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At least 199 records · Page 11

Theory and simulations of linear and nonlinear two-dimensional Rayleigh–Taylor dynamics with variable acceleration

Interfacial Rayleigh–Taylor mixing is crucial to describing important natural and engineering processes, such as exploding supernovae, laser micromachining, hot spots in inertial confinement fusion, and optical telecommunications. These require the characterization of the time dependence of the driving acceleration. We compare our theoretical formulation based on group theory foundations with interface-capturing numerical simulations for linear and nonlinear two-dimensional Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities in a finite-sized domain with time-varying acceleration over broad ranges of Atwood numbers and acceleration exponents. Detailed corroboration between theory and simulations is provided for this foundational case. Both demonstrate the strong interfacial nature of Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities, which suggests that practical flow fields can be reconstructed from the derived fluid potential using the proposed theory. A robust agreement is also obtained for the early and late-time evolution of the amplitudes of the bubble and spike, which demonstrate that the Rayleigh–Taylor flow can transition to the mixing regime even for a single-mode initial perturbation. Corroboration with experiments of high energy density plasmas motivated by studies of supernovae is also achieved. In addition, a long-standing puzzle in Rayleigh–Taylor dynamics on the interplay between the acceleration, the shear, and the interface morphology in the theory and simulations is resolved by accounting for finite viscosity of the fluids. The characterization of Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities as a highly interfacial phenomenon provides valuable insight into its multiscale nature, which enhances the design and understanding of numerous processes of practical interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Verification and Validation of MFiX-PIC

This work is aimed at verification and validation (V&V) of particle-in-cell (PIC) approach in the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX-PIC) which was officially released in April 2019. Under verification, the results from MFiX-PIC are compared with exact or analytical solutions, while experimental results are used for benchmarking under validation. The test suite consists of the following cases: Terminal velocity. Particle advection in time-varying flow field. Particle settling in a dense medium. Evaporation. Rayleigh-Taylor instability. Minimum fluidization. Mini-circulating fluidized bed. The cases reported in a format consistent with the existing Verification and Validation Manual (Musser et al., 2018) explore a wide range of flow velocities and concentration regimes. Only one case considered in this work verifies the implementation of heat and mass transfer routines in MFiX-PIC, while a few other studies are currently underway to further expand the validation space in reacting flows. This study highlights the need for a rigorous analysis to objectively quantify the effect of model parameters. In addition, there is a scarcity of high-quality experimental data in the literature suitable for validating PIC methodology. Future efforts would include performing experiments which provide results for a valuable database. While designing such experiments, particle count should be significant to have sufficient particles per parcel while maintaining an optimal parcel to cell volume ratio. Also, datasets should have objectively assessed experimental uncertainty whereby confidence interval in those measurements become more explicit.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Implications of Shear and Thermal Stratification on Wind Turbine Tip-Vortex Stability

The interaction between wind turbines in a wind farm through their wakes is a phenomenon that has been studied for decades and is still relevant today. Turbines clustered together in arrays will often operate in the wake of other upstream turbines which may lead to significant power losses and fatigue loads. For modern large-scale wind turbines, the mean shear velocity profile and thermal stratification are major components of the atmospheric boundary layer so it is important to understand their impact on near-wake development. Additionally, veer is present due to the rotation of the Earth. The impact of shear, thermal stratification and veer on the stable wake length of turbines with a dynamic control strategy is studied numerically in this work using a suite of highly resolved large-eddy simulations. Instantaneous flow fields are extracted from the simulations and used to conduct proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and compute the mean kinetic energy fluxes by different POD modes to better understand the tip-vortex instability mechanisms. Our findings show that the dynamic pitch control scheme is able to shorten the stable wake length to about 1.5R in uniform flow. Shear can significantly affect the break up of wind turbine tip-vortices as well as the shape and stable length of the wake, whereas thermal stratification seems to only have limited contribution to the spatial development of the near-wake field. Veer causes the wake boundary to skew but has a limited impact on the wake length.

length thermal stratification↗

Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of the AFIP-7 Irradiation Test in the Advanced Test Reactor - Oxide Growth Prediction and Correlation

Knowing the thickness of the oxide layer on the surface of aluminum fuel cladding is vitally important for predicting fuel temperature due to the low thermal conductivity of the oxide layer. Several correlation models for predicting oxide growth can be found in the literature. In previous research, the correlations were combined with heat transfer simulations in Abaqus, a finite element analysis code, to forecast the oxide growth. However, this approach requires heat transfer coefficients for modeling heat exchanges with the external flow field, and such coefficients were obtained through empirical equations. Since different empirical equations yield varying heat transfer coefficients, the cladding temperature and predicted oxide thickness both carry a high degree of uncertainty. Here, this research develops a new approach that integrates the fluid flow, fluid and solid heat transfer, and oxide growth correlation(s) into a single computational fluid dynamics model. We demonstrate this approach’s ability to predict oxide development on the AFIP-7 plates during two Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) irradiation cycles. The projected oxide thickness falls within the experimental measurements taken during post irradiation examination.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multi-fidelity parametric sensitivity estimation for large eddy simulation with the Spalart–Allmaras model

A computationally affordable approach to estimate parametric sensitivities of engineering relevant quantities of interest for a large eddy simulation (LES) is explored. The method is based on defining a Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) problem that is constrained to reproduce the LES mean flow field. Here, the proposed method is described and assessed for a shock/boundary layer interaction problem, where the shock angle and wall temperature are considered variable or uncertain. In the current work, we show that the proposed method offers improved sensitivity predictions for certain flow features as compared to standalone RANS simulations, while using a fraction of the LES cost.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Wind Loading on CSP Collectors

The project significantly enhanced the community's understanding of the fundamental physics drivers underlying the wind-loading experienced by concentrating solar power (CSP) collector structures (i.e., parabolic troughs and heliostats) as well as their support structures. This project had two overarching objectives: (1) detailed measurements to characterize the prevailing wind conditions and resulting operational loads on collector structures, and (2) development and validation of a computationally efficient, high-fidelity modeling tool capable of predicting wind-loading in deep-array installations. Over three years, we conducted comprehensive at-scale field measurements of the atmospheric turbulent wind conditions, and the resulting wind loads on parabolic troughs and heliostats. Two at-scale measurement campaigns yielded first-of-its-kind, high-resolution, long-term datasets that are used to characterize the complex flow field and wind loading on parabolic-troughs and heliostats in operational power plants. The high-resolution measurements collected during these campaigns were used to validate the high-fidelity computational models developed at NREL. These open-source computationally efficient models were shown to be accurate in predicting wind-driven loads on collectors without the need for a large supercomputer.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Analysis of ducted fuel injection at high-pressure transcritical conditions using large-eddy simulations

Ducted fuel injection (DFI) is a proposed fuel injection concept for achieving substantial reductions in emissions. In this concept, the fuel is injected through a coannular duct, resulting in increased fuel-air mixing and minimized formation of soot and other unwanted combustion products. Apart from comprehensive experimental investigations on DFI, so far computational studies have been limited to single-point Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes simulations. Therefore, the objective of this work is to complement these studies by performing large-eddy simulations using a diffuse-interface method to examine the physical mechanisms and combustion processes of DFI, specifically focusing on the mixing process and the effect of fuel-ducting on combustion and pollutant emissions. To this end, finite-rate chemistry simulations are performed of the DFI configuration corresponding to the Engine Combustion Network Spray A injector at transcritical conditions (n-dodecane fuel, 60 bar pressure and 1000 K temperature chamber conditions). A two-equation soot model is employed for the qualitative analysis of soot emissions. Direct comparisons of averaged and instantaneous flow field results with the Spray A configuration are performed to assess the effect of DFI on the first- and second-stage ignition and soot formation. Compared to the free-spray condition, the results show that the DFI case exhibits a combination of (i) increased mass flow rate and entrained air, (ii) larger pressure drop magnitude and flow velocity, and (iii) a closer-to-stoichiometric mixture composition (both globally and locally), each of which is conjectured to contribute toward reduced soot production.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Vadose and Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Package Report for the Active Trenches of the Low-Level Burial Grounds, Hanford Site, Washington

This model package report (MPR) documents the development of the integrated vadose and saturated zone flow and transport model developed for the performance assessment of Trenches 31 and 34 in the low-level burial grounds (LLBGs). This modeling capability is intended for use in addressing the analysis requirements outlined in DOE O 435.1, Chg 1, Radioactive Waste Management1. The overall objective of the modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed disposal decisions pertinent to Trenches 31 and 34. The purpose of the MPR is to document the development of the three-dimensional numerical vadose zone and saturated flow and transport model test case and evaluate its adequacy to support the LLBG performance assessment. The purpose is not to present results for DOE 435.1 decision making. The use of the model to perform base case and sensitivity analysis for the LLBG performance assessment, including inputs and results, is documented separately in subsequent environmental calculation files. This report discusses the development and translation of the conceptual model for flow and contaminant transport into the LLBG performance assessment three-dimensional numerical flow and transport model evaluated using the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP©) simulator. The development of representative geologic framework is described along with the implementation of waste release models used to represent contaminant release from waste disposed in the trenches. The report also provides the technical basis for specific model parameters and boundary conditions, along with description of modeling assumptions. This MPR includes certain calculations that are necessary to demonstrate the soundness of the model. Results provided by the model include vadose zone and saturated zone flow fields, and estimates of the possible future concentration in groundwater of technetium-99 and iodine-129 as example test cases. As an evaluation of the test cases, the model estimates of current vadose conditions are compared to available and analogous field and laboratory data, and compared to the results from the original performance assessment model (WHC-EP-0645, Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds 2 ). The features, events, and processes applicable to vadose zone and saturated zone flow and transport model are identified, and representative initial estimates for various parameters are documented. Note that the parameter estimates presented in this MPR are for illustration purposes, and may or may not reflect values selected for eventual performance assessment. Several key topical discussions (i.e., basis for recharge estimates, basis for vadose zone modeling, basis for saturated zone model development, and calibration) are included, which serve as the groundwork for confidence building for the groundwater pathway modeling and results. Numerical simulation results based on an example test case are included to illustrate the use of the combined saturated-unsaturated model in performance assessment calculations. Sensitivity and uncertainty results are not included in this MPR. Those results will be included in future environmental calculation files. The inclusion of the trapezoidal trench geometry and construction details in the finite difference grid introduces some gross simplifications regarding the trench and liner systems. The model test case presented in this MPR includes the assumption that the trench liner system does not affect flow through or around the trenches after the liner system is assumed to fail. This MPR also includes results of other test cases that involve alternate assumptions about how to incorporate the hydraulic effects of the trenches into the vadose zone of the model. These alternate cases do not attempt to account for the presence of the liner system after its assumed failure either. None of these cases is considered to be the base case at this time. Analysis and alternate cases that attempt to account for the presence of the liner system in greater detail, and its effect on flow through and around it, are to be documented in subsequent environmental calculation files. Depending on the results of those analyses and alternate cases, the eventual base case may involve more detailed inclusion of the effects of the liner system hydraulics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Short-term wind forecasting using statistical models with a fully observable wind flow

The utility of model output data from the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is explored for very short-term forecasting (5-30 minutes horizon) of wind speed to be used in large scale simulations of an autonomous electric power grid. Using this synthetic data for the development and evaluation of short-term forecasting algorithms offer many unique advantages over observational data, such as the ability to observe the full wind flow field in the surrounding region. Several short-term forecasting algorithms are implemented and evaluated using the synthetic data at several different time horizons and for three different geographic locations. Comparison is made with observational data from one location. We find that short-term forecasts of the synthetic data considering wind flow from the surrounding region perform 26% better than persistence in terms of root mean square error at the 5-minute time horizon. This improvement is comparable to studies of observational data in the literature. These results provide motivation to use synthetic data for short term forecasting in grid simulations, and open the door to future algorithmic improvements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The liquid-conduction, vapor-flow heat pipe model in Sockeye

A single-phase heat pipe flow model implemented in the heat pipe application Sockeye is described. This model solves one-dimensional, compressible flow equations for the vapor phase in the center of a heat pipe, which are coupled to the two-dimensional heat conduction equation for the wick, liquid, and cladding, as well as to an ordinary differential equation tracking the working fluid inventory in the evaporator section of the heat pipe. This model is demonstrated with several test problems, including comparisons to analytic solutions for the vapor flow fields, analytic curves for sonic and capillary limitations of heat pipe operation, and some experimental data. The numerical solution gives excellent agreement for verification problems and good agreement with experimental results. Also, demonstrations show that the model is very robust, allowing for full simulations of heat pipe transients, including frozen startup, sonic-limited (supersonic) flow, and heat pipe shutdown.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Spatially Local Surrogate Modeling of Subgrid-Scale Effects in Idealized Atmospheric Flows: A Deep Learned Approach Using High-Resolution Simulation Data

Abstract We introduce a machine learned surrogate model from high-resolution simulation data to capture the subgrid-scale effects in dry, stratified atmospheric flows. We use deep neural networks (NNs) to model the spatially local state differences between a coarse-resolution simulation and a high-resolution simulation. The setup enables the capture of both dissipative and antidissipative effects in the state differences. The NN model is able to accurately capture the state differences in offline tests outside the training regime. In online tests intended for production use, the NN-coupled coarse simulation has higher accuracy over a significant period of time compared to the coarse-resolution simulation without any correction. We provide evidence of the capability of the NN model to accurately capture high-gradient regions in the flow field. With the accumulation of the errors, the NN-coupled simulation becomes computationally unstable after approximately 90 coarse simulation time steps. Insights gained from these surrogate models further pave the way for formulating stable, complex, physics-based spatially local NN models which are driven by traditional subgrid-scale turbulence closure models. Significance Statement Flows in the atmosphere are highly chaotic and turbulent, comprising flow structures of broad scales. For effective computational modeling of atmospheric flows, the effects of the small- and large-scale structures need to be captured by the simulations. Capturing the small-scale structures requires fine-resolution simulations. Even with the current state-of-the-art supercomputers, it can be prohibitively expensive to simulate these flows when computed for the entire earth over climate time scales. Thus, it is necessary to focus on the larger-scale structures using a coarse-resolution simulation while capturing the effects of the smaller-scale structures using some parameterization (approximation) scheme and incorporating it into the coarse-resolution simulation. We use machine learning to model the effects of the small-scale structures (subgrid-scale effects) in atmospheric flows. Data from a fine-resolution simulation is used to compute the missing subgrid-scale effects in coarse-resolution simulations. We then use machine learning models to approximate these differences between the coarse- and fine-resolution simulations. We see improved accuracy for the coarse-resolution simulations when corrected using these machine learned models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Hydrology and Interim Measure Performance in the Chromium Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20498

Hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), is present in the regional aquifer beneath Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) at concentrations greater than the New Mexico groundwater standard (50 ppb). The source of the Cr is blowdown from a power plant where potassium dichromate was used as a corrosion inhibitor from 1956 to 1972. Blowdown comingled with effluent from another source and migrated approximately 3 miles down a canyon, primarily as surface flow, until reaching an alluvial infiltration zone. The infiltrating water moved vertically through a thick (approximately 900 ft), complex stratigraphic sequence of unsaturated tuffs, basalt, and unconsolidated alluvial deposits. Horizontal transport also took place within spatially limited perched groundwater horizons in the vadose zone (VZ). Breakthrough at the regional aquifer water table is thought to have occurred in multiple hydraulic windows or 'drip points' located approximately 3 miles from the initial release site at the power plant. The regional aquifer is highly heterogeneous and anisotropic, and displays unconfined behavior in an upper zone and confined behavior at depth. The Cr(VI) contamination has so far remained confined to the upper approximately 25 m of the aquifer. The ambient hydraulic gradient in the regional aquifer is toward the east/southeast, but the water table is extremely flat in the Cr plume area compared to surrounding areas. There is some local variability in flow direction, potentially related to effects of seasonal pumping from nearby Los Alamos county water-supply wells, which draw from the regional aquifer several hundred feet below the water table. An interim measure (IM) is currently operating at the site to achieve hydraulic control of plume migration using a series of extraction wells, ion-exchange treatment, and injection along the downgradient portion of the plume. The migration of Cr contamination in the aquifer has been previously evaluated using a calibrated probabilistic numerical model, which has also been used to design the spatial configuration of extraction and injection wells for the IM, and to identify locations for monitoring wells. The model is built using the Finite Element Heat and Mass (FEHM) transfer code, and the Model Analysis and Decision Support (MADS) software is used for analyses. To date, the portion of the IM system that has operated in a continuous manner has been very effective at hydraulic control. Modifications to the flow field associated with the influence of IM pumping and injection are evaluated here, with modeling constraints to be provided by recent observations of tracers injected into both monitoring wells and IM injection wells, as well as opportunistic observations of geochemical signatures of treated ion-exchange effluent injected into IM injection wells. The tracer and geochemical data provide insights into modified flow directions within the Cr plume area that cannot be otherwise obtained. Results of the modeling work are being used to inform adaptive management of IM operations and will be a valuable tool for development and refinement of long-term remediation strategies. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Density variance dynamics in disparate shock tubes

This report discusses two experiments which investigate thin layer, heavy curtain fragmentation from the perspective of a Reynolds-Averaged mix model, in drastically disparate experimental regimes. The first, the centimeter/millisecond-scale “Horizontal Shock Tube” (HST) is a compressed-gas piston-driven shock tube experiment. The second, the “Multishock thin layer” (Mshock) experiment performed at the National Ignition Facility, is a micrometer/nanosecond-scale laser-driven shock tube experiment. Both are situations in which a heavy plane layer (a ‘curtain’) is initially suspended in a lighter medium. After being shocked from at least one side, the layer translates while its interfaces evolve due to the excitation of the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability at its surfaces. The evolution of density variance, which initially exists only on the surface of the layer, as it comes to encompass the whole layer interior is used as a description of layer fragmentation and dissolution. These experiments have each been simulated in the Los Alamos National Laboratory multi-physics code xRAGE, which includes fundamental hydrodynamics, extended plasma physics and radiation effects which are important to drive the high-energy density experiment, and the Besnard-Harlow-Rauenzahn (BHR) turbulence model. In each, the principal diagnostic for comparison is an experimental metric for the density (co)variance, b, which tracks the moments of the density field at the curtain interfaces and body. Due to experimental constraints in different regimes (i.e. optical diagnostics can be deployed on conventional shock tubes, while the plasma shock tubes must be imaged by x-rays; interfaces can be imposed to specification on laser-driven experiments, which are stored in the solid phase, while conventional experiments have imperfect control of the flow fields which separate the layer, etc.) the experiments are not designed to be perfect scaled cognates of one another. However, despite the separation of six orders of magnitude of scaling in time, and four in space, we are able to demonstrate that the same turbulence model, operating in the same fashion in the same computer code, is able to reproduce results in each experiment, by tracking evolution due to common relevant physics. Additionally, we will present preliminary work toward density variance comparisons in a single-interface Richtmyer-Meshkov configuration, the conventional fluid “Vertical Shock Tube” (VST) experiment, and the Modal Initial Conditions (ModCons) campaign fielded at the OMEGA-EP laser facility.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Internally manifolded flow cell for an all-iron hybrid flow battery

In one example, a system for a flow cell for a flow battery, comprising: a first flow field; and a polymeric frame, comprising: a top face; a bottom face, opposite the top face; a first side; a second side, opposite the first side; a first electrolyte inlet located on the top face and the first side of the polymeric frame; a first electrolyte outlet located on the top face and the second side of the polymeric frame; a first electrolyte inlet flow path located within the polymeric frame and coupled to the first electrolyte inlet; and a first electrolyte outlet flow path located within the polymeric frame and coupled to the first electrolyte outlet. In this way, shunt currents may be minimized by increasing the length and/or reducing the cross-sectional area of the electrolyte inlet and electrolyte outlet flow paths.

Evans, Craig↗

Internally manifolded flow cell for an all-iron hybrid flow battery

In one example, a system for a flow cell for a flow battery, comprising: a first flow field; and a polymeric frame, comprising: a top face; a bottom face, opposite the top face; a first side; a second side, opposite the first side; a first electrolyte inlet located on the top face and the first side of the polymeric frame; a first electrolyte outlet located on the top face and the second side of the polymeric frame; a first electrolyte inlet flow path located within the polymeric frame and coupled to the first electrolyte inlet; and a first electrolyte outlet flow path located within the polymeric frame and coupled to the first electrolyte outlet. In this way, shunt currents may be minimized by increasing the length and/or reducing the cross-sectional area of the electrolyte inlet and electrolyte outlet flow paths.

Evans, Craig↗

Heat Transfer Experiments of a 1st Stage Blade Cascade for Supercritical CO2 Oxy-Combustion Turbine Application

The results of internally cooled 1st stage blade (S1B) cascade testing in a supercritical CO2 environment is presented. The turbine blade design has been previously established for the end application of an oxy-combustion turbine operating in the Allam-Fetvedt cycle with turbine inlet conditions of 305 bar and 1150°C. The internally cooled blade features leading edge (LE) region impingement cooling, mid-section ribbed serpentine passages, and a pin-finned trailing edge (TE) region before cooling ejection holes. The geometry for the tested blade cascade has a cooled central blade with un-cooled blades on either side to match flowpath areas of the actual turbine. The flowpath reuses internal components previously employed for mid-section region ribbed serpentine passage experiments that established Nusselt number enhancement ratios over a range of Reynolds numbers from 100,000-400,000. New components include flow conditioning plates upstream and downstream of the blade cascade to adequately represent the flow field and blade external heat transfer coefficient profiles for the actual turbine. The cooled central blade utilizes uniform crystal temperature sensors (UCTS) with six sensors each on the blade pressure and suction surfaces distributed radially and from LE to TE. The post-processed UCTS quantified the maximum wall temperature seen at each installed sensor location. The test procedure consisted of establishing supercritical CO2 cooling flow temperature and flow rate and maintaining it throughout the test. The flow rate aims to match that for the actual in-service turbine blade design and is maintained through an orifice restriction to keep the pressure differential between internal cooling flow and external hot flow nearly constant. For the sCO2 flow path external to the blade, temperatures were ramped throughout the test via control of the test loop’s natural gas burner heater. The maximum temperature seen was 468°C and held constant for a duration of 10 minutes at which the blade metal temperature was predicted to be at its maximum before ramping down. For the turbine blade design for service inlet conditions, external flow path computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results and an internal cooling 1-D thermal and hydraulic flow network model using experimentally validated correlations served as thermal finite element (FE) boundary conditions to predict blade metal temperatures. These predicted temperatures were subsequently utilized in a structural FE model to predict blade life ratings dictated by Haynes 282 creep strength data, having a strong dependence on temperature. The boundary conditions experienced during testing are used in the same workflow and compared to the experimental results, with the goal of validating the analysis methodology and providing insight on the uncertainty in local metal temperature predictions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Influence of the Soret effect on binary-species boundary layers at high pressure

Direct numerical simulations of binary-species temporal boundary layers at high pressure are performed. The main objective is to investigate the influence of the Soret effect on flow physics of binary-species boundary layers where the fluid has a uniform composition. The working fluid is a mixture of 25 % methane and 75 % nitrogen in mass fraction. Although the fluid composition is uniform at the initial condition, the mass fraction of methane increases near the wall when the wall temperature is hotter than the free stream temperature, whereas it decreases when the wall temperature is colder. The non-uniform mass fraction indicates that the uphill diffusion occurs near the wall. Investigation of fluctuations of the mass fraction reveals that the mass fraction fluctuates in the whole boundary layer, indicating that the uphill diffusion occurs even far from the wall. Examination of the species-mass diffusion balance for mean flow fields clarified that the Soret effect flux becomes large near the wall, and the large flux causes the non-uniform profile of the mass fraction near the wall.

Binary Diffusion Coefficient↗

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗