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At least 199 records · Page 11

BrazilClim : The overcoming of limitations of pre‐existing bioclimate data

Abstract Species distribution modelling has become instrumental in assessing the influence of environmental conditions on the occurrence or abundance of taxa. The set of environmental layers used for this purpose is a crucial aspect, for which different climate‐based (bioclimatic) datasets have been recently developed. These bioclimatic variables result from combinations of precipitation and temperatures surfaces. Here, we explored both the performance and possibility of improving some of the currently available bioclimatic databases, through an evaluation of the precipitation and temperatures surfaces used to generate them. For this purpose, we used a combination of statistic and graphic approaches. We focused on Brazil, not only due to its natural megadiversity, but also due to its continental size and orographic heterogeneity: an excellent ground for refining methods replicable elsewhere. We found a better match between the climatic data measured on‐field and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B43 v7) in the case of precipitation, and the surfaces provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the case of temperatures, sources uncommonly used for species niche modelling. We gauge‐calibrated the best performing surfaces using machine‐learning algorithms and generated corrected surfaces that allowed us to create BrazilClim: a database of bioclimatic variables, based on improved primary surfaces, which will result in more assertive predicted distributions and more actual pictures of the species' ecological requirements for megadiverse Brazil, an approach replicable elsewhere. All primary and bioclimatic surfaces generated for this study may be freely downloaded.

Ramoni‐Perazzi, Paolo↗

Offshore wind energy forecasting sensitivity to sea surface temperature input in the Mid-Atlantic

Abstract. As offshore wind farm development expands, accurate wind resource forecasting over the ocean is needed. One important yet relatively unexplored aspect of offshore wind resource assessment is the role of sea surface temperature (SST). Models are generally forced with reanalysis data sets, which employ daily SST products. Compared with observations, significant variations in SSTs that occur on finer timescales are often not captured. Consequently, shorter-lived events such as sea breezes and low-level jets (among others), which are influenced by SSTs, may not be correctly represented in model results. The use of hourly SST products may improve the forecasting of these events. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) 4.2.1 to different SST products. We first evaluate three different data sets: the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR25) SST analysis, a daily, 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution product; the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA), a daily, 0.054∘ × 0.054∘ resolution product; and SSTs from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16), an hourly, 0.02∘ × 0.02∘ resolution product. GOES-16 is not processed at the same level as OSTIA and MUR25; therefore, the product requires gap-filling using an interpolation method to create a complete map with no missing data points. OSTIA and GOES-16 SSTs validate markedly better against buoy observations than MUR25, so these two products are selected for use with model simulations, while MUR25 is at this point removed from consideration. We run the model for June and July of 2020 and find that for this time period, in the Mid-Atlantic, although OSTIA SSTs overall validate better against in situ observations taken via a buoy array in the area, the two products result in comparable hub-height (140 m) wind characterization performance on monthly timescales. Additionally, during hours-long flagged events (< 30 h each) that show statistically significant wind speed deviations between the two simulations, both simulations once again demonstrate similar validation performance (differences in bias, earth mover's distance, correlation, and root mean square error on the order of 10−1 or less), with GOES-16 winds validating nominally better than OSTIA winds. With a more refined GOES-16 product, which has been not only gap-filled but also assimilated with in situ SST measurements in the region, it is likely that hub-height winds characterized by GOES-16-informed simulations would definitively validate better than those informed by OSTIA SSTs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Invisible water in subducted crust: Lawsonite velocity anomalies under mantle conditions

Subduction zones transport significant amounts of water into Earth’s mantle, primarily through hydrous minerals such as lawsonite. However, the seismic detectability of lawsonite-bearing oceanic crust at mantle depths remains uncertain. To address this issue, we measured sound velocities of lawsonite up to 7.4 GPa and 600 °C. Both P- and S-wave velocities exhibited unexpected increases with temperature under high-pressure conditions. Our result suggest that hydrous oceanic crust exhibits higher seismic velocities than the surrounding mantle at depths of 150 to 250 km, resulting in high-velocity anomalies rather than the previously assumed low-velocity anomalies. Furthermore, the seismic velocity difference between hydrous and dry oceanic crust is less than 2%, making it challenging to distinguish between them using seismic velocities. This limitation may hinder the detection of the hydration state in subducted crust. In addition, lawsonite remains stable in 90% of subduction zones, and thus, such “seismically invisible water” may exist in most subducted slabs around the world.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Generation of low–latitude seamount–trapped waves: a case study of the Seychelles Plateau

Baroclinic seamount-trapped waves are thought to influence their surrounding ecosystem; however, trapped waves are not well-studied in near-equatorial settings, where stratification is strong and Burger numbers are large. Motivated by observations, we use daily output (2005-2009) from the global 0.1-degree Parallel Ocean Program Model (POP) to examine topographically trapped baroclinic waves around the Seychelles Plateau (S > 400) in the tropical Indian Ocean. These trapped waves are associated with velocity and temperature oscillations at periods of 15–16 days, similar to the dominant period of some equatorial Yanai waves. Energy flux maps using POP output suggest that quasi-biweekly equatorial Yanai waves excite trapped waves on the western and south-western flanks of the Seychelles Plateau, near the surface. Here, the anticyclonic energy flux associated with the trapped wave extends vertically throughout the water column and around most of the plateau circumference, diminishing on the eastern flank of the plateau. This work highlights the role that equatorial planetary waves and trapped waves play in facilitating energy redistribution, dissipation, and mixing in the tropical ocean.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Roles of the atmosphere and ocean in the projected north atlantic warming hole

There exists a warming deficit in sea surface temperatures (SST) over the subpolar North Atlantic in response to quadrupled CO 2 , referred to as the projected North Atlantic warming hole (WH). This study employs a partial coupling technique to accurately verify the relative roles of oceanic and atmospheric processes in the formation of the projected WH within an atmosphere-ocean coupled framework. By decomposing the SST anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic into two components: those induced by atmospheric processes (i.e., the atmosphere-forced component) and those driven by changes in ocean circulation (i.e., the ocean-driven component), we find that the projected WH is primarily driven by changes in ocean circulation, with almost no contribution from atmospheric processes. Specifically, the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) results in a cooling of SST in the WH region due to reduced northward ocean heat transport into this region. This study further quantifies the influence of a positive coupled feedback through surface heat flux (SHF) on the AMOC response under greenhouse gas forcing within this self-consistent framework. It is found that the AMOC slowdown leads to a negative SST anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic and subsequently a positive ocean-driven SHF anomaly, which in turn further weakens the AMOC. In conclusion, this positive feedback through the SHF contributes about 50% to the total AMOC slowdown in response to quadrupled CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The GFDL‐CM4X Climate Model Hierarchy, Part I: Model Description and Thermal Properties

We present the GFDL‐CM4X (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 4X) coupled climate model hierarchy. The primary application for CM4X is to investigate ocean and sea ice physics as part of a realistic coupled Earth climate model. CM4X utilizes an updated MOM6 (Modular Ocean Model version 6) ocean physics package relative to CM4.0, and there are two members of the hierarchy: one that uses a horizontal grid spacing of 0.25° (referred to as CM4X‐p25) and the other that uses a grid 0.125° (CM4X‐p125). CM4X also refines its atmospheric grid from the nominally 100 km (cubed sphere C96) of CM4.0–50 km (C192). Finally, CM4X simplifies the land model to allow for a more focused study of the role of ocean changes to global mean climate. CM4X‐p125 reaches a global ocean area mean heat flux imbalance of -0.02 W m -2 within $\mathcal{O}$ (150) years in a pre‐industrial simulation, and retains that thermally equilibrated state over the subsequent centuries. This 1850 thermal equilibrium is characterized by roughly 400 ZJ less ocean heat than present‐day, which corresponds to estimates for anthropogenic ocean heat uptake between 1870 and present‐day. CM4X‐p25 approaches its thermal equilibrium only after more than 1000 years, at which time its ocean has roughly 1100 ZJ more heat than its early 21st century ocean initial state. Furthermore, the root‐mean‐square sea surface temperature bias for historical simulations is roughly 20% smaller in CM4X‐p125 relative to CM4X‐p25 (and CM4.0). We offer the mesoscale dominance hypothesis for why CM4X‐p125 shows such favorable thermal equilibration properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production

We use a modern Earth system model to approximate the relative importance of ice versus temperature on Arctic marine ecosystem dynamics. We show that while the model adequately simulates ice volume, water temperature, air-sea CO 2 flux, and annual primary production in the Arctic, itunderestimates upper water column nitrate across the region. This nitrate bias is likely responsible for the apparent underestimation of ice algae production. Despite this shortcoming, the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on phytoplankton production and carbon dynamics over the Arctic Ocean. Our experiments indicate that under a warmer climate scenario, the percentage of ocean warming that could be apportioned to a reduction in ice area ranged from 11% to 100%, while decreasing ice area could account for 22–100% of the increase in annual ocean primary production. The change to CO2 air-sea flux in response to ice and temperature changes averaged an Arctic-wide 5.5 Tg C yr –1 (3.5%) increase, into the ocean. This increased carbon sink may be short-lived, as ice cover continues to decrease and the ocean warms. The change in carbon fixation from phytoplankton in response to increased temperatures and reduced ice was generally more than a magnitude larger than the changes to CO 2 flux, highlighting the importance of fully considering changes to the marine ecosystem when assessing Arctic carbon cycle dynamics. Our work demonstrates the importance of ice dynamics in controlling ocean warming and production and thus the need for well-behaved ice and BGC models within Earth system models if we hope to accurately predict Arctic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble From 1920 to 2100

To provide context for observed sea level rise, the forced response (FR) in dynamic sea level (DSL) during the 20th and 21st centuries is examined in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LE). After accounting for simulation drift, which in the LE is sizable, the DSL FR is found to be complex, both in space and time. Its evolving character is suggested to arise from both the diversity and transient evolution of climate forcing agents and the slow adjustment timescales of the intermediate and deep oceans. Nonetheless, various intervals of spatially coherent change simulated for the recent past and near future are identified, and their characteristics and associated driving mechanisms are identified and discussed. The mid- to late-20th century DSL FR is characterized by an hemispherically asymmetric pattern of change, with depressed rates of rise in the northern oceans. There is also a dipole of change in the Southern Ocean caused by changes in near-surface zonal winds. Through the late 20th and early 21st centuries, a different pattern of rise emerges with elevated rates in the tropics and depressed rates at high latitudes. Zonal and interbasin variations characterize both intervals and involve the pattern and depth of anomalous ocean heat content storage and spatial contrasts in the expansion coefficient tied mainly to base state temperature, with greater rates of rise in warm regions per unit warming. Finally, the relative roles of surface flux and ocean convergence anomalies are examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decoding the dynamics of poleward shifting climate zones using aqua-planet model simulations

Growing evidence indicates that the atmospheric and oceanic circulation experiences a systematic poleward shift in a warming climate. However, the complexity of the climate system, including the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, natural climate variability and land-sea distribution, tends to obfuscate the causal mechanism underlying the circulation shift. Here, using an idealised coupled aqua-planet model, we explore the mechanism of the shifting circulation, by isolating the contributing factors from the direct CO 2 forcing, the indirect ocean surface warming, and the wind-stress feedback from the ocean dynamics. We find that, in contrast to the direct CO 2 forcing, ocean surface warming, in particular an enhanced subtropical ocean warming, plays an important role in driving the circulation shift. This enhanced subtropical ocean warming emerges from the background Ekman convergence of surface anomalous heat in the absence of the ocean dynamical change. Additionally, it expands the tropical warm water zone, causes a poleward shift of the mid-latitude temperature gradient, hence forces a corresponding shift in the atmospheric circulation and the associated wind pattern. The shift in wind, in turn drives a shift in the ocean circulation. Our simulations, despite being idealised, capture the main features of the observed climate changes, for example, the enhanced subtropical ocean warming, poleward shift of the patterns of near-surface wind, sea level pressure, storm tracks, precipitation and large-scale ocean circulation, implying that increase in greenhouse gas concentrations not only raises the temperature, but can also systematically shift the climate zones poleward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evolution of oxygen and stratification and their relationship in the North Pacific Ocean in CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. This study examines the linkages between the upper-ocean (0–200 m) oxygen (O2) content and stratification in the North Pacific Ocean using four Earth system models (ESMs), an ocean hindcast simulation, and an ocean reanalysis. The trends and variability in oceanic O2 content are driven by the imbalance between physical supply and biological demand. Physical supply is primarily controlled by ocean ventilation, which is responsible for the transport of O2-rich surface waters to the subsurface. Isopycnic potential vorticity (IPV), a quasi-conservative tracer proportional to density stratification that can be evaluated from temperature and salinity measurements, is used herein as a dynamical proxy for ocean ventilation. The predictability potential of the IPV field is evaluated through its information entropy. The results highlight a strong O2–IPV connection and somewhat higher (as compared to the rest of the basin) predictability potential for IPV across the tropical Pacific, where the El Niño–Southern Oscillation occurs. This pattern of higher predictability and strong anticorrelation between O2 and stratification is robust across multiple models and datasets. In contrast, IPV at mid-latitudes has low predictability potential and its center of action differs from that of O2. In addition, the locations of extreme events or hotspots may or may not differ between the two fields, with a strong model dependency, which persists in future projections. On the one hand, these results suggest that it may be possible to monitor ocean O2 in the tropical Pacific based on a few observational sites co-located with the more abundant IPV measurements; on the other, they lead us to question the robustness of the IPV–O2 relationship in the extratropics. The proposed framework helps to characterize and interpret O2 variability in relation to physical variability and may be especially useful in the analysis of new observation-based data products derived from the BGC-Argo float array in combination with the traditional but far more abundant Argo data.

Novi, Lyuba↗

Zonal‐Scale of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Propagation Speed on the Interannual Time‐Scale

Abstract While no significant long‐term trend in the propagation speed of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter is found during the past decades, pronounced year‐to‐year variability of the MJO phase speed is illustrated by analyzing a century‐long record data set. During the winters when fast MJO propagation is observed, the MJO exhibits a much larger zonal‐scale than that during the winters with slow propagation. A broader extension in MJO circulation effectively induces stronger and broader lower‐tropospheric moistening (drying) to the east (west) of MJO through horizontal moisture advection, prompting a faster MJO phase speed. The larger MJO zonal‐scale during the fast MJO propagation winters is coincident with anomalously increased background sea surface temperatures and precipitable water over both the western Indian Ocean and central/eastern Pacific, reminiscent of an expansion of the Indo‐Pacific warm pool. A fundamental question remains open regarding the key processes that determine the zonal‐scale of MJO organization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dissipation Scaled Internal Wave Drag in a Global Heterogeneously Coupled Internal/External Mode Total Water Level Model

This study showcases a global, heterogeneously coupled total water level system wherein salinity and temperature outputs from a coarser-resolution (~12 km) ocean general circulation model are used to calculate density-driven terms within a global, higher-resolution (~2.5 km) depth-averaged total water level model. We demonstrate that the inclusion of baroclinic forcing in the barotropic model requires modification of the internal wave drag term to prevent excess degradation of tidal results compared to the barotropic model. By scaling the internal tide dissipation by an easy to calculate dissipation ratio, the resulting heterogeneously coupled model has complex root mean square errors (RMSE) of 2.27 cm in the deep ocean and 12.16 cm in shallow waters for the M 2 tidal constituent. While this represents a 10%–20% deterioration as compared to the barotropic model, the improvements in total water level prediction more than offset this degradation. Global median RMSE compared to observations of total water levels, 30-day sea levels, and non-tidal residuals improve by 1.86 (18.5%), 2.55 (42.5%), and 0.36 (5.3%) cm respectively. The drastic improvement in model performance highlights the importance of including density-driven effects within global hydrodynamic models and will help to improve the results of both hindcasts and forecasts in modeling extreme and nuisance flooding. With only an 11% increase in model run time compared to the fully barotropic total water level model, this approach paves the way for high resolution coastal water level and flood models to be used alongside climate models, improving operational forecasting of total water levels.

Blakely, Coleman Peter [University of Notre Dame, ↗

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The carbon content of Earth and its core

Earth’s core is likely the largest reservoir of carbon (C) in the planet, but its C abundance has been poorly constrained because measurements of carbon’s preference for core versus mantle materials at the pressures and temperatures of core formation are lacking. Using metal–silicate partitioning experiments in a laser-heated diamond anvil cell, we show that carbon becomes significantly less siderophile as pressures and temperatures increase to those expected in a deep magma ocean during formation of Earth’s core. Based on a multistage model of core formation, the core likely contains a maximum of 0.09(4) to 0.20(10) wt% C, making carbon a negligible contributor to the core’s composition and density. However, this accounts for ~80 to 90% of Earth’s overall carbon inventory, which totals 370(150) to 740(370) ppm. The bulk Earth’s carbon/sulfur ratio is best explained by the delivery of most of Earth’s volatiles from carbonaceous chondrite-like precursors.

Geosciences↗

Tropical Indian Ocean drives Hadley circulation change in a warming climate

ABSTRACT The weakening and poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation (HC) are considered robust responses of atmospheric meridional circulation to anthropogenic warming. Climate impacts arising from these changes enhance drought conditions and reduce food production in the affected regions. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms of HC changes is critical to anticipating the resultant climate risks. First, we demonstrate that robust future HC changes in boreal winter, and the uncertainty in their future projections, are both largely related to sea surface temperature (SST) warming. Next, we investigate the impact of anthropogenic regional ocean warming on the future HC. Accordingly, we conduct a large ensemble of individual ocean basin perturbation experiments at 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warming thresholds (as in the Paris Agreement). These experiments highlight (i) the leading role of tropical Indian Ocean warming in HC changes and (ii) inter-model differences in tropical Pacific warming as a source of uncertainty in HC projections.

Sun, Yong (ORCID:0000000210876060)↗

Statistically Steady State Large-Eddy Simulations Forced by an Idealized GCM: 1. Forcing Framework and Simulation Characteristics

Using large-eddy simulations (LES) systematically has the potential to inform parameterizations of subgrid-scale (SGS) processes in general circulation models (GCMs), such as turbulence, convection, and clouds. Here we show how LES can be run to emulate grid columns of GCMs to generate a library of LES across a cross-section of dynamical regimes. The LES setup replicates the thermodynamic and water budgets in GCM grid columns. Resolved horizontal and vertical transports of heat and water and large-scale pressure gradients from the GCM are prescribed as forcing in the LES. The LES satisfies the same (slab-ocean) surface boundary conditions as the GCM, leaving the LES temperatures free to adjust. Radiative transfer is treated in a unied but highly idealized manner (a semi-gray atmosphere without cloud radiative effects) in both the GCM and LES. We show that the LES with these forcing and boundary conditions reaches statistically steady states without nudging to reference profiles. These steady states provide a training dataset for developing GCM parameterizations. The same LES setup also provides a good basis for studying the cloud response to global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Comparative Study of Cloud Properties Between Northern and Southern High Latitudes Based on ARM Observations and EAMv2 Simulations

Earth's high-latitude regions show a considerable amount of cloud coverage, which significantly affects global radiation budgets. Here, in this study, we examine ground- and ship-based remote sensing observations from two Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) field campaigns conducted in the high-latitude regions of Northern and Southern Hemispheres (NH and SH). A comparison of macrophysical properties for low, mid-level, high, and deep clouds shows that the cloud top heights and thickness values are higher in the Arctic for each cloud type compared with the Southern Ocean and Antarctic regions, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the north Atlantic. The Arctic also shows lower ice phase occurrence frequencies compared with the SH high latitudes for low clouds. For high, mid-level and deep clouds, the cloud phase distributions as a function of temperature show small geographical variabilities. The observations are then compared with the Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to evaluate the representations of these cloud properties. Here, the results show that the model captures cloud base and top heights well and reproduces the differences in cloud macrophysical properties between the two hemispheres. But the model underestimates ice phase frequencies for all cloud types. Such model cloud phase bias is strongly correlated with positive relative humidity biases and negative aerosol number concentration biases, indicating an important role of relative humidity and aerosols in modulating cloud phase partitioning in the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pre-Bleaching Coral Microbiome Is Enriched in Beneficial Taxa and Functions

Coral reef health is tightly connected to the coral holobiont, which is the association between the coral animal and a diverse microbiome functioning as a unit. The coral holobiont depends on key services such as nitrogen and sulfur cycling mediated by the associated bacteria. However, these microbial services may be impaired in response to environmental changes, such as thermal stress. A perturbed microbiome may lead to coral bleaching and disease outbreaks, which have caused an unprecedented loss in coral cover worldwide, particularly correlated to a warming ocean. The response mechanisms of the coral holobiont under high temperatures are not completely understood, but the associated microbial community is a potential source of acquired heat-tolerance. Here we investigate the effects of increased temperature on the taxonomic and functional profiles of coral surface mucous layer (SML) microbiomes in relationship to coral–algal physiology. We used shotgun metagenomics in an experimental setting to understand the dynamics of microbial taxa and genes in the SML microbiome of the coral Pseudodiploria strigosa under heat treatment. The metagenomes of corals exposed to heat showed high similarity at the level of bacterial genera and functional genes related to nitrogen and sulfur metabolism and stress response. The coral SML microbiome responded to heat with an increase in the relative abundance of taxa with probiotic potential, and functional genes for nitrogen and sulfur acquisition. Coral–algal physiology significantly explained the variation in the microbiome at taxonomic and functional levels. These consistent and specific microbial taxa and gene functions that significantly increased in proportional abundance in corals exposed to heat are potentially beneficial to coral health and thermal resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗