Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Load Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Practical challenges of model predictive control (MPC) for grid interactive small and medium commercial buildings

To the urgent call for mitigating climate change, substantial initiatives have been undertaken to deploy grid-interactive heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) controls, such as model predictive control (MPC) for buildings. These efforts typically aim to curtail peak energy demand, shift load and enhance overall energy efficiency. With the recent development of low-cost MPC technologies that don’t require extensive instrumentation or manual modeling, small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), which rarely utilize advanced HVAC control systems, have become candidates for grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). However, despite the potential benefits and maturity of the technology itself, several practical challenges remain in real-world implementation. In this paper, we share the practical challenges that we have encountered in implementing and testing three types of MPC solutions (ON/OFF unit, dualfuel, and VRF systems) on multiple SMCB sites. We describe the MPC deployment process and discuss the lessons learned. The site selection, eligibility, and retrofit availability (e.g., utility price structure, thermostat communications, etc.) are the main discussion points at the beginning of the project. Also, the modeling automation and the best practices for interacting with endusers and handling erroneous situations are presented for successful operations.

woo Ham, Sang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validation of 3D MHD simulations of Ne/D 2 mixed shattered pellet injection in JET

Nonlinear 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modeling of shattered pellet injection (SPI) in JET tokamak plasmas is performed with the JOREK code. The study focuses on the validation of simulation result with respect to experimental observations, addressing in particular figures of merit for the efficiency of the SPI, as a technique to mitigate thermal loads by injecting radiative impurities like neon during the thermal quench (TQ) phase of disruptions. A set of JET pulses with neon/deuterium atomic mixture ratio in the shattered pellet varying from 10% to 100% provides the experimental data to be compared with. Simulations using different models for the ablation of solid fragments and the radiation of neon impurities are considered. Synthetic diagnostics are employed for a direct quantitative comparison with key JET diagnostic systems providing in particular radiation, electron temperature and density, and magnetic measurements. 3D radiation structures from MHD simulations are analyzed to estimate the toroidal asymmetry of radiation, which is difficult to measure in JET due to the presence of only two toroidally displaced multi-channel bolometry systems. JOREK simulations show that, before the TQ, the bulk of the radiation is concentrated in a toroidal region enclosing the radiating fragments that is missed by both multi-channel bolometers, suggesting a possible underestimation of the total radiation by such diagnostic systems in the pre-TQ phase. On the other hand, JOREK predicts that during the TQ the radiation becomes more toroidally symmetric, with positive implications for the heat load to plasma facing components.

JOREK↗
DOE OSTI2024

An iterative bidirectional gradient boosting approach for CVR baseline estimation

Here this paper presents a novel Iterative Bidirectional Gradient Boosting Model (IBi-GBM) for estimating the baseline of Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) programs. In contrast to many existing methods, we treat CVR baseline estimation as a missing data retrieval problem. The approach involves dividing the load and its corresponding temperature profiles into three periods: pre-CVR, CVR, and post-CVR. To restore the missing load profile during the CVR period, the method employs a three-step process. First, a forward-pass GBM is executed using data from the pre-CVR period as inputs. Subsequently, a backward-pass GBM is applied using data from the post-CVR period. The two restored load profiles are reconciled, considering pre-calculated weights derived from forecasting accuracy, and only the leftmost and rightmost points are retained. The newly restored points are then included as inputs for the subsequent iteration. This iterative procedure continues until the original load data in the CVR period is fully restored. We develop IBi-GBM using actual smart meter and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data. Our results demonstrate that IBi-GBM exhibits robust performance across various data resolutions and in different seasons and outperforms existing methods by achieving a 1-2% reduction in normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine-Learning-Based Multiscale Methods for 3D Modelling of Granular Materials by Incorporating History-Dependent State Variables

Over the past decades, the prevalence of machine learning (ML) methods has made the development of ML-based constitutive models for granular materials undoubtedly a popular subject. Numerous studies have been made to feature the loading path or history-dependent stress-strain response of granular media using neural networks. In this work, a novel finite element method (FEM)–ML multiscale approach was developed by incorporating internal variables to improve the simulation accuracy of 3D history-dependent granular materials for the first time. To this end, a surrogate constitutive model based on the single-step-based multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network was used to replace representative volume element (RVE) simulations conducted by the discrete element method (DEM) in the multiscale FEM–DEM approach. Although the prediction principle of the MLP aligns with the FEM algorithm, artificially added internal variables are required to differentiate the loading history. To address this issue, history variables associated with the Frobenius norm are proposed to be fed into the MLP coupled with the strain tensor to extract the history-dependent behaviour of granular assemblies. The developed FEM–ML approach was demonstrated in 3D conventional triaxial compression (CTC) simulations. Compared to the multiscale FEM–DEM approach, the proposed FEM–ML method exhibits a significantly improved computational efficiency.

granular materials↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Combined Computational and Mathematical Analysis of Interconnect Fatigue Potential in Photovoltaic Modules

A finite element model of a 60-cell monocrystalline silicon glass-polymer photovoltaic module was simulated with ±1.0 kPa and ±2.4 kPa loads applied to the glass to calculate the deformation under load. Cell-to-cell displacements were used to approximate interconnect strain and stress. A mathematical fatigue cycle life relation was fitted to data for the interconnect material (copper), to generate a life prediction at each interconnect location based on the local stress means, reversal extents, and amplitudes. Interconnect stress was found to be significantly asymmetric about zero despite symmetric positive and negative module loads due to laminate thickness offsets about the neutral plane and the effects of module framing. Cycle life results indicated that interconnect fatigue failure was unlikely to occur over a 30-year lifetime of conservative wind and snow load cycles since the typical cell design feature of leaving some unconstrained length between the cell edge and first solder pad increases the effective gauge length and decreases the stress levels below the material endurance limit. Follow-up analyses found that 3.6 mm and 6.4 mm were the minimum unconstrained lengths required to survive the assumed lifetime of wind and snow cycles, respectively, confirming that typical industrial module constructions with 8–15 mm unconstrained lengths should survive conservatively. Notably, large magnitude, low-cycle snow loading was consistently the limiting factor requiring a longer unconstrained interconnect length. Finally, insights and workflows from this study inform module interconnection design limits for survival against mechanical fatigue in deployment environments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elucidating lipid nanoparticle properties and structure through biophysical analyses

Designing lipid nanoparticle (LNP) delivery systems with specific targeting, potency and minimal side effects is crucial for their clinical use. However, traditional characterization methods, such as dynamic light scattering, cannot accurately quantify physicochemical properties of LNPs and how these are influenced by the lipid composition and mixing method. Here, we structurally characterize polydisperse LNP formulations by applying emerging solution-based biophysical methods that have higher resolution and provide biophysical data beyond size and polydispersity. These techniques include sedimentation velocity analytical ultracentrifugation, field-flow fractionation followed by multiangle light scattering and size-exclusion chromatography in line with synchrotron small-angle X-ray scattering. Here, we show that LNPs have intrinsic polydispersity in size, RNA loading and shape, which depend on both the formulation technique and the lipid composition. Lastly, we predict LNP transfection in vitro and in vivo by examining the relationship between mRNA translation and physicochemical characteristics. Solution-based biophysical methods will be essential for determining LNP structure–function relationships, facilitating the creation of new design rules for LNPs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Linking structural and rheological memory in disordered soft materials

Linking the macroscopic flow properties and nanoscopic structure is a fundamental challenge to understanding, predicting, and designing disordered soft materials. Under small stresses, these materials are soft solids, while larger loads can lead to yielding and the acquisition of plastic strain, which adds complexity to the task. In this work, we connect the transient structure and rheological memory of a colloidal gel under cyclic shearing across a range of amplitudes via a generalized memory function using rheo-X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (rheo-XPCS). Our rheo-XPCS data show that the nanometer scale aggregate-level structure recorrelates whenever the change in recoverable strain over some interval is zero. The macroscopic recoverable strain is therefore a measure of the nano-scale structural memory. We further show that yielding in disordered colloidal materials is strongly heterogeneous and that memories of prior deformation can exist even after the material has been subjected to flow.

Kamani, Krutarth M. [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-C↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heterogeneous energetic material damage simulator (HEDS): A deep learning approach to simulate damage–sensitivity linkages

Damage in the microstructures of energetic materials (EMs), such as propellants and plastic bonded explosives (PBXs), can significantly alter their response to external loads. Both sensitization and desensitization can occur, causing concerns with safety and performance in the field; predictive models that connect damage and the sensitivity of EMs can enable design and provide confidence in their robustness and reliability. However, modeling of damage evolution is challenging for real microstructures of EMs; samples of damaged EMs are difficult to obtain, thereby hindering experiments and direct numerical simulations to determine the sensitivity of EMs at various stages of damage. Here, we develop an approach to generate synthetic, i.e., in silico produced, damaged microstructures for use in simulations to connect damage levels to sensitivity. The development of the present workflow to generate and impose varying levels of damage in microstructures, known as HEDS (Heterogeneous Energetic Material Damage Simulator), begins with a small set of images of damaged PBXs and combines a collection of deep neural network techniques to generate microstructures with varying levels of damage. By making the synthetic microstructures conform closely to those observed in available real, imaged microstructures, we develop an ensemble of damaged microstructures that can be used for in silico shock experiments. HEDS develops these microstructure ensembles as level set fields, which are directly employed in a sharp interface Eulerian hydrocode where shock simulations are performed to quantify the energy release rate from hotspot fields generated in the microstructure. These capabilities can be useful for the analysis and assessment of changes in the sensitivity of EMs and to design formulations that are less susceptible to damage-induced changes in sensitivity and performance.

Fang, Irene (ORCID:0009000844557122)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scalable Thin Light-Emitting Diode (LED) Light Sheet Platform

The goal of the Scalable Thin Light-Emitting Diode (LED) Light Sheet Platform project is to derisk the manufacturing scalability for a high chip count heterogeneous smart lighting platform, with the potential to enable significant energy savings through dynamic directional light control and custom. Specifically, the project derisks the scalability of a disruptive new computer controlled microassembly fabrication process SRI International is developing, to address fundamental cost barriers to mass production of high chip count systems. This is key for enabling mass adoption and thus maximum societal energy savings impact. The LED light sheet technology is a smart illumination platform that can be applied to lighting, signage, and display. It has features and a form factor similar to bendable or conformal OLED light sheets but uses more efficient LEDs with a remote phosphor layer that is very close to the LED to deliver a luminous efficacy that exceeds 125 lumen/Watt and enable > 50% Lighting Application Efficiency (LAE) energy savings. During Budget Period 1 (BP1), all of the BP1 milestones were successfully completed: (M2.0.1) Design demonstrator details that will meet the final project goals, (M6.1.1) Show lighting output model can predict illuminance, spatial, spectral distribution for specific light-sheet designs and use case, (M3.2.1) Automated loading supports 200 chip arrays, and (M3.3.1) Finish first interconnect process run for 200 chip array. The BP1 Go/No-Go Decision Point (G/NG 1) 200 chip demonstrator sample was in the process of final assembly and test at the end of BP1 on December 31, 2023. The objective was successfully achieved on January 16, 2024, when a wired 200-chip sample underwent confirmation testing that demonstrated a 93.75% first pass electrical yield that successfully exceeded the 75% first-pass electrical yield BP1 G/NG requirement. In addition, all 93.75% of the sample devices lit up, further demonstrating the ability to assemble and transfer small LED chips without damaging their functionality.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expansion of the Direct Feed High-Level Waste Glass Composition in the High Al Range

Baseline glass compositions have been developed and demonstrated for successful immobilization of Hanford high-level waste (HLW) prepared through a pretreatment process. Recent enhanced waste glass formulations have shown promise to increase the waste loading of pretreated sludge compositions from a broader range of HLW feeds. This project proposes to increase the loading of minimally pretreated Hanford HLW in glass by expanding the existing database and glass property-composition models. Estimated direct-feed high level waste (DFHLW) compositions were generated by the Hanford Tank Operations Contractor and used by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to determine target glass compositions. Gaps in existing data were identified including one high-priority gap in the high Al compositional region. This report summarizes the data collected during the characterization of the DFHLW High Al Glass Matrix. These glasses were intentionally designed with high aluminum concentrations (15 to 30 wt%) and a high likelihood of nepheline formation, which is known to negatively affect glass durability. Some glasses were expected to either fail or approach property constraints to fill data gaps in poorly understood regions of the compositional space due to lack of data. Out of the 50 glasses tested, 14 glasses formed nepheline, while the model predicted nepheline formation in 20 glasses. All quenched glasses met the product consistency test durability constraint; however, 8 glasses failed this constraint after undergoing the canister centerline cooling treatment. Additionally, 17 glasses did not meet the viscosity constraints, 4 failed the EC constraints, and 2 exceeded the allowable T2% for spinel crystal formation. All glasses satisfied the SO 3 solubility limit. The resulting dataset provides valuable information to improve model accuracy and reduce prediction uncertainty. These insights will ultimately support the development of more robust glass formulation strategies, enabling higher waste loadings, reducing operational risks, and expanding the processing envelope.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to subhourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of these approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating the Allen and Walker correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons were performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The two models predict annual clipping loss more accurately than simple hourly power limit clipping, with the Allen method typically being slightly more accurate at typical ILR values and the Walker method often being slightly more accurate at high ILR values The models can improve accuracy over the status quo clipping approach up to 3 percentage points in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

accuracy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combined Creep and Fatigue Modeling

Simultaneous consideration of creep and fatigue is of paramount importance to accurately predict component life in many industrial applications. For example, growing penetration of renewable energy onto the grid is forcing many power plants to transition from base-load power generation to more complex operation modes, characterized by a combination of base-load generation and frequent start-up and shut-down cycles. The frequent start-stop of power plants is causing a significant toll in the component life due to fatigue. As such, creep alone is not adequate anymore to predict the component life. Most existing life prediction models consider creep or fatigue independently while neglect their interactions. In this presentation, we talk about some recent efforts at NETL to develop a unified modeling framework where both creep and fatigue can be considered. The creep-fatigue interaction mechanism is studied. High-throughput simulations are performed under various hold stress and hold time, and analytical expressions are fitted for the crack growth rates under creep and/or fatigue conditions demonstrating some applications of this newly developed modeling capability.

advanced alloy development↗
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)

While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.

Digital Twins↗
DOE OSTI2025

PowerModel-AI: A First On-the-Fly Machine-Learning Predictor for AC Power Flow Solutions

The real-time creation of machine-learning models via active or on-the-fly learning has attracted considerable interest across various scientific and engineering disciplines. These algorithms enable machines to build models autonomously while remaining operational. Through a series of query strategies, the machine can evaluate whether newly encountered data fall outside the scope of the existing training set. In this study, we introduce PowerModel-AI, an end-to-end machine learning software designed to accurately predict AC power flow solutions. We present detailed justifications for our model design choices and demonstrate that selecting the right input features effectively captures load flow decoupling inherent in power flow equations. Our approach incorporates on-the-fly learning, where power flow calculations are initiated only when the machine detects a need to improve the dataset in regions where the model’s suboptimal performance is based on specific criteria. Otherwise, the existing model is used for power flow predictions. This study includes analyses of five Texas A&M synthetic power grid cases, encompassing the 14-, 30-, 37-, 200-, and 500-bus systems. The training and test datasets were generated using PowerModels.jl, an open-source power flow solver/optimizer developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM, USA.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using intrahost single nucleotide variant data to predict SARS-CoV-2 detection cycle threshold values

Over the last four years, each successive wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has been caused by variants with mutations that improve the transmissibility of the virus. Despite this, we still lack tools for predicting clinically important features of the virus. In this study, we show that it is possible to predict the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from clinical detection assays using sequence data. Ct values often correspond with patient viral load and the epidemiological trajectory of the pandemic. Using a collection of 36,335 high quality genomes, we built models from SARS-CoV-2 intrahost single nucleotide variant (iSNV) data, computing XGBoost models from the frequencies of A, T, G, C, insertions, and deletions at each position relative to the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference genome. Our best model had an R 2 of 0.604 [0.593–0.616, 95% confidence interval] and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.247 [5.156–5.337], demonstrating modest predictive power. Overall, we show that the results are stable relative to an external holdout set of genomes selected from SRA and are robust to patient status and the detection instruments that were used. This study highlights the importance of developing modeling strategies that can be applied to publicly available genome sequence data for use in disease prevention and control.

COVID19↗
DOE OSTI2024

THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD CESIUM AND STRONTIUM CANISTERS DURING SIMULATED LOADING

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies within a canister and overpack for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to make pretest numerical predictions for the behavior of the heated canister during the simulated radiolytic decay heat testing, which simulates the dry storage system during loading operations. The simulated radiolytic decay heat test is planned for mid-2024 in a configuration that includes the heater assembly, overpack, and canister, but with the lids removed to allow loading cesium and strontium capsules into the canister. One of the goals of the test is to evaluate the thermal behavior of the canister and overpack assembly in the ambient air of the test facility, which will provide data critical to validating the thermal models and understanding how the HLC will perform as a system once deployed. To best approximate real-world conditions, the CFD model includes the full air volume of the mock-up truck bay the heated canister test will be performed in, enabling detailed investigation of how the heated canister affects airflow around it. Rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2028 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the simulated radiolytic decay heat test. A description of the heater assembly, canister, and overpack system is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD software STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was preformed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.

Carpenter-Graffy, Dina E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mapping the Microhardness of Al Matrix in U-7Mo/Al Dispersion Fuels at Medium and High Burn-up by in situ Nanoindentation

The mechanical degradation of the Al matrix in U-7Mo dispersion fuels was detected after irradiation in previous studies, but more details of the degradation mechanism are not clear yet to clarify the root cause. In this study, microhardness mapping in fresh and irradiated U-7Mo dispersion fuels coated with ZrN, with burn-up of 3.35 × 10 21 and 6.28 × 10 21 f/cm 3 , are measured to reveal the hardening of the Al matrix as a function of distance to fuel particles. Micro cubes were pulled by plasma focused ion beam scanning electron microscopy and tested by in situ nanoindenter with Berkovitch tip. Size effects are measured in medium and high burn-up samples. The higher burn-up specimen exhibits a more pronounced size effect when indent load is lower than 20 mN. Size effect correction models are also calculated by plots fitting, which predicts the true microhardness without size effect. Results shows that the hardness of the Al matrix near the ZrN coating has the highest value, then decreases moving away from the coating and become stable when the distance reaches ∼10 µm. The hardness starts increasing again getting closer to the next fuel particle, which makes the hardness distribution between two fuel particles to be “U” shape.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Power Distribution System Resilience with Fusion-GNN: A Dynamic Graph Representation Learning Approach

This paper explores the applications of Fusion Graph Neural Network (FuGNN) on power distribution systems. FuGNN effectively models dynamic networks with evolving topology and features. Applied to power system network reconfiguration, FuGNN demonstrates its feasibility in optimizing switch configurations to minimize unserved loads and operational costs during extreme events. Additionally, FuGNN supports various downstream tasks, such as node feature prediction, further enhancing its versatility and applicability in power system resilience.

Liu, Boming↗