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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Practical factors of envelope model setup and their effects on the performance of model predictive control for building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems

Model predictive control (MPC) for buildings is attracting significant attention in research and industry due to its potential to address a number of challenges facing the building industry, including energy cost reduction, grid integration, and occupant connectivity. However, the strategy has not yet been implemented at any scale, largely due to the significant effort required to configure and calibrate the model used in the MPC controller. While many studies have focused on methods to expedite model configuration and improve model accuracy, few have studied the impact a wide range of factors have on the accuracy of the resulting model. In addition, few have continued on to analyze these factors’ impact on MPC controller performance in terms of final operating costs. Therefore, this study first identifies the practical factors affecting model setup, specifically focusing on the thermal envelope. The seven that are identified are building design, model structure, model order, data set, data quality, identification algorithm and initial guesses, and software tool-chain. Then, through a large number of trials, it analyzes each factor's influence on model accuracy, focusing on grey-box models for a single zone building envelope. Finally, this study implements a subset of the models identified with these factor variations in heating, ventilating, and air conditioning MPC controllers, and tests them in simulation of a representative case that aims to optimally cool a single-zone building with time-varying electricity prices. It is found that a difference of up to 20%25 in cooling cost for the cases studied can occur between the best performing model and the worst performing model. The primary factors attributing to this were model structure and initial parameter guesses during parameter estimation of the model.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

A single-point modeling approach for the intercomparison and evaluation of ozone dry deposition across chemical transport models (Activity 2 of AQMEII4)

A primary sink of air pollutants and their precursors is dry deposition. Dry deposition estimates differ across chemical transport models, yet an understanding of the model spread is incomplete. Here, we introduce Activity 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative Phase 4 (AQMEII4). We examine 18 dry deposition schemes from regional and global chemical transport models as well as standalone models used for impact assessments or process understanding. We configure the schemes as single-point models at eight Northern Hemisphere locations with observed ozone fluxes. Single-point models are driven by a common set of site-specific meteorological and environmental conditions. Five of eight sites have at least 3 years and up to 12 years of ozone fluxes. The interquartile range across models in multiyear mean ozone deposition velocities ranges from a factor of 1.2 to 1.9 annually across sites and tends to be highest during winter compared with summer. No model is within 50 % of observed multiyear averages across all sites and seasons, but some models perform well for some sites and seasons. For the first time, we demonstrate how contributions from depositional pathways vary across models. Models can disagree with respect to relative contributions from the pathways, even when they predict similar deposition velocities, or agree with respect to the relative contributions but predict different deposition velocities. Both stomatal and nonstomatal uptake contribute to the large model spread across sites. Our findings are the beginning of results from AQMEII4 Activity 2, which brings scientists who model air quality and dry deposition together with scientists who measure ozone fluxes to evaluate and improve dry deposition schemes in the chemical transport models used for research, planning, and regulatory purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Development and evaluation of a variably saturated flow model in the global E3SM Land Model (ELM) version 1.0

Abstract. Improving global-scale model representations of near-surface soil moisture and groundwater hydrology is important for accurately simulating terrestrial processes and predicting climate change effects on water resources. Most existing land surface models, including the default E3SM Land Model (ELMv0), which we modify here, routinely employ different formulations for water transport in the vadose and phreatic zones. Clark et al. (2015) identified a variably saturated Richards equation flow model as an important capability for improving simulation of coupled soil moisture and shallow groundwater dynamics. In this work, we developed the Variably Saturated Flow Model (VSFM) in ELMv1 to unify the treatment of soil hydrologic processes in the unsaturated and saturated zones. VSFM was tested on three benchmark problems and results were evaluated against observations and an existing benchmark model (PFLOTRAN). The ELMv1-VSFM's subsurface drainage parameter, fd, was calibrated to match an observationally constrained and spatially explicit global water table depth (WTD) product. Optimal spatially explicit fd values were obtained for 79 % of global 1.9∘ × 2.5∘ grid cells, while the remaining 21 % of global grid cells had predicted WTD deeper than the observationally constrained estimate. Comparison with predictions using the default fd value demonstrated that calibration significantly improved predictions, primarily by allowing much deeper WTDs. Model evaluation using the International Land Model Benchmarking package (ILAMB) showed that improvements in WTD predictions did not degrade model skill for any other metrics. We evaluated the computational performance of the VSFM model and found that the model is about 30 % more expensive than the default ELMv0 with an optimal processor layout. The modular software design of VSFM not only provides flexibility to configure the model for a range of problem setups but also allows for building the model independently of the ELM code, thus enabling straightforward testing of the model's physics against other models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Static Aeroelastic Modeling of a Sub-Scale Wind Tunnel Model with Novel Flap Concept

This paper examines the static aeroelastic modeling of a flexible wind tunnel model equipped with a novel control effector known as the Variable Camber Continuous Trailing Edge Flap (VCCTEF) system. The wind tunnel model is an approximately 10 percent sub-scale version of a wing designed to be equipped on a commerical transport aircraft such as the full-scale NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM). The structure of the model is made highly flexible such that a 10 percent of semi-span wing tip deflection is expected at a design lift condition, and a representation of the VCCTEF concept is incorporated on the model. Static aeroelastic modeling is conducted by using a representative single beam structural finite-element model coupled to a vortex-lattice aerodynamic model. The resulting aeroelastic model of the flexible wind tunnel model is compared against experimental wind tunnel test results from the actual model tested at the University of Washington Aeronautical Laboratory (UWAL). Comparison cases are made using reference and VICON measurements of VCCTEF flap deflections from the wind tunnel test data, and percent errors between the lift curve parameters are presented. The results show up to a maximum percent of error of <10% with regards to lift curve slope values between the aeroelastic model and the UWAL test data. The agreement of lift curve slope values from the aeroelastic model and experimental test results serves as validation for the coupled vortex-lattice finite-element static aeroelastic model.

Aeroelasticity↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Multi-Model Trajectory Simulation Estimators using Model Selection and Tuning

Multi-model Monte Carlo methods have been demonstrated to be an efficient and accurate alternative to standard Monte Carlo (MC) in the model-based propagation of uncertainty in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model MC methods fuse predictions from low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity EDL model of interest to produce unbiased statistics with a fraction of the computational cost. The accuracy and efficiency of the multi-model MC methods are dependent upon the magnitude of correlations of the low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity model, but also upon the correlation amongst the low-fidelity models, and their relative computational cost. Because of this layer of complexity, the question of how to optimally select the set of low-fidelity models has remained open. In this work, methods for optimal model construction and tuning are investigated as a means to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. Specifically, the focus is on the inclusion of low-fidelity model tuning within the sample allocation optimization that accompanies multi-model MC methods. Preliminary results indicate that low-fidelity model tuning can significantly improve efficiency and precision of trajectory simulations and provide an increased edge to multi-model MC methods when compared to standard MC. The challenges and potential benefits to exploring a fully iterative and comprehensive optimization strategy in future work are highlighted.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Multi-Model Trajectory Simulation Estimators using Model Selection and Tuning

Multi-model Monte Carlo methods have been demonstrated to be an efficient and accurate alternative to standard Monte Carlo (MC) in the model-based propagation of uncertainty in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model MC methods fuse predictions from low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity EDL model of interest to produce unbiased statistics with a fraction of the computational cost. The accuracy and efficiency of the multi-model MC methods are dependent upon the magnitude of correlations of the low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity model, but also upon the correlation among the low-fidelity models, and their relative computational cost. Because of this layer of complexity, the question of how to optimally select the set of low-fidelity models has remained open. In this work, methods for optimal model construction and tuning are investigated as a means to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. Specifically, the focus is on the inclusion of low-fidelity model tuning within the sample allocation optimization that accompanies multi-model MC methods. Preliminary results indicate that low-fidelity model tuning can significantly improve efficiency and precision of trajectory simulations and provide an increased edge to multi-model MC methods when compared to standard MC. The challenges and potential benefits to exploring a fully iterative and comprehensive optimization strategy in future work are highlighted.

uncertainty quantification↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tritium Transport Modeling at the Pore Scale in Ceramic Breeder Materials Using TMAP8

Fusion reactors depend on the blanket material to breed and release tritium at the same rate or faster than it is consumed by the fusion reaction. Cellular ceramic breeders (CCBs) are dense materials that can maintain a high tritium breeding ratio while promoting tritium release because of highly connected pores. Assessing the tritium breeding capabilities of these materials requires a combination of extensive experimental and modeling efforts. In this work, we develop and calibrate a multiphysics model of tritium transport. This novel model accounts for ceramic and pore diffusion, trapping and detrapping, and several surface reactions at the pore surface. We perform a sensitivity analysis and calibrate the model by comparing its predictions against experimental measurements of deuterium absorption. The calibrated model is then used to model tritium absorption in samples with different pore microstructures to investigate the effect of pore interconnectivity on tritium absorption. The model is part of the development of the multiscale, multiphysics framework for tritium transport [i.e., the Tritium Migration Analysis Program (TMAP8)], which is itself built on top of the finite-element multiphysics framework multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment (MOOSE). This study demonstrates some of TMAP8’s capabilities and is the first step toward assessing the tritium breeding capabilities of ceramic breeder material designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Delivery of Dynamic Thermal Energy Storage Models and Advanced Reactor Concept Models to the HYBRID Repository

This publication details newly created energy storage and reactor models developed within the HYBRID modeling repository as part of the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Model development to-date includes creation of dynamic systems-level models of a pebble bed high temperature gas reactor (HTGR), sodium fast reactor (SFR), compressed air energy storage (CAES), liquid air energy storage (LAES) and Modelica standard library based two-tank sensible heat storage (SHS) in the IES-based HYBRID repository. Models are developed using the latest publicly available data and incorporate the possibility of control strategy inclusion for use with the existing IES modeling, analysis, and optimization toolset. Simulations showcase the abilities of each technology to flexibly operate in ways consistent with IES operation expectations. When these models are available, they can be utilized within different integrated energy park concepts to understand optimal system operation, control, and dispatching. Moreover, given the generic nature of the models, industrial partner technologies can be quickly added to the repository using the existing models as a basis. Additional dynamic models for thermal energy storage concepts can be developed and added to the HYBRID repository as needed. Also detailed in this report are future development goals for the HYBRID repository including adding suites of steady-state models, economic costing information, and reduced-order models. By adding these models in addition to the physical transient models currently existing within HYBRID, HYBRID will be a fully integrable tool for FORCE users.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Model Inadequacy in TRISO Nuclear Fuel Fission Products Release Models: Empirical and Mechanistic Approaches

The increasing use of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel in both advanced and existing reactors necessitates a thorough evaluation of uncertainties and shortcomings in TRISO fission product release models. These inadequacies arise from the simplifications made in computational models compared to experimental data. Utilizing the BISON fuel performance code and experimental data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program provides a unique chance to rigorously assess these inadequacies within a Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. This study contrasts the standard Bayesian framework with the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly accounts for modeling inadequacies, in the context of UQ for TRISO silver release models. It examines both the traditional Arrhenius equation and a more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model that incorporates microstructure information. The inverse UQ process applied to AGR-2 and AGR-3/4 datasets identified modeling inadequacy as the primary source of uncertainty, with experimental noise also being significant, while model parameter uncertainty was minimal. Both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models showed similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For forward predictive UQ using the AGR-1 dataset, the KOH framework enhanced the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties by approximately 30% and 40%, respectively, compared to the standard Bayesian framework. This improvement was observed for both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models. At the engineering scale, both models performed similarly, but the LLS-informed model outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly considering modeling inadequacy in the UQ process and highlight the need for ongoing refinement of physics-based models to address these shortcomings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration

Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flexible and Modular Simultaneous Modeling of Flow and Reactive Transport in Rivers and Hyporheic Zones

Investigations of coupled multiphysics processes in rivers and hyporheic zones have extensively used numerical models. Most existing models use a sequential, one-way coupling between the surface and subsurface domains. Such one-way coupling potentially introduces error. To overcome this, a fully coupled model, hyporheicFoam, was developed using the open-source computational platform OpenFOAM. It captures the coupled flow and multicomponent reactive transport processes within both surface and subsurface domains and across their interface. The coupling between two domains is implemented by mapping conservative flux boundary conditions at the interface through an iterative algorithm. Reactive transport is enabled by specifying a reaction network. To start, we have implemented reaction kinetics following the double Monod-type model with inhibition. The model capability is illustrated through modeling of both conservative and reactive hyporheic flow and transport through dune bedforms. With the novel coupled model, it is now possible to quantify reactions wherein the reactants and products are constantly exchanging between domains and have feedbacks. hyporheicFoam can simulate large, three-dimensional cases owing to the computational flexibility and power offered by the code structure and parallel design of OpenFOAM.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Subtropical Eastern North Pacific SST bias in earth system models

Karthik Balaguru (PNNL), Luke Van Roekel (LLNL), L. Ruby Leung (PNNL) and Milena Veneziani (LLNL) Abstract: This study systematically evaluates the warm SST bias in the Subtropical Eastern North Pacific (SENP), a problem plaguing most CMIP6 models, using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SM). Compared to the model at its standard resolution (1o atmosphere, 30-60 km ocean), the SST bias improves in several regions at high resolution (0.25o atmosphere, 18-6 km ocean) except in subtropical eastern boundary regions, such as the SENP. A mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that errors in the surface radiative fluxes and horizontal heat advection are primarily responsible for the bias. Analysis of HighResMIP models indicates that the lack of improvement in the SENP SST bias with resolution is not native to E3SM alone. A larger CMIP6 inter-model correlation of SST bias with biases in surface winds than radiation highlights the important role of large-scale circulation biases in the SENP SST bias in coupled models.

Balaguru, Karthik↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Model-Driven Visualization Tool for Use with Model-Based Systems Engineering Projects

Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) promotes increased consistency between a system's design and its design documentation through the use of an object-oriented system model. The creation of this system model facilitates data presentation by providing a mechanism from which information can be extracted by automated manipulation of model content. Existing MBSE tools enable model creation, but are often too complex for the unfamiliar model viewer to easily use. These tools do not yet provide many opportunities for easing into the development and use of a system model when system design documentation already exists. This study creates a Systems Modeling Language (SysML) Document Traceability Framework (SDTF) for integrating design documentation with a system model, and develops an Interactive Visualization Engine for SysML Tools (InVEST), that exports consistent, clear, and concise views of SysML model data. These exported views are each meaningful to a variety of project stakeholders with differing subjects of concern and depth of technical involvement. InVEST allows a model user to generate multiple views and reports from a MBSE model, including wiki pages and interactive visualizations of data. System data can also be filtered to present only the information relevant to the particular stakeholder, resulting in a view that is both consistent with the larger system model and other model views. Viewing the relationships between system artifacts and documentation, and filtering through data to see specialized views improves the value of the system as a whole, as data becomes information

relational databases↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven wind turbine wake modeling via probabilistic machine learning

Wind farm design primarily depends on the variability of the wind turbine wake flows to the atmospheric wind conditions and the interaction between wakes. Physics-based models that capture the wake flow field with high-fidelity are computationally very expensive to perform layout optimization of wind farms, and, thus, data-driven reduced-order models can represent an efficient alternative for simulating wind farms. In this work, we use real-world light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements of wind-turbine wakes to construct predictive surrogate models using machine learning. Specifically, we first demonstrate the use of deep autoencoders to find a low-dimensional latent space that gives a computationally tractable approximation of the wake LiDAR measurements. Then, we learn the mapping between the parameter space and the (latent space) wake flow fields using a deep neural network. Additionally, we also demonstrate the use of a probabilistic machine learning technique, namely, Gaussian process modeling, to learn the parameter-space-latent-space mapping in addition to the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in the data. Finally, to cope with training large datasets, we demonstrate the use of variational Gaussian process models that provide a tractable alternative to the conventional Gaussian process models for large datasets. Furthermore, we introduce the use of active learning to adaptively build and improve a conventional Gaussian process model predictive capability. Overall, we find that our approach provides accurate approximations of the wind-turbine wake flow field that can be queried at an orders-of-magnitude cheaper cost than those generated with high-fidelity physics-based simulations.

Deep neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Real-Time Vehicle-Specific Eco-Routing Model for On-Board Navigation Applications Capturing Transient Vehicle Behavior

The paper develops a real-time vehicle-specific eco-routing model for use in on-board navigation systems for both conventional fuel- and battery-powered electric vehicles. The model uses a novel link cost function that retains all microscopic transient behavior along a link by capturing within-link speed, acceleration, and road grade variations. Specifically, eight vehicle-agnostic link-specific variables are transmitted to the cloud and fused with information received from other connected vehicles. The fused data are then sent back to the connected vehicles and used to compute vehicle-specific eco-routes (edge computing). The solution produces an energy-efficient dynamic user-equilibrium traffic assignment that is solved incrementally. A numerical experiment is first designed to test the model, demonstrating the benefits associated with vehicle-specific eco-routes compared to those produced by traditional models. The model is then implemented in a micro-simulation framework to evaluate the network-wide impacts of the proposed energy-efficient user-optimum incremental traffic assignment for different traffic demand levels. Results demonstrate that the proposed model produces lower network-wide energy consumption levels compared to traditional energy-efficient and travel time user-optimum traffic assignment methods for both conventional fuel and electric vehicles. Conventional fuel savings relative to travel time routing decrease with increasing traffic demand levels, while electric power savings do not vary monotonically with congestion levels. Energy savings relative to traditional eco-routing are also demonstrated to not vary monotonically with demand levels. Results of the study also demonstrate that the transportation network layout significantly affects the eco-routing system performance. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed model in real-world applications is discussed and presented.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Water Lone Pair Delocalization in Classical and Quantum Descriptions of the Hydration of Model Ions

Understanding the nature of ionic hydration at a fundamental level has eluded scientists despite intense interest for nearly a century. In particular, the microscopic origins of the asymmetry of ion solvation thermodynamics with respect to the sign of the ionic charge remains a mystery. Here, we determine the response of accurate quantum mechanical water models to strong nanoscale solvation forces arising from excluded volumes and ionic electrostatic fields. This is compared to the predictions of two important limiting classes of classical models of water with fixed point changes, differing in their treatment of “lone pair” electrons. Using the quantum water model as our standard of accuracy, we find that a single fixed classical treatment of lone pair electrons cannot accurately describe solvation of both apolar and cationic solutes, emphasizing the need for a more flexible description of local electronic effects in solvation processes. However, we explicitly show that all water models studied respond to weak long-ranged electrostatic perturbations in a manner that follows macroscopic dielectric continuum models, as would be expected. Here, we emphasize the importance of these findings in the context of realistic ion models, using density functional theory and empirical models, and discuss the implications of our results for quantitatively accurate reduced descriptions of solvation in dielectric media.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementation of a Drift Flux Model into SAM with Development of a Verification and Validation Test Suite for Modeling of Noncondensable Gas Mixtures

The advanced thermal-hydraulic system code, System Analysis Module (SAM), was originally developed for the modeling of single-phase flow in advanced reactors. It has since been expanded to include a four-equation drift flux model for the modeling of two-phase flows containing a noncondensable gas. The model was expanded to support the modeling of molten salt reactor (MSR) designs in which the fuel is directly dissolved in the circulating coolant. These designs have shown that circulating gas bubbles can play an important role in the management of fission products and the operational behavior of the reactor. A drift flux model was implemented to more accurately capture the localized behavior of the void in the core and its impact on the mass transfer of fission products. A thorough assessment of the new model was performed by developing a verification and validation test suite. Verification problems were designed to test all major terms in the new governing equations. The new model converged to the correct solution at the expected order of accuracy for all verification cases. The validation cases included a wide range of flow and void conditions in different pipe geometries. Although higher void experiments show a slight underprediction of void by the drift flux model, experiments that aim to reproduce Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) experimental conditions show good agreement with the model. The gas transport model was activated for a SAM model of the MSRE to demonstrate that it can be used in a more complex model. Finally, this gas transport model will be used along with an interfacial area transport equation being implemented in SAM for the prediction of mass transport behavior in MSR conditions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Learning-Based Inversion-Free Model-Data Integration to Advance Ecosystem Model Prediction

Ecosystem model prediction is important for understanding ecosystem responses to climate change and for management support. Model prediction and quantification of predictive uncertainty of ecosystems have long been investigated. The traditional workflow, which calibrates models to match observations and then uses the calibrated models for predictions, relies heavily on inverse modeling to constrain uncertain parameters in complex forward models. This inversion-based prediction approach is infeasible for complex models with heterogeneous parameter uncertainties and incapable of rapid integration of streaming and multiple sources of data because of the difficulty and computational cost in the model inversion, which is typically ill-posed and can require hundreds of thousands of expensive forward simulations to be performed iteratively. We propose to circumvent inverse modeling by precomputing an ensemble of unconstrained forward simulations and then using machine learning (ML) methods to learn the statistical relationship between simulated observation and prediction quantities. Once the ML model has learned the relationship, it can be used to make predictions of future system behavior with uncertainty quantification based on observations. The proposed learningbased inversion-free model prediction (LIMP) framework is computationally efficient which only requires a few thousands of fully parallelizable forward simulations. Additionally, LIMP can continually update predictions based on streaming observations from multiple locations and sources without necessarily requiring extra model simulations. In this study, we apply LIMP to a regional terrestrial ecosystem model with 47 parameters for testing, refining, and evaluating the approach. We demonstrate that LIMP can be used for efficient model prediction, rapid data assimilation, and cost-effective experimental design for improving robust predictive understanding of ecosystems.

Lu, Dan↗