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DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Ensemble Predictions of South Asian Monsoon Low Pressure System Genesis

Abstract Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. However, the accuracy of LPS genesis forecasts by numerical weather prediction models has remained unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of two global ensemble models—the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—in predicting LPS genesis during the years 2021–22. The GEFS successfully predicted about half the observed LPS genesis events 1–2 days in advance; the ECMWF model captured an additional 10% of observed genesis events. Both models had a false alarm ratio (FAR) of around 50% for 1–2-day lead times. In both ensembles, the control run typically exhibited a higher probability of detection (POD) of observed events and a lower FAR compared to the perturbed ensemble members. However, a consensus forecast, in which genesis is predicted when at least 20% of ensemble members forecast LPS formation, had POD values surpassing those of the control run for all lead times. Moreover, probabilistic predictions of genesis over the Bay of Bengal, where most LPSs form, were skillful, with the fraction of ensemble members predicting LPS formation over a 5-day lead time approximating the observed frequency of genesis, without any adjustment or bias correction.

Suhas, D. L.↗

DOE OSTI2018

A New Approach for Short-Term Solar Radiation Forecasting Using the Estimation of Cloud Fraction and Cloud Albedo

Solar generation is an increasing part of the energy portfolio in the United States. An accurate forecast of the available solar resource and power is essential to managing the electric grid, market operations, and reducing the cost of solar energy. High-frequency forecasts of solar radiation in intra-hour horizons is important for real-time electric power system energy management, especially at the distribution level. Conventional Numerical Weather Prediction models perform poorly in intra-hour, high-frequency forecasts because of the limits on real-time computing, spatial resolution, and infrequent availability of observations. Although a number of alternative technologies, e.g., time-series analysis and machine learning, have been used to fill this gap, the smart persistence model is among the top-performing models in short-term forecasting and therefore often serves as the baseline to evaluate other forecasting models. Although the smart persistence model often serves as the baseline model in these intra-hour forecasts, obvious uncertainties exist in the current smart persistence model: (1) clear-sky index does not respond to the variation of the solar incident angle when cloud conditions are persistent within the forecast horizon, and (2) cloud coverage is inherently persistent though it is constrained by cloud advection. In this study, we developed a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting (PSPI) that integrates cloudy property estimation, a radiative transfer model, and cloud fraction forecasts to improve the performance of the smart persistence model. Compared to the smart persistence model, PSPI does not require additional observations of various atmospheric parameters past global horizontal irradiance, but it is customizable because additional observations, if available, can be ingested to further improve the forecast. Our results show that the PSPI outperforms the persistence and smart persistence model on 5-minute, 15-minute, and 30-minute forecast horizons. The software package of PSPI is flexible to users' needs and provides low computational time to run at site-specific locations across the continental United States.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Lidar Buoy Data Analysis: Basic Assessment of Observed Conditions and Instrument Performance Off Virginia and New Jersey

One of the challenges for developing offshore wind energy in the United States has been a lack of long-term observations to characterize the wind resource and design load conditions and to provide validation for the numerical weather prediction models. To address this challenge, the U.S. Department of Energy supported the procurement in 2014 and subsequent deployment of two buoys equipped with motion-compensated lidars and a comprehensive set of supporting meteorological and oceanographic (“metocean”) measurement systems. Each of the systems was deployed off the U.S. East Coast in excess of one year—one each near the coasts of Virginia and New Jersey. One notable observation from both buoys is the dramatic dependence of the wind shear on atmospheric stability as indicated by the air-sea temperature difference. This observation suggests that the commonly used neutral log law will not be a fully suitable representation of wind shear off the U.S. East Coast. This report provides a basic summary of observations at each location from key systems on each of the buoys as well as an assessment of instrument performance. These data are beginning to fill a long-standing observational gap for the wind energy community in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer Optimal Estimation (AERIoe) Value-Added Product Report

The Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) Optimal Estimation (AERIoe) algorithm (Turner and Löhnert 2014, Turner and Blumberg 2019) retrieves boundary-layer profiles of temperature and water vapor mixing ratio, together with cloud properties for a single-layer cloud (i.e., LWP, effective radius), from AERI-observed infrared radiance spectra and other measurements. The current AERIoe Value-Added Product (VAP) uses version 2.8 of David Turner's code, which uses additional inputs to constrain the retrieval including surface meteorology, microwave radiometer brightness temperatures at any number of frequencies (the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement [ARM] user facility typically used observations at 23.8 and 30.0 GHz), and Rapid Refresh numerical weather prediction model output. The method is a physical iterative retrieval that uses the optimal estimation framework (Rodgers 2000), so a full error covariance of the solution and the information content (in the form of degrees of freedom for signal) is provided for each retrieval.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

NOW-23: The 2023 National Offshore Wind Data Set

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regime Characterization of Offshore Wind Resource Using Unsupervised Learning

Predictability of wind resource conditions is critical for offshore wind design and operations. While many studies of extreme wind conditions focus on specific events such as low-level jets or ramps, these rely on threshold definitions that limit generality. Here we present a data-driven framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), self-organizing maps (SOM), and k-means clustering to classify wind resource conditions as typical and anomalous from climatological data. Anomalies are defined not by fixed thresholds but by flagging samples located far from SOM node centers inside the baseline SOM structure. This reframes extremes as rare ebents and hence, likely difficult to anticipate by numerical weather prediction models. We applied this approach to 23 years (2000–2022) of hourly profiles from the NOW-23 hindcast model at the Humboldt Wind Energy Area. Classification is conducted on a feature space consisting of 10 m wind speed and direction, bulk shear and veer across 30–270 m, and a low-level jet index. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through PC. A 2 × 3 OM lattice trained on the PCA vectors identified six baseline regimes spanning weak to strong flow states. High quantization-error profiles are identified and re-clustered into four anomalous regimes. The baseline regimes exhibited clear seasonal and diurnal cycles. Meanwhile, the anomalous regimes represented <10 % of all hours but showed distinct combinations of speed, shear, and veer, when compared to the baseline regimes. Anomalous regimes are typically short-lived (~few hours), yet their transitions can lead to hub-height wind changes of −18 to +9 m s -1 . For a representative 15 MW turbine, these shifts imply rapid swings in capacity factor from near-full output to negligible generation. Validation with lidar buoy data showed 51% agreement in SOM labels across ~6,000 overlapping hours, with most mismatches confined to adjacent speed classes. HRRR comparisons further revealed that anomalous regimes were disproportionately associated with forecast biases exceeding 5 m s -1 . Together, these results reframe extremes in offshore wind from absolute maxima or minima to weather states that are difficult to anticipate from models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

NOW-23: the 2023 National Offshore Wind Data Set

In this report, we present the latest wind resource data specifically tailored for offshore regions in the United States. The data set, known as the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), has been developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners, and surpasses the previous resource data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was released approximately ten years ago, in its offshore component. The WIND Toolkit has been widely utilized by stakeholders involved in wind resource assessments across the continental United States. However, with significant advancements in numerical weather prediction modeling over the past decade, the NOW-23 data set incorporates the latest research and development progress to provide stakeholders with an updated and cutting-edge resource for offshore wind analysis. The NOW-23 data set is created using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its output is available, as for its predecessor, at 5-minute time resolution and 2-kilometer horizontal spatial resolution. However, the NOW-23 data set improves upon the WIND Toolkit through: 1. A modeling period of at least 20 years (and as long as 23 years in selected regions), starting in 2000 (compared to the 7-year 2007–2013 modeling period in the WIND Toolkit). 2. For several offshore regions, a region-specific sensitivity analysis, driven by an ensemble of WRF simulations, to assess the most adequate region-specific WRF setup. 3. An updated WRF model, from Version 3.4 used in the WIND Toolkit to Version 4.2.1 used for the NOW-23 data set, which incorporates significant research advancements. 4. The use of the state-of-the-art reanalysis product ERA5 (which supersedes the older ERA-Interim used in the WIND Toolkit) to provide atmospheric forcing at the WRF domain boundaries. Figure 1 shows the NOW-23 mean wind speed at 160 m above sea level (asl), which we use as proxy for hub-height of a commercial offshore wind turbine in this report across all regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

5-minute Wind Power Data based on WFIP2 WRF Simulation

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) was a public-private partnership funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and NOAA, aimed at enhancing the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction models for turbine-height winds in regions with complex terrain. An 18-month Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation was conducted over the Pacific Northwest, with model outputs validated against observational data collected during WFIP2. Simulated wind speeds were used to estimate wind power generation using reV (the Renewable Energy Potential Model developed by NREL) at ten wind project sites. Two sets of results were produced: one using wind speeds extracted from the model grid cell at the project centroid, and another using wind speeds from the actual turbine locations. For each dataset, power output was calculated using both actual turbine-specific power curves and nine generic power curves to convert wind speed into power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

RHOD Site - NOAA PSL Wind Retrievals WINDoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily NetCDF files with horizontal wind profiles retrieved with the WINDoe retrieval (Gebauer and Bell 2024) at Rhode Island (RHOD). WINDoe retrievals datasets are also available at Nantucket Island (NANT, nant.windoe.z01.c1) and Block Island (BLOC, bloc.windoe.z01.c1). WINDoe is an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve wind profiles combining multiple instruments. The code is available in this github repository (https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/WINDoe/tree/main) and the retrieval is described by Gebauer and Bell (2024). WINDoe allows combining the individual datasets and outputs into one profile taking into account the information and uncertainties of each dataset. The use of WINDoe minimizes data gaps and maximizes data availability, compared to using wind profiles from only one of the instruments. The regular height grid eases comparisons to numerical weather prediction models. Code modifications have been made that include reading in WFIP3 specific instruments, averaging Doppler lidar radial velocities at various azimuth angles to avoid overfitting, and allowing the user to define a height grid by the user in the vipfile. The instruments used as input to the retrieval are a radar wind profiler (low- and high resolution mode) providing data in and above the boundary layer, a scanning Doppler lidar usually providing data throughout the boundary layer, a profiling lidar providing data from 50 to 200 m at BLOC and NANT, and from 10 to 280 m at Rhode Island, and a surface tower (4 m at NANT and RHOD and 10 m at BLOC). From the scanning lidars, we used radial velocity measurements at 60 deg elevation angle at six different azimuth angles with a resolution of approximately 30 m along the line of sight and the lowest range gate at approximately 70 m. The wind profiles are retrieved with WINDoe up to 3.74 km with 10 m vertical resolution. The profiles are retrieved every 15 min at BLOC and NANT and every 60 min at RHOD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

BLOC Site - NOAA PSL Wind Retrievals WINDoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily netcdf files with horizontal wind profiles retrieved with the WINDoe retrieval (Gebauer and Bell 2024) at Block Island (BLOC). WINDoe retrievals datasets are also available at Nantucket Island (NANT, nant.windoe.z01.c1) and Rhode Island (RHOD, rhod.windoe.z01.c1). WINDoe is an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve wind profiles combining multiple instruments. The code is available in this github repository (https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/WINDoe/tree/main), and the retrieval is described by Gebauer and Bell (2024). WINDoe allows combining the individual datasets and outputs into one profile taking into account the information and uncertainties of each dataset. The use of WINDoe minimizes data gaps and maximizes data availability, compared to using wind profiles from only one of the instruments. The regular height grid eases comparisons to numerical weather prediction models. Code modifications have been made that include reading in WFIP3 specific instruments, averaging Doppler lidar radial velocities at various azimuth angles to avoid overfitting, and allowing the user to define a height grid by the user in the vipfile. The instruments used as input to the retrieval are a radar wind profiler (low- and high resolution mode) providing data in and above the boundary layer, a scanning Doppler lidar usually providing data throughout the boundary layer, a profiling lidar providing data from 50 to 200 m at BLOC and NANT, and from 10 to 280 m at Rhode Island, and a surface tower (4 m at NANT and RHOD and 10 m at BLOC). From the scanning lidars, we used radial velocity measurements at 60 deg elevation angle at six different azimuth angles with a resolution of approximately 30 m along the line of sight and the lowest range gate at approximately 70 m. The wind profiles are retrieved with WINDoe up to 3.74 km with 10 m vertical resolution. The profiles are retrieved every 15 min at BLOC and NANT and every 60 min at RHOD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

NANT Site - NOAA PSL Wind Retrievals WINDoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily NetCDF files with horizontal wind profiles retrieved with the WINDoe retrieval (Gebauer and Bell 2024) at Nantucket Island (NANT). WINDoe retrievals datasets are also available at Block Island (BLOC, bloc.windoe.z01.c1) and Rhode Island (RHOD, rhod.windoe.z01.c1). WINDoe is an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve wind profiles combining multiple instruments. The code is available in this github repository (https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/WINDoe/tree/main), and the retrieval is described by Gebauer and Bell (2024). WINDoe allows combining the individual datasets and outputs into one profile taking into account the information and uncertainties of each dataset. The use of WINDoe minimizes data gaps and maximizes data availability, compared to using wind profiles from only one of the instruments. The regular height grid eases comparisons to numerical weather prediction models. Code modifications have been made that include reading in WFIP3 specific instruments, averaging Doppler lidar radial velocities at various azimuth angles to avoid overfitting, and allowing the user to define a height grid by the user in the vipfile. The instruments used as input to the retrieval are a radar wind profiler (low- and high resolution mode) providing data in and above the boundary layer, a scanning Doppler lidar usually providing data throughout the boundary layer, a profiling lidar providing data from 50 to 200 m at BLOC and NANT, and from 10 to 280 m at Rhode Island, and a surface tower (4 m at NANT and RHOD and 10 m at BLOC). From the scanning lidars, we used radial velocity measurements at 60 deg elevation angle at six different azimuth angles with a resolution of approximately 30 m along the line of sight and the lowest range gate at approximately 70 m. The wind profiles are retrieved with WINDoe up to 3.74 km with 10 m vertical resolution. The profiles are retrieved every 15 min at BLOC and NANT and every 60 min at RHOD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Spatial and temporal variability of turbulence dissipation rate in complex terrain

To improve parameterizations of the turbulence dissipation rate (ϵ) in numerical weather prediction models, the temporal and spatial variability of ϵ must be assessed. In this study, we explore influences on the variability of ϵ at various scales in the Columbia River Gorge during the WFIP2 field experiment between 2015 and 2017. We calculate ϵ from five sonic anemometers all deployed in a ~4 km 2 area as well as from two scanning Doppler lidars and four profiling Doppler lidars, whose locations span a ~300 km wide region. We retrieve ϵ from the sonic anemometers using the second-order structure function method, from the scanning lidars with the azimuth structure function approach, and from the profiling lidars with a novel technique using the variance of the line-of-sight velocity. The turbulence dissipation rate shows large spatial variability, even at the microscale, especially during nighttime stable conditions. Orographic features have a strong impact on the variability of ϵ, with the correlation between ϵ at different stations being highly influenced by terrain. ϵ shows larger values in sites located downwind of complex orographic structures or in wind farm wakes. A clear diurnal cycle in ϵ is found, with daytime convective conditions determining values over an order of magnitude higher than nighttime stable conditions. ϵ also shows a distinct seasonal cycle, with differences greater than an order of magnitude between average ϵ values in summer and winter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Assessing the accuracy of microwave radiometers and radio acoustic sounding systems for wind energy applications

To assess current remote-sensing capabilities for wind energy applications, a remote-sensing system evaluation study, called XPIA (eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrument Assessment), was held in the spring of 2015 at NOAA's Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) facility. Several remote-sensing platforms were evaluated to determine their suitability for the verification and validation processes used to test the accuracy of numerical weather prediction models. The evaluation of these platforms was performed with respect to well-defined reference systems: the BAO's 300 m tower equipped at six levels (50, 100, 150, 200, 250, and 300 m) with 12 sonic anemometers and six temperature ( T ) and relative humidity (RH) sensors; and approximately 60 radiosonde launches. In this study we first employ these reference measurements to validate temperature profiles retrieved by two co-located microwave radiometers (MWRs) as well as virtual temperature ( T v ) measured by co-located wind profiling radars equipped with radio acoustic sounding systems (RASSs). Results indicate a mean absolute error (MAE) in the temperature retrieved by the microwave radiometers below 1.5 K in the lowest 5?km of the atmosphere and a mean absolute error in the virtual temperature measured by the radio acoustic sounding systems below 0.8 K in the layer of the atmosphere covered by these measurements (up to approximately 1.6-2 km). We also investigated the benefit of the vertical velocity correction applied to the speed of sound before computing the virtual temperature by the radio acoustic sounding systems. We find that using this correction frequently increases the RASS error, and that it should not be routinely applied to all data. Water vapor density (WVD) profiles measured by the MWRs were also compared with similar measurements from the soundings, showing the capability of MWRs to follow the vertical profile measured by the sounding and finding a mean absolute error below 0.5 g m -3 in the lowest 5 km of the atmosphere. However, the relative humidity profiles measured by the microwave radiometer lack the high-resolution details available from radiosonde profiles. Furthermore, an encouraging and significant finding of this study was that the coefficient of determination between the lapse rate measured by the microwave radiometer and the tower measurements over the tower levels between 50 and 300 m ranged from 0.76 to 0.91, proving that these remote-sensing instruments can provide accurate information on atmospheric stability conditions in the lower boundary layer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Improved observations of turbulence dissipation rates from wind profiling radars

Observations of turbulence dissipation rates in the planetary boundary layer are crucial for validation of parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models. However, because dissipation rates are difficult to obtain, they are infrequently measured through the depth of the boundary layer. For this reason, demonstrating the ability of commonly used wind profiling radars (WPRs) to estimate this quantity would be greatly beneficial. During the XPIA field campaign at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory, two WPRs operated in an optimized configuration, using high spectral resolution for increased accuracy of Doppler spectral width, specifically chosen to estimate turbulence from a vertically pointing beam. Multiple post-processing techniques, including different numbers of spectral averages and peak processing algorithms for calculating spectral moments, were evaluated to determine the most accurate procedures for estimating turbulence dissipation rates using the information contained in the Doppler spectral width, using sonic anemometers mounted on a 300 m tower for validation. Furthermore, the optimal settings were determined, producing a low bias, which was later corrected. Resulting estimations of turbulence dissipation rates correlated well ( R 2 = 0.54 and 0.41) with the sonic anemometers, and profiles up to 2 km from the 449 MHz WPR and 1 km from the 915 MHz WPR were observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using optimal estimation to retrieve winds from velocity-azimuth display (VAD) scans by a Doppler lidar

Abstract. Low-powered commercially available coherent Doppler lidar (CDL) wind profilers provide continuous measurement of vertical profiles of wind in the lower troposphere, usually close to or up to the top of the planetary boundary layer. The vertical extent of these wind profiles is limited by the availability of scatterers and thus varies substantially throughout the day and from one day to the next. This makes it challenging to develop continuous products that rely on CDL-observed wind profiles. In order to overcome this problem, we have developed a new method for wind profile retrievals from CDL that combines the traditional velocity-azimuth display (VAD) technique with optimal estimation (OE) to provide continuous wind profiles up to 3 km. The new method exploits the level-to-level covariance present in the wind profile to fill in the gaps where the signal-to-noise ratio of the CDL return is too low to provide reliable results using the traditional VAD method. Another advantage of the new method is that it provides the full error covariance matrix of the solution and profiles of information content, which more easily facilitates the assimilation of the observed wind profiles into numerical weather prediction models. This method was tested using yearlong CDL measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility in 2019. Comparison with the ARM operational CDL wind profile product and collocated radiosonde wind measurements shows excellent agreement (R2>0.99) with no degradation in results where the traditional VAD provided a valid solution. In the region where traditional VAD does not provide results, the OE wind speed and wind vector have uncertainties of 3.44 and 4.33 m s−1, respectively. As a result, the new method provides additional information over the standard technique and increases the effective range of existing CDL systems without the need for additional hardware.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Generating wind power scenarios for probabilistic ramp event prediction using multivariate statistical post-processing

Wind power forecasting is gaining international significance as more regions promote policies to increase the use of renewable energy. Wind ramps, large variations in wind power production during a period of minutes to hours, challenge utilities and electrical balancing authorities. A sudden decrease in wind-energy production must be balanced by other power generators to meet energy demands, while a sharp increase in unexpected production results in excess power that may not be used in the power grid, leading to a loss of potential profits. In this study, we compare different methods to generate probabilistic ramp forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model with up to 12h of lead time at two tall-tower locations in the United States. We validate model performance using 21 months of 80m wind speed observations from towers in Boulder, Colorado, and near the Columbia River gorge in eastern Oregon. We employ four statistical post-processing methods, three of which are not currently used in the literature for wind forecasting. These procedures correct biases in the model and generate short-term wind speed scenarios which are then converted to power scenarios. This probabilistic enhancement of HRRR point forecasts provides valuable uncertainty information of ramp events and improves the skill of predicting ramp events over the raw forecasts. We compute Brier skill scores for each method with regard to predicting up- and down-ramps to determine which method provides the best prediction. We find that the Standard Schaake shuffle method yields the highest skill at predicting ramp events for these datasets, especially for up-ramp events at the Oregon site. Increased skill for ramp prediction is limited at the Boulder, CO, site using any of the multivariate methods because of the poor initial forecasts in this area of complex terrain. These statistical methods can be implemented by wind farm operators to generate a range of possible wind speed and power scenarios to aid and optimize decisions before ramp events occur.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scientific challenges to characterizing the wind resource in the marine atmospheric boundary layer

Abstract. With the increasing level of offshore wind energy investment, it is correspondingly important to be able to accurately characterize the wind resource in terms of energy potential as well as operating conditions affecting wind plant performance, maintenance, and lifespan. Accurate resource assessment at a particular site supports investment decisions. Following construction, accurate wind forecasts are needed to support efficient power markets and integration of wind power with the electrical grid. To optimize the design of wind turbines, it is necessary to accurately describe the environmental characteristics, such as precipitation and waves, that erode turbine surfaces and generate structural loads as a complicated response to the combined impact of shear, atmospheric turbulence, and wave stresses. Despite recent considerable progress both in improvements to numerical weather prediction models and in coupling these models to turbulent flows within wind plants, major challenges remain, especially in the offshore environment. Accurately simulating the interactions among winds, waves, wakes, and their structural interactions with offshore wind turbines requires accounting for spatial (and associated temporal) scales from O(1 m) to O(100 km). Computing capabilities for the foreseeable future will not be able to resolve all of these scales simultaneously, necessitating continuing improvement in subgrid-scale parameterizations within highly nonlinear models. In addition, observations to constrain and validate these models, especially in the rotor-swept area of turbines over the ocean, remains largely absent. Thus, gaining sufficient understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow within and around wind plants remains one of the grand challenges of wind energy, particularly in the offshore environment. This paper provides a review of prominent scientific challenges to characterizing the offshore wind resource using as examples phenomena that occur in the rapidly developing wind energy areas off the United States. Such phenomena include horizontal temperature gradients that lead to strong vertical stratification; consequent features such as low-level jets and internal boundary layers; highly nonstationary conditions, which occur with both extratropical storms (e.g., nor'easters) and tropical storms; air–sea interaction, including deformation of conventional wind profiles by the wave boundary layer; and precipitation with its contributions to leading-edge erosion of wind turbine blades. The paper also describes the current state of modeling and observations in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and provides specific recommendations for filling key current knowledge gaps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗