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DOE OSTI2022

Building a machine learning surrogate model for wildfire activities within a global Earth system model

Abstract. Wildfire is an important ecosystem process, influencing land biogeophysical and biogeochemical dynamics and atmospheric composition. Fire-driven loss of vegetation cover, for example, directly modifies the surface energy budget as a consequence of changing albedo, surface roughness, and partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes. Carbon dioxide and methane emitted by fires contribute to a positive atmospheric forcing, whereas emissions of carbonaceous aerosols may contribute to surface cooling. Process-based modeling of wildfires in Earth system land models is challenging due to limited understanding of human, climate, and ecosystem controls on fire counts, fire size, and burned area. Integration of mechanistic wildfire models within Earth system models requires careful parameter calibration, which is computationally expensive and subject to equifinality. To explore alternative approaches, we present a deep neural network (DNN) scheme that surrogates the process-based wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) interface. The DNN wildfire model accurately simulates observed burned area with over 90 % higher accuracy with a large reduction in parameterization time compared with the current process-based wildfire model. The surrogate wildfire model successfully captured the observed monthly regional burned area during validation period 2011 to 2015 (coefficient of determination, R2=0.93). Since the DNN wildfire model has the same input and output requirements as the E3SM process-based wildfire model, our results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning for high accuracy and efficient large-scale land model development and predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and Detection of Future Cyber-Enabled DSM Data Attacks

Demand-Side Management (DSM) is an essential tool to ensure power system reliability and stability. In future smart grids, certain portions of a customer’s load usage could be under the automatic control of a cyber-enabled DSM program, which selectively schedules loads as a function of electricity prices to improve power balance and grid stability. In this scenario, the security of DSM cyberinfrastructure will be critical as advanced metering infrastructure and communication systems are susceptible to cyber-attacks. Such attacks, in the form of false data injections, can manipulate customer load profiles and cause metering chaos and energy losses in the grid. The feedback mechanism between load management on the consumer side and dynamic price schemes employed by independent system operators can further exacerbate attacks. To study how this feedback mechanism may worsen attacks in future cyber-enabled DSM programs, we propose a novel mathematical framework for (i) modeling the nonlinear relationship between load management and real-time pricing, (ii) simulating residential load data and prices, (iii) creating cyber-attacks, and (iv) detecting said attacks. In this framework, we first develop time-series forecasts to model load demand and use them as inputs to an elasticity model for the price-demand relationship in the DSM loop. This work then investigates the behavior of such a feedback loop under intentional cyber-attacks. We simulate and examine load-price data under different DSM-participation levels with three types of random additive attacks: ramp, sudden, and point attacks. We conduct two investigations for the detection of DSM attacks. The first studies a supervised learning approach, with various classification models, and the second studies the performance of parametric and nonparametric change point detectors. Results conclude that higher amounts of DSM participation can exacerbate ramp and sudden attacks leading to better detection of such attacks, especially with supervised learning classifiers. We also find that nonparametric detection outperforms parametric for smaller user pools, and random point attacks are the hardest to detect with any method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nonadiabatic Molecular Dynamics Simulations Based on Time-Dependent Density Functional Tight-Binding Method

Nonadiabatic excited-state molecular dynamics underpin many photophysical and photochemical phenomena, such as exciton dynamics, charge separation and transport. In this work, we present an efficient nonadiabatic molecular dynamic (NAMD) simulation method based on time-dependent density functional tight-binding (TDDFTB) theory. Specifically, the adiabatic electronic structure, an essential NAMD input, is described at the TDDFTB level. Here, the nonadiabatic effects originating from the coupled motions of electrons and nuclei are treated by the trajectory surface hopping algorithm. To improve the computational efficiency, nonadiabatic couplings between excited states within the TDDFTB method are derived and implemented using an analytical approach. Further, the time-dependent nonadiabatic coupling scalars are calculated based on the overlap between molecular orbitals rather than the Slater determinants to speed up the simulations. In addition, the electronic decoherence scheme and a state reassigned unavoided crossings algorithm, which has been implemented in the NEXMD software, are used to improve the accuracy of the simulated dynamics and handle trivial unavoided crossings. Finally, the photoinduced nonadiabatic dynamics of a benzene molecule are simulated to demonstrate our implementation. The results for excited state NAMD simulations of benzene molecule based on TDDFTB method compare well that obtained with numerically expensive time-dependent density functional theory. The proposed methodology provides an attractive theoretical simulation tool for predicting the photophysical and photochemical properties of complex materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Concrete Thermal Energy Storage Enabling Flexible Operation without Coal Plant Cycling

The work described in this report is responsive to the Office of Fossil Energy program “Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation.” The pilot plant built as a result of this project demonstrated the feasibility and performance of a concrete thermal energy storage (CTES) system integrated with a supercritical coal power plant. The 10 MWh electrical (>25 MWh thermal) CTES unit, developed by Storworks Power, was designed to enable flexible operation of coal plants without cycling damage. The project's key technical achievements showcase a significant advancement in energy storage technology. A modular CTES system using 42 “Bolderblocs” units was successfully designed and constructed at Alabama Power’s Plant Gaston Unit 5, with each block containing embedded stainless-steel coils in specialized, cost-effective high-temperature concrete. The system interfaced seamlessly with the plant's 3500 psig (241 barg), 1000°F (538°C) supercritical steam, demonstrating operational flexibility. Over 86 full cycles, the CTES exhibited rapid charging and discharging capabilities, effectively mimicking steam turbine feed conditions and handling varying load profiles and storage durations. Performance validation confirmed the system's ability to consistently meet design target steam conditions of 75 bar-a and ~400°C for nominal baseline discharge. The concrete material withstood repeated thermal cycling without degradation, validating earlier lab-scale tests. Integration of balance of plant components, including a condensate management system with storage tank and air-cooled condenser, minimized plant interfaces and water consumption. A robust control scheme ensured safe, automated operation across various scenarios. Key learnings from the project were invaluable: 1. Initial concrete drying and commissioning procedures were refined for future deployments, enhancing efficiency in subsequent installations. 2. System flexibility exceeded expectations, with rapid response to changing conditions. 3. Design improvements were identified including optimized insulation and piping that will enhance overall system efficiency in future deployments 4. Full cycle thermal roundtrip efficiencies exceeded 88%. While the roundtrip electrical efficiency was somewhat limited by known challenges using input steam, such constraints may be mitigated by swapping steam for hot air as thermal input. 5. A summary of key performance parameters for the pilot test and predicted performance of a full scale commercial system with specified improvements determined from the pilot are shown in Section 8. The project faced challenges, including COVID-19 delays and host plant availability constraints. However, these were overcome through adaptive planning and execution. The successful management of these obstacles demonstrated the resilience and adaptability of the project team and the robustness of the CTES technology. This successful pilot demonstrates the potential for CTES to enhance coal plant flexibility, supporting grid stability as renewable penetration increases. The validated design and operational data provide a solid foundation for scaling up to utility-scale implementations, potentially transforming how thermal plants operate in evolving energy landscapes. The system's ability to rapidly respond to changing grid conditions while maintaining high efficiency makes it a promising solution for balancing intermittent renewable energy sources. Furthermore, the project highlighted the potential for even greater efficiencies in future iterations. The use of air as an input medium could potentially eliminate the limitations observed with steam input, opening new possibilities for energy storage applications beyond coal plant integration. In conclusion, this pilot project not only achieved its primary goals but also uncovered additional benefits and potential applications of the CTES technology. It represents a significant step forward in addressing the challenges of grid stability and flexibility in an increasingly renewable-driven energy landscape.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2022

7.2 kV Three-Port SiC Single-Stage Current-Source Solid-State Transformer With 90 kV Lightning Protection

This article proposes a multiport modular single-stage current-source solid-state transformer (SST) for applications like photovoltaic, energy storage integration, electric vehicle fast charging, data center, etc. The 7.2 kV 50 kVA current-source SST consists of five input-series output-parallel modules, each based on 3.3 kV SiC reverse-blocking MOSFET-plus-diode modules. The proposed SST has some unique features. First, compared to the voltage-source or matrix converter-based SSTs, the current-source SST has a unique advantage of single-stage isolated AC/DC or AC/AC conversion with an inductive DC link, but no medium-voltage (MV) AC experiments have been reported. This article for the first time demonstrates MV AC current-source SST up to 7.5 kV peak. Second, the multiport SST has a buffer port for active power decoupling (APD) or energy storage integration. The double-line-frequency power ripple from single-phase AC grid normally results in a large capacitor size in MV SSTs. The APD scheme is proposed in MV applications for the first time to enable a reduced DC link and the electrolytic capacitor-less SST with high reliability. Third, as a direct grid-connected converter without line-frequency transformer, insulation and protection are critical. A medium-frequency transformer design passes 55 kV basic-insulation level (BIL) and 60 kV high potential dielectrics withstand test with only 0.09% leakage inductance. Importantly, a lightning protection scheme is presented to protect the SST itself from 90 kV BIL impulse. Fourth, the proposed current-source SST topology is a modular soft-switching solid-state transformer (M-S4T) with full-range zero-voltage switching and controlled dv/dt for low electromagnetic interference. Furthermore, these concepts are verified in a three-port M-S4T prototype with forced oil cooling under single-module, stacked-module, steady-state, and dynamic operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Protein C-GeM: A Coarse-Grained Electron Model for Fast and Accurate Protein Electrostatics Prediction

The electrostatic potential (ESP) is a powerful property for understanding and predicting electrostatic charge distributions that drive interactions between molecules. In this study, we compare various charge partitioning schemes including fitted charges, density-based quantum mechanical (QM) partitioning schemes, charge equilibration methods, and our recently introduced coarse-grained electron model, C-GeM, to describe the ESP for protein systems. Furthermore, when benchmarked against high quality density functional theory calculations of the ESP for tripeptides and the crambin protein, we find that the C-GeM model is of comparable accuracy to ab initio charge partitioning methods, but with orders of magnitude improvement in computational efficiency since it does not require either the electron density or the electrostatic potential as input.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mimicking associative learning using an ion-trapping non-volatile synaptic organic electrochemical transistor

Associative learning, a critical learning principle to improve an individual’s adaptability, has been emulated by few organic electrochemical devices. However, complicated bias schemes, high write voltages, as well as process irreversibility hinder the further development of associative learning circuits. Here, by adopting a poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):tosylate/Polytetrahydrofuran composite as the active channel, we present a non-volatile organic electrochemical transistor that shows a write bias less than 0.8 V and retention time longer than 200 min without decoupling the write and read operations. By incorporating a pressure sensor and a photoresistor, a neuromorphic circuit is demonstrated with the ability to associate two physical inputs (light and pressure) instead of normally demonstrated electrical inputs in other associative learning circuits. To unravel the non-volatility of this material, ultraviolet-visible-near-infrared spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and grazing-incidence wide-angle X-ray scattering are used to characterize the oxidation level variation, compositional change, and the structural modulation of the poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):tosylate/Polytetrahydrofuran films in various conductance states. The implementation of the associative learning circuit as well as the understanding of the non-volatile material represent critical advances for organic electrochemical devices in neuromorphic applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Demonstration of Decentralized Physics-Driven Learning

In typical artificial neural networks, neurons adjust according to global calculations of a central processor, but in the brain, neurons and synapses self-adjust based on local information. Contrastive learning algorithms have recently been proposed to train physical systems, such as fluidic, mechanical, or electrical networks, to perform machine-learning tasks from local evolution rules. However, to date, such systems have only been implemented in silico due to the engineering challenge of creating elements that autonomously evolve based on their own response to two sets of global boundary conditions. Here, we introduce and implement a physics-driven contrastive learning scheme for a network of variable resistors, using circuitry to locally compare the response of two identical networks subjected to the two different sets of boundary conditions. Using this method, our system effectively trains itself, optimizing its resistance values without the use of a central processor or external information storage. Once the system is trained for a specified allostery, regression, or classification task, the task is subsequently performed rapidly and automatically by the physical imperative to minimize power dissipation in response to the given voltage inputs. Here, we demonstrate that, unlike typical computers, such learning systems are robust to extreme damage (and thus manufacturing defects) due to their decentralized learning. Our twin-network approach is therefore readily scalable to extremely large or nonlinear networks, where its distributed nature will be an enormous advantage; a laboratory network of only 500 edges will already outpace its in silico counterpart.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Real Time Data Analysis With the ATLAS Trigger at the LHC in Run-2

The trigger selection capabilities of the ATLAS detector have been significantly enhanced for the LHC Run- 2 in order to cope with the higher event rates and with the large number of simultaneous interactions (pile-up) per protonproton bunch crossing. A new hardware system, designed to analyse real time event-topologies at Level-1 came to full use in 2017. A hardware-based track reconstruction system, expected to be used real-time in 2018, is designed to provide track information to the high-level software trigger at its full input rate. The high-level trigger selections are largely relying on offline-like reconstruction techniques, and in some cases multivariate analysis methods. Despite the sudden change in LHC operations during the second half of 2017, which caused an increase in pile-up and therefore also in CPU usage of the trigger algorithms, the set of triggers (so called trigger menu) running online has undergone only minor modifications thanks to the robustness and redundancy of the trigger system, and the use of a levelling luminosity scheme in agreement with LHC and other experiments. Here, this presentation gives a brief yet comprehensive review of the real-time performance of the ATLAS trigger system in 2017. Considerations will be presented on the most relevant parameters of the trigger (efficiency to collect signal and output data rate) as well as details on some aspects of the algorithms which are run real-time on the High Level Trigger CPU farm.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

From 2D to 4D: a containerized workflow and browser to explore dynamic chromatin architecture

Background Characterizing the physical organization of the genome is essential for understanding long-range gene regulation, chromatin compartmentalization, and epigenetic accessibility. Hi-C experiments generate two-dimensional (2D) genome-wide contact maps of chromatin interactions by capturing the spatial proximity between genomic loci, which reveal interaction frequencies but lack the spatial resolution needed to interpret the three-dimensional (3D) genome structure(s). Emerging evidence suggests that epigenetic regulation is closely linked to 3D genome architecture, and that structural changes over time (4D) drive key biological processes in development, disease, and environmental response. Thus, integrating 3D structure with functional data is critical for a more complete understanding of genome regulation. Previous work, most notably the 4DHiC chromosome modeling framework, has shown that physical multi-dimensional modeling approaches rooted in polymer physics and molecular dynamics can resolve these structures at biologically meaningful resolutions by integrating temporal Hi-C data with physical constraints to uncover dynamic chromosome reorganization. Thus, molecular dynamics simulations, constrained by Hi-C contact matrices, can resolve fine-scale structural changes and reveal functionally significant transitions in chromatin conformation. Results Herein, we present the 4D Genome Browser Workflow (4DGBWorkflow) and the 4D Genome Browser (4DGB). The algorithm is based on the 4DHiC method, and the containerized tool is an end-to-end workflow that can transform, filter, and view 4D epigenomics and chromatin datasets, allowing non-specialists to apply three-dimensional modeling principles to diverse datasets and experimental conditions. The software executes on a laptop running macOS, Linux or Windows. From input Hi-C files (.hic), the 4DGBWorkflow produces 3D reconstructions of chromosomes, integrates the reconstruction with track data (e.g., epigenetic marks, transcriptome profiles), and provides comparative visualization of the results in a single workflow. Conclusions The 4DGBWorkflow and 4D Genome Browser are open-source tools for comparative analysis and visualization of 4D chromosome datasets, including chromatin architecture and epigenomic signals. Automatic integration of Hi-C data with molecular dynamics democratizes the construction of time resolved 3D genome structures, simplifying complex simulations and data integration schemes.

3D Genome Browser↗

DOE OSTI2023

Code Coverage Status of ARC Code-DIF3D

The Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) software system supports users in their fast reactor design goals by providing neutronic, thermal-hydraulic, and structural analysis capabilities. DIF3D plays a pivotal role in the ARC system as the primary homogenized assembly neutronic calculation methodology for fast reactor problems. Over its 40 years history, ARC software usage with DIF3D has been applied to numerous fast and thermal spectrum reactor analysis projects with good to excellent comparison against experiments. With continued improvement of computation resources, many of the geometry modeling capabilities in DIF3D that were primarily used in low order schemes are not really needed anymore. Today, the diffusion and transport capabilities of DIF3D-VARIANT are primarily used in the reactor design process with some scattered usage of DIF3D-FD and DIF3D-Nodal. In recent work, the DIF3D software verification was completed for DIF3D-FD and DIF3D-VARIANT on the geometry options used in the Versatile Test Reactor project. While we can be confident that these capabilities of DIF3D are well used and thus trusted, it does not demonstrate that all possible input options of DIF3D are actually working, but just those that were tested as part of VTR are and that they are correct. Thus, the purpose of the present work is to identify a set of test problems for DIF3D and assess the code coverage of DIF3D for those test problems. The goal is to document what parts of the existing DIF3D code are touched by the set of test problems and which are not. Because the verification work done on DIF3D-VARIANT and DIF3D-FD was focused on the most common uses of DIF3D for fast reactor analysis, the code coverage assessment of those capabilities is the highest priority. This will ensure that nothing is being missed by the existing verification test problems that DIF3D relies upon. The DIF3D-Nodal capability will also be inspected for code coverage as part of this work to further ensure that regular regression testing of DIF3D will trap any likely errors the end user might experience with the DIF3D software. The code coverage analysis of DIF3D was performed with the Code Coverage Tool of the Intel Fortran compiler which requires modifications to the compilation of DIF3D. The detailed coverage tables are given for each submodule of DIF3D separately, and for the submodules which are primarily developed for DIF3D, most of the source files could be at least partially touched. Most of the uncovered parts/files could be easily ignored, because they are either for error message and debugging output or obviously not needed by DIF3D. Out of the entire source codes of DIF3D, only a few uncovered modules deserve further investigation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Code Coverage Status of the ARC Code DIF3D

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

STSR-INR: Spatiotemporal super-resolution for multivariate time-varying volumetric data via implicit neural representation

Implicit neural representation (INR) has surfaced as a promising direction for solving different scientific visualization tasks due to its continuous representation and flexible input and output settings. We present STSR-INR, an INR solution for generating simultaneous spatiotemporal super-resolution for multivariate time-varying volumetric data. Inheriting the benefits of the INR-based approach, STSR-INR supports unsupervised learning and permits data upscaling with arbitrary spatial and temporal scale factors. Unlike existing GAN- or INR-based super-resolution methods, STSR-INR focuses on tackling variables or ensembles and enabling joint training across datasets of various spatiotemporal resolutions. Here we achieve this capability via a variable embedding scheme that learns latent vectors for different variables. In conjunction with a modulated structure in the network design, we employ a variational auto-decoder to optimize the learnable latent vectors to enable latent-space interpolation. To combat the slow training of INR, we leverage a multi-head strategy to improve training and inference speed with significant speedup. We demonstrate the effectiveness of STSR-INR with multiple scalar field datasets and compare it with conventional tricubic+linear interpolation and state-of-the-art deep-learning-based solutions (STNet and CoordNet).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assess and Benchmark Magneto-Inertial Fusion (MIF) Scaling. Final Technical Report for the SNL/Rochester ALPHA Follow-on Project

This project was a follow-on to the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Laboratory for Laser Energetics (LLE) ARPA-E ALPHA project entitled “Demonstrating Fuel Magnetization and Laser Heating Tools for Low-Cost Fusion Energy”. The primary purpose of this follow-on project was to obtain additional data at the OMEGA facility to help better understand how MagLIF, a platform that has already demonstrated the scientific viability of magneto-inertial fusion, scales across a factor of 1000 in driver energy. A secondary aspect of this project was to extend simulations and analysis at SNL to cover a wider magneto-inertial fusion (MIF) parameter space and test scaling of those models across this wide range of input energies and conditions of the target. This work was successful in improving understanding of how key physics elements of MIF scales and improves confidence in setting requirements for fusion gain with larger drivers. The OMEGA experiments at the smaller scale verified the hypothesis that preheating the fuel plays a significant role in introducing wall contaminants that mix into the fuel and significantly degrade fusion performance. This contamination not only impacts target performance but the optimal input conditions for the target. However, analysis at the Z-scale showed that target performance at high preheat levels is limited by the Nernst effect, which advects magnetic flux from the hot spot, reducing magnetic insulation and consequently reduces the temperature of the fuel. The combination of MagLIF experiments at the disparate scales of OMEGA and Z along with a multiscale 3D simulation analysis has led to new insight into the physical mechanisms responsible for limiting target performance and provides important benchmarks to assess target scaling more generally for MIF schemes. Finally, in addition to the MagLIF related work, a semi-analytic model of liner driven Field Reversed Configuration (FRC) was developed that predicts the fusion gain for such systems. This model was also validated with 2D radiation magneto-hydrodynamic simulations and predicts that fusion gains of near unity could be driven by the Z machine.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Porting a fast-running wildfire plume model for use in national security and climate applications

In this project, the code for the fast-running Freitas wildfire plume model was successfully ported into the NARAC system, creating an operations-ready capability for predicting the transport of hazardous smoke from large wildfires. “Porting” refers to copying a section of code from one software package to another while accounting for unique dependencies in each software package. In this case, the code was ported from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, which is used extensively by the project team. To verify correct implementation, model results from the updated NARAC system were compared to those from WRF and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast model, which also employs the Freitas scheme. The NARAC User Interface (UI) and code documentation were also updated to include the new wildfire plume option, and a wildfire case was added to the NARAC test suite. The code was used in a real-time, semi-operational setup to predict smoke transport during the Cerro Pelado fire near Los Alamos National Laboratory in May 2022. The Freitas plume model was also tested for LLNL climate applications. Although the code was not ported into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), it was tested offline using E3SM atmospheric inputs, and results were compared to existing high-resolution plume predictions from large-eddy simulations in WRF. The code implementation and testing completed during this project will enable future work predicting smoke transport from large wildfires in LLNL national security and climate mission spaces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Approach for the Aluminum-clad Dry Storage Pilot using HFIR Fuel

To confirm that the dry storage of aluminum-clad research reactor spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) will remain within the safety envelope after applied drying schemes and that the resulting evolution of the gas space composition, temperature, and pressure conditions are understood, a dry storage pilot project is being established. The pilot will incorporate an instrumented lid for discrete interval or for on-demand gas composition and temperature monitoring of two DOE Standard Canisters (DSCs) loaded with three High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) inner cores per DSC. Each DSC would be subjected to a separate alternative candidate drying scheme. Canisters will undergo 1 to 5 years of monitoring, including internal temperature and gas sampling to track pressure and composition changes. This report outlines the approach for modeling the ASNF-in-canister behavior in terms of evolving gas space conditions for the ASNF dry storage pilot using HFIR fuel. The ASNF has an adherent surface oxyhydroxide layer comprised of boehmite/bayerite that generates hydrogen when subjected to irradiation. Three-dimensional multi-physics computational fluid dynamics simulations will be executed to compute the thermal field within the DSC and provide inputs to a chemical model employed to compute pressure buildup as hydrogen is generated in the system. Implemented in Cantera, the chemical model solves gas phase and aluminum oxyhydroxide surface-mediated radiolysis reactions. Gas phase reactions are sourced from Wittman and Hanson (2015), whereas surface-mediated reactions are incorporated by fitting experimental data using an optimization algorithm (Abboud, 2023). Water radiolysis reactions from Wren and Ball (2001) are adopted with modifications as described in Abboud (2023c). Understanding the effect of the hydrogen buildup over time is important for long-term storage safety considerations. Modeling results will include the canister pressure, temperature, and composition evolution from the initial helium backfill with the addition of radiolytically-evolved chemical species (e.g., hydrogen and oxygen). The specific HFIR cores for the pilot program have not yet been selected, and the overall design is still in development. The CFD-chemical model used for this work will be based on prior models with necessary updates to allow for improved accuracy and efficiency. The experimental data obtained from the HFIR demonstration will be used to improve and validate the computational models to predict the ASNF-in-canister behavior.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection for Wide-Area Protection Using Machine Learning

Wide-area protection scheme (WAPS) provides system-wide protection by detecting and mitigating small and large-scale disturbances that are difficult to resolve using local protection schemes. As this protection scheme is evolving from a substation-based distributed remedial action scheme (DRAS) to the control center-based centralized RAS (CRAS), it presents severe challenges to their cybersecurity because of its heavy reliance on an insecure grid communication, and its compromise would lead to system failure. This article presents an architecture and methodology for developing a cyber-physical anomaly detection system (CPADS) that utilizes synchrophasor measurements and properties of network packets to detect data integrity and communication failure attacks on measurement and control signals in CRAS. The proposed machine leaning-based methodology applies a rules-based approach to select relevant input features, utilizes variational mode decomposition (VMD) and decision tree (DT) algorithms to develop multiple classification models, and performs final event identification using a rules-based decision logic. Here, we have evaluated the proposed methodology of CPADS using the IEEE 39 bus system for several performance measures (accuracy, recall, precision, and F-measure) in a cyber-physical testbed environment. Furthermore, our experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm (VMD-DT) of CPADS outperforms the existing machine learning classifiers during noisy and noise-free measurements while incurring an acceptable processing overhead.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Space-Split Algorithm for Sensitivity Analysis of Discrete Chaotic Systems With Multidimensional Unstable Manifolds

Accurate approximations of the change of a system's output and its statistics with respect to the input are highly desired in computational dynamics. Ruelle's linear response theory provides breakthrough mathematical machinery for computing the linear response of chaotic dynamical systems. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for sensitivity analysis of discrete chaos with an arbitrary number of positive Lyapunov exponents. We combine the concept of perturbation space-splitting, which regularizes Ruelle's original expression, together with measure-based parameterization of the expanding subspace. We use these tools to rigorously derive trajectory-following recursive relations that converge exponentially fast, and construct a memory-efficient Monte Carlo scheme for derivatives of the output statistics. Thanks to the regularization and lack of simplifying assumptions on the system's behavior, our method is immune to the common problems of other popular methods such as the exploding tangent solutions and unphysical shadowing directions. Here, we provide a ready-to-use algorithm, analyze its complexity, and demonstrate several numerical examples of sensitivity computation using physically-inspired low-dimensional systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗