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DOE OSTI2025

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of carbon pellets disruption mitigation in an NSTX-U plasma

Single carbon pellet disruption mitigation simulations using M3D-C1 were conducted for an NSTX-U-like plasma to support the electromagnetic pellet injection concept (EPI). A carbon ablation model has been implemented in M3D-C1 and tested with available data. 2D simulations were conducted in order to estimate the amount of carbon needed to quench the plasma, finding that the content in a 1 mm radius vitreous carbon pellet (~3.2x10E20 atoms) would be enough if it is entirely ablated. 3D simulations were performed, scanning over pellet velocity and parallel thermal conductivity, as well as different injection directions and pellet concepts (solid pellets and shell pellets). The sensitivity of the thermal quench and other related quantities to these parameters has been evaluated. A 1 mm radius solid pellet only partially ablates at velocities of 300 m/s or higher, thus being unable to fully quench the plasma. To further enhance the ablation, approximations to an array of pellets and the shell pellet concept were also explored. 3D field line stochastization plays an important role in both quenching the center of the plasma and in heat flux losses, thus lowering the amount of carbon needed to mitigate the plasma when compared to the 2D case. This study constitutes an important step forward in `predict-first' simulations for disruption mitigation in NSTX-U and other devices, such as ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and experimental validation of dynamical effects in Bragg coherent x-ray diffractive imaging of finite crystals

Bragg coherent diffractive imaging (BCDI) is a noninvasive microscopy technique that can visualize the shape and internal lattice deviations of crystals with nanoscale spatial resolution and picometer deformation sensitivity. Its strain imaging capability relies on Fourier transform–based iterative phase retrieval algorithms, which are mostly developed under the kinematical approximation. Such approximation prohibits the application of BCDI on larger crystals, which are commonly seen in most emerging functional materials. Understanding the dynamical effect in BCDI, as well as developing a validated method for modeling BCDI at the dynamical diffraction limit, is crucial for applying BCDI to hierarchical systems that contain micron-sized crystals and grains. Thus we report a comparative study on the impact of dynamical diffraction effects by comparing the reconstruction results from two measurements of the same crystal. Forward simulation is implemented to show subtle changes of interference fringes in the diffraction pattern due to the dynamical diffraction, and is compared directly with the experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nutrient Dynamics in a Coupled Terrestrial Biosphere and Land Model (ELM-FATES-CNP)

We present a representation of nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, a demographic vegetation model within the Energy Exascale Earth System land model. This representation is modular, and designed to allow testing of multiple hypothetical approaches for carbon-nutrient coupling in plants. Novel model hypotheses introduced in this work include, (a) the controls on plant acquisition of aqueous mineralized nutrients in the soil and (b) fairly straight forward methods of allocating nutrients to specific plant organs and their losses through live plant turnover as well as litter fluxes generated through plant mortality. This combines the new with pre-existing hypotheses (such as nitrogen fixation and soil decomposition) into a system that can accommodate plant-soil dynamics for a large number of size- and functional-type-resolved plant cohorts within a time-since-disturbance-resolved ecosystem. Root uptake of nutrients is governed by fine root biomass, and plants vary in their fine root biomass allocation in order to balance carbon and nutrient limitations to growth. We test the sensitivity of the model to a wide range of parameter variations and structural representations, and in the context of observations at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. A key model prediction is that plants in the high-light-availability canopy positions allocate more carbon to fine roots than plants in low-light understory environments, given the widely different carbon versus nutrient constraints of these two niches within a given ecosystem. This model provides a basis for exploring carbon-nutrient coupling with vegetation demography within Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

LA17-V-InverseRadTransportProblem-PD2Kb. Final Project Report

In the inverse radiation transport problem, a radiation signal emanating from an unknown object is used to reconstruct geometric and material parameters of the object , e.g., the mass of special nuclear material (SNM), the isotopic composition of the SNM (e.g., the enrichment of 235U), the thickness of shielding, etc. The inverse radiation transport problem is one of the most fundamental and important in the emergency response mission, and has been addressed in previous NA-22 and NA-42/84 investments by using derivative-free optimization methods. Our project was aimed at (i) consolidating previous work by applying polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for reducing significantly the number of forward model simulations required by derivative-free optimization methods; (ii) developing a general-purpose framework and stand-alone software for solving the inverse radiation transport problem by applying a new “predictive modeling” methodology (predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems, PM_CMPS) which enables the fusing of experimental and computational information; and (iii) developing several benchmarks (for unscattered gamma rays) for demonstrating the quantification of non-Gaussian features (e.g., skewness and kurtosis, which characterize asymmetries and long tails) of response distributions by deterministically and efficiently propagating parameter uncertainties (covariances and higher-order moments, where available) using high-order sensitivities computed by the recently developed comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (C-ASAM). With regard to (i), application of PCE, the most significant accomplishment of this project was an implementation of PCE into INVERSE that significantly reduced computation time for the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Differential Evolution (DE) methods. For inverse transport problems with measurements of neutron leakage, neutron multiplication, and neutron-induced gamma-rays, the solution times for the DREAM and DE methods were reduced by factors of 30-300, reducing run times from hours to minutes while maintaining the same accuracy as the standard (non-PCE) DREAM and DE. Speedups were further improved by exploring sparse grid quadrature sets using the Toolkit for Adaptive Stochastic Modeling and Non-Intrusive ApproximatioN (Tasmanian) toolset. An initial exploration of sparse grids indicated that further speedups factors of 5-10 are obtainable. The implementation of PCE in INVERSE is not in a form that users can easily access. With regard to (ii), solving the inverse problem using a predictive modeling paradigm, the most significant accomplishment of this project were the derivation and implementation of adjoint-based second derivatives in neutron and photon transport theory. There are two codes that compute these derivatives. SENSPG computes them for uncollided gamma rays and SENSMG computes them for neutron leakage. SENSMG is open-source code available on github. Other significant accomplishments included a stand-alone code, MULTI-PRED, that implements the predictive modeling paradigm, along with a detailed manual. The code was implemented in the existing INVERSE code for inverse problems, but a head-to-head comparison of inverse methods was not achieved. We also derived and implemented the capability to compute sensitivities for multiplicity measurements into the SENSMG code, and this capability was used in a data assimilation application, but it was not used for solving inverse problems. With regard to (iii), developing benchmarks to demonstrate the importance of high-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the most significant accomplishment of this project were two test problems that showed how important second-order sensitivities are.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Examples of State and Utility Actions on Proactive Planning and Investments

As states across the U.S. confront rising electricity demand, clean energy deployment, grid modernization imperatives, and the integration of large new loads, some regulators and utilities are shifting away from reactive, “just-in-time” investment approaches toward more proactive planning and investment frameworks. This report compiles examples of jurisdictional and utility actions that reshape planning processes, cost recovery mechanisms, and performance oversight to anticipate—rather than simply respond to—future grid needs. Several themes emerge from state actions examined in this report. First, legislatures and commissions are increasingly directing utilities to proactively upgrade their distribution and transmission systems, reflecting a shift toward a forward-looking system that aligns planning with state policy goals. Second, states are establishing long-term, iterative planning frameworks that often feature multi-year horizons, biannual or annual compliance reporting, structured opportunities for stakeholder engagement, and emphasis on collaboration among utilities, regulators, and stakeholders. Third, states are actively investigating innovative cost recovery mechanisms designed to support accelerated electrification and grid modernization, while balancing consumer advocates’ concerns regarding the ratepayer financial risks of premature investments. Fourth, performance metrics and reporting requirements are being developed to ensure transparency and accountability for proactive investments. Fifth, methodological improvements in planning—such as aligning load forecasting assumptions, incorporating sensitivities, and considering load management potential across building, vehicles, storage, and demand response—are recurring areas of stakeholder focus across jurisdictions. Overall, these developments signify a growing recognition among state regulators, utilities, and stakeholders that proactive planning—supported by clear definitions, consistent and transparent methodologies, robust performance metrics, and innovative cost recovery mechanisms—is a tool that can be used to address the scale and urgency of contemporary grid needs.

electricity market↗

DOE OSTI2021

An uncertainty quantification method relevant to material test reactors

Within material test reactor calculations, energy dependent flux and reaction rate uncertainties are typically not quantified when performing as-run analyses to determine the neutron field experienced by the experiment. When high fidelity Monte-Carlo codes are used in such analyses, straight forward methods to calculate output uncertainties are not available, instead expert opinion is used to postulate computational uncertainties. New methods to propagate uncertainties through these high fidelity simulations are available when sufficient computational power is available. A tool is developed here for sampling any part of an MCNP input from random distributions to determine output uncertainties based on those inputs. Another tool is developed to sample nuclear data cross-section in ACE format using multi-group nuclear data covariances. The Total Monte-Carlo Method and Gesellschaft für Anlagen-und Reaktorsicherheit method (GRS) are implemented and compared to one another as well as MCNP sensitivity and uncertainty calculations. The methods were applied to the Godiva critical sphere k-eigenvalue, the UAM pin-cell benchmark energy dependent flux and reaction rates, and the Advanced Test Reactor energy dependent flux within an experimental location. Furthermore, the two methods agree well, with GRS allowing for an order of magnitude speedup for reaction rate uncertainty calculations and several orders of magnitude for eigenvalue uncertainty calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Large area vertical Ga 2 O 3 Schottky diodes for X-ray detection

In this work, the Schottky barrier diodes were fabricated from a bulk Sn-doped (001) n-type Ga 2 O 3 substrate with a Si-doped epitaxial layer grown by hydride vapor phase epitaxy (HVPE), which demonstrate a good response to X-rays. Circular metal contacts with diameters ranging from 50 to 1500 um and square metal contacts ranging from 100 X 100 to 1600 X 1600 um 2 were deposited on the wafer. The devices were characterized for their electrical performance including forward current–voltage (FIV), reverse current–voltage (RIV), and capacitance-voltage (CV) measurements. The best device showed a breakdown voltage of –804 V and the devices tested had an average ideality of 1.12. The devices exhibited a clear response to X-rays even at zero bias with an experimentally observed response time 1.03 s and a linear response of detector signal to the X-ray dose rate. The experimentally observed device response time improved to 0.25 s when bias voltage is applied. The device also survived a long-term stability test of over 2 h under a constant X-ray irradiation. The sensitivity and the lower limit of detection for X-ray by Ga2O3 epitaxial Schottky detectors were discussed and determined as 43.5 C/mGy cm –2 at –200 V and 8.31 nGy Air /s, respectively.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electron energy loss spectroscopy database synthesis and automation of core-loss edge recognition by deep-learning neural networks

Abstract The ionization edges encoded in the electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) spectra enable advanced material analysis including composition analyses and elemental quantifications. The development of the parallel EELS instrument and fast, sensitive detectors have greatly improved the acquisition speed of EELS spectra. However, the traditional way of core-loss edge recognition is experience based and human labor dependent, which limits the processing speed. So far, the low signal–noise ratio and the low jump ratio of the core-loss edges on the raw EELS spectra have been challenging for the automation of edge recognition. In this work, a convolutional-bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (CNN-BiLSTM) is proposed to automate the detection and elemental identification of core-loss edges from raw spectra. An EELS spectral database is synthesized by using our forward model to assist in the training and validation of the neural network. To make the synthesized spectra resemble the real spectra, we collected a large library of experimentally acquired EELS core edges. In synthesize the training library, the edges are modeled by fitting the multi-Gaussian model to the real edges from experiments, and the noise and instrumental imperfectness are simulated and added. The well-trained CNN-BiLSTM network is tested against both the simulated spectra and real spectra collected from experiments. The high accuracy of the network, 94.9%, proves that, without complicated preprocessing of the raw spectra, the proposed CNN-BiLSTM network achieves the automation of core-loss edge recognition for EELS spectra with high accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

MnEdgeNet for accurate decomposition of mixed oxidation states for Mn XAS and EELS L2,3 edges without reference and calibration

Accurate decomposition of the mixed Mn oxidation states is highly important for characterizing the electronic structures, charge transfer and redox centers for electronic, and electrocatalytic and energy storage materials that contain Mn. Electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) and soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) measurements of the Mn L2,3 edges are widely used for this purpose. To date, although the measurements of the Mn L2,3 edges are straightforward given the sample is prepared properly, an accurate decomposition of the mix valence states of Mn remains non-trivial. For both EELS and XAS, 2+, 3+, and 4+ reference spectra need to be taken on the same instrument/beamline and preferably in the same experimental session because the instrumental resolution and the energy axis offset could vary from one session to another. To circumvent this hurdle, in this study, we adopted a deep learning approach and developed a calibration-free and reference-free method to decompose the oxidation state of Mn L2,3 edges for both EELS and XAS. A deep learning regression model is trained to accurately predict the composition of the mix valence state of Mn. To synthesize physics-informed and ground-truth labeled training datasets, we created a forward model that takes into account plural scattering, instrumentation broadening, noise, and energy axis offset. With that, we created a 1.2 million-spectrum database with 1-by-3 oxidation state composition ground truth vectors. The library includes a sufficient variety of data including both EELS and XAS spectra. By training on this large database, our convolutional neural network achieves 85% accuracy on the validation dataset. We tested the model and found it is robust against noise (down to PSNR of 10) and plural scattering (up to t/λ = 1). We further validated the model against spectral data that were not used in training. In particular, the model shows high accuracy and high sensitivity for the decomposition of Mn 3 O 4 , MnO, Mn 2 O 3 , and MnO 2 . The accurate decomposition of Mn 3 O 4 experimental data shows the model is quantitatively correct and can be deployed for real experimental data. Our model will not only be a valuable tool to researchers and material scientists but also can assist experienced electron microscopists and synchrotron scientists in the automated analysis of Mn L edge data.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimization of the BDX experiment for Light Dark Matter searches at JLab

The Light Dark Matter (LDM) hypothesis postulates the existence of a new class of sub GeV particles, neutral under Standard Model (SM) interactions. In its simplest form, LDM consists of particles ¿ with masses below 1 GeV/c2, interacting with SM particles via a new force mediated by a light, spin-1 boson A0, commonly referred to as “Dark Photon”. This framework envisions a distinct “Dark Sector” with its own particles and interactions, offering a theoretically well motivated explanation for Dark Matter, consistent with astrophysical observations and a thermal production mechanism. The Beam Dump eXperiment (BDX) is an approved experiment at Jefferson Lab designed to search for Light Dark Matter. BDX will utilize an 11 GeV electron beam impinging on a thick target to produce a forward-boosted secondary beam of Light Dark Matter particles, which will then be detected by a dedicated downstream detector. Approved in 2018, BDX is expected to be commissioned in 2026 and run in 2027-2029. My thesis focuses on the preparatory work to deploy the BDX experiment. The detector design has been optimized to balance practicality with enhanced Light Dark Matter detection capabilities. Extensive characterization of detector components has been performed to ensure a precise understanding of detector response. A custom Monte Carlo framework has been developed to simulate Light Dark Matter signal and explore various theoretical models of interest. Additionally, a comprehensive data analysis framework has been developed to maximize the experiment sensitivity to Light Dark Matter, with optimizations based on expected detector performance. The ultimate goal of this thesis is to optimize BDX as a flagship experiment in Light Dark Matter searches, enabling it to probe different Dark Matter models.

Spreafico, M. [Univ. of Genova (Italy)]↗

DOE OSTI2023

20 kV Gallium Nitride pn Diode Electro-Magnetic Pulse Arrestor for Grid Reliability (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This project developed vertical Gallium Nitride (GaN) pn diodes under two main thrusts: (1) A focus on relatively higher-voltage devices for use as fast EMP arrestors to protect the electric grid; and (2) A focus on a Foundry effort to establish the manufacturability of relatively lower voltage devices. For the first thrust, the aim was to develop devices that go into avalanche breakdown to clamp the voltage across sensitive grid equipment subject to voltage transients induced by electromagnetic pulses (EMPs). Devices with breakdown voltages exceeding 6.5 kV were achieved, and breakdown times shorter than 1 ns were demonstrated, which is sufficiently fast to protect against the fast component of an EMP-induced signal. Key challenges included the epitaxial growth of thick (50 µm or more), low-doped (low 10 15 cm -3 range) GaN layers comprising the drift regions of the diodes, as well as the design and fabrication of edge termination structures (step-etched junction termination extensions) to prevent premature breakdown. Midway through the project, an additional emphasis was put on large-area, high-current devices, and forward currents of approximately 400 A were achieved in composite devices towards the end of the project. Experimental and theoretical studies of impact ionization and avalanche ruggedness were also conducted. For the second thrust (the Foundry), the focus was primarily on 1.2-kV-class devices, although towards the end of the project outstanding results on 3.3-kV class devices were also achieved. The aim of the Foundry was to develop a high-yield, reliable, and economic vertical GaN pn diode process. The Foundry conducted characterization of incoming epitaxial material and correlated this information with the yield and performance of fully processed devices. Wafer maps of diode characteristics such as forward and reverse current as well as capacitance-voltage curves were measured using auto-probing. Several mask sets comprising different-area devices as well as multiple edge termination designs (implanted junction termination extensions, guard rings, and combinations thereof) were studied, and machine-learning-based approaches were utilized to analyze the data. Packaging and reliability efforts were also undertaken for the Foundry diodes, which are necessary for a viable commercial process.

20KV↗

DOE OSTI2023

20 kV Gallium Nitride pn Diode Electro-Magnetic Pulse Arrestor for Grid Reliability (Final Report)

This project developed vertical Gallium Nitride (GaN) pn diodes under two main thrusts: (1) A focus on relatively higher-voltage devices for use as fast EMP arrestors to protect the electric grid; and (2) A focus on a Foundry effort to establish the manufacturability of relatively lower-voltage devices. For the first thrust, the aim was to develop devices that go into avalanche breakdown to clamp the voltage across sensitive grid equipment subject to voltage transients induced by electromagnetic pulses (EMPs). Devices with breakdown voltages exceeding 6.5 kV were achieved, and breakdown times shorter than 1 ns were demonstrated, which is sufficiently fast to protect against the fast component of an EMP-induced signal. Key challenges included the epitaxial growth of thick (50 um or more), low-doped (low 10 15 cm -3 range) GaN layers comprising the drift regions of the diodes, as well as the design and fabrication of edge termination structures (step-etched junction termination extensions) to prevent premature breakdown. Midway through the project, an additional emphasis was put on large-area, high-current devices, and forward currents of approximately 400 A were achieved in composite devices towards the end of the project. Experimental and theoretical studies of impact ionization and avalanche ruggedness were also conducted. For the second thrust (the Foundry), the focus was primarily on 1.2-kV-class devices, although towards the end of the project outstanding results on 3.3-kV-class devices were also achieved. The aim of the Foundry was to develop a high-yield, reliable, and economic vertical GaN pn diode process. The Foundry conducted characterization of incoming epitaxial material and correlated this information with the yield and performance of fully processed devices. Wafer maps of diode characteristics such as forward and reverse current as well as capacitance-voltage curves were measured using auto-probing. Several mask sets comprising different-area devices as well as multiple edge termination designs (implanted junction termination extensions, guard rings, and combinations thereof) were studied, and machine-learning-based approaches were utilized to analyze the data. Packaging and reliability efforts were also undertaken for the Foundry diodes, which are necessary for a viable commercial process.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mid-IR UAV-based sensing platform with deep learning to Identify and Quantify Gaseous Emission in Gas Flares

This report details the development and evaluation of a Mid-Infrared (Mid-IR) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)-based sensing platform integrated with deep learning algorithms for the identification and quantification of gaseous emissions in gas flares. The project, spearheaded by Omega Optics, Inc., aimed to address environmental monitoring challenges by leveraging advanced photonic technologies and autonomous UAV operations. The research focused on designing, optimizing, and fabricating photonic crystal waveguides and grating couplers to enhance the sensitivity and accuracy of gas detection. A comprehensive drone-based system was developed, featuring a miniaturized sensor, GPS module, and microcontroller communication network for real-time gas concentration monitoring. The system's adaptive sampling algorithm, implemented using the Robot Operating System (ROS), enables autonomous detection and localization of gas emission sources. Preliminary results demonstrate the platform's capability to detect and monitor gas emissions with high precision, cost-effectiveness, and scalability. Future work will expand upon this foundation by introducing 3D wind model-based learning for dynamic environmental conditions and further enhancing the user interface and data processing algorithms to support broader environmental monitoring applications. Overall, this project represents a significant step forward in UAV-based environmental sensing technologies, offering robust solutions for detecting and mitigating the impacts of gaseous emissions on public health and safety.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Snapshot multispectral imaging using a diffractive optical network

Abstract Multispectral imaging has been used for numerous applications in e.g., environmental monitoring, aerospace, defense, and biomedicine. Here, we present a diffractive optical network-based multispectral imaging system trained using deep learning to create a virtual spectral filter array at the output image field-of-view. This diffractive multispectral imager performs spatially-coherent imaging over a large spectrum, and at the same time, routes a pre-determined set of spectral channels onto an array of pixels at the output plane, converting a monochrome focal-plane array or image sensor into a multispectral imaging device without any spectral filters or image recovery algorithms. Furthermore, the spectral responsivity of this diffractive multispectral imager is not sensitive to input polarization states. Through numerical simulations, we present different diffractive network designs that achieve snapshot multispectral imaging with 4, 9 and 16 unique spectral bands within the visible spectrum, based on passive spatially-structured diffractive surfaces, with a compact design that axially spans ~72 λ m , where λ m is the mean wavelength of the spectral band of interest. Moreover, we experimentally demonstrate a diffractive multispectral imager based on a 3D-printed diffractive network that creates at its output image plane a spatially repeating virtual spectral filter array with 2 × 2 = 4 unique bands at terahertz spectrum. Due to their compact form factor and computation-free, power-efficient and polarization-insensitive forward operation, diffractive multispectral imagers can be transformative for various imaging and sensing applications and be used at different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum where high-density and wide-area multispectral pixel arrays are not widely available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity

Using climate model ensembles containing members that exhibit very high climate sensitivities to increasing CO 2 concentrations can result in biased projections. Various methods have been proposed to ameliorate this ‘hot model’ problem, such as model emulators or model culling. Here, we utilize Bayesian Model Averaging as a framework to address this problem without resorting to outright rejection of models from the ensemble. Taking advantage of multiple lines of evidence used to construct the best estimate of the earth’s climate sensitivity, the Bayesian Model Averaging framework produces an unbiased posterior probability distribution of model weights. The updated multi-model ensemble projects end-of-century global mean surface temperature increases of 2 °C for a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) and 5 °C for a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). These estimates are lower than those produced using a simple multi-model mean for the CMIP6 ensemble. The results are also similar to results from a model culling approach, but retain some weight on low-probability models, allowing for consideration of the possibility that the true value could lie at the extremes of the assessed distribution. Our results showcase Bayesian Model Averaging as a path forward to project future climate change that is commensurate with the available scientific evidence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the thermal and ionization state of the low- z IGM using likelihood free inference

ABSTRACT We present a new approach to measure the power-law temperature density relationship $T=T_0 (\rho/ \bar{\rho })^{\gamma -1}$ and the UV background photoionization rate $\Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ of the intergalactic medium (IGM) based on the Voigt profile decomposition of the Ly α forest into a set of discrete absorption lines with Doppler parameter b and the neutral hydrogen column density $N_{\rm H\, {\small I}}$. Previous work demonstrated that the shape of the $b-N_{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ distribution is sensitive to the IGM thermal parameters T0 and γ, whereas our new inference algorithm also takes into account the normalization of the distribution, i.e. the line-density dN/dz, and we demonstrate that precise constraints can also be obtained on $\Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$. We use density-estimation likelihood-free inference (DELFI) to emulate the dependence of the $b-N_{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ distribution on IGM parameters trained on an ensemble of 624 nyx hydrodynamical simulations at z = 0.1, which we combine with a Gaussian process emulator of the normalization. To demonstrate the efficacy of this approach, we generate hundreds of realizations of realistic mock HST/COS data sets, each comprising 34 quasar sightlines, and forward model the noise and resolution to match the real data. We use this large ensemble of mocks to extensively test our inference and empirically demonstrate that our posterior distributions are robust. Our analysis shows that by applying our new approach to existing Ly α forest spectra at z ≃ 0.1, one can measure the thermal and ionization state of the IGM with very high precision ($\sigma _{\log T_0} \sim 0.08$ dex, σγ ∼ 0.06, and $\sigma _{\log \Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}} \sim 0.07$ dex).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗