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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Hyperfusogenic Mutations Destabilize the Postfusion Six-Helix Bundle of the Measles Virus Fusion Glycoprotein

Fusion of the host membrane and viral envelope by class I viral fusion proteins is driven by the assembly of a postfusion six-helix bundle formed through antiparallel interactions between N-terminal (HR1) and C-terminal (HR2) heptad-repeat regions. Although mutations in these regions of the measles virus (MeV) fusion (F) glycoprotein are known to promote neuropathogenic and hyperfusogenic phenotypes, their effects on postfusion core stability have not been systematically examined. Here, we combine peptide biophysics and X-ray crystallography to interrogate how mutations within the HR2 domain, present in native neuropathogenic MeV isolates (e.g., L454W and N462K) and laboratory-generated hyperfusogenic variants (e.g., L454M and T461A), influence postfusion 6HB assembly. Circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy reveals that, with few exceptions, these mutations decrease postfusion core stability, despite their association with enhanced fusion activity. We also report the first crystal structure of the wild-type MeV postfusion core as well as structures of six hyperfusogenic variants, enabling high-resolution comparison of the molecular basis of destabilization. Structural analysis shows that these effects arise from localized perturbations to steric packing, hydrogen bonding networks, and helix-stabilizing interactions within HR2, while the overall 6HB architecture remains conserved. Together, these results indicate that hyperfusogenic mutations are not associated with stabilization of the postfusion state and are instead consistent with models in which hyperfusogenicity arises from a reduction in the energetic barrier to fusion, potentially through effects on prefusion stability or triggering efficiency. These findings establish key sequence-structure–stability relationships governing coiled-coil assembly and provide a framework for the design of HR1- and HR2-based fusion inhibitors.

Genetics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Responses of Microbes to Modeled Space Radiation

The built environment of spaceships is host to a microbial community that affects crew and craft alike. While the static composition of this community has been characterized and its temporal dynamics examined, the mechanisms controlling its make-up and evolutionary trajectory are not understood. Systematic analyses of microbial diversity show consistent patterns in community composition and function. Understanding these patterns' ecological origins remains a significant challenge, as it requires connecting processes at varying temporal and spatial scales. However, it is clear that the state and trajectories of microbial communities are in-part determined by their physical environment. In this regard, the spaceflight environment includes numerous interacting factors that differentiate it from Earth environments, including an altered atmospheric composition, reduced gravity (and thus altered fluid dynamics), and increased ionizing radiation. These factors impart selective pressures on microbial communities that affect their evolutionary trajectories and thus the risks and benefits these communities represent to crew and craft. The radiation environment of space leads to chronic exposure to low doses and is difficult to mimic on Earth. Thus, little is known about how microbial communities in spacecraft will respond and evolve. Therefore, given the limitations of existing studies, we aim to empirically determine how exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation for thousands of cell divisions affects rates of mutation accumulation in bacteria and the trajectory of their evolution. In this way, we will provide a critical set of data for designing safe and robust space missions. Here we discuss our progress towards this aim, including the construction of exposure facilities, our culturing and analysis approach, and preliminary data.

radiation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Genome analyses reveal population structure and a purple stigma color gene candidate in finger millet

Finger millet is a key food security crop widely grown in eastern Africa, India and Nepal. Long considered a ‘poor man’s crop’, finger millet has regained attention over the past decade for its climate resilience and the nutritional qualities of its grain. To bring finger millet breeding into the 21 st century, here we present the assembly and annotation of a chromosome-scale reference genome. We show that this ~1.3 million years old allotetraploid has a high level of homoeologous gene retention and lacks subgenome dominance. Population structure is mainly driven by the differential presence of large wild segments in the pericentromeric regions of several chromosomes. Trait mapping, followed by variant analysis of gene candidates, reveals that loss of purple coloration of anthers and stigma is associated with loss-of-function mutations in the finger millet orthologs of the maize R1/B1 and Arabidopsis GL3/EGL3 anthocyanin regulatory genes. Proanthocyanidin production in seed is not affected by these gene knockouts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of DNA Vaccine Candidates against Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Cattle

We evaluated four DNA vaccine candidates for their ability to produce virus-like particles (VLPs) and elicit a protective immune response against Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in cattle. Two traditional DNA plasmids and two DNA minicircle constructs were evaluated. Both the pTarget O1P1-3C plasmid and O1P1-3C minicircle encoded a wild-type FMDV 3C protease to process the P1-2A polypeptide, whereas the O1P1-HIV-3CT minicircle used an HIV-1 ribosomal frameshift to down-regulate expression of a mutant 3C protease. A modified pTarget plasmid with a reduced backbone size, mpTarget O1P1-3C LT , used a 3C protease containing two mutations reported to enhance expression. All constructs produced mature FMDV P1 cleavage products in transfected cells, as seen by western blot analysis. Three constructs, O1P1-3C minicircles, pTarget O1P1-3C, and mpTarget O1P1-3C LT plasmids, produced intracellular VLP crystalline arrays detected by electron microscopy. Despite VLP formation in vitro, none of the DNA vaccine candidates elicited protection from clinical disease when administered independently. Administration of pTarget O1P1-3C plasmid enhanced neutralizing antibody titers when used as a priming dose prior to administration of a conditionally licensed adenovirus-vectored FMD vaccine. Further work is needed to develop these DNA plasmid-based constructs into standalone FMD vaccines in cattle.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS2005

Nuclear Radiation Fields on the Mars Surface: Risk Analysis for Long-term Living Environment

Mars, our nearest planet outward from the sun, has been targeted for several decades as a prospective site for expanded human habitation. Background space radiation exposures on Mars are expected to be orders of magnitude higher than on Earth. Recent risk analysis procedures based on detailed dosimetric techniques applicable to sensitive human organs have been developed along with experimental data regarding cell mutation rates resulting from exposures to a broad range of particle types and energy spectra. In this context, simulated exposure and subsequent risk for humans in residence on Mars are examined. A conceptual habitat structure, CAD-modeled with duly considered inherent shielding properties, has been implemented. Body self-shielding is evaluated using NASA standard computerized male and female models. The background environment is taken to consist not only of exposure from incident cosmic ray ions and their secondaries, but also include the contribution from secondary neutron fields produced in the tenuous atmosphere and the underlying regolith.

Brooke M Anderson↗
DOE OSTI2022

CovS inactivation reduces CovR promoter binding at diverse virulence factor encoding genes in group A Streptococcus

The control of virulence gene regulator (CovR), also called caspsule synthesis regulator (CsrR), is critical to how the major human pathogen group A Streptococcus fine-tunes virulence factor production. CovR phosphorylation (CovR~P) levels are determined by its cognate sensor kinase CovS, and functional abrogating mutations in CovS can occur in invasive GAS isolates leading to hypervirulence. Presently, the mechanism of CovR-DNA binding specificity is unclear, and the impact of CovS inactivation on global CovR binding has not been assessed. Thus, we performed CovR chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing (ChIP-seq) analysis in the emm1 strain MGAS2221 and its CovS kinase deficient derivative strain 2221-CovS-E281A. We identified that CovR bound in the promoter regions of nearly all virulence factor encoding genes in the CovR regulon. Additionally, direct CovR binding was observed for numerous genes encoding proteins involved in amino acid metabolism, but we found limited direct CovR binding to genes encoding other transcriptional regulators. The consensus sequence AATRANAAAARVABTAAA was present in the promoters of genes directly regulated by CovR, and mutations of highly conserved positions within this motif relieved CovR repression of the hasA and MGAS2221_0187 promoters. Analysis of strain 2221-CovS-E281A revealed that binding of CovR at repressed, but not activated, promoters is highly dependent on CovR~P state. CovR repressed virulence factor encoding genes could be grouped dependent on how CovR~P dependent variation in DNA binding correlated with gene transcript levels. Taken together, the data show that CovR repression of virulence factor encoding genes is primarily direct in nature, involves binding to a newly-identified DNA binding motif, and is relieved by CovS inactivation. These data provide new mechanistic insights into one of the most important bacterial virulence regulators and allow for subsequent focused investigations into how CovR-DNA interaction at directly controlled promoters impacts GAS pathogenesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring Local Vibrational Structure in Protein-Bound Chlorophyll a: Isotope-Enrichment Experiments and Electrostatic Analysis

Local chlorophyll (Chl) vibrations play an essential role in biological photosynthesis by facilitating rapid energy transfer between pigments. In research studies, they also provide a useful spectroscopic probe of the local protein environment that surrounds each pigment. However, measuring the complete vibrational absorption spectrum of a protein-bound Chl molecule is much more difficult than, for example, Chl in neat solvent due to overlap with protein vibrations that typically drown out Chl vibrational features. Resonance Raman and fluorescence spectroscopies provide a way around this problem for Franck–Condon active vibrations, but these often rely on cryogenic measurement conditions and fail to capture vibrational signatures from, e.g., ester-group vibrations that lack coupling to a convenient electronic transition. In the present contribution, we use 13 C-enrichment of the protein backbone to shift protein background signals to lower frequency, providing a largely clean spectral window in which to study local Chl a C═O stretch modes. A room-temperature absorption spectrum for Chl a in the water-soluble chlorophyll protein (WSCP) of Lepidium virginicum is thus extracted as a difference between protein-plus-pigment and protein-only vibrational spectra. Excellent agreement in the molecular fingerprint region with the vibrational spectrum of Chl a in organic solvents confirms that the resulting spectrum represents the response of the protein-bound Chl a molecule. Furthermore, the ester group resonance is observed to shift in response to the S53P mutation that eliminates a 17 3 ester group hydrogen bond from the protein environment. Finally, we analyze these experimental results using MD-based electrostatic analysis, finding that electric-field mapping at the C atom of the ester group provides a satisfactory explanation for the observed frequency shifts between organic solvent and protein environment. MD analysis further suggests that a red-shifted ester peak observed experimentally for the S53P mutant results from solvation of the 17 3 Chl ester group due increase water penetration into the Chl-binding pocket relative to wild-type WSCP. Here, we anticipate that these results will prove useful both for benchmarking future simulation work and as a reference for interpreting Chl vibrational spectra as a probe of pigment–protein interactions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A genome assembly and the somatic genetic and epigenetic mutation rate in a wild long-lived perennial Populus trichocarpa

Abstract Background Plants can transmit somatic mutations and epimutations to offspring, which in turn can affect fitness. Knowledge of the rate at which these variations arise is necessary to understand how plant development contributes to local adaption in an ecoevolutionary context, particularly in long-lived perennials. Results Here, we generate a new high-quality reference genome from the oldest branch of a wild Populus trichocarpa tree with two dominant stems which have been evolving independently for 330 years. By sampling multiple, age-estimated branches of this tree, we use a multi-omics approach to quantify age-related somatic changes at the genetic, epigenetic, and transcriptional level. We show that the per-year somatic mutation and epimutation rates are lower than in annuals and that transcriptional variation is mainly independent of age divergence and cytosine methylation. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the somatic epimutation spectrum indicates that transgenerationally heritable epimutations originate mainly from DNA methylation maintenance errors during mitotic rather than during meiotic cell divisions. Conclusion Taken together, our study provides unprecedented insights into the origin of nucleotide and functional variation in a long-lived perennial plant.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of Polar Mutations on the Electronic and Structural Properties of Q A –· in Bacterial Reaction Centers

Reaction centers from Rb. sphaeroides with residue M265 mutated from isoleucine to threonine, serine, and asparagine (M265IT, M265IS, and M265IN, respectively) in the Q A –· state are studied by high-resolution ESEEM and ENDOR spectroscopies to investigate the structural characteristics of these mutants influencing the redox properties of the Q A site. All three mutants decrease the redox midpoint potential (E m ) of Q A by ~0.1 V, yet the mechanism for this drop in E m is unclear. In this work, we examine (i) the hydrogen bonding interactions between Q A –· and residues histidine M219 and alanine M260, (ii) the electron spin density distribution of the semiquinone, and (iii) the orientations of the ubiquinone methoxy substituents. 13 C measurements show no significant contribution of methoxy dihedral angles to the observed decrease in E m for the Q A mutants. Instead, 14 N three-pulse ESEEM data suggest electrostatic or hydrogen bond formation between the mutated M265 side chain and His-M219 N δ may be involved in the observed lowering of the Q A midpoint potential. For mutant M265IN, analysis of the proton hyperfine couplings reveals a weakened hydrogen bond network, resulting in an altered Q A –· spin density distribution. Here, the magnetic resonance study presented here is therefore most consistent with an electrostatic or structural perturbation of the His-M219 N δ hydrogen bond in these mutants as a mechanism for the ~0.1 V decrease in Q A E m .

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncovering DNA-PKcs ancient phylogeny, unique sequence motifs and insights for human disease

DNA-dependent protein kinase catalytic subunit (DNA-PKcs) is a key member of the phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase-like (PIKK) family of protein kinases with critical roles in DNA-double strand break repair, transcription, metastasis, mitosis, RNA processing, and innate and adaptive immunity. The absence of DNA-PKcs from many model organisms has led to the assumption that DNA-PKcs is a vertebrate-specific PIKK. Here, we find that DNA-PKcs is widely distributed in invertebrates, fungi, plants, and protists, and that threonines 2609, 2638, and 2647 of the ABCDE cluster of phosphorylation sites are highly conserved amongst most Eukaryotes. Furthermore, we identify highly conserved amino acid sequence motifs and domains that are characteristic of DNA-PKcs relative to other PIKKs. These include residues in the Forehead domain and a novel motif we have termed YRPD, located in an α helix C-terminal to the ABCDE phosphorylation site loop. Combining sequence with biochemistry plus structural data on human DNA-PKcs unveils conserved sequence and conformational features with functional insights and implications. The defined generally progressive DNA-PKcs sequence diversification uncovers conserved functionality supported by Evolutionary Trace analysis, suggesting that for many organisms both functional sites and evolutionary pressures remain identical due to fundamental cell biology. The mining of cancer genomic data and germline mutations causing human inherited disease reveal that robust DNA-PKcs activity in tumors is detrimental to patient survival, whereas germline mutations compromising function are linked to severe immunodeficiency and neuronal degeneration. We anticipate that these collective results will enable ongoing DNA-PKcs functional analyses with biological and medical implications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The International Space Station Environment Triggers Molecular Responses in Aspergillus niger

Due to immense phenotypic plasticity and adaptability, Aspergillus niger is a cosmopolitan fungus that thrives in versatile environments, including the International Space Station (ISS). This is the first report of genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic alterations observed in A. niger strain JSC-093350089 grown in a controlled experiment aboard the ISS. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) revealed that ISS conditions, including microgravity and enhanced irradiation, triggered non-synonymous point mutations in specific regions, chromosomes VIII and XII of the JSC-093350089 genome when compared to the ground-grown control. Proteome analysis showed altered abundance of proteins involved in carbohydrate metabolism, stress response, and cellular amino acid and protein catabolic processes following growth aboard the ISS. Metabolome analysis further confirmed that space conditions altered molecular suite of ISS-grown A. niger JSC-093350089. After regrowing both strains on Earth, production of antioxidant—Pyranonigrin A was significantly induced in the ISS-flown, but not the ground control strain. In summary, the microgravity and enhanced irradiation triggered unique molecular responses in the A. niger JSC-093350089 suggesting adaptive responses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Free Energy and Flexibility Analysis of Autoinhibited Human BRAF

The RAF serine/threonine protein kinases function as direct effectors of RAS in the intracellular transmission of extracellular growth signals, and they are key targets for drug discovery, given the high incidence of oncogenic mutations in RAF and other components of this signaling pathway. In its inactive state, RAF is held in an autoinhibited conformation in the cytosol through a combination of intramolecular interactions and binding to a regulatory 14−3−3 protein dimer. Activation of RAF is initiated by its interaction with membrane-localized GTP-bound RAS, which induces conformational changes that release RAF from its autoinhibited state. However, the molecular mechanisms governing RAF activation remain incomplete, largely due to the challenges in experimentally capturing the intermediate conformational states in this process. To address this gap, we developed a comprehensive all-atom model of BRAF based on existing cryo-EM structures. Using this model, we performed extensive molecular dynamics simulations to evaluate the stability and free energy landscape of autoinhibited BRAF in solution. Our analysis reveals conformational flexibility within the autoinhibited complex, suggesting that this dynamic behavior may play a role in facilitating BRAF activation upon engagement with the membrane-bound RAS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2004

Microelectronic DNA assay for the detection of BRCA1 gene mutations

Mutations in BRCA1 are characterized by predisposition to breast cancer, ovarian cancer and prostate cancer as well as colon cancer. Prognosis for this cancer survival depends upon the stage at which cancer is diagnosed. Reliable and rapid mutation detection is crucial for the early diagnosis and treatment. We developed an electronic assay for the detection of a representative single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), deletion and insertion in BRCA1 gene by the microelectronics microarray instrumentation. The assay is rapid, and it takes 30 minutes for the immobilization of target DNA samples, hybridization, washing and readout. The assay is multiplexing since it is carried out at the same temperature and buffer conditions for each step. The assay is also highly specific, as the signal-to-noise ratio is much larger than recommended value (72.86 to 321.05 vs. 5) for homozygotes genotyping, and signal ratio close to the perfect value 1 for heterozygotes genotyping (1.04).

Validation Studies↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Comparison of Genotyping Assays for Detection of Targeted CRISPR/Cas Mutagenesis in Highly Polyploid Sugarcane

Sugarcane ( Saccharum spp.) is an important biofuel feedstock and a leading source of global table sugar. Saccharum hybrid cultivars are highly polyploid (2n = 100–130), containing large numbers of functionally redundant hom(e)ologs in their genomes. Genome editing with sequence-specific nucleases holds tremendous promise for sugarcane breeding. However, identification of plants with the desired level of co-editing within a pool of primary transformants can be difficult. While DNA sequencing provides direct evidence of targeted mutagenesis, it is cost-prohibitive as a primary screening method in sugarcane and most other methods of identifying mutant lines have not been optimized for use in highly polyploid species. In this study, non-sequencing methods of mutant screening, including capillary electrophoresis (CE), Cas9 RNP assay, and high-resolution melt analysis (HRMA), were compared to assess their potential for CRISPR/Cas9-mediated mutant screening in sugarcane. These assays were used to analyze sugarcane lines containing mutations at one or more of six sgRNA target sites. All three methods distinguished edited lines from wild type, with co-mutation frequencies ranging from 2% to 100%. Cas9 RNP assays were able to identify mutant sugarcane lines with as low as 3.2% co-mutation frequency, and samples could be scored based on undigested band intensity. CE was highlighted as the most comprehensive assay, delivering precise information on both mutagenesis frequency and indel size to a 1 bp resolution across all six targets. This represents an economical and comprehensive alternative to sequencing-based genotyping methods which could be applied in other polyploid species.

Genomics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of genotyping assays for detection of targeted CRISPR/Cas mutagenesis in highly polyploid sugarcane

Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) is an important biofuel feedstock and a leading source of global table sugar. Saccharum hybrid cultivars are highly polyploid (2n = 100–130), containing large numbers of functionally redundant hom(e)ologs in their genomes. Genome editing with sequence-specific nucleases holds tremendous promise for sugarcane breeding. However, identification of plants with the desired level of co-editing within a pool of primary transformants can be difficult. While DNA sequencing provides direct evidence of targeted mutagenesis, it is cost-prohibitive as a primary screening method in sugarcane and most other methods of identifying mutant lines have not been optimized for use in highly polyploid species. In this study, non-sequencing methods of mutant screening, including capillary electrophoresis (CE), Cas9 RNP assay, and high-resolution melt analysis (HRMA), were compared to assess their potential for CRISPR/Cas9-mediated mutant screening in sugarcane. These assays were used to analyze sugarcane lines containing mutations at one or more of six sgRNA target sites. All three methods distinguished edited lines from wild type, with co-mutation frequencies ranging from 2% to 100%. Cas9 RNP assays were able to identify mutant sugarcane lines with as low as 3.2% co-mutation frequency, and samples could be scored based on undigested band intensity. CE was highlighted as the most comprehensive assay, delivering precise information on both mutagenesis frequency and indel size to a 1 bp resolution across all six targets. This represents an economical and comprehensive alternative to sequencing-based genotyping methods which could be applied in other polyploid species.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The molecular mechanism of sialic acid transport mediated by Sialin

Malfunction of the sialic acid transporter caused by various genetic mutations in the SLC17A5 gene encoding Sialin leads to a spectrum of neurodegenerative conditions called free sialic acid storage disorders. Unfortunately, how Sialin transports sialic acid/proton (H + ) and how pathogenic mutations impair its function are poorly defined. Here, we present the structure of human Sialin in an inward-facing partially open conformation determined by cryo–electron microscopy, representing the first high-resolution structure of any human SLC17 member. Our analysis reveals two unique features in Sialin: (i) The H + coupling/sensing requires two highly conserved Glu residues (E171 and E175) instead of one (E175) as implied in previous studies; and (ii) the normal function of Sialin requires the stabilization of a cytosolic helix, which has not been noticed in the literature. By mapping known pathogenic mutations, we provide mechanistic explanations for corresponding functional defects. We propose a structure-based mechanism for sialic acid transport mediated by Sialin.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Allosterically coupled conformational dynamics in solution prepare the sterol transfer protein StarD4 to release its cargo upon interaction with target membranes

Complex mechanisms regulate the cellular distribution of cholesterol, a critical component of eukaryote membranes involved in regulation of membrane protein functions directly and through the physiochemical properties of membranes. StarD4, a member of the steroidogenic acute regulator-related lipid-transfer (StART) domain (StARD)-containing protein family, is a highly efficient sterol-specific transfer protein involved in cholesterol homeostasis. Its mechanism of cargo loading and release remains unknown despite recent insights into the key role of phosphatidylinositol phosphates in modulating its interactions with target membranes. We have used large-scale atomistic Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to study how the dynamics of cholesterol bound to the StarD4 protein can affect interaction with target membranes, and cargo delivery. We identify the two major cholesterol (CHL) binding modes in the hydrophobic pocket of StarD4, one near S136&S147 (the Ser-mode), and another closer to the putative release gate located near W171, R92&Y117 (the Trp-mode). We show that conformational changes of StarD4 associated directly with the transition between these binding modes facilitate the opening of the gate. To understand the dynamics of this connection we apply a machine-learning algorithm for the detection of rare events in MD trajectories (RED), which reveals the structural motifs involved in the opening of a front gate and a back corridor in the StarD4 structure occurring together with the spontaneous transition of CHL from the Ser-mode of binding to the Trp-mode. Further analysis of MD trajectory data with the information-theory based NbIT method reveals the allosteric network connecting the CHL binding site to the functionally important structural components of the gate and corridor. Mutations of residues in the allosteric network are shown to affect the performance of the allosteric connection. These findings outline an allosteric mechanism which prepares the CHL-bound StarD4 to release and deliver the cargo when it is bound to the target membrane.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the strength of selection for new SARS-CoV-2 variants

Abstract Controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic becomes increasingly challenging as the virus adapts to human hosts through the continual emergence of more transmissible variants. Simply observing that a variant is increasing in frequency is relatively straightforward, but more sophisticated methodology is needed to determine whether a new variant is a global threat and the magnitude of its selective advantage. We present two models for quantifying the strength of selection for new and emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 relative to the background of contemporaneous variants. These methods range from a detailed model of dynamics within one country to a broad analysis across all countries, and they include alternative explanations such as migration and drift. We find evidence for strong selection favoring the D614G spike mutation and B.1.1.7 (Alpha), weaker selection favoring B.1.351 (Beta), and no advantage of R.1 after it spreads beyond Japan. Cutting back data to earlier time horizons reveals that uncertainty is large very soon after emergence, but that estimates of selection stabilize after several weeks. Our results also show substantial heterogeneity among countries, demonstrating the need for a truly global perspective on the molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗