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NASA NTRS2012

Modeling of Damage Initiation and Progression in a SiC/SiC Woven Ceramic Matrix Composite

The goal of an ongoing project at NASA Glenn is to investigate the effects of the complex microstructure of a woven ceramic matrix composite and its variability on the effective properties and the durability of the material. Detailed analysis of these complex microstructures may provide clues for the material scientists who `design the material? or to structural analysts and designers who `design with the material? regarding damage initiation and damage propagation. A model material system, specifically a five-harness satin weave architecture CVI SiC/SiC composite composed of Sylramic-iBN fibers and a SiC matrix, has been analyzed. Specimens of the material were serially sectioned and polished to capture the detailed images of fiber tows, matrix and porosity. Open source analysis tools were used to isolate various constituents and finite elements models were then generated from simplified models of those images. Detailed finite element analyses were performed that examine how the variability in the local microstructure affected the macroscopic behavior as well as the local damage initiation and progression. Results indicate that the locations where damage initiated and propagated is linked to specific microstructural features.

Mital, Subodh K.↗

NASA NTRS1982

On the stability of Schwarzschild's triaxial galaxy model

The numerical model for a triaxial galaxy constructed by Schwartzschild (1979) has been tested by means of fully self-consistent three-dimensional n-body numerical experiments that use a representation of this model to start the integration. The integration, study models, initial load, and correcting potential of the experiment are detailed. Preliminary checks included density values, potential values, and integration in potential of an ideal model. The results showed some particle loss and no significant shape change. The model is rugged and robust, and no growing disturbances with growth rate in excess of 0.5 per crossing time could be detected. Runs were done at 50 percent excess halo and with tube orbits reversed.

Smith, B. F.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A comparison of observed and forecast energetics over North America

The observed kinetic energy balance is calculated over North America and compared with that computed from forecast fields for the 13-15 January 1979 cyclone. The FGGE upper-air rawinsonde network serves as the observational database while the forecast energetics are derived from a numerical integration with the GLAS fourth-order general circulation model initialized at 00 GMT 13 January. Maps of the observed and predicted kinetic energy and eddy conversion are in good qualitative agreement, although the model eddy conversion tends to be 2 to 3 times stronger than the observed values. Both the forecast and observations exhibit the lower and upper tropospheric maxima in vertical profiles of kinetic energy generation and dissipation typically found in cyclonic disturbances. An interesting time lag is noted in the observational analysis with the maximum observed kinetic energy occurring 12 h later than the maximum eddy conversion over the same region.

Baker, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. Each has benefited from 3-dimensional analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive and complete understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Recent efforts have been undertaken to update the LDIS through the formal tasking process of NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit. The goals include upgrading LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporating new sources of observational data, and making adjustments to shell scripts written to govern the system. A series of scripts run a complete modeling system consisting of the preprocessing step, the main model integration, and the post-processing step. The preprocessing step prepares the terrain, surface characteristics data sets, and the objective analysis for model initialization. Data ingested through ADAS include (but are not limited to) Level II Weather Surveillance Radar- 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from six Florida radars, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) visible and infrared satellite imagery, surface and upper air observations throughout Florida from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division/Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS), as well as the Kennedy Space Center ICape Canaveral Air Force Station wind tower network. The scripts provide NWS MLB and SMG with several options for setting a desirable runtime configuration of the LDIS to account for adjustments in grid spacing, domain location, choice of observational data sources, and selection of background model fields, among others. The utility of an improved LDIS will be demonstrated through postanalysis warm and cool season case studies that compare high-resolution model output with and without the ADAS analyses. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

Watson, Leela R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of UTLS Carbon Monoxide Simulations in GMI and GEOS-Chem Chemical Transport Models using Aura MLS Observations

This study evaluates the distribution and variation of carbon monoxide (CO) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during 2004-2012 as simulated by two chemical transport models, using the latest version of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations. The simulated spatial distributions, temporal variations and vertical transport of CO in the UTLS region are compared with those observed by MLS. We also investigate the impact of surface emissions and deep convection on CO concentrations in the UTLS over different regions, using both model simulations and MLS observations. Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) and GEOS-Chem simulations of UTLS CO both show similar spatial distributions to observations. The global mean CO values simulated by both models agree with MLS observations at 215 and 147 hPa, but are significantly underestimated by more than 40% at 100 hPa. In addition, the models underestimate the peak CO values by up to 70% at 100 hPa, 60% at 147 hPa and 40% at 215 hPa, with GEOS-Chem generally simulating more CO at 100 hPa and less CO at 215 hPa than GMI. The seasonal distributions of CO simulated by both models are in better agreement with MLS in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), with disagreements between model and observations over enhanced CO regions such as southern Africa. The simulated vertical transport of CO shows better agreement with MLS in the tropics and the SH subtropics than the NH subtropics. We also examine regional variations in the relationships among surface CO emission, convection and UTLS CO concentrations. The two models exhibit emission-convection- CO relationships similar to those observed by MLS over the tropics and some regions with enhanced UTLS CO.

spatial distribution↗

NASA NTRS2010

4-D Cloud Water Content Fields Derived from Operational Satellite Data

In order to improve operational safety and efficiency, the transportation industry, including aviation, has an urgent need for accurate diagnoses and predictions of clouds and associated weather conditions. Adverse weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System. The Federal Aviation Administration has determined that as much as two thirds of weather-related delays are potentially avoidable with better weather information and roughly 20% of all aviation accidents are weather related. Thus, it is recognized that an important factor in meeting the goals of the Next Generation Transportation System (NexGen) vision is the improved integration of weather information. The concept of a 4-D weather cube is being developed to address that need by integrating observed and forecasted weather information into a shared 4-D database, providing an integrated and nationally consistent weather picture for a variety of users and to support operational decision support systems. Weather analyses and forecasts derived using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are a critical tool that forecasters rely on for guidance and also an important element in current and future decision support systems. For example, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the recently implemented Rapid Refresh (RR) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) models provide high frequency forecasts and are key elements of the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program. Because clouds play a crucial role in the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere, they must be adequately accounted for in NWP models. The RUC, for example, cycles at full resolution five cloud microphysical species (cloud water, cloud ice, rain, snow, and graupel) and has the capability of updating these fields from observations. In order to improve the models initial state and subsequent forecasts, cloud top altitude (or temperature, T(sub c)) derived from operational satellite data, surface observations of cloud base altitude, radar reflectivity, and lightning data are used to help build and remove clouds in the models assimilation system. Despite this advance and the many recent advances made in our understanding of cloud physical processes and radiative effects, many problems remain in adequately representing clouds in models. While the assimilation of cloud top information derived from operational satellite data has merit, other information is available that has not yet been exploited. For example, the vertically integrated cloud water content (CWC) or cloud water path (CWP) and cloud geometric thickness (delta Z) are standard products being derived routinely from operational satellite data. These and other cloud products have been validated under a variety of conditions. Since the uncertainties have generally been found to be less than those found in model analyses and forecasts, the satellite products should be suitable for data assimilation, provided an appropriate strategy can be developed that links the satellite-derived cloud parameters with cloud parameters specified in the model. In this paper, we briefly outline such a strategy and describe a methodology to retrieve cloud water content profiles from operational satellite data. Initial results and future plans are presented. It is expected that the direct assimilation of this new product will provide the most accurate depiction of the vertical distribution of cloud water ever produced at the high spatial and temporal resolution needed for short term weather analyses and forecasts.

Smith, William L., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Temperature Dependent Modal Test/Analysis Correlation of X-34 Fastrac Composite Rocket Nozzle

A unique high temperature modal test and model correlation/update program has been performed on the composite nozzle of the FASTRAC engine for the NASA X-34 Reusable Launch Vehicle. The program was required to provide an accurate high temperature model of the nozzle for incorporation into the engine system structural dynamics model for loads calculation; this model is significantly different from the ambient case due to the large decrease in composite stiffness properties due to heating. The high-temperature modal test was performed during a hot-fire test of the nozzle. Previously, a series of high fidelity modal tests and finite element model correlation of the nozzle in a free-free configuration had been performed. This model was then attached to a modal-test verified model of the engine hot-fire test stand and the ambient system mode shapes were identified. A reduced set of accelerometers was then attached to the nozzle, the engine fired full-duration, and the frequency peaks corresponding to the ambient nozzle modes individually isolated and tracked as they decreased during the test. To update the finite-element model of the nozzle to these frequency curves, the percentage differences of the anisotropic composite moduli due to temperature variation from ambient, which had been used in the initial modeling and which were obtained by small sample coupon testing, were multiplied by an iteratively determined constant factor. These new properties were used to create high-temperature nozzle models corresponding to 10 second engine operation increments and tied into the engine system model for loads determination.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere. Part 2: Validation of Large-Scale Transport and Evaluation of Climate Response

Here we examine the large‐scale transport characteristics of the new ``Middle Atmosphere" NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model (E2.2). First we evaluate the stratospheric transport circulation in historical atmosphere‐only simulations integrated with interactive trace gas and aerosol chemistry. Compared to lower vertical resolution model versions, E2.2 exhibits improved tropical ascent and older stratospheric mean ages that are more consistent with observed values. In the troposphere, poleward transport to the Arctic and interhemispheric mean ages in E2.2 are comparable to models participating in the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative. In addition to validating E2.2 we also assess its ``transport sensitivity" using the coupled atmosphere‐ocean abrupt 4xCO2 and transient 1%CO2 simulations submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, along with a 2xCO2 simulation used to evaluate the linearity of the transport circulation's response to increased CO2. We show that decreases (increases) in a stratospheric mean age (idealized surface loss) tracer scale linearly with increased lower stratospheric upwelling, which also increases linearly with warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Abrupt 2xCO2 and 4xCO2 experiments constrained with (fixed) pre‐industrial SSTs are also used to quantify the relative importance of rapid adjustments versus SST feedbacks to the transport circulation responses in the model. Finally, sensitivity experiments are presented to illustrate the impact of changes in the convective parameterization on stratospheric transport.

GISS Model E2.2↗

NASA NTRS1989

Stochastic modeling of crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions

A simplified stochastic model is proposed for crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. Material inhomogeneity provides the random nature of crack initiation and early growth. In the model, the influence of microstructure is introduced by the variability of: (1) damage accumulation along grain boundaries, (2) critical damage required for crack initiation or growth, and (3) the grain-boundary length. The probabilities of crack initiation and growth are derived by using convolution integrals. The model is calibrated and used to predict the crack density and crack-growth rate of short cracks of 304 stainless steel under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. The mean-crack initiation lives are predicted to be within an average deviation of about 10 percent from the experimental results. The predicted cumulative distributions of crack-growth rate follow the experimental data closely. The applicability of the simplified stochastic model is discussed and the future research direction is outlined.

Kitamura, Takayuki↗

NASA NTRS1992

Stochastic modeling of crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions

A simplified stochastic model is proposed for crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. Material inhomogeneity provides the random nature of crack initiation and early growth. In the model, the influence of microstructure is introduced by the variability of: (1) damage accumulation along grain boundaries, (2) critical damage required for crack initiation or growth, and (3) the grain-boundary length. The probabilities of crack initiation and growth are derived by using convolution integrals. The model is calibrated and used to predict the crack density and crack-growth rate of short cracks of 304 stainless steel under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. The mean-crack initiation lives are predicted to be within an average deviation of about 10 percent from the experimental results. The predicted comulative distributions of crack-growth rate follow the experimental data closely. The applicability of the simplified stochastic model is discussed and the future research direction is outlined.

Kitamura, Takayuki↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Ensemble Investigation of the Causes for Regional Air-Quality Model Critical Load Exceedances Prediction Variability in European and North American Domains Using Diagnostics From Phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative

We summarize tentative findings from multi air quality model ensembles for the years 2009 and 2010 in Europe (EU), and 2010 and 2016 in North America (NA), under AQMEII-4. The model predictions of sulphur and nitrogen deposition were used to estimate exceedances of critical loads for acidification and eutrophication, to show the extent to which the ensemble members agree in the magnitude and the trend of ecologically meaningful impacts. Model exceedance variability was analyzed using AQMEII-4 diagnostics. Evaluation against concentration and wet deposition observations, coupled with these diagnostics, identified specific process representations as the causes for variability between model predictions and for reduced model performance. All models predicted reductions in ecosystem acidification impacts in North America between the years 2010 and 2016, in accord with SO2 emissions reduction legislation which started in 2010 (SO2 SIP) However, all models in EU and NA domains had net negative biases for wet deposition of sulphur and nitrogen relative to observations. The wet S deposition average mean bias for the NA ensemble was -0.17 eq ha-1 d-1, and for the EU ensemble -1.15 eq ha-1 d-1. The NA daily wet deposition average mean bias for NH4+ was -0.37 eq ha-1d-1; EU -1.19 eq ha-1 d-1. The daily NA wet NO3- deposition average mean bias was -0.24 eq ha-1d-1; EU -0.69 eq ha-1 d-1. The members of the ensemble diverged (factor of 10) in their North American predictions for Ndep and consequently their eutrophication exceedances. The models with the highest eutrophication predictions also predicted the highest levels of gas-phase ammonia dry deposition (standard deviation of ammonia dry deposition flux across ensemble members was larger than the ensemble average). These models also had negative biases of predicted ammonia concentrations; average mean biases of -0.63 (satellite NH3) and -0.85 ppbv (surface NH3) compared to ensemble averages of -0.30 and -0.34 ppbv. Diagnostics showed that these differences resulted from the manner in which bidirectional ammonia fluxes were parameterized within these models. The second largest source of NA eutrophication prediction variability were models with positive biases in particulate ammonium and nitrate concentrations, and higher particle nitrogen deposition levels ( particle ammonium concentration bias +0.35 ug m-3; ensemble bias +0.15 ug m-3). We believe two factors may have led to these latter overestimates: higher levels of fine mode particle nitrate formation compared to other models (due to the use of an inorganic heterogeneous chemistry algorithm which did not take base cation chemistry into account), and updates to particle dry deposition velocities carried out in the absence of concurrent updates to wet scavenging algorithms. The relative importance of dry gas, dry particulate, and wet deposition towards total sulphur and nitrogen deposition totals differed between EU and North American domains, though all models had negative biases in wet deposition as noted above. Parallel and subsequent work suggests that multiphase hydrometeor scavenging may improve model wet deposition performance. An increased research focus is recommended for four model processes: multiphase hydrometeor scavenging, ammonia bidirectional fluxes, base cation chemistry and emissions, and particle dry deposition.

regional air-quality model↗

NASA NTRS2008

Saturn's Auroral Response to the Solar Wind: Centrifugal Instability Model

We describe a model initially presented by Sittler et al. [2006] which attempts to explain the global response of Saturn's magnetosphere and its corresponding auroral behavior to variations in the solar wind. The model was derived from published simultaneous Hubble Space Telescope (HST) auroral images and Cassini upstream measurements taken during the month of January 2004. These observations show a direct correlation between solar wind dynamic pressure and (1) auroral brightening toward dawn local time, (2) an increase of rotational movement of auroral features to as much as 75% of the corotation speed, (3) the movement of the auroral oval to higher latitudes and (4) an increase in the intensity of Saturn Kilometric Radiation (SKR). This model is an alternative to the reconnection model of Cowley et al. [2004a,b; 2005] which is more Earth-like while ours stresses rotation. If angular momentum is conserved in a global sense, then when compressed the magnetosphere will tend to spin up and when it expands will tend to spin down. With the plasma sheet outer boundary at L approximates 15 we argue this region to be the dominant source region for the precipitating particles. If radial transport is dominated by centrifugal driven flux tube interchange motions, then when the magnetosphere spins up, outward transport will increase, the precipitating particles will move radially outward and cause the auroral oval to move to higher latitudes as observed. The Kelvin-Helmholtz instability may contribute to the enhanced emission along the dawn meridian as observed by HST. We present this model in the context of presently published observations by Cassini.

Sittler, Edward C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Building a Formal Model of a Human-Interactive System: Insights into the Integration of Formal Methods and Human Factors Engineering

Both the human factors engineering (HFE) and formal methods communities are concerned with finding and eliminating problems with safety-critical systems. This work discusses a modeling effort that leveraged methods from both fields to use model checking with HFE practices to perform formal verification of a human-interactive system. Despite the use of a seemingly simple target system, a patient controlled analgesia pump, the initial model proved to be difficult for the model checker to verify in a reasonable amount of time. This resulted in a number of model revisions that affected the HFE architectural, representativeness, and understandability goals of the effort. If formal methods are to meet the needs of the HFE community, additional modeling tools and technological developments are necessary.

Bolton, Matthew L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Thermal and Fluid Modeling of the CRYogenic Orbital TEstbed (CRYOTE) Ground Test Article (GTA)

The purpose of this study was to anchor thermal and fluid system models to data acquired from a ground test article (GTA) for the CRYogenic Orbital TEstbed - CRYOTE. To accomplish this analysis, it was broken into four primary tasks. These included model development, pre-test predictions, testing support at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC} and post-test correlations. Information from MSFC facilitated the task of refining and correlating the initial models. The primary goal of the modeling/testing/correlating efforts was to characterize heat loads throughout the ground test article. Significant factors impacting the heat loads included radiative environments, multi-layer insulation (MLI) performance, tank fill levels, tank pressures, and even contact conductance coefficients. This paper demonstrates how analytical thermal/fluid networks were established, and it includes supporting rationale for specific thermal responses seen during testing.

Piryk, David↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land-ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

climate models↗

NASA NTRS2015

Pliocene Model Intercomparison (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design

climate change↗

NASA NTRS1975

Design, fabrication and test of a trace contaminant control system

A trace contaminant control system was designed, fabricated, and evaluated to determine suitability of the system concept to future manned spacecraft. Two different models were considered. The load model initially required by the contract was based on the Space Station Prototype (SSP) general specifications SVSK HS4655, reflecting a change from a 9 man crew to a 6 man crew of the model developed in previous phases of this effort. Trade studies and a system preliminary design were accomplished based on this contaminant load, including computer analyses to define the optimum system configuration in terms of component arrangements, flow rates and component sizing. At the completion of the preliminary design effort a revised contaminant load model was developed for the SSP. Additional analyses were then conducted to define the impact of this new contaminant load model on the system configuration. A full scale foam-core mock-up with the appropriate SSP system interfaces was also fabricated.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1981

Combustor liner durability analysis

An 18 month combustor liner durability analysis program was conducted to evaluate the use of advanced three dimensional transient heat transfer and nonlinear stress-strain analyses for modeling the cyclic thermomechanical response of a simulated combustor liner specimen. Cyclic life prediction technology for creep/fatigue interaction is evaluated for a variety of state-of-the-art tools for crack initiation and propagation. The sensitivity of the initiation models to a change in the operating conditions is also assessed.

Moreno, V.↗