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NASA NTRS1985

Advanced reliability methods for structural evaluation

Fast probability integration (FPI) methods, which can yield approximate solutions to such general structural reliability problems as the computation of the probabilities of complicated functions of random variables, are known to require one-tenth the computer time of Monte Carlo methods for a probability level of 0.001; lower probabilities yield even more dramatic differences. A strategy is presented in which a computer routine is run k times with selected perturbed values of the variables to obtain k solutions for a response variable Y. An approximating polynomial is fit to the k 'data' sets, and FPI methods are employed for this explicit form.

Wirsching, P. H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monocular Horizon Navigation

The Artemis program advances towards operations on the lunar surface, where precise surface localization is a driving need for safety and science. Using the observable horizon as an image landmark allows for estimating the photographer’s position. This work analyzes the application of Perspective-n-Point (PnP) algorithms to this lunar localization problem. Batch simulations using lunar topography display the accuracy and drawbacks of these methods. Monte Carlo techniques show the pipeline’s solutions as measurements provided to a navigation filter. When filtered, these solutions have position errors of 50 meters or better, which is similar to or better than the performance of other methods of surface localization.

optical navigation↗

NASA NTRS1972

A modified Monte Carlo model for the ionospheric heating rates

A Monte Carlo method is adopted as a basis for the derivation of the photoelectron heat input into the ionospheric plasma. This approach is modified in an attempt to minimize the computation time. The heat input distributions are computed for arbitrarily small source elements that are spaced at distances apart corresponding to the photoelectron dissipation range. By means of a nonlinear interpolation procedure their individual heating rate distributions are utilized to produce synthetic ones that fill the gaps between the Monte Carlo generated distributions. By varying these gaps and the corresponding number of Monte Carlo runs the accuracy of the results is tested to verify the validity of this procedure. It is concluded that this model can reduce the computation time by more than a factor of three, thus improving the feasibility of including Monte Carlo calculations in self-consistent ionosphere models.

Mayr, H. G.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Comments on the measurements of multiple muon phenomena

The extensive air showers in the energy around 10 to the 15th power eV include those initiated by astrophysical primary gamma-rays. The observations need a precise measurement on the directions of primary particles. It is one of the methods to measure the directions of high-energy muons in air showers. The accuracy in measuring the direction, by calculating the cosmic-ray phenomena in the atmosphere at very high energy was investgated. The results calculated by Monte Carlo method suggest that one may determine the direction of primary cosmic-rays within errors of 10/3 rad in observing muons of above 100 GeV at sea level.

Sato, T.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Numerical Descriptions of Cosmic-Ray Transport

The behavior of energetic particles in the solar system is described by a well known Fokker-Planck equation. Although analytic methods yield insight into the nature of its solutions, especially in the diffusion regime, calculations that go beyond diffusion are very complicated. The reliability of these calculations is of concern, because numerical methods are notorious for their errors and artifacts. The well known Milne problem of classical transport theory was analyzed with the aid of three different numerical methods. These are: (1) The method of eigenfunctions in which the distribution function is approximated by a sum of eigenfunctions of the scattering operator, (2) Numerical solutions of a finite difference aquation; and (3) Direct simulation of the scattering and streaming of individual particles with the aid of Monte Carlo methods.

Earl, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Numerical simulation of a plane turbulent mixing layer, with applications to isothermal, rapid reactions

A hybrid method has been developed for the numerical prediction of turbulent mixing in a spatially-developing, free shear layer. Most significantly, the computation incorporates the effects of large-scale structures, Schmidt number and Reynolds number on mixing, which have been overlooked in the past. In flow field prediction, large-eddy simulation was conducted by a modified 2-D vortex method with subgrid-scale modeling. The predicted mean velocities, shear layer growth rates, Reynolds stresses, and the RMS of longitudinal velocity fluctuations were found to be in good agreement with experiments, although the lateral velocity fluctuations were overpredicted. In scalar transport, the Monte Carlo method was extended to the simulation of the time-dependent pdf transport equation. For the first time, the mixing frequency in Curl's coalescence/dispersion model was estimated by using Broadwell and Breidenthal's theory of micromixing, which involves Schmidt number, Reynolds number and the local vorticity. Numerical tests were performed for a gaseous case and an aqueous case. Evidence that pure freestream fluids are entrained into the layer by large-scale motions was found in the predicted pdf. Mean concentration profiles were found to be insensitive to Schmidt number, while the unmixedness was higher for higher Schmidt number. Applications were made to mixing layers with isothermal, fast reactions. The predicted difference in product thickness of the two cases was in reasonable quantitative agreement with experimental measurements.

Lin, P.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Atmospheric transfer of radiation above an inhomogeneous non-Lambertian reflective ground. II - Computational considerations and results

The theoretical foundation for solution of the three-dimensional radiative transfer problem described in the preceding paper is reviewed. Practical considerations involved in implementing the Fourier transform/Gauss-Seidel method on a minicomputer are discussed, along with derivations of symmetry relations and approximations which can be used to enhance the computational efficiency. Model results for a surface whose albedo varies as a step function are presented and compared with published solutions obtained by using the Monte Carlo method.

Diner, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Analysis of the CE-22 Advanced Nozzle Test Facility

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the Advanced Nozzle Test Facility, CE-22, located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Results for the uncertainty in thrust and flow coefficients, in addition to other variables of interest, are provided. Results are presented separately as random uncertainty (characterizing errors inherent to instrument or measurement environment, impacting repeatability), systematic uncertainty (capturing inaccuracies due to measurement process, calibration, installation effects or other sources which may introduce bias), and total combined uncertainty. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described. The analysis tool MANTUS (Measurement Analysis Tool for Uncertainty in Systems) was used to quantify instrumentation system uncertainty, and statistical analysis and engineering judgment were used to quantify other random and systematic uncertainty sources. The Monte Carlo method was used to propagate systematic and random elemental uncertainties to determine the uncertainties of various calculated variables of interest.

data quality↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Risk Due to Small Sample Size in Probability of Detection Analysis Using Tolerance Intervals

Small sample size (e.g.6-30) poses risk in results of probability of detection (POD) analysis using tolerance intervals. This method is also called as the limited sample or LS POD. The analysis is performed either during NDE procedure qualification or for assessment of reliability of an NDE procedure. The risk is primarily due to sampling error. Smaller samples are not likely to be random to the population or representative of the population. The small samples are likely to be biased. Biased samples have smaller standard deviation compared to the population. POD analysis with small biased sample can lead to overestimation of POD. Many sampling schemes are available in statistics to mitigate sampling risk. Primary objective of POD analysis is to determine a decision threshold from signal response measurements of a sample such that it is less than or equal to population decision threshold for 90% POD. Sampling error implies that this NDE reliability condition is violated. One of sampling types is called a representative sample. Representative samples reduce variance in POD estimates but also reduce magnitude of the error. Sampling sensitivity analysis for some sampling types is performed here using repetitive random sampling or Monte Carlo method. Six sampling types are considered for comparison. Some of the sampling types are similar to drawing a representative sample. LS POD model assumes random sampling. Therefore, random sampling is used as a basis for comparison with each sampling type. The sampling types used in the analysis are, A. Nominal and worst-case sampling, B. Worst-case sampling, C. Nominal case sampling, D. Random sampling, E. Random target, and sub-target sampling. F. Nominal target and sub-target sampling. Results of Monte Carlo simulation indicate that type F sampling can mitigate sampling risk and is also more practical to implement. Type A sampling may also mitigate the sampling risk, but it may be less practical to implement.

Ajay M Koshti↗

NASA NTRS1998

High-Density Plasma Reactors: Simulations for Design

The development of improved and more efficient plasma reactors is a costly process for the semiconductor industry. Until five years ago, the Industry made most of its advancements through a trial and error approach. More recently, the role of computational modeling in the design process has increased. Both conventional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques like Navier-Stokes solvers as well as particle simulation methods are used to model plasma reactor flowfields. However, since high-density plasma reactors generally operate at low gas pressures on the order of 1 to 10 mTorr, a particle simulation may be necessary because of the failure of CFD techniques to model rarefaction effects. The direct simulation Monte Carlo method is the most widely accepted and employed particle simulation tool and has previously been used to investigate plasma reactor flowfields. A plasma DSMC code is currently under development at NASA Ames Research Center with its foundation as the object-oriented parallel Cornell DSMC code, MONACO. The present investigation is a follow up of a neutral flow investigation of the effects of process parameters as well as reactor design on etch rate and etch rate uniformity. The previous work concentrated on silicon etch of a chlorine flow in a configuration typical of electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) or helical resonator type reactors. The effects of the plasma on the dissociation chemistry were modeled by making assumptions about the electron temperature and number density. The electrons or ions themselves were not simulated.The present work extends these results by simulating the charged species.The electromagnetic fields are calculated such that power deposition is modeled self-consistently. Electron impact reactions are modeled along with mechanisms for charge exchange. An bipolar diffusion assumption is made whereby electrons remain tied to the ions. However, the velocities of tile electrons are allowed to be modified during collisions and are not confined to a Maxwellian distribution. The interaction between the neutral flow and plasma is examined, and results for etch rate uniformity from the previous research and the present plasma simulations are compared.

Hash, David B.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Heat of segregation of single substitutional impurities

The method of Bozzolo, Ferrante and Smith (BFS) is applied for the calculation of the heat of segregation of single substitutional impurities in fcc metals. A simple equation for predicting the heat of segregation is derived for the rigid case (no atomic relaxations). The results of including atomic relaxation using a Monte Carlo method are also presented and the results compared with a number of experimental and theoretical results.

Bozzolo, Guillermo↗

NASA NTRS2014

Some Interesting Applications of Probabilistic Techiques in Structural Dynamic Analysis of Rocket Engines

Numerical and Analytical methods developed to determine damage accumulation in specific engine components when speed variation included. Dither Life Ratio shown to be well over factor of 2 for specific example. Steady‐State assumption shown to be accurate for most turbopump cases, allowing rapid calculation of DLR. If hot‐fire speed data unknown, Monte Carlo method developed that uses speed statistics for similar engines. Application of techniques allow analyst to reduce both uncertainty and excess conservatism. High values of DLR could allow previously unacceptable part to pass HCF criteria without redesign. Given benefit and ease of implementation, recommend that any finite life turbomachine component analysis adopt these techniques. Probability Values calculated, compared, and evaluated for several industry‐proposed methods for combining random and harmonic loads. Two new excel macros written to calculate combined load for any specific probability level. Closed form Curve fits generated for widely used 3(sigma) and 2(sigma) probability levels. For design of lightweight aerospace components, obtaining accurate, reproducible, statistically meaningful answer critical.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Dynamically stratified Monte Carlo forecasting

A new method for performing Monte Carlo forecasts is introduced. The method, called dynamic stratification, selects initial perturbations based on a stratification of the error distribution. A simple implementation is presented in which the error distribution used for the stratification is estimated from a linear model derived from a large ensemble of 12-h forecasts with the full dynamic model. The stratification thus obtained is used to choose a small subsample of initial states with which to perform the dynamical Monte Carlo forecasts. Several test cases are studied using a simple two-level general circulation model with uncertain initial conditions. It is found that the method provides substantial reductions in the sampling error of the forecast mean and variance when compared to the more traditional approach of choosing the initial perturbations at random. The degree of improvement, however, is sensitive to the nature of the initial error distribution and to the base state. In practice the method may be viable only if the computational burden involved in obtaining an adequate estimate of the error distribution is shared with the data-assimilation procedure.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS1992

Angle-dependent Green's functions for relativistic Compton reflection

Using analytic methods, we derived the first-order Green's functions, in terms of the observing angle, for the reflected spectra after a single Compton scattering of relativistic photons by a plane-parallel semiinfinite medium of cold electrons. We also calculated the total Green's functions for incident photons of 511 keV, using Monte Carlo methods. We show that both the first-order and total Green's functions have strong angular dependences and that the first-order Green's functions play a dominant role in determining the properties of the total reflected spectra.

Hua, Xin-Min↗

NASA NTRS1992

Reflectance of broken cloud fields - Simulation and parameterization

The transfer of solar irradiance in plane parallel and broken cloud fields is simulated using a Monte Carlo method. The angular distribution pattern of radiances exiting the cloud layer is studied with varying cloud geometries, optical thicknesses, cloudiness, and solar zenith angles. A rather large anisotropy of the reflected flux is found, usually increasing with solar zenith angle and with patterns that strongly depend on cloud geometry. The main features are (1) a local maximum of reflected intensity in the forward direction for all cases, (2) a limb darkening for the plane parallel case, and (3) a limb brightening and a local maximum of reflected intensity in the backward direction for broken clouds. A parameterization for the azimuth-average reflectance function is developed. It reproduces the Monte Carlo simulation with a reasonable accuracy and illustrates that, when azimuthally averaged, the reflectance function is dominated by side viewing and intercloud shadowing effects.

Breon, Francois-Marie↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Radiation Transport Models in Space: from Supernovae to Cells

Humans embarking on deep space exploration missions will encounter persistent exposure to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - an energetic and highly complex radiation field that is unlike anything found on Earth. Exposure to such radiation fields is attributed to various adverse health effects, including cancer, cardiovascular disease, and cognitive impairment and is identified by NASA as one of the five main hazards of human spaceflight. It is therefore critical to be able to fully characterize the exposure received by humans behind shielding in space and project consequent health risks. A wide variety of computational models have been developed over the years to help meet this requirement. In this talk, an overview of the GCR environment in deep space is provided. Methods of propagating GCR fields through the shielding that protects humans in space are described along with simulation tools used to assess biological damage at the cellular scale. Finally, the NASA cancer risk model is briefly described, and risk projections are provided for various mission scenarios. Radiation transport models and solution methods pervade many aspects of this talk. For example, the GCR spectrum impinging on spacecraft is determined by solving the Fokker-Planck transport equation to propagate cosmic rays (believed to originate from supernovae) from the edge of the heliosphere to the vicinity of Earth. The Boltzmann transport equation is solved to transport this GCR spectrum through shielding and human tissue. Monte Carlo methods are used to simulate the transport of low energy electrons that dominate biological damage at the cellular scale. Progress and challenges in each of these areas will be highlighted.

Tony C. Slaba↗

NASA NTRS1972

Low-energy electron transport with the method of discrete ordinates

The one-dimensional discrete ordinates code ANISN was adapted to transport low energy (a few MeV) electrons. Calculated results obtained with ANISN were compared with experimental data for transmitted electron energy and angular distribution data for electrons normally incident on aluminum slabs of various thicknesses. The calculated and experimental results are in good agreement for a thin slab (0.2 of the electron range), but not for the thicker slabs (0.6 of the electron range). Calculated results obtained with ANISN were also compared with results obtained using Monte Carlo methods.

Bartine, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Transport processes on the lunar surface - Comparison of model calculations with radionuclides data

Descriptions are given of the experimental methods used in determining Al-26 and Mn-53 activities and of the possible improvements that can be expected in the near future. The results obtained for the seven lunar core sections where both Al-26 and Mn-53 are measured with good depth definition are discussed. It is then shown how meteoritic impacts and the secondary effects they induce modify the Al-26 and Mn-53 activities in a core. Using a Monte Carlo method, 150 possible depositional histories for a core are generated; from these the resulting activity profiles for both Al-26 and Mn-53 are computed, using several possible SCR energy spectra. These model-generated profiles are then compared with the experimental profiles in the seven cores, and plausible scenarios for the depositional history of each of the cores are tentatively inferred.

Langevin, Y.↗