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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Based Solar Power

Space based solar power (SBSP) entails in-space collection of solar energy, transmission of that energy to one or more stations on Earth, conversion to electricity, and delivery to the grid or to batteries for storage. Experts in both the aerospace and energy sectors are debating the benefits of SBSP as more organizations globally begin SBSP technology development programs. We conducted a study to evaluate the potential benefits, challenges, and options for NASA to engage with growing global interest in SBSP. We performed a first order lifecycle study of two representative SBSP designs for 2 GW utility-scale power generation that, for the purposes of the study, are presumed to begin in 2050. We assumed baseline capabilities to develop, assemble, operate, maintain, and dispose of the SBSP systems are a mix of capabilities that are above, below, or comparable to capabilities demonstrated to date. We then compared the lifecycle cost of electricity and lifecycle GHG emission intensity of the SBSP designs to alternative terrestrial renewable electricity production technologies. Our findings indicate the SBSP designs may produce lifecycle GHG emissions per unit of electricity that are comparable to terrestrial alternatives, pending further studies of upper atmosphere responses to launch emissions. We find the SBSP designs are more expensive than terrestrial alternatives and may have lifecycle costs per unit of electricity that are 12-80 times higher. Though, we do find cost competitiveness may be achieved if a favorable combination of cost and capability improvements related to launch and manufacturing that are beyond the advancements assumed in the baseline assessment can be attained.

Erica Rodgers↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Based Solar Power Study

solar↗

DOE OSTI2023

Life cycle assessment of railway ties fabricated with ductile cementitious composites and carbonation curing

This paper evaluates the lifecycle economic and environmental benefits of implementing CO 2 utilization and storage within advanced engineered cementitious composite (ECC) railway ties. Using CO 2 -treated ECC ties can yield lifecycle benefits primarily due to enhanced material properties – increased lifespan in this case – instead of due to the stored CO 2 that would otherwise enter the atmosphere. Sequestration-based policies such as 45Q in the United States would therefore not incentivize deployment of ECC railway ties, despite their considerable CO 2 avoidance opportunities. To reach these conclusions, cradle-to-grave lifecycle models were developed for ECC ties and conventional concrete ties and evaluated under 1000 possible use-phase scenarios. The models incorporated premature tie failures – consistent with real-world observations – that were used to study a wide range of non-linear impacts arising from the random nature of tie failures and replacements. The results show that past studies that neglected premature failure of ties may have underestimated lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of concrete rail ties by nearly three times. Overall, servicing a track with ECC ties instead of concrete ties can reduce the lifecycle costs and GHG emissions by 12% and 21% respectively, based on median values of 1000 model run results. The expected benefits would be larger for entities like Amtrak that plan to expand concrete tie infrastructure despite significant challenges with premature concrete tie failures. Furthermore, the results of this study suggest that the lifespan of ECC ties needs to be at least 25% longer than concrete ties to achieve net lifecycle benefits. The possibility of this should be tested and confirmed under real-world conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Life Cycle Analysis of Growing Canola for Biofuel Production in the United States

This study quantifies and compares the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of renewable diesel (RD), sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and biodiesel (BD) produced from two U.S. canola production systems: 1) emerging intermediate winter canola, typically grown in double- or relay-cropping systems between the growing seasons of main crops, and 2) main canola, mostly spring canola but also including winter canola, which are grown as primary crops occupying the field for a full growing season. Using the Research and Development version of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model and the most up-to-date life cycle inventory data─field trial data for intermediate winter canola (>37,000 acres) and recent national survey data for spring canola─this life cycle analysis (LCA) estimates the direct emissions from canola cultivation and harvest, the conversion of canola into fuels, fuel transportation, and combustion. In addition, we account for market-mediated emissions associated with a scenario of 0.5 billion gallons per year of spring canola-based biofuels, including induced land use change (ILUC), induced other crop (nonfeedstock) production changes, and induced livestock production changes. For intermediate winter canola, these market-mediated effects were not modeled, as ILUC is expected to be negligible due to its integration into existing rotations, and data are currently insufficient to reliably quantify other market-mediated changes. The estimated life cycle direct emissions of RD/SAF derived from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 32 and 33 g of CO2-equivalent per megajoule of fuel (g CO 2 e/MJ), respectively. Corresponding emissions for BD from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 30 and 31 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. Farming is the dominant emissions source for both canola systems, with intermediate winter canola and main spring canola emitting about 19 and 20 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. ILUC and other induced changes increase emissions of main spring canola-derived RD/SAF and BD by about 18 and 17 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. These results indicate that the GHG emissions of biofuels produced from the two canola systems may differ substantially due to the different land use dynamics of the systems.

biodiesel↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microbial sensitivity to temperature and sulfate deposition modulates greenhouse gas emissions from peat soils

Abstract Peatlands are among the largest natural sources of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) worldwide. Microbial processes play a key role in regulating CH 4 emissions from peatland ecosystems, yet the complex interplay between soil substrates and microbial communities in controlling CH 4 emissions as a function of global change remains unclear. Herein, we performed an integrated analysis of multi‐omics data sets to provide a comprehensive understanding of the molecular processes driving changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in peatland ecosystems with increasing temperature and sulfate deposition in a laboratory incubation study. We sought to first investigate how increasing temperatures (4, 21, and 35°C) impact soil microbiome–metabolome interactions; then explore the competition between methanogens and sulfate‐reducing bacteria (SRBs) with increasing sulfate concentrations at the optimum temperature for methanogenesis. Our results revealed that peat soil organic matter degradation, mediated by biotic and potentially abiotic processes, is the main driver of the increase in CO 2 production with temperature. In contrast, the decrease in CH 4 production at 35°C was linked to the absence of syntrophic communities and the potential inhibitory effect of phenols on methanogens. Elevated temperatures further induced the microbial communities to develop high growth yield and stress tolerator trait‐based strategies leading to a shift in their composition and function. On the other hand, SRBs were able to outcompete methanogens in the presence of non‐limiting sulfate concentrations at 21°C, thereby reducing CH 4 emissions. At higher sulfate concentrations, however, the prevalence of communities capable of producing sufficient low‐molecular‐weight carbon substrates for the coexistence of SRBs and methanogens was translated into elevated CH 4 emissions. The use of omics in this study enhanced our understanding of the structure and interactions among microbes with the abiotic components of the system that can be useful for mitigating GHG emissions from peatland ecosystems in the face of global change.

AminiTabrizi, Roya↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Life Cycle Analysis of Methanol Production and Methanol-to-Diesel Conversion

Methanol is a strategic chemical and intermediate in the manufacture of synthetic diesel, due to its versatility, diesel’s compatibility with existing infrastructure, and their role in industrial and transport applications. Conventional production methods for methanol, primarily steam methane reforming (SMR), rely on natural gas and are subject to the price variability due to market conditions and geopolitical events. They are also associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Methanol and synthetic diesel production could be integrated with nuclear energy to stabilize fuel prices and insulate pricing from outside geopolitical events due to the relative stability of nuclear fuel as compared to natural gas. This could lead to increased transportation fuel security, reliability and resilience. An added benefit is the abatement of emissions when substituting nuclear energy for conventional energy from natural gas. This report presents a comprehensive life cycle analysis(LCA) framework which was developed to evaluate the GHG emissions reduction potential associated with nuclear integrated methanol production, methanol-to-diesel upgrading, and end-use combustion. Gate-to-gate methanol production and cradle-to-grave emissions were evaluated in, starting with a business-as-usual (BAU) SMR-based methanol plant, and then considering stepwise nuclear integration. Methanol-to-diesel (MTD) conversion was evaluated accounting for nuclear energy integration and hydrogen production via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) using electricity either from the grid or from a dedicated nuclear power system. This multi-step process diverts stable and reliable nuclear energy into the transportation sector by upgrading low energy dense natural gas into liquid fuels fully compatible with existing infrastructure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

California's harvested wood products: A time-dependent assessment of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions

Following life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, this study presents a state-level estimation of embodied carbon of wood products harvested in 2019 from California and subsequently processed, manufactured, transported, used, and disposed at the end-of-life (EoL). In a conventional static approach to LCA, all GHG emissions were aggregated and considered to occur at year 0 of the given time horizon (500 years in this study) and used a static characterization factor (CF). In dynamic LCA, GHG emissions occurring in different years were considered, and their global warming impact (GWI) was determined using a time-dependent CF over the selected time horizon of 500 years. Four scenarios were developed to examine the impact of EoL choices on GWI. It was found that dynamic GWI for all scenarios ranged from 0.27 to 0.93 million tonne CO₂e, which were 45–73 % lower than those estimated with static LCA approach, indicating that the static LCA approach could lead to an underestimation of the benefits of substituting wood for non-wood products, compared to those based on dynamic LCA approach. This analysis also demonstrated that the choice of EoL treatment option is a key factor affecting the estimated GWI as it directly determines the annual emission of GHGs released into atmosphere and subsequently their warming effect depending on the time harvested wood products (HWPs) spend in the horizon of assessment. Altogether, the dynamic LCA performed in this study enabled more robust interpretations of embodied carbon by including temporal boundaries associated with the HWPs life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Boosting climate change mitigation potential of perennial lignocellulosic crops grown on marginal lands

Nitrogen fertilizer (N F ) is a major uncertainty surrounding the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of lignocellulosic biofuels. NF enhances agronomic yields and soil C inputs via plant litters, but results in soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition, soil N 2 O fluxes, and a large fossil energy footprint. Thus, whether NF is beneficial or detrimental to the GHG mitigation of biofuels is unknown. Here, we show the potential GHG mitigation of fertilizing switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) at the NF rate that minimizes net GHG emissions across 7.1 million ha of marginal lands in the Midwest US, with long-term production advantages surpassing emitted GHG by 0.66 Mg CO 2 e ha –1 yr –1 on the aggregate. Marginal lands limited by poor N fertility could see a much greater benefit, but not SOC-rich lands, limited by low precipitation, or short growing seasons. The objectives of maximizing yield and minimizing GHG overlap only in a few environments, suggesting that maximum yield will reduce the climate benefit of cellulosic biofuels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Getting lost tracking the carbon footprint of hydropower

In the transition to low-carbon electricity, well-quantified estimates of carbon dynamics are needed to ensure that emissions reduction targets are achieved. Here we review the state of the science on carbon accounting for hydropower reservoirs and identify limitations and future solutions. Nearly all research on reservoir greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions has focused on individual reservoirs in isolation without considering their position in a freshwater network draining organic matter from upstream watersheds or the coordinated operation of reservoir cascades. Second, carbon inventories have extrapolated from a small, non-probabilistic sample of highly variable measurements of GHG emissions to unsampled reservoirs. A stronger statistical foundation is needed to estimate a global inventory and its uncertainty. Third, attribution to hydropower is based on ranks assigned to reservoir purpose. Instead, the physical influence of hydropower on carbon dynamics could be directly measured. Fourth, current carbon-accounting practices neglect time. A time-varying approach would quantify variation in emissions for electricity portfolios from changes in the fuel mix at different times and account for ancillary services, i.e., the ability to support the grid when variable renewables are not available without using natural gas. Reservoirs also sequester a significant portion of inflowing carbon in sediments and slow the carbon cycle by delaying the return of carbon to the atmosphere for decades to centuries. Together, these refinements would help to illuminate pathways toward meeting energy demand with the longest-possible delay in returning carbon to the atmosphere and without adding ancient sources to the pool of carbon cycling through aquatic ecosystems.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microbial Pathways for Cost-Effective Low-Carbon Renewable Indigoidine

Indigoidine is a bioadvantaged platform molecule with diverse applications, including use as a textile dye, biotransistor, biosolar cell, biosensor, and food coloring. There are multiple microbial hosts and carbon sources that can be used and optimized for its production, yet there is limited guidance for which options have the greatest commercial potential. Here, we consider five different host microbes and combine genome-scale metabolic models with techno-economic and lifecycle assessment models. Pseudomonas putida currently outperforms synthetic indigo production and other indigoidine-producing hosts, using glucose, xylose, and lignin-derived aromatics to produce indigoidine at a minimum selling price of $2.9/kg and a greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint of 3.5 kgCO 2e /kg. Optimizing pathways-achieving 90% of the theoretical indigoidine yield from sugars and aromatics-can reduce costs 6-7-fold and GHG emissions 3-10-fold. From a cost perspective, microbes that co-utilize aromatics are advantageous, while selecting hosts that coproduce other value-added molecules can reduce GHG emissions. System-wide improvements and the use of a low-cost, low-carbon nitrogen source are crucial for commercial viability in all cases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment

The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper, we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an analysis leveraging various integrated assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). Furthermore, we find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the future transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, models project that in 2100 bioenergy can provide on average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This makes up 9–62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100 (ranging from 2 to 44%), compared to 10% (0–30%) for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 306 to 776 out of 1,000 GtCO 2 ). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Life cycle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of ammonia production from renewable resources and industrial by-products

Conventionally, ammonia is produced from natural gas via steam methane reforming (SMR), water-gas shift reaction, and the Haber–Bosch process. The process uses fossil natural gas, which leads to 2.6 metric tons of life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per metric ton of ammonia produced. With ammonia being the second most produced chemical in the world, its production accounts for approximately 2% of worldwide fossil energy use and generates over 420 million tons of CO 2 annually. To reduce its carbon intensity, ammonia synthesis relying on renewable energy or utilizing by-products from industrial processes is of interest. In this work, we conduct a life cycle analysis of conventional and alternative ammonia production pathways by tracking energy use and emissions in all conversion stages, from the primary material and energy resources to the ammonia plant gates. Of all the alternative pathways, obtaining N 2 from cryogenic distillation and H 2 from low-temperature electrolysis using renewable electricity has the lowest cradle-to-plant-gate GHG emissions, representing a 91% decrease from the conventional SMR pathway.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Controls on Soil Organic Matter Degradation and Subsequent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across a Permafrost Thaw Gradient in Northern Sweden

Warming-induced permafrost thaw could enhance microbial decomposition of previously stored soil organic matter (SOM) to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. The environmental parameters regulating microbe-organic matter interactions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in northern permafrost peatlands are however still largely unknown. The objective of this work is to understand controls on SOM degradation and its impact on porewater GHG concentrations across the Stordalen Mire, a thawing peat plateau in Northern Sweden. Here, we applied high-resolution mass spectrometry to characterize SOM molecular composition in peat soil samples from the active layers of a Sphagnum-dominated bog and rich fen sites in the Mire. Microbe-organic matter interactions and porewater GHG concentrations across the thaw gradient were controlled by aboveground vegetation and soil pH. An increasingly high abundance of reduced organic compounds experiencing greater humification rates due to enhanced microbial activity were observed with increasing thaw, in parallel with higher CH 4 and CO 2 porewater concentrations. Bog SOM however contained more Sphagnum-derived phenolics, simple carbohydrates, and organic- acids. The low degradation of bog SOM by microbial communities, the enhanced SOM transformation by potentially abiotic mechanisms, and the accumulation of simple carbohydrates in the bog sites could be attributed in part to the low pH conditions of the system associated with Sphagnum mosses. We show that Gibbs free energy of C half reactions based on C oxidation state for OM can be used as a quantifiable measure for OM decomposability and quality to enhance current biogeochemical models to predict C decomposition rates. We found a direct association between OM chemical diversity and δ 13 C-CH 4 in peat porewater; where higher substrate diversity was positively correlated with enriched δ 13 C-CH 4 in fen sites. Oxidized sulfur-containing compounds, produced by Sphagnum, were further hypothesized to control GHG emissions by acting as electron acceptors for a sulfate-reducing electron transport chain, inhibiting methanogenesis in peat bogs. These results suggest that warming-induced permafrost thaw might increase organic matter lability, in subset of sites that become wetlands, and shift biogeochemical processes toward faster decomposition with an increasing proportion of carbon released as CH 4 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Diesel-like Fuels, Combustion, and Emissions

The need to reduce the carbon footprint from medium- and heavy-duty diesel engines is clear; low-carbon biofuels are a powerful means to achieve this. Liquid fuels are rapidly deployed because existing infrastructure can be utilized for their production, transport, and distribution. Their impact is unique as they can decrease the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of existing vehicles and in applications resistant to electrification. However, introducing new diesel-like bio-blends into the market is very challenging. At a minimum, it requires a comprehensive understanding of the life-cycle GHG emissions of the fuels, the implications for refinery optimization and economics, the fuel’s impact on the infrastructure, the effect on the combustion performance of current and future vehicle fleets, and finally the implications for exhaust aftertreatment systems and compliance with emissions regulations. Such understanding is sought within the Co-Optima project.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

GHG policy impacts for Seattle’s buildings: targets, timing, and scope

Many US cities are addressing climate change by setting goals to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by a specified amount within a specified time period. In order to achieve these goals, reducing emissions from existing buildings is crucial. Many cities are passing legislation to target existing buildings through benchmarking, auditing, retuning, or energy or emissions performance standards. As cities design legislation, they must consider the timing of the policies, how to prioritize building types and sizes, and how these design decisions will impact the city’s emissions. This paper addresses these questions for one particular US city: Seattle, Washington. A model of Seattle’s building stock was created with benchmarking and tax assessor data. It was then used to predict GHG emissions reductions due to different policy implementations for existing commercial and multifamily buildings. Key findings are: (1) the proposed emissions policy is expected to reduce cumulative emissions from buildings by 19% between 2020 and 2050; (2) delaying the implementation of the policy by five years could limit savings to 12%; and (3) including smaller buildings in the policy could increase savings to 34%. The lessons learned and how this can be used by other cities are discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Building Life-Cycle Analysis with the GREET Building Module: Methodology, Data, and Case Studies

To holistically address building sustainability, Argonne National Laboratory has expanded its Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) life-cycle model with a new GREET Building Module. This report documents life-cycle analysis (LCA) methodology and foreground data that Argonne National Laboratory compiles and develops to address embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy impacts of a wide range of envelope and structural building materials for new construction and retrofits. The methodology and data form the backbone of the GREET Building Module. This research effort focuses on developing consistent LCA methodology that conforms to building LCA standards such as the EN 15978 to address embodied GHG emissions and energy impacts of building materials/technologies. We document detailed foreground data for selected building materials and building components that are common for building construction. To test the LCA methodology and the GREET Building Module, this report includes case studies of insulation materials and wall panels for residential building retrofit. We have developed a separate document as a User Guide for understanding and applying the GREET Building Module to conduct detailed, process-level LCA of embodied carbon and energy impacts of emerging building materials and technology solutions that of interest to the Building Technologies Office (BTO) of the US Department of Energy, researchers, and industry stakeholders.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Growing Intermediate Winter Oilseed Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production

Ensuring an adequate supply of feedstock is a key challenge to achieving a significant production volume of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). One promising feedstock for SAFs is intermediate winter oilseeds added to existing crop production as alternatives to the winter fallow period. In this work, three intermediate winter oilseed crops─camelina ( Camelina sativa L. Crantz .), carinata ( Brassica carinata ), and pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense L .)─are evaluated for their life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when harvested and processed into hydroprocessed renewable jet (HRJ). We evaluate solvent extraction (SE) and mechanical pressing as alternative oil extraction methods and examine the impacts of various allocation methods used in the oil extraction process. The GHG emissions reduction potential of camelina-, carinata-, and pennycress-derived HRJs are 50.4%, 65.2%, and 65.7%, respectively, compared to petroleum jet fuel, with SE as an oil extraction method and under mass-based allocation. Combined with the estimated production potential of camelina, carinata, and pennycress as intermediate winter oilseed, 2.5 billion gallons of HRJ can be produced annually, and the total GHG savings could amount to 19.3 million tons when these HRJs replace petroleum jet fuels. In addition, we collect literature information to assess the impacts of these intermediate winter oilseeds on indirect land use change emissions and soil organic carbon sequestration potentials.

camelina↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Returns to Land and Greenhouse Gas Savings from Producing Energy Crops on Conservation Reserve Program Land

Using land already enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in the eastern region of the U.S. for producing energy crops for bioenergy while reducing land rental payments offers the potential for lowering the program costs, increasing returns to CRP landowners, and displacing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuels. We develop an integrated modeling approach to analyze the combination of biomass prices and CRP land rental payment reductions that can incentivize energy crop production on CRP land and its potential to increase soil carbon stocks and displace fossil fuel emissions. Here, we find that conversion of 3.4 million ha in the CRP can be economically viable at a minimum biomass price of 75 Mg –1 with full CRP land rental payment or at 100 Mg –1 with 75% of this land rental payment; this conversion can result in savings of 0.52 and 1.25 billion Mg CO 2 -eq in life-cycle emissions through the displacement of energy-equivalent fossil fuels and coal-based electricity, respectively, and an additional 0.11 billion Mg CO 2 -eq soil carbon sequestration relative to the status quo, with CRP left unharvested over the 2016–2030 period. The soil carbon debt due to the transition from unharvested CRP land to energy crops is short-lived and more than offset by the reduction in fossil fuel emissions. The net discounted benefits from producing energy crops on CRP land through a reduced need for government payments to maintain existing enrollment, higher returns to CRP landowners, and the value of the reduction in GHG emissions could be as high as 16–30 billion by using them for cellulosic biofuels to displace gasoline and 35–68 billion by displacing coal-based electricity over the 2016–2030 period if biomass prices are 75–125 Mg –1 and land rental payments are reduced by 25%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗