Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model fitting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Wideband dynamic radio spectra of two ultra-cool dwarfs

A number of radio-loud ultra-cool dwarf (UCD) stars exhibit both continuous broadband and highly polarized pulsed radio emission. In order to determine the nature of the emission and the physical characteristics in the source region, we have made multi-epoch, wideband spectral observations of TVLM 0513-46 and 2M 0746+20. We combine these observations with archival radio data to fully characterize both the temporal and spectral properties of the radio emission. The continuum spectral energy distribution can be well modeled using gyrosynchrotron emission from mildly relativistic electrons in a dipolar field. The pulsed emission exhibits a variety of time-variable characteristics, including frequency drifts, frequency cutoffs, and multiple pulses per period. For 2M 0746+20 we determine a pulse period consistent with previously determined values. We modeled locations of pulsed emission using an oblique rotating magnetospheric model with beamed electron-cyclotron maser (ECM) sources. The best-fit models have narrow ECM beaming angles aligned with the local source magnetic field direction, except for one isolated burst from 2M 0746+20. For TVLM 0513-46, the best-fit rotation axis inclination is nearly orthogonal to the line of sight. For 2M 0746+20 we found a good fit using a fixed inclination i=36{sup ∘}, determined from optical observations. For both stars the ECM sources are located near feet of magnetic loops with radial extents 1.2R{sub s}–2.7R{sub s} and surface fields 2.2–2.5 kG. These results support recent suggestions that radio over-luminous UCDs have a global “weak field” non-axisymmetric magnetic topologies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

sparse_bias

This is a python package used to fit an unknown function from data that potential contains systematic biases related to metadata. The model fits the unknown function and uses a Bayesian horseshoe prior model to impose sparsity on the bias terms. This code has been generalized from research code developed for AIACHNE into a package that should have more general application in a wider class of statistical models.

Walton, Noah↗
DOE OSTI2016

Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies

Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multidisciplinary explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, we were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements have been a result of a range of factors, from biological and hydrological to political and cultural. Furthermore, project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radiation effects on atherosclerosis in atomic bomb survivors: a cross-sectional study using structural equation modeling

Past reports indicated that total-body irradiation at low to moderate doses could be responsible for cardiovascular disease risks, but the mechanism remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between radiation exposure and atherosclerosis, an underlying pathology of cardiovascular diseases, in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. We performed a cross-sectional study measuring 14 clinical-physiological atherosclerosis indicators during clinical exams from 2010 to 2014 in 3274 participants of the Adult Health Study cohort. Multivariable analyses were performed by using a structural equation model with latent factors representing underlying atherosclerotic pathologies: (1) arterial stiffness, (2) calcification, and (3) plaque as measured with indicators chosen a priori on the basis of clinical-physiological knowledge. Radiation was linearly associated with calcification (standardized coefficient per Gy 0.15, 95 % confidence interval: CI [0.070, 0.23]) and plaque (0.11, 95 % CI [0.029, 0.20]), small associations that were comparable to about 2 years of aging per Gy of radiation exposure, but not with arterial stiffness (0.036, 95 % CI [-0.025, 0.095]). The model fitted better and had narrower confidence intervals than separate ordinary regression models explaining individual indicators independently. The associations were less evident when the dose range was restricted to a maximum of 2 or 1 Gy. By combining individual clinical-physiological indicators that are correlated because of common, underlying atherosclerotic pathologies, we found a small, but significant association of radiation with atherosclerosis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

qFeature

This package contains statistical routines for extracting features from multivariate time-series data which can then be used for subsequent multivariate statistical analysis to identify patterns and anomalous behavior. It calculates local linear or quadratic regression model fits to moving windows for each series and then summarizes the model coefficients across user-defined time intervals for each series. These methods are domain agnostic-but they have been successfully applied to a variety of domains, including commercial aviation and electric power grid data.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2017

THE AGE OF THE KIC 7177553 SYSTEM

KIC 7177553 is a quadruple system containing two binaries of orbital periods 16.5 and 18 days. All components have comparable masses and are slowly rotating with spectral types of ∼G2V. The longer period binary is eclipsing with component masses and radii M {sub 1} = 1.043 ± 0.014 M {sub ⊙}, R {sub 1} = 0.940 ± 0.005 R {sub ⊙} and M {sub 2} = 0.986 ± 0.015 M {sub ⊙}, R {sub 2} = 0.941 ± 0.005 R {sub ⊙}. The essentially equal radii measurements are inconsistent with the two stars being on the man sequence at the same age using standard nonmagnetic stellar evolution models. Instead a consistent scenario is found if the stars are in their pre-main-sequence phase of evolution and have an age of 32–36 Myr. We have also computed evolutionary models of magnetic stars, but we find that our nonmagnetic models fit the empirical radii and effective temperatures better than the magnetic models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

qFeature

This package contains statistical routines for extracting features from multivariate time-series data which can then be used for subsequent multivariate statistical analysis to identify patterns and anomalous behavior. It calculates local linear or quadratic regression model fits to moving windows for each series and then summarizes the model coefficients across user-defined time intervals for each series. These methods are domain agnostic-but they have been successfully applied to a variety of domains, including commercial aviation and electric power grid data.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2018

Candidate massive galaxies at z ~ 4 in the Dark Energy Survey

Using stellar population models, we predicted that the Dark Energy Survey (DES) - due to its special combination of area (5000 deg. sq.) and depth ($i = 24.3$) - would be in the position to detect massive ($\gtrsim 10^{11}$ M$_{\odot}$) galaxies at $z \sim 4$. We confront those theoretical calculations with the first $\sim 150$ deg. sq. of DES data reaching nominal depth. From a catalogue containing $\sim 5$ million sources, $\sim26000$ were found to have observed-frame $g-r$ vs $r-i$ colours within the locus predicted for $z \sim 4$ massive galaxies. We further removed contamination by stars and artefacts, obtaining 606 galaxies lining up by the model selection box. We obtained their photometric redshifts and physical properties by fitting model templates spanning a wide range of star formation histories, reddening and redshift. Key to constrain the models is the addition, to the optical DES bands $g$, $r$, $i$, $z$, and $Y$, of near-IR $J$, $H$, $K_{s}$ data from the Vista Hemisphere Survey. We further applied several quality cuts to the fitting results, including goodness of fit and a unimodal redshift probability distribution. We finally select 233 candidates whose photometric redshift probability distribution function peaks around $z\sim4$, have high stellar masses ($\log($M$^{*}$/M$_{\odot})\sim 11.7$ for a Salpeter IMF) and ages around 0.1 Gyr, i.e. formation redshift around 5. These properties match those of the progenitors of the most massive galaxies in the local universe. This is an ideal sample for spectroscopic follow-up to select the fraction of galaxies which is truly at high redshift. These initial results and those at the survey completion, which we shall push to higher redshifts, will set unprecedented constraints on galaxy formation, evolution, and the re-ionisation epoch.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sorption testing and generalized composite surface complexation models for determining uranium sorption parameters at a proposed in-situ recovery site

Solid-phase iron concentrations and generalized composite surface complexation models were used to evaluate procedures in determining uranium sorption on oxidized aquifer material at a proposed U in situ recovery (ISR) site. At the proposed Dewey Burdock ISR site in South Dakota, USA, oxidized aquifer material occurs downgradient of the U ore zones. Solid-phase Fe concentrations did not explain our batch sorption test results,though total extracted Fe appeared to be positively correlated with overall measured U sorption. Batch sorption test results were used to develop generalized composite surface complexation models that incorporated the full genericsorption potential of each sample, without detailed mineralogiccharacterization. The resultant models provide U sorption parameters (site densities and equilibrium constants) for reactive transport modeling. The generalized composite surface complexation sorption models were calibrated to batch sorption data from three oxidized core samples using inverse modeling, and gave larger sorption parameters than just U sorption on the measured solidphase Fe. These larger sorption parameters can significantly influence reactive transport modeling, potentially increasing U attenuation. Because of the limited number of calibration points, inverse modeling required the reduction of estimated parameters by fixing two parameters. The best-fit models used fixed values for equilibrium constants, with the sorption site densities being estimated by the inversion process. While these inverse routines did provide best-fit sorption parameters, local minima and correlated parameters might require further evaluation. Despite our limited number of proxy samples, the procedures presented provide a valuable methodology to consider for sites where metal sorption parameters are required. Furthermore, these sorption parameters can be used in reactive transport modeling to assess downgradient metal attenuation, especially when no other calibration data are available, such as at proposed U ISR sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stellar population analysis of MaNGA early-type galaxies: IMF dependence and systematic effects

We study systematics associated with estimating simple stellar population (SSP) parameters – age, metallicity [M/H], α-enhancement [α/Fe], and initial mass function (IMF) shape – and associated M * /L gradients, of elliptical slow rotators (E-SRs), fast rotators (E-FRs), and S0s from stacked spectra of galaxies in the MaNGA survey. These systematics arise from (i) how one normalizes the spectra when stacking; (ii) having to subtract emission before estimating absorption line strengths; (iii) the decision to fit the whole spectrum or just a few absorption lines; (iv) SSP model differences (e.g. isochrones, enrichment, IMF). The MILES+Padova SSP models, fit to the H β , 〈Fe〉, TiO 2SDSS , and [MgFe] Lick indices in the stacks, indicate that out to the half-light radius R e : (a) ages are younger and [α/Fe] values are lower in the central regions but the opposite is true of [M/H]; (b) the IMF is more bottom-heavy in the center, but is close to Kroupa beyond about R e /2; (c) this makes M * /L about 2 × larger in the central regions than beyond R e /2. While the models of Conroy et al. return similar [M/H] and [α/Fe] profiles, the age and (hence) M * /L profiles can differ significantly even for solar abundances and a Kroupa IMF; different responses to non-solar abundances and IMF parametrization further compound these differences. There are clear (model independent) differences between E-SRs, E-FRs, and S0s: younger ages and less enhanced [α/Fe] values suggest that E-FRs and S0s are not SSPs, but relaxing this assumption is unlikely to change their inferred M * /L gradients significantly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A predictive 0-D HCCI combustion model for ethanol, natural gas, gasoline, and primary reference fuel blends

Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) is a promising advanced combustion concept with high thermal efficiency and low exhaust emissions. This work purposes a computationally-efficient, zero-dimensional (0-D) HCCI combustion model that does not need to solve any differential equations. To develop the burn rate correlations, experimental HCCI data of ethanol, natural gas, E10-gasoline, and Primary Reference Fuel (PRF) blends was collected on a CFR engine. The burn rate model is built based on the individual cycle mass fraction burned (MFB) curves calculated from the experimental data. CA0 can be predicted from an ignition delay correlation. Once CA0 is known, CA50 and CA90 can be predicted based on CA0 and the charge-mass equivalence ratio Φ'. Then, with CA0, 50 and 90 known, a Wiebe function can be constructed to represent the MFB curve and burn rate. For PRF blends, low-temperature and high-temperature heat releases (LTHR and HTHR) are modeled by two Wiebe functions with Φ' and PRF number dependence. The fitted model has high accuracy compared to the experimental data with R 2 values generally greater than 0.97. Finally, various ignition delay correlations from the literature are also tested against the experimentally collected data and some modifications to the correlations are suggested.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relationship between ductility and the porosity of additively manufactured AlSi10Mg

Additive manufacturing via selective laser melting can result in variable levels of internal porosity both between build plates and within components from the same build. In this work, sample porosity levels were compared to tensile properties for 176 samples spanning eight different build plates. Sample porosity was measured both by Archimedes density, which provided an estimation of overall porosity, and by observation of voids in the fracture surface, which provided an estimation of the porosity at the failure plane. The porosity observed at the fracture surface consistently demonstrated higher porosity than that suggested by Archimedes density. The porosity values obtained from both methods were compared against the mechanical results. Sample porosity appears to have some correlation to the ultimate tensile strength, yield strength, and modulus, but the strongest relationship is observed between porosity and ductility. Three different models were used to relate the fracture surface porosity to the ductility. The first method was a simple linear regression analysis, while the other two models have been used to relate porosity to ductility in cast alloys. It is shown that all three models fit the data well over the observed porosity ranges, suggesting that the models taken from casting theory can extend to additively manufactured metals. Finally, it is proposed that the non-destructive Archimedes method could be used to estimate an approximate sample ductility through the use of correlations realized here. Such a relationship could prove useful for design and for a deeper understanding of the impact of pores on tensile behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Direct identification of predator-prey dynamics in gyrokinetic simulations

The interaction between spontaneously formed zonal flows and small-scale turbulence in nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations is explored in a shearless closed field line geometry. It is found that when clear limit cycle oscillations prevail, the observed turbulent dynamics can be quantitatively captured by a simple Lotka-Volterra type predator-prey model. Fitting the time traces of full gyrokinetic simulations by such a reduced model allows extraction of the model coefficients. Scanning physical plasma parameters, such as collisionality and density gradient, it was observed that the effective growth rates of turbulence (i.e., the prey) remain roughly constant, in spite of the higher and varying level of primary mode linear growth rates. The effective growth rate that was extracted corresponds roughly to the zonal-flow-modified primary mode growth rate. It was also observed that the effective damping of zonal flows (i.e., the predator) in the parameter range, where clear predator-prey dynamics is observed, (i.e., near marginal stability) agrees with the collisional damping expected in these simulations. This implies that the Kelvin-Helmholtz-like instability may be negligible in this range. The results imply that when the tertiary instability plays a role, the dynamics becomes more complex than a simple Lotka-Volterra predator prey.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing Baselines and Change in Gas Hydrate Systems using EM Methods

The objective of this project was to advance our understanding of gas hydrate systems in nature by characterizing their electrical properties in the field and in the laboratory. In the laboratory measurements, methane hydrate was synthesized from pure water ice and flash frozen seawater, with varying amounts of sand or silt added. Electrical conductivity was determined by impedance spectroscopy, using equivalent circuit modeling to separate the effects of electrodes and to gain insight into conduction mechanisms. Silt and sand increase the conductivity of pure hydrate, inferred to be contaminant NaCl contributing to conduction in hydrate, to a peak conductivity in agreement with peak resistivities observed in well logs through massive hydrate (3,000--10,000 Ωm). The addition of silt and sand lowers the conductivity of hydrate synthesized from seawater, by an amount consistent with Archie's Law. All samples were characterized using cryogenic scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy, which shows good connectivity of salt and brine phases. Electrical conductivity measurements of pure hydrate and hydrate mixed with silt during pressure-induced dissociation supports previous conclusions that sediment increases dissociation rate. In order to characterize gas hydrate systems in the field, we collected 360 line kilometers of controlled-source electromagnetic data on Walker Ridge 313, Orca Basin (WR100), Mad Dog (GC781), and Green Canyon 955 in the Gulf of Mexico, all areas with known or seismically inferred gas hydrate deposits and which have be drilled or targeted for future drilling. We deep-towed an EM transmitter that generates an alternating electric field which propagates through the seafloor geology. Data were recorded on 6 receivers towed behind the transmitter at distances between 550 and 1550 m. In the presence of conductive geology, the electric fields will be attenuated, and conversely, in resistive geology the fields will be preserved. Our data were inverted using a 2D inversion method that first optimizes the model-data misfit, then finds the smoothest model fitting the data. This ensures that resistivity structures present in the final model are likely necessary. At each of the proposed drilling sites we found increased resistivity, interpreted as increased hydrate concentrations. However, not only were the primary drilling sites not always more resistive than the alternate sites, at WR313 the strongest resistors were not at the locations targeted for drilling.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2019

GD358: Three Decades of Observations for the In-depth Asteroseismology of a DBV Star

Here, we report on the analysis of 34 years of photometric observations of the pulsating helium atmosphere white dwarf GD358. The complete data set includes archival data from 1982 to 2006, and 1195.2 hr of new observations from 2007 to 2016. From this data set, we extract 15 frequencies representing g-mode pulsation modes, adding 4 modes to the 11 modes known previously. We present evidence that these 15 modes are ℓ = 1 modes, 13 of which belong to a consecutive sequence in radial overtone k. We perform a detailed asteroseismic analysis using models that include parameterized, complex, carbon and oxygen core composition profiles to fit the periods. Recent spectroscopic analyses place GD358 near the red edge of the DBV instability strip, at 24,000 ± 500 K and a $\mathrm{log}\,{\text{}}g$ of 7.8 ± 0.08 dex. The surface gravity translates to a mass range of 0.455–0.540 ${M}_{\odot }$. Our best-fit model has a temperature of 23,650 K and a mass of 0.5706 ${M}_{\odot }$. That is slightly more massive than what is suggested by the most recent spectroscopy. We find a pure helium layer mass of 10–5.50, consistent with the result of previous studies and the outward diffusion of helium over time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photometric redshifts and intrinsic alignments: Degeneracies and biases in the 3 × 2 pt analysis

We present a systematic study of cosmological parameter bias in weak lensing and large-scale structure analyses for upcoming imaging surveys induced by the interplay of intrinsic alignments (IA) and photometric redshift (photo-z) model misspecification error. We first examine the degeneracies between the parameters of the tidal alignment–tidal torquing (TATT) model for IA and of a photo-z model including a mean shift ( Δ z ¯ ) and variance ( σ z ) for each tomographic bin of lenses and sources, under a variety of underlying true IA behaviors. We identify strong degeneracies between: (1) the redshift scaling of the tidal alignment amplitude and the mean shift and variances of source bins, (2) the redshift scaling of the tidal torquing amplitude and the variance of the lowest- z source bin, and (3) the IA source density weighting and the mean shift and variance of several source bins. We then use this information to guide our exploration of the level of cosmological parameter bias which can be induced given incorrect modeling of IA, photo-z, or both. We find that marginalizing over all the parameters of TATT is generally sufficient to preclude cosmological parameter bias in the scenarios we consider. However, this does not necessarily mean that IA and photo-z parameters are themselves unbiased, nor does it mean that the best-fit model is a good fit to the data. We also find scenarios where the inferred parameters produce χ d . o . f . 2 values indicative of a good fit but cosmological parameter bias is significant, particularly when the IA source density weighting parameter is not marginalized over. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Perspective on Traditional and Data Driven Electrochemical Modeling and Analysis

To understand the behavior of electrochemical systems, we need to reduce the dimensionality of the measured current-voltage-time (I-V-t) data by fitting models, thus enabling us to analyze and compare the governing physics. Traditionally, the process for this is an 'expert first' approach: defining the model and its explicit assumptions based on inductive reasoning or empirical observation, fitting small portions of the I-V-t data where assumptions are most valid or carefully designing experiments to enforce key assumptions, and then interpreting the model parameters. However, modern data-driven methods enable a new paradigm: a 'data first' approach, where the latent behaviors governing the system's measured response are identified directly using machine-learning models that optimize both model structure and parameters from the I-V-t data, guaranteeing that the learned model explains as much of the observed system response as possible. After model identification, the model can then be interrogated by an expert to connect observed behaviors with underlying physics. This talk will review several different types of electrochemical analysis (electrochemical impedance, differential voltage-capacity, electrochemical kinetics) and compare the traditional and data-driven methods for analyzing the data.

42 ENGINEERING↗