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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Techno-Economic Assessment of Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) of Natural Gas for Pure Hydrogen Production and Power Generation with Integrated CO2 Capture

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) is an advanced auto-thermal reforming technology that produces hydrogen or syngas from natural gas. It integrates inherent CO2 capture by utilizing a specialized oxygen carrier in a single fluidized bed reactor, eliminating the need for complex, energy-intensive post-combustion separation. GSR technology builds upon Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), an experimentally proven technology with strong potential for scaling up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al2O3, Fe2O3-CeO2/Al2O3, and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H₂) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H₂ is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H₂ production by ~30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H₂, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H₂, competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H2 indicate NG consumption drives ~75% of total global warming impacts (~2.3 kg CO2 eq/kg H2). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary techno-economic assessment of gas switching reforming (GSR) of natural gas for pure hydrogen production and power generation with integrated CO2 capture

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) with integrated CO2 capture, a technology based on Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), has been experimentally proven and shows potential for scale-up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al2O3, Fe2O3-CeO2/Al2O3, and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H2) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H2 is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H2 production by ∼ 30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H2, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H2, competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H2 indicate NG consumption drives ∼ 75% of total global warming impacts (∼2.3 kg CO2 eq/kg H2). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigation of the benefits of diabatic microreactors for process intensification of the water-gas shift reaction within the steam reforming process

Presently, the steam reforming process is the largest industrial source of hydrogen. Improving its efficiency can help to reduce associated carbon emissions and hydrogen production costs. Intensifying the water-gas shift reaction using microreactors with integrated cooling is one way of achieving this. In this study, a 2-D computational model of one of these microreactors is developed, validated with experimental data, and then used to demonstrate how microreactors can enhance the conversion of the water-gas shift reaction beyond what can be achieved using conventional packed bed reactors. These results are then generalized into a full system model of the steam reforming process to demonstrate how microreactors can reduce hydrogen production costs. The results suggest that microreactors can significantly reduce the required reactor volume and catalyst loading for the water-gas shift reaction and can similarly reduce the hydrogen production costs associated with the steam reforming process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Oxygenates production in a microfluidic dielectric barrier discharge device sustained in Ar/CH 4 /O 2

Reforming of methane (CH 4 ) is a process to produce syngas (CO/H 2 ) and other value-added chemicals including oxygenates such as methanol (CH 3 OH). Atmospheric pressure plasmas have the potential to be more energy efficient than traditional reforming methods as value-added chemicals can be synthesized directly in the plasma without requiring an additional step. In this paper, we discuss the results from a computational investigation of the formation of oxygenates by CH 4 oxidation in the presence of Ar, including CH 3 OH and CH 2 O, in a nanosecond pulsed dielectric barrier discharge. The plasma is formed in a microfluidic channel whose small dimensions are ideal for plasma formation at atmospheric pressure. The production and consumption mechanisms of dominant radicals and long-lived species are discussed in detail for the base case conditions of Ar/CH 4 /O 2 = 50/25/25. CH 3 OH is produced primarily by CH 3 O reacting with CH 3 O and CH 3 O 2 reacting with OH, while CH 2 O formation relies on reactions involving CH 3 O and CH 3 . The most abundant oxygenate formed is CO (produced by H abstraction from CHO). However, the greenhouse gas CO 2 is also formed as a by-product. The effects of gas mixture are examined to maximize the CH 3 OH and CH 2 O densities while decreasing the CO 2 density. Increasing the Ar percentage from 0% to 95% decreased the CH 3 OH and CH 2 O densities. At low Ar percentages, this is due to an increase in consumption of CH 3 OH and CH 2 O, while at high Ar percentages (>40% Ar), the production of CH 3 OH and CH 2 O is decreased. However, both CO and CO 2 reached peak densities at 70%–90% Ar. Changing the CH 4 /O 2 ratio while keeping 50% Ar in the discharge led to increased CH 3 OH and CH 2 O production, reaching peak densities at 35%–40% CH 4 . The CO and CO 2 densities decreased beyond 20% CH 4 , indicating that a CH 4 rich discharge is ideal for forming the desired oxygenates.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative assessment of new oxygen carrier materials for gas switching reforming of natural gas: Techno-economics assessment, life cycle analysis, and experimental insights

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO 2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) with integrated CO 2 capture, a technology based on Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), has been experimentally proven and shows potential for scale-up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al 2 O 3 , Fe 2 O 3 -CeO 2 /Al 2 O 3 , and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H 2 ) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H 2 is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H 2 production by ∼ 30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H 2 , the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H 2 , competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H 2 indicate NG consumption drives ∼ 75% of total global warming impacts (∼2.3 kg CO 2 eq/kg H 2 ). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H 2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing feed modulation for coupled methane and NO x conversion over Pd-Pt/Mn 0.5 Fe 2.5 O 4 /Al 2 O 3 monolith catalyst

Here the impacts of feed modulation (frequency, amplitude) and catalyst design (composition and architecture) parameters are reported for the conversion of methane and NO x over a dual-layer Pt+Pd/Al 2 O 3 + Mn 0.5 Fe 2.5 O 4 /Al 2 O 3 monolith. CH 4 and NO x conversion data show that the dual-layer catalyst outperforms single-layer samples having the same catalyst loadings, with and without spinel. Close proximity of the PGM and MFO functions in the mixed-layer catalyst lowers the CH 4 conversion at high temperature while separating the PGM and spinel layers with an intermediate Al 2 O 3 layer does not. Methane conversion enhancement is linked to its nonmonotonic dependence on O 2 . The performance gains are tied to a transient activity spike that occurs during the lean-to-rich feed transition when water is present in the feed. The transient spike is attributed to the removal of CO and H 2 products via reactions with stored O 2 in the spinel, eliminating inhibition of methane steam reforming.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of Cs Promoter on Ethanol Steam-Reforming Selectivity of Pt/m-ZrO 2 Catalysts at Low Temperature

The decarboxylation pathway in ethanol steam reforming ultimately favors higher selectivity to hydrogen over the decarbonylation mechanism. The addition of an optimized amount of Cs to Pt/m-ZrO 2 catalysts increases the basicity and promotes the decarboxylation route, converting ethanol to mainly H 2 , CO 2 , and CH 4 at low temperature with virtually no decarbonylation being detected. This offers the potential to feed the product stream into a conventional methane steam reformer for the production of hydrogen with higher selectivity. DRIFTS and the temperature-programmed reaction of ethanol steam reforming, as well as fixed bed catalyst testing, revealed that the addition of just 2.9% Cs was able to stave off decarbonylation almost completely by attenuating the metallic function. This occurs with a decrease in ethanol conversion of just 16% relative to the undoped catalyst. In comparison with our previous work with Na, this amount is—on an equivalent atomic basis—just 28% of the amount of Na that is required to achieve the same effect. Thus, Cs is a much more efficient promoter than Na in facilitating decarboxylation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing hydrogen production: A comprehensive review of wastewater reforming techniques, feedstocks, and opportunities

Wastewater is produced across nearly all human activities and requires treatment to safeguard human health and the natural environment. Treatment of wastewater often requires a large amount of thermal energy, resulting in wasted heat after the treatment process. Because hydrocarbon reforming needs both water and heat, the integration of wastewater treatment with hydrocarbon reforming, a process that produces synthesis gas rich in hydrogen, offers an excellent opportunity to utilize this waste heat and the impurities in wastewater to produce valuable hydrogen gas, to minimize waste from industrial processes, and to integrate water treatment with the hydrogen economy. Yet, no comprehensive literature review has been conducted to examine the integration of reforming and wastewater. To address this lack, we summarize the variety of catalytic reforming techniques available in the open literature and review the current literature on wastewater reforming with these techniques. Subsequently, we conduct a review of common types of wastewater contaminants and their possible effects on reforming catalyst performance and life. Lastly, three underexamined wastewater sources are identified, namely, oilfield wastewater, geothermal water, and mining and mineral processing wastewater, and their potential for future study as a reforming feedstock is examined.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solar Heat for Industrial Processes: Integration with Chemical Reactors

The integration of solar thermal systems with chemical reactors has been proposed as part of a larger effort to develop and deploy solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) technologies. A strong motivation for SHIP processes and technologies is the potential for high thermal efficiency coupled with low-cost thermal energy storage (TES) which can enable commercial deployment of such systems. While there are different ways to categorize SHIP technologies, one important such distinction is between directly irradiated systems and indirect off-sun process driven by a SHIP system. While directly irradiated systems can provide high thermal efficiencies and high fluxes, they usually require complex engineering solutions due to the need for redesigning the established processes and unit operations. In most cases, it is also more challenging to couple such a process to a TES system, losing some of the benefits of SHIP. On the other hand, using a SHIP system to drive an industrial process off-sun can allow better integration with existing process chains, easier TES capabilities, and potential for more applications fitting a specific SHIP technology. However, the integration of SHIP systems with the industrial processes is not fully explored in detail, especially in the case of high-temperature processes such as reforming, cracking, cement manufacturing, and iron/steelmaking. Many of these systems require heating fluxes of >50 kW/m^2, supplied via combustion of hydrocarbons in a fire box and benefitting from radiative heat transfer between the flue gases and the reaction zones. As such, using SHIP systems for such processes is more complex than providing the same thermal input in the form of a heat transfer medium (HTM) entering the reactor, kiln, or furnace. Moreover, in case convective heat transfer using SHIP is envisioned, for example using supercritical CO2 as the HTM from a particle receiver, the thermal integration might be more challenging than initially envisioned: lower heat transfer coefficients and limited approach temperature might require large flow rates, causing a mismatch between the process thermal requirements and the thermal capacity of the SHIP system. In addition, even if the heat exchange between SHIP and reactor is effective, there is still a cold leg HTM at the reaction temperature or slightly below it. Chemical plants usually include a set of heat exchangers, heat recovery steam generators, and even power generation units - in a tightly integrated design - to recover the flue gases which are eventually vented. With SHIP systems mostly operating on a closed HTM loop, bottoming the cold leg is crucial. In this talk, we will present different modeling results for a variety of syngas production reactions, using catalytic and chemical looping processes, and discuss some of the challenges and design considerations for off-sun chemical reactors using SHIP systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A General Route to Flame Aerosol Synthesis and In Situ Functionalization of Mesoporous Silica

Abstract Mesoporous silica is a versatile material for energy, environmental, and medical applications. Here, for the first time, we report a flame aerosol synthesis method for a class of mesoporous silica with hollow structure and specific surface area exceeding 1000 m 2 g −1 . We show its superior performance in water purification, as a drug carrier, and in thermal insulation. Moreover, we propose a general route to produce mesoporous nanoshell‐supported nanocatalysts by in situ decoration with active nanoclusters, including noble metal (Pt/SiO 2 ), transition metal (Ni/SiO 2 ), metal oxide (CrO 3 /SiO 2 ), and alumina support (Co/Al 2 O 3 ). As a prototypical application, we perform dry reforming of methane using Ni/SiO 2 , achieving constant 97 % CH 4 and CO 2 conversions for more than 200 hours, dramatically outperforming an MCM‐41 supported Ni catalyst. This work provides a scalable strategy to produce mesoporous nanoshells and proposes an in situ functionalization mechanism to design and produce flexible catalysts for many reactions.

Liu, Shuo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon-Assisted, Continuous Syngas Production in a Chemical Looping Scheme

In the current energy and environment scenario, it is imperative to develop energy efficient routes for chemical manufacturing that also pave the way for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. This work presents an efficient pathway for continuous syngas production via a chemical looping conversion of the two most potent greenhouse gases—CH 4 , and CO 2 . The well-known dry-reforming process of converting CH 4 , and CO 2 to syngas is energy-intensive and suffers from catalyst deactivation. The chemical looping approach, on the other hand, provides avenues for mitigating catalyst deactivation and enabling improved energy efficiency. The key to such process enhancements lies in the intricate structure–function relationships of the catalyst and its correlation to the process variables. We present the reduction and oxidation characteristics of 5 wt.% Ni/Ce 1-x Zr x O 2 -based catalysts (x = 0, 0.4, and 0.625). We demonstrate low temperature CH4 activation over Ni-promoted samples as opposed to pure Ce 1-x Zr x O 2 . Moreover, our results depict an optimum regeneration of these catalysts when oxidized by CO 2 , and H 2 O, which allows for chemical looping operation of steam reforming of methane as well. Process variables were tuned to optimize the CH 4 conversion (over 80%), and H 2 /CO ratio at 650 °C. The critical surface reactions—carbon accumulation and gasification, and thermocatalytic CO 2 splitting were investigated to elucidate the dynamic nature of the catalyst surface. In conclusion, the impact of this work lies in showcasing the opportunities to design chemical looping reactors for energy efficient syngas production from waste greenhouse gases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Structure sensitivity in adsorbate-induced adatom formation on FCC transition-metal surfaces

Recent surface science discoveries reveal that adsorbates may induce in situ sub-nanometer cluster formation on transition-metal surfaces. To elucidate the structure sensitivity behind this phenomenon, we performed density functional theory calculations to construct an adatom formation energy database for eight fcc metals and 26 adsorbates commonly involved in catalytic reactions. We show that the adatom formation on (100) surfaces is generally easier than that on (111) surfaces. Many adsorbate/metal pairs exist, mostly on Pd, Ni, Rh, Pt, and Ir, for which adsorbates might induce adatom formation under near-ambient conditions on the (100) facet, but not on (111), highlighting the role of more open facets in adatom formation on metals intrinsically harder than Ag, Au, and Cu. Furthermore, our study offers a new perspective towards understanding structure sensitivity in heterogeneous thermal- and electro-catalytic systems such as methane steam reforming, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, and ammonia decomposition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Relative Climate Impact of Carbon Utilization for Concrete, Chemical, and Mineral Production

Estimates show that 6.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) can be captured and utilized across three pathways, concrete, chemical, and minerals, by 2050. However, it is difficult to compare the climate benefit across these three carbon capture and utilization (CCU) pathways to determine the most effective use of captured CO2. The life cycle assessment methods to evaluate the climate benefit of CCU chemicals should additionally account for the change in material properties of concrete due to CO2 utilization. Furthermore, with most CO2 utilization technologies being in the early stages of research and development, the uncertainty and variability in process and inventory data present a significant challenge in evaluating the climate benefit. We present a stochastically determined climate return on investment (ROI) metric to rank and prioritize CO2 utilization across 20 concrete, chemical and mineral pathways based on the realized climate benefit. We show that two concrete pathways, which use CO2 during concrete mixing, and two chemical pathways, which produce formic acid through hydrogenation of CO2 and carbon monoxide through dry reforming of methane, generate the greatest climate ROI and are the only CCU pathways with a higher likelihood of generating a climate benefit than a climate burden.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Insights from Initial Engineering Designs of Point Source Capture at Industrial Facilities

Initial engineering design studies examining the application of state-of-the-art carbon capture technology at industrial plants contain generally overlooked real-world design considerations for near-term deployment of point source capture (PSC). The implementation of PSC across a wide range of industrial applications presents unique challenges associated with fluctuating CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations, flue gas composition, and utility and land availability. In this article, seven recent industrial retrofit PSC projects are reviewed to investigate the impact of site-specific factors on project design and cost. Across the seven projects, three capture technology classes and four industrial applications are considered, allowing insight into industry-specific opportunities for PSC technology synergy. Common challenges across projects and proposed design solutions are highlighted to propagate ideas and solutions to close the technology gaps and accelerate learning rates.

FEED Studies↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Low-Temperature Syngas Production via Surface Tailoring of Supported Intermetallic Nanocatalysts

An active and coke-resistant silica-encapsulated intermetallic Ni 3 Zn nanoparticle catalyst was developed for low-temperature (450 °C) dry reforming of methane (DRM). The catalyst exhibited a remarkable 4-fold increase in activity (4.5 s –1 ) with over 99% CO selectivity and 3 orders of magnitude less carbonaceous species and demonstrated remarkable stability (70 h) compared to that of a monometallic Ni catalyst. Here, the key is the combined effect of surface ensemble structure and electronic interaction modulation through the surface composition tailoring achieved by off-stoichiometric Ni and Zn loading in controlling surface chemistry for achieving different activities and H 2 /CO ratios. Characterized by ion spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and the neutron pair distribution function, it was revealed that paired Ni δ – –Zn δ+ active sites are crucial for DRM. Transient infrared spectroscopy and isotopic analysis uncovered the synergistic effect of Ni δ – –Zn δ+ sites in activating C–H bonds and dissociating CO 2 to prevent coke formation under low-temperature conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ligation of Single-Site Ruthenium within Perovskite Oxides for Efficient Conversion of Thermodynamically Stable Molecules

Ru cation ligation in SrTiO 3 perovskite and their migration to the surface through exsolution are investigated for the dry reforming of methane (DRM), a chemistry that requires activation of two thermodynamically stable molecules, CH 4 and CO 2 . Compared to a supported 1 wt % Ru/SrTiO 3 benchmark, doped and exsolved Ru-SrTiO 3 demonstrate ≥3× higher CH 4 turnover rates (873 K), with isolated, ligated Ru exhibiting higher reactivity. Reactor studies assert that CH 4 and CO 2 activation are both kinetically relevant for CH 4 turnover rates on exsolved Ru-SrTiO 3 , unlike for supported Ru systems, where H-abstraction from CH 4 is the sole kinetically relevant step. As such, exsolved and doped Ru architectures are responsive toward co-reactant activation strategies, with their consequent reaction networks showing marked departures from those established for supported Ru catalysts. In situ spectroscopy and kinetic analyses propose distinct sensitivity toward CO 2 on Ru-SrTiO 3 systems, where higher CH4 turnover rates result from O-assisted C─H bond activation pathways. These pathways occur on paired Ru-oxygen vacancy sites that are inherent to the perovskite structure and are not readily accessible on supported Ru catalysts. Here, CO 2 is activated on oxygen vacancies directly adjacent to Ru active sites, which facilitates CH 4 C─H bond activation through a surface methoxy intermediate. The high reactivity of Ru-SrTiO 3 systems enables stable CH 4 turnover rates at milder reaction temperatures (673 K), conditions under which the supported counterpart, Ru/SrTiO 3 , is inactive. Overall, this work demonstrates that ligation of catalytically active cations in perovskite oxides facilitates site engineering toward atom-efficient activation of thermodynamically stable feedstocks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Challenging thermodynamics: combining immiscible elements in a single-phase nano-ceramic

Abstract The Hume-Rothery rules governing solid-state miscibility limit the compositional space for new inorganic material discovery. Here, we report a non-equilibrium, one-step, and scalable flame synthesis method to overcome thermodynamic limits and incorporate immiscible elements into single phase ceramic nanoshells. Starting from prototype examples including (NiMg)O, (NiAl)O x , and (NiZr)O x , we then extend this method to a broad range of Ni-containing ceramic solid solutions, and finally to general binary combinations of elements. Furthermore, we report an “encapsulated exsolution” phenomenon observed upon reducing the metastable porous (Ni 0.07 Al 0.93 )O x to create ultra-stable Ni nanoparticles embedded within the walls of porous Al 2 O 3 nanoshells. This nanoconfined structure demonstrated high sintering resistance during 640 h of catalysis of CO 2 reforming of methane, maintaining constant 96% CH 4 and CO 2 conversion at 800 °C and dramatically outperforming conventional catalysts. Our findings could greatly expand opportunities to develop novel inorganic energy, structural, and functional materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Technological evolution of large-scale blue hydrogen production toward the U.S. Hydrogen Energy Earthshot

Hydrogen potentially has a crucial role in the U.S. transition to a net-zero emissions economy. Learning from large-scale hydrogen projects will boost technological evolution and innovation toward the U.S. Hydrogen Energy Earthshot. We apply experience curves to estimate the evolving costs of blue hydrogen production and to further examine the economic effect on technological evolution of the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits for carbon sequestration and clean hydrogen. Learning-by-doing alone can decrease the production cost of blue hydrogen. Without tax incentives, however, it is hard for blue hydrogen production to reach the cost target of $\$1$/kg H 2 . Here we show that the breakeven cumulative production capacity required for gas-based blue hydrogen to reach the $\$1$/kg H 2 target highly depends on tax credit, natural gas price, inflation rate, and learning rates. We make recommendations for hydrogen hub development and for accelerating technological progress toward the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot.

08 HYDROGEN↗