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At least 199 records · Page 11

Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season QPF be Improved?

It is well known that numerical warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts lack significant skill for numerous reasons. Some are related to the model--it may lack physical processes required to realistically simulate convection or the numerical algorithms and dynamics employed may not be adequate. Others are related to initialization-mesoscale features play an important role in convective initialization and atmospheric observation systems are incapable of properly depicting the three-dimensional stability structure at the mesoscale. The purpose of this study is to determine if a mesoscale model initialized with a diabatic initialization scheme can improve short-term (0 to 12h) warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Southeastern United States. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory is used to diabatically initialize the Pennsylvania State University/National center for Atmospheric Research (PSUNCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The SPORT Center runs LAPS operationally on an hourly cycle to produce analyses on a 15 km covering the eastern 2/3 of the United States. The 20 km National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Rapid Update Cycle analyses are used for the background fields. Standard observational data are acquired from MADIS with GOES/CRAFT Nexrad data acquired from in-house feeds. The MM5 is configured on a 140 x 140 12 km grid centered on Huntsville Alabama. Preliminary results indicate that MM5 runs initialized with LAPS produce improved 6 and 12h QPF threat scores compared with those initialized with the NCEP RUC.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Region-based convolutional neural network for wind turbine wake characterization from scanning lidars

A convolutional neural network is applied to lidar scan images from three experimental campaigns to identify and characterize wind turbine wakes. Initially developed as a proof-of-concept model and applied to a single data set in complex terrain, the model is now improved and generalized and applied to two other unique lidar data sets, one located near an escarpment and one located offshore. The model, initially developed using lidar scans collected in predominantly westerly flow, exhibits sensitivity to wind flow direction. The model is thus successfully generalized through implementing a standard rotation process to scan images before input into the convolutional neural network to ensure the flow is westerly. The sample size of lidar scans used to train the model is increased, and along with the generalization process, these changes to the model are shown to enhance accuracy and robustness when characterizing dissipating and asymmetric wakes. Applied to the offshore data set in which nearly 20 wind turbine wakes are included per scan, the improved model exhibits a 95% success rate in characterizing wakes and a 74% success rate in characterizing dissipating wake fragments. The improved model is shown to generalize well to the two new data sets, although an increase in wake characterization accuracy is offset by an increase in model sensitivity and false positive wake identifications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Development of the INL Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) in the Modelica Eco-System for Validation and Verification

This report provides an overview on the development of the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) in the Modelica process model eco-system at Idaho National Laboratory as part of the integrated energy system initiative. Model development has led to the creation of a dynamic process model of the experimental TEDS facility housed within the Engineering Science Laboratory (ESL) at INL. The model was then used during the pre-construction phase of the experimental effort to inform experimental design (insulation requirements, bypass line placement, expected performance of components) and to test innovative control schemes prior to the initial operation. The TEDS model developed in Modelica includes the primary components of the TEDS experimental unit including: a 200kW Chromalox heater, a single-tank packed bed thermal energy storage system filled with 0.125 inch Alumina (Al 2 O 3 ), an ethylene-glycol to Therminol-66 heat exchanger, system piping, six control valves, and all associated temperature, pressure, and mass flow sensors. The model does not include nitrogen fill gas tanks, or associated overfill tanks, as these are not part of standard system control. Two simulation sets were run. The first is a five-hour test that operates as a shakedown test for the facility. This simulation puts the facility through all five potential operating modes and showcases the ability of valving, control sensors, and component controllers to meet the system demands. The second case imposes a typical summer day demand on the system from a region with mixed commercial and residential electrical needs where the generator alone cannot meet peak demand but instead requires the thermal storage unit to act as a peaking unit. Over the course of the fifteen-hour discharge cycle heat losses account for a heat loss of approximately 15°C in outlet temperature. Such heat losses would lead to a decrease in overall system efficiency and may lead to additional design changes for such designs in the future that may include a topping heater. Through commencement of this work, a systems level model of TEDS with associated control systems, sensors, piping diameters, and component capabilities has been created. This model has been utilized in the pre-experimental phase to inform system design, insulation thicknesses, and potential control schemes to operate the system effectively and safely. Once TEDS begins operation, this model will be refined, tuned, and used for validation and verification purposes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Observation of a single protein by ultrafast X-ray diffraction

* runs/ - The raw data from the pnCCD * histograms.h5 - Histogram of the values recorded by each pixel throughout the data acquisition. Used for pedestal and gain correction. * mask.h5 - Detector bad pixels mask. * 1SS8.pdb - PDB model of the assembled GroEL 14-mer, from the 1SS8 PDB entry. * 1SS8_H2O.pdb - Hydrated version of the assembled GroEL 14-mer, derived from the 1SS8 PDB entry. The various hydrated models are created by removing water from this initial model. * rotations.h5 - Quaternions of the rotations used for template matching

European XFEL↗

Loss terms in free-piston Stirling engine models

Various models for free piston Stirling engines are reviewed. Initial models were developed primarily for design purposes and to predict operating parameters, especially efficiency. More recently, however, such models have been used to predict engine stability. Free piston Stirling engines have no kinematic constraints and stability may not only be sensitive to the load, but also to various nonlinear loss and spring constraints. The present understanding is reviewed of various loss mechanisms for free piston Stirling engines and how they have been incorporated into engine models is discussed.

Gordon, Lloyd B.↗

Photolysis Rate Coefficient Calculations in Support of SOLVE Campaign

The objectives for this SOLVE project were 3-fold. First, we sought to calculate a complete set of photolysis rate coefficients (j-values) for the campaign along the ER-2 and DC-8 flight tracks. En route to this goal, it would be necessary to develop a comprehensive set of input geophysical conditions (e.g., ozone profiles), derived from various climatological, aircraft, and remotely sensed datasets, in order to model the radiative transfer of the atmosphere accurately. These j-values would then need validation by comparison with flux-derived j-value measurements. The second objective was to analyze chemistry along back trajectories using the NASA/Goddard chemistry trajectory model initialized with measurements of trace atmospheric constituents. This modeling effort would provide insight into the completeness of current measurements and the chemistry of Arctic wintertime ozone loss. Finally, we sought to coordinate stellar occultation measurements of ozone (and thus ozone loss) during SOLVE using the Midcourse Space Experiment(MSX)/Ultraviolet and Visible Imagers and Spectrographic Imagers (UVISI) satellite instrument. Such measurements would determine ozone loss during the Arctic polar night and represent the first significant science application of space-based stellar occultation in the Earth's atmosphere.

Lloyd, Steven A.↗

Photolysis Rate Coefficient Calculations in Support of SOLVE Campaign

The objectives for this SOLVE project were 3-fold. First, we sought to calculate a complete set of photolysis rate coefficients (j-values) for the campaign along the ER-2 and DC-8 flight tracks. En route to this goal, it would be necessary to develop a comprehensive set of input geophysical conditions (e.g., ozone profiles), derived from various climatological, aircraft, and remotely sensed datasets, in order to model the radiative transfer of the atmosphere accurately. These j-values would then need validation by comparison with flux-derived j-value measurements. The second objective was to analyze chemistry along back trajectories using the NASA/Goddard chemistry trajectory model initialized with measurements of trace atmospheric constituents. This modeling effort would provide insight into the completeness of current measurements and the chemistry of Arctic wintertime ozone loss. Finally, we sought to coordinate stellar occultation measurements of ozone (and thus ozone loss) during SOLVE using the MSX/UVISI satellite instrument. Such measurements would determine ozone loss during the Arctic polar night and represent the first significant science application of space-based stellar occultation in the Earth's atmosphere.

Lloyd, Steven A.↗

Acoustic-Modal Testing of the Ares I Launch Abort System Attitude Control Motor Valve

The Attitude Control Motor (ACM) is being developed for use in the Launch Abort System (LAS) of NASA's Ares I launch vehicle. The ACM consists of a small solid rocket motor and eight actuated pintle valves that directionally allocate.thrust_- 1t.has-been- predicted-that significant unsteady. pressure.fluctuations.will.exist. inside the-valves during operation. The dominant frequencies of these oscillations correspond to the lowest several acoustic natural frequencies of the individual valves. An acoustic finite element model of the fluid volume inside the valve has been critical to the prediction of these frequencies and their associated mode shapes. This work describes an effort to experimentally validate the acoustic finite model of the valve with an acoustic modal test. The modal test involved instrumenting a flight-like valve with six microphones and then exciting the enclosed air with a loudspeaker. The loudspeaker was configured to deliver broadband noise at relatively high sound pressure levels. The aquired microphone signals were post-processed and compared to results generated from the acoustic finite element model. Initial comparisons between the test data and the model results revealed that additional model refinement was necessary. Specifically, the model was updated to implement a complex impedance boundary condition at the entrance to the valve supply tube. This boundary condition models the frequency-dependent impedance that an acoustic wave will encounter as it reaches the end of the supply tube. Upon invoking this boundary condition, significantly improved agreement between the test data and the model was realized.

Davis, R. Benjamin↗

Multidecadal Changes in the UTLS Ozone from the MERRA-2 Reanalysis and the GMI Chemistry Model

Long-term changes of ozone in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere) reflect the response to decreases in the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting substances as well as changes in the stratospheric circulation induced by climate change. To date, studies of UTLS ozone changes and variability have relied mainly on satellite and in-situ observations as well as chemistry-climate model simulations. By comparison, the potential of reanalysis ozone data remains relatively untapped. This is despite evidence from recent studies, including detailed analyses conducted under SPARC (Scalable Processor Architecture) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), that demonstrate that stratospheric ozone fields from modern atmospheric reanalyses exhibit good agreement with independent data while delineating issues related to inhomogeneities in the assimilated observations. In this presentation, we will explore the possibility of inferring long-term geographically and vertically resolved behavior of the lower stratospheric (LS) ozone from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications -2) reanalysis after accounting for the few known discontinuities and gaps in its assimilated input data. This work builds upon previous studies that have documented excellent agreement between MERRA-2 ozone and ozonesonde observations in the LS. Of particular importance is a relatively good vertical resolution of MERRA-2 allowing precise separation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone contents. We also compare the MERRA-2 LS ozone results with the recently completed 37-year simulation produced using Goddard Earth Observing System in "replay" mode coupled with the GMI (Global Modeling Initiative) chemistry mechanism. Replay mode dynamically constrains the model with the MERRA-2 reanalysis winds, temperature, and pressure. We will emphasize the areas of agreement of the reanalysis and replay and interpret differences between them in the context of our increasing understanding of model transport driven by assimilated winds.

Ozone↗

A Multi-Satellite Assimilation and Modeling Platform to Construct a Global and Complete view of the Hydrologic Cycle

What captivates me about the research field of satellite remote sensing of the earth system science is the opportunity to help human beings by addressing challenging questions related to the current and future availability of natural resources for domestic, agricultural, and industrial needs. For example, a continuously varying climate poses a threat to the water resource, not only in developing countries, but also in economically well-developed regions, creating the urgent need to characterize and predict its spatial and temporal availability. Specifically, my curiosity is driven by the challenge of merging cutting-edge space technology and earth observations (i.e., remote sensing) with state-of-the-art models for the purpose of improving our scientific knowledge about the variability and the change of the hydrologic cycle.The only practical way to observe the land surface processes (e.g., hydrologic cycle) on continental to global scales is via satellite remote sensing. Though remote sensing can make spatially comprehensive measurements of various components of the land surface system, it cannot provide direct information on the entire system, and the measurements represent only a snapshot in time. Physical based models may be used to continuously predict the temporal and spatial earth processes, but these predictions are often poor, due to model initialization, parameter and meteorological forcing errors, and inadequate model physics and/or resolution. Thus, an attractive prospect is to combine the strengths of land surface models and observations (and minimize the weaknesses of both) to provide a superior land surface state estimate. This is the goal of land surface data assimilation. Data assimilation provides a better estimate of the environmental states than either models or observations could individually do. The broad concept of data assimilation can be applied to various disciplines such as hydrology, ecology, environmental hazards, agriculture and economy.My research is targeted to integrating multiple satellite information having multi-sensor and multi-resolution assimilation within today's state-of-the-art hydrologic models. Multi-sensor and multi-resolution assimilation techniques represent a necessary milestone in future earth science applications because they offer the capability of comprehensively integrating disparate types of earth observations via deep-learning techniques. A multi-satellite assimilation and modeling platform will ultimately provide a robust and complete dataset to more fully understand earth's dynamics. In fact, the multi-satellite assimilation platforms build a comprehensive description of the earth processes that is geared toward accurately representing the complexity of natural and anthropogenic interactions in land surface processes. Most importantly, these platforms are suitable as decision support tools for applications across different aspects of earth system science.My recent work has focused on recent multi-sensor data assimilation techniques targeted at improving snow, soil moisture, groundwater, and terrestrial water storage hydrological states.

Girotto, Manuela↗

Modeling Molten Salt Spreading and Heat Transfer using MELTSPREAD – An Uncertainty Analysis

This report summarizes spreading and heat transfer results for molten salt pouring onto a flat stainless steel substrate that were calculated using MELTSPREAD to gain insight into bulk salt behavior during a molten salt spill accident. MELTSPREAD was developed at Argonne to model the one-dimensional flow and freezing behavior of molten corium and is being applied to model molten salts for the first time as part of this work. An uncertainty analysis of thermophysical properties and spill conditions was performed using MELTSPREAD to determine which properties and conditions have the greatest impact on model outcome. The model was run with and without the inclusion of decay heat. Eutectic FLiNaK was used as the salt composition because it is well-characterized and appropriate for model development. Small salt volumes were used for the initial model runs described in this report so that the model results can be compared to the results from ongoing experiments on molten salt spreading and heat transfer currently being conducted at Argonne at a benchtop scale. The spreading of a small volume of FLiNaK (50 mL) was found to be limited by the balance between the molten salt surface tension and gravity and not by freezing for the pour conditions and assumed mechanisms of heat transfer in the model. Heat transfer from the salt was highly inefficient to due to its low thermal conductivity, high heat capacity, and high heat of fusion and varying these properties had no effect on the spreading behavior. Changing the viscosity and density of the salt slightly affected the spreading behavior. Setting the salt surface tension to approximately zero to simulate the salt wetting the substrate had the greatest effect on the spreading behavior and this increased both the spreading velocity and overall spreading area. Including decay heat in the model had a significant effect on the long-term cooling behavior of the salt but had no effect on the overall spreading behavior. Future effort should involve modeling a larger volume of molten salt to represent a reactor case spill scenario because the spreading behavior of large volumes of salt may differ from the small volumes that were the focus of this document.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Models and Strategies for Optimal Demand Side Management in the Chemical Industries

Deregulation and the increase of renewable electricity generation from wind and solar photovoltaics have transformed the U.S. electricity market. Economic and environmental benefits notwithstanding, the presence of renewables has increased variability and uncertainty on the supply side of the grid. Managing demand, rather than generation – a strategy referred to as “demand response (DR)” – is an attractive approach for mitigating this imbalance. DR efforts aim to reduce electricity usage during peak demand times, lessening stress on the grid. Industrial users are particularly attractive entities for DR participation since they present large, localized loads that can provide significant relief on grid demand and –unlike other large loads, such as buildings – are minimally dependent on human needs and preferences. In this project, we accomplished three main objectives. (1) We developed data-driven low-order DR scheduling-relevant dynamic models of chemical processes. Concurrently, we studied the formulation and solution of the associated optimal DR production scheduling problems. (a) A prototype air separation unit (ASU) model was used to generate simulated operating data for initial modeling efforts, which enabled the later use of industrial data for data-driven modeling. (b) We utilized Hammerstein-Wiener (HW) and Finite Step Response (FSR) models to represent nonlinear plant dynamics. (c) The HW models were linearized using exact linearization so they could potentially be embedded in power system models, which are formulated as mixed integer linear programs (MILPs). (d) We solved DR optimization problems under uncertainty and found that even naïve predictions of electricity price and product demand led to significant cost savings benefits. (2) Our DR scheduling optimization problem formulations are amenable to real-time solution. (a) We utilized Lagrangian Relaxation (LR) to efficiently solve the optimization problem by decoupling subproblems linked by complicating constraints. (b) We have achieved computation times for the 3-day DR scheduling problem of an ASU as low as 1.88 minutes. (3) Our representations of the DR behavior of chemical process as grid-level batteries were embedded in power system models. (a) For a small-scale grid, we found that incorporating the dynamics of the chemical plant in the optimal power flow calculations resulted in better resource management leading to up to 15% and 46% cost reduction for the grid and chemical plant operations, respectively, during periods of power line congestion. We have published several works dedicated to modeling and solving DR optimization problems from the user side. These were published in top peer-reviewed journals and are summarized in this report. The most recent work (and papers in preparation) considers DR scheduling from the grid side. Future efforts will consider networked plants (e.g., air separation units operating on a common pipeline) for DR participation, which is expected to amplify the capabilities of industrial DR participants to perform load-shifting. Our consideration of uncertainty in DR has inspired future directions in this area as well: we plan to develop multistage methods to fully account for the effects of uncertainty in DR scheduling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Effects of diffusion and mass flows on C IV and Si IV lines formed in the solar atmosphere

A model for the transition region is derived from an initial interpretation of EUV observations, assuming ionization equilibrium and constant elemental abundance with height. The effects of diffusion and mass flows are then included in the initial model and the emergent profiles of several C IV and Si IV lines are computed. It is found that diffusion and mass flows have a strong effect on both the emergent intensity and spectral shape of these lines. Diffusion acts to deplete the transition region of heavy ions to an extent which depends on the detailed temperature and density structure. The net effect is a weighting of the coronal emission relative to that in the transition. On the basis of the results, it is suggested that the downflows observed in the network in lines of C IV and Si IV could be due to gravitational settling of the ions following their injection, via diffusion, into the corona from spicules. When flows are superposed on the basic diffusion model, the rapid change in elemental abundance characteristic of the model is virtually eliminated and the coronal contribution to the emission in C IV and Si IV lines becomes negligible relative to that in the transition region. Flows have a strong effect on the computed line intensities and introduce large asymmetries into the line shapes.

Roussel-Dupre, R.↗

Evaluation of Observed and Modelled Aerosol Lifetimes Using Radioactive Tracers of Opportunity and an Ensemble of 19 Global Models

Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (Cs-137) and xenon-133 (Xe-133) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. Cs-137 size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, Cs-137 can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas Xe-133 behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of Cs-137that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and Xe-133 emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled Cs-137and Xe-133 concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime e, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95% confidence interval 13.1-15.7 days). The equivalent modelled e lifetimes have a large spread, varying between 4.8 and 26.7 days with a model median of 9.42.3 days, indicating too fast a removal in most models. Because sufficient measurement data were only available from about 2 weeks after the release, the estimated lifetimes apply to aerosols that have undergone long-range transport, i.e. not for freshly emitted aerosol. However, modelled instantaneous lifetimes show that the initial removal in the first 2 weeks was quicker (lifetimes between 1 and 5 days) due to the emissions occurring at low altitudes and co-location of the fresh plume with strong precipitation. Deviations between measured and modelled aerosol lifetimes are largest for the northernmost stations and at later time periods, suggesting that models do not transport enough of the aerosol towards the Arctic. The models underestimate passive tracer (Xe-133) concentrations in the Arctic as well but to a smaller extent than for the aerosol (Cs-137) tracer. This indicates that in addition to too fast an aerosol removal in the models, errors in simulated atmospheric transport towards the Arctic in most models also contribute to the underestimation of the Arctic aerosol concentrations.

Radioactive isotopes↗

GMI-IPS: Python Processing Software for Aircraft Campaigns

NASA's Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) seeks to understand the impact of anthropogenic air pollution on gases in the Earth's atmosphere. Four flight campaigns are being deployed on a seasonal basis to establish a continuous global-scale data set intended to improve the representation of chemically reactive gases in global atmospheric chemistry models. The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI), is creating chemical transport simulations on a global scale for each of the ATom flight campaigns. To meet the computational demands required to translate the GMI simulation data to grids associated with the flights from the ATom campaigns, the GMI ICARTT Processing Software (GMI-IPS) has been developed and is providing key functionality for data processing and analysis in this ongoing effort. The GMI-IPS is written in Python and provides computational kernels for data interpolation and visualization tasks on GMI simulation data. A key feature of the GMI-IPS, is its ability to read ICARTT files, a text-based file format for airborne instrument data, and extract the required flight information that defines regional and temporal grid parameters associated with an ATom flight. Perhaps most importantly, the GMI-IPS creates ICARTT files containing GMI simulated data, which are used in collaboration with ATom instrument teams and other modeling groups. The initial main task of the GMI-IPS is to interpolate GMI model data to the finer temporal resolution (1-10 seconds) of a given flight. The model data includes basic fields such as temperature and pressure, but the main focus of this effort is to provide species concentrations of chemical gases for ATom flights. The software, which uses parallel computation techniques for data intensive tasks, linearly interpolates each of the model fields to the time resolution of the flight. The temporally interpolated data is then saved to disk, and is used to create additional derived quantities. In order to translate the GMI model data to the spatial grid of the flight path as defined by the pressure, latitude, and longitude points at each flight time record, a weighted average is then calculated from the nearest neighbors in two dimensions (latitude, longitude). Using SciPya's Regular Grid Interpolator, interpolation functions are generated for the GMI model grid and the calculated weighted averages. The flight path points are then extracted from the ATom ICARTT instrument file, and are sent to the multi-dimensional interpolating functions to generate GMI field quantities along the spatial path of the flight. The interpolated field quantities are then written to a ICARTT data file, which is stored for further manipulation. The GMI-IPS is aware of a generic ATom ICARTT header format, containing basic information for all flight campaigns. The GMI-IPS includes logic to edit metadata for the derived field quantities, as well as modify the generic header data such as processing dates and associated instrument files. The ICARTT interpolated data is then appended to the modified header data, and the ICARTT processing is complete for the given flight and ready for collaboration. The output ICARTT data adheres to the ICARTT file format standards V1.1. The visualization component of the GMI-IPS uses Matplotlib extensively and has several functions ranging in complexity. First, it creates a model background curtain for the flight (time versus model eta levels) with the interpolated flight data superimposed on the curtain. Secondly, it creates a time-series plot of the interpolated flight data. Lastly, the visualization component creates averaged 2D model slices (longitude versus latitude) with overlaid flight track circles at key pressure levels. The GMI-IPS consists of a handful of classes and supporting functionality that have been generalized to be compatible with any ICARTT file that adheres to the base class definition. The base class represents a generic ICARTT entry, only defining a single time entry and 3D spatial positioning parameters. Other classes inherit from this base class; several classes for input ICARTT instrument files, which contain the necessary flight positioning information as a basis for data processing, as well as other classes for output ICARTT files, which contain the interpolated model data. Utility classes provide functionality for routine procedures such as: comparing field names among ICARTT files, reading ICARTT entries from a data file and storing them in data structures, and returning a reduced spatial grid based on a collection of ICARTT entries. Although the GMI-IPS is compatible with GMI model data, it can be adapted with reasonable effort for any simulation that creates Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) files. The same can be said of its adaptability to ICARTT files outside of the context of the ATom mission. The GMI-IPS contains just under 30,000 lines of code, eight classes, and a dozen drivers and utility programs. It is maintained with GIT source code management and has been used to deliver processed GMI model data for the ATom campaigns that have taken place to date.

Damon, M. R.↗

Observing and Projecting the Lasting Fate of the Hunga Eruption on Atmospheric Water Vapor and Hydroxyl Radical

On 15th Jan. 2022 the submarine Hunga volcano erupted injecting approximately 0.5 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, but more significantly added 150-170 Tg of water vapor to the stratospheric background (over a 10% perturbation) in a matter of several hours. The sulfur dioxide rapidly converted to sulfate aerosol and along with water vapor, was transported around the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics into midlatitudes and beyond with some transport into the Northern Hemisphere. With a much longer lifetime than sulfate aerosol, measurable water vapor mass anomalies have persisted with only small losses over more than 2 years since the eruption and are likely to continue above background for the remainder of the decade. Satellite measurements from limb and nadir viewing observing instruments provide the information needed to reasonably initialize the Hunga eruption in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model using the “replay” framework coupled to the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) stratosphere-troposphere chemical mechanism for the recent past and have continued the simulations into the future with the free running chemistry climate model (CCM). Using a number of model ensemble members together with the satellite observations, we quantify how the Hunga eruption is perturbing atmospheric composition and climate and projecting the influences to come as the enhanced water vapor continues in the stratosphere with only very slow removal mechanisms. Modeling suggests that the water rich eruption enhanced stratospheric hydroxyl radiacal (OH) and is supported by the speed of the observed conversion of SO2 into sulfate aerosol. These simulations also suggest a significant reduction in tropospheric OH over the mid-high latitude Southern Hemisphere, which has implications for numerous species that are impacted by this radical. The Hunga eruption provides a useful test of chemistry climate models and an opportunity for observation-based process understanding and in making new connections.

Hunga volcano↗

A Technique for Assimilating GOES-Derived Land Surface Products into Regional Models to Improve the Representation of Land Surface Forcing

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. An advantage of this technique for short-range forecasts is that it does not require a complex land-surface formulation within the atmospheric model. As a result, the need to specify poorly known soil and vegetative characteristics is eliminated. The GOES assimilation technique has been incorporated into the PSU/NCAR MM5. Results will be presented to demonstrate the ability of the assimilation scheme to improve short-term simulations of near-surface air temperature and mixing ratio during the warm season for several selected cases during June of 1995 and June 1997 which exhibit a variety of atmospheric and land-surface conditions. In addition, the simulations produced by the assimilation technique will be compared with those produced by the MM5/BATS coupled model initialized with soil water content derived from a soil hydrology model.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Challenges in Understanding Radiation Belt Dynamics: Insights from Two Storm Periods

The periods of May 27 - June 5, 2017 and Oct 24 — 29, 2016 are 'unusual' in terms of radiation belt dynamics and their solar wind driving conditions. The first period was under the influence of a slow CME-led major geomagnetic storm with Dstmin = -125 nT and the second period was under high speed solar wind streams. Observations from Van Allen Probes show great variabilities in different electron energy channels for both periods. During the second period of Oct 24 - 29, 2016, electron fluxes are found to be near the highest upper limit among various storms during 2013–2018 (Hua, Bortnik and Ma, 2022). In this paper, we provide solar wind sources and geomagnetic conditions for these two storm periods and point out challenges in understanding, modeling, and forecasting radiation belt dynamics. In-depth analysis of modeling results utilizing radiation belt models available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center such as VERB and CIMI will be performed. Initial modeling results indicate rather large discrepancies with the observations. Model validation using different metrics introduced in Zheng et al. (2019) will be carried out to gain a deeper understanding of the physical processes involved and to identity potential causes of modeling inadequacies.

Yihua Zheng↗