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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Test and characterization of finely segmented pixel CZT detectors for future hard x-ray missions

The NuSTAR (Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array) mission was launched in 2012, and it has successfully deployed the first orbiting telescopes to focus high energy X-ray (3 - 79 keV) light, providing a wealth of new information on high-energy X-rays sources. Follow-up missions, such as the proposed HEX-P, BEST, and FORCE, could perform a deeper black hole census providing a more refined measurement of black hole spins, allowing for greater knowledge about supermassive black holes. Here, these missions are motivated by the recent breakthroughs in the hard X-ray mirror technologies, where mirrors, either made of monolithic silicon segments, or made directly or via replication of shells, demonstrate the feasibility of making hard X-ray mirrors with angular resolutions of 5-10 arc-seconds Half Power Diameter (HPD) compared to the NuSTAR’s 1 arc-minute HPD. Such a high angular resolution requires matched detectors with higher degree of segmentation to fully benefit from the achievable improved spatial resolution. In the above framework, the HEXID ASIC, a novel pixelated front-end suitable for reading out a finely segmented CZT sensor with 150 μm pixel pitch in a hexagonal arrangement has been developed. This readout pixelated chip is capable of processing photon-generated charge packets over a large dynamic range (from 2 keV up to 180 keV), while keeping a low input noise (ENC <20 e - ). In this work, the initial characterization of the ASIC prototype will be presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the historical deforestation of an ecoregion in the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined regional forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m -2 ), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of this greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture can provide -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m -2 of climate mitigation over a 100-year time period while short/medium length forestry rotations can provide more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m -2 and natural forest regeneration can provide the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m -2 . As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Subsurface Cooling and Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Formation Over the Equatorial Pacific

Abstract The equatorial cold tongue region has not warmed up in response to historical radiative forcing in the real world, contrary to the strong warming often simulated by climate models. Here we demonstrate that climate models fail to represent one or both of the key processes driving observed sea surface temperature (SST) pattern formation: a realistic surface wind stress pattern shaping subsurface cooling through wind‐driven circulation changes, and effective connectivity between subsurface and surface temperatures via upwelling and mixing. Consequently, none of the models approximate the observed lack of cold tongue SST warming and strengthening of zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, those that come closest achieve this due to interhemispheric warming differences rather than equatorial dynamics as observed. Addressing different origins of subsurface cooling in observations and simulations, and how they connect to SST, will lead to improved understanding of tropical Pacific SST changes to date and how they will evolve in the future.

Jiang, Feng [Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Colu↗
DOE OSTI2025

A code-to-code benchmark for magneto-convection in a horizontal duct

Liquid metals and magnetic fields are used in many technical applications such as metallurgy, crystal growth and nuclear fusion reactors. When an electrically conducting fluid moves in a magnetic environment, electric currents and electromagnetic forces are generated that affect velocity and pressure losses in the flow. These magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) interactions have to be investigated to optimize the engineering processes. The characteristics of MHD flows depend on the geometrical configuration, the strength of the applied magnetic field, the electrical properties of fluid and structural materials and the thermal conditions. In the so-called blankets for fusion reactors, where liquid metals are used to breed the plasma fuel component tritium and to extract the generated heat, magneto-convective flows play a crucial role in determining heat and mass transfer. Therefore, the availability of numerical codes to simulate this type of flow is mandatory and their validation is a necessary step to guarantee the reliability of the results. For that reason, a benchmark problem has been defined to simulate liquid metal flows in a horizontal rectangular duct heated from below and exposed to a non-uniform magnetic field. Results obtained by five research groups using different codes are compared.

benchmark↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quasielastic $\overrightarrow{^{3}He}$ $(\overrightarrow{e},e′)$ asymmetry in the threshold region with a longitudinally polarized target

We report on the measurements of the double-spin asymmetry from electron- 3 He scattering in the threshold region of two- and three-body breakup of 3 He for 4-momentum transfer values of 0.1 and 0.2 (GeV/c) 2 . The measurement was done at Jefferson Lab using a polarized 3 He target with its spin aligned parallel to the beam direction. This asymmetry is sensitive to a combination of spin-dependent response functions not previously measured and may highlight differences in two body forces, meson-exchange currents and final-state interactions. The results of this measurement serve as a test of our understanding of few-body systems. When compared with calculations from plane wave impulse approximation and Faddeev calculations, we found that the latter, which use modern nuclear potentials and prescriptions for meson-exchange currents, demonstrate an overall good agreement with data.

Few-body nuclei↗
DOE OSTI2025

Crystalline Order Yet Glass-Like Heat Transport Driven by Hidden Local Distortions as the Structural Origin of Ultralow Thermal Conductivity in AgErTe 2

Given their rich chemical diversity and the interplay among the p-, d-, and f-orbitals of chalcogens, transition metals, and lanthanides, respectively, rare-earth transition-metal chalcogenides exhibit a wide variety of structural, magnetic, and transport phenomena. As a result, they form a particularly appealing platform for investigating structure–property relationships, emergent electronic and magnetic behaviors, and thermal transport. Here we investigate AgErTe 2 as a model system to understand phonon-glass behavior in ordered crystalline solids, which establishes the design principles for thermal barrier coatings and next-generation thermoelectrics. The local bonding asymmetry and lattice softness suppress the inherently low lattice thermal conductivity, resembling the characteristics of amorphous materials. This suppression is significantly influenced by local off-centering of Ag atoms, which breaks lattice periodicity while maintaining global crystallinity. The presence of antibonding states just below the Fermi level, arising from Ag 4d and Te 5p orbital interactions, leads to lattice softening and destabilizes ideal tetrahedral coordination, resulting in a pseudo Jahn–Teller distortion. Furthermore, the coexistence of weaker, more polarizable Ag–Te bonds and stronger Er–Te bonds creates a complex vibrational landscape enriched with low-frequency modes and enhanced phonon scattering. A pronounced disparity in interatomic force constants gives rise to highly localized, low-energy optical phonons linked to Ag rattling. These flat vibrational modes exhibit strong coupling with transverse acoustic phonons, resulting in ultrashort phonon lifetimes and mean free paths approaching interatomic distances. These features collectively enhance phonon scattering across a broad range of length and energy scales. This work offers a framework for engineering suppressed thermal conductivity in crystalline systems without the introduction of alloying elements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sterile-neutrino search based on 259 days of KATRIN data

Neutrinos are the most abundant fundamental matter particles in the Universe and play a crucial part in particle physics and cosmology. Neutrino oscillation, discovered about 25 years ago, shows that the three known species mix with each other. Anomalous results from reactor and radioactive-source experiments suggest a possible fourth neutrino state, the sterile neutrino, which does not interact through the weak force. The Karlsruhe Tritium Neutrino (KATRIN) experiment, primarily designed to measure the neutrino mass using tritium β-decay, also searches for sterile neutrinos suggested by these anomalies. A sterile-neutrino signal would appear as a distortion in the β-decay energy spectrum, characterized by a discontinuity in curvature (kink) related to the sterile-neutrino mass. This signature, which depends only on the shape of the spectrum rather than its absolute normalization, offers a robust, complementary approach to reactor experiments. Here we report the analysis of the energy spectrum of 36 million tritium β-decay electrons recorded in 259 measurement days within the last 40 eV below the endpoint. The results exclude a substantial part of the parameter space suggested by the gallium anomaly and challenge the Neutrino-4 claim. Together with other neutrino-disappearance experiments, KATRIN probes sterile-to-active mass splittings from a fraction of an eV 2 to several hundred eV 2 , excluding light sterile neutrinos with mixing angles above a few per cent.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of ASDEX upgrade results in view of ITER and DEMO

Experiments on ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) in 2021 and 2022 have addressed a number of critical issues for ITER and EU DEMO. A major objective of the AUG programme is to shed light on the underlying physics of confinement, stability, and plasma exhaust in order to allow reliable extrapolation of results obtained on present day machines to these reactor-grade devices. Concerning pedestal physics, the mitigation of edge localised modes (ELMs) using resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) was found to be consistent with a reduction of the linear peeling-ballooning stability threshold due to the helical deformation of the plasma. Conversely, ELM suppression by RMPs is ascribed to an increased pedestal transport that keeps the plasma away from this boundary. Candidates for this increased transport are locally enhanced turbulence and a locked magnetic island in the pedestal. The enhanced D-alpha (EDA) and quasi-continuous exhaust (QCE) regimes have been established as promising ELM-free scenarios. Here, the pressure gradient at the foot of the H-mode pedestal is reduced by a quasi-coherent mode, consistent with violation of the high-n ballooning mode stability limit there. This is suggestive that the EDA and QCE regimes have a common underlying physics origin. In the area of transport physics, full radius models for both L- and H-modes have been developed. These models predict energy confinement in AUG better than the commonly used global scaling laws, representing a large step towards the goal of predictive capability. A new momentum transport analysis framework has been developed that provides access to the intrinsic torque in the plasma core. In the field of exhaust, the X-Point Radiator (XPR), a cold and dense plasma region on closed flux surfaces close to the X-point, was described by an analytical model that provides an understanding of its formation as well as its stability, i.e., the conditions under which it transitions into a deleterious MARFE with the potential to result in a disruptive termination. With the XPR close to the divertor target, a new detached divertor concept, the compact radiative divertor, was developed. Here, the exhaust power is radiated before reaching the target, allowing close proximity of the X-point to the target. No limitations by the shallow field line angle due to the large flux expansion were observed, and sufficient compression of neutral density was demonstrated. With respect to the pumping of non-recycling impurities, the divertor enrichment was found to mainly depend on the ionisation energy of the impurity under consideration. In the area of MHD physics, analysis of the hot plasma core motion in sawtooth crashes showed good agreement with nonlinear 2-fluid simulations. This indicates that the fast reconnection observed in these events is adequately described including the pressure gradient and the electron inertia in the parallel Ohm’s law. Concerning disruption physics, a shattered pellet injection system was installed in collaboration with the ITER International Organisation. Thanks to the ability to vary the shard size distribution independently of the injection velocity, as well as its impurity admixture, it was possible to tailor the current quench rate, which is an important requirement for future large devices such as ITER. Progress was also made modelling the force reduction of VDEs induced by massive gas injection on AUG. The H-mode density limit was characterised in terms of safe operational space with a newly developed active feedback control method that allowed the stability boundary to be probed several times within a single discharge without inducing a disruptive termination. Regarding integrated operation scenarios, the role of density peaking in the confinement of the ITER baseline scenario (high plasma current) was clarified. The usual energy confinement scaling ITER98(p,y) does not capture this effect, but the more recent H20 scaling does, highlighting again the importance of developing adequate physics based models. Advanced tokamak scenarios, aiming at large non-inductive current fraction due to non-standard profiles of the safety factor in combination with high normalised plasma pressure were studied with a focus on their access conditions. A method to guide the approach of the targeted safety factor profiles was developed, and the conditions for achieving good confinement were clarified. Based on this, two types of advanced scenarios (‘hybrid’ and ‘elevated’

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Formate-Induced Dissolution and Reprecipitation of a Copper Electrocatalyst during Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction Reaction

Catalyst size, morphology, and crystal structure play crucial roles in determining the activity and selectivity of electrochemical CO 2 reduction reactions, which are known to change during the reaction process. A comprehensive understanding of how, when, and why these parameters evolve under operational conditions is essential for developing stable, efficient, and selective catalysts. In this study, we reveal that formate, one of the reaction products, contributes to the degradation of copper catalysts through a ligand-assisted dissolution mechanism. Utilizing in situ electrochemical atomic force microscopy and ex-situ scanning and transmission electron microscopies, we observed a significant reduction in the size of copper nanoparticles, which decreased from over 30 nm to less than 10 nm in diameter within 60 min of CO 2 RR. The temporal production of formate correlated with the particle size changes. Furthermore, analysis of the electrolyte using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy confirmed the dissolution of copper nanoparticles. Control experiments involving various reaction products (H 2 , CO, and HCOO – ) demonstrated that formate significantly promotes copper dissolution, thereby highlighting its role in the ligand-assisted dissolution mechanism of copper electrocatalysts. In conclusion, our findings provide critical insights into copper catalyst behavior during electrochemical CO 2 reduction, facilitating the design of more resilient and effective electrocatalysts.

Catalysts↗
DOE OSTI2025

A high repetition rate millimeter wavelength accelerator for an X-ray free-electron laser

A compact collinear wakefield accelerator has been designed for an X-ray free-electron laser capable of operating at a pulse repetition rate in the tens of kilohertz. The maximum achievable accelerating gradient has been determined, with its limitation linked to beam breakup instability. The fabrication techniques for the principal components of the accelerator including wakefield generation, couplers for excess power extraction and diagnostics, focusing quadrupoles, and a novel undulator have been discussed. Results from various laboratory and beam-based tests on these components have been compared to their original design specifications and demonstrated very good agreement. A preliminary design for the XFEL has been presented, featuring a novel small-period, force-neutral, adjustable-phase undulator.

26 undulator↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct comparison of gyrokinetic and fluid scrape-off layer simulations

Typically, fluid simulations are used for tokamak divertor design. However, fluid models are only valid if the scrape-off layer (SOL) is highly collisional. This assumption is valid in many present-day experiments but is questionable in the upstream SOL of some high-power scenarios envisioned for burning plasmas and fusion pilot plants. This paper reports on comparisons between fluid and kinetic simulations of the SOL for upstream parameters and geometry representative of the Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production fusion pilot plant. The SOLPS-ITER (fluid) and Gkeyll (gyrokinetic) codes are operated in a two-dimensional axisymmetric mode, which replaces turbulence with ad-hoc diffusivities. In kinetic simulations, we observe that the ions in the upstream SOL experience significant mirror trapping. This substantially increases the upstream temperature and has important implications for impurity dynamics. We show that the mirror force, which is excluded in SOLPS’s fluid equations, enhances the electrostatic potential drop along the field line in the SOL. We also show that the assumption of equal main ion and impurity temperatures, which is made in commonly used fluid codes, is invalid for the regimes explored here. The combination of these effects results in superior confinement of impurities to the divertor region in kinetic simulations, consistent with our earlier predictions [Kotschenreuther et al., in 29th IAEA 29 Fusion Energy Conference (IAEA, London, UK, 2023)]. This effect can be dramatic, reducing the midplane impurity density by orders of magnitude. These results indicate that in lower collisionality SOL’s the tolerable downstream impurity densities may be higher than would be predicted by fluid simulations, allowing for higher radiated power while avoiding unacceptable core contamination. Our results highlight the importance of kinetic simulations for divertor design and optimization for fusion pilot plants.

Computational fluid dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deviations from the Isobaric Multiplet Mass Equation due to Threshold States

Recent studies have completed the A=16 isospin quintets for states with J π =0 + and 2 + . The dependence of their masses as a function of isospin projection shows evidence for deviations from quadratic behavior indicating isospin violation beyond the expectation from two-body forces. The deviation is most pronounced for the 2 + states. Predictions from the shell model embedded in the continuum (SMEC) allow us to explain that this isospin violation is associated with a modification of the nuclear structure due to the open-quantum-system nature of the proton-rich members of the quintet. In particular, the 0 + and 2 + states in 16 Ne and the 2 + state in 16 F are threshold resonances located just above a proton-decay threshold where s-wave coupling to the continuum is expected. The measured deviations of these threshold states from the quadratic behavior of the remaining members of the multiplets makes it possible to obtain information on the magnitude and the energy dependence of the continuum-coupling energy correction. Finally, continuum coupling is also indicated for the ground state of 8 C, but this time through p-wave coupling

coulomb energies & analogue states↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inhibition of Reaction Layer Formation on MgO(100) by Doping with Trace Amounts of Iron

Despite extensive research on MgO’s reactivity in the presence of CO 2 under various conditions, little is known about whether impurities incorporated into the solid, such as iron, enhance or impede hydroxylation and carbonation reactions. The purity of the MgO required for the successful implementation of MgO looping as a direct air capture technology affects the deployment costs. With this motivation, we tested how incorporated iron impacts MgO (100) reactivity and passivation layer formation under ambient conditions by using atomic force microscopy, electron microscopy, and synchrotron-based X-ray scattering. Based on electron microprobe analysis, our MgO samples were 0.5 wt % iron, and Mössbauer spectroscopy results indicated that 70% of the iron is present as Fe(II). We find that even these low levels of iron dopants impeded both the hydroxylation at various relative humidities (10%, 33%, 75%, and >95%) and carbonation in CO 2 (33%, 75%, and >95%) on the (100) surface. Crystalline reaction products were formed. Reaction layers on the sample were easily removed by exposing the sample to deionized water for 2 min. Overall, our findings demonstrate that the presence of iron dopants slows the reaction rate of MgO, indicating that MgO without incorporated iron is preferable for mineral looping applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subpolar North Atlantic Mean State Affects the Response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate, transporting heat and salt to the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC’s variability is sensitive to atmospheric forcing, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Because AMOC observations are short, climate models are a valuable tool to study the AMOC’s variability. Yet, there are known issues with climate models, like uncertainties and systematic biases. To investigate this, preindustrial control experiments from models participating in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated. There is a large, but correlated, spread in the models’ subpolar gyre mean surface temperature and salinity. By splitting models into groups of either a warm–salty or cold–fresh subpolar gyre, it is shown that warm–salty models have a lower sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea and, hence, enable a larger heat loss during a positive NAO. Stratification in the Labrador Sea is also weaker in warm–salty models, such that the larger NAO-related heat loss can also affect greater depths. As a result, subsurface density anomalies are much stronger in the warm–salty models than in those that tend to be cold and fresh. As these anomalies propagate southward along the western boundary, they establish a zonal density gradient anomaly that promotes a stronger delayed AMOC response to the NAO in the warm–salty models. These findings demonstrate how model mean state errors are linked across variables and affect variability, emphasizing the need for improvement of the subpolar North Atlantic mean states in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways (CLDERA)

Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Skeletal Kinetics Reduction for Astrophysical Reaction Networks

A novel methodology is developed to extract accurate skeletal reaction models for nuclear combustion. Local sensitivities of isotope mass fractions with respect to reaction rates are modeled based on the forced optimally time-dependent (f-OTD) scheme. These sensitivities are then analyzed temporally to generate skeletal models. The methodology is demonstrated by conducting skeletal reduction of constant density and temperature burning of carbon and oxygen relevant to Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). The 495-isotopes Torch model is chosen as the detailed reaction network. A map of maximum production of 56 Ni in SNe Ia is produced for different temperatures, densities, and proton-to-neutron ratios. The f-OTD simulations and the sensitivity analyses are then performed with initial conditions from this map. A series of skeletal models are derived and their performances are assessed by comparison against currently existing skeletal models. Previous models have been constructed intuitively by assuming the dominance of α-chain reactions. The comparison of the newly generated skeletal models against previous models is based on the predicted energy release and 44 Ti and 56 Ni abundances by each model. The consequences of ye ≠ 0.5 in the initial composition are also explored where ye is the electron fraction. The simulated results show that 56 Ni production decreases by decreasing ye as expected, and that the 43 Sc is a key isotope in proton and neutron channels toward 56 Ni production. It is shown that an f-OTD skeletal model with 150 isotopes can accurately predict the 56Ni abundance in SNe Ia for ye ≲ 0.5 initial conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Final Technical Report - Center for Simulation of Fusion Relevant RF Actuators

We have developed a suite of 3D electromagnetic field solvers, both FEM and FDTD based, that account for the RF antenna and vacuum vessel geometries with unprecedented accuracy. Workflows were developed that make it possible to translate CAD models for the antenna and vacuum vessel to physics meshes for RF wave simulation. Nonlinear RF sheath formation has been incorporated self-consistently as a boundary condition in these solvers. We have also carried out extensive studies of the impact of RF sheaths on the ion energy angle distribution at plasma-material interfaces, using high fidelity particle-in-cell codes. Comprehensive simulation models were developed to assess the impact of blob-like edge turbulence on RF wave propagation and the impact of the RF ponderomotive force on the plasma scrape-off layer (SOL). A fluid transport solver for the far-SOL was also developed which accounts for the high parallel to perpendicular heat anisotropy on an unstructured mesh, thus making it possible to precisely represent an antenna structure in the presence of edge transport. Finally we have developed a hierarchy of core wave propagation and absorption models that self-consistently combine continuum Fokker Planck and Monte Carlo treatments of fast ion evolution with ICRF full-wave field solvers and continuum Fokker Planck treatments of fast electron evolution with both full-wave and ray tracing models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Earth System Reanalysis in Support of Climate Model Improvements

Recent climate model developments, established through increased model resolution, have led to substantial improvements in model simulations of the time-evolving, coupled Earth system and its subcomponents. However, regardless of resolution, climate models will always produce climate features and variability that differ from the real world and will be prone to biases. This is due to many remaining uncertainties, such as in parametric and structural model uncertainty, in the initial conditions prescribed, and in the prescribed (scenario) forcing which varies on decadal to centennial timescales. Further model improvements are expected to arise specifically from improved representation of physical processes realized through model-data fusion. This will create an unprecedented opportunity to better exploit a large array of Earth observations, from in situ measurements to weather radars and satellite observations, as the resolved scales of the models approach those of the observations. For this, climate DA will be the central tool to bring models and observations into consistency, by improving initial conditions, inferring uncertain model parameters and structure, and quantifying uncertainty. Generally, there will be advantages and complementarities of adjoint-based smoother approaches, ensemble-based filter approaches, or new ML-inspired approaches. Yet, the ever-increasing model resolution will present growing challenges arising from computational cost, calling for new ways of performing data assimilation and model optimization. Using the complementarity in a hybrid approach, blending tools and concepts from variational, ensemble and ML methods might be what is required in the future. In this context ML could be important to handle non-linear responses, and to better approximate non-Gaussian distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗