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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2013

The Ultraviolet Albedo of Ganymede

A large set of ultraviolet images of Ganymede have been acquired with the Hubble Space Telescope over the last 15 years. These images have been used almost exclusively to study Ganymede's stunning auroral emissions (Feldman et al. 2000; Eviatar et al. 2001; McGrath et al. 2004; Saur et al. 2011; McGrath et al. 2013), and even the most basic information about Ganymede's UV albedo has yet to be gleaned from these data. We will present a first-cut analysis of both disk-averaged and spatially-resolved UV albedos of Ganymede, with focus on the spatially-resolved Lyman-alpha albedo, which has never been considered previously for this satellite. Ganymede's visibly bright regions are known to be rich in water ice, while the visibly dark regions seem to be more carbonaceous (Carlson et al., 1996). At Lyman-alpha, these two species should also have very different albedo values.

McGrath, Melissa↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluation of the Trade Space Between UAS Maneuver Performance and SAA System Performance Requirements

A need exists to safely integrate Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System. Replacing manned aircraft's see-and-avoid capability in the absence of an onboard pilot is one of the key challenges associated with safe integration. Sense-and-avoid (SAA) systems will have to achieve yet-to-be-determined required separation distances for a wide range of encounters. They will also need to account for the maneuver performance of the UAS they are paired with. The work described in this paper is aimed at developing an understanding of the trade space between UAS maneuver performance and SAA system performance requirements. An assessment of current manned and unmanned aircraft performance was used to establish potential UAS performance test matrix bounds. Then, nearterm UAS integration work was used to narrow down the scope. A simulator was developed with sufficient fidelity to assess SAA system performance requirements for a wide range of encounters. The simulator generates closest-point-of-approach (CPA) data from the wide range of UAS performance models maneuvering against a single intruder with various encounter geometries. The simulator is described herein and has both a graphical user interface and batch interface to support detailed analysis of individual UAS encounters and macro analysis of a very large set of UAS and encounter models, respectively. Results from the simulator using approximate performance data from a well-known manned aircraft is presented to provide insight into the problem and as verification and validation of the simulator. Analysis of climb, descent, and level turn maneuvers to avoid a collision is presented. Noting the diversity of backgrounds in the UAS community, a description of the UAS aerodynamic and propulsive design and performance parameters is included. Initial attempts to model the results made it clear that developing maneuver performance groups is required. Discussion of the performance groups developed and how to know in which group an aircraft belongs for a given flight condition and encounter is included. The groups are specific to airplane, flight condition, and encounter, rather than airplane-only specific. Results and methodology for developing UAS maneuver performance requirements are presented for each maneuver as well. Results for the vertical maneuver indicate that a minimum specific excess power value can assure a minimum CPA for a given time-to-go prediction. However, smaller values of specific excess power may achieve or exceed the same CPA if the UAS has sufficient speed to trade for altitude. Level turn results are less impacted by specific excess power and are presented as a function of turn rate. The effect of altitude is also discussed for the turns. Next steps and future work are discussed. Future studies will lead to better quantification of the preliminary results and cover the remainder of the proposed test matrix. It is anticipated that this will be done in conjunction with RTCA SC-228 over the next few months.

Jack, Devin P.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Service Oriented Robotic Architecture for Space Robotics: Design, Testing, and Lessons Learned

This paper presents the lessons learned from six years of experiments with planetary rover prototypes running the Service Oriented Robotic Architecture (SORA) developed by the Intelligent Robotics Group (IRG) at the NASA Ames Research Center. SORA relies on proven software engineering methods and technologies applied to space robotics. Based on a Service Oriented Architecture and robust middleware, SORA encompasses on-board robot control and a full suite of software tools necessary for remotely operated exploration missions. SORA has been eld tested in numerous scenarios of robotic lunar and planetary exploration. The experiments conducted by IRG with SORA exercise a large set of the constraints encountered in space applications: remote robotic assets, ight relevant science instruments, distributed operations, high network latencies and unreliable or intermittent communication links. In this paper, we present the results of these eld tests in regard to the developed architecture, and discuss its bene ts and limitations.

service oriented architecture↗
NASA NTRS2014

Constructing the Best Reliability Data for the Job

Modern business and technical decisions are based on the results of analyses. When considering assessments using "reliability data", the concern is how long a system will continue to operate as designed. Generally, the results are only as good as the data used. Ideally, a large set of pass/fail tests or observations to estimate the probability of failure of the item under test would produce the best data. However, this is a costly endeavor if used for every analysis and design. Developing specific data is costly and time consuming. Instead, analysts rely on available data to assess reliability. Finding data relevant to the specific use and environment for any project is difficult, if not impossible. Instead, we attempt to develop the "best" or composite analog data to support our assessments. One method used incorporates processes for reviewing existing data sources and identifying the available information based on similar equipment, then using that generic data to derive an analog composite. Dissimilarities in equipment descriptions, environment of intended use, quality and even failure modes impact the "best" data incorporated in an analog composite. Once developed, this composite analog data provides a "better" representation of the reliability of the equipment or component can be used to support early risk or reliability trade studies, or analytical models to establish the predicted reliability data points. Data that is more representative of reality and more project specific would provide more accurate analysis, and hopefully a better final decision.

Kleinhammer, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Assessment of Ice Shape Roughness Using a Self-Orgainizing Map Approach

Self-organizing maps are neural-network techniques for representing noisy, multidimensional data aligned along a lower-dimensional and nonlinear manifold. For a large set of noisy data, each element of a finite set of codebook vectors is iteratively moved in the direction of the data closest to the winner codebook vector. Through successive iterations, the codebook vectors begin to align with the trends of the higher-dimensional data. Prior investigations of ice shapes have focused on using self-organizing maps to characterize mean ice forms. The Icing Research Branch has recently acquired a high resolution three dimensional scanner system capable of resolving ice shape surface roughness. A method is presented for the evaluation of surface roughness variations using high-resolution surface scans based on a self-organizing map representation of the mean ice shape. The new method is demonstrated for 1) an 18-in. NACA 23012 airfoil 2 AOA just after the initial ice coverage of the leading 5 of the suction surface of the airfoil, 2) a 21-in. NACA 0012 at 0AOA following coverage of the leading 10 of the airfoil surface, and 3) a cold-soaked 21-in.NACA 0012 airfoil without ice. The SOM method resulted in descriptions of the statistical coverage limits and a quantitative representation of early stages of ice roughness formation on the airfoils. Limitations of the SOM method are explored, and the uncertainty limits of the method are investigated using the non-iced NACA 0012 airfoil measurements.

Icing↗
NASA NTRS2013

PROcess Based Diagnostics PROBE

Many of the aspects of the climate system that are of the greatest interest (e.g., the sensitivity of the system to external forcings) are emergent properties that arise via the complex interplay between disparate processes. This is also true for climate models most diagnostics are not a function of an isolated portion of source code, but rather are affected by multiple components and procedures. Thus any model-observation mismatch is hard to attribute to any specific piece of code or imperfection in a specific model assumption. An alternative approach is to identify diagnostics that are more closely tied to specific processes -- implying that if a mismatch is found, it should be much easier to identify and address specific algorithmic choices that will improve the simulation. However, this approach requires looking at model output and observational data in a more sophisticated way than the more traditional production of monthly or annual mean quantities. The data must instead be filtered in time and space for examples of the specific process being targeted.We are developing a data analysis environment called PROcess-Based Explorer (PROBE) that seeks to enable efficient and systematic computation of process-based diagnostics on very large sets of data. In this environment, investigators can define arbitrarily complex filters and then seamlessly perform computations in parallel on the filtered output from their model. The same analysis can be performed on additional related data sets (e.g., reanalyses) thereby enabling routine comparisons between model and observational data. PROBE also incorporates workflow technology to automatically update computed diagnostics for subsequent executions of a model. In this presentation, we will discuss the design and current status of PROBE as well as share results from some preliminary use cases.

PROBE↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Rise and Fall of the Type Ib Supernova iPTF13bvn Not a Massive Wolf-Rayet Star

Context. We investigate iPTF13bvn, a core-collapse (CC) supernova (SN) in the nearby spiral galaxy NGC 5806. This object was discovered by the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) very close to the estimated explosion date and was classified as a stripped-envelope CC SN, likely of Type Ib. Furthermore, a possible progenitor detection in pre-explosion Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images was reported, making this the only SN Ib with such an identification. Based on the luminosity and color of the progenitor candidate, as well as on early-time spectra and photometry of the SN, it was argued that the progenitor candidate is consistent with a single, massive Wolf-Rayet (WR) star. Aims. We aim to confirm the progenitor detection, to robustly classify the SN using additional spectroscopy, and to investigate if our follow-up photometric and spectroscopic data on iPTF13bvn are consistent with a single-star WR progenitor scenario. Methods. We present a large set of observational data, consisting of multi-band light curves (UBVRI, g′r′i′z′) and optical spectra. We perform standard spectral line analysis to track the evolution of the SN ejecta. We also construct a bolometric light curve and perform hydrodynamical calculations to model this light curve to constrain the synthesized radioactive nickel mass and the total ejecta mass of the SN. Late-time photometry is analyzed to constrain the amount of oxygen. Furthermore, image registration of pre- and post-explosion HST images is performed. Results. Our HST astrometry confirms the location of the progenitor candidate of iPTF13bvn, and follow-up spectra securely classify this as a SN Ib. We use our hydrodynamical model to fit the observed bolometric light curve, estimating the total ejecta mass to be 1.9 solar mass and the radioactive nickel mass to be 0.05 solar mass. The model fit requires the nickel synthesized in the explosion to be highly mixed out in the ejecta. We also find that the late-time nebular r′-band luminosity is not consistent with predictions based on the expected oxygen nucleosynthesis in very massive stars. Conclusions. We find that our bolometric light curve of iPTF13bvn is not consistent with the previously proposed single massive WR-star progenitor scenario. The total ejecta mass and, in particular, the late-time oxygen emission are both significantly lower than what would be expected from a single WR progenitor with a main-sequence mass of at least 30 solar mass.

massive↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of Spaceborne L-band Radiometer Measurements for Terrestrial Freeze/Thaw Retrievals in Canada

The landscape freeze/thaw (FT) state has an important impact on the surface energy balance, carbon fluxes, and hydrologic processes; the timing of spring melt is linked to active layer dynamics in permafrost areas. L-band (1.4 GHz) microwave emission could allow the monitoring of surface state dynamics due to its sensitivity to the pronounced permittivity difference between frozen and thawed soil. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of both Aquarius and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) L-band passive microwave measurements using a polarization ratio-based algorithm for landscape FT monitoring. Weekly L-band satellite observations are compared with a large set of reference data at 48 sites across Canada spanning three environments: tundra, boreal forest, and prairies. The reference data include in situ measurements of soil temperature (Tsoil) and air temperature (Tair), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) and snow cover area (SCA) products. Results show generally good agreement between Lband FT detection and the surface state estimated from four reference datasets. The best apparent accuracies for all seasons are obtained using Tair as the reference. Aquarius radiometer 2 (incidence angle of 39.6) data gives the best accuracies (90.8), while for SMOS the best results (87.8 of accuracy) are obtained at higher incidence angles (55- 60). The FT algorithm identifies both freeze onset and end with a delay of about one week in tundra and two weeks in forest and prairies, when compared to Tair. The analysis shows a stronger FT signal at tundra sites due to the typically clean transitions between consistently frozen and thawed conditions (and vice versa) and the absence of surface vegetation. Results in the prairies were poorer because of the influence of vegetation growth in summer (which decreases the polarization ratio) and the high frequency of ephemeral thaw events during winter. Freeze onset and end maps created from the same algorithm applied to SMOS and Aquarius measurements characterize similar FT patterns over Canada. This study shows the potential of using L-band spaceborne observations for FT monitoring, but underlines some limitations due to ice crusts in the snowpack, liquid water content in snow cover during the spring freeze to thaw transition, and vegetation growth.

soil freeze/thaw↗
NASA NTRS2016

Full Field X-Ray Fluorescence Imaging Using Micro Pore Optics for Planetary Surface Exploration

Many planetary surface processes leave evidence as small features in the sub-millimetre scale. Current planetary X-ray fluorescence spectrometers lack the spatial resolution to analyse such small features as they only provide global analyses of areas greater than 100 mm(exp 2). A micro-XRF spectrometer will be deployed on the NASA Mars 2020 rover to analyse spots as small as 120m. When using its line-scanning capacity combined to perpendicular scanning by the rover arm, elemental maps can be generated. We present a new instrument that provides full-field XRF imaging, alleviating the need for precise positioning and scanning mechanisms. The Mapping X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer - "Map-X" - will allow elemental imaging with approximately 100μm spatial resolution and simultaneously provide elemental chemistry at the scale where many relict physical, chemical and biological features can be imaged in ancient rocks. The arm-mounted Map-X instrument is placed directly on the surface of an object and held in a fixed position during measurements. A 25x25 mm(exp 2) surface area is uniformly illuminated with X-rays or alpha-particles and gamma-rays. A novel Micro Pore Optic focusses a fraction of the emitted X-ray fluorescence onto a CCD operated at a few frames per second. On board processing allows measuring the energy and coordinates of each X-ray photon collected. Large sets of frames are reduced into 2d histograms used to compute higher level data products such as elemental maps and XRF spectra from selected regions of interest. XRF spectra are processed on the ground to further determine quantitative elemental compositions. The instrument development will be presented with an emphasis on the characterization and modelling of the X-ray focussing Micro Pore Optic. An outlook on possible alternative XRF imaging applications will be discussed.

micro-XRF spectrometer↗
NASA NTRS2015

Dynamics of CMEs in the LASCO Field of View

A large set (16000) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed during 1996-2011 was selected to study their dynamics in the LASCO field of view (LFOV). These events were selected based on the criterion that at least three height-time measurements were available for each CME. The height-time measurements included in the SOHO/LASCO catalog were used to determine velocities and accelerations of the respective CMEs at successive distances from the Sun. Next, these parameters were sorted into 30 subsamples depending on the distance from the Sun at which they were determined. The mean velocities and accelerations calculated for the successive distance-dependent subsamples of CMEs were used to study their dynamics. We demonstrate that CMEs in the LFOV manifest three distinct phases of propagation: (i) The propelling Lorentz force dominates the dynamics of CMEs in the inner (C2 LASCO) FOV, (ii) a stable propagation occurs as a result of the balance between the propelling and drag forces, (iii) the drag force dominates at the outer edge of the LFOV. When we considered different categories of CME separately, we found different acceleration distance profiles for different categories.

Michalek, G.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Physical State and Distribution of Materials at the Surface of Pluto from New Horizons LEISA Imaging Spectrometer

From Earth based observations Pluto is known to be the host of N2, CH4 and CO ices and also a dark red material. Very limited spatial distribution information is available from rotational visible and near-infrared spectral curves obtained from hemispheric measurements. In July 2015 the New Horizons spacecraft reached Pluto and its satellite system and recorded a large set of data. The LEISA spectro-imager of the RALPH instruments are dedicated to the study of the composition and physical state of the materials composing the surface. In this paper we report a study of the distribution and physical state of the ices and non-ice materials on Pluto's illuminated surface and their mode and degree of mixing. Principal Component analysis as well as various specific spectral indicators and correlation plots are used on the first set of 2 high resolution spectro-images from the LEISA instrument covering the whole illuminated face of Pluto at the time of the New Horizons encounter. Qualitative distribution maps have been obtained for the 4 main condensed molecules, N2, CH4, CO, H2O as well as for the visible-dark red material. Based on specific spectral indicators, using either the strength or the position of absorption bands, these 4 molecules are found to indicate the presence of 3 different types of ices: N2-rich:CH4:CO ices, CH4-rich(:CO:N2?) ices and H2O ice. The mixing lines between these ices and with the dark red material are studied using scatter plots between the various spectral indicators. CH4 is mixed at the molecular level with N2, most probably also with CO, thus forming a ternary molecular mixture that follows its phase diagram with low solubility limits. The occurrence of a N2-rich - CH4-rich ices mixing line associated with a progressive decrease of the CO/CH4 ratio tells us that a fractionation sublimation sequence transforms one type of ice to the other forming either a N2-rich - CH4-rich binary mixture at the surface or an upper CH4-rich ice crust that may hide the N2-rich ice below. The strong CH4-rich - H2O mixing line witnesses the subsequent sublimation of the CH4-rich ice lag left behind by the N2:CO sublimation (N spring-summer), or a direct condensation of CH4 ice on the cold H2O ice (S autumn). The weak mixing line between CH4-containing ices and the dark red material and the very sharp spatial transitions between these ices and this non-volatile material are probably due to thermal incompatibility. Finally the occurrence of a H2O ice - red material mixing line advocates for a spatial mixing of the red material covering H2O ice, with possibly a small amount intimately mixed in water ice. From this analysis of the different materials distribution and their relative mixing lines, H2O ice appears to be the substratum on which other ices condense or non-volatile organic material is deposited from the atmosphere. N2-rich ices seem to evolve to CH4-dominated ices, possibly still containing traces of CO and N2, as N2 and CO sublimate away. The spatial distribution of these materials is very complex. The high spatial definition of all these composition maps, as well as those at even higher resolution that will be soon available, will allow us to compare them with Pluto's geologic features observed by LORRI panchromatic and MVIC multispectral imagers to better understand the geophysical processes in action at the surface of this astonishingly active frozen world.

Schmitt, B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Estimating Evaporative Fraction From Readily Obtainable Variables in Mangrove Forests of the Everglades, U.S.A.

A remote-sensing-based model to estimate evaporative fraction (EF) the ratio of latent heat (LE; energy equivalent of evapotranspiration -ET-) to total available energy from easily obtainable remotely-sensed and meteorological parameters is presented. This research specifically addresses the shortcomings of existing ET retrieval methods such as calibration requirements of extensive accurate in situ micro-meteorological and flux tower observations, or of a large set of coarse-resolution or model-derived input datasets. The trapezoid model is capable of generating spatially varying EF maps from standard products such as land surface temperature [T(sub s)] normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)and daily maximum air temperature [T(sub a)]. The 2009 model results were validated at an eddy-covariance tower (Fluxnet ID: US-Skr) in the Everglades using T(sub s) and NDVI products from Landsat as well as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. Results indicate that the model accuracy is within the range of instrument uncertainty, and is dependent on the spatial resolution and selection of end-members (i.e. wet/dry edge). The most accurate results were achieved with the T(sub s) from Landsat relative to the T(sub s) from the MODIS flown on the Terra and Aqua platforms due to the fine spatial resolution of Landsat (30 m). The bias, mean absolute percentage error and root mean square percentage error were as low as 2.9% (3.0%), 9.8% (13.3%), and 12.1% (16.1%) for Landsat-based (MODIS-based) EF estimates, respectively. Overall, this methodology shows promise for bridging the gap between temporally limited ET estimates at Landsat scales and more complex and difficult to constrain global ET remote-sensing models.

trapezoid↗
NASA NTRS2017

Crater Age and Hydrogen Content in Lunar Regolith from LEND Neutron Data

Analysis of Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) neutron count rates for a large set of mid-latitude craters provides evidence for lower hydrogen content in the crater interiors compared to typical highland values. Epithermal neutron count rates for crater interiors measured by the LEND Sensor for Epithermal Neutrons (SETN) were compared to crater exteriors for 301 craters and displayed an increase in mean count rate at the approx. 9-sigma confidence level, consistent with a lower hydrogen content. A smaller subset of 31 craters also shows a significant increase in Optical Maturity parameter implying an immature regolith. The increase in SETN count rate for these craters is greater than the increase for the full set of craters by more than a factor of two.

Starr, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Building a Quality Controlled Database of Meteorological Data from NASA Kennedy Space Center and the United States Air Force's Eastern Range

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch (EV44) has provided atmospheric databases and analysis in support of space vehicle design and day-of-launch operations for NASA and commercial launch vehicle programs launching from the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC), co-located on the United States Air Force's Eastern Range (ER) at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The ER complex is one of the most heavily instrumented sites in the United States with over 31 towers measuring various atmospheric parameters on a continuous basis. An inherent challenge with large sets of data consists of ensuring erroneous data is removed from databases, and thus excluded from launch vehicle design analyses. EV44 has put forth great effort in developing quality control (QC) procedures for individual meteorological instruments, however no standard QC procedures for all databases currently exists resulting in QC databases that have inconsistencies in variables, methodologies, and periods of record. The goal of this activity is to use the previous efforts by EV44 to develop a standardized set of QC procedures from which to build meteorological databases from KSC and the ER, while maintaining open communication with end users from the launch community to develop ways to improve, adapt and grow the QC database. Details of the QC procedures will be described. As the rate of launches increases with additional launch vehicle programs, it is becoming more important that weather databases are continually updated and checked for data quality before use in launch vehicle design and certification analyses.

Brenton, James C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Orbital Stability Regions for Hypothetical Natural Satellites of 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36)

The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Investigation, Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-Rex) mission will be orbiting and returning a sample from near-Earth asteroid 101955 Bennu. Ground-based observations have determined that no object greater then 15 m in diameter is orbiting Bennu. This investigation explores the possible size and stability of a natural satellite around Bennu. The focus of this research is soley on the existence of stable orbits for a natural satellite and purposefully places how the natural satellite migrated to this orbit outside the bounds of this research. Numerical simulations modeling J2, third-body dynamics and solar radiation pressue is used on a large set of initial conditions that vary in semi-major axis, inclination, longititude of periapsis and natural satellite diameter. Stable orbital initial conditions for a given natural satellite diameter must remain in orbit for more than a thousand years without escape or collision from Bennu. The data found the possible existence of natural satellites in orbit around Bennu as small as 0.75 cm. Certain mechanisms such as the modified Laplace plane, Kozai resonance and the Sun-terminator plane are explored for yielding stable orbits of a given natural satelllite.

asteroids↗
NASA NTRS2018

Aladyn - Adaptive Neural Network Molecular Dynamics Simulation Code: Computational Materials Mini-Application

This report provides an overview and commands description of the Computational Materials mini-application, Aladyn. Aladyn is a simple molecular dynamics code written in FORTRAN 2008, which is designed to demonstrate the use of adaptive neural networks (ANNs) in atomistic simulations. The role of ANNs is to reproduce the very complex energy landscape resulting from the atomic interactions in materials with the accuracy of quantum mechanics-based energy calculations. The ANN is trained on a large set of atomic structures calculated using the density functional theory (DFT) method. The Aladyn code is being released to serve as a training testbed for students and professors in academia to explore possible optimization algorithms for parallel computing on multicore central processing unit (CPU) computers or computers utilizing many core architectures based on graphic processing units (GPUs). The effort is related to the High Performance Computing Incubator (HPCI) project at NASA Langley Research Center.

Yamakov, Vesselin I.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Stability and Spin-Orbit Resonance Analysis of Low Altitude Martian Orbits

Orbit stability has been thoughtfully studied in various celestial bodies. In particular the focus has been placed on the Moon, due to the unstable natural perturbations of its gravity field. The increasing interest in Mars orbiters brings the question of the likelihood of natural decay in low altitude regimes. This paper studies the change in shape of low altitude Mars orbits by carrying out large sets of numerical high fidelity simulations. Results showed that various configurations of the orbital elements gave perturbations that result-ed in unstable orbits. The paper also studies the potential causes of the observed unstable regions. First by taking a close look at zonal and tesseral harmonics to find the implications of Mars mass concentrations of the used gravity fields, and second by computing theoretical spin-orbit resonances to study their implications in the stability at low altitudes.

gravity perturbations↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessment and Validation of Collision "Consequence" Method of Assessing Orbital Regime Risk Posed by Potential Satellite Conjunctions

Collision risk management theory requires a thorough assessment of both the likelihood and consequence of potential collision events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing the likelihood of collision but neglects to account for the consequences of a given collision. While any collision may compromise the operational survival of a spacecraft, the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. Previous studies leveraged work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method to estimate whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris. The approximation of the number of debris pieces is dependent on a mass estimation process for the secondary objects utilizing the radar cross section of said object. This study examines the validity of the mass estimation process and establishes uncertainty bounds on the secondary object mass, which will be used to best approximate the possible consequences of a potential collision. This process is then applied to a large set of historical conjunctions to assess the frequency at which possible collisions may significantly augment the orbital debris environment in operational spacecraft.

Collision Consequence↗