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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

A Discussion on Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation Applied to Prognostics of Electronics Components

This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management, and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function and the true remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for the two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

Celaya, Jose R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Investigations Using Laboratory Testbeds to Interpret Flight Instrument Datasets from Mars Robotic Missions

The Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science Directorate at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) has laboratory instrumentation that mimic the capabilities of corresponding flight instruments to enable interpretation of datasets returned from Mars robotic missions. The lab instruments have been and continue to be applied to datasets for the Moessbauer Spectrometer (MB) on the Mars Exploration Rovers (MER), the Thermal & Evolved Gas Analyzer (TEGA) on the Mars Phoenix Scout, the CRISM instrument on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Missions and will be applied to datasets for the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM), Chemistry and Mineralogy (CheMin) and Chemistry & Camera (ChemCam) instruments onboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The laboratory instruments can analyze analog samples at costs that are substantially lower than engineering models of flight instruments, but their success to enable interpretation of flight data depends on how closely their capabilities mimic those of the flight instrument. The JSC lab MB instruments are equivalent to the MER instruments except without flight qualified components and no reference channel Co-57 source. Data from analog samples were critical for identification of Mg-Fe carbonate at Gusev crater. Fiber-optic VNIR spectrometers are used to obtain CRISM-like spectral data over the range 350-2500 nm, and data for Fephyllosilicates show irreversible behavior in the electronic transition region upon dessication. The MB and VNIR instruments can be operated within chambers where, for example, the absolute H2O concentration can be measured and controlled. Phoenix's TEGA consisted of a calorimeter coupled to a mass spectrometer (MS). The JSC laboratory testbed instrument consisted of a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) coupled to a MS configured to operate under total pressure (12 mbar), heating rate (20 C/min), and purge gas composition (N2) analogous to the flight TEGA. TEGA detected CO2 release at both low (400-680 C) and high (725-820 C) temperature and an endothermic reaction in concert with the high temperature release. The high-temperature thermal decomposition is consistent with calcite, dolomite, or ankerite, (3-6 wt.%) or any combination of these phase based upon laboratory testbed experiments. Recent laboratory experiments suggest that the low temperature CO2 release was caused by a reaction between calcium carbonate and hydrated magnesium perchlorate; although, CO2 release by the oxidation of organic materials and Fe-/Mg-rich carbonates cannot be ruled out. MSL landed in Gale crater on August 5, 2012. Although numerous analog samples have been analyzed on the JSC laboratory testbeds, no SAM, CheMin, or ChemCam analyses have been acquired by MSL to date. The JSC SAM laboratory testbed consists of a thermal analyzer coupled with a MS configured to operate under total pressure (30 mbar), heating rate (35 C/min), and purge gas composition (He) analogous to the flight SAM. The CheMin and ChemCam laboratory testbeds were developed and built by inXitu, Inc. and Los Alamos National Laboratory, respectively, to acquire datasets relevant to the MSL CheMin and ChemCam flight instruments.

Ming, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms Based on Kalman Filter Estimation

This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process, and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

Galvan, Jose Ramon↗
NASA NTRS2013

Geologic Interpretation of Data Sets Collected by Planetary Analog Geology Traverses and by Standard Geologic Field Mapping: A Comparison Study - Part 1

Geologic maps integrate the distributions, contacts, and compositions of rock and sediment bodies as a means to interpret local to regional formative histories. Applying terrestrial mapping techniques to other planets is challenging because data is collected primarily by orbiting instruments, with infrequent, spatiallylimited in situ human and robotic exploration. Although geologic maps developed using remote data sets and limited "Apollo-style" field access likely contain inaccuracies, the magnitude, type, and occurrence of these are only marginally understood. This project evaluates the interpretative and cartographic accuracy of both field- and remote-based mapping approaches by comparing two 1:24,000 scale geologic maps of the San Francisco Volcanic Field (SFVF), north-central Arizona. The first map is based on traditional field mapping techniques, while the second is based on remote data sets, augmented with limited field observations collected during NASA Desert Research & Technology Studies (RATS) 2010 exercises. The RATS mission used Apollo-style methods not only for pre-mission traverse planning but also to conduct geologic sampling as part of science operation tests. Cross-comparison demonstrates that the Apollo-style map identifies many of the same rock units and determines a similar broad history as the field-based map. However, field mapping techniques allow markedly improved discrimination of map units, particularly unconsolidated surficial deposits, and recognize a more complex eruptive history than was possible using Apollo-style data. Further, the distribution of unconsolidated surface units was more obvious in the remote sensing data to the field team after conducting the fieldwork. The study raises questions about the most effective approach to balancing mission costs with the rate of knowledge capture, suggesting that there is an inflection point in the "knowledge capture curve" beyond which additional resource investment yields progressively smaller gains in geologic knowledge.

Eppler, Dean B.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Experimental Alteration of Basalt to Support Interpretation of Remote Sensing and In Situ Meausrements from Mars

Major occurrences of hydrous alteration minerals on Mars have been found in Noachian impact craters formed in basaltic targets and detected using visible/near infrared (VNIR) spectroscopy. Until recently phyllosilicates were detected only in craters in the southern hemisphere [1, 2]. However, it has been reported that at least nine craters in the northern plains apparently excavated thick layers of lava and sediment to expose phyllosilicates [3] as well. The MER (Mars Exploration Rovers) rovers previously reported results of in situ measurement indicating the presence of alteration minerals on Mars [4,5] and it was recently reported that the Mars Curiosity rover has detected alteration phases in situ at Yellowknife Bay in Gale crater as well [6,7]. An important discovery for Mars geochronology is that the Chemistry and Mineralogy (CheMin) x-ray diffraction (XRD) instrument on Curiosity detected phyllosilicates indicating that phyllosilicate formation on Mars extended beyond the Noachian Epoch [8]. These discoveries indicate that Mars was globally altered by water in the past but does not constrain formation conditions for alteration phase occurrences, which have important implications for the evolution of the surface and the biological potential on Mars. Understanding the alteration assemblages produced by a range of conditions is vital for the interpretation of phyllosilicate spectral signatures as well as in situ measurements and to decipher the environment and evolution of early Mars. The martian surface has been intensely altered by meteorite impacts whose effects include brecciation and melting of target materials as well as the initiation of hydrothermal circulation in a hydrous target [9,10,11,12]. Impact effects may facilitate aqueous alteration of a basaltic target because the rate of silicate dissolution is a function of the degree of crystallinity, surface area, and temperature. The resultant alteration mineralogies from shocked basaltic target material are a function of the original mineral assemblage in the parent rocks, the chemistry of fluids that interacted with the rocks, and physico-chemical conditions (pH, temperatures, and pressure) during the time of mineral formation. Understanding the alteration assemblages produced by a range of conditions is vital for the interpretation of phyllosilicate spectral signatures and to decipher the environment and evolution of early Mars, and especially for identifying habitable niches in which life could be initiated and sustained. No experimentally controlled and well characterized analog materials that simulate martian shock metamorphism and alteration conditions currently exist for calibrating either remote sensing or in situ measurements of Mars. A series of experiments was initiated to assess the effects of systematic changes in the physico-chemical conditions on Mars analog materials thereby providing samples to ground-truth Mars remote sensing observations from CRISM (Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars) and in situ measurements from Opportunity's Mössbauer and Curiosity's CHEMIN (Chemistry and Mineralogy X-Ray Diffraction/XRay Fluorescence) instruments. Results of initial experimental runs as analysed by SEM-EDS (Secondary Electron Microscopy -Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy) and X-ray Diffraction (XRD) analysis are reported here and lay the foundation for comparison with shocked and altered samples that will be characterized in the next phase of this work.

Bell, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Interpretation of CHAMP Magnetic Anomaly Data over the Pannonian Basin Region Using Lower Altitude Horizontal Gradient Data

The ESA SWARM mission will have three earth orbiting magnetometer bearing satellites one in a high orbit and two side-by-side in lower orbits. These latter satellites will record a horizontal magnetic gradient. In order to determine how we can use these gradient measurements for interpretation of large geologic units we used ten years of CHAMP data to compute a horizontal gradient map over a section of southeastern Europe with our goal to interpret these data over the Pannonian Basin of Hungary.

CHAMP↗
NASA NTRS2002

Reflectance Spectra of Titan Tholins at Cryogenic Temperatures and Implications for Compositional Interpretation of Red Objects in the Outer Solar System

We report the visual and near-infrared (0.4-2.5 micron) laboratory bi-directional reflectance of Titan tholin at cryogenic temperatures (approx. 100-300 K). When compared with room temperature measurements, the visual and near-infrared color of Titan tholin becomes slightly redder by approx. 5% at low temperatures in the 0.4-1.3 micron region. We estimate the influence of these colr changes on the interpretation of the Centaur Pholus and find that the modest color changes will not significantly alter existing interpretations.

Roush, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Interpreting Space-Based Trends in Carbon Monoxide with Multiple Models

We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of timedependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000-2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model-observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

carbon monoxide↗
NASA NTRS2017

Binary Source Microlensing Event OGLE-2016-BLG-0733: Interpretation of a Long-Term Asymmetric Perturbation

In the process of analyzing an observed light curve, one often confronts various scenarios that can mimic the planetary signals causing difficulties in the accurate interpretation of the lens system. In this paper, we present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-0733. The light curve of the event shows a long-term asymmetric perturbation that would appear to be due to a planet. From the detailed modeling of the lensing light curve, however, we find that the perturbation originates from the binarity of the source rather than the lens. This result demonstrates that binary sources with roughly equal-luminosity components can mimic long-term perturbations induced by planets with projected separations near the Einstein ring. The result also represents the importance of the consideration of various interpretations in planet-like perturbations and of high-cadence observations for ensuring the unambiguous detection of the planet.

microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-0733↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Physical Interpretation of the Titius-Bode Rule and Its Connection to the Closed Orbits of Bertrand's Theorem

We consider the geometric Titius-Bode rule for the semimajor axes of planetary orbits. We derive an equivalent rule for the midpoints of the segments between consecutive orbits along the radial direction and we interpret it physically in terms of the work done in the gravitational field of the Sun by particles whose orbits are perturbed around each planetary orbit. On such energetic grounds, it is not surprising that some exoplanets in multiple-planet extrasolar systems obey the same relation. However, it is surprising that this simple interpretation of the Titius-Bode rule also reveals new properties of the bound closed orbits predicted by Bertrand's theorem, which has been known since 1873.

Titus-Bode rule↗
NASA NTRS2019

Spectral Interpretation of Magmatic Evolution, Oxidation, and Crystallinity in a Volcanic Planetary Analog System

Volcanic surfaces are common and varied throughout the terrestrial planets. Remote spectroscopy is often the only method for determining surface chemistry and mineralogy of such provinces, and is thus critical for understanding petrologic processes and constraining planetary interior evolution and chemistry. Natural volcanic systems exhibit variability in magmatic chemical evolution, crystallinity, oxidation, and eruption-related alteration (e.g. hydrothermal). The extent to which spectroscopy can identify these characteristics alongside each other is thus a key question for interpreting volcanic processes from orbit. While the effects of each of these on visible/near infrared (VNIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) spectra of igneous rocks has been studied separately to varying degrees, their combined spectral effects (and interpretability of such spectra) are understudied.

Scudder, N. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation-Aided Design and Interpretation of Results of Microgravity-Based Solidification Experiments

The preparation and interpretation of microgravity experiments conducted on the International Space Station (ISS) can be challenging because of the remote location of the equipment. Although a “ground unit” is typically available on Earth, it is not located in the laboratory of the principal investigator. Furthermore, test experiments in the ground unit cannot fully duplicate heat transfer conditions of the weightless environment, and thus be a reliable reference for experiment design. Under such conditions, numerical simulations are a valuable tool both for preparing the experiments and interpreting the results obtained under terrestrial and micro-gravity conditions. In this work, we developed a detailed 3D model of the “SUBSA” furnace located at the ISS, and demonstrate its use in our present investigation which includes melt growth and vapor growth of InI crystals on the ISS. In 2002, the SUBSA furnace was designed and built for the growth of InSb crystals in the Microgravity Science Glovebox (MSG) at the ISS. The SUBSA furnace features a transparent section without heating elements, where the axial temperature gradient is high. In our present investigation, we have used the same furnace to grow four InI crystals from the melt, and two InI crystals from the vapor phase (2018-2021). InI crystals have ~20 times lower thermal conductivity than InSb crystals. As a result, during melt growth, the InI crystals were exposed to extremely high temperature gradients. To reduce the axial temperature gradient, we added external jackets made from high thermal conductivity material to the growth ampoules. The SUBSA furnace could not be modeled as asymmetric because of its rectangular shape and right-angled transparent section, which contains a convoluted geometry. The rectangular shape of the transparent section further complicates modelling of radiative heat transfer, which dominates in the zone. At present, numerical simulations are being conducted to resolve an apparent discrepancy between the readings of the 5 thermocouples located in the SUBSA furnace, and the observed position of the solid and molten material. The 3D simulation will be presented, along with the calibration and growth experiment results conducted in microgravity and in the SUBSA ground unit. The developed model should be useful for upcoming microgravity investigations planned to be conducted in the SUBSA facility.

V Riabov↗
NASA NTRS2023

Another Geometric Interpretation of Cramer’s Rule

We develop a geometric interpretation of Cramer’s rule as a generalization of projection onto orthogonal basis vectors using the rows of the adjugate. This interpretation makes connections between elementary linear algebra concepts like the solution to linear equations, inner products, and projections. Such connections are useful for introducing broader concepts related to Hilbert spaces and geometric algebras like Grassman algebra. Such connections were essential for the author’s mathematical education as an engineer.

linear algebra↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interpretable Tree-Based and Graph Neural Network Approaches for Novel Solid State Electrolyte Design

All-solid-state batteries with Li metal anode can address the safety issues surrounding traditional Li-ion batteries as well as the demand for higher energy densities. However, the development of solid electrolytes simultaneously possessing high ionic conductivity and good chemical and electrochemical stabilities has proven to be a challenge. I will present our informatics approach to explore the Li compound space for promising solid electrolytes using high-throughput multi-property screening and interpretable machine learning. This is accomplished through the generation of a large database of battery-related materials properties of Li compounds. We use tree-based ensemble learning methods and graph neural network approaches to accurately learn relationships between crystal structures and corresponding thermodynamic and kinetic properties, with interpretability being a major focus. Our models give us the ability to enable rapid discovery and design of novel solid-state battery chemistries.

Materials discovery↗
NASA NTRS2021

KMT-2021-BLG-0322: Severe Degeneracy Between Triple-lens and Higher-order Binary-lens Interpretations

We investigate the microlensing event KMT-2021-BLG-0322, for which the light curve exhibits three distinctive sets of caustic-crossing features. It is found that the overall features of the light curve are approximately described by a binary-lens (2L1S) model, but the model leaves substantial residuals. We test various interpretations with the aim of explaining the residuals. Methods. We find that the residuals can be explained either by considering a nonrectilinear lens-source motion caused by the microlens-parallax and lens-orbital effects or by adding a low-mass companion to the binary lens (3L1S model). The degeneracy between the higher-order 2L1S model and the 3L1S model is very severe, making it difficult to single out a correct solution based on the photometric data. This degeneracy was known before for two previous events (MACHO-97-BLG-41 and OGLE-2013-BLG-0723),which led to the false detections of planets in binary systems, and thus the identification of the degeneracy for KMT-2021-BLG-0322illustrates that the degeneracy can be not only common but also very severe, emphasizing the need to check both interpretations of deviations from 2L1S models. Results. From the Bayesian analysis conducted with the measured lensing observables of the event timescale, angular Einstein radius, and microlens parallax, it was estimated that the binary lens components have masses(M1,M2)=(0.62+0.25−0.26M,0.07+0.03−0.03M), for both2L1S and 3L1S solutions, and the mass of the tertiary lens component according to the 3L1S solution isM3=6.40+2.64−2.78MJ.

Gravitational lensing: micro↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interpretable ML Approaches for Novel Solid State Electrolyte Design

All-solid-state batteries with Li metal anode can address the safety issues surrounding traditional Li-ion batteries as well as the demand for higher energy densities. However, the development of solid electrolytes simultaneously possessing high ionic conductivity and good chemical and electrochemical stabilities has proven to be a challenge. I will present our informatics approach to explore the Li compound space for promising solid electrolytes using high-throughput multi-property screening and interpretable machine learning. This is accomplished through the generation of a large database of battery-related materials properties of Li compounds. We use tree-based ensemble learning methods and graph neural network approaches to accurately learn relationships between crystal structures and corresponding thermodynamic and kinetic properties, with interpretability being a major focus. Our models give us the ability to enable rapid discovery and design of novel solid-state battery chemistries.

Shreyas J Honrao↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia

The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult, deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model [the Regression in Self Organizing Map (REGiS)] is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-h-average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000–11 ozone-season (1 May–30 September) data, calibrated using 2012–14 data, and evaluated using 2015–18 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce skill score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the U.S. national air quality model and operational “expert” forecasts over the evaluation period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.

Nikolay Balashov↗
NASA NTRS2024

Interpretable Machine Learning for Molecular Biosignatures: a Novel Single-Sample Feature Importance Method That Is Sensitive To Statistical Interactions

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) of volatiles (e.g., CO 2 ) promises to be a powerful tool for potential biosignature detection for future missions to ocean worlds (OW) such as Europa and Enceladus. Machine learning (ML) methods for IRMS data could enable science autonomy by onboard prediction of seawater chemistry and biosignature presence. However, ML models are likely to be complex and involve statistical interactions between features (variables), which can make predictions seem opaque and enigmatic. For ML predictions as significant as extraterrestrial biosignatures, we must place extraordinary confidence in models. It is therefore essential that these models make interpretable predictions (i.e., human-understandable) and include false-prediction diagnostics. We achieve high accuracy and interpretability in ML biosignature and seawater chemistry models for OW through a nearest-neighbors feature selection tool that detects statistical interactions between predictors, constructs interaction networks for visualization of selected features working together to make a prediction, and reports single-sample feature importance scores for false-detection diagnostics. Here we develop a novel single-sample nearest-neighbors projected distance regression(ssNPDR) feature selection method that improves upon existing single-sample algorithms through the inclusion of statistical interactions while providing false-prediction diagnostics for ML models.

geochemistry↗