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DOE OSTI2022

Lithological controls on soil geochemistry and clay mineralogy across Spodosols in the coastal temperate rainforest of southeast Alaska

The interaction of similar soil forming factors with different parent materials determines soil chemical weathering, influencing soil processes and properties. In the coastal temperate rainforests of southeast Alaska, Spodosols is the dominant soil order in well-drained parent materials regardless of the lithology. Yet, the role of lithology on chemical weathering, base cation depletion, and mineral transformation during pedogenesis remains elusive. Here, we established a lithosequence comprised of soils derived from tonalite, phyllite, slate, and metavolcanic rocks to test the hypothesis that despite the soils in southeast Alaska presenting similar taxonomy and morphology, the influence of lithology in chemical weathering intensity and mineralogy can be detected. We evaluated physicochemical properties, clay mineralogy, Fe-Al oxides, chemical weathering, and elemental mass balance on eleven Spodosols sampled along the lithosequence. We also propose a new weathering index, the Weathering Index for Spodosols (WISP), suitable to evaluate the weathering degree of soils with Al mobility and base-rich parent materials. This index fills a gap in traditional weathering indices that uses Al as an immobile element and/or does not evaluate the leaching of main base cations. We found the pedons across the lithosequence expressed similar physicochemical properties, with predominantly thick profiles, presenting andic properties, relatively thick spodic horizons, and thin E horizons. Podzolization imposed similar mineral transformation trends, mainly dissolution of chlorite, mica alteration to interstratified mica-vermiculite, and formation of smectite in E horizons. Kaolinite was detected in the soils from all lithologies, but only in trace amounts in phyllite soils. Fe oxides depth distribution was similar but with a higher concentration in the slate (44.5 ± 4.2 g/kg), followed by metavolcanic (31.6 ± 4.0 g/kg), phyllite (27.9 ± 3.8 g/kg), and tonalite soils (19.9 ± 5.7 g/kg) and predominantly as organometallic complexes (extracted by Na-pyrophosphate). The stronger weathering of chlorite and mica in the E horizons was reflected in larger losses of Mg and K, while Ca and Na were more depleted in the spodic horizons, suggesting plagioclase weathering. Slate soils were the most depleted in base cations, followed by phyllite, tonalite, and metavolcanic soils. The more depleted status of slate soils was supported by the higher WISP values (WISP = 62), followed by phyllite (WISP = 55), tonalite (WISP = 53), and metavolcanic soils (WISP = 45). Our results demonstrated that lithology controlled elemental depletion intensities, Fe oxide concentrations, and partially the clay fraction mineralogy in addition to podzolization acting as a dominant pedogenic process across all sites. These findings advance our understanding of the role of lithology on soil mineralogy/geochemistry that impacts critical soil functions, such as the soil carbon cycle, elemental fluxes, organo-mineral interactions, and solid-solution reactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neural operator transformers capture bifurcating drift-wave turbulence in fusion plasma simulations

Self-consistent modeling of turbulence-driven transport is critical for optimizing confinement in magnetically confined fusion plasmas, such as tokamaks and stellarators. In particular, capturing the long-term co-evolution of turbulence, flow, and background plasma profiles remains computationally challenging. Direct numerical simulation of these multiscale, highly nonlinear processes is often demanding and impractical for real-time control or design optimization. To address this bottleneck, we investigate transformer-based neural operator partial differential equation surrogates for emulating the dynamics of drift-wave turbulence bifurcation mediated by zonal flows, using the modified Hasegawa–Wakatani (MHW) model as a prototypical system. We find that the finetuned neural operator model has excellent performance in capturing the multi-spatiotemporal-scales of MHW turbulence bifurcation and is robust to testing on rare and out-of-distribution dynamics. Specifically, we demonstrate that a single unified model accurately predicts both quasi-steady-state turbulence and a wide range of dynamical transition processes, such as nonlinear saturation, spontaneous suppression of turbulence, and the emergence of macroscopic zonal flows, over time horizons vastly exceeding the local turbulence correlation time. This computationally efficient approach establishes a strong foundation for fast, AI-based modeling of complex, multiscale phenomena in magnetized fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bridging Scales in Black Hole Accretion and Feedback: Relativistic Jet Linking the Horizon to the Host Galaxy

Simulating black hole (BH) accretion and feedback from the BH horizon to galactic scales is extremely challenging, as it involves a vast range of scales. Recently, our multizone method has successfully achieved global dynamical steady states of hot accretion flows in 3D general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations by tracking the bidirectional interaction between a nonspinning BH and its host galaxy. In this paper, we present technical improvements to the method and apply it to spin a * = 0.9 BHs, which power relativistic jets. We first test the new multizone setup with a smaller Bondi radius, R B ≈ 400 r g , where r g is the gravitational radius. The strongly magnetized accretion launches a relativistic jet with an intermediate feedback efficiency η ∼ 30%, in between that of a prograde (η ∼ 100%) and retrograde (η ∼ 10%) torus. Interestingly, both prograde and retrograde simulations also eventually converge to the same intermediate efficiency when evolved long enough, as accumulated magnetic fields remove gas rotation. We then extend strongly magnetized simulations to larger Bondi radii, R B ≈ 2 × 10 3 , 2 × 10 4 , 2 × 10 5 r g . We find that the BH accretion rate $\dot{M}$ is suppressed with respect to the Bondi rate as $\dot{M}_{\textrm{B}}$ as $\dot{M}/\dot{M}_{\textrm{B}} ∝ R_{\textrm{B}}^{-1/2}$. However, despite some variability, the time-averaged feedback efficiency remains at η ∼ 30%, independent of R B . This suggests that BH feedback efficiency in hot accretion flows is mainly governed by the BH spin (a * ) rather than by the galactic properties (R B ). From these first-principles simulations, we provide a feedback subgrid prescription for cosmological simulations: $\dot{E}_{\textrm{fb}} = 2$ x $10^{-3}[R_{\textrm{B}}/(2$ x $10^5 r_g)]^{-1/2}$ $\dot{M}_{\textrm{B}}c^2$ for BH spin a * = 0.9.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Detecting Axion Dark Matter with Black Hole Polarimetry

The axion, as a leading dark matter candidate, is the target of many on-going and proposed experimental searches based on its coupling to photons. Ultralight axions that couple to photons can also cause polarization rotation of light which can be probed by cosmic microwave background. In this work, we show that a large axion field is inevitably developed around black holes due to the Bose-Einstein condensation of axions, enhancing the induced birefringence effects. Therefore, we propose measuring the modulation of supermassive black hole imaging polarization angles as a new probe to the axion-photon coupling of axion dark matter. The oscillating axion field around black holes induces polarization rotation on the black hole image, which is detectable and distinguishable from astrophysical effects on the polarization angle, as it exhibits distinctive temporal variability and frequency invariability. We present the range of axion-photon couplings within the axion mass range $10^{-21}-10^{-16}\text{eV}$ that can be probed by the Event Horizon Telescope. The axion parameter space probed by black hole polarimetry will expand with the improvement in sensitivity on the polarization measurement and more black hole polarimetry targets with determined black hole masses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The past, present, and future of nuclear fuel

Abstract New reactor concepts have motivated study of a variety of nuclear fuel types. Most nuclear fuels have their origins dating back to the very beginnings of nuclear materials. We survey the most prevalent types of nuclear fuels and their properties and give some historical context as to their development. We end with our perspective on what the next 50 years of nuclear fuel research might lead to. In our opinion, while optimized microstructures and chemistries are certainly on the horizon, the biggest developments will be the continued integration of modeling and simulation with experiments to extract the greatest amount of energy possible from existing fuel candidates in a safe and economical way. Graphical abstract

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the strength of selection for new SARS-CoV-2 variants

Abstract Controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic becomes increasingly challenging as the virus adapts to human hosts through the continual emergence of more transmissible variants. Simply observing that a variant is increasing in frequency is relatively straightforward, but more sophisticated methodology is needed to determine whether a new variant is a global threat and the magnitude of its selective advantage. We present two models for quantifying the strength of selection for new and emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 relative to the background of contemporaneous variants. These methods range from a detailed model of dynamics within one country to a broad analysis across all countries, and they include alternative explanations such as migration and drift. We find evidence for strong selection favoring the D614G spike mutation and B.1.1.7 (Alpha), weaker selection favoring B.1.351 (Beta), and no advantage of R.1 after it spreads beyond Japan. Cutting back data to earlier time horizons reveals that uncertainty is large very soon after emergence, but that estimates of selection stabilize after several weeks. Our results also show substantial heterogeneity among countries, demonstrating the need for a truly global perspective on the molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Phase transitions of correlations in black hole geometries

We study the holographic realization of optimized correlation measures—measures of quantum correlation that generalize elementary entropic formulas—in two-dimensional thermal states dual to spacetimes with a black hole horizon. We consider the symmetric bipartite optimized correlation measures: the entanglement of purification, Q-correlation, R-correlation, and squashed entanglement, as well as the mutual information, a nonoptimized correlation measure, and identify the bulk surface configurations realizing their geometric duals over the parameter space of boundary region sizes and the black hole radius. This parameter space is divided into phases associated with given topologies for these bulk surface configurations, and first-order phase transitions occur as a new topology of bulk surfaces becomes preferred. The distinct phases can be associated with different degrees of correlation between the boundary regions and the thermal environment. The Q-correlation has the richest behavior, with a structure of nested optimizations leading to two topologically distinct bulk surface configurations being equally valid as geometric duals at generic points in the phase diagram.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Hydropower Operational Flexibilities in Presence of Streamflow and Net-load Uncertainty (Final Technical report)

In the existing operations, hydropower contributions to future system flexibility are generally modeled while maintaining traditional operating rules and constraints in supporting grid operation, such as the balancing of variable renewable energy production. Moreover, operation of large scale hydropower systems on major rivers has been investigated for decades, utilizing various systems engineering approaches, with the evolving electric grid, as the result of renewable resources integration, compounded by the changing climate (variability of river flows, intensification of hydrologic cycle resulting in more frequent extreme events) affecting water availability, the need for more advanced stochastic modeling and effective uncertainty analysis approaches have become necessary. The research results supported by this funding and presented in this report provide a new look at hydropower operational flexibility enforced by the changes identified above. Understanding how hydropower operates in response to the underlying uncertainties with respect to the system constraints is crucial in identifying its operational flexibility potentials. In this project, the flexibility of the operating hydropower facility is described by capturing uncertainties in both water and power system and formulating the operations as a multistage stochastic optimization problem. The proposed approach supports short- to seasonal-term operations and planning decision horizons.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

New Laboratory and Astrophysical Probes of Physics Beyond the Standard Model (Final Technical Report)

The first of these directions centers on new ideas in dark matter detection. As experimental scrutiny narrows the window for new physics at the weak scale, it has become apparent that the solution to the dark matter mystery may not reside there. Theoretical developments such as the hidden sector/valley paradigm have, at the same time, shown that compelling theories of dark matter reside below the weak scale. Searching for dark matter at lower mass scales requires looking beyond the current paradigm of dark matter direct detection based on nuclear recoils. It is the goal of this project to provide new ideas to guide the experimental program looking for light dark matter. I am actively proposing ideas for detecting dark matter as light as a meV, well beyond the current focus of GeV-TeV scale dark matter. Some of the ideas I have proposed, such as superconducting, superfluid, and polar material targets, are actively being developed into experiments. My group will provide the relevant calculations to determine dark matter reach, providing crucial input to experiment on which targets should be developed. We will also provide an effective field theory framework to understand which types of experiments are most sensitive to each interaction type. The second of these directions is on probes of dark matter substructure as a mean to constrain, or observe, models of dark matter. The standard ΛCDM paradigm assumes that the dark matter density perturbations are adiabatic, scale invariant, and produced during inflation. However, many standard models of dark matter will produce modifications of this prediction, such as axion models with symmetry broken below the inflationary scale. Remarkably, we have limited direct measurements of the dark matter clumpiness at mass scales below dwarf galaxies. This allows for the possibility of observing modifications from vanilla ΛCDM due to particle dynamics. In many cases, simulations of dark matter structure in the presence of non-scale invariant fluctu- ations are understudied or completely lacking. I plan to develop both theoretical predictions for small scale structure in models with additional matter power on small scales, as well as observa- tional probes of small scale halos or clumps. One idea I have been recently focused on is pulsar timing, though my group will pursue a variety of lensing and astrometric probes. Lastly, the most risky direction involves spacetime fluctuations from quantum gravity. I showed that if one assumes that metric fluctuations in the Minkowski vacuum, at a surface separating a region in and out of causal contact (which we call a “horizon”), are determined by standard thermodynamic considerations at horizon, these metric fluctuations are large enough to observe in an interferometer with similar sensitivity to LIGO. In a follow-up paper we showed that these assumption holds for the vacuum in AdS/CFT. In future work, I plan to connect this work to recent soft graviton results, to frame this work in a concrete Randall-Sundrum model, and to work out concrete phenomenological predictions from the model. This work unquestionably takes a less trodden path, and works well as part of a well-rounded portfolio of less and more risky ideas. Particle physics is currently at a juncture which requires bold exploration of qualitatively new directions. This proposal outlines some of my plans over the coming years in these directions, leaving room also for surprises.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A scalable planning framework of energy storage systems under frequency dynamics constraints

As the penetration of renewables increases in power systems, the declining system inertia can cause frequency stability issues. Battery energy storage systems (BESSs) respond fast and therefore can relieve the low inertia difficulty but need to be appropriately sized considering the associated cost. This paper presents a novel stochastic optimization model for economically planning BESS capacity while considering the spatial–temporal correlation of wind generation and generator outages under frequency stability constraints, which include the rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF), frequency nadir (FN), and quasi-steady-state (QSS) frequency. A set of new FN constraints that can be easily linearized is developed. To account for renewable uncertainties, a realistic uncertainty modeling approach, Random Field, is adopted to generate wind generation scenarios by considering both spatial and temporal evolutions of wind speed profiles. The ESS sizing is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming problem and solved by using a scalable decomposition-and-coordination approach, Surrogate Absolute Value Lagrangian Relaxation (SAVLR). To further improve the scalability and reduce computational burdens, a rolling-horizon-based update is developed and incorporated into SAVLR for providing a practical solution to the long-term planning of very large-scale power systems. Finally, a modified IEEE 118-bus system and the Polish system are used to validate the effectiveness and scalability of the model and solution methodology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Polyhedral Relaxations for Optimal Pump Scheduling of Potable Water Distribution Networks

The classic pump scheduling or optimal water flow (OWF) problem for water distribution networks (WDNs) minimizes the cost of power consumption for a given WDN over a fixed time horizon. In its exact form, the OWF is a computationally challenging mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP). It is complicated by nonlinear equality constraints that model network physics, discrete variables that model operational controls, and intertemporal constraints that model changes to storage devices. To address the computational challenges of the OWF, this paper develops tight polyhedral relaxations of the original MINLP, derives novel valid inequalities (or cuts) using duality theory, and implements novel optimization-based bound tightening and cut generation procedures. The efficacy of each new method is rigorously evaluated by measuring empirical improvements in OWF primal and dual bounds over 45 literature instances. The evaluation suggests that our relaxation improvements, model strengthening techniques, and a thoughtfully selected polyhedral relaxation partitioning scheme can substantially improve OWF primal and dual bounds, especially when compared with similar relaxation-based techniques that do not leverage these new methods.

bound tightening↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electric Vehicle and Infrastructure Systems Modeling in Washington D.C. and Baltimore

This report documents the Argonne-Exelon effort to develop and utilize an agent-based model (ATEAM) of charging demand and infrastructure expansion applicable to the Washington, DC–Baltimore, MD consolidated metropolitan area. This study extends the ATEAM model time horizon to 10 years (from 2020 to 2030), expands agent behavior modeling capabilities, incorporates more granular and extensive empirical data on charging behavior, and analyzes charging needs for a much larger population of PEVs, in keeping with regional goals for significant adoption of ZEVs. With given targets for annual BEV adoption, five scenarios were developed to examine public infrastructure needs and resulting charging load, considering different home charging availabilities, as well as different PEV consumer profiles and public charging infrastructure deployment strategies. Scenario results show that if new chargers (both L2 and DCFC) are spread more widely (as with ubiquitous deployment strategies), there will be less variation in the number of chargers added to each census tract in the study area. More importantly, widespread public charging infrastructure with ubiquitous deployment strategies reduces unmet charging demand and improves charging success, even with heavy reliance on public charging. About 80 percent of BEV drivers can charge on their first attempt in scenarios with ubiquitous deployment strategies. Moreover, widespread public charging infrastructure better meets the demand for more charging, and in return, increases BEV adoption. Low home charging availability produces higher charging loads in public locations, especially during the early morning (around 8:00 a.m.) and late afternoon (around 6:00 p.m.). The evening peak load indicates that drivers are taking advantage of public charging before heading home. Study results also indicate that even with 20 percent home charging availability in 2030, just 20 percent of drivers attempt to charge on a given day. With their relatively high electric range (200+ miles), the BEVs expected to be on the road in 2030 can handle daily commutes without re-charging for a couple of days.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Hydrology and Interim Measure Performance in the Chromium Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20498

Hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), is present in the regional aquifer beneath Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) at concentrations greater than the New Mexico groundwater standard (50 ppb). The source of the Cr is blowdown from a power plant where potassium dichromate was used as a corrosion inhibitor from 1956 to 1972. Blowdown comingled with effluent from another source and migrated approximately 3 miles down a canyon, primarily as surface flow, until reaching an alluvial infiltration zone. The infiltrating water moved vertically through a thick (approximately 900 ft), complex stratigraphic sequence of unsaturated tuffs, basalt, and unconsolidated alluvial deposits. Horizontal transport also took place within spatially limited perched groundwater horizons in the vadose zone (VZ). Breakthrough at the regional aquifer water table is thought to have occurred in multiple hydraulic windows or 'drip points' located approximately 3 miles from the initial release site at the power plant. The regional aquifer is highly heterogeneous and anisotropic, and displays unconfined behavior in an upper zone and confined behavior at depth. The Cr(VI) contamination has so far remained confined to the upper approximately 25 m of the aquifer. The ambient hydraulic gradient in the regional aquifer is toward the east/southeast, but the water table is extremely flat in the Cr plume area compared to surrounding areas. There is some local variability in flow direction, potentially related to effects of seasonal pumping from nearby Los Alamos county water-supply wells, which draw from the regional aquifer several hundred feet below the water table. An interim measure (IM) is currently operating at the site to achieve hydraulic control of plume migration using a series of extraction wells, ion-exchange treatment, and injection along the downgradient portion of the plume. The migration of Cr contamination in the aquifer has been previously evaluated using a calibrated probabilistic numerical model, which has also been used to design the spatial configuration of extraction and injection wells for the IM, and to identify locations for monitoring wells. The model is built using the Finite Element Heat and Mass (FEHM) transfer code, and the Model Analysis and Decision Support (MADS) software is used for analyses. To date, the portion of the IM system that has operated in a continuous manner has been very effective at hydraulic control. Modifications to the flow field associated with the influence of IM pumping and injection are evaluated here, with modeling constraints to be provided by recent observations of tracers injected into both monitoring wells and IM injection wells, as well as opportunistic observations of geochemical signatures of treated ion-exchange effluent injected into IM injection wells. The tracer and geochemical data provide insights into modified flow directions within the Cr plume area that cannot be otherwise obtained. Results of the modeling work are being used to inform adaptive management of IM operations and will be a valuable tool for development and refinement of long-term remediation strategies. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spins of primordial black holes formed in different cosmological scenarios

Primordial black holes (PBHs) could account for all or part of dark matter, as well as for some LIGO events. We discuss the spins of primordial black holes produced in different cosmological scenarios, with the emphasis on recently discovered possibilities. PBHs produced as a horizon-size collapse of density perturbations are known to have very small spins. In contrast, PBHs resulting from assembly of matterlike objects (particles, Q-balls, oscillons, etc.) can have large or small spins depending on their formation history and the efficiency of radiative cooling. Here, we show that scalar radiation can remove the angular momentum very efficiently, leading to slowly rotating PBHs in those scenarios for which the radiative cooling is important. Gravitational waves astronomy offers an opportunity to determine the spins of black holes, opening a new window on the early Universe if, indeed, some black holes have primordial origin.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A new spin on the Weak Gravity Conjecture

The mild form of the Weak Gravity Conjecture states that quantum or higher-derivative corrections should decrease the mass of large extremal charged black holes at fixed charge. This allows extremal black holes to decay, unless protected by a symmetry (such as supersymmetry). We reformulate this conjecture as an integrated condition on the effective stress tensor capturing the effect of quantum or higher-derivative corrections. In addition to charged black holes, we also consider rotating BTZ black holes and show that this condition is satisfied as a consequence of the $\textit{c}$-theorem, proving a spinning version of the Weak Gravity Conjecture. We also apply our results to a five-dimensional boosted black string with higher-derivative corrections. The boosted black string has a BTZ×$S^2$ near-horizon geometry and, after Kaluza-Klein reduction, describes a four-dimensional charged black hole. Combining the spinning and charged Weak Gravity Conjecture we obtain positivity bounds on the five-dimensional Wilson coefficients that are stronger than those obtained from charged black holes alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021–22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022–23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021–22 and the 5th most accurate in the 2022–23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geometric secret sharing in a model of Hawking radiation

We consider a black hole in three dimensional AdS space entangled with an auxiliary radiation system. We model the microstates of the black hole in terms of a field theory living on an end of the world brane behind the horizon, and allow this field theory to itself have a holographic dual geometry. This geometry is also a black hole since entanglement of the microstates with the radiation leaves them in a mixed state. This “inception black hole” can be purified by entanglement through a wormhole with an auxiliary system which is naturally identified with the external radiation, giving a realization of the ER=EPR scenario. In this context, we propose an extension of the Ryu-Takayanagi (RT) formula, in which extremal surfaces computing entanglement entropy are allowed to pass through the brane into its dual geometry. This new rule reproduces the Page curve for evaporating black holes, consistently with the recently proposed “island formula”. We then separate the radiation system into pieces. Our extended RT rule shows that the entanglement wedge of the union of radiation subsystems covers the black hole interior at late times, but the union of entanglement wedges of the subsystems may not. This result points to a secret sharing scheme in Hawking radiation wherein reconstruction of certain regions in the interior is impossible with any subsystem of the radiation, but possible with all of it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗