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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Storage Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) is a fundamental component in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to increase the plant's dispatchability, capacity factor, while reducing the levelized cost of electricity. In central receivers CSP plants, nitrate molten salts have been used for several years for operation temperatures of up to 565 degrees C. Despite many efforts to advance nitrate salt to higher operation temperatures (even considering a replacement with molten chloride salts) to achieve higher energy conversion efficiencies, the 565 degrees C temperature is currently considered the state-of-the art. Although molten salt tanks have been broadly deployed in commercial CSP plants worldwide, several failures have been reported in these tanks after a few months or years of operation, causing significant economic loss and mistrust in CSP technologies. Most of these failures are associated with the infancy of the technology and multiple issues related to tank design, fabrication, commissioning, and aggressive operation. A technical standard dedicated to the design and fabrication of molten nitrate TES tanks does not exist today. Current in-service molten salt tanks have been generally designed based on the American Petroleum Institute's (API) 650 and ASME Section II standards. The API 650 code provides guidelines for dimensions and fabrication for oil storage tanks up to 260 degrees C. The ASME standard provides allowable stress values for various materials at a range of temperatures and conditions. Both standards seem to be limited for molten salt TES tanks where high temperatures, thermal cycling, and transient conditions are expected. In 2020, NREL released the Concentrating Solar Power Best Practices Study (NREL/TP-5500-75763) that summarized multiple issues in CSP plants, along with potential alternatives and recommendations to address those issues based on information collected from participants representing about 80% of operating CSP plants in the world. One of the recommendations from this study was the development of accurate and validated models to evaluate the plant's transient operation, capable of capturing the effect of short-term clouds and operator response, while being flexible in being adapted to various spatial and temporal resource data. The "Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants" project was inspired on this recommendation and was focused on (1) the development and validation of a physics-based model for a representative, commercial-scale molten salt tank, (2) performing simulations to evaluate the behavior of the tank as a function of typical plant operation conditions, (3) understanding tank failures mechanisms, (4) determining the residual stress and distortion in the tank floor after welding fabrication and evaluating their impact in the stresses developed in the tank during operation, (5) assessing the impact of key operation parameters on the temperature and stress distribution, (6) conduct a preliminary evaluation of design features to reduce stress and improve tank's reliability, and (7) estimate the tank's service life based on the stress developed under diverse operation scenarios. From the analysis conducted in the project and presented in this report, it was found that maximum stresses surpassing the yield strength point of the stainless steel (SS) 347H are developed on the tank floor near the perimeter. These large stresses are strongly influenced by the initial residual stresses and distortion of the tank floor after welding fabrication. During operation, large stresses are developed in the tank floor at high operation temperatures with large salt inventory levels during transient operation. High stresses are also related to elevated temperature gradients in the tank floor that could be attributed to insufficient mixing within the salt inflow and the salt inventory. Based on the analysis, creep is the predominant failure mechanism. However, the large stress levels could favor the plastic deformation into buckles, and crack formation due to stress relaxation cracking during cycle operation. A lifetime below 3 years was estimated for the typical plant operation conditions and a specific initial residual stress and deformation distribution of the tank floor. The estimated life agrees with the service time to failure reported in several commercial molten salt tanks. Desing and operation guidelines can be extracted from the analysis presented in this report, which could be adopted by tank manufacturers and CSP operators to advance toward an ultimate solution for tank failures by reducing residual and operational stresses to achieve a tank service life of more than 30 years. Addressing failures in molten salt TES tanks is fundamental for the CSP industry's survivability, but it is also important for other industrial and power generation applications using this technology, including nuclear and concentrating solar thermal.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing Potential Failures and Effects in a Pilot-Scale Biomass Preprocessing Facility for Improved Reliability

This study demonstrates a failure identification methodology applied to a preprocessing facility generating conversion-ready feedstocks from biomass meeting conversion process critical quality attribute (CQA) specifications. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) was used as an industrially relevant risk analysis approach to evaluate a logging residue preprocessing system to prepare feedstock for pyrolysis conversion. Risk evaluations considered both system-level and operation unit-level assessments considering process efficiency, product quality, cost, sustainability, and safety. Key outputs included estimations of semi-quantitative risk scores for each failure, identification of the failure impacts, identification of failure causes associated with material attributes and process parameters, ranking success rates of failure detection methods, and speculation of potential mitigation strategies for decreasing failure risk scores. Results showed that deviations from moisture specifications had cascading consequences for other CQAs along with process safety implications. Failures linked to fixed carbon specifications carried the highest risk scores for product quality and process efficiency impacts. As increased throughput can be inversely related to meeting product quality specifications; achieving throughput and other material-based CQAs simultaneously will likely require system optimization or prioritization based on system economics. Ultimately, this work successfully demonstrates FMEA as a risk analysis approach for other bioenergy process systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2020

Progressive Failure Analysis Correlation with Notched Composite Laminate Test Data

Testing of small and intermediate laminate panels with notches was performed and Progressive Failure Analyses (PFA) models were developed for aid in test planning and for correlation with the test data. Two progressive damage failure models were included in the study: the commercially available Abaqus built-in damage model and COmplete STress Reduction (COSTR) damage model developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The finite elements models used for the analysis were developed using shell elements. The pre-test PFA results obtained from the two damage models were compared to test data. Then a post-test PFA with updated material properties based on additional available material property data was executed with the COSTR damage model and compared to the test data. The panels tested in compression all exhibited less scatter in the failure load with self-similar failure behavior. The panels tested in tension exhibited more scatter in the failure load with a failure mode that included delamination of plies. However, a self-similar crack path was also observed as the overall failure mode for all panels tested. When comparing test data to the pre-test analysis results, both damage models with shell element models were considered adequate for predicting the behavior and failure load of both the small and intermediate panels when tested in compression. However, for the tension load cases, larger differences were observed between the test and analysis results. When comparing test data to the post-test analysis performed using the COSTR damage model, better correlation was observed. However, large discrepancies were still observed for the tension load cases. Consequently, a higher fidelity finite element model including solid elements for sub-laminates and the modeling of cohesive layers between sub-laminate layers is recommended for tension loading of notched composite laminates.

Damage Model,Progressive Failure Analysis,Open Hol↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiscale Prediction of Yarn Pullout Failure Mode in Unreinforced Textile Fabrics

Unreinforced woven fabrics have been implemented in a variety of high performance applications, including body armor, deployable structures, and as the reinforcement material in composites. Multiscale modeling techniques have significantly improved the capabilities of simulation-based tools to capture fabric mechanics efficiently and accurately, but often lack in their prediction of failure and require pairing with finite element analysis (FEA) software, limiting their application to the design of ‘fit-for-purpose’ materials. NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) is a standalone multiscale program that has been traditionally used in the analysis of reinforced composites materials. More recently, it has been amended to simulate unreinforced fabric behavior by allowing the geometric state of the tows to change with applied loading due to the lack of a reinforcement material, such as the matrix seen in composites. Previous work has shown the ability of NASMAT to capture nonlinear macroscale behavior by predicting geometric changes in the state of each subcell as a function of the applied loading and allowing each subcell in the analysis to rotate according to these predicted changes, as well as predict nonlinear behavior due to the fiber breakage failure mode. In this work, the capability of predicting the onset and propagation of failure in plain woven fabrics in NASMAT is presented for the yarn pullout failure mode, which occurs when a fabric is loaded at an off-axis angle relative to the warp of weft tow direction. Yarn pullout behavior is initiated by determining the applied load in which the shear resistance of the contact area between yarn families is overcome. When failure is initiated, yarn pullout is determined to have occurred when the applied displacement, calculated from global strain, exceeds the deformed position of a given contact points between yarn families, determined from pin-joint kinematics. Contact points where pullout has occurred contribute to a global damage parameter used to modify the homogenized stiffness of the fabric, resulting in nonlinear behavior observed at the macroscale. The off-axis loading behavior and yarn pullout failure theory have been developed and implemented into NASMAT such that users can simulate off-axis tensile behavior of fabrics in a single, standalone multiscale tool. Simulations are compared to uniaxial tensile tests at various off-axis angles to demonstrate the capability of the tool in its prediction of both the onset of failure at each off-axis angles and the stress-strain behavior as failure progresses.

Materials↗
DOE OSTI2020

Void coalescence and ductile failure in IN718 investigated via high-energy synchrotron X-ray tomography and diffraction

Ductile failure through the growth and coalescence of voids is of particular relevance for many engineering materials. Yet, the lack of experimental measurements of the mechanical state of the material at an appropriate length scale has limited further understanding of the regime of ductile failure. In this study, local grain-scale experimental measurements are used to determine their relevance for describing and predicting ductile failure. Additive manufactured materials, due to the presence of inherent porosity, as well as the ability to tailor internal porosity, provides a promising avenue to study ductile failure. Selective laser melting is used to manufacture a specially designed specimen with two large, internal voids, in addition to the natural porosity, which is characteristic to the production process. The initial porosity and its evolution upon tensile loading are characterized via micro tomography. Several locations of void coalescence are captured in the sample, revealing activity of multiple modes of failure. Finite element simulations, with a simplified J2 plasticity model, instantiated with the initial void structure, is deployed, in which geometric localizations of stress concentration corresponded with experimentally observed sites of coalescence but was inadequate in capturing the appropriate failure mechanism. Furthermore, from the experimental results of the far-field high-energy diffraction microscopy, the heterogeneous micromechanical state is identified and tracked around voids due to the local grain interactions. These experiments determine narrow bands of low stress triaxiality, at the onset of failure, which highlight the path of coalescence through intervoid shearing. Diffraction spot spreading analysis aided characterization of intragranular plasticity and strain heterogeneity, which can be coupled with high triaxiality to form the conditions inducive for coalescence through intervoid necking. In this study, the experimentally determined grain-scale description of the micromechanical state provides a physical basis that can accurately capture both the sites and the mechanism of void coalescence at the onset of ductile failure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Emergence of Diverse Failure Patterns in Weathering‐Induced Landslides: Insights From Particle Finite Element Simulations

Weathering is a fundamental driver of landslide evolution over geological timescales. Despite its ubiquity and importance, quantifying how weathering drives the progressive destabilization of rock slopes remains challenging. In this work, we develop a unified computational framework based on the particle finite element method to investigate the evolution of weathering‐induced landslides, from long‐term weathering to short‐term slope failure and runout dynamics. The framework integrates key processes, including weathering front propagation, time‐dependent strength degradation, rupture surface development, and post‐failure runout dynamics. Through numerical simulation experiments, we elucidate how interactions among weathering characteristics (type, intensity, and rate law), bedrock strength, fracture distribution, and slope geometry govern the failure modes and kinematics of weathering‐induced landslides. Simulations show that matrix‐dominated weathering leads to shallow translational failures, whereas fracture‐dominated weathering produces deep‐seated rotational and compound landslides. Pre‐existing fractures and slope morphology also strongly influence the movement of destabilized landmasses, affecting the failure pattern (e.g., kinematic mode and rupture surface geometry) and post‐failure behavior (e.g., runout velocity). We further demonstrate that the failure time and volume of weathered slopes are governed by the competition between gravitational driving forces and cohesive resisting forces during progressive destabilization. These findings provide new insights into the fundamental mechanisms that drive the emergence of diverse failure patterns of weathering‐induced landslides with important implications for landslide hazard assessment.

Wang, Liang [Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this work was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Holistic Measurement Driven Resilience: Combining Operational Fault and Failure Measurements and Fault Injection for Quantifying Fault Detection, Propagation and Impact. Final report

For HPC systems to date, application resilience to faults and failures has been accomplished by the brute- force method of checkpoint/restart, which allows an application to make forward progress in the face of system and application faults, errors, and failures independent of root cause or end result. It has remained the primary resilience mechanism because we lack a way to identify faults and anticipate consequences early enough to take meaningful mitigating action. However, checkpoint/restart implementations put a tremendous burden on system resources and on the applications themselves and is becoming less feasible at scale. Because we have not yet operated at scales at which checkpoint/restart fails to provide forward progress, despite increasing costs, vendors have had little motivation to provide the instrumentation necessary for early identification of faults and failures. However, as we move from petascale to exascale, component mean time to failure (MTTF) will render the existing techniques ineffectual and/or too expensive. Furthermore, fault recovery mechanisms such as failover and/or error correction introduce performance inconsistency. Instrumentation allowing early indication of problems and tools to enable use of such information by systems, operating systems, and applications offer an alternative, more scalable and less costly solution. In the HMDR project, we built on our experience and expertise developed and accumulated over years of research on design, monitoring, measurement, and assessment of resilient computing systems. Analysis of field data on the current and past generations of extreme-scale systems revealed several challenges that, if not addressed in increasingly larger and more complex systems, may hinder the effectiveness of future exascale computing systems. Specifically, i) file systems and interconnects in current-generation large-scale systems already operate at the margins of resiliency, including consistent performance, and may not scale to larger deployments; ii) automated, software-based failover mechanisms are frequently inadequate and can introduce wider failures, such that failures during recovery may lead to system/application failures, including system-wide outages; and iii) silent data corruption represents a critical fault mode and will require efficient detection mechanisms if next-generation applications are to take full advantage of exascale hardware. To address the above challenges, we assembled a team of world-renowned experts in resilient extreme- scale computing from the University of Illinois (Electrical and Computer Engineering, Computer Science, and NCSA), SNL, LANL, NERSC, and Cray. Our team includes representatives from centers that house many of the largest HPC resources in the world, both today and over the coming years. The team has a unique track record of research in i) system and application failure characterization based on the analysis of field data, ii) data-driven design of fault/error detection mechanisms, and iii) experimental characterization of system/application resiliency. The team includes system owners/operators who provide continuous data collection and access and ensure installation of appropriate analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1991

Control system failure monitoring using generalized parity relations

Many applications require that a control system must be tolerant to the failure of its components. This is especially true for large space-based systems that must work unattended and with long periods between maintenance. Fault tolerance can be obtained by detecting the failure of the control system component, determining which component has failed, and reconfiguring the system so that the failed component is isolated from the controller. Component failure detection experiments that were conducted on an experimental space structure, the NASA Langley Mini-Mast are presented. Two methodologies for failure detection and isolation (FDI) exist that do not require the specification of failure modes and are applicable to both actuators and sensors. These methods are known as the Failure Detection Filter and the method of Generalized Parity Relations. The latter method was applied to three different sensor types on the Mini-Mast. Failures were simulated in input-output data that were recorded during operation of the Mini-Mast. Both single and double sensor parity relations were tested and the effect of several design parameters on the performance of these relations is discussed. The detection of actuator failures is also treated. It is shown that in all the cases it is possible to identify the parity relations directly from input-output data. Frequency domain analysis is used to explain the behavior of the parity relations.

Vanschalkwyk, Christiaan Mauritz↗
NASA NTRS1993

Program Helps In Analysis Of Failures

Failure Environment Analysis Tool (FEAT) computer program developed to enable people to see and better understand effects of failures in system. User selects failures from either engineering schematic diagrams or digraph-model graphics, and effects or potential causes of failures highlighted in color on same schematic-diagram or digraph representation. Uses digraph models to answer two questions: What will happen to system if set of failure events occurs? and What are possible causes of set of selected failures? Helps design reviewers understand exactly what redundancies built into system and where there is need to protect weak parts of system or remove them by redesign. Program also useful in operations, where it helps identify causes of failure after they occur. FEAT reduces costs of evaluation of designs, training, and learning how failures propagate through system. Written using Macintosh Programmers Workshop C v3.1. Can be linked with CLIPS 5.0 (MSC-21927, available from COSMIC).

Stevenson, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Ampoule Failure System

An ampoule failure system for use in material processing furnaces comprising a containment cartridge and an ampoule failure sensor. The containment cartridge contains an ampoule of toxic material therein and is positioned within a furnace for processing. An ampoule failure probe is positioned in the containment cartridge adjacent the ampoule for detecting a potential harmful release of toxic material therefrom during processing. The failure probe is spaced a predetermined distance from the ampoule and is chemically chosen so as to undergo a timely chemical reaction with the toxic material upon the harmful release thereof. The ampoule failure system further comprises a data acquisition system which is positioned externally of the furnace and is electrically connected to the ampoule failure probe so as to form a communicating electrical circuit. The data acquisition system includes an automatic shutdown device for shutting down the furnace upon the harmful release of toxic material. It also includes a resistance measuring device for measuring the resistance of the failure probe during processing. The chemical reaction causes a step increase in resistance of the failure probe whereupon the automatic shutdown device will responsively shut down the furnace.

Watring, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Failure Mode Identification Through Clustering Analysis

Research has shown that nearly 80% of the costs and problems are created in product development and that cost and quality are essentially designed into products in the conceptual stage. Currently, failure identification procedures (such as FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis), FMECA (Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis)) and design of experiments are being used for quality control and for the detection of potential failure modes during the detail design stage or post-product launch. Though all of these methods have their own advantages, they do not give information as to what are the predominant failures that a designer should focus on while designing a product. This work uses a functional approach to identify failure modes, which hypothesizes that similarities exist between different failure modes based on the functionality of the product/component. In this paper, a statistical clustering procedure is proposed to retrieve information on the set of predominant failures that a function experiences. The various stages of the methodology are illustrated using a hypothetical design example.

Arunajadai, Srikesh G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Analytical Method to Evaluate Failure Potential During High-Risk Component Development

Communicating failure mode information during design and manufacturing is a crucial task for failure prevention. Most processes use Failure Modes and Effects types of analyses, as well as prior knowledge and experience, to determine the potential modes of failures a product might encounter during its lifetime. When new products are being considered and designed, this knowledge and information is expanded upon to help designers extrapolate based on their similarity with existing products and the potential design tradeoffs. This paper makes use of similarities and tradeoffs that exist between different failure modes based on the functionality of each component/product. In this light, a function-failure method is developed to help the design of new products with solutions for functions that eliminate or reduce the potential of a failure mode. The method is applied to a simplified rotating machinery example in this paper, and is proposed as a means to account for helicopter failure modes during design and production, addressing stringent safety and performance requirements for NASA applications.

Tumer, Irem Y.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Progressive Failure Analysis of Composite Stiffened Panels

A new progressive failure analysis capability for stiffened composite panels has been developed based on the combination of the HyperSizer stiffened panel design/analysis/optimization software with the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC). MAC/GMC discretizes a composite material s microstructure into a number of subvolumes and solves for the stress and strain state in each while providing the homogenized composite properties as well. As a result, local failure criteria may be employed to predict local subvolume failure and the effects of these local failures on the overall composite response. When combined with HyperSizer, MAC/GMC is employed to represent the ply level composite material response within the laminates that constitute a stiffened panel. The effects of local subvolume failures can then be tracked as loading on the stiffened panel progresses. Sample progressive failure results are presented at both the composite laminate and the composite stiffened panel levels. Deformation and failure model predictions are compared with experimental data from the World Wide Failure Exercise for AS4/3501-6 graphite/epoxy laminates.

Bednarcyk, Brett A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Abrupt Transition to an Intergranular Failure Mode in the Near-Threshold FCG Regime in Ni-Based Superalloys

Cyclic near-threshold FCG behavior of two disk superalloys was evaluated, and was shown to exhibit an unexpected sudden failure mode transition from a mostly transgranular failure mode at higher stress intensities to an almost completely intergranular failure mode in the threshold regime. The change in failure modes was associated with a crossover effect in which the conditions that produced higher FCG rates in the Paris regime resulted in lower FCG rates and increased ΔKth values in the threshold region. High resolution scanning and transmission electron microscopy was used to carefully characterize the crack tips at these near-threshold conditions. Formation of stable Al-oxide followed by Cr and Ti oxides was found to occur at the crack tip prior to formation of unstable oxides. To contrast with the threshold failure mode regime, a quantitative assessment of the role that the intergranular failure mode has on cyclic FCG behavior in the Paris regime was also performed. It was demonstrated that the even a very limited intergranular failure content dominates the FCG response under mixed mode failure conditions.

fatigue crack growth↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Abrupt Transition to an Intergranular Failure Mode in the Near-Threshold Fatigue Crack Growth Regime in Ni-Based Superalloys

Cyclic near-threshold fatigue crack growth (FCG) behavior of two disk superalloys was evaluated and was shown to exhibit an unexpected sudden failure mode transition from a mostly transgranular failure mode at higher stress intensity factor ranges to an almost completely intergranular failure mode in the threshold regime. The change in failure modes was associated with a crossover of FCG resistance curves in which the conditions that produced higher FCG rates in the Paris regime resulted in lower FCG rates and increased Kth values in the threshold region. High-resolution scanning and transmission electron microscopy were used to carefully characterize the crack tips at these near-threshold conditions. Formation of stable Al-oxide followed by Cr-oxide and Ti-oxides was found to occur at the crack tip prior to formation of unstable oxides. To contrast with the threshold failure mode regime, a quantitative assessment of the role that the intergranular failure mode has on cyclic FCG behavior in the Paris regime was also performed. It was demonstrated that even a very limited intergranular failure content dominates the FCG response under mixed mode failure conditions.

Telesman, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗