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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

The stability of hibonite, melilite and other aluminous phases in silicate melts: Implications for the origin of hibonite-bearing inclusions from carbonaceous chondrites

Phase fields in which hibonite and silicate melt coexist with spinel CaAl4O7, gehlenitic melilite, anorthite or corundum at 1 bar in the system CaO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-TiO2 were determined. The hibonites contain up to 1.7 wt% SiO2. For TiO2, the experimentally determined partition coefficients between hibonite and coexisting melt D(sub i)(sup Hib/L), vary from 0.8 to 2.1 and generally decrease with increasing TiO2 in the liquid. Based on Ti partitioning between hibonite and melt, bulk inclusion compositions and hibonite-saturated liquidus phase diagrams, the hibonite in hibonite-poor fluffy Type A inclusions from Allende and at least some hibonite from hibonite-rich inclusions is relict, although much of the hibonite from hibonite-glass spherules probably crystallized metasably from a melt. Bulk compositions for all of these CAIs are consistent with an origin as melite + hibonite + spinel + perovskite phase assembalges that were partially altered and in some cases partially or completely melted. The duration of the melting event was sufficient to remove any Na introduced by the alteration process but frequently insufficient to dissolve all of the original hibonite. Simple thermochemical models developed for meteoritic melilite and hibonite solid solutions were used to obtain equilibration temperatures of hibonite-bearing phase assemblages with vapor. Referenced to 10(exp -3) atm, hibonite + corundum + vapor equilibrated at approximately 1260 C and hibonite + spinel +/- melilite + vapor at 1215 +/- 10 C. If these temperatures reflect condensation in a cooling gas of solar composition, then hibonite +/- corundum condensed first, followed by spinel and then melilite. The position of perovskite within this sequence is uncertain, but it probably began to condense before spinel. This sequence of phase appearances and relative temperatures is generally consistent with observed textures but differs from expectations based on classical condensation calculations in that equilibration temperatures are generally lower than predicted and melilite initially condenses with or even after spinel. Simple thermochemical modes for the substitution of trace elements into the Ca site of meteoritic hibonites suggest that virtually all Eu is divalent in early condensate hibonites but that Eu(2+)/Eu(#+) decreases by a factor of 20 or more during the course of condensation primarily because the ratio is proportional to the partial pressure of Al, which decreases dramatically as aluminous phase condense. The relative sizes of Eu and Yb anomalies in meteoritic hibonites and inclusions may be partly due to this effect.

Beckett, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Incipient Melt Formation and Devitrification at the Wanapitei Impact Structure, Ontario, Canada

The Wanapitei impact structure is approximately 8 km in diameter and lies within Wanapitei Lake, approximately 34 km northeast of the city of Sudbury. Rocks related to the 37 Ma impact event are found only in Pleistocene glacial deposits south of the lake. Most of the target rocks are metasedimentary rocks of the Proterozoic Huronian Supergroup. An almost completely vitrified, inclusion-bearing sample investigated here represents either an impact melt or a strongly shock metamorphosed, pebbly wacke. In the second, preferred interpretation, a number of partially melted and devitrified clasts are enclosed in an equally highly shock metamorphosed arkosic wacke matrix (i.e., the sample is a shocked pebbly wacke), which records the onset of shock melting. This interpretation is based on the glass composition, mineral relicts in the glass, relict rock textures, and the similar degree of shock metamorphism and incipient melting of all sample components. Boulder matrix and clasts are largely vitrified and preserve various degrees of fluidization, vesiculation, and devitrification. Peak shock pressure of approximately 50-60 GPa and stress experienced by the sample were somewhat below those required for complete melting and development of a homogeneous melt. The rapid cooling and devitrification history of the analyzed sample is comparable to that reported recently from glasses in the suevite of the Ries impact structure in Germany and may indicate that the analyzed sample experienced an annealing temperature after deposition of somewhere between 650 C and 800 C.

Dressler, B. O.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Scaling Impact-Melt and Crater Dimensions: Implications for the Lunar Cratering Record

The consequences of impact on the solid bodies of the solar system are manifest and legion. Although the visible effects on planetary surfaces, such as the Moon's, are the most obvious testimony to the spatial and temporal importance of impacts, less dramatic chemical and petrographic characteristics of materials affected by shock abound. Both the morphologic and petrologic aspects of impact cratering are important in deciphering lunar history, and, ideally, each should complement the other. In practice, however, a gap has persisted in relating large-scale cratering processes to petrologic and geochemical data obtained from lunar samples. While this is due in no small part to the fact that no Apollo mission unambiguously sampled deposits of a large crater, it can also be attributed to the general state of our knowledge of cratering phenomena, particularly those accompanying large events. The most common shock-metamorphosed lunar samples are breccias, but a substantial number are impact-melt rocks. Indeed, numerous workers have called attention to the importance of impact-melt rocks spanning a wide range of ages in the lunar sample collection. Photogeologic studies also have demonstrated the widespread occurrence of impact-melt lithologies in and around lunar craters. Thus, it is clear that impact melting has been a fundamental process operating throughout lunar history, at scales ranging from pits formed on individual regolith grains to the largest impact basins. This contribution examines the potential relationship between impact melting on the Moon and the interior morphologies of large craters and peaking basins. It then examines some of the implications of impact melting at such large scales for lunar-sample provenance and evolution of the lunar crust.

Cintala , Mark J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Melting Layer Model for Passive/Active Microwave Remote Sensing Applications: Simulation of TRMM Observations - Part 2

The one-dimensional, steady-state melting layer model developed in Part I of this study is used to calculate both the microphysical and radiative properties of melting precipitation, based upon the computed concentrations of snow and graupel just above the freezing level at applicable horizontal gridpoints of 3-dimensional cloud resolving model simulations. The modified 3-dimensional distributions of precipitation properties serve as input to radiative transfer calculations of upwelling radiances and radar extinction/reflectivities at the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) frequencies, respectively. At the resolution of the cloud resolving model grids (approx. 1 km), upwelling radiances generally increase if mixed-phase precipitation is included in the model atmosphere. The magnitude of the increase depends upon the optical thickness of the cloud and precipitation, as well as the scattering characteristics of ice-phase precipitation aloft. Over the set of cloud resolving model simulations utilized in this study, maximum radiance increases of 43, 28, 18, and 10 K are simulated at 10.65, 19.35 GHz, 37.0, and 85.5 GHz, respectively. The impact of melting on TMI-measured radiances is determined not only by the physics of the melting particles but also by the horizontal extent of the melting precipitation, since the lower-frequency channels have footprints that extend over 10''s of kilometers. At TMI resolution, the maximum radiance increases are 16, 15, 12, and 9 K at the same frequencies. Simulated PR extinction and reflectivities in the melting layer can increase dramatically if mixed-phase precipitation is included, a result consistent with previous studies. Maximum increases of 0.46 (-2 dB) in extinction optical depth and 5 dBZ in reflectivity are simulated based upon the set of cloud resolving model simulations.

Olson, William S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Shergottite Impact Melt Glasses Contain Soil from Martian Uplands

Martian meteorite (shergottite) impact melt glasses that contain high concentrations of martian atmospheric noble gases and show significant variations in Sr-87/Sr-86 isotopic ratios are likely to contain Martian surface fines mixed with coarser regolith materials. The mixed soil constituents were molten due to shock at the time of meteoroid impact near the Martian surface and the molten glass got incorporated into the voids and cracks in some shergottite meteorites. Earlier, Rao et al. found large enrichments of sulfur (sulfate) during an electron-microprobe study of several impact melt glass veins and pods in EET79001,LithC thin sections. As sulfur is very abundant in Martian soil, these S excesses were attributed to the mixing of a soil component containing aqueously altered secondary minerals with the LithC precursor materials prior to impact melt generation. Recently, we studied additional impact melt glasses in two basaltic shergottites, Zagami and Shergotty using procedures similar to those described by Rao et al. Significant S enrichments in Zagami and Shergotty impact melt glass veins similar to the EET79001, LithC glasses were found. In addition, we noticed the depletion of the mafic component accompanied by the enrichment of felsic component in these impact melt glass veins relative to the bulk host rock in the shergottites. To explain these observations, we present a model based on comminution of basaltic rocks due to meteroid bombardment on martian regolith and mechanical fractionation leading to enrichment of felsics and depletion of mafics in the fine grained dust which is locally mobilized as a result of saltation and deflation due to the pervasive aeolian activity on Mars.

Rao, M. N.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Shergottite Impact Melt Glasses Contain Soil from Martian Uplands

Martian meteorite (shergottite) impact melt glasses that contain high concentrations of martian atmospheric noble gases and show significant variations in Sr-87/Sr-86 isotopic ratios are likely to contain Martian surface fines mixed with coarser regolith materials. The mixed soil constituents were molten due to shock at the time of meteoroid impact near the Martian surface and the molten glass got incorporated into the voids and cracks in some shergottite meteorites. Earlier, Rao et al. found large enrichments of sulfur (sulfate) during an electron-microprobe study of several impact melt glass veins and pods in EET79001,LithC thin sections. As sulfur is very abundant in Martian soil, these S excesses were attributed to the mixing of a soil component containing aqueously altered secondary minerals with the LithC precursor materials prior to impact melt generation. Recently, we studied additional impact melt glasses in two basaltic shergottites, Zagami and Shergotty using procedures similar to those described. Significant S enrichments in Zagami and Shergotty impact melt glass veins similar to the EET79001, LithC glasses were found. In addition, we noticed the depletion of the mafic component accompanied by the enrichment of felsic component in these impact melt glass veins relative to the bulk host rock in the shergottites. To explain these observations, we present a model based on comminution of basaltic rocks due to meteoroid bombardment on martian regolith and mechanical fractionation leading to enrichment of felsics and depletion of mafics in the fine grained dust which is locally mobilized as a result of saltation and deflation due to the pervasive aeolian activity on Mars.

Rao, M. N.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Heating and melting of small icy satellites by the decay of 26Al

We study the effect of radiogenic heating due to 26Al on the thermal evolution of small icy satellites. Our object is to find the extent of internal melting as a function of the satellite radius and of the initial 26Al abundance. The implicit assumption, based on observations of young stars, is that planet and satellite accretion occurred on a time scale of approximately 10(6) yr (comparable with the lifetime of 26Al). The icy satellites are modeled as spheres of initially amorphous ice, with chondritic abundances of 40K, 232Th, 235U, 238U, corresponding to an ice/dust mass ratio of 1. Evolutionary calculations are carried out, spanning 4.5 x 10(9) yr, for different combinations of the two free parameters. Heat transfer by subsolidus convection is neglected for these small satellites. Our main conclusion is that the initial 26Al abundance capable of melting icy bodies of satellite size to a significant extent is more than 10 times lower than that prevailing in the interstellar medium (or that inferred from the Ca-Al rich inclusions of the Allende meteorite, approximately 7 x 10(-7) by mass). We find, for example, that an initial 26Al mass fraction of approximately 4 x 10(-8) is sufficient for melting almost completely icy spheres with radii of 800 km, typical of the larger icy planetary satellites. We also find that for any given 26Al abundance, there is a narrow range of radii below which only marginal melting occurs and above which most of the ice melts (and refreezes later). Since extensive melting may have important consequences, such as differentiation, gas release, and volcanic activity, the effect of 26Al should be included in future studies of satellite interiors.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2004

Transient Torque Method: A Fast and Nonintrusive Technique to Simultaneously Determine Viscosity and Electrical Conductivity of Semiconducting and Metallic Melts

A transient torque method was developed to rapidly and simultaneously determine the viscosity and electrical conductivity of liquid metals and molten semiconductors. The experimental setup of the transient torque method is similar to that of the oscillation cup method. The melt sample is sealed inside a fused silica ampoule, and the ampoule is suspended by a long quartz fiber to form a torsional oscillation system. A rotating magnetic field is used to induce a rotating flow in the conductive melt, which causes the ampoule to rotate around its vertical axis. A sensitive angular detector is used to measure the deflection angle of the ampoule. Based on the transient behavior of the deflection angle as the rotating magnetic field is applied, the electrical conductivity and viscosity of the melt can be obtained simultaneously by numerically fitting the data to a set of governing equations. The transient torque viscometer was applied successfully to measure the viscosity and electrical conductivity of high purity mercury at 53.4 C. The results were in excellent agreement with published data. The method is nonintrusive; capable of rapid measurement of the viscosity of toxic, high vapor pressure melts at elevated temperatures. In addition, the transient torque viscometer can also be operated as an oscillation cup viscometer to measure just the viscosity of the melt or as a rotating magnetic field method to determine the electrical conductivity of a melt or a solid if desired.

Li, C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Analysis of Summer 2002 Melt Extent on the Greenland Ice Sheet using MODIS and SSM/I Data

Previous work has shown that the summer of 2002 had the greatest area of snow melt extent on the Greenland ice sheet ever recorded using passive-microwave data. In this paper, we compare the 0 deg. isotherm derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, with Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-derived melt, at the time of the maximum melt extent in 2002. To validate the MODIS derived land-surface temperatures (LSTs), we compared the MODIS LSTs with air temperatures from nine stations (using 11 different data points) and found that they agreed to within 2.3 +/- 2.09 C, with station temperatures consistently lower than the MODIS LSTs. According to the MODIS LST, the maximum surface melt extended to approx. 2300 m in southern Greenland; while the SSM/I measurements showed that the maximum melt extended to nearly 2700 m in southeastern Greenland. The MODIS and SSM/I data are complementary in providing detailed information about the progression of surface and near- surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Analysis of Summer 2002 Melt Extent on the Greenland Ice Sheet using MODIS and SSM/I Data

Previous work has shown that the summer of 2002 had the greatest area of snow melt extent on the Greenland ice sheet ever recorded using passive-microwave data. In this paper, we compare the 0 degree isotherm derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, with Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-derived melt, at the time of the maximum melt extent in 2002. To validate the MODIS-derived land-surface temperatures (LSTs), we compared the MODIS LSTs with air temperatures from nine stations (using 11 different data points) and found that they agreed to within 2.3 plus or minus 2.09 C, with station temperatures consistently lower than the MODIS LSTs. According to the MODIS LST, the maximum surface melt extended to approximately 2300 m in southern Greenland; while the SSM/I measurements showed that the maximum melt extended to nearly 2700 m in southeastern Greenland. The MODIS and SSM/I data are complementary in providing detailed information about the progression of surface and near-surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Viscosity Measurement for Tellurium Melt

The viscosity of high temperature Te melt was measured using a new technique in which a rotating magnetic field was applied to the melt sealed in a suspended ampoule, and the torque exerted by rotating melt flow on the ampoule wall was measured. Governing equations for the coupled melt flow and ampoule torsional oscillation were solved, and the viscosity was extracted from the experimental data by numerical fitting. The computational result showed good agreement with experimental data. The melt velocity transient initiated by the rotating magnetic field reached a stable condition quickly, allowing the viscosity and electrical conductivity of the melt to be determined in a short period.

Lin, Bochuan↗
NASA NTRS2010

Enhanced Surface Warming and Accelerated Snow Melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau Induced by Absorbing Aerosols

Numerical experiments with the NASA finite-volume general circulation model show that heating of the atmosphere by dust and black carbon can lead to widespread enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and accelerated snow melt in the western TP and Himalayas. During the boreal spring, a thick aerosol layer, composed mainly of dust transported from adjacent deserts and black carbon from local emissions, builds up over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, against the foothills of the Himalaya and the TP. The aerosol layer, which extends from the surface to high elevation (approx.5 km), heats the mid-troposphere by absorbing solar radiation. The heating produces an atmospheric dynamical feedback the so-called elevated-heat-pump (EHP) effect, which increases moisture, cloudiness, and deep convection over northern India, as well as enhancing the rate of snow melt in the Himalayas and TP. The accelerated melting of snow is mostly confined to the western TP, first slowly in early April and then rapidly from early to mid-May. The snow cover remains reduced from mid-May through early June. The accelerated snow melt is accompanied by similar phases of enhanced warming of the atmosphere-land system of the TP, with the atmospheric warming leading the surface warming by several days. Surface energy balance analysis shows that the short-wave and long-wave surface radiative fluxes strongly offset each other, and are largely regulated by the changes in cloudiness and moisture over the TP. The slow melting phase in April is initiated by an effective transfer of sensible heat from a warmer atmosphere to land. The rapid melting phase in May is due to an evaporation-snow-land feedback coupled to an increase in atmospheric moisture over the TP induced by the EHP effect.

Lau, William K.↗
NASA NTRS2005

High-Performance Polymers Having Low Melt Viscosities

High-performance polymers that have improved processing characteristics, and a method of making them, have been invented. One of the improved characteristics is low (relative to corresponding prior polymers) melt viscosities at given temperatures. This characteristic makes it possible to utilize such processes as resin-transfer molding and resin-film infusion and to perform autoclave processing at lower temperatures and/or pressures. Another improved characteristic is larger processing windows that is, longer times at low viscosities. Other improved characteristics include increased solubility of uncured polymer precursors that contain reactive groups, greater densities of cross-links in cured polymers, improved mechanical properties of the cured polymers, and greater resistance of the cured polymers to chemical attack. The invention is particularly applicable to poly(arylene ether)s [PAEs] and polyimides [PIs] that are useful as adhesives, matrices of composite materials, moldings, films, and coatings. PAEs and PIs synthesized according to the invention comprise mixtures of branched, linear, and star-shaped molecules. The monomers of these polymers can be capped with either reactive end groups to obtain thermosets or nonreactive end groups to obtain thermoplastics. The synthesis of a polymeric mixture according to the invention involves the use of a small amount of a trifunctional monomer. In the case of a PAE, the trifunctional monomer is a trihydroxy- containing compound for example, 1,3,5-trihydroxybenzene (THB). In the case of a PI, the trifunctional monomer is a triamine for example, triamino pyrimidine or melamine. In addition to the aforementioned trifunctional monomer, one uses the difunctional monomers of the conventional formulation of the polymer in question (see figure). In cases of nonreactive end caps, the polymeric mixtures of the invention have melt viscosities and melting temperatures lower than those of the corresponding linear polymers of equal molecular weights. The lower melting temperatures and melt viscosities provide larger processing windows. In cases of reactive end caps, the polymeric mixtures of the invention have lower melt viscosities before curing and the higher cross-link densities after curing (where branching in the uncured systems would become cross-links in the cured systems), relative to the corresponding linear polymers of equal molecular weights. The greater cross-link densities afford increased resistance to chemical attack and improved mechanical properties.

Jensen, Brian J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Variability of Surface Temperature and Melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet, 2000-2011

Enhanced melting along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data, have been documented for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Recently we developed a climate-quality data record of ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 1ST product -- http://modis-snow-ice.gsfc.nasa.gov. Using daily and mean monthly MODIS 1ST maps from the data record we show maximum extent of melt for the ice sheet and its six major drainage basins for a 12-year period extending from March of 2000 through December of 2011. The duration of the melt season on the ice sheet varies in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. The short time of the study period (approximately 12 years) precludes an evaluation of statistically-significant trends. However the dataset provides valuable information on natural variability of IST, and on the ability of the MODIS instrument to capture changes in IST and melt conditions indifferent drainage basins of the ice sheet.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Variability of Basal Melt Beneath the Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf, West Antarctica

Observations from satellite and airborne platforms are combined with model calculations to infer the nature and efficiency of basal melting of the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, West Antarctica, by ocean waters. Satellite imagery shows surface features that suggest ice-shelf-wide changes to the ocean s influence on the ice shelf as the grounding line retreated. Longitudinal profiles of ice surface and bottom elevations are analyzed to reveal a spatially dependent pattern of basal melt with an annual melt flux of 40.5 Gt/a. One profile captures a persistent set of surface waves that correlates with quasi-annual variations of atmospheric forcing of Amundsen Sea circulation patterns, establishing a direct connection between atmospheric variability and sub-ice-shelf melting. Ice surface troughs are hydrostatically compensated by ice-bottom voids up to 150m deep. Voids form dynamically at the grounding line, triggered by enhanced melting when warmer-than-average water arrives. Subsequent enlargement of the voids is thermally inefficient (4% or less) compared with an overall melting efficiency beneath the ice shelf of 22%. Residual warm water is believed to cause three persistent polynyas at the ice-shelf front seen in Landsat imagery. Landsat thermal imagery confirms the occurrence of warm water at the same locations.

Bindschadler, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2012

Surface Temperature and Melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet, 2000 - 2011

Enhanced melting along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data, have been documented for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Recently we developed a climate-quality data record of ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product -- http://modis-snow-ice.gsfc.nasa.gov.Using daily and mean-monthly MODIS IST maps from the data record we show maximum extent of melt for the ice sheet and its six major drainage basins for a 12-year period extending from March of 2000 through December of 2011. The duration of the melt season on the ice sheet varies in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. The short time of the study period (approx 12 years) precludes an evaluation of statistically-significant trends. However the dataset provides valuable information on natural variability of IST, and on the ability of the MODIS instrument to capture changes in IST and melt conditions in different drainage basins of the ice sheet.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Solvent free low-melt viscosity imide oligomers and thermosetting polymide composites

.[.This invention relates to the composition and a solvent-free process for preparing novel imide oligomers and polymers specifically formulated with effective amounts of a dianhydride such as 2,3,3',4-biphenyltetra carboxylic dianydride (a-BPDA), at least one aromatic diamine and an endcapped of 4-phenylethynylphthalic anhydride (PEPA) or nadic anhydride to produce imide oligomers that possess a low-melt viscosity of 1-60 poise at 260-280.degree. C. When the imide oligomer melt is cured at about 371.degree. C. in a press or autoclave under 100-500 psi, the melt resulted in a thermoset polyimide having a glass transition temperature (T.sub.g) equal to and above 310.degree. C. A novel feature of this process is that the monomers; namely the dianhydrides, diamines and the endcaps, are melt processable to form imide oligomers at temperatures ranging between 232-280.degree. C. (450-535.degree. F.) without any solvent. These low-melt imide oligomers can be easily processed by resin transfer molding (RTM), vacuum-assisted resin transfer molding (VARTM) or the resin infusion process with fiber preforms e.g. carbon, glass or quartz preforms to produce polyimide matrix composites with 288-343.degree. C. (550-650.degree. F.) high temperature performance capability..]. .Iadd.This invention relates to compositions and a solvent-free reaction process for preparing imide oligomers and polymers specifically derived from effective amounts of dianhydrides such as 2,3,3',4'-biphenyltetracarboxylic dianhydride (a-BPDA), at least one aromatic polyamine and an end-cap such as 4-phenylethynyphthalic anhydride (PEPA) or nadic anhydride to produce imide oligomers that possess a low-melt viscosity of 1-60 poise at 260.degree. C.-280.degree. C..Iaddend.

Chuang, Chun-Hua↗
NASA NTRS2015

Revisiting the Potential of Melt Pond Fraction as a Predictor for the Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Extent Minimum

The rapid change in Arctic sea ice in recent decades has led to a rising demand for seasonal sea ice prediction. A recent modeling study that employed a prognostic melt pond model in a stand-alone sea ice model found that September Arctic sea ice extent can be accurately predicted from the melt pond fraction in May. Here we show that satellite observations show no evidence of predictive skill in May. However, we find that a significantly strong relationship (high predictability) first emerges as the melt pond fraction is integrated from early May to late June, with a persistent strong relationship only occurring after late July. Our results highlight that late spring to mid summer melt pond information is required to improve the prediction skill of the seasonal sea ice minimum. Furthermore, satellite observations indicate a much higher percentage of melt pond formation in May than does the aforementioned model simulation, which points to the need to reconcile model simulations and observations, in order to better understand key mechanisms of melt pond formation and evolution and their influence on sea ice state.

sea ice↗