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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the elevated water vapor signal associated with the free tropospheric biomass burning plume over the southeast Atlantic Ocean

In southern Africa, widespread agricultural fires produce substantial biomass burning (BB) emissions over the region. The seasonal smoke plumes associated with these emissions are then advected westward over the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean, resulting in aerosol effects which vary with time and location. Much work has focused on the effects of these aerosol plumes, but previous studies have also described an elevated free tropospheric water vapor signal over the SEA. Water vapor influences climate in its own right, and it is especially important to consider atmospheric water vapor when quantifying aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects. Here we present airborne observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the SEA Ocean. In observations collected from multiple independent instruments on the NASA P-3 aircraft (from near-surface to 6-7 km), we observe a strongly linear correlation between pollution indicators (carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol loading) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. The focus of the current study is on the especially strong correlation observed during the ORACLES-2016 deployment (out of Walvis Bay, Namibia), but a similar relationship is also observed in the August 2017 and October 2018 ORACLES deployments. Using reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and specialized WRF-Chem simulations, we trace the plume-vapor relationship to an initial humid, smoky continental source region, where it mixes with clean, dry upper tropospheric air and then is subjected to conditions of strong westward advection, namely the southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S). Our analysis indicates that air masses likely left the continent with the same relationship between water vapor and carbon monoxide as was observed by aircraft. This linear relationship developed over the continent due to daytime convection within a deep continental boundary layer (up to ~5-6 km) and mixing with higher-altitude air, which resulted in fairly consistent vertical gradients in CO and water vapor, decreasing with altitude and varying in time, but this water vapor does not originate as a product of the BB combustion itself. Due to a combination of conditions and mixing between the smoky, moist continental boundary layer and the dry and fairly clean upper-troposphere air above (~6 km), the smoky, humid air is transported by strong zonal winds and then advected over the SEA (to the ORACLES flight region) following largely isentropic trajectories. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) back trajectories support this interpretation. This work thus gives insights into the conditions and processes which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength. Better understanding of this relationship, including how it varies spatially and temporally, is important to accurately quantify direct, semi-direct, and indirect aerosol effects over this region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate optimization of variational quantum circuits

Variational quantum eigensolvers are touted as a near-term algorithm capable of impacting many applications. However, the potential has not yet been realized, with few claims of quantum advantage and high resource estimates, especially due to the need for optimization in the presence of noise. Finding algorithms and methods to improve convergence is important to accelerate the capabilities of near-term hardware for VQE or more broad applications of hybrid methods in which optimization is required. To this goal, we look to use modern approaches developed in circuit simulations and stochastic classical optimization, which can be combined to form a surrogate optimization approach to quantum circuits. Using an approximate (classical CPU/GPU) state vector simulator as a surrogate model, we efficiently calculate an approximate Hessian, passed as an input for a quantum processing unit or exact circuit simulator. This method will lend itself well to parallelization across quantum processing units. We demonstrate the capabilities of such an approach with and without sampling noise and a proof-of-principle demonstration on a quantum processing unit utilizing 40 qubits.

Gustafson, Erik J. [RIACS, Mtn. View] (ORCID:00000↗
DOE OSTI2023

Outgassing behavior and heat treatment optimization of JSC-1A lunar regolith simulant

As NASA strives towards a long duration presence on the Moon, it has become increasingly important to learn how to better utilize resources from the lunar surface for everything from habitats, vehicle infrastructure, and chemical extraction. To that end, a variety of lunar simulants have been sourced from terrestrially available volcanic minerals and glass as Apollo regolith is unavailable for experimentation needing large masses. However, while mineralogy and chemical composition can approach that of lunar material in these simulants, there are still distinct non-lunar phases such as hydrates, carbonates, sulfates, and clays that can cause simulants to behave distinctly non-lunar in a variety of processing conditions that maybe applied in-situ to lunar material. Notably, severe glassy bubbling has been documented in a variety of vacuum sintering experiments on JSC-1A lunar mare simulant heated via microwaves. The origins of this outgassing have not been well understood but are normally attributed to the decomposition of non-lunar contaminates intrinsic to virtually all terrestrially sourced simulants. As such, a series of controlled environmental tests were performed to ascertain the origins of the high temperature outgassing and to develop heat treatments that can drive JSC-1A closer to lunar composition and behavior. It was found that in JSC-1A at elevated temperatures distinct gas evolutions of water, carbon dioxide, and sulfur dioxide occur in both inert gas and vacuum. Additionally, the presence of hydrogen during heat treatments was shown to dramatically change gas evolutions, leading to distinctly more lunar-like composition and behavior from JSC-1A simulant.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Maps of Arctic vegetation leaf nitrogen concentration, albedo and plant functional type (PFT) derived from imaging spectroscopy data, Council watershed, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019

Remote sensing maps of surface albedo, leaf nitrogen content, and plant functional types (PFTs) derived from NASA's Airborne Visible / Infrared Imaging Spectrometer Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science & Technology (TEST) group at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The AVIRIS-NG imaging spectroscopy data (380 ~ 2510 nm) was collected as a part of the collaboration between NASA's Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE; Miller et al., 2019) and DOE's Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment in the Arctic (NGEE-Arctic). This package includes maps for the NGEE-Arctic Council watershed created using AVIRIS-NG imagery collected on July 9th, 2019. The map data and metadata are provided as image (ENVI, *.png) and text (*.txt, *hdr) formats. Additional supporting map quicklooks are provided as *.png files and GIS *.kml files. Detailed description of the methods for each map are provided in this document. These datasets are provided in support of Figure 6 in Nelson et al., (2022), "Remote Sensing of Tundra Ecosystems using High Spectral Resolution Reflectance: Opportunities and Challenges". The full citation can be found within the references section. Note that the AVIRIS-NG leaf nitrogen product included in this dataset is a preliminary product and is provided for demonstration purposes only. It is not recommended that the map be used for scientific applications. For future updates on these products, please contact the authors.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Systems Biology Approach to Energy Flow in H 2 Producing Microbial Communities: Microbial Mats

This report describes the results of work conducted at NASA Ames Research Center, in collaboration with investigators at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, during the time period 12/15/2014 to 12/15/2017. The work was an extension of a collaboration with LLNL that began in 2008. Work this reporting period focused primarily on tasks related to microbial mats from both the Elkhorn Slough and Baja California field sites, including the analysis and publication of data produced prior to 12/15/2014. During this reporting period, in addition to the microbial mat work, we also conducted a series of experiments with a particular algal-bacterial association (C. sorokiniana and A. brasilense). A number of aspects of this well-characterized algal-bacterial association enabled us not only to further our understanding of interactions between these particular organisms, but to apply that knowledge and techniques to our collection of microorganisms isolated from microbial mats. Microbial mat experiments focused both on intact mat communities and on cultures of organisms isolated from the mats (the Microbial Mat Living Library). In a series of co-culture experiments, we documented both positive and negative interactions amongst heterotrophic and autotrophic isolates of microbial mat microorganisms. One particularly important and novel mat cyanobacterium (ESFC-1) was studied in detail. We developed techniques to pursue an investigation of functional redundancy (the idea that closely related organisms perform identical roles in a community) in cyanobacterial autotrophs in the Elkhorn Slough microbial mat. In those experiments, we documented numerous instances of increases in growth rate between co-cultures of two organisms (relative to their growth rate in isolation) performing what would seem to be identical functional roles. Simplified microbial mat communities consisting of organisms from the Microbial Mat Living Library were constructed and studied in laboratory experiments. The “constructed mats” were grown in standard laboratory glassware and plasticware, but cultures were also combined with artificial materials in an effort to re-create the three-dimensional structure of naturally occurring microbial mats. These constructed mats re-created a number of functions attributable to natural microbial mats (N-fixation, H2-production) and simplified their study using molecular ecological techniques due to the smaller number of microbial “species” present. Cyanobacteria which migrated in response to vertical variations in light intensity (irradiance) obtained characteristic positions in constructed mats that were similar to their positions in natural mats. A detailed investigation of nitrogen cycling in both the Baja California and Elkhorn Slough microbial mats was initiated during this reporting period. The nitrogen cycle in the microbial mats has not been studied in depth, despite the fact that nitrogen usually limits growth in marine environments. The organisms conducting nitrogen cycling in both microbial mats were studied using the genomes available from earlier work on these mats, as well as with a targeted approach using molecular ecological methods developed here. Quantitative measurements of rates of nitrogen transformations were made using stable isotopically labeled nitrogen. The processes quantified and examined using molecular ecological methods included: nitrogen fixation, ammonification, ammonium and nitrate assimilation, denitrification, anaerobic oxidation of ammonium, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium. In a series of experiments designed to examine a potential application for microbial mats, we demonstrated that both Elkhorn Slough and Baja California microbial mats were very effective in removing large quantities of both nitrate and ammonium from waste streams containing these compounds at levels where they would be considered to be pollutants. Considerable effort was expended during this reporting period to analyze, and prepare for publication, metagenomes and metatranscriptomes collected from two experimental manipulations of microbial mats. The first, a diel study, was conducted in November 2011, while the second, an investigation of the effects of sulfate on community composition, was conducted during this reporting period. For the earlier study, reference-based and reference-free methods were used to assess microbial ecology and genetic partitioning in these complex microbial systems, and that work is available as a pre-print. Four metagenomes from the same experiment were published. In the second, longer (nearly 200 day) manipulation, rRNA iTag libraries for cDNA and DNA were analyzed to determine the effects of sulfate concentration on microbial mat community composition over the course of the experiment. Work on the algal-bacterial association (Chlorella sorokiniana and Azospirillum brasilense) focused initially on demonstrating the transfer of carbon and nitrogen between the partners, using stable isotopic labeling and the LLNL NanoSIMS. Subsequently, the potential role of diazotrophy (nitrogen fixation) by the bacterial partner in supporting the growth of the association was assessed in a series of experiments. It appears to be the case that, although the bacterial partner demonstrably increases the fitness of the algae under nitrogen limitation, and cells of C. sorokiniana receive nitrogen originally fixed from atmospheric nitrogen by A. brasilense, the amount of nitrogen obtained by diazotrophy is too small to explain the increase in fitness.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

A U.S. scientific community review of carbon cycle science gaps and opportunities to better support earth system science and carbon management

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to grow, while natural carbon reservoirs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures, climate extremes, and disturbance. These changes are impacting humans, ecosystems, and natural resources worldwide. Tracking and mitigating GHG emissions require a pivot to operational monitoring of regional carbon flux and stock changes. The current GHG observing system is addressing needs at two distinct scales: 1) Local scale (< 1 km), related to anthropogenic point source emissions, and 2) global scales (> 1000 km), related to land and ocean carbon sinks. More focus on intermediate (10–1000 km) scales is needed to more effectively monitor progress in reducing carbon emissions, enhancing removals, and maintaining sinks. Representatives from carbon cycle biomass and flux communities across United States government agencies and academic institutions met in September 2024 to discuss the rationale and scientific context for more effectively implementing an operational system for GHG monitoring in support of urban and national carbon management needs. To guide development of this system, we propose a multi-tiered global spaceborne observing framework for carbon flux and stock, prioritizing: 1) frequent GHG partial columns for carbon emissions and removals; 2) continuous time series and data fusion of biomass from Lidar and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for carbon stocks, and 3) expanded coverage of tropical, high latitude, and oceanic regions to monitor carbon cycle tipping points and feedbacks. This system should be complemented by expanded surface and airborne networks for oceanic and terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems for calibration, ground truthing, and study of under-sampled regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Classical Preoptimization Approach for ADAPT-VQE: Maximizing the Potential of High-Performance Computing Resources to Improve Quantum Simulation of Chemical Applications

The ADAPT-VQE algorithm is a promising method for generating a compact ansatz based on derivatives of the underlying cost function, and it yields accurate predictions of electronic energies for molecules. In this work, we report the implementation and performance of ADAPT-VQE with our recently developed sparse wave function circuit solver (SWCS) in terms of accuracy and efficiency for molecular systems with up to 52 spin orbitals. The SWCS can be tuned to balance computational cost and accuracy, which extends the application of ADAPT-VQE for molecular electronic structure calculations to larger basis sets and a larger number of qubits. Using this tunable feature of the SWCS, we propose an alternative optimization procedure for ADAPT-VQE to reduce the computational cost of the optimization. Furthermore, by preoptimizing a quantum simulation with a parametrized ansatz generated with ADAPT-VQE/SWCS, we aim to utilize the power of classical high-performance computing in order to minimize the work required on noisy intermediate-scale quantum hardware, which offers a promising path toward demonstrating quantum advantage for chemical applications.

ADAPT-VQE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate Constructed Scalable Circuits ADAPT-VQE in the Schwinger model

Inspired by recent advancements of simulating periodic systems on quantum computers, we develop a new approach, (SC)$^2$-ADAPT-VQE, to further advance the simulation of these systems. Our approach extends the scalable circuits ADAPT-VQE framework, which builds an ansatz from a pool of coordinate-invariant operators defined for arbitrarily large, though not arbitrarily small, volumes. Our method uses a classically tractable ``Surrogate Constructed'' method to remove irrelevant operators from the pool, reducing the minimum size for which the scalable circuits are defined. Bringing together the scalable circuits and the surrogate constructed approaches forms the core of the (SC)$^2$ methodology. Our approach allows for a wider set of classical computations, on small volumes, which can be used for a more robust extrapolation protocol. While developed in the context of lattice models, the surrogate construction portion is applicable to a wide variety of problems where information about the relative importance of operators in the pool is available. As an example, we use it to compute properties of the Schwinger model - quantum electrodynamics for a single, massive fermion in $1+1$ dimensions - and show that our method can be used to accurately extrapolate to the continuum limit.

Gustafson, Erik [RIACS, Mtn. View] (ORCID:00000001↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical Survey of Magnetic Flux Integral Quantities in Saturn's Magnetosphere

Magnetic flux integral quantities (e.g., flux tube entropy, flux tube content) are conserved quantities under the frozen-in assumption. The change of these quantities often indicates the violation of the frozen-in condition (e.g., interchange instability). In this study, we combine the Cassini CAPS and CHEMS moments data with a steady-state magnetic field model (i.e., the Caudal model) to estimate the flux tube mass and flux tube entropy in Saturn's magnetosphere. Our statistical survey found that the flux tube mass rapidly decreases with radial distance away from Saturn in the inner magnetosphere and roughly levels out in the middle magnetosphere. This indicates that the radial transport processes could occur via a double-reconnection process in the inner magnetosphere, while the radial transport processes appear to be more advective in the middle magnetosphere. Notice that Saturn's magnetosphere is stabilized by a radially increasing profile of flux tube entropy and destabilized by a radially decreasing profile of flux tube content. In this study, we also estimate the expected penetration location by using the flux tube interchange stability formalism developed by Southwood and Kivelson (1987, https://doi.org/10.1029/ja092ia01p00109). The results show that flux tube entropy can play a crucial role in braking the injections, while the flux tube content has a relatively smaller influence on the injected flux tube, being consistent with our previous case study by Wing et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac85b2).

Ma, Xuanye [Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Signatures of aerosol-cloud interactions in GiOcean: a coupled global reanalysis with two-moment cloud microphysics

Aerosols influence the Earth's radiative balance through direct interactions with radiation and by affecting cloud properties. Anthropogenic aerosols have led to cooling during the industrial era through aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI), including aerosol effects on cloud microphysical properties and the subsequent adjustments. However, large uncertainties remain in Earth system models (ESMs) regarding the magnitude of this cooling. In part, ESMs substantially disagree on cloud properties, thermodynamics, the hydrological cycle, and general circulation. Reanalysis provides a useful avenue for exploring the impact of ACI on clouds and radiation because its atmosphere is forced to match realistic conditions through the assimilation of observations. Here, we explore the impact of ACI on clouds in the GiOcean reanalysis – the first to incorporate aerosol-cloud interactions. We contrast variables important for ACI between GiOcean and satellite observations and develop 2-dimensional lookup tables of ACI for both using a source-sink budget perspective to attribute the changes in cloud droplet number (Nd) and liquid water path (LWP) to aerosol and meteorology. A compositing analysis using lookup tables shows that GiOcean captures key aspects of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, including (1) activation of aerosol into cloud droplets, (2) effective precipitation scavenging of Nd, (3) suppression of precipitation by high Nd in regions with heavy aerosol emissions. In contrast, satellite observations do not exhibit clear patterns for processes (2) and (3). Random Forest analysis shows that interannual variability in Nd and LWP over the Northern Hemisphere ocean in GiOcean is primarily driven by precipitation, consistent with satellite observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT)-America Mission

The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT)-America NASA Earth Venture Suborbital Mission set out to improve regional atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) inversions by exploring the intersection of the strong GHG fluxes and vigorous atmospheric transport that occurs within the midlatitudes. In this study, two research aircraft instrumented with remote and in situ sensors to measure GHG mole fractions, associated trace gases, and atmospheric state variables collected 1,140.7 flight hours of research data, distributed across 305 individual aircraft sorties, coordinated within 121 research flight days, and spanning five 6-week seasonal flight campaigns in the central and eastern United States. Flights sampled 31 synoptic sequences, including fair-weather and frontal conditions, at altitudes ranging from the atmospheric boundary layer to the upper free troposphere. The observations were complemented with global and regional GHG flux and transport model ensembles. We found that midlatitude weather systems contain large spatial gradients in GHG mole fractions, in patterns that were consistent as a function of season and altitude. We attribute these patterns to a combination of regional terrestrial fluxes and inflow from the continental boundaries. These observations, when segregated according to altitude and air mass, provide a variety of quantitative insights into the realism of regional CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes and atmospheric GHG transport realizations. The ACT-America dataset and ensemble modeling methods provide benchmarks for the development of atmospheric inversion systems. As global and regional atmospheric inversions incorporate ACT-America’s findings and methods, we anticipate these systems will produce increasingly accurate and precise subcontinental GHG flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy gain scale calibration of the XRISM Resolve microcalorimeter spectrometer: ground calibration results and on-orbit comparison

The Resolve instrument aboard the X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) is a 36-pixel microcalorimeter spectrometer that provides nondispersive spectroscopy with ∼ 5 eV spectral resolution in the soft X-ray waveband. Resolve has a requirement to provide an absolute energy-scale calibration of ± 2 eV from 0.3 to 12 keV. We describe our ground calibration strategy and results of a subset of the ground calibration campaigns, including a discussion of improvements in the energy scale ground calibration compared with Hitomi’s. These improvements include calibration of the low-energy band below 4 keV with the instrument in the flight dewar and the dewar aperture door open, which was not performed for Hitomi, and thorough measurements over an extended high-energy waveband to 22 keV. We also developed an improved technique for gain calibration of “mid-res” secondary events, which have suppressed gain due to proximity to a preceding X-ray event (18 to 70 ms) on the same pixel. We provide a discussion of the on-orbit energy scale monitoring campaigns and an assessment of the Resolve energy scale uncertainties, a key parameter for astrophysics analysis. Energy-scale calibration approaches for future space-based instruments, including the X-ray Integral Field Unit on Athena and microcalorimeter spectrometers proposed or under discussion for future X-ray observatory concepts, have heritage in the calibration of XRISM. We briefly comment on lessons learned from Resolve calibration that are relevant for these future instruments.

Aluminum↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beam test performance of AstroPix sensor with 120 GeV protons

AstroPix is a High-Voltage CMOS Monolithic Active Pixel Sensor (HV-CMOS MAPS) developed for precision gamma-ray imaging and spectroscopy in the medium-energy regime, as well as for precise shower imaging and tracking in the Barrel Imaging Calorimeter (BIC) of the Electron Proton/Ion Collider (ePIC) detector at the future Electron–Ion Collider (EIC). We present beam test results of the AstroPix_v3 sensor using a 120 GeV proton beam at the Fermilab Test Beam Facility (FTBF), performed as part of the broader experimental campaign for the BIC prototype calorimeter. The sensor’s 500 µm pixel pitch enabled precise measurement of the beam profile, providing important information for the calorimeter performance studies. Using the measured 120 GeV proton data, we measure the energy deposit of minimum ionizing particles (MIP) and use them to extract the corresponding effective depletion depth at a single bias voltage of −150 V .

AstroPix↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking quantum trial wavefunctions for phaseless auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo

The phaseless auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (ph-AFQMC) method is a stochastic imaginary-time projection technique for computing ground-state properties of strongly correlated quantum systems, with accuracy that depends critically on the choice of trial wavefunction. Here, we investigate ph-AFQMC with trial states prepared using parameterized quantum circuits. In this work, we present a comprehensive benchmarking study of quantum trial wavefunctions spanning unitary coupled-cluster, Hamiltonian-informed, Jastrow-inspired, and adaptively constructed ansatze. The benchmarking evaluates accuracy, expressibility, and scalability of these ansatze within the QC-AFQMC framework. We test these ansatze on linear hydrogen chains under bond stretching and find that several ansatz families produce chemically accurate ph-AFQMC energies across the dissociation curve. We have performed simulations using the CUDA-Q quantum development platform on the GPU partition of the Perlmutter supercomputer. When comparing ansatze at similar numbers of variational parameters, we find that different ansatz families yield comparable ph-AFQMC results despite exhibiting substantially different variational energies, optimization costs, and circuit depths. Our results indicate that the variational energy of an ansatz is not always a reliable indicator of its quality for ph-AFQMC and reveal instances of over-parameterization. In the strongly correlated regime, trial wavefunctions obtained from adaptive ansatze, exemplified here by ADAPT-VQE with the UCCSD operator pool, can outperform their fixed-ansatz counterparts (UCCSD) in terms of projected energies while using substantially more compact circuits, providing a flexible route to optimize quantum resources within the ph-AFQMC framework.

Rofougaran, Rod [LBNL, Berkeley; Columbia U.; PNL,↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

Li, Longlei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Common practices for quantifying methane emissions from plumes detected by remote sensing

This document provides a set of community-accepted practices for quantifying methane emissions based on plumes detected via spectroscopic remote sensing. Its primary goal is to promote consistency in the generation, validation, reporting, and quality assessment of methane emission estimates derived from remote sensing radiances. Developed by subject matter experts with deep experience across all stages of the measurement process, this guidance reflects a critical evaluation of current methodologies and highlights key practices needed to produce reliable, interoperable, and traceable products. The focus is specifically on methane emissions quantified from distinct plumes originating from localized sources, rather than diffuse emissions spread over large regions, which are beyond the scope of this work. This document is intended to serve both data producers and users. For producers, it offers a framework for aligning with field-recognized standards to ensure their outputs meet rigorous quality and transparency criteria. For users, it provides a reference to assess dataset fitness-for-purpose by highlighting essential metadata, assumptions, and methodological choices that underpin emission estimates. By fostering a shared understanding of best practices, this work aims to enhance comparability, confidence, and utility of remotely sensed methane emission products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗