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Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Analysis

This Technical Publication (TP) is meant to address a number of topics related to the application of Monte Carlo simulation to launch vehicle design and requirements analysis. Although the focus is on a launch vehicle application, the methods may be applied to other complex systems as well. The TP is organized so that all the important topics are covered in the main text, and detailed derivations are in the appendices. The TP first introduces Monte Carlo simulation and the major topics to be discussed, including discussion of the input distributions for Monte Carlo runs, testing the simulation, how many runs are necessary for verification of requirements, what to do if results are desired for events that happen only rarely, and postprocessing, including analyzing any failed runs, examples of useful output products, and statistical information for generating desired results from the output data. Topics in the appendices include some tables for requirements verification, derivation of the number of runs required and generation of output probabilistic data with consumer risk included, derivation of launch vehicle models to include possible variations of assembled vehicles, minimization of a consumable to achieve a two-dimensional statistical result, recontact probability during staging, ensuring duplicated Monte Carlo random variations, and importance sampling.

Hanson, J. M.↗

SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

Materials Compatibility Testing in Concentrated Hydrogen Peroxide

Materials test methods from the 1960's have been used as a starting point in evaluating materials for today's space launch vehicles. These established test methods have been modified to incorporate today's analytical laboratory equipment. The Orbital test objective was to test a wide range of materials to incorporate the revolution in polymer and composite materials that has occurred since the 1960's. Testing is accomplished in 3 stages from rough screening to detailed analytical tests. Several interesting test observations have been made during this testing and are included in the paper. A summary of the set-up, test and evaluation of long-term storage sub-scale tanks is also included. This sub-scale tank test lasted for a 7-month duration prior to being stopped due to a polar boss material breakdown. Chemical evaluations of the hydrogen peroxide and residue left on the polar boss surface identify the material breakdown quite clearly. The paper concludes with recommendations for future testing and a specific effort underway within the industry to standardize the test methods used in evaluating materials.

Boxwell, R.↗

OPTICAL SPECTROSCOPIC OBSERVATIONS OF GAMMA-RAY BLAZAR CANDIDATES. IV. RESULTS OF THE 2014 FOLLOW-UP CAMPAIGN

The extragalactic γ-ray sky is dominated by the emission arising from blazars, one of the most peculiar classes of radio-loud active galaxies. Since the launch of Fermi several methods were developed to search for blazars as potential counterparts of unidentified γ-ray sources (UGSs). To confirm the nature of the selected candidates, optical spectroscopic observations are necessary. In 2013 we started a spectroscopic campaign to investigate γ-ray blazar candidates selected according to different procedures. The main goals of our campaign are: (1) to confirm the nature of these candidates, and (2) whenever possible, determine their redshifts. Optical spectroscopic observations will also permit us to verify the robustness of the proposed associations and check for the presence of possible source class contaminants to our counterpart selection. This paper reports the results of observations carried out in 2014 in the northern hemisphere with Kitt Peak National Observatory and in the southern hemisphere with the Southern Astrophysical Research telescopes. We also report three sources observed with the Magellan and Palomar telescopes. Our selection of blazar-like sources that could be potential counterparts of UGSs is based on their peculiar infrared colors and on their combination with radio observations both at high and low frequencies (i.e., above and below ∼1 GHz) in publicly available large radio surveys. We present the optical spectra of 27 objects. We confirm the blazar-like nature of nine sources that appear to be potential low-energy counterparts of UGSs. Then we present new spectroscopic observations of 10 active galaxies of uncertain type associated with Fermi sources, classifying all of them as blazars. In addition, we present the spectra for five known γ-ray blazars with uncertain redshift estimates and three BL Lac candidates that were observed during our campaign. We also report the case for WISE J173052.85−035247.2, candidate counterpart of the source 2FGL J1730.6−0353, which has no radio counterpart in the major radio surveys. We confirm that our selection of γ-ray blazars candidates can successfully indentify low-energy counterparts to Fermi unassociated sources and allow us to discover new blazars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis and modeling of infrasound from a four-stage rocket launch

Infrasound from a four-stage sounding rocket was recorded by several arrays within 100 km of the launch pad. Propagation modeling methods have been applied to the known trajectory to predict infrasonic signals at the ground in order to identify what information might be obtained from such observations. There is good agreement between modeled and observed back azimuths, and predicted arrival times for motor ignition signals match those observed. The signal due to the high-altitude stage ignition is found to be low amplitude, despite predictions of weak attenuation. As a result, this lack of signal is possibly due to inefficient aeroacoustic coupling in the rarefied upper atmosphere.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

GLOBAL ENERGETICS OF SOLAR FLARES. IV. CORONAL MASS EJECTION ENERGETICS

This study entails the fourth part of a global flare energetics project, in which the mass m {sub cme}, kinetic energy E {sub kin}, and the gravitational potential energy E {sub grav} of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is measured in 399 M and X-class flare events observed during the first 3.5 years of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission, using a new method based on the EUV dimming effect. EUV dimming is modeled in terms of a radial adiabatic expansion process, which is fitted to the observed evolution of the total emission measure of the CME source region. The model derives the evolution of the mean electron density, the emission measure, the bulk plasma expansion velocity, the mass, and the energy in the CME source region. The EUV dimming method is truly complementary to the Thomson scattering method in white light, which probes the CME evolution in the heliosphere at r ≳ 2 R {sub ⊙}, while the EUV dimming method tracks the CME launch in the corona. We compare the CME parameters obtained in white light with the LASCO/C2 coronagraph with those obtained from EUV dimming with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly onboard the SDO for all identical events in both data sets. We investigate correlations between CME parameters, the relative timing with flare parameters, frequency occurrence distributions, and the energy partition between magnetic, thermal, nonthermal, and CME energies. CME energies are found to be systematically lower than the dissipated magnetic energies, which is consistent with a magnetic origin of CMEs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Abort Region Determinator (ARD) module feasibility report. Mission planning, mission analysis and software formulation

A detailed performance evaluation of the Abort Region Determinator (ARD) module design was provided in support of OFT-1 ascent and OFT-1 intact launch aborts. The evaluation method used compared ARD results against results obtained using the full-up Space Vehicle Dynamic Simulations program under the same conditions. Results were presented for each of the three major ARD math models: (1) the ascent numerical integrator; (2) the mass model, and (3) the second stage predictor as well as the total ARD module. These results demonstrate that the baselined ARD module meets all design objectives for mission control center orbital flight test launch/abort support.

Draeger, B. G.↗

The ground processing simulator - A tool for mission model analysis and planning from a launch site perspective

The Ground Processing Simulator (GPS) is a computer-assisted planning tool designed and developed for Space Shuttle launch site application. Utilizing two programming languages, General Purpose Simulation System and FORTRAN, GPS provides the capability to analyze proposed Shuttle mission models via computer simulation. NASA-developed mission models which specify Shuttle launch rates, mission durations, cargo elements, and designated launch site are tested for feasibility by the simulator. GPS produces facility utilization schedules (including the identification of conflicts), launch data options, cargo element requirement dates, ground support equipment inventory requirements, and other data necessary to assess both the programmatic and launch site resources required to support proposed mission models. The purpose of this computer-assisted analysis is to determine methods which will permit the launching of the maximum number of cargoes per year on schedule, and in the sequence desired, with the minimum expenditure of resources.

Ralph, J. A.↗

Some implications of reciprocity for two-way clock synchronization

The difficulties related to propagation perturbances in one-way and two-way methods for the synchronization of remote clocks are defined, and a possible means of circumventing these problems in the two-way method is suggested. In the two-way method, if signals are launched from two sources, A and B, then the two signals arriving at A and B will be displaced in arrival time by an amount that is equal to the difference in launch times of the two signals. Thus, the only condition to comparing clocks is that the medium be isotropic. The practice implementation of this is explored theoretically, in some detail, with respect to the Loran-C navigation system.

Jespersen, J. L.↗

Aeroelastic analysis of hammerhead payloads

A launch vehicle aeroelastic stability method is presented in order to treat transonic flight problems that are characteristic of 'hammerhead' payload geometries. Navier-Stokes formulation-based CFD techniques are used to simulate the unsteady aerodynamic flowfields, and time-domain aeroelastic analyses are performed by coupling this flow solver with a modal representation of the vehicle's structural-dynamic characteristics. Numerical applications encompass the study of an Atlas-Able IV configuration in various flight conditions; good qualitative agreement with observations is obtained.

Azevedo, Joao Luis F.↗

Summary of DSN (Deep Space Network) reimbursable launch support

The Deep Space Network is providing ground support to space agencies of foreign governments as well as to NASA and other agencies of the Federal government which are involved in space activities. DSN funding for support of missions other than NASA are on either a cooperative or a reimbursable basis. Cooperative funding and support are accomplished in the same manner as NASA sponsored missions. Reimbursable launch funding and support methods are described.

Fanelli, N. A.↗

AVHRR-Based Polar Pathfinder Products: Evaluation, Enhancement and Transition to MODIS

Study of the environment has historically been done with observations and measurements in relatively few local areas. While some of these have been done over long time spans, most have not. The NOAA/NASA Pathfinder project was initiated to complement these data sets with satellite data that can provide information over larger spatial areas and longer time spans. The AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APR) program was part of this project. The APR was to supply data from the NOAA AVHRR instruments that was consistently generated in a format usable to a wide range of scientific investigators. A grant was obtained from the NASA Research Announcement 97-MTPE-03 to evaluate the APP products, to provide any enhancements, and to compare with products from the new MODIS instrument. There was about a two year overlap between the projects, and this validation effort had several impacts on the APP products. The APP products are derived from the instruments aboard 4 NOAA satellites, NOAA-7, 9, 11, and 14. Initial validation efforts compared the thermal calibrations of these instruments, and differences are found. Calibration has undergone many revisions and techniques have changed since the satellites were launched. The first calibration methods were optimized for global ocean temperatures, as this was one of the primary and important uses of the AVHRR instruments. As the APP program started, newer methods that provided more accurate temperature retrievals over a wider range of temperatures were being developed. The calibration of a wider range of temperatures were necessary because of the extremely low values in the polar regions. These methods were also designed so that calibrated data was also consistent between all the NOAA satellites. These newer calibration methods were then adopted primarily because of the initial finding of this validation effort.

Fowler, Charles↗

Geosynchronous Environment for ORDEM2008

The new version of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2008) requires accurate populations as input template files to be used in the calculation of orbital debris fluxes on chosen spacecraft or within telescope/radar fields-of-view. Populations in ORDEM2008 are derived from a consortium of data and modeling. Geosynchronous (GEO) satellites and debris form a distinct ORDEM2008 population that is applied to the distinct analysis of GEO fluxes. Low Earth orbit (LEO) populations are derived by combining modeling results with ground-based data, primarily from radar systems and in-situ data. In contrast, the GEO region has not been as well observed. The distance between orbiting objects and ground-based instruments precludes the wide usage of radar as a means of observation. Instead, optical instruments dominate in the study of GEO. Of these, the NASA sponsored Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) has provided 4 years of surveys of the region detecting cataloged objects (correlated targets) and non-cataloged objects (uncorrelated targets) to an estimated minimum size of 30 cm. This paper describes the methods of combining NASA launch database and satellite breakup and orbital propagation modeling with MODEST 2004-to-2006 uncorrelated target data to attain a GEO environment to 10 cm. Assuming that MODEST uncorrelated targets are breakup debris allows for the extension of the debris survey data to smaller sizes with the NASA Standard Breakup model. Each orbit within the total resulting GEO population is marked by a random argument of perigee and nearly constant mean motion, eccentricity, inclination, and node over the nearly 3 years of observation. Lack of published references of past breakups in GEO is mitigated by the orbital propagation of MODEST extended data to 1995 (the beginning epoch of ORDEM2008).

Krisko, Paula H.↗

The Geosynchrous Environment for ORDEM2010

The new version of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2010) requires accurate populations as input files to be used in the calculation of orbital debris fluxes on chosen spacecraft or within telescope/radar fields-of-view. Populations in ORDEM2010 are derived from an amalgam of data and modeling. Geosynchronous orbit (GEO) satellites and debris form a distinct ORDEM2010 population that is applied to the distinct analysis of GEO fluxes. Low Earth orbit (LEO) populations are derived by combining modeling results with ground-based data, primarily from radar systems, and in-situ data. In contrast, the GEO region has not been as well observed. The distance between orbiting objects and ground-based instruments precludes the wide usage of radar as a means of observation. Instead, optical instruments dominate in the study of GEO. Of these, the NASA sponsored Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) has provided 3 years of surveys of the region detecting cataloged objects (correlated targets) and non-cataloged objects (uncorrelated targets) to an estimated minimum size of 30 cm. This paper describes the methods of combining NASA launch database and satellite breakup and orbital propagation modeling with MODEST 2004-to-2006 uncorrelated target data to attain a GEO environment to 10 cm. Assuming that MODEST uncorrelated targets are breakup debris allows for the extension of the debris survey data to smaller sizes using the NASA Standard Breakup Model. Each orbit within the total resulting GEO population is marked by a random argument of perigee and nearly constant mean motion, eccentricity, inclination, and right ascension of ascending node (RAAN) over the nearly 3 years of observation. Lack of published references of past breakups in GEO is mitigated by the orbital propagation of MODEST extended data to 1995 (the beginning epoch of ORDEM2010).

Krisko, Paula H.↗

Human Modeling For Ground Processing Human Factors Engineering Analysis

There have been many advancements and accomplishments over that last few years using human modeling for human factors engineering analysis for design of spacecraft and launch vehicles. The key methods used for this are motion capture and computer generated human models. The focus of this paper is to explain the different types of human modeling used currently and in the past at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) currently, and to explain the future plans for human modeling for future spacecraft designs.

Tran, Donald↗

A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Determine Sensor Radiometric Response Coefficients for NPP VIIRS Reflective Solar Bands

Optical sensors aboard Earth orbiting satellites such as the next generation Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) assume that the sensors radiometric response in the Reflective Solar Bands (RSB) is described by a quadratic polynomial, in relating the aperture spectral radiance to the sensor Digital Number (DN) readout. For VIIRS Flight Unit 1, the coefficients are to be determined before launch by an attenuation method, although the linear coefficient will be further determined on-orbit through observing the Solar Diffuser. In determining the quadratic polynomial coefficients by the attenuation method, a Maximum Likelihood approach is applied in carrying out the least-squares procedure. Crucial to the Maximum Likelihood least-squares procedure is the computation of the weight. The weight not only has a contribution from the noise of the sensor s digital count, with an important contribution from digitization error, but also is affected heavily by the mathematical expression used to predict the value of the dependent variable, because both the independent and the dependent variables contain random noise. In addition, model errors have a major impact on the uncertainties of the coefficients. The Maximum Likelihood approach demonstrates the inadequacy of the attenuation method model with a quadratic polynomial for the retrieved spectral radiance. We show that using the inadequate model dramatically increases the uncertainties of the coefficients. We compute the coefficient values and their uncertainties, considering both measurement and model errors.

Lei, Ning↗

Link Analysis in the Mission Planning Lab

The legacy communications link analysis software currently used at Wallops Flight Facility involves processes that are different for command destruct, radar, and telemetry. There is a clear advantage to developing an easy-to-use tool that combines all the processes in one application. Link Analysis in the Mission Planning Lab (MPL) uses custom software and algorithms integrated with Analytical Graphics Inc. Satellite Toolkit (AGI STK). The MPL link analysis tool uses pre/post-mission data to conduct a dynamic link analysis between ground assets and the launch vehicle. Just as the legacy methods do, the MPL link analysis tool calculates signal strength and signal- to-noise according to the accepted processes for command destruct, radar, and telemetry assets. Graphs and other custom data are generated rapidly in formats for reports and presentations. STK is used for analysis as well as to depict plume angles and antenna gain patterns in 3D. The MPL has developed two interfaces with the STK software (see figure). The first interface is an HTML utility, which was developed in Visual Basic to enhance analysis for plume modeling and to offer a more user friendly, flexible tool. A graphical user interface (GUI) written in MATLAB (see figure upper right-hand corner) is also used to quickly depict link budget information for multiple ground assets. This new method yields a dramatic decrease in the time it takes to provide launch managers with the required link budgets to make critical pre-mission decisions. The software code used for these two custom utilities is a product of NASA's MPL.

McCarthy, Jessica A.↗