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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging and its predictive analysis for groundwater reactive transport models

While Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been widely used in groundwater modeling, it is infrequently applied to groundwater reactive transport modeling because of multiple sources of uncertainty in the coupled hydrogeochemical processes and because of the long execution time of each model run. To resolve these problems, this study analyzed different levels of uncertainty in a hierarchical way, and used the maximum likelihood version of BMA, i.e., MLBMA, to improve the computational efficiency. Our study demonstrates the applicability of MLBMA to groundwater reactive transport modeling in a synthetic case in which twenty-seven reactive transport models were designed to predict the reactive transport of hexavalent uranium (U(VI)) based on observations at a former uranium mill site near Naturita, CO. Moreover, these reactive transport models contain three uncertain model components, i.e., parameterization of hydraulic conductivity, configuration of model boundary, and surface complexation reactions that simulate U(VI) adsorption. These uncertain model components were aggregated into the alternative models by integrating a hierarchical structure into MLBMA. The modeling results of the individual models and MLBMA were analyzed to investigate their predictive performance. The predictive logscore results show that MLBMA generally outperforms the best model, suggesting that using MLBMA is a sound strategy to achieve more robust model predictions relative to a single model. MLBMA works best when the alternative models are structurally distinct and have diverse model predictions. When correlation in model structure exists, two strategies were used to improve predictive performance by retaining structurally distinct models or assigning smaller prior model probabilities to correlated models. Since the synthetic models were designed using data from the Naturita site, the results of this study are expected to provide guidance for real-world modeling. Finally, limitations of applying MLBMA to the synthetic study and future real-world modeling are discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Optimization of a Nucleic Acids united-RESidue 2-Point model (NARES-2P) with a maximum-likelihood approach

Coarse-grained models are useful tools to investigate the structural and thermodynamic properties of biomolecules. They are obtained by merging several atoms into one interaction site. Such simplified models try to capture as much as possible information of the original biomolecular system in all-atom representation but the resulting parameters of these coarse-grained force fields still need further optimization. In this paper, a force field optimization method, which is based on maximum-likelihood fitting of the simulated to the experimental conformational ensembles and least-squares fitting of the simulated to the experimental heat-capacity curves, is applied to optimize the Nucleic Acid united-RESidue 2-point (NARES-2P) model for coarse-grained simulations of nucleic acids recently developed in our laboratory. The optimized NARES-2P force field reproduces the structural and thermodynamic data of small DNA molecules much better than the original force field.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

A maximum likelihood analysis of the CoGeNT public dataset

The CoGeNT detector, located in the Soudan Underground Laboratory in Northern Minnesota, consists of a 475 grams (fiducial mass of 330 grams) target mass of p-type point contact germanium detector that measures the ionization charge created by nuclear recoils. This detector has searched for recoils created by dark matter since December of 2009. We analyze the public dataset from the CoGeNT experiment to search for evidence of dark matter interactions with the detector. We perform an unbinned maximum likelihood fit to the data and compare the significance of different WIMP hypotheses relative to each other and the null hypothesis of no WIMP interactions. This work presents the current status of the analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

A maximum likelihood approach to estimating correlation functions

We define a maximum likelihood (ML for short) estimator for the correlation function, ξ, that uses the same pair counting observables (D, R, DD, DR, RR) as the standard Landy and Szalay (LS for short) estimator. The ML estimator outperforms the LS estimator in that it results in smaller measurement errors at any fixed random point density. Put another way, the ML estimator can reach the same precision as the LS estimator with a significantly smaller random point catalog. Moreover, these gains are achieved without significantly increasing the computational requirements for estimating ξ. We quantify the relative improvement of the ML estimator over the LS estimator and discuss the regimes under which these improvements are most significant. We present a short guide on how to implement the ML estimator and emphasize that the code alterations required to switch from an LS to an ML estimator are minimal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

An inconsistency in the standard maximum likelihood estimation of bulk flows

Maximum likelihood estimation of the bulk flow from radial peculiar motions of galaxies generally assumes a constant velocity field inside the survey volume. This assumption is inconsistent with the definition of bulk flow as the average of the peculiar velocity field over the relevant volume. This follows from a straightforward mathematical relation between the bulk flow of a sphere and the velocity potential on its surface. This inconsistency also exists for ideal data with exact radial velocities and full spatial coverage. Based on the same relation, we propose a simple modification to correct for this inconsistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

A combined maximum-likelihood analysis of the high-energy astrophysical neutrino flux measured with IceCube

Evidence for an extraterrestrial flux of high-energy neutrinos has now been found in multiple searches with the IceCube detector. The first solid evidence was provided by a search for neutrino events with deposited energies ≳30 TeV and interaction vertices inside the instrumented volume. Recent analyses suggest that the extraterrestrial flux extends to lower energies and is also visible with throughgoing, ν{sub μ}-induced tracks from the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we combine the results from six different IceCube searches for astrophysical neutrinos in a maximum-likelihood analysis. The combined event sample features high-statistics samples of shower-like and track-like events. The data are fit in up to three observables: energy, zenith angle, and event topology. Assuming the astrophysical neutrino flux to be isotropic and to consist of equal flavors at Earth, the all-flavor spectrum with neutrino energies between 25 TeV and 2.8 PeV is well described by an unbroken power law with best-fit spectral index −2.50 ± 0.09 and a flux at 100 TeV of (6.7{sub −1.2}{sup +1.1})×10{sup −18} GeV{sup −1} s{sup −1} sr{sup −1} cm{sup −2}. Under the same assumptions, an unbroken power law with index −2 is disfavored with a significance of 3.8σ (p = 0.0066%) with respect to the best fit. This significance is reduced to 2.1σ (p = 1.7%) if instead we compare the best fit to a spectrum with index −2 that has an exponential cut-off at high energies. Allowing the electron-neutrino flux to deviate from the other two flavors, we find a ν{sub e} fraction of 0.18 ± 0.11 at Earth. The sole production of electron neutrinos, which would be characteristic of neutron-decay-dominated sources, is rejected with a significance of 3.6σ (p = 0.014%).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ANALYSIS OF SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN INTERFEROMETRIC OBSERVATIONS OF THE COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND

We investigate the impact of instrumental systematic errors in interferometric measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectra. We simulate interferometric CMB observations to generate mock visibilities and estimate power spectra using the statistically optimal maximum likelihood technique. We define a quadratic error measure to determine allowable levels of systematic error that does not induce power spectrum errors beyond a given tolerance. As an example, in this study we focus on differential pointing errors. The effects of other systematics can be simulated by this pipeline in a straightforward manner. We find that, in order to accurately recover the underlying B-modes for r = 0.01 at 28 < l < 384, Gaussian-distributed pointing errors must be controlled to 0. Degree-Sign 7 root mean square for an interferometer with an antenna configuration similar to QUBIC, in agreement with analytical estimates. Only the statistical uncertainty for 28 < l < 88 would be changed at {approx}10% level. With the same instrumental configuration, we find that the pointing errors would slightly bias the 2{sigma} upper limit of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r by {approx}10%. We also show that the impact of pointing errors on the TB and EB measurements is negligibly small.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Normalizing flows for likelihood-free inference with fusion simulations

Fluid-based scrape-off layer transport codes, such as UEDGE, are heavily utilized in tokamak analysis and design, but typically require user-specified anomalous transport coefficients to match experiments. Determining the uniqueness of these parameters and the uncertainties in them to match experiments can provide valuable insights to fusion scientists. Here, we leverage recent work in the area of likelihood-free inference (‘simulation-based inference’) to train a neural network, which enables accurate statistical inference of the anomalous transport coefficients given experimental plasma profile input. UEDGE is treated as a black-box simulator and runs multiple times with anomalous transport coefficients sampled from priors, and the neural network is trained on these simulations to emulate the posterior. The neural network is trained as a normalizing flow model for density estimation, allowing it to accurately represent complicated, high-dimensional distribution functions. With a fixed simulation budget, we compare a single-round procedure to a multi-round approach that guides the training simulations toward a specific target observation. Finally, we discuss the future possibilities for use of amortized models, which train on a wide range of simulations and enable fast statistical inference for results during experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Influence of the Number of Tree Searches on Maximum Likelihood Inference in Phylogenomics

Maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic inference is widely used in phylogenomics. As heuristic searches most likely find suboptimal trees, it is recommended to conduct multiple (e.g., 10) tree searches in phylogenetic analyses. However, beyond its positive role, how and to what extent multiple tree searches aid ML phylogenetic inference remains poorly explored. Here, we found that a random starting tree was not as effective as the BioNJ and parsimony starting trees in inferring the ML gene tree and that RAxML-NG and PhyML were less sensitive to different starting trees than IQ-TREE. We then examined the effect of the number of tree searches on ML tree inference with IQ-TREE and RAxML-NG, by running 100 tree searches on 19,414 gene alignments from 15 animal, plant, and fungal phylogenomic datasets. We found that the number of tree searches substantially impacted the recovery of the best-of-100 ML gene tree topology among 100 searches for a given ML program. In addition, all of the concatenation-based trees were topologically identical if the number of tree searches was ≥10. Quartet-based ASTRAL trees inferred from 1 to 80 tree searches differed topologically from those inferred from 100 tree searches for 6/15 phylogenomic datasets. Lastly, our simulations showed that gene alignments with lower difficulty scores had a higher chance of finding the best-of-100 gene tree topology and were more likely to yield the correct trees.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Maximum likelihood method to correct for missed levels based on the {Delta}{sub 3}(L) statistic

The {Delta}{sub 3}(L) statistic of random matrix theory is defined as the average of a set of random numbers {l_brace}{delta}{r_brace}, derived from a spectrum. The distribution p({delta}) of these random numbers is used as the basis of a maximum likelihood method to gauge the fraction x of levels missed in an experimental spectrum. The method is tested on an ensemble of depleted spectra from the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) and accurately returned the correct fraction of missed levels. Neutron resonance data and acoustic spectra of an aluminum block were analyzed. All results were compared with an analysis based on an established expression for {Delta}{sub 3}(L) for a depleted GOE spectrum. The effects of intruder levels are examined and seen to be very similar to those of missed levels. Shell model spectra were seen to give the same p({delta}) as the GOE.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Likelihood-based interactive local docking into cryo-EM maps in ChimeraX

The interpretation of cryo-EM maps often includes the docking of known or predicted structures of the components, which is particularly useful when the map resolution is worse than 4 Å. Although it can be effective to search the entire map to find the best placement of a component, the process can be slow when the maps are large. However, frequently there is a well-founded hypothesis about where particular components are located. In such cases, a local search using a map subvolume will be much faster because the search volume is smaller, and more sensitive because optimizing the search volume for the rotation-search step enhances the signal to noise. A Fourier-space likelihood-based local search approach, based on the previously published em_placement software, has been implemented in the new emplace_local program. Tests confirm that the local search approach enhances the speed and sensitivity of the computations. An interactive graphical interface in the ChimeraX molecular-graphics program provides a convenient way to set up and evaluate docking calculations, particularly in defining the part of the map into which the components should be placed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

An Informative Interpretation of Decision Theory: The Information Theoretic Basis for Signal-to-Noise Ratio and Log Likelihood Ratio

The signal processing concept of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), in its role as a performance measure, is recast within the more general context of information theory, leading to a series of useful insights. Establishing generalized SNR (GSNR) as a rigorous information theoretic measure inherent in any set of observations significantly strengthens its quantitative performance pedigree while simultaneously providing a specific definition under general conditions. This directly leads to consideration of the log likelihood ratio (LLR): first, as the simplest possible information-preserving transformation (i.e., signal processing algorithm) and subsequently, as an absolute, comparable measure of information for any specific observation exemplar. Furthermore, the information accounting methodology that results permits practical use of both GSNR and LLR as diagnostic scalar performance measurements, directly comparable across alternative system/algorithm designs, applicable at any tap point within any processing string, in a form that is also comparable with the inherent performance bounds due to information conservation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bearing Fault Detection on Wind Turbine Gearbox Vibrations Using Generalized Likelihood Ratio-Based Indicators

Studies in condition monitoring literature often aim to detect rolling element bearing faults because they have one of the biggest shares among defects in turbo machinery. Accordingly, several prognosis and diagnosis methods have been devised to identify fault signatures from vibration signals. A recently proposed method to capture the rolling element bearing degradation provides the groundwork for new indicator families utilizing the generalized likelihood ratio test. This novel approach exploits the cyclostationarity and the impulsiveness of vibration signals independently in order to estimate the most suitable indicators for a given fault. However, the method has yet to be tested on complex experimental vibration signals such as those of a wind turbine gearbox. In this study, the approach is applied to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory Wind Turbine Gearbox Condition Monitoring Round Robin Study data set for bearing fault detection purposes. The data set is measured on an experimental test rig of a wind turbine gearbox; hence the complexity of the vibration signals is similar to a real case. The outcome demonstrates that the proposed method is capable of distinguishing between healthy and damaged vibration signals measured on a complex wind turbine gearbox.

condition monitoring↗
DOE OSTI2016

Penalized maximum likelihood reconstruction for x-ray differential phase-contrast tomography

Purpose: The purpose of this work is to propose a cost function with regularization to iteratively reconstruct attenuation, phase, and scatter images simultaneously from differential phase contrast (DPC) acquisitions, without the need of phase retrieval, and examine its properties. Furthermore this reconstruction method is applied to an acquisition pattern that is suitable for a DPC tomographic system with continuously rotating gantry (sliding window acquisition), overcoming the severe smearing in noniterative reconstruction. Methods: We derive a penalized maximum likelihood reconstruction algorithm to directly reconstruct attenuation, phase, and scatter image from the measured detector values of a DPC acquisition. The proposed penalty comprises, for each of the three images, an independent smoothing prior. Image quality of the proposed reconstruction is compared to images generated with FBP and iterative reconstruction after phase retrieval. Furthermore, the influence between the priors is analyzed. Finally, the proposed reconstruction algorithm is applied to experimental sliding window data acquired at a synchrotron and results are compared to reconstructions based on phase retrieval. Results: The results show that the proposed algorithm significantly increases image quality in comparison to reconstructions based on phase retrieval. No significant mutual influence between the proposed independent priors could be observed. Further it could be illustrated that the iterative reconstruction of a sliding window acquisition results in images with substantially reduced smearing artifacts. Conclusions: Although the proposed cost function is inherently nonconvex, it can be used to reconstruct images with less aliasing artifacts and less streak artifacts than reconstruction methods based on phase retrieval. Furthermore, the proposed method can be used to reconstruct images of sliding window acquisitions with negligible smearing artifacts.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Maximum likelihood estimation of difference scaling functions for suprathreshold judgments

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been used to produce perceptual scales from binary judgments of triads and quadruples. This method relies on Thurstone’s theory of a stochastic perceptual process where the perceived difference of two stimuli is the difference in their perceived strengths. It is possible that the perception of a suprathreshold difference is overestimated when adding smaller differences, a phenomenon referred to as diminishing returns. The current approach to construct a perceptual scale using MLE does not account for this phenomenon. We present a way to model the perception of differences using MLE and Thurstone’s theory, adapted to allow the possibility of diminishing returns. This method is validated using Monte Carlo simulated responses to experimental triads and can correctly model diminishing returns, the absence of diminishing returns, and the opposite of diminishing returns both in the cases when a perceptual scale is known and when the true perceived strengths of the stimuli are unknown. Additionally, this method was applied to empirical data sets to determine its feasibility in investigations of perception. Ultimately, it was found that this analysis allows for more accurate modeling of suprathreshold difference judgments, a more complete understanding of the perceptual processes underlying comparisons, and the evaluation of Thurstone’s theory of difference judgments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2010

Determination of linear displacement by envelope detection with maximum likelihood estimation

We demonstrate in this report an envelope detection technique with maximum likelihood estimation in a least square sense for determining displacement. This technique is achieved by sampling the amplitudes of quadrature signals resulted from a heterodyne interferometer so that the resolution of displacement measurement of the order of {lambda}/10{sup 4} is experimentally verified. A phase unwrapping procedure is also described and experimentally demonstrated and indicates that the unambiguity range of displacement can be measured beyond a single wavelength.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Likelihood Methods for CMB Experiments

A great deal of experimental effort is currently being devoted to the precise measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) sky in temperature and polarization. Satellites, balloon-borne, and ground-based experiments scrutinize the CMB sky at multiple scales, and therefore enable to investigate not only the evolution of the early Universe, but also its late-time physics with unprecedented accuracy. The pipeline leading from time ordered data as collected by the instrument to the final product is highly structured. Moreover, it has also to provide accurate estimates of statistical and systematic uncertainties connected to the specific experiment. In this paper, we review likelihood approaches targeted to the analysis of the CMB signal at different scales, and to the estimation of key cosmological parameters. We consider methods that analyze the data in the spatial (i.e., pixel-based) or harmonic domain. We highlight the most relevant aspects of each approach and compare their performance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗