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At least 199 records · Page 11

The Role of Mesoscale Variability on Plankton Dynamics in the North Atlantic

The intensive field observational phase of JGOFS in the North Atlantic Ocean has shown the importance of oceanic mesoscale variability on biogeochemical cycles and on the strength of the ocean biological pump. Mesoscale physical dynamics govern the major time/space scales of bulk biological variability (biomass, production, and export). Mesoscale eddies seem to have a strong impact on the ecosystem structure and functioning, but observational evidence is rather limited. For the signature of the mesoscale features to exist in the ecosystem, the comparison of temporal scales of formation and evolution of mesoscale features and reaction of the ecosystem is a key factor. Biological patterns are driven by active changes in biological source and sink terms rather than simply by passive turbulent mixing. A first modelling assessment of the regional balances between horizontal and vertical eddy-induced nutrient supplies in the euphotic zone shows that the horizontal transport predominates over the vertical route in the subtropical gyre, whereas the reverse holds true for the other biogeochemical provinces of the North Atlantic. Presently, despite some difference in numbers, the net impact of modelled eddies yields an enhancement of the biological productivity in most provinces of the North Atlantic Ocean. Key issues remaining include variation on the mesoscale of subsurface particle and dissolved organic matter remineralization, improved knowledge of the ecological response to patterns of variability, synopticity in mesoscale surveys along with refining measures of biogeochemical time/space variability. Eventual success of assimilation of in situ and satellite data, still in its infancy in coupled physical/biogeochemical models, will be crucial to achieve JGOFS synthesis in answering which data are most informative, standing stocks or rates, and which ones are relevant. Depending on which end of the spectrum quantification of the effect of mesoscale features on production and community structure is required, complementary strategies are offered. Either one may choose to increase resolution of models up to the very fine mesoscale features scale (a few kms) for the high end, or to include a parametric representation of eddies for the low end.

Garcon, Veronique C.↗

The Role of Mesoscale Variability on Plankton Dynamics in the North Atlantic

The intensive field observational phase of JGOFS in the North Atlantic Ocean has shown the importance of oceanic mesoscale variability on biogeochemical cycles and on the strength of the ocean biological pump. Mesoscale physical dynamics govern the major time/space scales of bulk biological variability (biomass, production and export). Mesoscale eddies seem to have a strong impact on the ecosystem structure and functioning, but observational evidence is rather limited. For the signature of the mesoscale features to exist in the ecosystem, the comparison of temporal scales of formation and evolution of mesoscale features and reaction of the ecosystem is a key factor. Biological patterns are driven by active changes in biological source and sink terms rather than simply by passive turbulent mixing. A first modelling assessment of the regional balances between horizontal and vertical eddy-induced nutrient supplies in the euphotic zone shows that the horizontal transport predominates over the vertical route in the subtropical gyre, whereas the reverse holds true for the other biogeochemical provinces of the North Atlantic. Presently. despite some difference in numbers, the net impact of modelled eddies yields an enhancement of the biological productivity in most provinces of the North Atlantic Ocean. Key issues remaining include variation on the mesoscale of subsurface particle and dissolved organic matter remineralization, improved knowledge of the ecological response to patterns of variability, synopticity in mesoscale surveys along with refining measures of biogeochemical time/space variability. Eventual success of assimilation of in situ and satellite data, still in its infancy in coupled physical/biogeochemical models, will be crucial to achieve JGOFS synthesis in answering which data are most informative, standing stocks or rates, and which ones are relevant. Depending on which end of the spectrum quantification of the effect of mesoscale features on production and community structure is required, complementary strategies are offered. Either one may choose to increase resolution of models up to the very fine mesoscale features scale (a few kms) for the high end, or to include a parametric representation of eddies for the low end.

Garcon, Veronique, C.↗

MAVEN - Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN Mission

NASA's MAVEN mission (to be launched in late 2013) is the first mission to Mars devoted to sampling all of the upper atmosphere neutral and plasma environments, including the well-mixed atmosphere, the exosphere, ionosphere, outer magnetosphere and near-Mars solar wind. It will fill in some measurement gaps remaining from the successful Mars Global Surveyor and the on-going Mars Express missions. The primary science objectives of MAVEN are: 1. Provide a comprehensive picture of the present state of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere of Mars; 2. Understand the processes controlling the present state; and 3. Determine how loss of volatiles to outer space in the present epoch varies with changing solar condition - EUY, solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements will provide the varying solar energy inputs into the system. Knowing how these processes respond to the Sun's energy inputs in the current epoch will provide a framework for projecting atmospheric processes back in time to profile MARS' atmospheric evolution and to explore "where the water went", A description will be given of the science objectives, the instruments, and the current status of the project, emphasizing the value of having collaborations between the MAVEN project and the Mars upper atmosphere science community.

Grebowsky, Joseph M.↗

Reforestation and Crop Land Conversion Impacts on Future Regional Air Quality in the Southeastern U.S.

Land in the southeastern U.S. is expected to change, e.g., given the potential demand to develop forest-to-fuel technologies or, conversely, cropification of current forests to increase food production. Possible future PM(sub 2.5) and O3 air quality for two land use/land cover change (LULCC) scenarios, reforestation and cropland conversion, are compared to a reference case scenario for the year 2050 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. Changes in air quality driven by changes in climate, deposition and emissions relating to the LULCC are investigated. Reforestation in the Southeast tends to decrease the ambient O3mixing ratio while slightly increasing summertime PM(sub 2.5) in the Southeastern U.S. Results of a climate and deposition (CD) sensitivity simulation are provided for the two alternative LULCC scenarios to isolate the impact of changing climate and deposition on PM(sub 2.5) and O3 air quality. The sensitivity results indicate that deposition and emissions changes associated with reforestation impact O3 and PM(sub 2.5concentrations as much as, and in most cases more than, changes in meteorology. Conversion of forest to cropland in the Southeast, on the other hand, tends to increase O3and increase PM(sub 2.5) year-round. Cropland conversion leads to increased NOX emissions and increases in the 4th highest maximum daily 8-h O3(MDA8) of the year by up to 10 ppb despite the tendency for increased deposition and decreased temperature to reduce the MDA8 mixing ratio. The results of this study show that O3and aerosol concentrations are sensitive to reforestation and cropland conversion in the Southeast and these land use changes should be considered in air quality management plans. Further, they show the sensitivity of such calculations to land cover properties.

deposition↗

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Development of a 12-Thrust Chamber Kerosene /Oxygen Primary Rocket Sub-System for an Early (1964) Air-Augmented Rocket Ground-Test System

Airbreathing/Rocket combined-cycle, and specifically rocket-based combined- cycle (RBCC), propulsion systems, typically employ an internal engine flow-path installed primary rocket subsystem. To achieve acceptably short mixing lengths in effecting the "air augmentation" process, a large rocket-exhaust/air interfacial mixing surface is needed. This leads, in some engine design concepts, to a "cluster" of small rocket units, suitably arrayed in the flowpath. To support an early (1964) subscale ground-test of a specific RBCC concept, such a 12-rocket cluster was developed by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The small primary rockets used in the cluster assembly were modified versions of an existing small kerosene/oxygen water-cooled rocket engine unit routinely tested at MSFC. Following individual thrust-chamber tests and overall subsystem qualification testing, the cluster assembly was installed at the U. S. Air Force's Arnold Engineering Development Center (AEDC) for RBCC systems testing. (The results of the special air-augmented rocket testing are not covered here.) While this project was eventually successfully completed, a number of hardware integration problems were met, leading to catastrophic thrust chamber failures. The principal "lessons learned" in conducting this early primary rocket subsystem experimental effort are documented here as a basic knowledge-base contribution for the benefit of today's RBCC research and development community.

Pryor, D.↗

Spatial Statistical Data Fusion (SSDF)

As remote sensing for scientific purposes has transitioned from an experimental technology to an operational one, the selection of instruments has become more coordinated, so that the scientific community can exploit complementary measurements. However, tech nological and scientific heterogeneity across devices means that the statistical characteristics of the data they collect are different. The challenge addressed here is how to combine heterogeneous remote sensing data sets in a way that yields optimal statistical estimates of the underlying geophysical field, and provides rigorous uncertainty measures for those estimates. Different remote sensing data sets may have different spatial resolutions, different measurement error biases and variances, and other disparate characteristics. A state-of-the-art spatial statistical model was used to relate the true, but not directly observed, geophysical field to noisy, spatial aggregates observed by remote sensing instruments. The spatial covariances of the true field and the covariances of the true field with the observations were modeled. The observations are spatial averages of the true field values, over pixels, with different measurement noise superimposed. A kriging framework is used to infer optimal (minimum mean squared error and unbiased) estimates of the true field at point locations from pixel-level, noisy observations. A key feature of the spatial statistical model is the spatial mixed effects model that underlies it. The approach models the spatial covariance function of the underlying field using linear combinations of basis functions of fixed size. Approaches based on kriging require the inversion of very large spatial covariance matrices, and this is usually done by making simplifying assumptions about spatial covariance structure that simply do not hold for geophysical variables. In contrast, this method does not require these assumptions, and is also computationally much faster. This method is fundamentally different than other approaches to data fusion for remote sensing data because it is inferential rather than merely descriptive. All approaches combine data in a way that minimizes some specified loss function. Most of these are more or less ad hoc criteria based on what looks good to the eye, or some criteria that relate only to the data at hand.

Braverman, Amy J.↗

Constellation Operations: Lessons Learned For Future Exploration

The Earth science community has long advocated placing numerous instruments in space to study the Earth and its environment. Space agencies from many countries have responded to this call with a wide range of orbiting satellites. Scientists also envisioned placing some satellites in constellations, to enable diverse remote sensing instruments to observe the same part of the Earth (or its atmosphere) at about the same time, thereby increasing the opportunities for coincident science observations. The Earth Science Afternoon Constellation is answering this call, but there have been unique challenges on the way to its deployment. Currently, the Afternoon Constellation is to comprise six satellites. Three are currently on orbit: NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS)-Aqua (2002) and EOS-Aura (2004), and CNES's Polarization & Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar (PARASOL) (2004). Two more satellites, the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and Cloudsat, are to be jointly launched in late 2005, followed by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) in 2008. The Afternoon Constellation is unlike most satellite constellations in that: 1) It is not a homogenous mix of identical satellites; rather it comprises several satellites with complementary observational capabilities; 2) The satellites are not spaced around the Earth to provide instantaneous, global coverage (as for a communications satellite constellation); rather they orbit in close proximity so observations occur at about the same time over approximately the same region; and 3) Lastly, the satellites are not managed and controlled by one organization; rather the list of organizations is diverse: CNES in France, NASA Centers at Goddard, Langley, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and the US Air Force facility in New Mexico. The PARASOL launch and early orbit (L&EO) phase proved to be a learning experience for constellation members (including Constellation management). Prior to launch, all members signed an operations coordination document that spelled out basic requirements for keeping the constellation safe and resolving non-nominal events. Once PARASOL reached orbit and the mission teams gained experience using the newly-developed constellation monitoring tools, it became clear that some of the guidelines in the signed agreements had to be adjusted. This paper presents the L&EO lessons learned and how they were used to prepare for the next phase - the period following the CloudSat/CALIPSO launch.

Kelly, Angelita C.↗

Carbon in the Former Soviet Union: The Current Balance

This work has been carried out in a period of great changes in Russia that have brought extreme hardships to the scientific community. We have been fortunate in establishing excellent relationships with the Russian scientific community and believe we have helped to retain coherence in circumstances where the continuation of research was in doubt. We have learned much and have been effective in advancing, even establishing, scholars and programs in Russia that might not otherwise have survived the transition. The vigor of the International Boreal Forest Research Association (IBFRA) is one sign of the value and success of these activities. Largely due to the current political and economic transitions in the former Soviet Union, the forests of much of the FSU are under reduced logging pressure. In addition, there is a decline in air pollution as heavy industry has waned, at least for now. Russian forestry statistics and our personal experience indicate a decline, perhaps as high as 60%, in forest harvesting over the last few years. But, new international market pressures on the forests exist in European Russia and in the Far East. The central government, still the "owner" of Russian forests, is having difficulty maintaining control over forest use and management particularly in the Far East and among the southern territories that have large, nonRussian ethnic populations. Extraordinarily large areas of mixed forest and grasslands, sparse or open forests, and mixed forests and tundra must be considered when calculating forest area It is insufficient to think of Russia as simply forest and nonforest Forest productivity, measured as growth of timber, appears to be in decline in all areas of Russia except in European Russia. Most information and publications on the recent history of these forests is heavily dependent on statistical data from the Soviet era. The interpretation of these data is very much open to debate. Anatoly Shwidenko, a long term collaborator and former senior scientist (mensuration) for the Soviet Committee on Forests, now a scholar at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna, has provided abundant contributions from the data available to him and from his experience. Forest stand carbon is concentrated in the Russian Far East (i.e. Primorski Kray), Central-Southern Siberia and European Russia But, soil carbon can be 10 times forest stand C. Our efforts in mapping the area and changes in area (as well as the internal structure) of forests have made major contributions to our joint understanding of the scale and status of these forests. To realize the importance of this contribution one needs only to recognize that any large scale Soviet-era maps of the area did not include latitude and longitude. Even today, there is great reluctance to provide these data, the basis of any GIS.

Woodwell, G. M.↗

NASA-DoD Lead-Free Electronics Project. DRAFT Joint Test Report

The use of conventional tin-lead (SnPb) in circuit board manufacturing is under ever-increasing political scrutiny due to increasing regulations concerning lead. The "Restriction of Hazardous Substances" (RoHS) directive enacted by the European Union (EU) and a pact between the United States National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI), Europe's Soldertec at Tin Technology Ltd. and the Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA) are just two examples where worldwide legislative actions and partnerships/agreements are affecting the electronics industry. As a result, many global commercial-grade electronic component suppliers are initiating efforts to transition to lead-free (Pb-free) in order to retain their worldwide market. Pb-free components are likely to find their way into the inventory of aerospace or military assembly processes under current government acquisition reform initiatives. Inventories "contaminated" by Pb-free will result in increased risks associated with the manufacturing, product reliability, and subsequent repair of aerospace and military electronic systems. Although electronics for military and aerospace applications are not included in the RoHS legislation, engineers are beginning to find that the commercial industry's move towards RoHS compliance has affected their supply chain and changed their parts. Most parts suppliers plan to phase out their non-compliant, leaded production and many have already done so. As a result, the ability to find leaded components is getting harder and harder. Some buyers are now attempting to acquire the remaining SnPb inventory, if it's not already obsolete. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), depots, and support contractors have to be prepared to deal with an electronics supply chain that increasingly provides more and more parts with Pb-free finishes-some labeled no differently than their Pb counterparts-while at the same time providing the traditional Pb parts. The longer the transition period, the greater the likelihood of Pb-free parts inadvertently being mixed with Pb parts and ending up on what are supposed to be Pb systems. As a result, OEMs, depots, and support contractors need to take action now to either abate the influx of Pb-free parts, or accept it and deal with the likely interim consequences of reduced reliability due to a wide variety of matters, such as Pb contamination, high temperature incompatibility, and tin whiskering. Allowance of Pb-free components produces one of the greatest risks to the reliability of a weapon system. This is due to new and poorly understood failure mechanisms, as well as unknown long-term reliability. If the decision is made to consciously allow Pb-free solder and component finishes into SnPb electronics, additional effort (and cost) will be required to make the significant number of changes to drawings and task order procedures. This project is a follow-on effort to the Joint Council on Aging Aircraft/Joint Group on Pollution Prevention (JCAA/JG-PP) Pb-free Solder Project which was the first group to test the reliability of Pb-free solder joints against the requirements of the aerospace and military community.

Kessel, Kurt↗

Mixed-element USM3D Contributions to the 4th AIAA High-Lift Prediction Workshop

This paper discusses results of the mixed-element USM3D (USM3D-ME) simulations performed for the 4th AIAA High-Lift Prediction Workshop. The workshop was separated into six Technical Focus Groups to investigate the impact of geometry modeling, grid, and computational methods for predicting high lift flows. This work was performed under the Fixed Grid RANS Technical Focus Group. The primary geometry selected for the workshop was the High-Lift Common Research Model. The performed simulations included a flap deflection study and both a grid refinement study and pitch sweep for the nominal flap deflection configuration. The results show that USM3D-ME RANS solutions, generally, tends to underpredict the lift coefficient and to predict a less negative pitching moment relative to the experimental data. The predicted drag coefficient values agree better with experiment for smaller angles of attack but were observed to be larger than experiment for the largest angle of attack simulated. The results of the grid refinement study demonstrated a lack of grid convergence for the provided grid family. The results of the grid refinement study are consistent with the submissions to the Fixed Grid and Mesh Adaptation Technical Focus Groups. Grid convergence for the provided grid family remains elusive for the international community. A 2D Multielement Airfoil configuration was included to enable a turbulence model verification study, which illustrated favorable agreement between USM3D-ME and the solutions provided by other flow solvers.

CFD↗

Mixed-Element USM3D Contributions to the 4th AIAA High-Lift Prediction Workshop

This paper discusses results of the mixed-element USM3D (USM3D-ME) simulations performed for the 4th AIAA High-Lift Prediction Workshop. The workshop was separated into six Technical Focus Groups to investigate the impact of geometry modeling, grid, and computational methods for predicting high lift flows. This work was performed under the Fixed Grid RANS Technical Focus Group. The primary geometry selected for the workshop was the High-Lift Common Research Model. The performed simulations included a flap deflection study and both a grid refinement study and pitch sweep for the nominal flap deflection configuration. The results show that USM3D-ME RANS solutions, generally, tends to underpredict the lift coefficient and to predict a less negative pitching moment relative to the experimental data. The predicted drag coefficient values agree better with experiment for smaller angles of attack but were observed to be larger than experiment for the largest angle of attack simulated. The results of the grid refinement study demonstrated a lack of grid convergence for the provided grid family. The results of the grid refinement study are consistent with the submissions to the Fixed Grid and Mesh Adaptation Technical Focus Groups. Grid convergence for the provided grid family remains elusive for the international community. A 2D Multielement Airfoil configuration was included to enable a turbulence model verification study, which illustrated favorable agreement between USM3D-ME and the solutions provided by other flow solvers.

CFD↗

Isotopic Evidence for the Source and Fate of Phosphorus in Everglades Wetland Ecosystems

Phosphorus has historically been a limiting nutrient in the Florida Everglades. Increased P loading to the Everglades over the past several decades has led to significant changes in water quality and plant communities. Stormwater runoff that drains agricultural lands and enters the Water Conservation Areas (WCAs) are known to contain elevated levels of P, but the exact source of this P has not been fully determined. Here the results of an O isotope study of dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP) in both polluted and relatively pristine (or reference) areas of the Everglades are reported. The data reveal spatial and temporal variations in the delta 18O signature of DIP, reflecting the source and the degree of cycling of P. The delta 18O values of DIP collected from the Everglades National Park were close or equal to the predicted delta 18O values of DIP formed in situ in equilibrium with ambient water, indicating that P is quickly cycled in the water column in oligotrophic ecosystems with very low P concentrations. However, most DIP samples collected from areas impacted by agricultural runoff yielded delta 18O values that deviated from the predicted equilibrium DIP delta 18O values based on the delta 18O of water and water temperature, suggesting that biological cycling of P was not rapid enough to remove the fertilizer ?18O signature in the DIP pool from areas receiving high P loading. The delta 18O signature of DIP in impacted areas reflects a mixing of fertilizer P and biologically cycled P, where the relative proportions of biologically cycled vs. fertilizer DIP are controlled by both biological (microbial activities and plant uptake) and hydrologic factors (loading rate and residence time). Using a two-end-member (i.e., fertilizer P and biologically cycled P) mixing model, fertilizers were estimated to contribute about 15 100% of the DIP pool in the highly impacted areas of the northern Everglades, whereas the DIP pool in the reference (i.e., relatively pristine) wetlands in the Everglades National Park was dominated by biologically cycled P. The study shows that O isotopic measurements of dissolved PO(exp 3-, sub 4) can be a useful tool for tracing the fertilizer P inputs to freshwater ecosystems.

Li, Xin↗

High Resolution Digital Elevation Models of Pristine Explosion Craters

In order to effectively capture a realistic terrain applicable to studies of cratering processes and landing hazards on Mars, we have obtained high resolution digital elevation models of several pristine explosion craters at the Nevada Test Site. We used the Airborne Terrain Mapper (ATM), operated by NASA's Wallops Flight Facility to obtain DEMs with 1 m spacing and 10 cm vertical errors of 4 main craters and many other craters and collapse pits. The main craters that were mapped are Sedan, Scooter, Schooner, and Danny Boy. The 370 m diameter Sedan crater, located on Yucca Flat, is the largest and freshest explosion crater on Earth that was formed under conditions similar to hypervelocity impact cratering. As such, it is effectively pristine, having been formed in 1962 as a result of a controlled detonation of a 100 kiloton thermonuclear device, buried at the appropriate equivalent depth of burst required to make a simple crater. Sedan was formed in alluvium of mixed lithology and subsequently studied using a variety of field-based methods. Nearby secondary craters were also formed at the time and were also mapped by ATM. Adjacent to Sedan and also in alluvium is Scooter, about 90 m in diameter and formed by a high-explosive event. Schooner (240 m) and Danny Boy (80 m) craters were also important targets for ATM as they were excavated in hard basalt and therefore have much rougher ejecta. This will allow study of ejecta patterns in hard rock as well as engineering tests of crater and rock avoidance and rover trafficability. In addition to the high resolution DEMs, crater geometric characteristics, RMS roughness maps, and other higher-order derived data products will be generated using these data. These will provide constraints for models of landing hazards on Mars and for rover trafficability. Other planned studies will include ejecta size-frequency distribution at the resolution of the DEM and at finer resolution through air photography and field measurements, correlation of ejecta size and composition with radar and visible-thermal IR remote sensing signatures, and comparison of these results with similar measurements of Mars. The final DEMs, ancillary data sets, and derived data products will be made available to the community.

T G Farr↗

The radiated noise from isotropic turbulence and heated jets

Our understanding of aerodynamic noise has its foundations in the work of Sir James Lighthill (1952), which was the first major advance in acoustics since the pioneering work of Lord Rayleigh in the last century. The combination of Lighthill's theory of aerodynamic noise as applied to turbulent flows and the experimental growing database from the early 1950's was quickly exploited by various jet propulsion engine designers in reducing the noise of jet engines at takeoff and landing to levels marginally acceptable to communities living in the neighborhoods of airports. The success in this noise containment led to the rapid growth of fast economical subsonic civil transport aircraft worldwide throughout the 1960's and has continued to the present day. One important factor in this success story has been the improvements in the engine cycle that have led to both reductions in specific fuel consumption and noise. The second is the introduction of Noise Certification, which specifies the maximum noise levels at takeoff and landing that all aircraft must meet before they can be entered on the Civil Aircraft Register. The growing interest in the development of a new supersonic civil transport to replace 'Concorde' in the early years of the next century has led to a resurgence of interest in the more challenging problem of predicting the noise of hot supersonic jets and developing means of aircraft noise reduction at takeoff and landing to meet the standards now accepted for subsonic Noise Certification. The prediction of aircraft noise to the accuracy required to meet Noise Certification requirements has necessitated reliance upon experimental measurements and empirically derived laws based on the available experimental data bases. These laws have their foundation in the results from Lighthill's theory, but in the case of jet noise, where the noise is generated in the turbulent mixing region with the external ambient fluid, the complexity of the turbulent motion has prevented the full deployment of Lighthill's theory from being achieved. However, the growth of the supercomputer and its applications in the study of the structure of turbulent shear flows in both unbounded and wall bounded flows, which complements and in certain cases extends the work of the few dedicated experimental groups working in this field for the past forty years, provides an opportunity and challenge to accurately predict the noise from jets. Moreover a combination of numerical and laboratory experiments offers the hope that in the not too distant future the physics of noise generation and flow interaction will be better understood and it will then be possible to not only improve the accuracy of noise prediction but also to explore and optimize schemes for noise reduction. The present challenge is to provide time and space accurate numerical databases for heated subsonic and supersonic jets to provide information on the fourth-order space-time covariance of Lighthill's equivalent stress tensor, T(ij), which governs the characteristics of the farfield radiated noise and the total acoustic power. Validation with available experimental databases will establish how close Lighthill's theory is to the accurate prediction of the directivity and spectrum of jet noise and the total acoustic power, and the need, in the applications of the theory, to include the effects of flow-acoustic interaction.

Lilley, G. M.↗

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben D Phillips↗

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben Phillips↗

Environmental Stress Testing of the Single Sample Cylinder: A Proven Consensus Standard for Internal Gas Analysis (IGA) or Residual Gas Analysis (RGA)

In August 2008, Schuessler Consulting was contracted by NASA GSFC in support of the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) program to perform two separate studies on moisture laden air in a stainless steel cylinder that had been designed to become a consensus standard for Test Method 1018. This Test Method was originally released for hybrids under Mil. Std. 883 but was quickly utilized on other microelectronic devices under the auspice of Mil. Std. 750. The cylinder had subsequently been fabricated for the 750 community. It was back-filled with moist air and subsequently analyzed over a period of time under a previous NASA contract. It had been shown that moisture in the 4000 - 5000 ppm range could be analyzed rather precisely with a mass spectrometer, commonly referred to as a Residual Gas Analyzer (RGA). The scope of this study was to ascertain if the composition and precision varied as a function of thermal shock at sub-zero temperatures and whether there was consensus when the standard was submitted to other RGA units. It was demonstrated and published that the consensus standard would yield precise RGA data for moisture within +/- 1% when optimized for a given RGA unit. It has been subsequently shown in this study at Oneida Research Services, that sub-zero storage did not affect that precision when a well-defined protocol for the analysis was followed. The consensus standard was taken to a second facility for analysis where it was found that moisture adsorption on the transfer lines caused precision to drop to +/- 12%. The Single Sample Cylinder (SSC) is a one liter stainless steel cylinder with associated sampling valves and has considerable weight and volume. But this considerable size allows for approximately 300 gas samples of the same composition to be delivered to any RGA unit. Lastly, a smaller cylinder, approximately 75 cc, of a second consensus standard was fabricated and tested with a different mix of fixed gases where moisture was kept in the 100 ppm range. This second standard has the potential of providing 30 gaseous samples and can be readily shipped to any analytical facility that desires to generate comparison RGA data. A series of comparison residual gas analyses was performed at the Honeywell Federal Manufacturing & Technologies facility in the National Nuclear Facility Administration s plant in Kansas City to complete this project. It was shown that improvements in the precision of a given RGA unit can be done by controlling the cycle time for each analysis and increasing analysis temperatures to minimize moisture adsorption. It was also found that a "one time event" in the subzero storage of the large SSC did not effect the units ability to continuously supply precise samples of the same chemistry, however the "event" caused a permanent +8% shift in the reported value of the moisture content. Lastly, a set of SSC RGA results was plotted on a common graph with DSCC "correlation study" RGA data. The result demonstrates the ability of the SSC to remove many of the individual variances that single, individual samples introduce. The consensus standards are now in storage at Oneida Research Services, one of the DSCC certified houses that does RGA to Military Standards, where they await future studies. The analytical data and the operational parameters of the instruments used are provided in the following discussion. Limitations and suggested means for improvement of both precision and accuracy are provided.

Schuessler, Philipp WH↗