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DOE OSTI2022

The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment

The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper, we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an analysis leveraging various integrated assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). Furthermore, we find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the future transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, models project that in 2100 bioenergy can provide on average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This makes up 9–62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100 (ranging from 2 to 44%), compared to 10% (0–30%) for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 306 to 776 out of 1,000 GtCO 2 ). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Life cycle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of ammonia production from renewable resources and industrial by-products

Conventionally, ammonia is produced from natural gas via steam methane reforming (SMR), water-gas shift reaction, and the Haber–Bosch process. The process uses fossil natural gas, which leads to 2.6 metric tons of life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per metric ton of ammonia produced. With ammonia being the second most produced chemical in the world, its production accounts for approximately 2% of worldwide fossil energy use and generates over 420 million tons of CO 2 annually. To reduce its carbon intensity, ammonia synthesis relying on renewable energy or utilizing by-products from industrial processes is of interest. In this work, we conduct a life cycle analysis of conventional and alternative ammonia production pathways by tracking energy use and emissions in all conversion stages, from the primary material and energy resources to the ammonia plant gates. Of all the alternative pathways, obtaining N 2 from cryogenic distillation and H 2 from low-temperature electrolysis using renewable electricity has the lowest cradle-to-plant-gate GHG emissions, representing a 91% decrease from the conventional SMR pathway.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Controls on Soil Organic Matter Degradation and Subsequent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across a Permafrost Thaw Gradient in Northern Sweden

Warming-induced permafrost thaw could enhance microbial decomposition of previously stored soil organic matter (SOM) to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. The environmental parameters regulating microbe-organic matter interactions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in northern permafrost peatlands are however still largely unknown. The objective of this work is to understand controls on SOM degradation and its impact on porewater GHG concentrations across the Stordalen Mire, a thawing peat plateau in Northern Sweden. Here, we applied high-resolution mass spectrometry to characterize SOM molecular composition in peat soil samples from the active layers of a Sphagnum-dominated bog and rich fen sites in the Mire. Microbe-organic matter interactions and porewater GHG concentrations across the thaw gradient were controlled by aboveground vegetation and soil pH. An increasingly high abundance of reduced organic compounds experiencing greater humification rates due to enhanced microbial activity were observed with increasing thaw, in parallel with higher CH 4 and CO 2 porewater concentrations. Bog SOM however contained more Sphagnum-derived phenolics, simple carbohydrates, and organic- acids. The low degradation of bog SOM by microbial communities, the enhanced SOM transformation by potentially abiotic mechanisms, and the accumulation of simple carbohydrates in the bog sites could be attributed in part to the low pH conditions of the system associated with Sphagnum mosses. We show that Gibbs free energy of C half reactions based on C oxidation state for OM can be used as a quantifiable measure for OM decomposability and quality to enhance current biogeochemical models to predict C decomposition rates. We found a direct association between OM chemical diversity and δ 13 C-CH 4 in peat porewater; where higher substrate diversity was positively correlated with enriched δ 13 C-CH 4 in fen sites. Oxidized sulfur-containing compounds, produced by Sphagnum, were further hypothesized to control GHG emissions by acting as electron acceptors for a sulfate-reducing electron transport chain, inhibiting methanogenesis in peat bogs. These results suggest that warming-induced permafrost thaw might increase organic matter lability, in subset of sites that become wetlands, and shift biogeochemical processes toward faster decomposition with an increasing proportion of carbon released as CH 4 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Diesel-like Fuels, Combustion, and Emissions

The need to reduce the carbon footprint from medium- and heavy-duty diesel engines is clear; low-carbon biofuels are a powerful means to achieve this. Liquid fuels are rapidly deployed because existing infrastructure can be utilized for their production, transport, and distribution. Their impact is unique as they can decrease the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of existing vehicles and in applications resistant to electrification. However, introducing new diesel-like bio-blends into the market is very challenging. At a minimum, it requires a comprehensive understanding of the life-cycle GHG emissions of the fuels, the implications for refinery optimization and economics, the fuel’s impact on the infrastructure, the effect on the combustion performance of current and future vehicle fleets, and finally the implications for exhaust aftertreatment systems and compliance with emissions regulations. Such understanding is sought within the Co-Optima project.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

GHG policy impacts for Seattle’s buildings: targets, timing, and scope

Many US cities are addressing climate change by setting goals to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by a specified amount within a specified time period. In order to achieve these goals, reducing emissions from existing buildings is crucial. Many cities are passing legislation to target existing buildings through benchmarking, auditing, retuning, or energy or emissions performance standards. As cities design legislation, they must consider the timing of the policies, how to prioritize building types and sizes, and how these design decisions will impact the city’s emissions. This paper addresses these questions for one particular US city: Seattle, Washington. A model of Seattle’s building stock was created with benchmarking and tax assessor data. It was then used to predict GHG emissions reductions due to different policy implementations for existing commercial and multifamily buildings. Key findings are: (1) the proposed emissions policy is expected to reduce cumulative emissions from buildings by 19% between 2020 and 2050; (2) delaying the implementation of the policy by five years could limit savings to 12%; and (3) including smaller buildings in the policy could increase savings to 34%. The lessons learned and how this can be used by other cities are discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Building Life-Cycle Analysis with the GREET Building Module: Methodology, Data, and Case Studies

To holistically address building sustainability, Argonne National Laboratory has expanded its Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) life-cycle model with a new GREET Building Module. This report documents life-cycle analysis (LCA) methodology and foreground data that Argonne National Laboratory compiles and develops to address embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy impacts of a wide range of envelope and structural building materials for new construction and retrofits. The methodology and data form the backbone of the GREET Building Module. This research effort focuses on developing consistent LCA methodology that conforms to building LCA standards such as the EN 15978 to address embodied GHG emissions and energy impacts of building materials/technologies. We document detailed foreground data for selected building materials and building components that are common for building construction. To test the LCA methodology and the GREET Building Module, this report includes case studies of insulation materials and wall panels for residential building retrofit. We have developed a separate document as a User Guide for understanding and applying the GREET Building Module to conduct detailed, process-level LCA of embodied carbon and energy impacts of emerging building materials and technology solutions that of interest to the Building Technologies Office (BTO) of the US Department of Energy, researchers, and industry stakeholders.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Growing Intermediate Winter Oilseed Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production

Ensuring an adequate supply of feedstock is a key challenge to achieving a significant production volume of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). One promising feedstock for SAFs is intermediate winter oilseeds added to existing crop production as alternatives to the winter fallow period. In this work, three intermediate winter oilseed crops─camelina ( Camelina sativa L. Crantz .), carinata ( Brassica carinata ), and pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense L .)─are evaluated for their life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when harvested and processed into hydroprocessed renewable jet (HRJ). We evaluate solvent extraction (SE) and mechanical pressing as alternative oil extraction methods and examine the impacts of various allocation methods used in the oil extraction process. The GHG emissions reduction potential of camelina-, carinata-, and pennycress-derived HRJs are 50.4%, 65.2%, and 65.7%, respectively, compared to petroleum jet fuel, with SE as an oil extraction method and under mass-based allocation. Combined with the estimated production potential of camelina, carinata, and pennycress as intermediate winter oilseed, 2.5 billion gallons of HRJ can be produced annually, and the total GHG savings could amount to 19.3 million tons when these HRJs replace petroleum jet fuels. In addition, we collect literature information to assess the impacts of these intermediate winter oilseeds on indirect land use change emissions and soil organic carbon sequestration potentials.

camelina↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Returns to Land and Greenhouse Gas Savings from Producing Energy Crops on Conservation Reserve Program Land

Using land already enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in the eastern region of the U.S. for producing energy crops for bioenergy while reducing land rental payments offers the potential for lowering the program costs, increasing returns to CRP landowners, and displacing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuels. We develop an integrated modeling approach to analyze the combination of biomass prices and CRP land rental payment reductions that can incentivize energy crop production on CRP land and its potential to increase soil carbon stocks and displace fossil fuel emissions. Here, we find that conversion of 3.4 million ha in the CRP can be economically viable at a minimum biomass price of 75 Mg –1 with full CRP land rental payment or at 100 Mg –1 with 75% of this land rental payment; this conversion can result in savings of 0.52 and 1.25 billion Mg CO 2 -eq in life-cycle emissions through the displacement of energy-equivalent fossil fuels and coal-based electricity, respectively, and an additional 0.11 billion Mg CO 2 -eq soil carbon sequestration relative to the status quo, with CRP left unharvested over the 2016–2030 period. The soil carbon debt due to the transition from unharvested CRP land to energy crops is short-lived and more than offset by the reduction in fossil fuel emissions. The net discounted benefits from producing energy crops on CRP land through a reduced need for government payments to maintain existing enrollment, higher returns to CRP landowners, and the value of the reduction in GHG emissions could be as high as 16–30 billion by using them for cellulosic biofuels to displace gasoline and 35–68 billion by displacing coal-based electricity over the 2016–2030 period if biomass prices are 75–125 Mg –1 and land rental payments are reduced by 25%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Times (and the Grid) are A-Changin'

<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: "Neue Plak", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(111, 114, 135);">This webinar highlighted two datasets that provide forward-looking projections of electric grid GHG emissions for the United States. These data sets were created to help present-day analyses and decision-support tools incorporate what we know about the ongoing evolution of the U.S. electric grid. <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: "Neue Plak", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(111, 114, 135);">Additionally, the webinar compared these two databases to other data sources to summarize differences (i.e., attributional versus consequential emissions rates, age and source of underlying data, regionalization approach, and boundary conditions) and highlighted the value and need for expert guidance when an analyst or developer is choosing how to represent electric-sector GHG emissions. <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: "Neue Plak", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(111, 114, 135);">This webinar was intended to set the stage for ACLCA roundtable events to further discuss these issues.

Jamieson, Matthew↗

DOE OSTI2023

Think before you throw! An analysis of behavioral interventions targeting PET bottle recycling in the United States

The United States generates 42 Mt of plastic waste each year and is one of the biggest contributors to ocean plastic waste. Consequently, plastic has become synonymous with the linear economy, and many scholars are studying and proposing circular economy solutions to mitigate plastic pollution. Recycling has received much attention from both social sciences and engineering as a circular economy strategy, but no study has yet quantified how behavioral interventions could asymmetrically affect different populations. Here, this study combines agent-based modeling, material flow analysis, system dynamics, and life cycle assessment to assess the effect of four behavioral interventions on the collection rates of polyethylene terephthalate bottle waste, displaced virgin plastic manufacturing, and avoided greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results show that, while behavioral interventions would require about 300–900 GJ of additional energy at end-of-life due to improved collection rates, they would avoid about 500–700 thousand metric tons of GHG emissions. Results also illustrate the importance of habits in disposal behaviors and show that different forms of interventions can be better adapted to particular social contexts than others. While the circular economy and its application to plastic waste should certainly not be restricted to recycling, this study demonstrates that improved collection rates and recycling technologies can contribute to reducing the amount of plastic waste polluting our oceans.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Energy, greenhouse gas, and water life cycle analysis of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide monohydrate from brine and ore resources and their use in lithium ion battery cathodes and lithium ion batteries

Life cycle analyses (LCAs) were conducted for battery-grade lithium carbonate (Li 2 CO 3 ) and lithium hydroxide monohydrate (LiOH·H 2 O) produced from Chilean brines (Salar de Atacama) and Australian spodumene ores. The LCA was also extended beyond the production of Li 2 CO 3 and LiOH·H 2 O to include battery cathode materials as well as full automotive traction batteries to observe the effect that the lithium production pathways had on these end products. The LCA here covers material, water, and energy flows associated with lithium acquisition; lithium concentration; production of lithium chemicals, battery cathode powders, and batteries; and associated transportation activities along the supply chain. Based on battery cathode material, the difference in lithium source represents a difference of up to 20% for NMC811 cathode greenhouse gases (GHGs) and up to 45% for NMC622 cathode GHGs. For full batteries, this represents a difference of up to 9% for NMC811 batteries and 20% for NMC622 batteries. Production of Li 2 CO 3 from brine-based resources had less life cycle GHG emissions and freshwater consumption per tonne of Li 2 CO 3 than Li 2 CO 3 from ore-based resources. And LiOH·H 2 O produced from brine-based lithium also had less life cycle GHG emissions and freshwater consumption per tonne of LiOH·H 2 O than LiOH·H 2 O from ore-based resources.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

2022 Project Commercialization and Market Development Awardee: Eocycle America Corporation

Annually, agriculture and related industries contribute approximately $1.2 trillion to the U.S. gross domestic product and 11% of the nation's output of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At the same time, agribusiness operations account for about 30% of energy use worldwide. Distributed wind energy produced on site can power large-scale agricultural, industrial, and commercial operations in windy rural areas, offering cost savings, GHG emissions reductions, and the potential to supply excess electricity to the grid. Despite these benefits, agribusinesses have been slow to embrace the technology. Eocycle America Corporation (Eocycle) plans to develop partnerships with agriculture and related industries and implement a marketing strategy to educate corporate customers about the benefits of distributed wind. Through the CIP initiative, Eocycle will create a marketing plan to raise interest in distributed wind energy among large American and European corporations with operations in rural areas. Campaign goals are to encourage rapid deployment of distributed wind energy on a large scale, as well as to create high-paying energy sector jobs through increased manufacturing, sales, maintenance, and related services. Eocycle plans to identify 15 agriculture-related corporations with the potential for at least 25 turbine sales each.

Competitiveness Improvement Project↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modular Integrated System for Carbon-Neutral Methanol Synthesis Using Direct Air Capture and Carbon-Free Hydrogen Production

This study investigates the development and economic analysis of a modular integrated system for carbon-neutral methanol synthesis, leveraging direct air capture (DAC) and solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC) for carbon dioxide and hydrogen production, respectively. The proposed system integrates a novel building-based DAC process, functionalized solid sorbents, and low-energy SOEC technology, aiming to minimize operational and capital costs. A comparison between the base case system (1,000 t methanol/year) and a scaled-up model (14,758 t methanol/year) reveals significant improvements in efficiency and economic feasibility. The scaled-up system achieves a levelized cost of methanol (LCOM) of $740/t, a 7.5% reduction compared to that of conventional DAC-based systems, while utilizing existing building HVAC infrastructure for air handling. Detailed sensitivity analyses were conducted, evaluating the effects of plant capacity and air flow rate on the LCOM, demonstrating the scalability of the building-based DAC system. The cradle-to-gate life cycle analysis shows that the proposed process using renewable-sourced electricity achieves a 38% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission compared to reported values of green methanol production technologies that use a conventional DAC and a conventional methanol synthesis catalyst. When fossil-sourced electricity is used in the proposed process, it leads to about a 37.5% reduction in GHG emission in comparison to reported values for conventional methanol production technologies using steam methane reforming technology and fossil-sourced electricity.

alcohols↗

DOE OSTI2024

Methane Hydrates in Alaska

This paper was prepared for the National Petroleum Council's Study on Natural Gas GHG Emissions. Natural gas is the largest primary energy produced in the United States and its use is growing. Yet getting this gas to homes and businesses creates greenhouse gas emissions. That’s why reducing emissions from America’s natural gas is an urgent priority that requires collaborative solutions. The National Petroleum Council brought together a diverse group of stakeholders with the expertise to analyze this complex issue and identify ways to reduce natural gas GHG emissions for all future supply and demand scenarios. The result: actionable consensus on ensuring a lower-emission natural gas system. The study’s research charts a course forward to meaningfully reduce emissions from the natural gas system, contributing significantly to the United States’ ability to achieve its climate goals. The report concludes that through the implementation of existing policies, voluntary commitments, technologies, and market mechanisms, a 63% reduction in methane emissions can be achieved by 2030. The report went further to identify an additional pathway that methane emissions decrease by 70% and carbon dioxide emissions reduce by 33% through 2050.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Transformative Pathways for U.S. Industry: Unlocking American Innovation

The United States (U.S.) is undergoing an energy transformation that will depend on continued U.S. innovation. Although U.S. industry has been foundational to the nation’s economic growth and prosperity, it has also given rise to decades’ worth of industrial pollutants in our air and water, which acutely impact the most vulnerable communities, as well as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to climate risk. At the same time, U.S. industry is facing growing competitive pressures. Global investors and financial regulations are increasingly focusing on emissions footprints, governments are developing emissions-based trade adjustments and procurement specifications, and downstream demand for low-carbon products is emerging. Developing cost-competitive solutions to meet these needs provides an opportunity to fundamentally transform U.S. industry and sharpen its competitive edge, while reducing the GHG emissions and adverse environmental and health impacts (see Figure ES-1). Innovation is central to this transformation. Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Industrial Decarbonization, which provides a descriptive fact base on what is needed to reach commercial scale in the marketplace, estimates that over 60% of emissions reduction for the industrial sector will need to come from technologies that are still nascent today. This report, Transformative Pathways for U.S. Industry,3 focuses on the pathways that rely on the nascent and innovative technologies that were too early for consideration in the Pathways to Commercial Liftoff report. Targeted and sustained public and private investment in research, development, demonstration, and deployment is required to catalyze innovation and meet this moment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Smart Manufacturing Pathways for Industrial Decarbonization and Thermal Process Intensification

Rapid decarbonization is fast becoming the primary environmental and sustainability initiative for many economic sectors. Industry consumes more than 30 % of all primary energy in the United States and accounts for nearly 25 % of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. More than 70 % of energy consumed by the industrial sector is related to thermal processes, which are also the largest contributors of carbon emissions, overwhelmingly due to the combustion of fossil fuels. Thermal process intensification (TPI) seeks to dramatically improve the energy performance of thermal systems through technology pillars focusing on alternative energy sources and processes, supplemental technologies, and waste heat management. The impacts of TPI have significant overlap with the goals of industrial decarbonization (ID) that seeks to phase out all GHG emissions from industrial activities. Emerging supplemental technologies such as smart manufacturing (SM) and the industrial internet of things (IoT) enable significant opportunities for the optimization of manufacturing processes. Combining strategies for TPI and ID with SM and IoT can open and enhance existing opportunities for saving time and energy via approaches such as tighter control of temperature zones, better adjustment of thermal systems for variations in production levels and feedstock properties, and increased process throughput. Data collected by smart processes will also enable new advanced solutions such as digital twins and machine learning algorithms to further improve thermal system savings. Herein, this paper examines the individual pathways of TPI, ID, and SM and how the combination of all three can accelerate energy and GHG reductions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Yield, Biogenic Emissions, and Carbon Sequestration in Southeastern Cropping Systems With Winter Carinata

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production from lipids is a technologically mature approach for replacing conventional fossil fuel use in the aviation sector, and there is increasing demand for such feedstocks. The oilseed Brassica carinata (known as Ethiopian mustard or simply carinata) is a promising SAF feedstock that can be grown as a supplemental cash crop over the winter fallow season of various annual crop rotations in the Southeast US, avoiding land use changes and potentially achieving some of the soil carbon sequestration and ecosystem service benefits of winter cover crops. However, carinata may require more intensive management than traditional cover crops, potentially leading to additional soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through increased carbon losses from soil tillage and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from nitrogen fertilizer application. In this work, the 2017 version of the process-based DayCent ecosystem model was used to establish initial expectations for the total regional SAF production potential and associated soil GHG emissions when carinata is integrated as a winter crop into the existing crop rotations across its current suitability range in southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and northern Florida. Using data from academic and industry carinata field trials in the region, DayCent was calibrated to reproduce carinata yield, nitrogen response, harvest index, and biomass carbon-to-nitrogen ratio. The resulting model was then used to simulate the integration of carinata every third winter across all 2.1 Mha of actively cultivated cropland in the study area. The model predicted regional average yields of 2.9–3.0 Mg carinata seed per hectare depending on crop management assumptions. That results in the production of more than two million Mg of carinata seed annually across the study area, enough to supply approximately one billion liters of SAF. Conventional management of carinata led to only modest increases in soil carbon storage that were largely offset by additional N2O emissions. Climate-smart management via adopting no-till carinata establishment or using poultry litter as a nitrogen source resulted in a substantial net soil GHG sink (0.23–0.31 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 , or 0.24–0.32 Mg CO2e per Mg of seed produced) at the farms where carinata is cultivated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Supply Chain Energy and Greenhouse Gas Analysis Using the Materials Flows Through Industry (MFI) Tool: Examination of Alternative Technology Scenarios for the U.S. Chemical Sector

Chemical manufacturing is a large and diverse sector of the U.S. economy, with products, fuels, and a wide assortment of materials used daily by both the public and businesses. Currently, several of the largest volume chemicals produced in the United States rely on fossil fuels as a feedstock, energy source, or both. The list of chemicals includes steam cracking products such as ethylene, propylene, benzene, and xylenes as well as products such as ammonia and methanol. The focus for this work is on platform chemicals that are both produced in the largest volume and have a high potential for subsequent processing into more specialized products. In this study, we explore several new pathways that reduce the overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for each product. These pathways include energy efficiency measures applied to existing production methods, the use of bio‐based fuels and/or feedstocks as new production methods, and electrification of high‐energy‐input stages within current production methods. Scenarios for energy demand and GHG reduction were conducted with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Materials Flows through Industry tool. Projections of the energy demand and GHG emissions in 2030 and 2050 are included, using grid composition projections from the NREL ReEDS model. The alternative scenarios selected showcase the effect of realistic changes the industry could make, focusing on technologies with a high level of technical readiness.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗