-bounce dynamics prior to the onset of neutrino-driven explosions. Our spherically symmetric (1D) and axially symmetric (2D) models are based on neutrino radiation hydrodynamics including spectral transport, which is solved by the isotropic diffusion source approximation. We confirm that in 1D simulations neutrino-driven explosions cannot be obtained for any of the employed EOS. Impacts of the EOS on the post-bounce hydrodynamics are more clearly visible in 2D simulations. In 2D models of a 15 M {sub Sun} progenitor using the LS EOS, the stalled bounce shock expands to increasingly larger radii, which is not the case when using the SHEN EOS. Keeping in mind that the omission of the energy drain by heavy-lepton neutrinos in the present scheme could facilitate explosions, we find that 2D models of an 11.2 M {sub Sun} progenitor produce neutrino-driven explosions for all the EOS under investigation. Models using the LS EOS are slightly more energetic compared with those with the SHEN EOS. The more efficient neutrino heating in the LS models coincides with a higher electron antineutrino luminosity and a larger mass that is enclosed within the gain region. The models based on the LS EOS also show a more vigorous and aspherical downflow of accreting matter to the surface of the protoneutron star (PNS). The accretion pattern is essential for the production and strength of outgoing pressure waves, which can push in turn the shock to larger radii and provide more favorable conditions for the explosion. Based on our models, we investigate several diagnostic indicators of the explosion that have been suggested in the literature, e.g., the amplitude of the standing accretion shock instability mode, the mass-weighted average entropy in the gain region, the PNS radius, the antesonic condition, the ratio of advection and heating timescales, the neutrino heating efficiency, and the growth parameter of convection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

IMPULSIVE SPOT HEATING AND THERMAL EXPLOSION OF INTERSTELLAR GRAINS REVISITED

The problem of the impulsive heating of dust grains in cold, dense interstellar clouds is revisited theoretically with the aim of better understanding the leading mechanisms of the explosive desorption of icy mantles. We rigorously show that if the heating of a reactive medium occurs within a sufficiently localized spot (e.g., the heating of mantles by cosmic rays (CRs)), then the subsequent thermal evolution is characterized by a single dimensionless number λ. This number identifies a bifurcation between two distinct regimes: when λ exceeds a critical value (threshold), the heat equation exhibits the explosive solution, i.e., the thermal (chemical) explosion is triggered. Otherwise, thermal diffusion causes the deposited heat to spread over the entire grain—this regime is commonly known as whole-grain heating. The theory allows us to find a critical combination of physical parameters that govern the explosion of icy mantles due to impulsive spot heating. In particular, our calculations suggest that heavy CR species (e.g., iron ions) colliding with dust are able to trigger the explosion. Based on recently calculated local CR spectra, we estimate the expected rate of explosive desorption. The efficiency of the desorption, which in principle affects all solid species independent of their binding energy, is shown to be comparable to other CR desorption mechanisms typically considered in the literature. Also, the theory allows us to estimate the maximum abundances of reactive species that may be stored in the mantles, which provides important constraints on the available astrochemical models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Data acquisition and analysis of the UNCOSS underwater explosive neutron sensor

The purpose of the FP7 UNCOSS project (Underwater Coastal Sea Surveyor, http://www.uncoss-project.org) is to develop a neutron-based underwater explosive sensor to detect unexploded ordnance lying on the sea bottom. The Associated Particle Technique is used to focus the inspection on a suspicious object located by optical and electromagnetic sensors and to determine if there is an explosive charge inside. This paper presents the data acquisition electronics and data analysis software which have been developed for this project. The electronics digitize and process the signal in real-time based on a field programmable gate array structure to perform precise time-of-flight and gamma-ray energy measurements. UNCOSS software offers the basic tools to analyze the time-of-flight and energy spectra of the interrogated object. It allows to unfold the gamma-ray spectrum into pure elemental count proportions, mainly C, N, O, Fe, Al, Si, and Ca. The C, N, and O count fractions are converted into chemical proportions by taking into account the gamma-ray production cross sections, as well as neutron and photon attenuation in the different shields between the ROV (Remotely Operated Vehicle) and the explosive, such as the explosive iron shell, seawater, and ROV envelop. These chemical ratios are plotted in a two-dimensional (2D) barycentric representation to position the measured point with respect to common explosives. The systematic uncertainty due to the above attenuation effects and counting statistical fluctuations are combined with a Monte Carlo method to provide a 3D uncertainty area in a barycentric plot, which allows to determine the most probable detected materials in view to make a decision about the presence of explosive. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2018

Fracture Effects on Explosive Response (FEER); FY2018 Report

It is known that the violence of explosive response is affected by inertial and mechanical confinement. In a mechanical insult, the impact location creates a contact pressure that can act as confinement surrounding the ignition location, as has been observed in the Skid Test experiment. Under certain conditions — the details of which have not been well characterized — the ignition can produce cracking in the explosive, down which flames are observed to propagate. Cracks serve to simultaneously provide additional surface area for accelerating the reaction, as well as vent paths for quenching the reaction. These are competing behaviors, and the factors which govern the outcome are poorly described. A new experiment was devised to examine the effect of a controlled pre-load pressure on the explosive response. Sixteen experiments were performed on 1-inch thick discs of PBX 9501, with diameters of 1 in ch, 4.25 in ch, and 5 in ch. The explosive was compressed to a known pre-load between two clear windows and ignited at the center of the bottom surface with a focused laser impinging on a graphite inclusion. The ensuing reaction was imaged through the windows used to compress the sample, and from the side. A speckle pattern was applied to some samples for performing DIC (digital image correlation) for the purpose of quantifying the strain field and tracking crack growth. A threshold behavior was observed, in which higher-pressure pre-load resulted in cracks forming, while lower-pressure pre-load vented across the face of the explosive. This report presents the preliminary results, discusses the observations, enumerates hypotheses regarding the observed behavior, identifies lessons learned, and outlines a path forward for the next round of testing. Proof testing was only recently concluded and considerable additional analysis is required. These data will be valuable for the ongoing development of a constitutive mechanical and cracking failure model that will aid in predicting explosive response in mechanical impact scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Response of Explosives to Accidental Stimuli

This brief discussion of the non-shock response of explosives is intended to introduce the reader to the basic concepts involved, and as additional reading to a live class on the subject. Explosives are generally designed to detonate – a specific kind of explosion in which a shock wave – a supersonic discontinuity in pressure, density and particle velocity – passes through the material and triggers fast chemical decomposition, liberating energy that is available to support the shock wave which would otherwise die out. The result may perhaps be usefully visualized as a rocket-propelled shock wave. Ideally, an explosive would detonate reliably when required while behaving as an inert material in all other circumstances. Modern engineered explosives, such as those used in nuclear weapons, largely meet the first criterion but fail the second because, even though they are very difficult to detonate unintentionally, they also exhibit non-detonative energetic decomposition responses to accidental stimuli that can range from mild to very violent. There are two distinct elements to a full understanding of this regime of behavior: 1. How do accidental stimuli cause the onset of decomposition? 2. What determines the violence of the ensuing reaction? In order to understand these elements, we must first consider the full range of behaviors of commonly used explosives. This course is intended to introduce the student to the basic concepts and to encourage further reading on the subject.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collaborative Research and Development Program on Explosive Detection Technology

In September 2013, at the 6th Permanent Coordinating Group Meeting between the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) and the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Sureté Nucléaire (IRSN), France expressed an interest in bilateral cooperation with the United States because its newly revised regulations that require enhanced explosives detection capabilities at nuclear and radiological facilities. In the ensuing years, PNNL (DOE/NNSA) and IRSN sought to identify an area of collaboration within explosives detection that would leverage the specific technical strengths of each organization. Based upon awareness of each other’s technical acumen gleaned from the scientific literature on explosives detection, it was clear that specific organizations within each nation could provide the needed expertise to enable enhancement of explosives detection through a collaborative development effort. The French lnstitut Saint-Louis was determined to be an optimal partner for IRSN to develop a collaboration with DOE/NNSA using PNNL’s detection team in this effort. Thus, the dialog was started between the technical experts at each organization to define where complementary expertise in explosives detection could be best leveraged. The technical plans and objectives of this project were sound with promising results. In the end, the joint action sheet was not implemented. The challenge with executing the project was in the complexity of getting a signed agreement between DOE, IRSN and ISL. Most of the obstacles surrounded the ability to protect intellectual property and obtain an agreement which included all of the parties. At a high level, this report documents the interactions and attempt to develop a cooperative framework for explosives detection development from FY 2014 through FY 2020.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Post-explosion Evolution of Core-collapse Supernovae

Here we investigate the post-explosion phase in core-collapse supernovae with 2D hydrodynamical simulations and a simple neutrino treatment. The latter allows us to perform 46 simulations and follow the evolution of the 32 explosion models during several seconds. We present a broad study based on three progenitors (11.2, 15, and 27 M ⊙ ), different neutrino heating efficiencies, and various rotation rates. We show that the first seconds after shock revival determine the final explosion energy, remnant mass, and properties of ejected matter. Our results suggest that a continued mass accretion increases the explosion energy even at late times. We link the late-time mass accretion to initial conditions such as rotation strength and shock deformation at explosion time. Only some of our simulations develop a neutrino-driven wind (NDW) that survives for several seconds. This indicates that NDWs are not a standard feature expected after every successful explosion. Even if our neutrino treatment is simple, we estimate the nucleosynthesis of the exploding models for the 15 M ⊙ progenitor after correcting the neutrino energies and luminosities to get a more realistic electron fraction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Determining the source characteristics of explosions near the Earth's surface

We present a method to determine the source characteristics of explosions near the airearth interface. The technique is an extension of the regional amplitude envelope method and now accounts for the reduction of seismic amplitudes as the depth of the explosion approaches the free surface and less energy is coupled into the ground. We first apply the method to the Humming Roadrunner series of shallow explosions in New Mexico where the yields and depths are known. From these tests, we find an appreciation of knowing the material properties for both source coupling/excitation and the free surface effect. Although there is the expected tradeoff between depth and yield due to coupling effects, the estimated yields are generally close to the known values when the depth is constrained to the free surface. We then apply the method to a regionally recorded explosion in Syria. We estimate an explosive yield less than the 60 tons claimed by sources in the open press. The modifications to the method allow us to apply the technique to new classes of events, but we will need a better understanding of explosion source models and properties of additional geologic materials.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2011

Generation and characterization of nano tungsten oxide particles by wire explosion process

Nano tungsten oxide particles are produced by wire explosion process. It is realized that by exploding tungsten conductor in lower pressure of oxygen, unreacted phase of tungsten was present and it could be reduced by increasing the operating pressure and increasing the amount of energy deposited to the exploding conductor. It is realized that the nucleation rate of the particle could be high only at the point of maximum saturation ratio, irrespective of the pressure of the oxygen. The size of the critical nucleus formed is low when the saturation ratio and the nucleation rate are at maximum. The nano metal oxide particle formation by wire explosion process allows one to conclude that the second stage annealing process has a major impact on the final grain size formed. The high speed camera photographs of wire explosion process were used to understand the dynamics of particle formation by wire explosion process. The Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) analysis indicates that the nano tungsten oxide (WO{sub 3}) particles are of spherical shape and the analysis of particle size indicates that it follows log normal distribution. - Graphical Abstract: Nano tungsten oxide (WO{sub 3}) particles are produced by wire explosion process. Theoretical analysis indicates that the size of the critical nucleus formed is low when the saturation ratio and the nucleation rate are at maximum. High speed camera photographs of wire explosion process were used to understand the dynamics of particles formed. Research Highlights: {yields}Lower particle size is possible with lower pressure. {yields}Particle size is increased with reduced energy ratio. {yields}Unreacted tungsten content reduces when oxygen pressure increases.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Seismoacoustic Analysis of Chemical Explosions at the Nevada National Security Site

In recent years, two sets of chemical explosions have been conducted at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS): 6 explosions from Phase I of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) and 4 explosions from the Forensics Surface Events (FSE). We have estimated the explosive yield and depth-of-burial/height-of-burst of both from the synthesis of seismic and low-frequency acoustic data. Analysis of the seismic signal is performed using a waveform envelope technique. Using seismic data only, however, there is a tradeoff between the yield and depth or height of the explosion, which becomes especially acute for near-surface events. This tradeoff between yield and depth/height can be broken by including complementary analysis of the acoustic signal using the acoustic waveform inversion method. The acoustic signal also has a strong tradeoff between a yield and depth/height, but the slope is opposite that of the seismic for near-surface events. We use a likelihood function to combine the seismic and acoustic analysis and improve our estimates of yield and depth/height for these sets of explosions. The results are generally consistent with the known parameters, but can be improved upon by higher-frequency seismic analysis and improved acoustic impulse scaling for large scaled depths-of-burial. These events serve as prime examples of data fusion from multiple data streams. The challenge will be to apply the method to events at longer regional distances where the seismic signals will include phases traveling in the upper mantle, and the acoustic signals will be recorded as infrasound signals, which are subject to atmospheric variability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Joint Bayesian Inference for Near-Surface Explosion Yield and Height-of-Burst

Forensic capabilities to understand chemical and nuclear explosions are greatly aided by an accurate estimate of explosive yield with uncertainty. The relationship between explosive size and geophysical observations of seismic, acoustic, and optical waves can be exploited to provide an estimate of yield. Any near-surface yield estimate is complicated by the surface interaction, so an estimate for the explosion height-of-burst is necessarily included in the relationship. Additionally, the relationship dictates a trade-off between estimates of yield and height-of-burst. Fortunately, the surface interaction for each type of observation is different, which breaks the trade-off, and the inclusion of height-of-burst with multiple data types improves yield estimation. We define simple parametric forward models to relate seismoäcoustoöptic observations from a data set of known explosive yields and height-of-bursts. The parameters of the models and a prediction for the yield and height-of-burst of a new event can then be estimated given new observations via Bayesian inference. We report posterior distribution estimates of the parametric models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. These models are then used to predict the yield and height-of-burst of SUGAR, a historical near-surface nuclear explosion, using its reported historical observations. The reported yield of 1.2 ktonne Trinitrotoluene (TNT)-equivalent (Department of Energy, 2015) is within the estimated posterior. Yield uncertainty can be estimated from the spread of the posterior, which is between 0.9 and 2.1 ktonne TNT-equivalent. The posterior for height-of-burst has a wider range between 10 m below and 8 m above ground that includes the true height-of-burst of 1 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗