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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Interconnection of Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions and Cloud Feedback Through Warm Rain Process

Recent research has revealed a correlation within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations: models exhibiting more pronounced warming due to positive cloud feedback simultaneously show enhanced cooling from aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI). However, the interplay between ACI and cloud feedback is not well understood in these models. Our study addresses this gap by modifying the autoconversion rate in two Earth system models (ESMs), elucidating how ACI could connect with cloud feedback through the warm rain process. We find that higher autoconversion rates, which are associated with stronger ACI, suppress the increase in cloud liquid water path (LWP) and cloud optical depth with warming by enhancing the precipitation efficiency over the extratropical regions, leading to a larger positive cloud feedback. This study offers new insights into the compensatory mechanism between ACI and cloud feedback through the warm rain process and highlights the importance of constraining the autoconversion parameterization in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monthly hydropower generation data for Western Canada to support Western-US interconnect power system studies

Hydroelectric power generation in Western Canada significantly contributes to power grid operations of the North American Western Interconnection through substantial generation, some of which is exported to the United States (U.S.). However, the lack of publicly available hydropower generation datasets poses challenges for future market projections and resource adequacy evaluations. We present a simulation-based monthly power system model-ready hydropower generation dataset for 110 facilities in British Columbia and Alberta from 1981 to 2019. These monthly hydropower generation estimates are developed from integrated hydrologic model simulations of runoff and reservoir-operated streamflow, followed by scaling that considers diversion inflow constraints based on hydropower water license information. To address the lack of comparable hydropower generation records, we conduct step-by-step evaluations for simulated runoff, regulated streamflow, and hydropower generation using available observations or estimates. The presented hydropower dataset aims to enhance the representation of hydropower resources in Western Canada, supporting power grid system studies for the Western Interconnection of the U.S. and Canada.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decadal Thermal Variability of the Upper Southern Ocean: Zonal Asymmetry

Abstract As the major sink of anthropogenic heat, the Southern Ocean has shown quasi-symmetric, deep-reaching warming since the mid-twentieth century. In comparison, the shorter-term heat storage pattern of the Southern Ocean is more complex and has notable impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems. By analyzing observational datasets and climate model simulations, this study reveals that the Southern Ocean exhibits prominent decadal (>8 years) variability extending to ∼700-m depth and is characterized by out-of-phase changes in the Pacific and Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors. Changes in the Pacific sector are larger in magnitude than those in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors and dominate the total heat storage of the Southern Ocean on decadal time scales. Instead of heat uptake through surface heat fluxes, these asymmetric variations arise primarily from wind-driven heat redistribution. Pacemaker and preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) suggest that these variations in Southern Ocean winds arise primarily from natural variability of the tropical Pacific, as represented by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Through atmospheric teleconnection, the positive phase of the IPO gives rise to higher-than-normal sea level pressure and anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 50°–70°S band of the Pacific sector. These winds lead to warming of 0–700 m by driving the convergence of warm water. The opposite processes, involving cyclonic winds and upper-layer divergence, occur in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sector. These findings aid our understanding of the time-varying heat storage of the Southern Ocean and provide useful implications on initialized decadal climate prediction.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster-Graph Fingerprinting: A Framework for Quantitative Analysis of Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Training and Simulation Data

Machine-learned interatomic models represent a significant advancement in simulation methods, extending the predictive ability of first-principles methods to previously inaccessible length and time scales. However, the data-driven nature of these models can lead to difficult-to-detect errors that can compromise prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel fingerprinting approach based on the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) ML-IAM graph-based descriptor. Our strategy enables efficient and statistically rigorous analysis of system configurations used in ML-IAM training and those generated by their application, e.g., in molecular dynamics simulations. We demonstrate that these fingerprints can effectively assess novelty of a configuration relative to an existing data set and determine dissimilarity among individual configurations, which are two key tasks in workflows for active learning-based ML-IAM training, data set curation, and on-the-fly uncertainty quantification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A New Framework for Interstellar Medium Emission Line Models: Connecting Multiscale Simulations across Cosmological Volumes

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array have detected emission lines from the ionized interstellar medium (ISM) in some of the first galaxies at z ≳ 6. These measurements present an opportunity to better understand galaxy assembly histories and may allow important tests of state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations. It is challenging, however, to model these lines in their proper cosmological context. In order to meet this challenge, we introduce a novel subgrid line emission modeling framework. The framework uses the high-z zoom-in simulation suite from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) collaboration. The line emission signals from H II regions within each simulated FIRE galaxy are modeled using the semianalytic HIIL INES code. A machine learning approach is then used to determine the conditional probability distribution for the line luminosity to stellar-mass ratio from the H II regions around each simulated stellar particle. This conditional probability distribution can then be applied to predict the line luminosities around stellar particles in lower-resolution, yet larger volume cosmological simulations. As an example, we apply this approach to the IllustrisTNG simulations at z = 6. The resulting predictions for the [O II ], [O III ], and Balmer line luminosities as a function of star formation rate agree well with current observations. Our predictions differ, however, from related works in the literature, which lack detailed subgrid ISM models. This highlights the importance of our multiscale simulation modeling framework. Finally, we provide forecasts for future line luminosity function measurements from the JWST and quantify the cosmic variance in such surveys.

(ISM:) H II regions↗
DOE OSTI2024

Timescale Dependence of the Precipitation Response to CO 2 ‐Induced Warming in Millennial‐Length Climate Simulations

Abstract Previous work has shown that estimates of climate sensitivity vary over time in response to abrupt CO 2 forcing in climate model simulations. The energy fluxes that drive warming in response to increasing CO 2 also influence precipitation, which prompts the question: Does the precipitation response therefore also vary over time? We investigate by examining the response of precipitation to warming forced by greenhouse gases—the hydrological sensitivity—in a set of millennial‐length climate simulations with multiple climate models, Long Run Model Intercomparison Project (LongRunMIP). We compare hydrological sensitivity calculated from three different timescales of the simulations: years 1–20, 21–150, and 151–1000. We show that the hydrological sensitivity lacks a consistent dependence on timescale, in contrast to climate sensitivity. Decomposition of the surface energy budget reveals that the relative muting of the multi‐model mean hydrological sensitivity is driven by surface downwelling shortwave flux.

Him (Kinen) Kao, Wing↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Changing Influence of Precipitation on Soil Moisture Drought With Warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below‐normal precipitation and terminated by average or above‐normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming‐driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Understanding of Deep Convective Anvil Clouds

In this project we use ground-based DOE ARM observations, satellite observations, and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations to arrive at a more complete understanding (or, new theory) of how atmospheric heating profiles in thunderstorm cores drives how quickly air rises in the storms. The rate at which air motion increases or decreases with altitude directly relates to how much cloud mass is ejected laterally into the adjacent atmosphere, which then influences the development and maintenance of “stratiform raining cloud anvils”. Our work has led to new equations connecting the heating in these thunderstorms to these stratiform clouds, with the connection modulated by the stability structure of the atmosphere (i.e., if more stable, then a more rapid change in thunderstorm heating with altitude results in more stratiform cloud, independent of whether over land or ocean, or how organized the thunderstorms are). Improving knowledge of stratiform clouds is important, since they contribute to substantial accumulated rainfall (important to agriculture and local hydrology) as well as radiation, given their large areal extents and lifetime. The radiation impacts likely impact simulated cloud feedback in all Earth System models (ESMs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Lake Ice Biases in Reanalysis Data on Downscaled Climate Simulations over the Great Lakes Region

This data package contains observation-based and model-simulated datasets (all provided in NetCDF format) for evaluating how wintertime lake-ice representation affects regional weather and climate over the Laurentian Great Lakes (freshwater lake ecosystem) during the high–ice-cover winter of 2009. The observational component includes: (1) Stage IV gridded precipitation at 4 km, hourly resolution for January–February 2009 over the Great Lakes region (radar–gauge multisensor precipitation analyses); (2) Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis (GLSEA) satellite-derived lake-ice coverage at 1.3 km, daily resolution for the 2009 winter months, providing ice coverage over Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario; and (3) in situ measurements at the Standard Rock site on Lake Superior from the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN) at hourly resolution, including near-surface atmospheric variables and sensible and latent heat fluxes (air–lake exchange) at a fixed point location. The modeling component provides corresponding fields from two simulations, both archived at 4 km, hourly resolution: a standalone Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF) run driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5 (ERA5), and a two-way coupled model using WRF and the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (WRF-FVCOM, a 3-D hydrodynamic lake model). These outputs include variables relevant to air–lake interaction and lake-effect processes (e.g., near-surface temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, and surface turbulent fluxes), enabling direct comparison with the observational datasets. Users can analyze and visualize these NetCDF files with common tools such as Python (e.g., xarray, netCDF4, numpy, pandas), NCO/CDO, Panoply, or ncview; NetCDF variables can also be converted to other formats (e.g., CSV, GeoTIFF) using these utilities.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATU↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Experimental Validation of a Heat Transfer Model for Spilled Molten Salt Pools

A spill of radionuclide-bearing molten salt is one of the major postulated events that needs to be analyzed for liquid fluorine salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) or molten salt reactor licensing purposes. In this postulated event, radioactive source term materials (RSTMs) in the molten salt are discharged from the reactor vessel to the reactor building. The release of RSTMs from the spilled salt pool to the gas space in the reactor building is expected to be controlled by the cooling behavior of the spilled salt, including the growth and shrinkage of the solid crust on the surface of the spilled salt pool. This paper presents a simulation model for spilled salt pool heat transfer and validation efforts. The validation data come from two molten salt spill tests that were performed recently: the PELE2 test by the Rapid Experimental Laboratory of Kairos Power LLC (KP) and the Argonne salt cooling test conducted by Argonne National Laboratory. The former was a large-scale test involving kilograms of molten spilled FLiNaK salt, and the latter was a relatively smaller-scale test targeting various processes associated with a salt spill event. Both tests generated valuable data sets that can be used to assess salt cooling and validate evaluation models. This paper provides a new one-dimensional model that can simulate the cooling process of a spilled salt pool as well as the thermal responses of heat structures, such as the stainless steel liner and the concrete below the salt. The model has been implemented as part of KP-SAM code, which is a branch of the systems code SAM specific to KP FHR. In conclusion, the simulation results of the model are compared with the data of the PELE2 and Argonne tests, and reasonable agreements are observed between the model and test data.

heat transfer model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling detonation with CartaBlanca simulations

The accurate modeling of high explosive (HE) detonation and the con- sequent large solid deformation, failure, plastic flow, porosity growth, and shock wave propagation is important because simulations can capture spatial and temporal features that experimental diagnostics cannot capture. However, the simulation of the explosive event poses challenges to a computational scientist. These include the accurate modeling of ductile damage, crack formation, plastic deformation, as well as physical and nu- merical instabilities. The material response can be history-dependent and subject to large material deformation. Our research simulates the impact of a high explosive (Detasheet) onto a tantulum metal plate. We performed the simulations using CartaBlanca at different mesh resolutions. We decided the study would be impactful if we perform the simulations with the Material Point Method. Differences were observed at the different mesh resolutions in velocity and nodal stress magnitude, so increased mesh resolutions may be required. In addition, the Discontinuous Galerkin method would be needed to account for the large gas expansion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Trade-offs among restored ecosystem functions are context-dependent in Mediterranean-type regions

Global biodiversity hotspots, including Mediterranean-type ecosystems worldwide, are highly threatened by global change that alters biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services. Some restoration activities enhance ecosystem functions by reintroducing plant species based on known relationships between plant traits and ecosystem processes. Achieving multiple functions across different site conditions, however, requires understanding how abiotic factors like climate and soil, along with plant assemblages, influence ecosystem functions, including their trade-offs and synergies. We used the ModEST ecosystem simulation model, which integrates carbon, water, and nutrient processes with plant traits, to assess the relationships between restored plant assemblages and ecosystem functions in Mediterranean-type climates and soils. We investigated whether maximised carbon increment, water use efficiency, and nitrogen use efficiency, along with their trade-offs and synergies, varied across different abiotic contexts. Further, we asked whether assemblages that maximised functions varied across environments and among these functions. We found that maximised ecosystem carbon increment and nitrogen use efficiency occurred under moist, warm conditions, while water use efficiency peaked under drier conditions. Generally, the assemblage that maximised one function differed from those for other maximised functions. Synergies were rare, except between water and nitrogen use efficiencies in loam soils across most climates. Trade-offs among maximised functions were common, varying in strength with abiotic context and plant assemblages, and were more pronounced in sandy loam soils compared to clay-rich soils. Our findings suggest that due to variation in abiotic conditions within and across Mediterranean-type regions at the global scale, site-specific plant assemblages are required to maximise ecosystem functions. Thus, lessons from a single site cannot be transferred to another site, even where the same plant functional types are available for restoration. Our simulation results offer valuable insights into potential ecosystem performance under specific abiotic conditions following restoration with particular plant functional types, thereby informing local restoration efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Three-step LES-C models for flows at high Reynolds numbers

Here, we investigate the need for the second correction step in the recently proposed LES-C models for fluid flows at high Reynolds numbers. These models use a predictor-corrector idea to enhance the efficiency of the existing Large Eddy Simulation models. Different three-step(one defect step, two corrections) LES-C models, based on the Leray-α, ADM and NS-ω LES models, are tested in three different situations. The new Leray-α-C2 model (C2 stands for two correction steps) is applied to the Navier–Stokes equations; the ADC2 is applied to the MagnetoHydroDynamic flow; and the NS-ω-C2 is used in the fluid-fluid interaction problem. We evaluate the effectiveness of the second correction step in all these settings, using qualitative and quantitative numerical tests.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction

Simulating the Earth's climate is an important and complex problem, thus climate models are similarly complex, comprised of millions of lines of code. In order to appropriately utilize the latest computational and software infrastructure advancements in Earth system models running on modern hybrid computing architectures to improve their performance, precision, accuracy, or all three; it is important to ensure that model simulations are repeatable and robust. This introduces the need for establishing statistical or non-bit-for-bit reproducibility, since bit-for-bit reproducibility may not always be achievable. Here, we propose a short-simulation ensemble-based test for an atmosphere model to evaluate the null hypothesis that modified model results are statistically equivalent to that of the original model. We implement this test in version 2 of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The test evaluates a standard set of output variables across the two simulation ensembles and uses a false discovery rate correction to account for multiple testing. The false positive rates of the test are examined using re-sampling techniques on large simulation ensembles and are found to be lower than the currently implemented bootstrapping-based testing approach in E3SM. We also evaluate the statistical power of the test using perturbed simulation ensemble suites, each with a progressively larger magnitude of change to a tuning parameter. The new test is generally found to exhibit more statistical power than the current approach, being able to detect smaller changes in parameter values with higher confidence.

Kelleher, Michael E. [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Calibration of Parallel and Distributed Computing Simulators: A Case Study

Many parallel and distributed computing research results are obtained in simulation, using simulators that mimic real-world executions on some target system. Each such simulator is configured by picking values for parameters that define the behavior of the underlying simulation models it implements. The main concern for a simulator is accuracy: simulated behaviors should be as close as possible to those observed in the real-world target system. This requires that values for each of the simulator's parameters be carefully picked, or “calibrated,” based on ground-truth real-world executions. Examining the current state of the art shows that simulator calibration, at least in the field of parallel and distributed computing, is often undocumented (and thus perhaps often not performed) and, when documented, is described as a labor-intensive, manual process. In this work we evaluate the benefit of automating simulation calibration using simple algorithms. Specifically, we use a real-world case study from the field of High Energy Physics and compare automated calibration to calibration performed by a domain scientist. Our main finding is that automated calibration is on par with or significantly outperforms the calibration performed by the domain scientist. Furthermore, automated calibration makes it straightforward to operate desirable tradeoffs between simulation accuracy and simulation speed.

Mc donald, Jesse↗
DOE OSTI2025

Snow Depth Datasets for Snodgrass Catchment, Colorado, Water Year 2022-2023

This data package presents snow depths data from distributed temperature probes at 18 locations near Snodgrass catchment, Colorado. These data show that snow melt-out dates are approximately one or two weeks later under evergreen forests compared to other vegetation types even at the same elevation. These data were collected to understand how snowmelt heterogeneity impacts headwater hydrology, including streamflow and groundwater levels. They were also used to compare with process-based model simulations of snow depth to evaluate whether the model accurately represents snowmelt dynamics and their effects on headwater hydrology. Snow_DTPs_locations.csv includes all probes locations and their associated elevation and vegetation types. Snow_Depth_Snodgrass_WY2022_2023.csv includes processed snow depths datasets for Water Year (WY) 2022 and 2023. This dataset also includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. Several probes have recordings for WY 2021.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A simulation pipeline for fast neutron imaging and spectroscopy using quantified detector attributes

Radiation imaging capabilities, essential in the nuclear nonproliferation regime, facilitate source localization and, in certain cases, spectroscopy. Scatter-based neutron cameras, which can measure the neutron signatures from special nuclear material, hold particular interest. Systems incorporating organic scintillators can extract neutron energy spectra, potentially distinguishing fission neutron sources from others, such as alpha-neutron sources. The development and testing of a scatter-based neutron imager, however, can be challenging without having an accurate simulation model or first constructing a prototype. This work describes a simulation pipeline that takes output from MCNPX-PoliMi simulations and creates the expected back-projection neutron images and neutron energy spectra. This pipeline was developed to improve the modeling of fast neutron imagers and bridge the current gap in literature, which predominantly focuses on gamma-ray Compton imager models. This work also reports on the significance of various real-world system considerations and their effects on the simulated detector responses. The pipeline was verified and validated with experimental data collected using a 252 Cf spontaneous fission source using a fast neutron scattering imager developed at the University of Michigan.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

V1G Frequency Regulation: Algorithm Development, Validation & Analysis at Scale

Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory developed and validated a high-fidelity digital twin of a smart charging (V1G) ecosystem to model the participation of up to 1,000 unique electric vehicles (EVs) in the PJM frequency regulation market. Utilizing a discrete-event framework, the simulation models complex interactions, from dynamic grid signals (updated every 2 seconds) to individual EV charging dynamics. The simulation incorporates multiple EV models created from real-world lab test data. Researchers tested multiple control algorithms to balance the dual objectives of maximizing aggregator’s revenue and driver charging needs. Results demonstrate that aggregated EVs function as a controllable, highly effective grid resource, achieving high PJM Performance Scores (80–90%). Additionally, an optimized, market-aware bidding strategy was identified as key to profitability. The platform was shown to provide drivers with an average charging discount of nearly 50%. The algorithm was further validated in the lab using production EVs and charging stations to compare simulation results with real-world performance.

Manne, Nithin↗