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At least 199 records · Page 11

A community-based evaluation of proximity to unconventional oil and gas wells, drinking water contaminants, and health symptoms in Ohio

Highlights: • We conducted a community-based study on unconventional oil and gas (UO&G) in Ohio. • We explored UO&G proximity in relation to water contamination and health symptoms. • Contaminant detection and concentrations decreased with greater distance to UO&G. • UO&G proximity was associated with increased general health symptoms (e.g. fatigue). • Communities near UO&G may be more likely to experience environmental health impacts. Over 4 million Americans live within 1.6 km of an unconventional oil and gas (UO&G) well, potentially placing them in the path of toxic releases. We evaluated relationships between residential proximity to UO&G wells and (1) water contamination and (2) health symptoms in an exploratory study. We analyzed drinking water samples from 66 Ohio households for 13 UO&G-related volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (e.g., benzene, disinfection byproducts [DBPs]), gasoline-range organics (GRO), and diesel-range organics. We interviewed participants about health symptoms and calculated metrics capturing proximity to UO&G wells. Based on multivariable logistic regression, odds of detection of bromoform and dibromochloromethane in surface water decreased significantly as distance to nearest UO&G well increased (odds ratios [OR]: 0.28–0.29 per km). Similarly, distance to nearest well was significantly negatively correlated with concentrations of GRO and toluene in ground water (r{sub Spearman}: −0.40 to −0.44) and with concentrations of bromoform and dibromochloromethane in surface water (r{sub Spearman}: −0.48 to −0.50). In our study population, those with higher inverse-distance-squared-weighted UO&G well counts within 5 km around the home were more likely to report experiencing general health symptoms (e.g. stress, fatigue) (OR: 1.52, 95%CI: 1.02–2.26). This exploratory study, though limited by small sample size and self-reported health symptoms, suggests that those in closer proximity to multiple UO&G wells may be more likely to experience environmental health impacts. Further, presence of brominated DBPs (linked to UO&G wastewater) raises the question of whether UO&G activities are impacting drinking water sources in the region. The findings from this study support expanded studies to advance knowledge of the potential for water quality and human health impacts; such studies could include a greater number of sampling sites, more detailed chemical analyses to examine source attribution, and objective health assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

X-Windows PVT Widget Class

The X-Windows Process Validation Table (PVT) Widget Class ( Class is used here in the object-oriented-programming sense of the word) was devised to simplify the task of implementing network registration services for Information Sharing Protocol (ISP) graphical-user-interface (GUI) computer programs. Heretofore, ISP PVT programming tasks have required many method calls to identify, query, and interpret the connections and messages exchanged between a client and a PVT server. Normally, programmers have utilized direct access to UNIX socket libraries to implement the PVT protocol queries, necessitating the use of many lines of source code to perform frequent tasks. Now, the X-Windows PVT Widget Class encapsulates ISP client server network registration management tasks within the framework of an X Windows widget. Use of the widget framework enables an X Windows GUI program to interact with PVT services in an abstract way and in the same manner as that of other graphical widgets, making it easier to program PVT clients. Wrapping the PVT services inside the widget framework enables a programmer to treat a PVT server interface as though it were a GUI. Moreover, an alternate subclass could implement another service in a widget of the same type. This program was written by Matthew R. Barry of United Space Alliance for Johnson Space Center. For further information, contact the Johnson Technology Transfer Office at (281) 483-3809. MSC-23582 Shuttle Data Center File- Processing Tool in Java A Java-language computer program has been written to facilitate mining of data in files in the Shuttle Data Center (SDC) archives. This program can be executed on a variety of workstations or via Web-browser programs. This program is partly similar to prior C-language programs used for the same purpose, while differing from those programs in that it exploits the platform-neutrality of Java in implementing several features that are important for analysis of large sets of time-series data. The program supports regular expression queries of SDC archive files, reads the files, interleaves the time-stamped samples according to a chosen output, then transforms the results into that format. A user can choose among a variety of output file formats that are useful for diverse purposes, including plotting, Markov modeling, multivariate density estimation, and wavelet multiresolution analysis, as well as for playback of data in support of simulation and testing.

Barry, Matthew R.↗

Shuttle Data Center File-Processing Tool in Java

A Java-language computer program has been written to facilitate mining of data in files in the Shuttle Data Center (SDC) archives. This program can be executed on a variety of workstations or via Web-browser programs. This program is partly similar to prior C-language programs used for the same purpose, while differing from those programs in that it exploits the platform-neutrality of Java in implementing several features that are important for analysis of large sets of time-series data. The program supports regular expression queries of SDC archive files, reads the files, interleaves the time-stamped samples according to a chosen output, then transforms the results into that format. A user can choose among a variety of output file formats that are useful for diverse purposes, including plotting, Markov modeling, multivariate density estimation, and wavelet multiresolution analysis, as well as for playback of data in support of simulation and testing.

Barry, Matthew R.↗

Comparing Designed Training Sets to Optimize Multivariate Regression Models for Pr, Nd, and Nitric Acid Using Spectrophotometry

Chemometric regression models were developed for the quantification of praseodymium (Pr, 0–1000 µg/mL), neodymium (Nd, 0–1000 µg/mL), and nitric acid (HNO 3 , 0.1–5 M) using spectrophotometry. Designed calibration sets were composed of 20 samples each: 10 model points and 10 lack-of-fit (LOF) points. The D-optimal designs effectively minimized the number of samples required to build models, and each design resulted in similar prediction performance, suggesting that statistical design of experiments can provide a reliable framework for selecting training set samples in three-variable systems. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models were validated against a one-factor-at-a-time validation set composed of 125 samples (three variables, five levels). The top PLS-1 models resulted in average percent root mean square error of prediction error values of 3.5%, 1.7%, and 1.2% for Pr(III), Nd(III), and HNO 3 , respectively. Power set augmentations of the model and LOF samples were investigated to optimize the number of training set samples. PLSR models built using just required model points (10) had similar predictive capabilities as models including the LOF points (20) but with fewer samples. The number of validation samples was also varied systematically to learn how many samples are needed to validate regression models. This work addresses long-standing questions in the field of chemometrics to help make this approach amenable to the near-real-time quantification of hazardous species in remote settings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Power Prediction of Airborne Wind Energy Systems Using Multivariate Machine Learning

Kites can be used to harvest wind energy at higher altitudes while using only a fraction of the material required for conventional wind turbines. In this work, we present the kite system of Kyushu University and demonstrate how experimental data can be used to train machine learning regression models. The system is designed for 7 kW traction power and comprises an inflatable wing with suspended kite control unit that is either tethered to a fixed ground anchor or to a towing vehicle to produce a controlled relative flow environment. A measurement unit was attached to the kite for data acquisition. To predict the generated tether force, we collected input–output samples from a set of well-designed experimental runs to act as our labeled training data in a supervised machine learning setting. We then identified a set of key input parameters which were found to be consistent with our sensitivity analysis using Pearson input–output correlation metrics. Finally, we designed and tested the accuracy of a neural network, among other multivariate regression models. The quality metrics of our models show great promise in accurately predicting the tether force for new input/feature combinations and potentially guide new designs for optimal power generation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Investigating Kinetic Mechanisms of Soot Formation in Plasma Pyrolysis of Methane via Active Learning (Final Technical Report)

Plasma pyrolysis of methane is an effective route for zero-carbon hydrogen production. Yet, soot generated from pyrolysis of hydrocarbons is detrimental to the climate and human health. There is ample experimental and theoretical evidence that suggests polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the molecular precursors to soot particles. The reaction pathways of PAH formation are intricately dependent on a multitude of process parameters, whose kinetic mechanisms are not well-understood in plasma pyrolysis. This project aims to leverage advances in the kinetic modeling of soot formation in combustion, as well as in surrogate modeling and active learning, to systematically investigate the effects of process parameter on the kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis of methane. To this end, we propose to use the PAH formation kinetics model developed by the PPPL/PU group based on the well-established ABF and HACA mechanisms, coupled with low-temperature plasma models. We will develop an active learning (AL) framework based on Bayesian optimization to systematically and data-efficiently explore the complex and multivariable parameter space of plasma pyrolysis in order to quantify the effects of plasma and feed parameters on the ABF and HACA kinetic pathways. AL is the branch of machine learning concerned with systematically querying samples from a system (experimental or computational) to train a data-driven model that maps design parameters to a performance criterion. We will use the data generated via AL to perform global sensitivity analysis, combined with uncertainty quantification, to elucidate the impact of different reaction pathways on minimizing formation of soot precursors. This study will result in an improved understanding of kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis and can pave the way for more advanced mechanistic studies (e.g., soot nucleation mechanisms). Additionally, the findings will be useful for establishing practical strategies for increasing the pyrolysis efficiency and producing high-grade carbon for synthesis of nanomaterials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Analysis of Inlier and Outlier Compounds with Respect to Artificial Neural Network Cetane Number Prediction Accuracy

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are exceptional at forming non-linear correlations between multivariate input and target variables; however, they are often seen as a “black box” approach, since how ANNs form these correlations is somewhat ambiguous. Furthermore, the process underlying how ANNs learn from inlier and outlier samples within the input dataset is not fully understood. Intuitively, it is expected that training ANNs with inlier samples will increase prediction accuracy and training with outlier samples will reduce prediction accuracy; though, in practice, this is not always true. The present work identifies and analyzes inliers and outliers of existing experimental cetane number (CN) data encompassing a variety of compounds and compound groups. It also investigates how ANNs trained to predict CN perform with and without outliers included in the training data, and whether a relationship exists between inliers/outliers and ANN prediction accuracy across the whole dataset and for individual samples. Additionally, individual outlier compounds are analyzed, highlighting how they structurally differ from inlier compounds.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Acreage estimation, feature selection, and signature extension dependent upon the maximum likelihood decision rule

A maximum likelihood estimation technique is used for the analysis of agricultural remote sensor data. The m-class probability of misclassification is estimated using unlabeled test samples and labeled training samples. A bound on the variance of a proposed unbiased estimator of the m-class probability of error is derived. The particular case in which each class density is assumed to be a mixture of multivariate normal densities is considered. The extension of spectral signatures in space and time is discussed.

Quirein, J. A.↗

Leveraging Machine Learning Capabilities for the Characterization of Irradiated Uranium: A Case Study of Analysis Methods for Nuclear Safeguards and Nuclear Forensics

Nondestructively determining the initial enrichment of irradiated uranium is a complex and laborious multivariable problem due to the presence of fission products. This work demonstrates the capabilities of machine learning to analyze gamma-ray spectral data to determine initial enrichment without knowledge of the decay time of the sample. The approach developed is agnostic to the particular scenario and is applicable to a wide variety of applications in nuclear forensics and nuclear safeguards. We irradiated 5 mg uranium standard reference materials at discrete enrichment values ranging from 0.02% to 97% 235 U (weight percent) in UT Austin’s Nuclear Engineering Teaching Laboratory TRIGA Mark II 1.1 MW research reactor, allowed each to decay for 8 hours, and then measured each sample via gamma-ray spectrometry for 50 hours post-irradiation yielding 1,400 individual gamma-ray spectra discretized into 8,192 energy bins. We then trained decision trees models to analyze individual gamma-ray spectra and estimate the associated initial enrichment without knowledge of the time since end of irradiation. We evaluated the performance of the models with a reserved test set not used for training or calibrating the model. A decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 2.3% (weight percent 235 U). Next, we implemented a principal component analysis pre-processing routine of the gamma-ray spectrometry data to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset from 8,192 channels in the spectrum to 10 principal components while retaining over 99% of the inherent variance in the data. Decision tree models constructed with these data demonstrated decreased mean absolute error in enrichment determination, reduced computational time, and decreased complexity. A single decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 0.05% (weight percent 235 U). Furthermore, we analyzed these models with learning curves to ensure that overfitting did not occur. The capabilities provided by these models can be naturally extended to other application-focused measurements in the fields of nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, and nuclear non-proliferation.

Drescher, Adam↗

Functional Predictor Variables for the Leaching Potential of Arsenic and Selenium from Coal Fly Ash

The release of leachates from intact coal ash impoundments is a concern due to the enrichment and mobilization of toxic elements such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se). This study aims to explore the intrinsic properties of coal fly ash that correlate with the relative leachability of As and Se. We performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic regions. We assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition, and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, and Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

High-resolution land/ice imaging using Seasat scatterometer measurements

A new method for obtaining high-resolution images (to 4 km) of the land backscatter from low-resolution Seasat-A scatterometer (SASS) measurements is introduced. The method utilizes the measurement cell overlap in multiple spacecraft passes over the region of interest and signal processing techniques to generate high-resolution images of the radar backscatter. The overlap is exploited to estimate the underlying high-resolution surface radar backscatter characteristics using a robust multivariate image reconstruction algorithm. The algorithm has been designed to operate in the high-noise environment typical of scatterometer measurements. The ultimate resolution obtainable is a function of the number of measurements and the measurement overlap. Sample results based on SASS data are provided.

Long, D. G.↗

Identifying RR Lyrae Variable Stars in Six Years of the Dark Energy Survey

We present a search for RR Lyrae stars using the full six-year data set from the Dark Energy Survey covering ∼5000 deg2 of the southern sky. Using a multistage multivariate classification and light-curve template-fitting scheme, we identify RR Lyrae candidates with a median of 35 observations per candidate. We detect 6971 RR Lyrae candidates out to ∼335 kpc, and we estimate that our sample is >70% complete at ∼150 kpc. We find excellent agreement with other wide-area RR Lyrae catalogs and RR Lyrae studies targeting the Magellanic Clouds and other Milky Way satellite galaxies. We fit the smooth stellar halo density profile using a broken-power-law model with fixed halo flattening (q = 0.7), and we find strong evidence for a break at with an inner slope of and an outer slope of . We use our catalog to perform a search for Milky Way satellite galaxies with large sizes and low luminosities. Using a set of simulated satellite galaxies, we find that our RR Lyrae-based search is more sensitive than those using resolved stellar populations in the regime of large (r h ≳ 500 pc), low-surface-brightness dwarf galaxies. A blind search for large, diffuse satellites yields three candidate substructures. The first can be confidently associated with the dwarf galaxy Eridanus II. The second has a distance and proper motion similar to the ultrafaint dwarf galaxy Tucana II but is separated by ∼5 deg. The third is close in projection to the globular cluster NGC 1851 but is ∼10 kpc more distant and appears to differ in proper motion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Challenge Posed by Geomagnetic Activity to Electric Power Reliability: Evidence from England and Wales

This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged the reliability of the electric power system during part of the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Operations by National Grid in England and Wales are examined over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 March 2005. This paper examines the relationship between measures of geomagnetic activity and a metric of challenged electric power reliability known as the net imbalance volume (NIV). Measured in megawatt hours, NIV represents the sum of all energy deployments initiated by the system operator to balance the electric power system. The relationship between geomagnetic activity and NIV is assessed using a multivariate econometric model. The model was estimated using half-hour settlement data over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 December 2004. The results indicate that geomagnetic activity had a demonstrable effect on NIV over the sample period. Based on the parameter estimates, out-of-sample predictions of NIV were generated for each half hour over the period of 1 January to 31 March 2005. Consistent with the existence of a causal relationship between geomagnetic activity and the electricity market imbalance, the root-mean-square error of the out-of-sample predictions of NIV is smaller; that is, the predictions are more accurate, when the statistically significant estimated effects of geomagnetic activity are included as drivers in the predictions.

Forbes, Kevin F.↗

Combining Emergent Constraints for Climate Sensitivity

A method is proposed for combining information from several emergent constraints into a probabilistic estimate for a climate sensitivity proxy Y such as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The method is based on fitting a multivariate Gaussian PDF for Y and the emergent constraints using an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs); it can be viewed as a form of multiple linear regression of Y on the constraints. The method accounts for uncertainties in sampling this multidimensional PDF with a small number of models, for observational uncertainties in the constraints, and for overconfidence about the correlation of the constraints with the climate sensitivity. Its general form (Method C) accounts for correlations between the constraints. Method C becomes less robust when some constraints are too strongly related to each other; this can be mitigated using regularization approaches such as ridge regression. An illuminating special case, Method U, neglects any correlations between constraints except through their mutual relationship to the climate proxy; it is more robust to small GCM sample size and is appealingly interpretable. These methods are applied to ECS and the climate feedback parameter using a previously published set of 11 possible emergent constraints derived from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The ±2σ posterior range of ECS for Method C with no overconfidence adjustment is 4.3 ± 0.7 K. For Method U with a large overconfidence adjustment, it is 4.0 ± 1.3 K. This study adds confidence to past findings that most constraints predict higher climate sensitivity than the CMIP mean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monitoring Noble Gases (Xe and Kr) and Aerosols (Cs and Rb) in a Molten Salt Reactor Surrogate Off-Gas Stream Using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS)

In this study with surrogate materials we show that laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a robust tool with promising capability toward monitoring gaseous (Xe and Kr) and aerosol (Cs and Rb) species in an off-gas stream from a molten salt reactor (MSR). MSRs will continually evolve fission products into the cover gas flowing across the reactor headspace. The cover gas entrains Xe and Kr gases, along with aerosol particles, before passing into an off-gas treatment system. Univariate models of Xe and Kr peaks showed a strong correlation to concentration indicated by their coefficients of determination of 0.983 and 0.997, respectively. Multivariate models were built for all four analytes using partial least squares regression coupled with preprocessing steps including normalization, trimming, and/or genetic algorithm derived filters. The models were evaluated by predicting the concentrations of the analytes in four validation samples, in which all calibration models were successfully validated at a confidence interval of 99.9%. Finally, pressure controllers were used to regulate the mass flow rate of Kr flowing into the measurement cell in sinusoidal and stepwise waveforms to test the real-time monitoring capabilities of the regression models. Both univariate and partial least squares Kr models were able to successfully quantify the gas concentration in the real-time evaluation. The root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) values for these real-time tests were calculated to be 0.051, 0.060, and 0.121 mol% demonstrating the measurement systems’ capability to perform online monitoring with acceptable accuracy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Automated Calibration for Rapid Optical Spectroscopy Sensor Development for Online Monitoring

An automated platform has been developed to assist researchers in the rapid development of optical spectroscopy sensors to quantify species from spectral data. This platform performs calibration and validation measurements simultaneously. Real-time, in situ monitoring of complex systems through optical spectroscopy has been shown to be a useful tool; however, building calibration models requires development time, which can be a limiting factor in the case of radiological or otherwise hazardous systems. While calibration time can be reduced through optimized design of experiments, this study approached the challenge differently through automation. The ATLAS (Automated Transient Learning for Applied Sensors) platform used pneumatic control of stock solutions to cycle flow profiles through desired calibration concentrations for multivariate model construction. Additionally, the transients between desired concentrations based on flow calculations were used as validation measurements to understand model predictive capabilities. This automated approach yielded an incredible 76% reduction in model development time and a 60% reduction in sample volume versus estimated manual sample preparation and static measurements. The ATLAS system was demonstrated on two systems: a three-lanthanide system with Pr/Nd/Ho representing a use case with significant overlap or interference between analyte signatures and an alternate system containing Pr/Nd/Ni to demonstrate a use case in which broad-band corrosion species signatures interfered with more distinct lanthanide absorbance profiles. Both systems resulted in strong model prediction performance (RMSEP < 9%). Lastly, ATLAS was demonstrated as a tool to simulate process monitoring scenarios (e.g., column separation) in which models can be further optimized to account for day-to-day changes as necessary (e.g., baseline correction). Ultimately, ATLAS offers a vital tool to rapidly screen monitoring methods, investigate sensor fusion, and explore more complex systems (i.e., larger numbers of species).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Online monitoring of solutions within microfluidic chips: simultaneous Raman and UV-Vis absorption spectroscopies

Microfluidics is an appealing analytical tool in the global effort to close the nuclear fuel cycle. Using a microfluidic chip permits analysis of greatly reduced sample volumes compared to what is necessary for traditional analytical methods. There is a commensurate reduction in disposal volume and cost. Development of spectroscopic methods practicable on the microscale are necessary to take advantage of the microchip configuration. This study uses simultaneously applied UV-vis and micro-Raman spectroscopies adapted to function on the microscale to analyze in situ both the Nd3+ (UV-vis active) and HNO3 (Raman active) concentrations in the same sample. An adjustable translation platform was designed to hold the micro-Raman probe above and perpendicular to the chip face, and the UV-vis probe in the plane of the chip. These complimentary spectral techniques when processed through multivariate PLS (Partial Least Squares) models gave an accurate picture of the widely varying solution concentrations as a function of time for each solution component. Solution matrix effects can drastically alter analyte signatures as measured by both UV-vis absorbance and Raman spectroscopy. PLS methods successfully modeled these spectral changes and accurately measured concentrations of components of interest within the microfluidic chip.

on-line monitoring, microfluidics, Raman, UV-vis↗

The Evolution of Gas in Protoplanetary Systems: The Herschel GASPS Open Time Key Programme

The Gas in Protoplanetary Systems (GASPS) Open Time Key Programme for the Herschel Space Observatory will be the first extensive, systematic survey of gas in circumstellar disks over the critical transition from gas-rich protoplanetary through to gas-poor debris. The brightest spectral lines from disks lie in the far-infrared and arise from radii spanning roughly 10 to 100 AU, where giant planets are expected to form. Herschel is uniquely able to observe this wavelength regime with the sensitivity to allow a large scale survey. We will execute a 2-phase study using the PACS instrument. Phase I is a spectroscopic survey about 250 young stars for fine structure emission lines of [CII] (at 157 microns) and [OI] (at 63 microns). In Phase II, the brightest sources will be followed up with additional PACS spectroscopy ([OI] at 145 microns and some rotational lines of water). We expect that the gas mass sensitivity will be more than an order of magnitude lower than that achieved by ISO and Spitzer or expected for SOFIA. We will also measure the dust continuum to an equivalent mass sensitivity. We will observe several nearby clusters with ages from 1 to 30 Myr, encompassing a wide range of disk masses and stellar luminosities. The sample covers disk evolution from protoplanetary disks through to young debris disks, i.e. the main epoch of planet formation. With this extensive dataset, the GASPS project will: 1) trace gas and dust in the planet formation region across a large multivariate parameter space, 2) provide the first definitive measurement of the gas dissipation timescale in disks, 3) elucidate the evolutionary link between protoplanetary and debris disks, 4) investigate water abundances in the planetforming regions of disks, and 5) provide a huge database of disk observations and models with long-lasting legacy value for follow-up studies.

Roberge, A.↗