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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1985

Completely monotone regression estimates of software failure rates

A method for estimating the present failure rate of a program is presented. A crude nonparameter estimate of the failure rate function is obtained from past failure times. This estimate is then smoothed by fitting a completely monotonic function, which is the solution of a quadratic programming problem. The value of the smoothed function at present time is used as the estimate of present failure rate. Results of a Monte Carlo study of performance are given.

Miller, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Statistical methods for astronomical data with upper limits. II - Correlation and regression

Statistical methods for calculating correlations and regressions in bivariate censored data where the dependent variable can have upper or lower limits are presented. Cox's regression and the generalization of Kendall's rank correlation coefficient provide significant levels of correlations, and the EM algorithm, under the assumption of normally distributed errors, and its nonparametric analog using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, give estimates for the slope of a regression line. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that survival analysis is reliable in determining correlations between luminosities at different bands. Survival analysis is applied to CO emission in infrared galaxies, X-ray emission in radio galaxies, H-alpha emission in cooling cluster cores, and radio emission in Seyfert galaxies.

Isobe, T.↗

NASA NTRS1986

The Oort cloud in transition

The evolution of theoretical and empirical models of the Oort cloud (OC) since it was first proposed by Oort in 1950 is traced, and the main features of current models are discussed, in a general review. Consideration is given to work on the classical OC (Monte Carlo simulations of OC evolution, population and mass estimates, and OC perturbation by passing stars and giant molecular clouds), models of a massive inner OC (simulations of planetesimal-swarm evolution in the Uranus-Neptune zone and IRAS observations of circumstellar dust shells), evidence for random and/or periodic comet showers, and the possible role of the Galactic missing mass. The current OC model comprises an almost spherical outer (10,000-100,000-AU) cloud of mass 7-8 earth mass and population (1.4-2.3) x 10 to the 12th, and a flat disklike inner (40-10,000 AU) cloud of mass 100-200 earth mass and population (1-10) x 10 to the 13th.

Weissman, P. R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The dissociation energy of He2(+)

Ab initio potential energy curves for He2(+) are computed using full CI wavefunctions in conjuction with large Gaussian and Slater basis sets. The computed curves yield rotational-vibrational transitions with errors of less than 1/cm. They also yield quasi-bound levels with energies and lifetimes in reasonable agreement with translational spectroscopy measurements. The best D(e) is estimated to be 2.470 eV. Green's function Monte Carlo calculations yield a very similar value, 2.466 + or - 0.005.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Estimating Maintenance Demands Of A Space Station

RENEW computer program simulates maintenance events and estimates data pertinent to maintenance demands. Developed in support of Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP) Work Package 4. Uses data on reliability and maintainability (R&M) as well as logistical data to estimate both average and time-dependent maintenance demands. Estimates failure and repair times by use of Monte Carlo simulations. Written in BASIC and Assembly language.

Bream, B. L.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Observations of 4U 1700-37 with BATSE

The eclipsing binary X-ray source 4U 1700-37 has been continually monitored by the BATSE experiment on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory since the spring of 1991. Using source measurements at times of Earth occultation, we observe an average (uneclipsed) flux of 0.23 crab in the 20-120 keV band. The flux is highly variable, with occasional flaring behavior on timescales from hundreds of seconds to several hours and intensities as bright as 1 crab. The uneclipsed spectrum is well represented by an optically thin thermal bremsstrahlung model with a temperature of 25 keV independent of source intensity or orbital phase. An upper limit of 4% on the pulse fraction has been obtained for pulse periods between 2 and 700 s. Average orbital light curves from almost 1000 days of occultation measurements have been constructed. These profiles are used to measure: (1) the eclipse semiangle, Theta(sub E) = 28.6 deg +/- 2.1 deg in the 20-120 keV band, and (2) the decrease in orbital period, P(dot)/P = -(3.3 +/- 0.6) x 10(exp -7) 1/ yr. Estimates of system physical parameters are obtained using Monte Carlo simulations to propagate errors in measured and assumed parameters. For the X-ray source mass we find M(sub x) = 2.6(sub -1.4)(sup +2.3) solar mass, and for the mass and radius of the optical companion, M(sub 0) = 30(sub -7)(sup +11) solar mass and R(sub 0) = 18(sub -2)(sup +2) solar radius.

Rubin, B. C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Ultraviolet and Visible Emission Mechanisms in Astrophysics

The project involved the study of ultraviolet (UV) and visible emission mechanisms in astrophysical and atmospheric environments. In many situations, the emission is a direct consequence of a charge transferring collision of an ion with a neutral with capture of an electron to an excited state of the product ion. The process is also important in establishing the ionization and thermal balance of an astrophysical plasma. As little of the necessary collision data are available, the main thrust of the project was the calculation of total and state-selective charge transfer cross sections and rate coefficients for a very large number of collision systems. The data was computed using modern explicit techniques including the molecular-orbital close-coupling (MOCC), classical trajectory Monte Carlo (CTMC), and continuum distorted wave (CDW) methods. Estimates were also made in some instances using the multichannel Landau-Zener (MCLZ) and classical over-the-barrier (COB) models. Much of the data which has been computed has been formatted for inclusion in a charge transfer database on the World Wide Web (cfadc.phy.ornl.gov/astro/ps/data/). A considerable amount of data has been generated during the lifetime of the grant. Some of it has not been analyzed, but it will be as soon as possible, the data placed on our website, and papers ultimately written.

Stancil, Phillip C.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Non-Parametric Collision Probability for Low-Velocity Encounters

An implicit, but not necessarily obvious, assumption in all of the current techniques for assessing satellite collision probability is that the relative position uncertainty is perfectly correlated in time. If there is any mis-modeling of the dynamics in the propagation of the relative position error covariance matrix, time-wise de-correlation of the uncertainty will increase the probability of collision over a given time interval. The paper gives some examples that illustrate this point. This paper argues that, for the present, Monte Carlo analysis is the best available tool for handling low-velocity encounters, and suggests some techniques for addressing the issues just described. One proposal is for the use of a non-parametric technique that is widely used in actuarial and medical studies. The other suggestion is that accurate process noise models be used in the Monte Carlo trials to which the non-parametric estimate is applied. A further contribution of this paper is a description of how the time-wise decorrelation of uncertainty increases the probability of collision.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

NASA NTRS2017

Near Real-Time Probabilistic Damage Diagnosis Using Surrogate Modeling and High Performance Computing

This work investigates novel approaches to probabilistic damage diagnosis that utilize surrogate modeling and high performance computing (HPC) to achieve substantial computational speedup. Motivated by Digital Twin, a structural health management (SHM) paradigm that integrates vehicle-specific characteristics with continual in-situ damage diagnosis and prognosis, the methods studied herein yield near real-time damage assessments that could enable monitoring of a vehicle's health while it is operating (i.e. online SHM). High-fidelity modeling and uncertainty quantification (UQ), both critical to Digital Twin, are incorporated using finite element method simulations and Bayesian inference, respectively. The crux of the proposed Bayesian diagnosis methods, however, is the reformulation of the numerical sampling algorithms (e.g. Markov chain Monte Carlo) used to generate the resulting probabilistic damage estimates. To this end, three distinct methods are demonstrated for rapid sampling that utilize surrogate modeling and exploit various degrees of parallelism for leveraging HPC. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the methods are compared on the problem of strain-based crack identification in thin plates. While each approach has inherent problem-specific strengths and weaknesses, all approaches are shown to provide accurate probabilistic damage diagnoses and several orders of magnitude computational speedup relative to a baseline Bayesian diagnosis implementation.

Warner, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Early Results from the Advanced Radiation Protection Thick GCR Shielding Project

The Advanced Radiation Protection Thick Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) Shielding Project leverages experimental and modeling approaches to validate a predicted minimum in the radiation exposure versus shielding depth curve. Preliminary results of space radiation models indicate that a minimum in the dose equivalent versus aluminum shielding thickness may exist in the 20-30 g/cm2 region. For greater shield thickness, dose equivalent increases due to secondary neutron and light particle production. This result goes against the long held belief in the space radiation shielding community that increasing shielding thickness will decrease risk to crew health. A comprehensive modeling effort was undertaken to verify the preliminary modeling results using multiple Monte Carlo and deterministic space radiation transport codes. These results verified the preliminary findings of a minimum and helped drive the design of the experimental component of the project. In first-of-their-kind experiments performed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, neutrons and light ions were measured between large thicknesses of aluminum shielding. Both an upstream and a downstream shield were incorporated into the experiment to represent the radiation environment inside a spacecraft. These measurements are used to validate the Monte Carlo codes and derive uncertainty distributions for exposure estimates behind thick shielding similar to that provided by spacecraft on a Mars mission. Preliminary results for all aspects of the project will be presented.

Norman, Ryan B.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Monte Carlo calibration of the SMM gamma ray spectrometer for high energy gamma rays and neutrons

The Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS) on the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft was primarily designed and calibrated for nuclear gamma ray line measurements, but also has a high energy mode which allows the detection of gamma rays at energies above 10 MeV and solar neutrons above 20 MeV. The GRS response has been extrapolated until now for high energy gamma rays from an early design study employing Monte Carlo calculations. The response to 50 to 600 MeV solar neutrons was estimated from a simple model which did not consider secondary charged particles escaping into the veto shields. In view of numerous detections by the GRS of solar flares emitting high energy gamma rays, including at least two emitting directly detectable neutrons, the calibration of the high energy mode in the flight model has been recalculated by the use of more sophisticated Monte Carlo computer codes. New results presented show that the GRS response to gamma rays above 20 MeV and to neutrons above 100 MeV is significantly lower than the earlier estimates.

Cooper, J. F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Automated Detection and Analysis of Resident Space Objects with the 1.3-Meter Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope

Optical telescopes dedicated to the detection of orbital debris employ large-area detectors that generate a large number of images each night. Such surveys require automated data analysis pipelines that process the images and detect moving objects. We present an overview of the data analysis pipeline employed by the 1.3-meter Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT) on Ascension Island, operated by NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office. The pipeline enfolds the astrometric and photometric calibration of the images, star-trail removal, object detection, correlation over multiple sequential image frames, and orbital parameter estimation. The performance of the pipeline was investigated by means of Monte-Carlo simulations in which simulated object tracks were inserted into ES-MCAT images and then processed by the pipeline. This technique allows one to confidently estimate the completeness for the detection of resident space objects as a function of apparent magnitude and angular velocity. This paper discusses these techniques and provides examples using actual data.

Paul Hickson↗

NASA NTRS2023

Automated Detection and Analysis of Resident Space Objects with the 1.3-Meter Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope

Paul Hickson↗

NASA NTRS2004

3D Cloud Radiative Effects on Aerosol Optical Thickness Retrievals in Cumulus Cloud Fields in the Biomass Burning Region in Brazil

Aerosol amount in clear regions of a cloudy atmosphere is a critical parameter in studying the interaction between aerosols and clouds. Since the global cloud cover is about 50%, cloudy scenes are often encountered in any satellite images. Aerosols are more or less transparent, while clouds are extremely reflective in the visible spectrum of solar radiation. The radiative transfer in clear-cloudy condition is highly three- dimensional (3D). This paper focuses on estimating the 3D effects on aerosol optical thickness retrievals using Monte Carlo simulations. An ASTER image of cumulus cloud fields in the biomass burning region in Brazil is simulated in this study. The MODIS products (i-e., cloud optical thickness, particle effective radius, cloud top pressure, surface reflectance, etc.) are used to construct the cloud property and surface reflectance fields. To estimate the cloud 3-D effects, we assume a plane-parallel stratification of aerosol properties in the 60 km x 60 km ASTER image. The simulated solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere is compared with plane-parallel calculations. Furthermore, the 3D cloud radiative effects on aerosol optical thickness retrieval are estimated.

Wen, Guo-Yong↗

NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification of a Rotorcraft Conceptual Sizing Toolsuite

A computational framework to support the quantification of system uncertainties and sensitivities for rotorcraft applications is presented using the NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) conceptual sizing tool. A 90 passenger conceptual tiltrotor configuration was used for case demonstration in the modeling of uncertainties in NDARCs emission module. A non-intrusive forward propagation uncertainty quantification approach was applied to ensemble simulations using a Monte Carlo methodology with stratified Latin hypercube sampling. An off-the-shelf software, DAKOTA, which supports trade studies and design space exploration, including optimization, surrogate modeling and uncertainty analysis was used to address the research goals. A toolsuite was further developed incorporating DAKOTA with automated design processes and methods using function wrappers to execute program routines including support for data post-processing. Uncertainties in rotorcraft emissions modeling using the Average Temperature Response metric for a set mission profile were studied. It was shown that for the current study, using the base-line best estimate modeling parameters for the Average Temperature Response metric, NDARC under-estimates the effects of emissions when compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. A global sensitivity analysis was further undertaken to quantify the contribution of the various emission species on output sensitivity, hence uncertainty. The work demonstrates that the developed toolsuite is robust and will support the quantification of system uncertainties and sensitivities in future rotorcraft design efforts.

Rotorcraft↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sleep Disruption Medical Intervention Forecasting (SDMIF) Module for the Integrated Medical Model

The NASA Integrated Medical Model (IMM) assesses the risk, including likelihood and impact of occurrence, of all credible in-flight medical conditions. Fatigue due to sleep disruption is a condition that could lead to operational errors, potentially resulting in loss of mission or crew. Pharmacological consumables are mitigation strategies used to manage the risks associated with sleep deficits. The likelihood of medical intervention due to sleep disruption was estimated with a well validated sleep model and a Monte Carlo computer simulation in an effort to optimize the quantity of consumables. METHODS: The key components of the model are the mission parameter program, the calculation of sleep intensity and the diagnosis and decision module. The mission parameter program was used to create simulated daily sleep/wake schedules for an ISS increment. The hypothetical schedules included critical events such as dockings and extravehicular activities and included actual sleep time and sleep quality. The schedules were used as inputs to the Sleep, Activity, Fatigue and Task Effectiveness (SAFTE) Model (IBR Inc., Baltimore MD), which calculated sleep intensity. Sleep data from an ISS study was used to relate calculated sleep intensity to the probability of sleep medication use, using a generalized linear model for binomial regression. A human yes/no decision process using a binomial random number was also factored into sleep medication use probability. RESULTS: These probability calculations were repeated 5000 times resulting in an estimate of the most likely amount of sleep aids used during an ISS mission and a 95% confidence interval. CONCLUSIONS: These results were transferred to the parent IMM for further weighting and integration with other medical conditions, to help inform operational decisions. This model is a potential planning tool for ensuring adequate sleep during sleep disrupted periods of a mission.

Lewandowski, Beth↗

NASA NTRS1982

Computer program for prediction of fuel consumption statistical data for an upper stage three-axes stabilized on-off control system

A FORTRAN coded computer program and method to predict the reaction control fuel consumption statistics for a three axis stabilized rocket vehicle upper stage is described. A Monte Carlo approach is used which is more efficient by using closed form estimates of impulses. The effects of rocket motor thrust misalignment, static unbalance, aerodynamic disturbances, and deviations in trajectory, mass properties and control system characteristics are included. This routine can be applied to many types of on-off reaction controlled vehicles. The pseudorandom number generation and statistical analyses subroutines including the output histograms can be used for other Monte Carlo analyses problems.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2002

Partially Decentralized Control Architectures for Satellite Formations

In a partially decentralized control architecture, more than one but less than all nodes have supervisory capability. This paper describes an approach to choosing the number of supervisors in such au architecture, based on a reliability vs. cost trade. It also considers the implications of these results for the design of navigation systems for satellite formations that could be controlled with a partially decentralized architecture. Using an assumed cost model, analytic and simulation-based results indicate that it may be cheaper to achieve a given overall system reliability with a partially decentralized architecture containing only a few supervisors, than with either fully decentralized or purely centralized architectures. Nominally, the subset of supervisors may act as centralized estimation and control nodes for corresponding subsets of the remaining subordinate nodes, and act as decentralized estimation and control peers with respect to each other. However, in the context of partially decentralized satellite formation control, the absolute positions and velocities of each spacecraft are unique, so that correlations which make estimates using only local information suboptimal only occur through common biases and process noise. Covariance and monte-carlo analysis of a simplified system show that this lack of correlation may allow simplification of the local estimators while preserving the global optimality of the maneuvers commanded by the supervisors.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗