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NASA NTRS1994

Observations of lightning in convective supercells within tropical storms and hurricanes

Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning observations from land-based lightning detection networks now allow monitoring this component of the electrical structure of tropical storms and hurricanes within a few hundred kilometers of the United States coastline. Several case studies confirm the long-held opinion that lightning is rather common within the outer rainbands. The general absence of CG lightning within the interior of mature tropical cyclones is also apparent. On the other hand, bursts of CG lightning near the circulation center of developing storms appear to precede periods of further deepening. The CG events are associated with convective supercells, whose anvil canopies can often obscure much of the underlying storm. Near-eyewall CG bursts preceding periods of intensification were noted in Hurricanes Diana (1984) and Florence (1988). A detailed case study of the 1987 unnamed tropical storm that struck the Texas-Louisiana coastline reveals that lightning was associated with two large supercells. These supercells appeared to be the trigger for the development of a closed circulation that formed several hours after the apparent low pressure center made landfall. Further studies of lightning may provide additional insight into the role of convective supercells in tropical storm intensification. It may also provide a useful diagnostic of impending deepening.

Lyons, Walter A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

An experiment in hurricane track prediction using parallel computing methods

The barotropic model is used to explore the advantages of parallel processing in deterministic forecasting. We apply this model to the track forecasting of hurricane Elena (1985). In this particular application, solutions to systems of elliptic equations are the essence of the computational mechanics. One set of equations is associated with the decomposition of the wind into irrotational and nondivergent components - this determines the initial nondivergent state. Another set is associated with recovery of the streamfunction from the forecasted vorticity. We demonstrate that direct parallel methods based on accelerated block cyclic reduction (BCR) significantly reduce the computational time required to solve the elliptic equations germane to this decomposition and forecast problem. A 72-h track prediction was made using incremental time steps of 16 min on a network of 3000 grid points nominally separated by 100 km. The prediction took 30 sec on the 8-processor Alliant FX/8 computer. This was a speed-up of 3.7 when compared to the one-processor version. The 72-h prediction of Elena's track was made as the storm moved toward Florida's west coast. Approximately 200 km west of Tampa Bay, Elena executed a dramatic recurvature that ultimately changed its course toward the northwest. Although the barotropic track forecast was unable to capture the hurricane's tight cycloidal looping maneuver, the subsequent northwesterly movement was accurately forecasted as was the location and timing of landfall near Mobile Bay.

Song, Chang G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Airborne Radar Observations of Hurricane Georges during Landfall over the Dominican Republic

On 22 September 1998 hurricane Georges made landfall on the Dominican Republic (DR). Georges cost the DR at least 500 lives, made more than 155,000 people homeless and caused extensive damage to the country's main industries, tourism and agriculture. There was considerable wind damage, with wind gusts up to 58 m/s in Santa Domingo on the south coast, but most of the damage and deaths resulted from mudslides and the flooding of rivers. While this may have been the worst natural disaster to strike the DR, the sustained rapid storm movement saved the island from worse damage. Georges had previously affected several islands in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, but it had retained much of its circulation strength. Forty raingauge stations across the DR measured rainfall totals from Georges between 0.7 and 41 cm, the latter at the capital Santo Domingo, located on the south coast. At Herrera the maximum 1 h rainfall rate was 72 mm/h. It is suspected that much higher rain rates occurred in DR's mountainous interior. Before landfall the eye was clearly evident in satellite imagery. When the eye moved over southeastern DR, it filled rapidly, and the cloud top height decreased in all storm sectors except in the southern inflow sector, where a long-lived MCS, with a diameter larger than that of the eyewall, slowly became enwrapped in the hurricane circulation. The eye closure was most rapid between 16-18 UTC, when the eyewall circulation felt the mountainous terrain of the Cordillera Central, which rises up to 3,093 m. The estimated central pressure increased from 962 hPa at 15 UTC to 986 hPa at 03Z on 23 Sept, and the maximum sustained surface wind speed decreased from 54 to 36 in s-1 during the same period. The island of Hispaniola has a cross-track width of about 250 km, much wider than the diameter of the eyewall anvil (about 100 km before landfall). So the event can truly be considered to be a landfalling case, even though Georges recovered after crossing Hispaniola, albeit never to the same strength. This talk will summarize satellite and ground observations of Georges, as it passed the DR, and it will focus on EDOP data. In particular, we will try to estimate the rainfall rate over the mountainous terrain of the DR. And we will use detailed sounding data to explain the presence and characteristics of the massive MCS to the south, as well as the upper-level updrafts apparent over this MCS and over the mountains of the DR.

Geerts, B.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Comparison fo CO2 Lidar Backscatter with Particle Size Distribution and GOES-7 Data in Hurricane Juliette

Two NASA/MSFC continuous wave (CW) focused Doppler lidars obtained in-situ high resolution calibrated backscatter measurements in the upper levels of Hurricane Juliette as part of the 1995 NASA/Multicenter Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS) mission on board NASA's DC8 aircraft. These were also intercompared with in-situ cloud particle size distributions obtained from NASA/Ames Research Center's forward scattering spectrometer probe (FSSP), the DC8 aircraft infrared (IR) surface temperature radiometer data, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-7) 11 micrometer IR emission images with their corresponding estimates of cloud top temperature and height. Two traverses of Hurricane Juliette's eye were made off the west coast of Mexico at altitude approx. 11.7 km on 21 September 1995. During this DC8 flight, late stages of eyewall decay-replacement cycles were observed, giving the appearance of an annular eye with clouds in the central region.

Jarzembski, Maurice A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Hurricane Directional Wave Spectrum Spatial Variation at Landfall

On 26 August 1998, hurricane Bonnie was making landfall near Wilmington, NC. The NASA airborne scanning radar altimeter (SRA) carried aboard one of the NOAA WP-3D hurricane hunter aircraft at 2.2 km height documented the sea surface directional wave spectrum in the region between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC. The aircraft ground track included both segments along the shoreline and Pamlico Sound as well as far offshore. An animation of the directional wave spectrum spatial variation at landfall will be presented and contrasted with the spatial variation when Bonnie was in the open ocean on 24 August 1998.

Walsh, E. J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Hurricane Directional Wave Spectrum Spatial Variation at Landfall

Walsh, Edward J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Cloud-Resolving Simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991): Storm Structure and Eyewall Buoyancy

A numerical simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) is conducted using the Penn State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 with a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 Km on the finest nested mesh The model produces a realistic hurricane that intensifies slowly during the period of fine-scale simulation. Time-averaged results reveal the effects of storm motion. vertical shear, beta gyres and deformation forcing on the structure of radial inflow, vertical motion, and precipitation. Instantaneous model fields show that radial inflow in the eyewall is very intense near the surface but transitions to strong low-level outflow near the top of the boundary layer. The low-level structure is modulated by a wavenumber 2 disturbance that rotates around the eyewall at half the speed of the maximum tangential winds and is consistent with a vortex Rossby edge wave. The statistical distribution of vertical velocity in the eyewall indicates that the eyewall is composed of a small number of intense updrafts that account for the majority of the upward mass flux rather than a more gradual and symmetric eyewall circulation, consistent with the concept of hot towers. Tongues of high equivalent potential temperature, Theta(sub e), are seen along the inner edge of the eyewall updraft and within the low-level outflow. This air originates from outside of the eyewall with the highest theta(sub e) air coming from the layer closest to the surface after penetrating closest to the center. Occasionally, high Theta(sub e), air within the eye is drawn into the eyewall updrafts. The high Theta(sub e), air rising within the eyewall is shown to be associated with positive eyewall buoyancy with sufficient convective available potential energy along its path to produce relatively strong convective updrafts. Although the requirements for conditional symmetric instability are met within the eyewall and the air parcel trajectories follow slanted paths, the radial displacement of air parcels in the low-level outflow moves the air parcel sufficiently far away from the upper- warm core that the air becomes unstable to vertical displacements. Hence, convective instability rather than symmetric instability accounts for the stronger updrafts in the eyewall.

Braun, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Midlatitude Cirrus Clouds Derived from Hurricane Nora: A Case Study with Implications for Ice Crystal Nucleation and Shape

Hurricane Nora traveled up the Bala Peninsula coast in the unusually warm El Nino waters of September 1997, until rapidly decaying as it approached Southern California on 24 September. The anvil cirrus blowoff from the final surge of tropical convection became embedded in subtropical flow that advected the cirrus across the western US, where it was studied from the Facility for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (FARS) in Salt Lake City, Utah. A day later, the cirrus shield remnants were redirected southward by midlatitude circulations into the Southern Great Plains, providing a case study opportunity for the research aircraft and ground-based remote sensors assembled at the Clouds and Radiation Testbed (CART) site in northern Oklahoma. Using these comprehensive resources and new remote sensing cloud retrieval algorithms, the microphysical and radiative cloud properties of this unusual cirrus event are uniquely characterized. Importantly, at both the FARS and CART sites the cirrus generated spectacular optical displays, which acted as a tracer for the hurricane cirrus, despite the limited lifetimes of individual ice crystals. Lidar polarization data indicate widespread regions of uniform ice plate orientations, and in situ particle masticator data show a preponderance of pristine, solid hexagonal plates and columns. It is suggested that these unusual aspects are the result of the mode of cirrus particle nucleation, presumably involving the lofting of sea-salt nuclei in thunderstorm updrafts into the upper troposphere. This created a reservoir of haze particles that continued to produce halide-saltcontaminated ice crystals during the extended period of cirrus cloud maintenance. The reference that marine microliters are embedded in the replicas of ice crystals collected over the CART site points to the longevity of marine effects. Various nucleation scenarios proposed for cirrus clouds based on this and other studies, and the implications for understanding cirrus radiative properties or a global scale, are discussed.

Sassen, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS2002

Hurricane Erin September 10, 2001: Comparison of TRMM, AMSU-A and QUIKSCAT Data with an Extensive Aircraft Data Set, and Some Preliminary Results

A main purpose of this study is to compare satellite products from TRMM, AMSU-A and QuikSCAT with a unique, extensive aircraft data set in Category 3 Hurricane Erin on September 10,2001, and to draw some preliminary conclusions from the data. For the first time, dropwinsondes were obtained by the NASA ER-2 aircraft. There were 8 soundings in the eye, core and surroundings radially out to the edge of the Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Additionally, 11 dropwinsondes from the DC-8 aircraft at about 12 km documented the storm outskirts and environment. TRMM made a direct overpass of the eye as did both NOAA-15 and NOM-16 with AMSU on board. Among the most interesting results: Contours of the tropopause height (a first). As expected from earlier fragmentary results, the tropopause was approximately 1 km higher in the core than in the environment. The highest tropopause was about 2 km above the tallest towers in the eyewall, south-southeast of the eye center, suggesting that earlier convective towers had been higher than those measured by EDOP and TRMM during the flights. Surprisingly, the heaviest precipitation was on the opposite side of the eyewall from the tallest convective towers. The warm core was elongated in the vertical, and poorly retrieved from the AMSU-A data by the NESDIS profile retrieval algorithm. The eye of Erin was "dirty". A CCN/CN counter flown on the NOAA P3 at 14.3 km showed a concentration of 1500 aerosol particles per cubic centimeter. This is an order of magnitude higher than a sample in the hurricane environment. TRMM data are used to hypothesize an explanation.

Simpson, J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Variational Continuous Assimilation of TMI and SSM/I Rain Rates: Impact on GEOS-3 Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

We describe a variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm for assimilating tropical rainfall data using moisture and temperature tendency corrections as the control variable to offset model deficiencies. For rainfall assimilation, model errors are of special concern since model-predicted precipitation is based on parameterized moist physics, which can have substantial systematic errors. This study examines whether a VCA scheme using the forecast model as a weak constraint offers an effective pathway to precipitation assimilation. The particular scheme we exarnine employs a '1+1' dimension precipitation observation operator based on a 6-h integration of a column model of moist physics from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system DAS). In earlier studies, we tested a simplified version of this scheme and obtained improved monthly-mean analyses and better short-range forecast skills. This paper describes the full implementation ofthe 1+1D VCA scheme using background and observation error statistics, and examines how it may improve GEOS analyses and forecasts of prominent tropical weather systems such as hurricanes. Parallel assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd show that assimilating 6-h TMI and SSM/I surfice rain rates leads to more realistic storm features in the analysis, which, in turn, provide better initial conditions for 5-day storm track prediction and precipitation forecast. These results provide evidence that addressing model deficiencies in moisture tendency may be crucial to making effective use of precipitation information in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Strong Updraft Feature Associated with Hurricane Earl During Landfall

On 2-3 September 1998 hurricane Earl made landfall along the Gulf of Mexico coast, east of Panama City, FL. The University of Alabama in Huntsville Mobile Integrated Profiling System (MIPS) was located at the airport in Tallahassee, FL and made measurements of Earl with a 915 MHz Doppler wind profiler as the system moved across the Florida panhandle. As the center of Earl approached MIPS, a particularly strong updraft feature, having a magnitude of approx. 15 m/s within the lowest 3.0 km above ground level was associated with a rain band. An analysis of the changes hurricane Earl underwent as it made landfall are presented. Measurements used include surface thermodynamic and pressure observations, lightning data, National Weather Service Doppler Weather Surveillance Radar (WSR-88D) data, and Geostationary Earth Orbiting Satellite (GOES) data. Then an analysis focusing on the boundary layer properties and the updraft feature's depth, intensity and duration as measured by the MIPS 915 MHz Doppler wind profiler are presented.

Roberts, Barry C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Rain, Snow, Hurricanes, and Blizzards: Remote Sensing of Cloud Particles

Hurricanes, blizzards and other weather events are important to understand not only for disaster preparation, but also to track the global energy balance and to improve weather and climate forecasts. For several decades, passive radiometers and active radars on aircraft and satellites have been employed to remotely sense rain rates and the properties of liquid particles. In the past few years the relationships between frozen particles and millimeter-wave observations have become understood well enough to estimate the properties of ice in clouds. This colloquium will start with a broad background of the use of remote sensing of precipitation and then focus on recent research in the estimation of frozen cloud properties, both for ice that will eventually melt into rain and for solid precipitation falling in northern climates. The electromagnetic absorption and scattering properties of liquid rain and frozen particles will be explained. Retrieved cloud particle contents and size distributions for Hurricane Erin (2001 ) and the March 5-6, 2001 New England regional blizzard will be discussed. Future directions and challenges of this work will also be presented.

Gail Skofronick-Jackson↗

NASA NTRS2003

Warm Core Structure of Hurricane Erin Diagnosed from High Altitude Dropsondes during CAMEX-4

A combination multi-aircraft and several satellite sensors were used to examine the core of Hurricane Erin on September 10, 2001, as part of the CAMEX4 program. During the first set of aircraft passes, around 1700 UTC, Erin was still at its maximum intensity with a central pressure of 969 hpa and windspeed of 105 kts (54 m/s). The storm was moving slowly northwestward at 4 m/s, over an increasingly colder sea surface. Three instrumented aircraft, the NOAA P3 with radar, the NASA ER- 2 at 19 km, newly equipped with GPS dropwindsondes, and the NASA DC-8 with dropwindsondes flew in formation across the eye at about 1700 UTC and again 2.5 hrs later around 1930 UTC. The storm had weakened by 13 m/s between the first and second eye penetrations. The warm core had a maximum temperature anomaly of only 11 C, located at 500 hpa, much weaker and lower than active hurricanes. The core appeared to slant rearward above 400 hpa. Even on the first penetration, airborne radar showed that the eye wall cloud towers were dying. The tops fell short of reaching 15 km and a melting band was found throughout. The tropopause had a bulge to 15.8 km elevation (environment approx. 14.4 km) above the dying convection. A feature of Erin at this timt was a pronounced wave-number-one convective asymmetry with all convective activity being confined to the forward quadrants on the left side of the shear vector as calculated from analyses. This is similar to that predicted by the mesoscale numerical models, which also predict that such small amounts of shear would not affect the storm intensity. In Erin, it is remarkable that relatively small shear produced such a pronounced asymmetry in the convection. In addition, horizontal asymmetries in the low-level warm core were identified. Almost certainly, the colder ocean would kill the tall convective towers feeding the warm core, even if wind shear were absent.

Halverson, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Application of SeaWinds Scatterometer and TMI-SSM/I Rain Rates to Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting

Results provided by two different assimilation methodologies involving data from passive and active space-borne microwave instruments are presented. The impact of the precipitation estimates produced by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) in a previously developed 1D variational continuous assimilation algorithm for assimilating tropical rainfall is shown on two hurricane cases. Results on the impact of the SeaWinds scatterometer on the intensity and track forecast of a mid-Atlantic hurricane are also presented. This work is the outcome of a collaborative effort between NASA and NOAA and indicates the substantial improvement in tropical cyclone forecasting that can result from the assimilation of space-based data in global atmospheric models.

Atlas, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2004

Warm Core Structure and Mid-Level Intrusion in Hurricane Bonnie (1998) During Landfalling on 26 August 1998

On 26 August 1998 during CAMEX-3, Hurricane Bonnie was overflown by the NASA ER-2 aircraft instrumented with the EDOP X-Band radar and other instrumentation. Bonnie was an asymmetric storm on this day with several prominent features during its brush with the East coast. One of these features was strong intrusion of dry air on the west side of the storm. During the interaction of this westerly shear with the storm, the precipitation band rotates cyclonically from northwest to the south of the storm center. In this paper, we examine the structure of this dry intrusion and its effect on the storm. The EDOP observations are analyzed along with dropsondes, flight-level observations (NASA DC-8 and NOAA P3), and satellite data. The most apparent feature of the EDOP observations are the strong shears in the interface between the western eyewall updraft, and the dry intrusion. Mammatus are formed along this interface reminiscent of convective rear inflows, and suggestive of intense drying of the air through subsidence. This observation as well as other aspects of the analysis are related to recent numerical simulations of Hurricane Bonnie.

Heymsfield, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998): Water Budget - Part 2

The Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 is used to simulate Hurricane Bonnie at high resolution (2-km spacing) in order to examine budgets of water vapor, cloud condensate, and precipitation. Virtually all budget terms are derived directly from the model (except for the effects of storm motion). The water vapor budget reveals that a majority of the condensation in the eyewall occurs in convective hot towers, while outside of the eyewall most of the condensation occurs in weak updrafts, indicative of a dominance of stratiform precipitation processes. The ocean source of water vapor in the eyewall region is only a very small fraction of that transported inward in the boundary layer inflow or that condensed in the updrafts. In contrast, in the outer regions, the ocean vapor source is larger owing to the larger area, counters the drying effect of low-level subsidence, and enhances the moisture transported in toward the eyewall. In this mature storm, cloud condensate is consumed as rapidly as it is produced. Cloud water peaks at the top of the boundary layer and within the melting layer, where. cooling from melting enhances condensation. Unlike squall lines, in the hurricane, very little condensate produced in the eyewall convection is transported outward into the surrounding precipitation area. Most of the mass ejected outward is likely in the form of small snow particles that seed the outer regions and enhance stratiform precipitation development through additional growth by vapor deposition and aggregation. In addition, artificial source terms for cloud and precipitation mass associated with setting negative mixing ratios, produced as a result of numerical advection errors, to zero are described. Although small at any given point and time, the cumulative effect of these terms contributes an amount of mass equivalent to 13% of the total condensation. Thus, these terms must be accounted for to balance the model budgets and the results suggest the need for improved model numerics.

Braun, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Water Budget of a Simulated Hurricane

The Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 is used to simulate Hurricane Bonnie at high resolution (2-km spacing) in order to examine budgets of water vapor, cloud condensate, and precipitation. Virtually all budget terms are derived directly from the model (except for the effects of storm motion). The water vapor budget reveals that a majority of the condensation in the eyewall occurs in convective hot towers, while outside of the eyewall most of the condensation occurs in weaker updrafts, indicative of a larger role of stratiform precipitation processes. The ocean source of water vapor in the eyewall region is only a very small fraction of that transported inward in the boundary layer inflow or that condensed in the updrafts. In contrast, in the outer regions, the ocean vapor source is larger owing to the larger area, counters the drying effect of low-level subsidence, and enhances the moisture transported in toward the eyewall. In this mature storm, cloud condensate is consumed as rapidly as it is produced. Cloud water peaks at the top of the boundary layer and within the melting layer, where cooling from melting enhances condensation. Unlike in squall lines, in the hurricane, very little condensate produced in the eyewall convection is transported outward into the surrounding precipitation area. Most of the mass ejected outward is likely in the form of small snow particles that seed the outer regions and enhance in situ stratiform precipitation development through additional growth by vapor deposition and aggregation. We examine artificial source terms for cloud and precipitation mass associated with setting to zero negative mixing ratios that arise from numerical advection errors. Although small at any given point and time, the cumulative effect of these terms contributes an amount of mass equivalent to 13% of the total condensation and 15-20% of the precipitation. Thus, these terms must be accounted for to balance the model budgets and the results suggest the need for improved model numerics.

Braun, S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

WRF Simulation of the Genesis of Hurricane Javier (2004) in the Eastern Pacific

The Eastern Pacific has the highest frequency of genesis events per unit area of any region worldwide (Elsberry et al 1987). African easterly waves, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and topographic effects are thought to play roles in the genesis of tropical cyclones there (Frank and Clark 1980, Velasco and Fritsch 1987, Zehnder 1991, Zehnder and Gall 1991; Farfan and Zehnder 1997). Mozer and Zehnder (1996), using dry, idealized simulations of flow past a large-scale three-dimensional mountain range comparable to the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico, showed that upstream flow blocking led to diversion of the flow primarily to the south of the mountains. This flow diversion led to the formation of a low-level, barotropically unstable jet (at a location comparable to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec) and the continuous formation of synoptic-scale vorticity maxima, which they suggested may play a role in tropical cyclogenesis. Farfan and Zehnder (1 997) examined the synoptic-scale circulations that led to the formation of Hurricane Guillermo (1991). Using numerical simulations, they found that flow blocking led to the formation of a low-level easterly jet south of the mountains of Central America and a northeasterly (gap flow) jet over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which combined with the flow associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to produce a closed cyclonic circulation in the location of Guillermo s formation. As will be discussed in this paper, the evolution of the flow field that was associated with the genesis of Hurricane Javier was similar to that described in Farfan and Zehnder (1997), with well-defined topographic flow features. Here, using a high- resolution simulation with the WRF model, we investigate whether these topographically induced flows played a significant role in the genesis of Javier.

Braun, Scott A.↗