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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

Cane, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Tropical Warm Pool Surface Heat Budgets and Temperature: Contrasts Between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina

Seasonal and interannual variations of the net surface heating F(sub NET) and sea surface temperature tendency (T(sub s)/dt) in the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans are studied. The surface heat fluxes are derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements for the period October 1997-September 2000. It is found that the magnitude of solar heating is lager than that of evaporative cooling, but the spatial variation of the latter is significantly large than the former. As a result, the spatial variations of seasonal and interannual variability of F(sub NET), follow closely that of evaporative cooling. Seasonal variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt are significantly correlated, except for the equatorial western Pacific. The high correlation is primarily attributable to high correlation between seasonal cycles of solar heating and T(sub s)/dt. The change of F(sub NET) between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina is significantly larger in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean than tropical western Pacific. For the former region, the reduced evaporative cooling arising from weakened winds during the El Nino is generally associated with enhanced solar heating due to decreased cloudiness, and thus increases the interannual variability of F(sub NET). For the latter region, the reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds is generally associated with but exceeds the reduced solar heating arising from increased cloudiness, and vise versa. Thus the interannual variability of F(sub NET) is reduced due to this offsetting effect. Interannual variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt have very low correlation. This is most likely related to interannual variability of ocean dynamics, which includes the variations of solar radiation penetrating through oceanic mixed layer, upwelling of cold thermocline water, Indonesian throughflow for transporting heat from the Pacific to Indian Ocean, and interhemispheric transport in the Indian Ocean.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗
NASA NTRS2024

Movement of Decaying Quasi-2-day Wave in the Austral Summer-time Mesosphere

The Quasi-2-Day Wave (Q2DW) is a large temperature disturbance in the austral summer-time mesosphere. Its decay-phase movement and phase-speed are poorly understood. Q2DW events observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) onboard the NASA Aura satellite reveal that during the temperature Q2DW’s decay-phase, the Q2DW temperature disturbance is still substantial, but its phase-speed reduces exponentially, on average, from around -70 m/s to -20 13 m/s in around 30-days. Observations also reveal significant interannual variability in these phase-speed values. Q2DW events simulated by the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (eCMAM) reveal that during the Q2DW decay-phase, the temperature Q2DW phase- speed is strongly correlated with the Summer Mesosphere Easterly Jet (SMEJ) wind values. eCMAM also shows that the phase-speed interannual variabilities partially reflect the interannual variabilities of the SMEJ. Planetary-wave diagnostics indicate that during the Q2DW’s decay phase, there is still an active transfer of momentum from the SMEJ into Q2DW. The model simulations therefore indicate that the SMEJ plays a substantial role in the decaying temperature Q2DW phase-speed variabilities observed by MLS. This adds to our knowledge of how the SMEJ affects the Q2DW.

Cornelius Csar Jude H Salinas↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth System Model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models

Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) are heavily used to provide inputs to sectoral impact and multisector dynamic models, which include representations of energy, water, land, economics, and their interactions. Therefore, representing the full range of model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and interannual variability that ensembles of these models capture is critical to the exploration of the future co-evolution of the integrated human–Earth system. The pre-eminent source of these ensembles has been the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). With more modeling centers participating in each new CMIP phase, the size of the model archive is rapidly increasing, which can be intractable for impact modelers to effectively utilize due to computational constraints and the challenges of analyzing large datasets. In this work, we present a method to select a subset of the latest phase, CMIP6, featuring models for use as inputs to a sectoral impact or multisector dynamics models, while prioritizing preservation of the range of model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and interannual variability in the full CMIP6 ensemble results. This method is intended to help impact modelers select climate information from the CMIP archive efficiently for use in downstream models that require global coverage of climate information. This is particularly critical for large-ensemble experiments of multisector dynamic models that may be varying additional features beyond climate inputs in a factorial design, thus putting constraints on the number of climate simulations that can be used. We focus on temperature and precipitation outputs of CMIP6 models, as these are two of the most used variables among impact models, and many other key input variables for impacts are at least correlated with one or both of temperature and precipitation (e.g., relative humidity). Besides preserving the multi-model ensemble variance characteristics, we prioritize selecting CMIP6 models in the subset that preserve the very likely distribution of equilibrium climate sensitivity values as assessed by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. This approach could be applied to other output variables of climate models and, possibly when combined with emulators, offers a flexible framework for designing more efficient experiments on human-relevant climate impacts. It can also provide greater insight into the properties of existing CMIP6 models.

Snyder, Abigail C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Tropospheric Ozone and Biomass Burning

This paper studies the significance of pyrogenic (e.g., biomass burning) emissions in the production of tropospheric ozone in the tropics associated with the forest and savanna fires in the African, South American, and Indonesian regions. Using aerosol index (Al) and tropospheric column ozone (TCO) time series from 1979 to 2000 derived from the Nimbus-7 and Earth Probe TOMS measurements, our study shows significant differences in the seasonal and spatial characteristics of pyrogenic emissions north and south of the equator in the African region and Brazil in South America. In general, they are not related to the seasonal and spatial characteristics of tropospheric ozone in these regions. In the Indonesian region, the most significant increase in TCO occurred during September and October 1997, following large-scale forest and savanna fires associated with the El Nino-induced dry season. However, the increase in TCO extended over most of the western Pacific well outside the burning region and was accompanied by a decrease in the eastern Pacific resembling a west-to-east dipole about the date-line. The net increase in TCO integrated over the tropical region between 15 deg N and 15 deg S was about 6-8 Tg (1 Tg = 10(exp 12) gm) over the mean climatological value of about 72 Tg. This increase is well within the range of interannual variability of TCO in the tropical region and does not necessarily suggest a photochemical source related to biomass burning. The interannual variability in TCO appears to be out of phase with the interannual variability of stratospheric column ozone (SCO). These variabilities seem to be manifestations of solar cycle and quasibiennial oscillations.

Chandra, Sushil↗
NASA NTRS1994

January and July global distributions of atmospheric heating for 1986, 1987, and 1988

Three-dimensional global distributions of atmospheric heating are estimated for January and July of the 3-year period 1986-88 from the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) assimilated datasets. Emphasis is placed on the interseasonal and interannual variability of heating both locally and regionally. Large fluctuations in the magnitude of heating and the disposition of maxima/minima in the Tropics occur over the 3-year period. This variability, which is largely in accord with anomalous precipitation expected during the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, appears realistic. In both January and July, interannual differences of 1.0-1.5 K/day in the vertically averaged heating occur over the tropical Pacific. These interannual regional differences are substantial in comparison with maximum monthly averaged heating rates of 2.0-2.5 K/day. In the extratropics, the most prominent interannual variability occurs along the wintertime North Atlantic cyclone track. Vertical profiles of heating from selected regions also reveal large interannual variability. Clearly evident is the modulation of the heating within tropical regions of deep moist convection associated with the evolution of the ENSO cycle. The heating integrated over continental and oceanic basins emphasizes the impact of land and ocean surfaces on atmospheric energy balance and depicts marked interseasonal and interannual large-scale variability.

Schaack, Todd K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

Roads, John↗
DOE OSTI2025

Walker Branch Watershed: Daily Stream Metabolism and Organic Carbon Spiraling Metrics in the West Fork of Walker Branch, Tennessee, USA, 2004-2010

This dataset contains daily metabolism estimates of gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP), in addition to organic carbon spiraling length (SOC) and mineralization velocity (VfOC) estimates at the West Fork of Walker Branch, a small headwater stream, in the Walker Branch Watershed, Tennessee, USA. Observations were made from 2004-2010 (2004-01-01 to 2010-12-31). These data were generated to assess seasonal and interannual variability in metabolism and organic carbon spiraling and to explore potential driver variables, as analyses of intra- and interannual variability in metabolism and organic carbon spiraling are currently limited, leaving knowledge gaps in the driving mechanisms of and future changes to stream metabolism and carbon processing under climate change. Additionally, measurements of discharge (Q), stream width, stream- and canopy-level photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), water temperature, and precipitation from this time frame are included. This dataset contains one data file in comma separated (*.csv) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Latitude Dependence of the Effect of Pinatubo on Stratospheric Ozone

Statistical analysis of TOMS and SBLT total ozone data indicate that the eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 led to a significant decrease in ozone at northern midlatitudes with little or no effect at southern midlatitudes. We argue that this puzzling absence of a southern hemisphere effect may be an artifact of the statistical analysis. We have run a 3D CTM simulation of the past 30 years of stratospheric photochemistry with variable forcing due to chlorine/bromine compounds, solar ultraviolet radiation, and volcanic aerosols. This integration used winds from the FVGCM, which has similar interannual variability to the atmosphere. When this CTM output was examined with a standard time-series analysis, we found an effect of Pinatubo in the southern hemisphere, but not in the northern hemisphere. We then reran the CTM without volcanic aerosols. The subtraction of the two simulations indicated that, as expected, that Pinatubo affected both hemispheres in the model. This means that the northern hemisphere effect was in the model but did not show up in the statistical analysis. We also had an on-line parameterized chemical ozone tracer with seasonally repeating production and loss over the simulation. We used this as a dynamical surrogate to remove interannual variability from the original model output. The residual time series was then analyzed for the Pinatubo effect and we were able to find it in both hemispheres. We suggest that the combination of the two volcanoes, El Chichon and Pinatubo, with the solar cycle and interannual variability led to this problem of analysis in the northern hemisphere of our model. We furthermore suggest that a similar think may be occurring in the southern hemisphere of the data. An analysis of the atmosphere's southern hemisphere with a good dynamical surrogate may solve the mystery of the missing southern hemisphere effect of Pinatubo on ozone.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Determined from Satellite Observations

The compiled, quality-controlled satellite multichannel passive-microwave record of polar sea ice now spans over 18 years, from November 1978 through December 1996, and is revealing considerable information about the Arctic sea ice cover and its variability. The information includes data on ice concentrations (percent areal coverages of ice), ice extents, ice melt, ice velocities, the seasonal cycle of the ice, the interannual variability of the ice, the frequency of ice coverage, and the length of the sea ice season. The data reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 sq km, while individual regions experienced much greater percent variations, for instance, with the Greenland Sea having a range of 740,000 - 1,110,000 sq km in its yearly maximum ice coverage. In spite of the large variations from year to year and region to region, overall the Arctic ice extents showed a statistically significant, 2.80% / decade negative trend over the 18.2-year period. Ice season lengths, which vary from only a few weeks near the ice margins to the full year in the large region of perennial ice coverage, also experienced interannual variability, along with spatially coherent overall trends. Linear least squares trends show the sea ice season to have lengthened in much of the Bering Sea, Baffin Bay, the Davis Strait, and the Labrador Sea, but to have shortened over a much larger area, including the Sea of Okhotsk, the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, and the southeastern Arctic.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved Simulation of East Asian Summer Monsoon in the High-resolution CESM1 and Its Causes

Based on the high- and low-resolution Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), and corresponding simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we compare the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The EASM interannual variability is characterized by the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) circulation and the dipole rainfall pattern with a negative southern lobe over the western North Pacific and a positive northern lobe along the Meiyu–Baiu region, which is better reproduced by the high-resolution models. Here, the reason for the improvement in the high-resolution models has been attributed to the better simulation of the warm temperature advection from the wind anomalies on the climatological temperature gradient. Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean are the key to the improved wind anomalies featuring a WNPAC in the high-resolution models. The warm SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean strengthen the WNPAC by triggering a Kelvin-wave response to the enhanced heat release induced by the increased precipitation. Based on the mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the warm SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean in the high-resolution CESM1 are tied to the anomalous easterly wind along the equator, which reduces surface evaporation and upwelling. Therefore, the better simulations of air-sea feedback and the oceanic mesoscale eddy over the western Indian Ocean are the key for the improved simulation of the EASM interannual variations in the high-resolution CESM1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

ERS satellite microwave radar observations of Antarctic sea-ice dynamics

ERS-1 and ERS-2 scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are used to monitor and track large and small scale sea ice dynamics in the Southern Ocean, and in particular in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Sea ice formation in the Weddell Sea regulates vertical and horizontal thermohaline circulation and influences bottom water production rates. Significant seasonal to interannual variability is observed in the sea ice drift dynamics. Coupled model simulations reproduce this variability and indicate that there is significant interannual variability in Weddelll Sea ice formation, drifts and extent on the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) timescale, with a period of approximately eight years. Changes in ice dynamics on these timescales regulate the amount of sea ice divergence and polynya formation. Anomalies in the timing and duration of the opening of the Ronne ice shelf polynya system are closely related to the variability in outflow of Weddell Sea bottom water measured at Joinville Island.

Drinkwater, Mark R.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Variability and Distribution of Nighttime Equatorial to Mid Latitude Ionospheric Irregularities and Vertical Plasma Drift Observed by FORMOSAT-5 Advanced Ionospheric Probe In-Situ Measurements from 2017 – 2020

Irregularities in ionospheric plasma distribution can result in severe scintillation and disruption to the radio frequencies utilized for satellite communications and navigation. In the low and mid latitudes, these irregularities can include Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) and Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). EPBs are irregularities manifesting in low latitude nighttime ionosphere plasma density that can extend along magnetic field lines with zonal scales on the order of 100 km or less, while TIDs are propagating wave disturbances. High frequency in-situ measurements of ionospheric plasma aboard spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are a direct measurement of irregularities in plasma density and are therefore valuable for resolving EPB and TID occurrences, variability, and relation to other ionospheric parameters that are believed to play a driving role in the formation of such irregularities. In this study, we utilize observations taken over a three-year period between 2017 and 2020 by the Advanced Ionospheric Probe (AIP) carried aboard the FORMOSAT-5 satellite to examine the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of equatorial to mid latitude ionospheric irregularities and vertical ion drift during this time. AIP provides in-situ measurements of ion density and vertical ion drift in the equatorial to mid latitude ionosphere at approximately 720 km altitude with local times between 22:00 – 23:00 local time. Our global scale results resolve distinct and inter-annually recurrent seasonal patterns in the distribution of nighttime ionospheric irregularities and vertical plasma drift during this time. Elevated occurrences of ion density irregularities are resolved along the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) latitudes, while notable occurrences with variability consistent with EPBs also observed along the low and equatorial magnetic latitudes. Zonal variability of equatorial irregularities consistent with the signatures of nonmigrating atmospheric tides are observed. It is also notable that the occurrences and geographic distribution of ion density irregularities showed a considerable level of interannual variability, especially at mid latitudes over the South Atlantic and Southern African sectors, which showed much higher levels of irregularities in 2017–––2018, compared to 2019 and 2020. In comparison, the spatial and interannual variation of the co-located vertical ion drifts were much more consistent during the years examined, indicating that the driver for the observed interannual variability in ion density irregularities cannot be attributed to the vertical ion drift at the same time and location of the observations. This highlights the need for in-situ instruments distributed across multiple satellites in different local time zones.

ionosphere↗
NASA NTRS2018

Reconstruction of Snow on Arctic Sea Ice

Snow on Arctic sea ice is a poorly observed variable that plays an important role in the Arctic climate system and impacts the remote sensing systems that monitor Arctic sea ice. We present and validate a reconstruction of Arctic snow depth based on observed sea ice motion and snowfall derived from reanalysis data. Overall, the reconstruction is in good agreement with direct measurements of snow depth from Operation IceBridge, slightly underestimating mean IceBridge snow depth. At the local scale (10 km), the reconstruction is more skilled than a weighted climatology over first year ice, but underestimates deeper snow over multiyear ice. Reconstructions of single buoy snow depths are unskilled, but the reconstruction shows skill in simulating the mean snow depth across all buoys. Spring snow depths show a lowtohigh crossArctic gradient and tend to be greatest in the Atlantic sector of the eastern Arctic. The relationship between ice type (multiyear or firstyear ice) and snow depth previously documented in the western Arctic is not evident in the eastern Arctic. Using ice type to weight snow depths for satellite ice thickness retrievals may not be justifiable in the eastern Arctic. Reconstructed snow depth across the Arctic shows significant interannual variability, suggesting that use of a fixed snow depth climatology may lead to biases in retrieved ice thickness and its variability. However, interannual variability in panArctic mean snow depth is comparable or smaller than the uncertainty in both the reconstruction and IceBridge, highlighting the need for high accuracy snow depth products and reconstructions.

sea ice↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Role of Low-Level, Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris Euphrates Headwaters

Rainfall variability in the Tigris Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (1983 - 2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days, when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

rainfall variability↗
NASA NTRS2004

The North Pacific as a Regulator of Summertime Climate Over North America and the Asian Monsoon

The interannual variability of summertime rainfall over the U.S. may be linked to climate anomalies over Pacific and East Asia through teleconnection patterns that may be components of recurring global climate modes in boreal summer (Lau and Weng 2002). In this study, maintenance of the boreal summer teleconnection patterns is investigated. The particular focus is on the potential effects of North Pacific air-sea interaction on climate anomalies over the U.S. Observational data, reanalysis and outputs of a series of NASA NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to NASA GSFC MLO model experiments are used. Statistical analysis of observations and NSIPP AMIP type simulations indicates that, the interannual variability of observed warm season precipitation over the U.S. is related to SST variation in both tropical and North Pacific, whereas the NSIPP AMIP simulated summertime US. precipitation variation mainly reflects impact of ENS0 in tropical Pacific. This implies the potential importance of air-sea interaction in North Pacific in contributing to the interannual variability of observed summer climate over the U.S. The anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the dominant summertime teleconnection modes in both observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations are further diagnosed, using stationary wave modeling approach. In observations, for the two dominant modes, both anomalous diabatic heating and anomalous transients significantly contribute to the anomalous circulation. The distributions of the anomalous diabatic heating and transient forcing are quadrature configured over North Pacific and North America, so that both forcings act constructively to maintain the teleconnection patterns. The contrast between observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations from stationary wave modeling diagnosis confirms the previous conclusion based on statistical analysis. To better appreciate the role of extra-tropical air-sea interaction in maintaining the summertime teleconnection pattern, various dynamical and physical fields and their inter- linkage in the series of NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to MLO model experiments are examined in-depth. Based on comparison between different model experiments, we will discuss the physical and dynamical mechanisms through which the air-sea interaction in extratropics, and transient mean flow interactions over the North Pacific, affects interannual variation of U.S. climate during boreal summer.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Mechanisms of Interannual Variations of the Meridional Overturning Circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean

The authors investigate the nature of the interannual variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the North Atlantic Ocean using an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) assimilation product for the period of 1993-2003. The time series of the first empirical orthogonal function of the MOC is found to be correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, while the associated circulation anomalies correspond to cells extending over the full ocean depth. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the wind is responsible for most of this interannual variability, at least south of 40(deg)N. A dynamical decomposition of the meridional streamfunction allows a further look into the mechanisms. In particular, the contributions associated with 1) the Ekman flow and its depth-independent compensation, 2) the vertical shear flow, and 3) the barotropic gyre flowing over zonally varying topography are examined. Ekman processes are found to dominate the shorter time scales (1.5-3 yr), while for longer time scales (3-10 yr) the MOC variations associated with vertical shear flow are of greater importance. The latter is primarily caused by heaving of the pycnocline in the western subtropics associated with the stronger wind forcing. Finally, how these changes in the MOC affect the meridional heat transport (MHT) is examined. It is found that overall, Ekman processes explain a larger part of interannual variability (3-10 yr) for MHT (57%) than for the MOC (33%).

meridional heat transport↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Process-Model Perspective on Recent Changes in the Carbon Cycle of North America

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year−1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year−1 in each decade); split into 0.18 ± 0.12 PgC year−1 in Canada (0.15 and 0.20), 0.16 ± 0.17 in the United States (0.14 and 0.17), 0.02 ± 0.05 PgC year−1 in Mexico (0.02 and 0.02) and 0.01 ± 0.02 in Central America and the Caribbean (0.01 and 0.01). About 57% of the new C assimilated by terrestrial ecosystems is allocated into vegetation, 30% into soils, and 13% into litter. Losses of C due to fire account for 41% of the interannual variability of the mean net biome productivity for all North America in the model ensemble. Finally, we show that drought years (e.g., 2002) have the potential to shift the region to a small net C source in the simulations (−0.02 ± 0.46 PgC year−1). Our results highlight the importance of identifying the major drivers of the interannual variability of the continental-scale land C cycle along with the spatial distribution of local sink-source dynamics.

Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo↗