Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Lunar Surface Thermal Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

759 records · Page 11

PowerModelsGAT-AI: Physics-Informed Graph Attention for Multi-System Power Flow With Continual Learning

Solving the alternating current power flow equations in real time is essential for secure grid operation, yet classical Newton–Raphson solvers can be slow under stressed conditions. Existing graph neural networks for power flow are typically trained on a single system and often degrade on different systems. We present PowerModelsGAT-AI, a physics-informed graph attention network that predicts bus voltages and generator injections. The model uses bus-type-aware masking to handle different bus types and balances multiple loss terms, including a power-mismatch penalty, using learned weights. We evaluate the model on 14 benchmark systems (4 to 6,470 buses) and train a unified model on 13 of these under contingency conditions with up to two branch outages, achieving an average normalized mean absolute error of 0.89% for voltage magnitudes and R 2 >0.99 for voltage angles. We also show continual learning: when adapting a base model to a new 1,354-bus system, standard fine-tuning causes severe forgetting with error increases exceeding 1000% on base systems, while our experience replay and elastic weight consolidation strategy keeps error increases below 2% and in some cases improves base-system performance. Interpretability analysis shows that learned attention weights correlate with physical branch parameters (susceptance: r=0.38 ; thermal limits: r=0.22 ), and feature importance analysis supports that the model captures established power flow relationships.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Kryptonate Hydrogen Detection System (Final Report)

A prototype model of a multipurpose instrument which demonstrates the applicability of the Kryptonate® technique for detecting hydrogen gas was developed. This report describes the construction of the instrument and presents a laboratory evaluation of its performance. Performance was excellent. The instrument was designed to detect hydrogen in air at concentrations of 0-3% by volume, and to detect hydrogen in nitrogen or other inert gas at concentrations of 0-10% by volume. Other detection levels (both higher and lower) could be set if required. Ultimate response times can be made of the order of 0.5 seconds. The instrument is an all solid state device operating from 120V 60 Hz power source. The instrument has been designed to enable modifications to be made with a minimum amount of difficulty.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND

Effect of Biomass Water Dynamics in Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensor Observations: A Long-Term Analysis of Maize–Soybean Rotation in Nebraska

Precise soil water content (SWC) measurement is crucial for effective water resource management. This study utilizes the Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensor (CRNS) for area-averaged SWC measurements, emphasizing the need to consider all hydrogen sources, including time-variable plant biomass and water content. Near Mead, Nebraska, three field sites (CSP1, CSP2, and CSP3) growing a maize–soybean rotation were monitored for 5 (CSP1 and CSP2) and 13 (CSP3) years. Data collection included destructive biomass water equivalent (BWE) biweekly sampling, epithermal neutron counts, atmospheric meteorological variables, and point-scale SWC from a sparse time domain reflectometry (TDR) network (four locations and five depths). In 2023, dense gravimetric SWC surveys were collected eight (CSP1 and CSP2) and nine (CSP3) times over the growing season (April to October). The N0 parameter exhibited a linear relationship with BWE, suggesting that a straightforward vegetation correction factor may be suitable (fb). Results from the 2023 gravimetric surveys and long-term TDR data indicated a neutron count rate reduction of about 1% for every 1 kg m−2 (or mm of water) increase in BWE. This reduction factor aligns with existing shorter-term row crop studies but nearly doubles the value previously reported for forests. This long-term study contributes insights into the vegetation correction factor for CRNS, helping resolve a long-standing issue within the CRNS community.

Chemistry

SAVY-4000 Finite-Element Drop Test Analysis

PFE Auxiliary Systems conducted drop testing on SAVY-4000 containers to evaluate structural response under 12-foot drop conditions. In support of that effort, a finite-element modeling capability was developed to simulate drop response across multiple container sizes and impact orientations. The purpose of this work was to provide a consistent analysis framework that could support interpretation of testing, compare response trends across multiple configurations, and generate quantities of interest for later comparison with experimental data. More broadly, the analysis and testing were intended to assess whether the containers continued to perform their primary function after a 12-foot drop, namely maintaining structural integrity and containment of the contents. The modeling approach combined an implicit preload analysis with an explicit drop simulation so that each drop event began from a mechanically realistic assembled condition, including compression of the silicone O-ring. Separate models were developed for 2-quart, 5-quart, 12-quart, and 10-gallon containers. The results were evaluated in terms of strain-gauge response, collar-lid gap behavior, and accumulated plastic strain. In addition, parametric studies were performed on the 2-quart container to assess sensitivity to O-ring stiffness, friction, canister thickness, geometry tolerance, and mesh density. The simulations showed that predicted drop responses depended strongly on both container size and drop orientation. Gap metrics identified cases in which the predicted collar-lid opening exceeded the nominal O-ring cross-section threshold, while plastic strain metrics identified localized regions of elevated permanent deformation. Parametric studies showed that the predicted response was especially sensitive to the assumed O-ring stiffness and contact friction, while the geometry tolerance study produced smaller changes in the cases examined. The main value of this work was that it established a repeatable modeling and simulation workflow to support drop-test implementation, evaluate effects of future configuration changes, and understand modeling assumptions that most influenced predicted response. At the current stage, the results were viewed as preliminary model predictions rather than validated predictions. The next step would be to compare drop-test data to the model so that predictive values of the workflow could be refined and used with greater confidence to assess whether the containers maintained structural integrity and containment of the contents after a 12-foot drop.

42 ENGINEERING

Advanced-Research-on-Integrated-Energy-Systems-Based Analysis to Support Resilient System Upgrades: Energy to Communities Energyshed In-Depth Partnership with Molokai, Hawaii

The Molokai, Hawaii, Energy to Communities (E2C) Energyshed project represents a collaborative effort between the National Laboratory of the Rockies, Shake Energy Collaborative, the Molokai Clean Energy Hui, Sustainable Molokai, and Ho'ahu Energy Cooperative Molokai to advance Molokai's Community Energy Resilience Action Plan (CERAP). Supported by Hawaiian Electric Company and the Hawaii State Energy Office, the initiative aims to develop a community-defined portfolio of renewable energy solutions that enhance energy resilience while aligning with the Hawaiian Electric Integrated Grid Plan (IGP) and Molokai's energy goals. Phase 1 focused on technical analyses and community engagement to co-design feasible energy scenarios. Challenges such as grid upgrades, storage sizing, and inverter ride-through standards were addressed to align technical and operational requirements with community preferences. The project equips Molokai with actionable data and insights to implement energy initiatives while ensuring resilient and culturally informed solutions. Future efforts aim to finalize project designs, secure interconnection agreements, and deploy energy projects that reflect community priorities and technical feasibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Modeling Input Parameters on Wind Turbine Loads in Deterministic Transient Load Cases

Aero-hydro-elastic-servo numerical models used to design and analyze wind turbines are based on thousands of variable input parameters that dictate the inflow, aerodynamic, structural, and control characteristics of the system as well as sea state, hydrodynamic, and mooring characteristics for fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines. Each of these parameters has some level of uncertainty, which can significantly impact the predicted loads. Understanding the uncertainty in the inputs is critical to understanding the uncertainty in the outputs. This work demonstrates a screening technique to identify which parameters ultimate loads are most sensitive to so that more focus can be given to quantifying the possible range of those parameters. This technique has been demonstrated previously for different turbine and load case types and is extended here for a floating offshore wind turbine in design load cases with transient events both in the inflow and operations. Each load case features a deterministic gust, including variations in wind speed, direction, and shear. Load cases are considered with an operating turbine as well as with prescribed fault, startup, and shutdown procedures. The study found that key input parameters with a large impact on loads include the length of the gust, the magnitude of direction change and speed in the gust, the initial wind speed, and the shape of the gust profile.

17 WIND ENERGY

A multi-region approach for the analysis of porous materials and gas-solid reactions using USAXS-SAXS-WAXS: application to CaO carbonation

The reaction rate of gas-solid non-catalytic reactions is typically investigated using reactant conversion data over time and ex-situ measurements of the porous solid reactant textural properties; these data enable the experimental estimation of the initial intrinsic reaction rate, whereas the evolution of the textural properties and the reaction rate over time are evaluated theoretically using reaction models. In this work, a different methodology is presented, based on: a) in-situ time-resolved USAXS-SAXS-WAXS measurements of the solid sample, and b) a multi-region modeling approach; this methodology allows for the estimation of the textural properties and the intrinsic reaction rate at any time during the reaction. Referring to a reaction in which a solid product is obtained from a solid reactant and a gaseous reactant, the porous particle is described as consisting of several distinct regions with different microstructural properties, and both a gas-solid reaction model and a SAXS model are derived and applied to the carbonation of porous CaO. The proposed reaction model highlights the role of the inaccessible reactant and accurately predicts the solid reactant conversion versus time profile. The SAXS model accurately predicts the measured linear trends of the Porod invariant and of the pre-factor of the power law scattering profile versus CaO mass fraction; in the absence of chemical reactions, the proposed equations extend classical SAXS theory to porous materials containing macropores and nonporous solid phases in addition to standard nanoscale inhomogeneous regions.

CO2 solid sorbents

High-Temperature SiC Cladding End Plug Irradiation Design and HFIR Readiness

This report documents the design of a High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) irradiation experiment intended to evaluate irradiation effects on the hermeticity of silicon carbide (SiC) end plug specimens under a radial fast neutron flux gradient at representative light-water reactor (LWR) temperatures of approximately 300 °C. The overarching goal of this work is to statistically evaluate SiC end plug hermeticity and mechanical properties following irradiation using the high-throughput irradiation capability discussed here. Each specimen consists of a short section of SiC fiber–reinforced SiC (SiC/SiC) tube with a single monolithic SiC end plug joined to one end. The experiment allows up to 66 specimens to be irradiated in six different stacks within a dry, sealed irradiation capsule derived from the previously developed high-temperature SiC/SiC cladding bowing experiment. The neutronics basis, thermal analysis, and HFIR readiness of the experiment are discussed in this report for two possible design cases. The first design case is based on existing approval documentation and components that are on hand and approved for use, so the experiment insertion would require only specimen receipt, specimen pre-irradiation characterization, experiment assembly, and final fabrication package approval. The second design case provides improved thermal robustness and the preferred end plug geometry but requires fabrication of a modified holder and revisions to the HFIR approval documentation, in addition to the other activities required for the first design case, before insertion.

Hott, Daniel [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)

Fast Growth of Ga2O3 on Highly Offcut (100)-Oriented Substrates

Beta-Ga2O3 has emerged as a leading candidate for next-generation power electronics, radio frequency (RF) switches, and extreme environment electronics due to a wide band gap (4.6 - 4.9 eV), high dopability (approximately 40 meV activation energy for an isolated silicon donor), and melt growth characteristics resulting in commercially available 4-inch substrates and commercial demonstrations of 6-inch substrates by multiple techniques. The (100) surface of Ga2O3 is highly desirable from a device and epitaxy standpoint - bulk growth of (100) material is more scalable than (010), the surface is nearly lattice-matched to p-type partner NiO, and Al2O3 incorporates at higher concentrations without phase separation. More importantly, the impact ionization coefficients along the [100] direction are low, leading to the highest possible critical fields. This is advantageous compared to the current state of the art, (001), due to reduced surface defects and increased possible breakdown voltage. However, the epitaxial growth rate on (100) surfaces is less than 10% of other faces due to weak bonding and favorable desorption, and on-axis (100) growth easily forms twin domains. Recent demonstrations have shown growth rate improvements from 0.4 nm/min to 1.5 nm/min by growing on (100) wafers that are offcut 6 degrees in the -c direction. These films show step-flow growth from (20-1) step-edges and high electron mobility due to suppressed twins. Despite these exciting results, offcuts greater than 6 degrees have not been explored due to the waste associated with grinding and polishing large offcuts. In this talk we will discuss the molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) growth and properties of Beta-Ga2O3 grown on (100) substrates offcut in the -c direction up to 13.4 degrees. These large offcuts are enabled by edge-fed film-defined growth (EFG) where the offcut is grown into the surface by pulling the crystal through the EFG die with the seed crystal rotated by the desired offcut angle. We will demonstrate that 13.4 degrees offcut substrates still exhibit a terraced (100) surface, and that a >10x increase (>5 nm/min) in growth rate is achieved. As previously reported on lower offcuts, we observe reversal of substrate twin domains around the (001) direction at the substrate-epilayer interface. We will discuss electrical properties including record-low (by MBE) unintentional doping densities of < 5E15 cm-3 and critical breakdown field in Schottky barrier diodes comparable with state-of-the-art (001) Ga2O3 without edge termination.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Flexible and Extensive Platinum Ion Gel Condensers for Programmable Catalysis

Catalytic condensers composed of ion gels separating a metal electrode from a platinum-on-carbon active layer were fabricated and characterized to achieve more powerful, high surface area dynamic heterogeneous catalyst surfaces. Ion gels comprised of poly(vinylidene difluoride)/1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl) imide were spin coated as a 3.8 μm film on a Au surface, after which carbon sputtering of a 1.8 nm carbon film and electron-beam evaporation of 2 nm Pt clusters created an active surface exposed to reactant gases. Electronic characterization indicated that most charge condensed within the Pt nanoclusters upon application of a potential bias, with the condenser device achieving a capacitance of ∼20 μF/cm 2 at applied frequencies of up to 120 Hz. The maximum charge of ∼10 14 |e – | cm –2 was condensed under stable device conditions at 200 °C on catalytic films with ∼10 15 sites cm –2 . Grazing incidence infrared spectroscopy measured carbon monoxide adsorption isobars, indicating a change in the CO* binding energy of ∼19 kJ mol –1 over an applied potential bias of only 1.25 V. Condensers were also fabricated on flexible, large area Kapton substrates allowing stacked or tubular form factors that facilitate high volumetric active site densities, ultimately enabling a fast and powerful catalytic condenser that can be fabricated for programmable catalysis applications.

Catalysis

Experimental investigation of a closed vapour box module for a divertor-like configuration in Magnum-PSI

Efficient management of extreme heat fluxes in the divertor region to extend the lifetime of the components remains a critical challenge for the realization of nuclear fusion-based power plants. Among the alternative concepts explored for the divertor region, the use of liquid metals, particularly lithium, is of interest due its ability to dissipate the incoming plasma heat flux through the vapour shielding effect (VS). In this work, we experimentally investigated a ‘closed’ configuration of a dedicated Vapour Box Module (VBM) in the linear plasma device Magnum-PSI. The goal of the experiments is to simulate the vapour box divertor environment conditions and assess its performance in terms of power mitigation and redistribution and lithium confinement. Initial testing without Li demonstrated the efficacy of a closed VBM structure in inducing detachment via neutral gas accumulation. Apertures which enabled non-condensing gas to be effectively pumped while ensuring lithium condensed on the inner surfaces were therefore added. With a lithium capillary porous structure target used, lithium is directly vaporized by the plasma, forming a dense lithium vapour cloud that interacts with the incoming plasma. This resulted in a significant reduction of the target temperature of at least 48%, together with a temperature locking effect, a phenomenon typically observed in the VS regime. Lithium vapour confinement within the VBM was strongly correlated with the wall temperature. Relatively cold walls promoted Li re-condensation and therefore improved Li confinement, although with the expected trade-off of increased hydrogenic retention on lithium-wetted surfaces. As the wall temperature increased, the confinement efficiency decreased, consistent with reduced Li re-condensation and thermally activated Li–H chemistry and remobilization at the walls. Diagnostic measurements through embedded thermocouples and calorimetry revealed that lithium vaporization and re-condensation processes also playedsignificant roles in plasma power dissipation. The results advance the case for a closed divertor chamber with direct lithium evaporation from the strike-points as a viable method to manage divertor heat fluxes in future fusion reactors.

Romano, Fabio [Dutch Institute for Fundamental Ene

Analysis of an irradiated uranium sample for source attribution without chemical separation using microplasma ionization and ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry

The use of element isotope ratios has great potential in not only determining the reactor type used to produce plutonium (Pu) but also in determining the burnup and the time since irradiation. While a powerful nuclear forensic technique, determining element isotope ratios is complicated by severe isobaric interferences when performed on typical inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometers. Such analyses require extensive chemical separations prior to analysis to alleviate the inter-elemental isobars. Ultrahigh mass resolution spectrometry provides a potential alternative, greatly reducing the complexity of sample preparation and turnaround times for these critical measurements. To demonstrate the power of the approach, a sample of irradiated, depleted uranium was analyzed with the liquid sampling—atmospheric pressure glow discharge ion source coupled to an Orbitrap mass spectrometer. The Orbitrap is augmented with an external data acquisition system, Spectroswiss’s FTMS-Booster X2T, allowing collection of extended ion transients, providing higher mass resolution. In using this approach, the 150 Sm/ 149 Sm and 152 Sm/ 149 Sm isotope ratios were found to be within 20% of predicted values without any chemical separations and without mass bias corrections. In addition, the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu isotope ratio was determined, free from the 238 UH + interferences common to the ICP-MS platforms, while at the same time allowing for the determination of U isotopic signatures. While these demonstrative results are from a single sample, the advantages of the microplasma/ultrahigh mass resolution approach to intra-element isotope ratio determinations are clear.

Fuel burnup

Wave ripples formed in ancient, ice-free lakes in Gale crater, Mars

Symmetrical wave ripples identified with NASA’s Curiosity rover in ancient lake deposits at Gale crater provide a key paleoclimate constraint for early Mars: At the time of ripple formation, climate conditions must have supported ice-free liquid water on the surface of Mars. These features are the most definitive examples of wave ripples on another planet. The ripples occur in two stratigraphic intervals within the orbitally defined Layered Sulfate Unit: a thin but laterally extensive unit at the base of the Amapari member of the Mirador formation, and a sandstone lens within the Contigo member of the Mirador formation. In both locations, the ripples have an average wavelength of ~4.5 centimeters. Internal laminae and ripple morphology show an architecture common in wave-influenced environments where wind-generated surface gravity waves mobilize bottom sediment in oscillatory flows. Their presence suggests formation in a shallow-water (<2 meters) setting that was open to the atmosphere, which requires atmospheric conditions that allow stable surface water.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Single particle – MC-ICP-MS for isotopic analysis of uranium particles

Single particle – multi-collector – inductively coupled plasma – mass spectrometry (SP-MC-ICP-MS) was employed to measure a suspension of 1 µm U3O8 particles (∼1.3 pg total U/particle) to determine their individual isotopic compositions of 234U/238U, 235U/238U, and 236U/238U. The effects of different detector combinations for 235U and 238U, including secondary electron multipliers (SEM) and Faraday detectors (1011 and 1013 Ω amplifiers), were explored for accuracy and precision optimization on the observed 235U/238U. The minor isotopic ratios (i.e., 234U/238U and 236U/238U) were analyzed such that the 234U and 236U were monitored on SEM detectors and the 238U was monitored on a Faraday (1011 Ω) detector. Various integration times (5, 10, 25, and 50 ms) were investigated in all detector configurations to gain a better understanding of their impact on sensitivity, accuracy, and precision. For 235U/238U ratios of 1 µm U3O8 particles, a dual Faraday detector measurement with 1011 Ω was the optimal choice; measurement of 1021 particles yielded an average 235U/238U ratio of 0.00170 (14), a −1.8% relative difference (% RD) from the reference value. The minor isotopic compositions were determined to be 0.0000070 (14) and 0.0000758 (48) for the 234U/238U and 236U/238U, respectively. These measurements correspond to <8% and <1% RD from their reference value for the 234U/238U and 236U/238U, respectively. SP-MC-ICP-MS was also able to provide insight into measurement sensitivity. In these individual particles, merely 15 and 165 atto-grams (ag) of 234U and 236U were present (calculated). Initial limits of detection for SP-MC-ICP-MS were determined to be ∼1.0 ag (when measured via SEM detectors). This valuable approach is applicable to areas including nuclear forensics, nuclear safeguards, and geochemical analysis, which require high-precision measurements of uranium within micron-sized particles.

Manard, Benjamin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000207400627)

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 2, April-June 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 97 The Nuclear Community and the Public: Cognitive and Cultural Influences on Thinking About Nuclear Risk, M. A. Meyer; 109 Twenty-Third Water Reactor Safety Information Meeting, D. A. Copinger; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 126 Analysis of a PWR LBLOCA Without SCRAM, Trevor N. Tyler, Rafael Macian-Juan and John H. Mahaffy; DESIGN FEATURES: 139 Vulnerability of Multiple-Barrier Systems, N. C. Lind; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 149 A Study of Wet Catalytic Oxidation of Radioactive Spent Ion Exchange Resin by Hydrogen Peroxide, Xingchao Jian, Tianbao Wu, and Guichun Yun; 157 A Comparison Study and Resolution of Differences Between Emergency Response and Safety Analysis Codes Used at the Savannah River Site, A. A. Simpkins; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 164 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 167 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 172 Proposed Rule Changes as of Dec. 31,1995; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 178 American Nuclear Society 1997 Annual Meeting; 178 American Nuclear Society Nuclear Criticality and Safety Division Topical Meeting; 176 The Authors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Three-dimensional dispersion in the type-II Dirac semimetals PtTe 2 and PdTe 2 revealed through circular dichroism in angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy

PtTe 2 and PdTe 2 are among the first transition metal dichalcogenides that were predicted to host type-II Dirac fermions, exotic particles prohibited in free space. These materials are layered and air stable, which makes them top candidates for technological applications that take advantage of their anisotropic magnetotransport properties. Here, in this work, we provide a detailed characterization of the electronic structure of PtTe 2 and PdTe 2 using angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) and density functional theory calculations, offering an alternative interpretation for one of the Dirac-like dispersions in these materials. Through the use of circularly polarized light, we report a different behavior of such dispersion in PdTe 2 compared to PtTe 2 , that we relate to a symmetry analysis of the dipole matrix element. Such analysis reveals a link between the observed circular dichroism and the different momentum-dependent terms in the dispersion of these two compounds, despite their close similarity in crystal structure. Additionally, our data show a clear difference in the circular dichroic signal for the type-II Dirac cones characteristic of these materials, compared to their topologically protected surface states. Our paper provides a useful reference for the ARPES characterization of other transition metal dichalcogenides with topological properties and illustrates the use of circular dichroism as a guide to identify the topological character and attributes of two otherwise equivalent band dispersions.

angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy

Oceanic fronts shape hemispheric contrasts in polar stratospheric extremes

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) exhibit striking inter-hemispheric asymmetries: SSWs are frequent in the Arctic but rare in the Antarctic, while PSCs are more persistent in the Antarctic. Although land–sea thermal contrast and orography (LSCO) have been traditionally invoked to explain these asymmetries, here we show using semi-idealized model experiments that even though LSCO strongly impacts the mean state of SSWs and PSCs, it alone cannot fully account for the observed differences. Using model experiments, we reveal that midlatitude oceanic sea surface temperature (SST) fronts represent a crucial supporting additional driver of the hemispheric stratospheric differences. Like LSCO, SST fronts enhance stratospheric convergence of resolved waves, strengthening the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and inducing high-latitude adiabatic warming. This warming significantly enhances Arctic SSW frequency and strongly suppresses PSC formation. Sub-grid-scale non–resolved wave forcing modulates the stratospheric resolved waves effect. The oceanic impact is dominated by North Pacific SST fronts. Our results highlight the indispensable role of SST fronts in shaping Arctic–Antarctic asymmetries in stratospheric dynamics and associated extremes.

Omrani, Nour-Eddine [Univ. of Bergen (Norway)] (OR

A Tutorial on Bayesian analysis of linear shock compression data

Gas gun and other shock compression experiments often produce shock wave velocity measurements that are linearly associated with particle velocity. Traditionally, this empirical relationship is quantified with a single Hugoniot curve that is estimated using least squares regression. However, for downstream modeling and simulation tasks, it is often more useful to have multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the data. We employ Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods as a framework for propagating measurement uncertainty through to model parameters and predictions. Specifically, this Tutorial shows how to sample multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the shock wave-particle velocity measurements in a two-step Bayesian approach. First, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution of the linear model parameters using Bayesian linear regression. Second, we propagate samples from the posterior distribution through the Rankine–Hugoniot equations to yield Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane. The procedure is demonstrated with publicly available data on argon, copper, and nickel, and compared against bootstrapping and linear regression. The Bayesian procedure is shown to be interpretable, computationally inexpensive, and less sensitive than an alternative bootstrapping approach to the removal of the point in the copper dataset that has the largest particle velocity. As a Tutorial on Bayesian methodology for the shock compression community, we provide several derivations and explanations that make this paper self-contained, and make all code and data available at github.com/llnl/BALSCD.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC