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At least 199 records · Page 11

Predicting Pilot Error in Nextgen: Pilot Performance Modeling and Validation Efforts

We review 25 articles presenting 5 general classes of computational models to predict pilot error. This more targeted review is placed within the context of the broader review of computational models of pilot cognition and performance, including such aspects as models of situation awareness or pilot-automation interaction. Particular emphasis is placed on the degree of validation of such models against empirical pilot data, and the relevance of the modeling and validation efforts to Next Gen technology and procedures.

pilot error↗

Validation of Model Forecasts of the Ambient Solar Wind

Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support.

Macneice, P. J.↗

Advancing Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting

With growing interest from the aviation and satellite industries, and for NASA’s upcoming Artemis lunar missions, the need for improved scientific understanding and accurate forecasting of solar energetic particle events has never been stronger. In this paper we discuss the observational, validation and model transition support required to achieve these goals. Well-calibrated, high-quality energetic electron, proton, and ion measurements are essential. Expansions to the fields of view offered by current X-ray, extreme ultraviolet and coronagraph instruments, to obtain increased coverage of the solar corona and heliosphere, from vantage points off the Sun-Earth line, are desired for model input. New observations of suprathermal particles are needed to characterize seed particle distributions and low latency space-based observations of solar radio emissions are also desired. Together, this observational suite should offer high cadence, low latency, reliable and accurate space weather data streams. Consistent, extensive and quantitative model validation is required to assess scientific advancements and pave the way for models transitioning to real-time forecast operations. Model performance and skill should be compared to observations and to current operational forecasting baselines. Finally, resources are required to support the significant effort of transitioning mature models into forecast operations.

solar energetic particles↗

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗

Pulsed Inductive Thruster (PIT): Modeling and Validation Using the MACH2 Code

Numerical modeling of the Pulsed Inductive Thruster exercising the magnetohydrodynamics code, MACH2 aims to provide bilateral validation of the thruster's measured performance and the code's capability of capturing the pertinent physical processes. Computed impulse values for helium and argon propellants demonstrate excellent correlation to the experimental data for a range of energy levels and propellant-mass values. The effects of the vacuum tank wall and massinjection scheme were investigated to show trivial changes in the overall performance. An idealized model for these energy levels and propellants deduces that the energy expended to the internal energy modes and plasma dissipation processes is independent of the propellant type, mass, and energy level.

Schneider, Steven↗

The Flight Dynamics Risk Assessment of Artemis I

With launch vehicles and spacecraft, it is necessary to dynamically test the structure to validate structural models. These validated models are then used to determine a launch vehicle's control stability margin and the loads on the structure. While often a dedicated structural test article is used to correlate the integrated structure in preparation for the final analysis cycles, the Artemis I flight is using an approach where the components of the launch vehicle are dynamically tested and the component models validated. The fully integrated vehicle is not tested until a few months before launch, which limits the ability to fully correlate a model prior to launch. This paper introduces the Flight Dynamics Risk Assessment of the vehicle, which is the process being used to determine the adequacy of the vehicle structural model after the Integrated Modal Test. This work outlines the process of quickly tuning a model post-test then determining any control margin violations and increases in loads due to that tuned model.

Eric C Stewart↗

The Flight Dynamics Risk Assessment of Artemis I

With launch vehicles and spacecraft, it is necessary to dynamically test the structure to validate structural models. These validated models are then used to determine a launch vehicle's control stability margin and the loads on the structure. While often a dedicated structural test article is used to correlate the integrated structure in preparation for the final analysis cycles, the Artemis I flight is using an approach where the components of the launch vehicle are dynamically tested and the component models validated. The fully integrated vehicle is not tested until a few months before launch, which limits the ability to fully correlate a model prior to launch. This paper introduces the Flight Dynamics Risk Assessment of the vehicle, which is the process being used to determine the adequacy of the vehicle structural model after the Integrated Modal Test. This work outlines the process of quickly tuning a model post-test then determining any control margin violations and increases in loads due to the tuning of the model.

Eric C Stewart↗

Extraction of Vibration Data with Imaging

To date, the primary sensing technology used to measure the vibration response has been accelerometers and strain gages mounted directly to the structure and using either wired or, more recently, wireless telemetry. Cost issues with these sensors and the associated data acquisition systems typically limit the numbers that are deployed on in situ structures. Although there are a few structures with larger sensing counts that in some cases exceed over 1000 sensors, more typical numbers range from ten to one hundred sensors resulting in low spatial resolution when they are applied to physically large systems. When one considers that nuclear power plant structures usually have complex geometries, material properties, connectivity and boundary conditions, it is clear these current approaches to vibration measurements can only provide limited information about a system’s dynamics response characteristics. As an alternative, many non-contact measurement technologies have emerged, including point wise measurement methods such as Global Positioning System (GPS), microwave interferometry, and laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV), as well as simultaneous full-field measurement methods such as electronic speckle pattern interferometry, holography interferometry, and muon tomography, some of which can provide high spatial resolution measurements. Among these methods, digital video imaging techniques have emerged as a feasible solution for full-field vibration measurements that provide significantly more detailed dynamic response information because every pixel becomes a measurement point. Furthermore, recent advances in image processing and computer vision algorithms have been successfully used to process video data for experimental and operational modal analysis. Such full-field measurements have the potential to significantly improve many current structural assessment procedures including system identification (modal parameter estimation), structural health monitoring, load reconstruction, model validation, and model updating. Furthermore, more recent full-field imaging techniques can be accomplished with relatively low-cost, commercially-available off-the-shelf cameras. However, these measurement procedures have other limitations that must be considered such as the ability to only measure visibly accessible points on a structure and a more limited dynamic range and bandwidth than can be achieved with accelerometers or strain gages.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Comparison of free-piston Stirling engine model predictions with RE1000 engine test data

Predictions of a free-piston Stirling engine model are compared with RE1000 engine test data taken at NASA-Lewis Research Center. The model validation and the engine testing are being done under a joint interagency agreement between the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory and NASA-Lewis. A kinematic code developed at Lewis was upgraded to permit simulation of free-piston engine performance; it was further upgraded and modified at Lewis and is currently being validated. The model predicts engine performance by numerical integration of equations for each control volume in the working space. Piston motions are determined by numerical integration of the force balance on each piston or can be specified as Fourier series. In addition, the model Fourier analyzes the various piston forces to permit the construction of phasor force diagrams. The paper compares predicted and experimental values of power and efficiency and shows phasor force diagrams for the RE1000 engine displacer and piston. Further development plans for the model are also discussed.

Tew, R. C., Jr.↗

Comparison of free-piston Stirling engine model predictions with RE1000 engine test data

Predictions of a free-piston Stirling engine model are compared with RE1000 engine test data taken at NASA-Lewis Research Center. The model validation and the engine testing are being done under a joint interagency agreement between the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory and NASA-Lewis. A kinematic code developed at Lewis was upgraded to permit simulation of free-piston engine performance; it was further upgraded and modified at Lewis and is currently being validated. The model predicts engine performance by numerical integration of equations for each control volume in the working space. Piston motions are determined by numerical integration of the force balance on each piston or can be specified as Fourier series. In addition, the model Fourier analyzes the various piston forces to permit the construction of phasor force diagrams. The paper compares predicted and experimental values of power and efficiency and shows phasor force diagrams for the RE1000 engine displacer and piston. Further development plans for the model are also discussed.

Tew, R. C.↗

Generating A Strobed Laser Light Sheet

An optoelectronic system generating synchronous, strobed sheet of laser light developed for use in making visible flow of air about model helicopter rotor. Used in wind-tunnel tests to determine actual locations of vortices for comparison with locations predicted by mathematical models to validate models. Each blade tip produces vortex. By establishing successive vortex locations, researcher determines trajectory of vortex pattern. Light-sheet strobe circuits provide selection of blade positions, strobe-pulse durations, and multiple pulses per revolution for rotors having two to nine blades. To make flow visible, vaporizing propylene glycol injected upstream of model. System also provides calibrated trigger delay of strobe pulses, adjustable strobe-pulse durations, selectable number of blades, and slip-sync mode to make flow visible as though in slow motion.

Leighty, Bradley D.↗

Computer Aided Modeling to Determine the Effectiveness of Resistive Exercises as Countermeasures for Bone Mineral Density Loss

Due to the loss of gravitational loading, astronauts have a tendency to lose bone mineral density in their lumbar spine and lower extremities on orbit. NASA requires astronauts to perform exercises during space flight to help reduce the amount of demineralization. To test these exercises on earth, 17 week bed rest studies are conducted that consist of specific diet and exercise regimes. Developing a finite element model of these exercises will help to quantify the stress distribution imposed by of each of these exercises. To help develop this model, MRI images are acquired from individuals participating in the bed rest studies. The MRIs can be used to create a subject specific model of each individual for testing. The MRIs are processed in the Magnetic Resonance Imaging Data Transfer System program to develop a three-dimensional finite element model of the femur for evaluation. Modifications were made to the MRIDTS that simplified the model creation process. These modifications made it possible to construct two separate models of different portions of a bone simultaneously and then later connect them manually. This helped alleviate the warping problem associated with the drastic changes in geometry found in some body parts, such as the joints. The code was also modified to incorporate material properties of various bone components into the model. Interior meshing was also incorporated into the program to allow for both the cortical shell and the entire bone to be modeled. A prototype model of the right femur of an adult female is being constructed and tested to determine the feasibility of finite element analysis as a tool for evaluating exercise effectiveness. The model is being run through the ANSYS finite element program on the Alabama Super Computer Network. After the model is validated, models of bedrest subjects can be generated to investigate exercise countermeasures.

Murphy, Benjamin M.↗

Turbulence Climatology at Dallas/Ft.Worth (DFW) Airport: Implications for a Departure Wake Vortex Spacing System

Potential adaptive wake vortex spacing systems may need to rely on wake vortex decay rather than wake vortex transport in reducing wake separations. A wake vortex takeoff-spacing system in particular will need to rely on wake decay. Ambient turbulence is the primary influence on wake decay away from the ground. This study evaluated 18 months of ambient turbulence measurements at Dallas/Ft. Worth (DFW) Airport. The measurements show minor variation in the turbulence levels at various times of the year or times of the day for time periods when a departure system could be used. Arrival system operation was also examined, and a slightly lower overall turbulence level was found as compared to departure system benefit periods. The Sarpkaya model, a validated model of wake vortex behavior, was applied to various turbulence levels and compared to the DFW turbulence statistics. The results show that wake vortices from heavy aircraft on takeoff should dissipate within one minute for the majority of the time and will rarely last two minutes. These results will need to be verified by wake vortex measurements on departure.

Perras, G. H.↗

Advanced UVOIR Mirror Technology Development for Very Large Space Telescopes

Objective of this work is to define and initiate a long-term program to mature six inter-linked critical technologies for future UVOIR space telescope mirrors to TRL6 by 2018 so that a viable flight mission can be proposed to the 2020 Decadal Review. (1) Large-Aperture, Low Areal Density, High Stiffness Mirrors: 4 to 8 m monolithic & 8 to 16 m segmented primary mirrors require larger, thicker, stiffer substrates. (2) Support System:Large-aperture mirrors require large support systems to ensure that they survive launch and deploy on orbit in a stress-free and undistorted shape. (3) Mid/High Spatial Frequency Figure Error:A very smooth mirror is critical for producing a high-quality point spread function (PSF) for high-contrast imaging. (4) Segment Edges:Edges impact PSF for high-contrast imaging applications, contributes to stray light noise, and affects the total collecting aperture. (5) Segment-to-Segment Gap Phasing:Segment phasing is critical for producing a high-quality temporally stable PSF. (6) Integrated Model Validation:On-orbit performance is determined by mechanical and thermal stability. Future systems require validated performance models. We are pursuing multiple design paths give the science community the option to enable either a future monolithic or segmented space telescope.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

Photogrammetry Measurements During a Tanking Test on the Space Shuttle External Tank, ET-137

On November 5, 2010, a significant foam liberation threat was observed as the Space Shuttle STS-133 launch effort was scrubbed because of a hydrogen leak at the ground umbilical carrier plate. Further investigation revealed the presence of multiple cracks at the tops of stringers in the intertank region of the Space Shuttle External Tank. As part of an instrumented tanking test conducted on December 17, 2010, a three dimensional digital image correlation photogrammetry system was used to measure radial deflections and overall deformations of a section of the intertank region. This paper will describe the experimental challenges that were overcome in order to implement the photogrammetry measurements for the tanking test in support of STS-133. The technique consisted of configuring and installing two pairs of custom stereo camera bars containing calibrated cameras on the 215-ft level of the fixed service structure of Launch Pad 39-A. The cameras were remotely operated from the Launch Control Center 3.5 miles away during the 8 hour duration test, which began before sunrise and lasted through sunset. The complete deformation time history was successfully computed from the acquired images and would prove to play a crucial role in the computer modeling validation efforts supporting the successful completion of the root cause analysis of the cracked stringer problem by the Space Shuttle Program. The resulting data generated included full field fringe plots, data extraction time history analysis, section line spatial analyses and differential stringer peak ]valley motion. Some of the sample results are included with discussion. The resulting data showed that new stringer crack formation did not occur for the panel examined, and that large amounts of displacement in the external tank occurred because of the loads derived from its filling. The measurements acquired were also used to validate computer modeling efforts completed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC).

Littell, Justin D.↗

Computational Process Modeling for Additive Manufacturing

Computational Process and Material Modeling of Powder Bed additive manufacturing of IN 718. Optimize material build parameters with reduced time and cost through modeling. Increase understanding of build properties. Increase reliability of builds. Decrease time to adoption of process for critical hardware. Potential to decrease post-build heat treatments. Conduct single-track and coupon builds at various build parameters. Record build parameter information and QM Meltpool data. Refine Applied Optimization powder bed AM process model using data. Report thermal modeling results. Conduct metallography of build samples. Calibrate STK models using metallography findings. Run STK models using AO thermal profiles and report STK modeling results. Validate modeling with additional build. Photodiode Intensity measurements highly linear with power input. Melt Pool Intensity highly correlated to Melt Pool Size. Melt Pool size and intensity increase with power. Applied Optimization will use data to develop powder bed additive manufacturing process model.

Bagg, Stacey↗

Application of High Speed Digital Image Correlation in Rocket Engine Hot Fire Testing

Hot fire testing of rocket engine components and rocket engine systems is a critical aspect of the development process to understand performance, reliability and system interactions. Ground testing provides the opportunity for highly instrumented development testing to validate analytical model predictions and determine necessary design changes and process improvements. To properly obtain discrete measurements for model validation, instrumentation must survive in the highly dynamic and extreme temperature application of hot fire testing. Digital Image Correlation has been investigated and being evaluated as a technique to augment traditional instrumentation during component and engine testing providing further data for additional performance improvements and cost savings. The feasibility of digital image correlation techniques were demonstrated in subscale and full scale hotfire testing. This incorporated a pair of high speed cameras to measure three-dimensional, real-time displacements and strains installed and operated under the extreme environments present on the test stand. The development process, setup and calibrations, data collection, hotfire test data collection and post-test analysis and results are presented in this paper.

Gradl, Paul R.↗

Estimation of Aerosol Optical Depth at Different Wavelengths by Multiple Regression Method

This study aims to investigate and establish a suitable model that can help to estimate aerosol optical depth (AOD) in order to monitor aerosol variations especially during non-retrieval time. The relationship between actual ground measurements (such as air pollution index, visibility, relative humidity, temperature, and pressure) and AOD obtained with a CIMEL sun photometer was determined through a series of statistical procedures to produce an AOD prediction model with reasonable accuracy. The AOD prediction model calibrated for each wavelength has a set of coefficients. The model was validated using a set of statistical tests. The validated model was then employed to calculate AOD at different wavelengths. The results show that the proposed model successfully predicted AOD at each studied wavelength ranging from 340 nm to 1020 nm. To illustrate the application of the model, the aerosol size determined using measure AOD data for Penang was compared with that determined using the model. This was done by examining the curvature in the ln [AOD]-ln [wavelength] plot. Consistency was obtained when it was concluded that Penang was dominated by fine mode aerosol in 2012 and 2013 using both measured and predicted AOD data. These results indicate that the proposed AOD prediction model using routine measurements as input is a promising tool for the regular monitoring of aerosol variation during non-retrieval time.

Tan, Fuyi↗