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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probability of Obstacle Collision for UAVs in Presence of Wind

For incorporation of unmanned aerial vehicles into the National Airspace, ensuring safety of the airspace including the vehicles, people, and property on the ground is of utmost importance. One of the safety-critical factors for unmanned aviation flights is the risk of deviating from a planned trajectory resulting in a variety of hazards, including potential loss of separation between vehicle and obstacles or unexpected battery energy consumption. Off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts can lead to unacceptable unexpected deviations from the flight trajectory. It is essential to accurately model such effects on the flight trajectory while computing safety thresholds such as minimum separation from surrounding obstacles, available battery resource to complete the mission or determining delay in the expected time of arrival of flights. In this paper, a tool is presented based on Gaussian Process Regression for wind representation over a pre-defined trajectory for fast, yet approximated, in-time evaluation of possible trajectory deviations caused by wind gusts. The deviation in the planned trajectory caused by wind is further simulated utilizing a 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) UAV trajectory simulator comprising of a rotorcraft lumped-mass model with LQRI controller. Both steady-state wind and wind gust effects are investigated. The probability of collision with obstacle is computed and demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in the presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions and varying UAV airspeed is further demonstrated on experimental flights in the presence of wind measured by ground based weather service stations. The proposed approach would eventually benefit timely mitigation of current and future safety-critical events in autonomous systems by enabling risk-informed decision making.

Portia Banerjee↗
NASA NTRS2009

Handbook for Designing MMOD Protection

Spacecraft are subject to micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impact damage which have the potential to degrade performance, shorten the mission, or result in catastrophic loss of the vehicle. Specific MMOD protection requirements are established by NASA for each spacecraft early in the program/project life, to ensure the spacecraft meets desired safety and mission success goals. Both the design and operations influences spacecraft survivability in the MMOD environment, and NASA considers both in meeting MMOD protection requirements. The purpose of this handbook is to provide spacecraft designers and operations personnel with knowledge gained by NASA in implementing effective MMOD protection for the International Space Station, Space Shuttle, and various science spacecraft. It has been drawn from a number of previous publications [10-14], as well as new work. This handbook documents design and operational methods to reduce MMOD risk. In addition, this handbook describes tools and equations needed to design proper MMOD protection. It is a living report, in that it will be updated and re-released periodically in future with additional information. Providing effective and efficient MMOD protection is essential for ensuring safe and successful operations of spacecraft and satellites. A variety of shields protect crew modules, external pressurized vessels and critical equipment from MMOD on the International Space Station (ISS). Certain Space Shuttle Orbiter vehicle systems are hardened from MMOD impact, and operational rules are established to reduce the risk from MMOD (i.e., flight attitudes are selected and late inspection of sensitive thermal protection surfaces are conducted to reduce MMOD impacts). Science spacecraft include specific provisions to meet MMOD protection requirements in their design (for example, Stardust & GLAST). Commercial satellites such as Iridium and Bigelow Aerospace Genesis spacecraft incorporate MMOD protection. The development of low-weight, effective MMOD protection has enabled these spacecraft missions to be performed successfully. This handbook describes these shielding techniques. For future exploration activities to the Moon and Mars, implementing high-performance MMOD shielding will be necessary to meet protection requirements with minimum mass penalty. A current area of technology development in MMOD shielding is the incorporation of sensors to detect and locate MMOD impact damage. Depending on the type of sensor the signals from the sensor can be processed to infer the location of the impact and the extent of damage. The objective of the sensors is to locate critical damage that would endanger the spacecraft or crew immediately or during reentry (such as an air leak from crew module or critical damage to thermal protection system of reentry vehicles). The information from the sensors can then be used with repair kits, patch kits, hatch closure or other appropriate remedial techniques to reduce MMOD risk.

Arnold, Jim↗
NASA NTRS1993

AXAF-I ghost ray study: On orbit case

The problem of baffles for control of singly reflected (and nonreflected) ghost rays is considered. The theory of baffle design for Wolter Type I grazing incidence optics is reviewed, and a set of sample baffle parameters is obtained subject to the assumptions of nominal mirror figures and perfect manufacture and alignment of baffles. It is found that baffles forward of the optics (in the thermal precollimator) and between the mirror elements (at the CAP) are sufficient to allow the simultaneous ghost image and vignetting requirements to be satisfied for HRMA shells P1H1, P3H3, and P4H4. However, these baffles are not sufficient for the innermost shell P6H6; at best the requirements are slightly violated and there is no margin for tolerances. The addition of a baffle interior to the P6 space at an axial station about one third of the way forward from the aft end of the paraboloid will allow the ghost ray and vignetting requirements to be met. The minimum ghost ray angles and the vignetting angles are sensitive functions of the baffle positions and radii; tolerances of considerably better than 1 mm will be required. The sensitivities are coupled and correlated; further investigations should be undertaken in order to obtain baffle parameters which, combined with likely achievable tolerances, will minimize the risk of the vignetting/ghost ray requirements not being met. The lightweight carbon-epoxy composite used for thermal baffles has insufficient X-ray opacity to be a suitable material for construction of the controlling X-ray baffles; further study is needed to determine an appropriate material and to investigate its thermal and mechanical implications.

Gaetz, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Strategic Approach to Medical Care for Exploration Missions

Exploration missions will present significant new challenges to crew health, including effects of variable gravity environments, limited communication with Earth-based personnel for diagnosis and consultation for medical events, limited resupply, and limited ability for crew return. Providing health care capabilities for exploration class missions will require system trades be performed to identify a minimum set of requirements and crosscutting capabilities which can be used in design of exploration medical systems. Current and future medical data, information, and knowledge must be cataloged and put in formats that facilitate querying and analysis. These data may then be used to inform the medical research and development program through analysis of risk trade studies between medical care capabilities and system constraints such as mass, power, volume, and training. These studies will be used to define a Medical Concept of Operations to facilitate stakeholder discussions on expected medical capability for exploration missions. Medical Capability as a quantifiable variable is proposed as a surrogate risk metric and explored for trade space analysis that can improve communication between the medical and engineering approaches to mission design. The resulting medical system approach selected will inform NASA mission architecture, vehicle, and subsystem design for the next generation of spacecraft.

Antonsen, E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Strategic Approach to Medical Care for Exploration Missions

Exploration missions will present significant new challenges to crew health, including effects of variable gravity environments, limited communication with Earth-based personnel for diagnosis and consultation for medical events, limited resupply, and limited ability for crew return. Providing health care capabilities for exploration class missions will require system trades be performed to identify a minimum set of requirements and crosscutting capabilities, which can be used in design of exploration medical systems. Medical data, information, and knowledge collected during current space missions must be catalogued and put in formats that facilitate querying and analysis. These data are used to inform the medical research and development program through analysis of risk trade studies between medical care capabilities and system constraints such as mass, power, volume, and training. Medical capability as a quantifiable variable is proposed as a surrogate risk metric and explored for trade space analysis that can improve communication between the medical and engineering approaches to mission design. The resulting medical system design approach selected will inform NASA mission architecture, vehicle, and subsystem design for the next generation of spacecraft.

Canga, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Green PCB Remediation from Sediment Systems (GPRSS) Project

An ongoing problem facing the global environment community including NASA centers is the removal and remediation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). PCBs were commonly used in a variety of materials including paints, caulking, and adhesives due to the advantageous physical and chemical properties that PCBs imparted to these various materials. Unfortunately, these properties have made the treatment of sites contaminated with these chemicals extremely difficult to deal with, due to their inherent chemical stability. The remediation of sediments contaminated with PCBs is especially difficult, primarily due to the risk of releasing the contaminant into the environment during the treatment process. Traditional treatment options involve the use of dredging and incineration of the contaminated soils/sediments, in which the chance of releasing the contaminants is greatly increased. The purpose of this project is to develop cleanup technology capable of remediating contaminated sediments in-situ, with minimum intrusion. This allows for the minimization of any potential contaminant release during the treatment process, providing a safer method for cleanup operations (as opposed to dredging/incineration) and still treating the basic problem of PCB contamination (as opposed to capping).

System↗
NASA NTRS2018

The CAESAR New Frontiers Comet Sample Return Mission

The Comet Astrobiology Exploration Sample Return (CAESAR) mission is one of two finalists selected by NASA for Phase A study in the New Frontiers program. CAESAR will acquire a minimum of 80 grams of material from the surface of comet 67P/Churuyumov-Gerasimenko and return it to Earth for laboratory analysis. CAESAR preserves much of the science of a cryogenic sample return by retaining volatiles in a dedicated reservoir securely separated from the solid sample. Comet 67P was selected based on its favorable orbital geometry and the risk reduction and scientific context provided by the ESA (European Space Agency)'s Rosetta mission. CAESAR's objectives are to understand the origins of the Solar System starting materials and how these components came together to form planets and give rise to life. We also seek to resolve the conflicting views of comet origins arising from the Stardust and Rosetta missions. While the greater than 1 micron solids returned by Stardust originated in the hot, inner solar nebula, measurements by Rosetta suggest 67P volatiles formed at cryogenic temperatures and remained unchanged for billions of years. This dichotomy provides the rationale for returning both solid and gaseous samples.

CAESAR New Frontiers↗
NASA NTRS1984

Evaluation of propellent tank insulation concepts for low-thrust chemical propulsion systems: Executive summary

Cryogenic propellant tank insulations or liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen low-thrust 2224N (500 lbf) propulsion systems (LTPS) were assessed. The insulation studied consisted of combinations of N2-purged foam and multilayer insulation (MLI) as well as He-purged MLI-only. Heat leak and payload performance predictions were made for three shuttle-launched LTPS designed for shuttle bay packaged payload densities of 56 kg cu/m (3.5 lbm/cu ft), 40 kg/cu m (2.5 lbm/cu ft) and 24 kg/cu m (1.5 lbm/cu ft). Foam/MLI insulations were found to increase LTPS payload delivery capability when compared with He-purged MLI-only. An additional benefit of foam/MLI was reduced operational complexity because orbiter cargo bay N2 purge gas could be used for MLI purging. Maximum payload mass benefit occurred when an enhanced convection, rather than natural convection, heat transfer was specified for the insulation purge enclosure. The enhanced convection environment allowed minimum insulation thickness to be used for the foam/MLI interface temperature selected to correspond to the moisture dew point in the N2 purge gas. Experimental verification of foam/MLI benefits was recommended. A conservative program cost estimate for testing a MLI-foam insulated tank was 2.1 million dollars. This cost could be reduced significantly without increasing program risk.

Kramer, T.↗
NASA NTRS1999

NASA Lewis Launch Collision Probability Model Developed and Analyzed

There are nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the earth. These objects encompass manned objects, active and decommissioned satellites, spent rocket bodies, and debris. They range from a few centimeters across to the size of the MIR space station. Anytime a new satellite is launched, the launch vehicle with its payload attached passes through an area of space in which these objects orbit. Although the population density of these objects is low, there always is a small but finite probability of collision between the launch vehicle and one or more of these space objects. Even though the probability of collision is very low, for some payloads even this small risk is unacceptable. To mitigate the small risk of collision associated with launching at an arbitrary time within the daily launch window, NASA performs a prelaunch mission assurance Collision Avoidance Analysis (or COLA). For the COLA of the Cassini spacecraft, the NASA Lewis Research Center conducted an in-house development and analysis of a model for launch collision probability. The model allows a minimum clearance criteria to be used with the COLA analysis to ensure an acceptably low probability of collision. If, for any given liftoff time, the nominal launch vehicle trajectory would pass a space object with less than the minimum required clearance, launch would not be attempted at that time. The model assumes that the nominal positions of the orbiting objects and of the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time, and therefore, that any tracked object that comes within close proximity of the launch vehicle can be identified. For any such pair, these nominal positions can be used to calculate a nominal miss distance. The actual miss distances may differ substantially from the nominal miss distance, due, in part, to the statistical uncertainty of the knowledge of the objects positions. The model further assumes that these position uncertainties can be described with position covariance matrices. With these, and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution for the probability of collision is obtained. This solution provides clear insights into how each of the independent parameters affects the probability of collision. It shows that for a given maximum probability of collision and prior knowledge of the objects position uncertainties and sizes, only knowledge of the nominal closest approach distance is required to make the launch/no launch decision. The model was completed and used for the mission assurance COLA analysis for the Cassini spacecraft, which was launched on a Titan IV/Centaur rocket on October 15, 1997. Although the model was specifically developed for the Cassini mission, it is clearly applicable for other launches as well. The effect of COLA closures on the launch window is shown. The bar represents the entire 140-min launch window on October 15, 1997; the blackened areas represent the loss of launch opportunities due to the potential for a collision with an orbiting object.

Bollenbacher, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2016

Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Mountainous Northeastern United States

The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly approximately 1/ 8 deg) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30"), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional level of downscaling to intermediately downscaled (1/ 8 deg) data using high-resolution topography and station observations. First, observed relationships between 2-m air temperature and elevation and between precipitation and elevation are derived. Then, these relationships are combined with spatial interpolation to enhance the resolution of intermediately downscaled GCM simulations. The resulting topographically downscaled dataset is analyzed for its ability to reproduce station observations. Topographic downscaling adds value to intermediately downscaled maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature at high-elevation stations, as well as moderately improves domain-averaged maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature. Topographic downscaling also improves mean precipitation but not daily probability distributions of precipitation. Overall, the utility of topographic downscaling is dependent on the initial bias of the intermediately downscaled product and the magnitude of the elevation adjustment. As the initial bias or elevation adjustment increases, more value is added to the topographically downscaled product.

climatology↗
NASA NTRS1992

Fluence-related risk coefficients using the Harderian gland data as an example

A new concept is introduced for assessing the risk of radiation-induced cancer to space travelers: a fluence-related risk coefficient F (called the risk cross section), which is the risk of a cancer per unit particle fluence for a given particle type. Fs are functions of the LET of the particles in the radiation field and, when integrated over fluence-LET spectra and summed, yield the risk of the endpoint of interest. As an example, tumor prevalence data in mice are used to estimate the probability of the induction of mouse Harderian-gland tumor per year on an extramagnetospheric mission inside an idealized shielding configuration of a spherical 1 g/sq cm hick aluminum shell. Results indicate a yearly tumor prevalence of 0.06 at solar minimum conditions, with 60 percent of this arising from charge components with Z between 10 and 28, and two-thirds of the contribution arising from LET components between 10 and 200 keV/micron.

Curtis, S. B.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Bandwidth-Efficient Communication through 225 MHz Ka-band Relay Satellite Channel

The communications and navigation space infrastructure of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) consists of a constellation of relay satellites (called Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS)) and a global set of ground stations to receive and deliver data to researchers around the world from mission spacecraft throughout the solar system. Planning is underway to enhance and transform the infrastructure over the coming decade. Key to the upgrade will be the simultaneous and efficient use of relay transponders to minimize cost and operations while supporting science and exploration spacecraft. Efficient use of transponders necessitates bandwidth efficient communications to best use and maximize data throughput within the allocated spectrum. Experiments conducted with NASA's Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) Testbed on the International Space Station provides a unique opportunity to evaluate advanced communication techniques, such as bandwidth-efficient modulations, in an operational flight system. Demonstrations of these new techniques in realistic flight conditions provides critical experience and reduces the risk of using these techniques in future missions. Efficient use of spectrum is enabled by using high-order modulations coupled with efficient forward error correction codes. This paper presents a high-rate, bandwidth-efficient waveform operating over the 225 MHz Ka-band service of the TDRS System (TDRSS). The testing explores the application of Gaussian Minimum Shift Keying (GMSK), 2/4/8-phase shift keying (PSK) and 16/32- amplitude PSK (APSK) providing over three bits-per-second-per-Hertz (3 b/s/Hz) modulation combined with various LDPC encoding rates to maximize through- put. With a symbol rate of 200 M-band, coded data rates of 1000 Mbps were tested in the laboratory and up to 800 Mbps over the TDRS 225 MHz channel. This paper will present on the high-rate waveform design, channel characteristics, performance results, compensation techniques for filtering and equalization, and architecture considerations going forward for efficient use of NASA's infrastructure.

transmitters receivers↗
NASA NTRS2016

Bandwidth-Efficient Communication through 225 MHz Ka-band Relay Satellite Channel

The communications and navigation space infrastructure of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) consists of a constellation of relay satellites (called Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS)) and a global set of ground stations to receive and deliver data to researchers around the world from mission spacecraft throughout the solar system. Planning is underway to enhance and transform the infrastructure over the coming decade. Key to the upgrade will be the simultaneous and efficient use of relay transponders to minimize cost and operations while supporting science and exploration spacecraft. Efficient use of transponders necessitates bandwidth efficient communications to best use and maximize data throughput within the allocated spectrum. Experiments conducted with NASA's Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) Testbed on the International Space Station provides a unique opportunity to evaluate advanced communication techniques, such as bandwidth-efficient modulations, in an operational flight system. Demonstrations of these new techniques in realistic flight conditions provides critical experience and reduces the risk of using these techniques in future missions. Efficient use of spectrum is enabled by using high-order modulations coupled with efficient forward error correction codes. This paper presents a high-rate, bandwidth-efficient waveform operating over the 225 MHz Ka-band service of the TDRS System (TDRSS). The testing explores the application of Gaussian Minimum Shift Keying (GMSK), 248-phase shift keying (PSK) and 1632- amplitude PSK (APSK) providing over three bits-per-second-per-Hertz (3 bsHz) modulation combined with various LDPC encoding rates to maximize throughput. With a symbol rate of 200 Mbaud, coded data rates of 1000 Mbps were tested in the laboratory and up to 800 Mbps over the TDRS 225 MHz channel. This paper will present on the high-rate waveform design, channel characteristics, performance results, compensation techniques for filtering and equalization, and architecture considerations going forward for efficient use of NASA's infrastructure.

space communications↗
NASA NTRS1984

Evaluation of propellant tank insulation concepts for low-thrust chemical propulsion systems

An analytical evaluation of cryogenic propellant tank insulations for liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen low-thrust 2224N (500 lbf) propulsion systems (LTPS) was conducted. The insulation studied consisted of combinations of N2-purged foam and multilayer insulation (MLI) as well as He-purged MLI-only. Heat leak and payload performance predictions were made for three Shuttle-launched LTPS designed for Shuttle bay packaged payload densities of 56 kg/cu m, 40 kg/cu m and 24 kg/cu m. Foam/MLI insulations were found to increase LTPS payload delivery capability when compared with He-purged MLI-only. An additional benefit of foam/MLI was reduced operational complexity because Orbiter cargo bay N2 purge gas could be used for MLI purging. Maximum payload mass benefit occurred when an enhanced convection, rather than natural convection, heat transfer was specified for the insulation purge enclosure. The enhanced convection environment allowed minimum insulation thickness to be used for the foam/MLI interface temperature selected to correspond to the moisture dew point in the N2 purge gas. Experimental verification of foam/MLI benefits was recommended. A conservative program cost estimate for testing a MLI-foam insulated tank was 2.1 million dollars. It was noted this cost could be reduced significantly without increasing program risk.

Kramer, T.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Aquarius Instrument Science Calibration During the Risk Reduction Phase

This final report presents the results of work performed under NASA Grant NAG512726 during the period 15 January 2003 through 30 June 2004. An analysis was performed of a possible vicarious calibration method for use by Aquarius to monitor and stabilize the absolute and relative calibration of its microwave radiometer. Stationary statistical properties of the brightness temperature (T(sub B)) measured by a low Earth orbiting radiometer operating at 1.4135 GHz are considered as a means of validating its absolute calibration. The global minimum, maximum, and average T(sub B) are considered, together with a vicarious cold reference method that detects the presence of a sharp lower bound on naturally occurring values for T(sub B). Of particular interest is the reliability with which these statistics can be extracted from a realistic distribution of T(sub B) measurements that would be observed by a typical sensor. Simulations of measurements are performed that include the effects of instrument noise and variable environmental factors such as the global water vapor and ocean surface temperature, salinity and wind distributions. Global minima can vary widely due to instrument noise and are not a reliable calibration reference. Global maxima are strongly influenced by several environmental factors as well as instrument noise and are even less stationary. Global averages are largely insensitive to instrument noise and, in most cases, to environmental conditions as well. The global average T(sub B) varies at only the 0.1 K RMS level except in cases of anomalously high winds, when it can increase considerably more. The vicarious cold reference is similarly insensitive to instrument effects and most environmental factors. It is not significantly affected by high wind conditions. The stability of the vicarious reference is, however, found to be somewhat sensitive (at the several tenths of Kelvins level) to variations in the background cold space brightness, T(sub c). The global average is much less sensitive to this parameter and so using two approaches together can be mutually beneficial.

Ruf, Christopher S.↗
NASA NTRS1972

V/STOL tilt rotor aircraft study. Volume 2: Preliminary design of research aircraft

A preliminary design study was conducted to establish a minimum sized, low cost V/STOL tilt-rotor research aircraft with the capability of performing proof-of-concept flight research investigations applicable to a wide range of useful military and commercial configurations. The analysis and design approach was based on state-of-the-art methods and maximum use of off-the-shelf hardware and systems to reduce development risk, procurement cost and schedules impact. The rotors to be used are of 26 foot diameter and are the same as currently under construction and test as part of NASA Tilt-Rotor Contract NAS2-6505. The aircraft has a design gross weight of 12,000 lbs. The proposed engines to be used are Lycoming T53-L-13B rated at 1550 shaft horsepower which are fully qualified. A flight test investigation is recommended which will determine the capabilities and limitations of the research aircraft.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1992

Fully energy-dependent HZETRN (a galactic cosmic-ray transport code)

For extended manned space missions, the radiation shielding design requires efficient and accurate cosmic-ray transport codes that can handle the physics processes in detail. The Langley Research Center galactic cosmic-ray transport code (HZETRN) is currently under development for such design use. The cross sections for the production of secondary nucleons in the existing HZETRN code are energy dependent only for nucleon collisions. The approximation of energy-independent, heavy-ion fragmentation cross section is now removed by implementing a mathematically simplified energy-dependent stepping formalism for heavy ions. The cross section at each computational grid is obtained by linear interpolation from a few tabulated data to minimize computing time. Test runs were made for galactic cosmic-ray transport through a liquid hydrogen shield and a water shield at solar minimum. The results show no appreciable change in total fluxes or computing time compared with energy-independent calculations. Differences in high LET (linear energy transfer) spectra are noted, however, because of the large variation in cross sections at the low-energy region. The high LET components are significantly higher in the new code and have important implications on biological risk estimates for heavy-ion exposure.

Shinn, Judy L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Solar Energetic Particle Variations

In the largest solar energetic-particle (SEP) events, acceleration occurs at shock waves driven out from the Sun by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In fact, the highest proton intensities directly measured near Earth at energies up to approximately 1 GeV occur at the time of passage of shocks, which arrive about a day after the CMEs leave the Sun. CME-driven shocks expanding across magnetic fields can fill over half of the heliosphere with SEPs. Proton-generated Alfven waves trap particles near the shock for efficient acceleration but also throttle the intensities at Earth to the streaming limit early in the events. At high energies, particles begin to leak from the shock and the spectrum rolls downward to form an energy-spectral 'knee' that can vary in energy from approximately 1 MeV to approximately 1 GeV in different events. All of these factors affect the radiation dose as a function of depth and latitude in the Earth's atmosphere and the risk to astronauts and equipment in space. SEP ionization of the polar atmosphere produces nitrates that precipitate to become trapped in the polar ice. Observations of nitrate deposits in ice cores reveal individual large SEP events and extend back approximately 400 years. Unlike sunspots, SEP events follow the approximately 80-100-year Gleissberg cycle rather faithfully and are now at a minimum in that cycle. The largest SEP event in the last 400 years appears to be related to the flare observed by Carrington in 1859, but the probability of SEP events with such large fluences falls off sharply because of the streaming limit.

Reames, D. V.↗