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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Correlating Surface Processing of Nb Superconducting RF Cavities with the Evolution of Surface Electronic States

Superconducting-radio frequency (RF) cavities provide an efficient way to accelerate particle beams with extremely high acceleration gradients while generating very small power dissipation. The few nanometers of the surface play a critical role in defining the RF performance of superconducting Nb based cavities. Over the past two decades, several pioneering surface treatment and processing methods have emerged, enabling remarkable improvements in superconducting cavity performance by simultaneously achieving high quality factors with increasing maximum acceleration gradients. These processing approaches include chemical polishing, distinct multi-step thermal treatments under ultra-high vacuum (UHV) conditions over low to high temperature regimes, as well as high-temperature treatments under controlled nitrogen atmospheres. Beyond their macroscopic impact on RF performance, these methods produce distinct surface oxide configurations characterized by different valence states, oxide thicknesses, chemical uniformity, and oxygen concentration profiles extending into the near-surface bulk of niobium. In this work, we are trying to understand how the surface-processing methods and the resulting oxide/oxygen profiles affect the electronic structure of surface and the mechanism of superconductivity. Using a combination of X-ray photoemission and X-ray absorption spectroscopies, we investigate how the valence-band structure and the electronic density of states (DoS) near the Fermi level evolve under different surface treatments. By employing tunable photon energies across multiple elemental absorption edges, we use resonant photoemission to disentangle and identify the elemental contributions to specific valence-band features. Our observations show that different surface-processing methods lead to distinct temperature evolutions of the DoS and valence-band states near the Fermi level. Our results suggest variations in different Nb-O orbital hybridizations in distinct processes and point towards the possibility of different underlying mechanisms of superconductivity governed by surface chemistry and oxide configuration. We also correlate these distinct superconducting mechanisms with RF cavity performance, specifically focusing on measured surface resistance, the nature of the Q-slope, and quench fields observed in superconducting RF measurements. These results will enable us to identify the potential limiting factors and relevant controllable parameters that can be further optimized to improve the performance of superconducting RF cavities.

Tripathi, Malvika [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000001989251↗
DOE OSTI2026

Full-polarization millimeter wavelength variability of Sagittarius A * during the 2018 EHT campaign

Context. Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, provides a unique laboratory to study accretion dynamics and plasma processes near the event horizon. Aims. We investigated the variability and polarization properties of Sgr A* using ALMA observations during the 2018 Event Horizon Telescope campaign. Methods. We analyzed high-cadence full-polarization light curves from ALMA at millimeter wavelengths, performed time-series analysis, and investigated the temporal behavior during an X-ray flare observed by Chandra on 2018 April 24. The variability characteristics are compared with expectations from standard accretion flow models. Results. We find low variability in total intensity (σ/μ < 10%), but significantly higher variability in linear and circular polarization (∼30% and ∼50%, respectively). A time-series analysis reveals red-noise variability, with power spectral densities between −2 and −3 across all Stokes parameters. Polarized intensity shows stable intra-day timescales, while total intensity exhibits more variable timescales, suggesting distinct emission regions, with polarization likely arising from a coherent structure. On April 24, a statistically significant inter-band delay in polarized intensity coincides with a near-simultaneous X-ray and millimeter peak that deviates from the typical delayed flare scenario. This event also features enhanced millimeter variability and coherent polarization loop evolution. The observed simultaneity challenges standard models of transient synchrotron emission with cooling delays, favoring instead a scenario of continuous energy injection in an optically thin region. Conclusions. Our results offer new constraints on the physical mechanisms driving variability in Sgr A*, and provide key observational input for refining theoretical models of accretion and plasma behavior in the vicinity of supermassive black holes.

Galaxy: center↗
DOE OSTI2024

Co-orchestration of multiple instruments to uncover structure–property relationships in combinatorial libraries

The rapid growth of automated and autonomous instrumentation brings forth opportunities for the co-orchestration of multimodal tools that are equipped with multiple sequential detection methods or several characterization techniques to explore identical samples. This is exemplified by combinatorial libraries that can be explored in multiple locations via multiple tools simultaneously or downstream characterization in automated synthesis systems. In co-orchestration approaches, information gained in one modality should accelerate the discovery of other modalities. Correspondingly, an orchestrating agent should select the measurement modality based on the anticipated knowledge gain and measurement cost. Herein, we propose and implement a co-orchestration approach for conducting measurements with complex observables, such as spectra or images. The method relies on combining dimensionality reduction by variational autoencoders with representation learning for control over the latent space structure and integration into an iterative workflow via multi-task Gaussian Processes (GPs). This approach further allows for the native incorporation of the system's physics via a probabilistic model as a mean function of the GPs. We illustrate this method for different modes of piezoresponse force microscopy and micro-Raman spectroscopy on a combinatorial Sm-BiFeO3 library. However, the proposed framework is general and can be extended to multiple measurement modalities and arbitrary dimensionality of the measured signals.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Simons Observatory: validation of reconstructed power spectra from simulated filtered maps for the small aperture telescope survey

We present a transfer function-based method to estimate angular power spectra from filtered maps for cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys. This is especially relevant for experiments targeting the faint primordial gravitational wave signatures in CMB polarisation at large scales, such as the Simons Observatory (SO) small aperture telescopes. While timestreams can be filtered to mitigate the contamination from low-frequency noise, usual methods that calculate the mode coupling at individual multipoles can be challenging for experiments covering large sky areas or reaching few-arcminute resolution. The method we present here, although approximate, is more practical and faster for larger data volumes. We validate it through the use of simulated observations approximating the first year of SO data, going from half-wave plate-modulated timestreams to maps, and using simulations to estimate the mixing of polarisation modes induced by an example of time-domain filtering. We show its performance through an example null test and with an end-to-end pipeline that performs inference on cosmological parameters, including the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. The performance demonstration uses simulated observations at multiple frequency bands. We find that the method can recover unbiased parameters for our simulated noise levels.

CMBR experiments↗
DOE OSTI2025

Capturing Historic Reliability Performance Through Graph Databases: A Model Based System Engineering Approach

With the goal of improving the performance and reliability of high dependable technological systems such as nuclear power plants, advanced monitoring and health management systems are employed to inform system engineers on observed degradation processes and anomalous behaviors of assets and components. This information is captured in the form of large amount of data which can be heterogenous in nature (e.g., numeric, textual). Such large data availability poses challenges when system engineers are required to parse and analyze them in order to track historic reliability performance of assets and components. This paper tackles directly this challenge by providing means to organize data in the form of a graph: a knowledge graph. The presented approach distinguish itself from current knowledge graph-based methods by the fact that model-based system engineering (MBSE) models are used to “put data into context”. In particular, MBSE models are used as skeleton of a knowledge graph; numeric and textual data elements, once processed, are associated to MBSE model elements. Thus, a knowledge graph captures both system architecture (though MBSE models) and health/performance data. Such feature opens the door to new data analytics methods designed to identify causal relations between observed phenomena.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Production and Evaluation of Fluorophore-Doped Polymer Substrates to Screen for Plastic-Degrading Enzymes

Fast and sensitive analytical methods are the key to efficient screening of plastic-degrading enzymes. Here, we present a streamlined and affordable approach to assess the enzymatic deconstruction of insoluble synthetic polymers by blending them with a fluorescent dye, rhodamine 6G, and we evaluate this screening method using poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) as a model material. Our results indicate that enzymatic depolymerization of the rhodamine-doped PET can be observed in a high-throughput fashion by following release of the fluorophore. The fluorescence data obtained during the hydrolysis of rhodamine-doped PET by 14 PET hydrolases, produced with a robotic platform, correlated with the quantitative chromatographic analysis of PET degradation products. Remarkably, the use of the rhodamine-loaded PET substrate resulted in negligibly low background signals even when detecting PETase activity in crude cell lysates, suggesting suitability for screening of a wide variety of samples. Encouraged by these results, we next produced a selection of polyethylene- and nylon-based materials loaded with rhodamine 6G. While rapid leaching of fluorophore observed with nylon substrates limits the utility of the method for detecting nylonase activity, the rhodamine-loaded polyethylene showed promising performance in passive diffusion tests, indicating that this latter substrate may be used to screen for polyolefin-degrading enzymes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced measurement techniques in quantum Monte Carlo: The permutation matrix representation approach

In a typical finite temperature quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulation, estimators for simple static observables such as specific heat and magnetization are known. With a great deal of system-specific manual labor, one can sometimes also derive more complicated non-local or even dynamic observable estimators. In contrast, we show that arbitrary static observables can be estimated within the permutation matrix representation (PMR) flavor for any Hamiltonian. We then generalize these results to general imaginary-time correlation functions and non-trivial integrated susceptibilities thereof. Finally, we demonstrate the practical versatility of our method by estimating various non-local, random observables for the transverse-field Ising model on a square lattice and a toy random model.

Permutation matrix representation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploiting 20 Ne Isotopes for Precision Characterizations of Collectivity in Small Systems

Whether or not femto-scale droplets of quark-gluon plasma (QGP) are formed in so-called small systems at high-energy colliders is a pressing question in the phenomenology of the strong interaction. For proton-proton or proton-nucleus collisions the answer is inconclusive due to the large theoretical uncertainties plaguing the description of these processes. While upcoming data on collisions of 16 O nuclei may mitigate these uncertainties in the near future, here we demonstrate the unique possibilities offered by complementing 16 O + 16 O data with collisions of 20 Ne ions. We couple both nuclear lattice effective field theory (NLEFT) and projected generator coordinate method (PGCM) ab initio descriptions of the structure of 20 Ne and 16 O to hydrodynamic simulations of 16 O + 16 O and 20 Ne + 20 Ne collisions at high energy. We isolate the imprints of the bowling-pin shape of 20 Ne on the collective flow of hadrons, which can be used to perform quantitative tests of the hydrodynamic QGP paradigm. In particular, we predict that the elliptic flow of 20 Ne + 20 Ne collisions is enhanced by as much as 1.174⁢(8) stat ⁢(31) syst for NLEFT and 1.139⁢(6) stat ⁢(39) syst for PGCM relative to 16 O + 16 O collisions for the 1% most central events. At the same time, theoretical uncertainties largely cancel when studying relative variations of observables between two systems. This demonstrates a method based on experiments with two light-ion species for precision characterizations of the collective dynamics and its emergence in a small system.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic inference in very large universes

Our current favored cosmological theories allow for the striking and controversial possibility that the observable universe is just a small part of a much larger universe in which parameters that describe the effective, low-energy laws of physics vary from one region to another. The controversy is largely driven by the fact that such a “very large universe” is mostly observationally inaccessible to us, so the issue arises of how we can reasonably assess a theory that describes such a universe. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian method for theory assessment based on theory-generated probability distributions for our observations. We focus on the principles that define this method, leaving aside concerns about how, in practice, one would carry out the required calculations. (One important issue that we set aside is the measure problem.) We argue that cosmological theories can be tested by the standard method of Bayesian updating, but we need to use theoretical predictions for “first-person” probabilities—that is, probabilities that we should use for our observations, taking into account all relevant selection effects. These selection effects can vary from one observer to another and can vary with time, so, in principle, first-person probabilities are defined for each observer instant—an observer at a specific instant of time. Calculations of first-person probabilities should take into account everything that the observer believes about herself and her surroundings, which we refer to as her subjective state. If the universe is very large, a theory might predict that there are many observer instants in the same subjective state; we argue that first-person probabilities should be calculated using a principle of self-locating indifference (PSLI), the assumption that any real observer should make predictions for her future as if she were chosen randomly and uniformly from the theoretically predicted observer instants that share her subjective state. We believe the PSLI is intuitively very reasonable, but we also argue that, if the theory is correct, the use of this principle maximizes the expected fraction of observers who will make correct predictions. A further complication is that cosmological theories are not expected to fully predict the detailed properties of the universe, but rather will predict a set of possible universes, each with a probability. Different possible universes will generically have different numbers of observers. We argue that, in the calculation of first-person probabilities, the probability for each possible universe should be weighted by the number of observer instants in the specified subjective state that it contains. These issues have been controversial in the literature, so we also provide a rebuttal to the claim that principles like the PSLI involve a “selection fallacy”; a rebuttal to what we dub the principle of required certainty; an argument rejecting theories that predict a preponderance of Boltzmann brains; a rebuttal to a parable about humans and Jovians used by Hartle and Srednicki to argue that assumptions of typicality can lead to absurd consequences; and, finally, a discussion about how the use of “old evidence” can be fit into a Bayesian mold.

Azhar, Feraz [University of Notre Dame, IN (United↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing line-of-sight selection biases in galaxy-scale strong lensing with external convergence and shear

The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will dramatically increase the number of strong gravitational lensing systems, requiring precise modeling of line-of-sight (LOS) effects to mitigate biases in lensing observations and cosmological inferences. We develop a method to construct joint distributions of external convergence (κ ext ) and shear (γ ext ) for strong lensing LOS by aggregating large-scale structure simulations with high-resolution halo renderings and non-linear correction. Our approach captures both smooth background matter and perturbations from halos, enabling accurate modeling of LOS effects. Here, we apply non-linear LOS corrections to κ ext and γ ext that address the non-additive lensing effects caused by objects along the LOS in strong lensing. We find that, with a minimum image separation of 1.0'', non-linear LOS correction due to the presence of a dominant deflector slightly increases the ratio of quadruple to double lenses; this non-linear LOS correction also introduces systematic biases of ∼ 0.1% for galaxy-AGN lens in the inferred Hubble constant (H 0 ) if not accounted for. We also observe a 0.66% bias for galaxy-galaxy lenses on H 0 , and even larger biases 1.02% for galaxy-AGN systems if LOS effects are not accounted for. These results highlight the importance of LOS for precision cosmology. The publicly available code and datasets provide tools for incorporating LOS effects in future analyses.

Hubble constant↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Extinction‐, Satellite‐, and Model‐Based Vertical Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) Retrieval Methods Using Airborne CCN Measurements Over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract Accurate estimates of the vertical profile of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration are crucial to better quantify aerosol‐cloud interactions. We assessed the correlation between the vertical CCN concentrations obtained from extinction‐, satellite‐, and model‐based retrieval methods and airborne CCN concentrations collected at 0.24% supersaturation within the 3, 9, 27, and 81 km regions centered over the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User Facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) site during the spring and summer of 2016. The extinction profiles at a wavelength 355 nm were provided by the ground‐based Raman lidar. Our analysis showed moderate correlation between dry‐corrected extinction and airborne CCN data. We found the retrieved number concentration of CCN (RNCCN) method showed regression best‐fit slopes close to unity and consistent prediction errors for the majority of the data. The Lenhardt et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt‐16‐2037‐2023 ) method showed similar conclusions but only during spring, whereas the Mamouri and Ansmann (2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐16‐5905‐2016 ) method showed poor correlation. The Shinozuka et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐15‐7585‐2015 ) satellite‐based method exhibited reasonable agreement during summer but poor correlation during periods where both high (∼1,400 #/cm 3 ) and low (∼50 #/cm 3 ) airborne CCN concentrations were observed. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis modeled 3‐D CCN data set showed a moderate to weak positive correlation but performed poorly at high airborne CCN concentrations. Our analysis suggests the extinction‐based RNCCN method performed better than other methods across most observation periods under the diverse meteorological conditions observed at the SGP site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design Report on the MiniFuel Instrumented Test Apparatus for Understanding Radiation Effects

Most nuclear fuels irradiations at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) over the past decade have been conducted using MiniFuel—a static capsule design employing subscale fuel specimens to collect separate-effects irradiated fuel performance data. Irradiation conditions for MiniFuel experiments are predicted pre-test using reactor physics, and thermal models are verified post-irradiation via SiC dilatometry and various spectrometry methods. Relevant fuel performance parameters are also observed post-irradiation in a hot cell, thereby providing a single data point for each parameter representing the cumulative effects of the irradiation conditions. Substantially more data can be harvested from a single test and within a shorter duration by instrumenting irradiation vehicles and measuring desired quantities in situ. This report presents the design and analysis of the MiniFuel INstrumented Irradiation Test Apparatus for Understanding Radiation Effects (MINITAURE)—an instrumented test rig based on the separate-effects MiniFuel concept that aims to capture fission gas release (FGR) and thermal conductivity degradation of fuel specimens during irradiation in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). MINITAURE will be integrated with the Materials Irradiation Facility (MIF) located in the HFIR building outside the reactor containment. The MIF will act as the instrumentation and control center for the experiment, enabling real-time feedback from in situ sensors and control of irradiation temperatures via a gas delivery system. Two unique capsule designs were developed to capture each phenomenon: the thermal conductivity capsule, which uses a thermopile method to estimate fuel specimen thermal conductivity, and the fission gas release capsule, which will have continuous flowing gas communication to high-purity germanium detectors that are housed in the MIF for monitoring FGR. This report details the reactor physics and heat transfer modeling activities that were used to inform the experiment design and predict capsule performance. It also describes out-of-pile activities conducted to stand up this new capability and verify the measurement techniques. Modeling efforts to date have demonstrated the feasibility of the in situ measurement techniques and supported the development of the MINITAURE assembly configuration. Out-of-pile testing of the thermal conductivity measurement shows promise in capturing relative changes in thermal conductivity. However, significant errors exist in the measured absolute value, posing a need for further refinement.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of measurement techniques and sorption of radium-226 in low and high salinity aqueous samples

Human activities have the potential to redistribute radium (Ra) in the marine environment in a manner that may necessitate monitoring or management of subsequent human or environmental exposures. There is therefore a need to identify accurate and accessible techniques for Ra measurement in high salinity samples and to describe the distribution of Ra in estuarine and marine environments, but most efforts in these areas have focused on low salinity matrices. In addition, rapid and reliable measurements are crucial for time-sensitive samples such as short-lived isotopes or emergency situations. The objective of this study is to describe the limits of detection, cost, and relative ease for measurement of Ra in both low and high salinity aqueous samples via three analytical methods: liquid scintillation counting (LSC), high purity germanium (HPGe) gamma spectrometry, and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). To contextualize these measurements for real-world scenarios, the partitioning of 226 Ra to substrates relevant to the marine environment was also characterized. Although HPGe detection with solid phase extraction had the lowest limit of detection for low salinity samples (0.27 Bq L −1 ), poor 226 Ra recovery for high salinity samples and high materials costs make this method prohibitive for many users. Limits of detection for high salinity samples were lower for LSC (1.28 Bq L −1 ) than for ICP-MS without dilution (11.4 Bq L −1 ), but significant and unexpected degradation of the high salinity LSC standards was observed after six months. Furthermore, our preferred measurement method for high salinity Ra samples is ICP-MS with sample dilution as necessary to reduce matrix effects.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Supertranslations from Scattering Amplitudes

On shell methods have found a new application to local observables such as asymptotic radiation fields and gravitational waveforms. While these observables are invariant under small gauge transformations, they are known to depend on a choice of asymptotic gauge; in gravity on asymptotically Minkowski spacetimes, this is a choice of Bondi-Van der Burg-Metzner-Sachs frame. In this Letter, we provide a method for capturing these supertranslations, to all orders in perturbation theory, using the on shell framework of scattering amplitudes.

Classical black holes↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Methodology for the Analysis of Water Oxidation Electrocatalysts in the Absence of Limiting Current that Avoids the Pitfalls of Existing Methods

Water oxidation is an important reaction studied as a way to generate electrons from water, to promote water splitting and the formation of green hydrogen. When using electrodes to drive homogeneous water oxidation catalysis, cyclic voltammograms are analyzed to provide catalytic rate constants. There are two main methods, foot-of-the-wave analysis (FOWA) and limiting current analysis. FOWA relies on approximations inherent to analyzing water oxidation catalysis, such as determining the formal potential of the catalytic intermediate, E 0 cat . Limiting current methods are the optimal way to analyze catalyst performance but rely on observable limiting current, which is virtually never seen in water oxidation. To avoid those issues, a method is proposed for analyzing nonideal cyclic voltammetry waveshapes in water oxidation: by analyzing rate data across a large range of potentials, an optimal potential, E 0 cat , can be obtained, where catalytic current, i cat , is nearly independent of scan rate and has a linear dependency on buffer concentration. Here, the method is applied to four homogeneous water oxidation catalysts with prior extensive electrochemical elucidation, all of which lack an ideal, purely kinetic waveshape in cyclic voltammetry. Application of the method avoids the biases of the other methods cited for the kinetic analyses of water oxidation catalysts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atomic-scale secondary electron imaging for heterogeneous catalysis research

Surface characterization at the atomic scale is essential for understanding the catalytic properties of supported metal nanoparticles. Secondary electron (SE) imaging in scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) provides three-dimensional surface topographic information, enabling the characterization of the size, morphology, and distribution of supported nanoparticles. Furthermore, real-time observation of catalyst materials in a gaseous environment would enhance the understanding of catalyst dynamics under operational conditions. Ongoing technical developments in SE-STEM and advancements in computational methods are expected to facilitate atomic-scale surface observations and enable more quantitative and statistical analyses. This progress will not only elucidate fundamental mechanisms at the atomic level but also provide comprehensive and universal insights into catalyst performances. Here, this minireview showcases the recent advancements and research findings in surface-sensitive SE imaging in STEM for the characterization of active catalyst materials.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measuring quantum discord at the LHC

There has been an increasing interest in exploring quantities associated with quantum information at colliders. We perform a detailed analysis describing how to measure the quantum discord in the top anti-top quantum state at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). While for pure states, quantum discord, entanglement, and Bell nonlocality all probe the same correlations, for mixed states they probe different aspects of quantum correlations. The quantum discord, in particular, is interesting because it aims to encapsulate all correlations between systems that cannot have a classical origin. We employ two complementary approaches for the study of the top anti-top system, namely the decay method and the kinematic method. We highlight subtleties associated with measuring discord for reconstructed quantum states at colliders. Usually quantum discord is difficult to compute due to an extremization that must be performed. We show, however, that for the $t\bar{t}$ system this extremization can be performed analytically and we provide closed-form formulas for the quantum discord. We demonstrate that with current LHC datasets, quantum discord can be observed at 3.6 – 5.7σ, depending on the signal region, with the decay method and can be measured at a precision of 0.1 – 0.2% with the kinematic method. At the high luminosity LHC, the observation of quantum discord is expected to be > 5σ using both the decay and kinematic methods and can be measured with a precision of 5% with the decay method and 0.05% with the kinematic method. Additionally, we identify the kinematic cuts at the LHC to isolate the $t\bar{t}$ state that is separable but has non-zero discord. By systematically investigating quantum discord for the first time through a detailed collider analysis, this work expands the toolkit for quantum information studies in particle physics and lays the groundwork for deeper insights into the quantum properties in high-energy collisions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗