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The Role of Self-Organized Criticality in the Substorm Phenomenon and its Relation to Localized Reconnection in the Magnetospheric Plasma Sheet

Evidence is presented that suggests there is a significant self-organized criticality (SOC) component in the dynamics of substorms in the magnetosphere. Observations of BBFs, fast flows, localized dipolarizations, plasma turbulence, etc. are taken to show that multiple localized reconnection sites provide the basic avalanche phenomenon in the establishment of SOC in the plasma sheet. First results are presented from a continuing plasma physical study of this avalanche process. A one-dimensional resistive MHD model of a magnetic field reversal is discussed. Resistivity, in this model, is self-consistently generated in response to the excitation of an idealized current-driven instability. When forced by convection of magnetic flux into the field reversal region, the model yields rapid magnetic field annihilation through a dynamic behavior that is shown to exhibit many of the characteristics of SOC. Over a large range of forcing strengths, the annihilation rate is shown to self-adjust to balance the rate at which flux is convected into the reversal region. Several analogies to magnetotail dynamics are discussed: (1) It is shown that the presence of a localized criticality in the model produces a remarkable stability in the global configuration of the field reversal while simultaneously exciting extraordinarily dynamic internal evolution. (2) Under steady forcing, it is shown that a loading-unloading cycle may arise that, as a consequence of the global stability, is quasi-periodic and, therefore, predictable despite the presence of internal turbulence in the field distribution. Indeed, it is shown that the global loading-unloading cycle is a consequence of the internal turbulence. (3) It is shown that, under steady, strong forcing the loading-unloading cycle vanishes. Instead, a recovery from a single unloading persists indefinitely. The field reversal is globally very steady while internally it is very dynamic as field annihilation goes on at the rate necessary to match the strong forcing. From this result we speculate that steady magnetospheric convection events result when the plasma sheet has been driven close to criticality over an extended spatial domain. During these events, we would expect to find localized reconnection sites distributed over the spatial domain of near criticality and we would expect to find plasma sheet transport in that domain to be closely related to that of BBF and fast flow events.

Klimas, Alex J.↗

Update On the Status of the FLUKA Monte Carlo Transport Code*

The FLUKA Monte Carlo transport code is a well-known simulation tool in High Energy Physics. FLUKA is a dynamic tool in the sense that it is being continually updated and improved by the authors. We review the progress achieved since the last CHEP Conference on the physics models, some technical improvements to the code and some recent applications. From the point of view of the physics, improvements have been made with the extension of PEANUT to higher energies for p, n, pi, pbar/nbar and for nbars down to the lowest energies, the addition of the online capability to evolve radioactive products and get subsequent dose rates, upgrading of the treatment of EM interactions with the elimination of the need to separately prepare preprocessed files. A new coherent photon scattering model, an updated treatment of the photo-electric effect, an improved pair production model, new photon cross sections from the LLNL Cullen database have been implemented. In the field of nucleus-- nucleus interactions the electromagnetic dissociation of heavy ions has been added along with the extension of the interaction models for some nuclide pairs to energies below 100 MeV/A using the BME approach, as well as the development of an improved QMD model for intermediate energies. Both DPMJET 2.53 and 3 remain available along with rQMD 2.4 for heavy ion interactions above 100 MeV/A. Technical improvements include the ability to use parentheses in setting up the combinatorial geometry, the introduction of pre-processor directives in the input stream. a new random number generator with full 64 bit randomness, new routines for mathematical special functions (adapted from SLATEC). Finally, work is progressing on the deployment of a user-friendly GUI input interface as well as a CAD-like geometry creation and visualization tool. On the application front, FLUKA has been used to extensively evaluate the potential space radiation effects on astronauts for future deep space missions, the activation dose for beam target areas, dose calculations for radiation therapy as well as being adapted for use in the simulation of events in the ALICE detector at the LHC.

Ferrari, A.↗

Simulation of Liquid Rocket Engine Failure Propagation Using Self-Evolving Scenarios

Traditional probabilistic risk assessment approaches often require failure scenarios to be explicitly defined through event sequences that are then quantified as part of the integrated analysis. This approach becomes difficult when failure propagation paths change as a function of the system operation. Additionally, if the propagation paths represent interactions among even a modest number of components, the scenario count becomes combinatorially intractable. This paper presents an alternate approach for quantifying the probability of failure propagation in such a case. Rather than explicitly defining scenario sequences, simple physical models are created for each of the components. In this way, only the physical states and rules of component interactions must be defined, rather than event sequences for each individual scenario. Initiating failures are introduced into the system, either randomly or as defined by relative likelihood, and the failures cascade through the system via the interaction rules. This process is repeated using Monte Carlo methods and, as a result, the most probable scenarios “self-evolve” in terms of both sequence path and frequency. This approach was applied to failures occurring in the engine compartment of a space launch vehicle with four liquid rocket engines and four high-pressure helium tanks. Each engine was modeled with key components, such as turbomachinery, combustion chamber, propellant lines, and additional support systems. Three test cases were conducted with different high-energy engine failures. End results of interest included an additional engine-out failure and tank burst, which represent the loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) failure environments, respectively. Observations show that almost every scenario outcome is unique and that many scenarios involve complex chain reactions that are difficult to predict. This validates the usefulness of the modeling approach in assessing the overall risks to the crew during a launch vehicle abort.

Rocket Engine↗

Thin-Film Embedded Sensors for Battery Health Monitoring

Hybrid or all-electric aircraft are being developed as the next generation of aircraft to both allow new forms of aviation and decrease environmental impact. Since these types of aircraft are based on high-capacity battery technology, safe operation of these batteries becomes increasingly important. In particular, the potential for battery failure due to uncontrolled chemical reactions resulting in thermal runaway, catastrophic failure, and battery fires must be addressed in order for such battery technology to have the level of safety needed for standard aviation implementation. Efforts to ensure battery safety often involve engineering solutions that seek to contain rather than prevent such events by early detection. Such approaches increase the system weight and decrease the power per unit mass provided by the battery system. Existing methods for measuring battery parameters to determine the battery state-of-health are limited. These methods include electrical measurements of the cell current and/or voltage output as well as temperature measurements taken externally on the cell surface. Such external temperature measurements are limited in their ability to provide early warning of impending battery failure. In response, an effort to develop sensors operating internal to battery for health monitoring has been ongoing in the NASA Sensor-based Prognostics to Avoid Runaway Reactions & Catastrophic Ignition (SPARRCI) project. The basic approach associated with this sensor work is the deposition of thin film sensors on the battery separator located between the anode and cathode of the battery. These thin film sensors are then monitored to determine changes in battery parameters and health. Microfabrication techniques are employed to minimize the overall impact of the sensors on battery operation through the implementation of sensors with minimal size, weight, and power consumption. The thickness of the films, which are fabricated through physical vapor deposition (sputtering), are on the order of thousands of angstroms and can have minimal surface area. Thin film sensors for system health management have been implemented for a many decades on complex components for aerospace applications. However, the application of thin films of this type on a battery separator for internal battery monitoring applications has not previously been demonstrated to our knowledge. This paper describes the development of sensors for the internal battery monitoring through the use of thin film sensor technology. Thin metal films were successfully deposited on a battery separator polymer material with good adherence and electrical continuity. Multiple types of sensors have been deposited, as well as lead connections from the sensor to the edge of the separator material. The ability of these thin film sensors immersed in electrolyte to perform multiple types of battery parameter measurements has been demonstrated. For example, a multiparameter sensor system measured multiple properties simultaneously inside of a pouch cell over a wide temperature range. Further, real time measurement of interior temperature changes in a battery pouch cell with an integrated interior temperature sensor was demonstrated. These changes include detecting a fault in the battery (shorting) in situ with rapid response time (less than a minute) corresponding to a more limited response by a temperature sensor mounted externally. Other aspects of monitoring battery health were also explored, such as real-time measurement of simulated dendrite growth/metal deposition by sensor on separator material demonstrated. Future efforts will include improvements in the durability of the sensor structure to allow introduction of the approach into standard battery fabrication techniques. Overall, this work is a step forward in providing a method to prevent catastrophic battery failures and provide a foundation for safer, lighter, and higher energy batteries for the electric aircraft industry.

thin film battery health↗

Multiwavelength Light Curves of Two Remarkable Sagittarius A* Flares

Sgr A* , the supermassive black hole (SMBH) at the center of our Milky Way Galaxy, is known to be a variable source of X-ray, near-infrared (NIR), and submillimeter radiation and therefore a prime candidate to study the electromagnetic radiation generated by mass accretion flow onto a black hole and/or a related jet. Disentangling the power source and emission mechanisms of this variability is a central challenge to our understanding of accretion flows around SMBHs. Simultaneous multiwavelength observations of the flux variations and their time correlations can play an important role in obtaining a better understanding of possible emission mechanisms and their origin. This paper presents observations of two flares that both apparently violate the previously established patterns in the relative timing of submillimeter/NIR/X-ray flares from Sgr A* . One of these events provides the first evidence of coeval structure between NIR and submillimeter flux increases, while the second event is the first example of the sequence of submillimeter/X-ray/NIR flux increases all occurring within ∼1 hr. Each of these two events appears to upend assumptions that have been the basis of some analytic models of flaring in Sgr A* . However, it cannot be ruled out that these events, even though unusual, were just coincidental. These observations demonstrate that we do not fully understand the origin of the multiwavelength variability of Sgr A* and show that there is a continued and important need for long-term, coordinated, and precise multiwavelength observations of Sgr A* to characterize the full range of variability behavior

accretion↗

Laminar-Turbulent Transition Upstream of the Entropy-Layer Swallowing Location in Hypersonic Boundary Layers

Numerical and experimental studies have demonstrated that modal growth of planar Mack modes is responsible for laminar-turbulent transition on sharp cones at hypersonic speeds. However, the physical mechanisms that lead to transition onset upstream of the entropy-layer swallowing location over sufficiently blunt geometries are not well understood as yet. Modal amplification is too weak or nonexistent to initiate transition at moderate-to-large bluntness values. Nonmodal analysis shows that, with increasing nose bluntness, both planar and oblique traveling disturbances that peak within the entropy layer experience appreciable energy amplification. However, because of the relatively weak signature of the nonmodal traveling disturbances within the boundary-layer region, the route to transition onset subsequent to the nonmodal growth remains unclear. Thus, nonlinear parabolized stability equations (NPSE) and direct numerical simulations (DNS) have been used to investigate the potential transition mechanisms over a 7-degree blunt cone that was tested in the AFRL Mach-6 high-Reynoldsnumber facility. Computations are performed to separately follow the nonlinear development of two classes of inflow disturbances, namely, a pair of oblique traveling waves with equal but opposite angles with respect to the mean flow direction and a planar traveling wave. Results in both cases show an excellent agreement between the NPSE and DNS predictions, establishing that the NPSE is an accurate and efficient technique for predicting the nonlinear development for these particular nonmodal traveling disturbances. Computations reveal that the oblique mode interactions lead to the generation of stationary streaks inside the boundary layer that, in turn, facilitate the growth of a subharmonic sinuous disturbance. For relatively modest amplitudes of the inflow disturbance, the oblique-mode breakdown can lead to transition at the measured location of transition onset during the experiment. On the other hand, the nonlinear development of a planar traveling wave leads to the formation of inclined structures just above the boundary-layer edge and these structures are strongly reminiscent of the transitional events observed during blunt cone experiments by using schlieren flow visualizations.

Entropy↗

Nozomi Cis-Lunar Phase Orbit Determination

Japan's Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) launched Nozomi, its first mission to the planet Mars using the newly developed M-V launch vehicle on July 3, 1998. Scientific objectives of the mission are to study the structure and dynamics of the Martian upper atmosphere and its interaction with the solar wind. Nozomi is a cooperative mission between ISAS and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The NASA contribution includes navigation and tracking services provided by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The spacecraft also serves as an engineering demonstration of basic technology for planetary exploration. One of the new technologies was a unique trajectory, developed by ISAS, which used solar gravitational perturbations at the weak stability boundary as an aid to achieve an Earth-Mars transfer orbit. This trajectory saves approximately 120 m/s of Delta V compared to direct hyperbolic insertion and is considered an enabling technology for the mission. Nozomi was the first spacecraft to employ this trajectory and provided on-orbit validation of the technique. The trajectory was achieved by initially placing the spacecraft in a highly elliptical cis-lunar phasing orbit. Six maneuvers were performed during this period to correct injection errors and target an outbound lunar swingby in September 1998. The gravity assist from the lunar swingby raised apogee to the vicinity of the weak stability boundary. After three more targeting maneuvers, Nozomi performed an inbound lunar swingby followed immediately by a powered Earth swingby in late December 1998. A 420 m/s Trans Mars Insertion (TMI) burn at the final Earth periapsis was intended to place the spacecraft on a heliocentric trajectory leading to Mars orbit insertion in October 1999. Orbit determination for Nozomi is performed in parallel by both ISAS and the Multi-Mission Navigation (MMNAV) group at JPL. This was an advantage for the mission because each group would generate solutions based on data collected from their respective tracking networks. Spacecraft events, such as sequence uplinks and maneuvers, were generally scheduled during passes at the Usuda tracking station in Japan. As a result, maneuver design and reconstruction was derived from MMNAV solutions based on JPL tracking data obtained immediately prior to or following maneuvers. Data was also exchanged between ISAS and MMNAV so orbit determination could be performed on joint data sets in support of critical targeting late in the cis-lunar phase. In this paper, information regarding the MMNAV orbit determination effort for the first six months of the mission is presented. The spacecraft trajectory is characterized first, followed by a discussion of the orbit determination estimation procedure and models. Results from selected orbit solutions are presented and compared against reconstructed trajectories. One area of emphasis in this paper is orbit determination in the vicinity of the weak stability boundary. Precise navigation was necessary to target the second lunar swingby and the powered Earth swingby. Delivery accuracy of 150 m was required for these critical encounters, but a number of factors contributed to the general degradation of orbit determination accuracy. This included the fact that the spacecraft was at apogee, at a range of 1.7 million km and moving at less than I km/sec perpendicular to the line of sight. Nozomi was also close to zero degrees declination where there are known limitations on orbit determination performance. Finally, S-band tracking data was acquired through the Nozomi backup low gain antenna. This antenna is offset from the axis of this spin stabilized spacecraft and superimposed large signatures in the Doppler and range data. These difficulties were overcome by combining long data arcs, spanning several maneuvers, with a high fidelity solar pressure model. The model included a physically accurate representation of the spacecraft structure and a high time resolution orientation model. Observation modeling included the removal of the spin induced Doppler bias, spin signature and per pass correction of range calibration errors applied for data leading up to critical events. As a result, all orbit determination goals were met. A second area of emphasis in this paper is the JPL tracking and orbit determination effort in support of the TMI maneuver. TMI occurred out of contact with ground stations and the JPL Goldstone tracking complex had the first pass following the bum. As a result, MMNAV had the responsibility to make a rapid assessment of the maneuver performance. MMNAV made the determination that a 100 m/s under bum had occurred and promptly informed ISAS via voice lines. ISAS immediately began preparations for a correction maneuver (TMIc), which had to be performed during the next Usuda pass. The near real time assessment by MMNAV provided accurate antenna frequency and pointing updates for the spacecraft acquisition at Usuda and the close coordination between the two agencies enabled the design and successful execution of the TMc maneuver. Propellant consumption during the correction burn dictated that the mission be redesigned. ISAS developed a new plan which adds 3 full solar orbits, two Earth swingbys and one lunar swingby with arrival at Mars in January 2004. The final Mars orbit will still enable the mission to achieve all of its science objectives.

Ryne, Mark↗

Software Architecture to Support the Evolution of the ISRU RESOLVE Engineering Breadboard Unit 2 (EBU2)

The In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Regolith & Environmental Science and Oxygen & Lunar Volatiles Extraction (RESOLVE) software provides operation of the physical plant from a remote location with a high-level interface that can access and control the data from external software applications of other subsystems. This software allows autonomous control over the entire system with manual computer control of individual system/process components. It gives non-programmer operators the capability to easily modify the high-level autonomous sequencing while the software is in operation, as well as the ability to modify the low-level, file-based sequences prior to the system operation. Local automated control in a distributed system is also enabled where component control is maintained during the loss of network connectivity with the remote workstation. This innovation also minimizes network traffic. The software architecture commands and controls the latest generation of RESOLVE processes used to obtain, process, and quantify lunar regolith. The system is grouped into six sub-processes: Drill, Crush, Reactor, Lunar Water Resource Demonstration (LWRD), Regolith Volatiles Characterization (RVC) (see example), and Regolith Oxygen Extraction (ROE). Some processes are independent, some are dependent on other processes, and some are independent but run concurrently with other processes. The first goal is to analyze the volatiles emanating from lunar regolith, such as water, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, ammonia, hydrogen, and others. This is done by heating the soil and analyzing and capturing the volatilized product. The second goal is to produce water by reducing the soil at high temperatures with hydrogen. This is done by raising the reactor temperature in the range of 800 to 900 C, causing the reaction to progress by adding hydrogen, and then capturing the water product in a desiccant bed. The software needs to run the entire unit and all sub-processes; however, throughout testing, many variables and parameters need to be changed as more is learned about the system operation. The Master Events Controller (MEC) is run on a standard laptop PC using Windows XP. This PC runs in parallel to another laptop that monitors the GC, and a third PC that monitors the drilling/ crushing operation. These three PCs interface to the process through a CompactRIO, OPC Servers, and modems.

Moss, Thomas↗

Quantitation of Radiation Induced Deletion and Recombination Events Associated with Repeated DNA Sequences

Manned exploration of space exposes the explorers to a complex and novel radiation environment. The galactic cosmic ray and trapped belt radiation (predominantly proton) components of this environment are relatively constant, and the variations with the solar cycle are well understood and predictable. The level of radiation encountered in low earth orbits is determined by several factors, including altitude, inclination of orbit with respect to the equator, and spacecraft shielding. At higher altitudes, and on a Mars mission, the level of radiation exposure will increase significantly. A significant fraction of the dose may be delivered by solar particle events which vary dramatically in dose rate and incident particle spectrum. High-LET radiation is of particular concern. High-LET radiation, a component of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), is comprised of a variety of charged particles of various energies (10 MeV/n to 10 GeV/n), including about 87% photons, 12% helium ions, and heavy ions (including iron). These high energy particles can cause significant damage to target cells. The different particle types and energies result in different patterns of energy deposition at the molecular and cellular level in a primary target cell. They can also cause significant damage to other, nearby cells as a result of secondary particles. Protons, for instance produce secondaries that include photons, neutrons, pions, heavy particles, as well as gamma rays. Heavy ions deposit energy in a "track" in which the magnitude of the damage varies as the particle loses energy. Heavy ions produce secondary delta rays, or electrons. The distribution of damage through tissue is described by a Bragg curve which will be characteristic for different energies. Needless to say there are differences in the RBE of protons and a particles. High-LET heavy ions are particularly damaging to cells as they do continual damage throughout their track. Differences in these energy deposition patterns can significantly influence the nature of DNA damage and the ability of cellular systems to repair such damage. It has been suspected that these differences also affect the spatial distribution of damage within the DNA of the interphase cell nucleus and produce corresponding differences in endpoints related to health effects. The interaction of a single high-LET particle with chromatin has been suggested to cause multiple double strand breaks within a relatively short distance. In part this is due to the organization of DNA into chromatin fibers in which distant regions of the DNA helix can be physically juxtaposed by the various levels of coiling of the DNA. This prediction was confirmed by the detection of the generation of double strand DNA fragments of 100-2000 bp following exposure to high-LET ions (including iron).

Sinden, Richard R.↗

Utilization of Machine Learning Techniques for Managing the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite Constellation

National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) operates a constellation of ten geosynchronous Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS). The TDRS constellation consists of multiple geosynchronous communication relay satellites located around the equator so they can provide continual coverage of any mission in low earth orbit. The TDRS are located primarily in three oceanic regions around the earth. NASA’s White Sands Complex provides the ground communication support for TDRS located over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Another TDRS ground station in Guam supports the TDRS over the Indian Ocean. With these satellites the TDRS network can provide continuous coverage of satellites in low-earth orbit. The NASA Space Network (SN) project office at GSFC manages the constellation of spacecraft. Major customers of the TDRS constellation include, but are not limited to, the International Space Station and the Hubble Space Telescope. The TDRS constellation has three generations of satellites and has been active for over 30 years providing reliable communication links between customer satellites and corresponding ground stations. However, one of the major concerns for TDRS, and in any space mission, is to ensure the health and safety of the spacecraft. Generally, engineers use telemetry data to monitor and analyze the performance and state of health of the spacecraft. Telemetry data contains hundreds of parameters that monitor each important component in the spacecraft, which can be utilized to recognize and characterize the behavior of the spacecraft. Each parameter contains considerable information to represent time-dependent properties of each spacecraft subsystem and component. During the entire life of a TDRS spacecraft, thousands of gigabytes of telemetry data are transmitted in real-time from the spacecraft to the ground station at the White Sands Complex in Las Cruces, New Mexico, and recorded as historical data sets for engineers to process and analyze the events that occurred on-orbit. These parameters contain the function of multiple spacecraft subsystems, such as the attitude control system (ACS), Thermal, Electrical Power Subsystem (EPS), etc. . The first and second generations have exceeded their required lifetime and NASA is keen to manage these spacecrafts carefully in order to maximize the remaining life using the spacecraft telemetry. The challenge is to know when the risk of losing a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit exceeds the benefit of continued operations for customer support. In the TDRS fleet, the EPS is the most critical subsystem related to spacecraft operations. Failure of the EPS would strand a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit. Since EPS provides power to the spacecraft, component failures ultimately lead to the inability to support the spacecraft loads and the communications payload. For instance, TDRS-8 has several anomalies in EPS including the Bus Voltage Limiter (BVL) shunt current, solar array loss of circuits, and failed battery cells. Any of these anomalies can cause critical issues to the spacecraft. Therefore, developing a system to analyze and perform early detection of a potential anomaly is an important issue in telemetry data analysis. In recent years, Telemetry Mining (TM) has been proposed to process telemetry data by using Data Mining (DM) techniques such as classification, clustering, regression and anomaly detection. Anomaly detection, also known as outlier detection, has been widely used in many data mining areas such as remote sensing, medical data processing and digital image processing. The goal of anomaly detection is to detect abnormal data, which contains a relatively low probability of occurrence among the entire data set. Early detection of anomalies is one of the most significant issues in managing the spacecraft configuration. If anomalies can be detected early enough, then the redundant resources can be used to extend the life of the operational spacecraft. We present an unsupervised anomaly detection method to process the EPS data extracted from TDRS-8. This is different from traditional analytical methods, which use telemetry data to illustrate behavior and physical meaning of each spacecraft component. TM connects multiple parameters as a vector and then conducts data analysis on this high dimension telemetry vector. This method is looking at the properties of a high dimensional vector that is able to consider the relationship between different parameters in the anomaly detection problem. This kind of method performs much better than the traditional limit checking method. In addition, we propose a new approach of real-time anomaly detection to process telemetry data in real-time, which can then be applied to spacecraft monitoring with high reliability, low cost and high accuracy.

Machine Learning (ML)↗

GPM Mission Overview and U.S. Science Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational sensors to provide "next-generation" precipitation products [1-2]. Water is fundamental to life on Earth. Knowing where and how much rain and snow falls globally is vital to understanding how weather and climate impact both our environment and Earth's water and energy cycles, including effects on agriculture, fresh water availability, and responses to natural disasters. Since rainfall and snowfall vary greatly from place to place and over time, satellites can provide more uniform observations of rain and snow around the globe than ground instruments, especially in areas where surface measurements are difficult. Relative to current global rainfall products, GPM data products will be characterized by: (l) more accurate instantaneous precipitation measurements (especially for light rain and cold-season solid precipitation), (2) more frequent sampling by an expanded constellation of domestic and international microwave radiometers including operational humidity sounders, (3) intercalibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a unified framework, and (4) physical-based precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori cloud/hydrometeor database derived from GPM Core sensor measurements. The cornerstone of the GPM mission is the deployment of a Core Observatory in a unique 65 non-Sun-synchronous orbit to serve as a physics observatory and a reference standard to unify precipitation measurements by a constellation of dedicated and operational passive microwave sensors. The design of the GPM Core Observatory is an advancement of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s highly successful rain-sensing package. The Core Observatory will carry a Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a multichannel (l0-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). Since light rain and falling snow account for a significant fraction of precipitation occurrence in middle and high latitudes, the GPM instruments extend the capabilities of the TRMM sensors to detect falling snow, measure light rain, and provide, for the first time, quantitative estimates of microphysical properties of precipitation particles. The combined use of DPR and GMI measurements will place greater constraints on possible solutions to radiometer retrievals to improve the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. The GMI uses 13 different microwave channels to observe energy from the different types of precipitation through clouds for estimating everything from heavy to light rain and for detecting falling snow. As the satellite passes over Earth, the GMI constantly scans a region 885 kilometers across. The Ball Aerospace and Technology Corporation built the GMI under contract with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The DPR provides three-dimensional information about precipitation particles derived from reflected energy by these particles at different heights within the cloud system. The two frequencies of the DPR also allow the radar to infer the sizes of precipitation particles and offer insights into a storm's physical characteristics. The Ka-band frequen~y scans across a region of 125 kilometers and is nested within the wider scan of the Ku-band frequency of 245 kilometers. The Japan Aerospace and Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Japan's National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) built the DPR. The Core Observatory satellite will fly at an altitude of 253 miles (407 kilometers) in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit that covers the Earth from 65 S to 65 N - from about the Antarctic Circle to the Arctic Circle. The GPM Core Observatory is being developed and tested at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Once complete, a Japanese H-lIA rocket will carry thPM Core Observatory into orbit from Tanegashima Island, Japan in 2014. The GPM constellation is envisioned to comprise 8 or more microwave sensors provided by partners, including both conical imagers and cross-track sounders. GPM is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Additional partnerships are under development to include microwave radiometers on the French-Indian Megha-Tropiques satellite and U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, as well as humidity sounders or precipitation sensors on operational satellites such as the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP), NOAA-NASA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites, European MetOp satellites, and DMSP follow-on sensors. In addition, data from Chinese and Russian microwave radiometers may be available through international cooperation under the auspices of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). GPM's next-generation global precipitation data will lead to scientific advances and societal benefits in the following areas: (1) Improved knowledge of the Earth's water cycle and its link to climate change (2) New insights into precipitation microphysics, storm structures and large-scale atmospheric processes (3) Better understanding of climate sensitivity and feedback processes (4) Extended capabilities in monitoring and predicting hurricanes and other extreme weather events (5) Improved forecasting capabilities for natural hazards, including floods, droughts and landslides. (6) Enhanced numerical prediction skills for weather and climate (7) Better agricultural crop forecasting and monitoring of freshwater resources. An overview of the GPM mission concept and science activities in the United States, together with an update on international collaborations in radiometer intercalibration and ground validation, will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.

kidney stones↗

Validation of Atmosphere/Ionosphere Signals Associated with Major Earthquakes by Multi-Instrument Space-Borne and Ground Observations

The latest catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 2011) has renewed interest in the important question of the existence of pre-earthquake anomalous signals related to strong earthquakes. Recent studies have shown that there were precursory atmospheric/ionospheric signals observed in space associated with major earthquakes. The critical question, still widely debated in the scientific community, is whether such ionospheric/atmospheric signals systematically precede large earthquakes. To address this problem we have started to investigate anomalous ionospheric / atmospheric signals occurring prior to large earthquakes. We are studying the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic environment by developing a multisensor model for monitoring the signals related to active tectonic faulting and earthquake processes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (thermal infrared radiation, electron concentration in the ionosphere, lineament analysis, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. A physical link between these parameters and earthquake processes has been provided by the recent version of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. Our experimental measurements have supported the new theoretical estimates of LAIC hypothesis for an increase in the surface latent heat flux, integrated variability of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC) registered over the epicenters. Some of the major earthquakes are accompanied by an intensification of gas migration to the surface, thermodynamic and hydrodynamic processes of transformation of latent heat into thermal energy and with vertical transport of charged aerosols in the lower atmosphere. These processes lead to the generation of external electric currents in specific regions of the atmosphere and the modifications, by dc electric fields, in the ionosphere-atmosphere electric circuit. We retrospectively analyzed temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters (gas/radon counting rate, lineaments change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) characterizing the state of the lithosphere/atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes. Validation processes consist in two phases: A. Case studies for seven recent major earthquakes: Japan (M9.0, 2011), China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and, Chile (M8.8, 2010) and B. A continuous retrospective analysis was preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009. Satellite, ground surface, and troposphere data were obtained from Terra/ASTER, Aqua/AIRS, POES and ionospheric variations from DEMETER and COSMIC-I data. Radon and GPS/TEC were obtaining from monitoring sites in Taiwan, Japan and Italy and from global ionosphere maps (GIM) respectively. Our analysis of ground and satellite data during the occurrence of 7 global earthquakes has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Our results for Tohoku M9.0 earthquake show that on March 7th, 2011 (4 days before the main shock and 1 day before the M7.2 foreshock of March 8, 2011) a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed by the satellite data and an anomaly was developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. Similar approach for analyzing atmospheric and ionospheric parameters has been applied for China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and Chile (M8.8, 2010) eahquakes. Results have revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. The second phase (B) of this validation included 102 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 10% and has been calculated for the same month of the earthquake occurrence for the entire period of analysis (2003-2009). The commonalities for detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies are: i.) Regularly appearance over regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries); ii.) Anomaly existence over land and sea; and iii) association with M>5.9 earthquakes not deeper than 100km. Due to their long duration over the same region these anomalies are not consistent with a meteorological origin. Our initial results from the ISTF validation of multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area, one to seven (average) days prior to the largest earthquakes, and suggest that it could be explained by a coupling process between the observed physical parameters and the pre-earthquake preparation processes.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗

The New 20-Year Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Merged Satellite and Rainguage Monthly Analysis

A new 20-year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis has been completed as part of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). This Version 2 of the community generated data set is a result of combining the procedures and data sets as described. The global, monthly, 2.5x 2.5 degree latitude-longitude product utilizes precipitation estimates from low-orbit microwave sensors (SSM/1) and geosynchronous IR sensors and raingauge information over land. The low-orbit microwave estimates are used to adjust or correct the geosynchronous IR estimates, thereby maximizing the utility of the more physically-based microwave estimates and the finer time sampling of the geosynchronous observations. Information from raingauges is blended into the analyses over land. In the 1986-present period TOVS-based precipitation estimates are adjusted to GPCP fields and used in polar regions to produce globally-complete results. The extension back to 1979 utilizes the procedures of Xie and Arkin and their OLR Precipitation Index (OPI). The 20-year climatology of the Version 2 GPCP analysis indicates the expected features of a very strong Pacific Ocean ITCZ and SPCZ with maximum 20-year means approaching 10 mm/day. A similar strength maximum over land is evident over Borneo. Weaker maxima in the tropics occur in the Atlantic ITCZ and over South America and Africa. In mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere the Western Pacific and Western Atlantic maxima have values of approximately 7 mm/day, while in the Southern Hemisphere the mid-latitude maxima are located southeast of Africa, in mid-Pacific as an extension of the SPCZ and southeast of South America. In terms of global totals the GPCP analysis shows 2.7 mm/day (3.0 mm/day over ocean; 2.1 mm/day over land), similar to the Jaeger climatology, but not other climatologies. Zonal averages peak at 6 mm/day at 7*N with mid-latitude peaks of about 3 mm/day at 40-45* latitude. Poleward of 45* the GPCP analysis shows larger zonally-averaged values than most previous satellite-based estimates, although the values are similar to tl,ie Jaeger climatology. Over both ocean areas and at high latitudes the analysis requires additional validation and comparison with special, independent data sets from field experiments and from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) to confirm the absolute magnitude and variations of precipitation seen in the analysis. Interannual and other variations of the global fields will be shown focusing on the recent ('97-'99) ENSO event compared with previous events, including teleconnections at mid and high latitudes. An ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) calculated using the new data set will be described and related to the evolution of the ENSO events during the 20-year period.

Adler, Robert↗

Overview and Initial Results of SAND-E: Semi-Autonomous Navigation for Detrital Environments

Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and automated terrain analysis for science and navigation are new technologies for planetary exploration. The Mars Helicopter will fly with the Mars2020 rover, the Dragonfly quadcopter will explore Titan, and Soil Properties and Object Classification (SPOC) software will be used for path planning and navigation on the Mars2020 rover. Using an Argo J5 rover instrumented with stereo cameras and Autonomous Soil Assessment System (ASAS) software, and an off the shelf quadcopter, SAND-E tested the use of automated terrain analysis and UAS data for science operations in a Mars-analog environment in Iceland during July of 2019. Scientifically, we sought to determine changes in the physical and chemical properties of sediments along a glacial-fluvial-aeolian transport pathway. Operationally, we tested rover mission-like scenarios that included UAS images and classified terrain images. Here, we present the initial results for both the operations and science elements of the study. Site Selection: A goal of SAND-E is examine sorting and alteration of sediments in fluvial and aeolian environments in both mineral-dominated and glass-dominated basaltic settings. During the first year of the project we focused on a mineral-dominated environment. Selection of the location was based on prior publications that indicated our selected region had a greater abundance of crystalline sediments than other areas fluvial-aeolian settings in Iceland. Other criteria included the presence of both fluvial and aeolian landforms along a transport pathway such that the sediments in transport could be linked to their source rocks. We chose the Skjaldbreidauhraun glacial outwash plain, which sits at the base of Thórisjökull glacier. The site is 30 km north of Thingvellir National Park and ~2 hours from Reykjavik. The outwash plain is fed by two small catchments that drain from the base of the glacier and cut through hyaloclastite and shield volcano bedrock. The drainage progresses from steep alluvial fans near the glacier into a low-sloping fluvial braidplain that becomes confined by the Skjaldbreidur shield volcano and creates a shallow canyon cut into lava bedrock. The fluvial system was a typical braided alluvial environment composed pebble- and cobble-bedded longitudinal bars and sandy channel beds. The river remained active and fluctuated in response to diurnal runoff cycles near the glacier before disappearing into the sandy substrate downstream. The high concentration of suspended sediment in the river was evident by the cloudy water and the silt and clay-sized sediments that draped the channel beds after abandonment and created playas in the lowest sloping areas of the catchment. The entire fluvial system was affected by the winds generated by frontal systems and katabatic flows descending the glacier. This resulted in the formation of aeolian lag deposits and a wind-deflation plain where the fluvial system was not active. Wind ripples and drifts formed in abandoned fluvial channels from aeolian reworking of the sand-sized fluvial sediments. The silt- and clay-sized sediments found in fluvial channels, bar tops, and playas generated dust plumes during high wind events. Our operation sought to capture the variability in this system by sampling from the range of fluvial and aeolian features 6.3 km (proximal), 11.3 km (medial), and 14.4 km (distal) along the river from its origin at the base of glacier.

Ewing, R. C.↗

NASA GES DISC On-line Visualization and Analysis System for Gridded Remote Sensing Data

The ability to use data stored in the current NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) archives for studying regional or global phenomena is highly dependent on having a detailed understanding of the data's internal structure and physical implementation. Gaining this understanding and applying it to data reduction is a time-consuming task that must be undertaken before the core investigation can begin. This is an especially difficult challenge when science objectives require users to deal with large multi-sensor data sets that are usually of different formats, structures, and resolutions. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has taken a major step towards meeting this challenge by developing an infrastructure with a Web interface that allows users to perform interactive analysis online without downloading any data, the GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure or "Giovanni." Giovanni provides interactive, online, analysis tools for data users to facilitate their research. There have been several instances of this interface created to serve TRMM users, Aerosol scientists, Ocean Color and Agriculture applications users. The first generation of these tools support gridded data only. The user selects geophysical parameters, area of interest, time period; and the system generates an output on screen in a matter of seconds. The currently available output options are: Area plot averaged or accumulated over any available data period for any rectangular area; Time plot time series averaged over any rectangular area; Hovmoller plots image view of any longitude-time and latitude-time cross sections; ASCII output for all plot types; Image animation for area plot. Another analysis suite deals with parameter intercomparison: scatter plots, temporal correlation maps, GIs-compatible outputs, etc. This allow user to focus on data content (i.e. science parameters) and eliminate the need for expensive learning, development and processing tasks that are redundantly incurred by an archive's user community. The current implementation utilizes the GrADS-DODS Server (GDS), and provides subsetting and analysis services across the Internet for any GrADS-readable dataset. The subsetting capability allows users to retrieve a specified temporal and/or spatial subdomain from a large dataset, eliminating the need to download everything simply to access a small relevant portion of a dataset. The analysis capability allows users to retrieve the results of an operation applied to one or more datasets on the server. We use this approach to read pre-processed binary files and/or to read and extract the needed parts directly from HDF or HDF-EOS files. These subsets then serve as inputs into GrADS analysis scripts. It can be used in a wide variety of Earth science applications: climate and weather events study and monitoring; modeling. It can be easily configured for new applications.

Leptoukh, Gregory G.↗

Distributive On-line Processing, Visualization and Analysis System for Gridded Remote Sensing Data

The ability to use data stored in the current Earth Observing System (EOS) archives for studying regional or global phenomena is highly dependent on having a detailed understanding of the data's internal structure and physical implementation. Gaining this understanding and applying it to data reduction is a time- consuming task that must be undertaken before the core investigation can begin. This is an especially difficult challenge when science objectives require users to deal with large multi-sensor data sets that are usually of different formats, structures, and resolutions, for example, when preparing data for input into modeling systems. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has taken a major step towards meeting this challenge by developing an infrastructure with a Web interface that allows users to perform interactive analysis online without downloading any data, the GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure or "Giovanni." Giovanni provides interactive, online, analysis tools for data users to facilitate their research. There have been several instances of this interface created to serve TRMM users, Aerosol scientists, Ocean Color and Agriculture applications users. The first generation of these tools support gridded data only. The user selects geophysical parameters, area of interest, time period; and the system generates an output on screen in a matter of seconds. The currently available output options are: Area plot averaged or accumulated over any available data period for any rectangular area; Time plot time series averaged over any rectangular area; Time plots image view of any longitude-time and latitude-time cross sections; ASCII output for all plot types; Image animation for area plot. In the future, we will add correlation plots, GIS-compatible outputs, etc. This allow user to focus on data content (i.e. science parameters) and eliminate the need for expensive learning, development and processing tasks that are redundantly incurred by an archive's user community. The current implementation utilizes the GrADS-DODS Server (GDS), a stable, secure data server that provides subsetting and analysis services across the Internet for any GrADS-readable dataset. The subsetting capability allows users to retrieve a specified temporal and/or spatial subdomain from a large dataset, eliminating the need to download everything simply to access a small relevant portion of a dataset. The analysis capability allows users to retrieve the results of an operation applied to one or more datasets on the server. In our case, we use this approach to read pre-processed binary files and/or to read and extract the needed parts from HDF or HDF-EOS files. These subsets then serve as inputs into GrADS processing and analysis scripts. It can be used in a wide variety of Earth science applications: climate and weather events study and monitoring; modeling. It can be easily configured for new applications.

Leptoukh, G.↗

Comparative Magma Oceanography

The question of whether the Earth ever passed through a magma ocean stage is of considerable interest. Geochemical evidence strongly suggests that the Moon had a magma ocean and the evidence is mounting that the same was true for Mars. Analyses of martian (SNC) meteorites have yielded insights into the differentiation history of Mars, and consequently, it is interesting to compare that planet to the Earth. Three primary features of Mars contrast strongly to those of the Earth: (i) the extremely ancient ages of the martian core, mantle, and crust (about 4.55 b.y.); (ii) the highly depleted nature of the martian mantle; and (iii) the extreme ranges of Nd isotopic compositions that arise within the crust and depleted mantle. The easiest way to explain the ages and diverse isotopic compositions of martian basalts is to postulate that Mars had an early magma ocean. Cumulates of this magma ocean were later remelted to form the SNC meteorite suite and some of these melts assimilated crustal materials enriched in incompatible elements. The REE pattern of the crust assimilated by these SNC magmas was LREE enriched. If this pattern is typical of the crust as a whole, the martian crust is probably similar in composition to melts generated by small degrees of partial melting (about 5%) of a primitive source. Higher degrees of partial melting would cause the crustal LREE pattern to be essentially flat. In the context of a magma ocean model, where large degrees of partial melting presumably prevailed, the crust would have to be dominated by late-stage, LREE-enriched residual liquids. Regardless of the exact physical setting, Nd and W isotopic evidence indicates that martian geochemical reservoirs must have formed early and that they have not been efficiently remixed since. The important point is that in both the Moon and Mars we see evidence of a magma ocean phase and that we recognize it as such. Several lines of theoretical inference point to an early Earth that was also hot and, perhaps, mostly molten. The Giant Impact hypothesis for the origin of the Moon offers a tremendous input of thermal energy and the same could be true for core formation. And current solar system models favor the formation of a limited number of large (about 1000 km) planetesimals that, upon accreting to Earth, would cause great heating, being lesser versions of the Giant Impact. Several lines of geochemical evidence do not favor this hot early Earth scenario. (i) Terrestrial man-tle xenoliths are sometimes nearly chondritic in their major element compositions, suggesting that these rocks have never been much molten. Large degrees of partial melting probably promote differentiation rather than homogenization. (ii) Unlike the case of Mars, the continental crust probably did not form as a highly fractionated residual liquid from a magma ocean (about 99% crystallization), but, rather, formed in multiple steps. [The simplest model for the formation of continental crust is complicated: (a) about 10% melting of a primitive mantle, making basalt; (b) hydrothermal alteration of that basalt, converting it to greenstone; and (c) 10% partial melting of that greenstone, producing tonalite.] This model is reinforced by the recent observation from old (about 4.1 b.y.) zircons that the early crust formed from an undepleted mantle having a chondritic Lu/Hf ratio. (iii) If the mantle were once differentiated by a magma ocean, the mantle xenolith suite requires that it subsequently be homogenized. The Os isotopic compositions of fertile spinel lherzolites place constraints on the timing of that homogenization. The Os isotopic composition of spinel lherzolites approaches that of chondrites and correlates with elements such as Lu and Al. As Lu and Al concentrations approach those of the primitive mantle, Os isotopic compositions approach chondritic. The Re and Os in these xenoliths were probably added as a late veneer. Thus, the mantle that received the late veneer must have been nearly chondritic in terms of its major elements (excluding Fe). If the mantle that the veneer was mixed into was not al-ready homogenized, then Os isotopes should not correlate with incompatible elements such as Al. Consequently, either early differentiation of the mantle did not occur or the homogenization of this differentiation must have occurred before the late veneer was added. The timing of the late veneer is itself uncertain but presumably postdated core formation at about 4.45 b.y. and did not postdate the 3.8-3.9 b.y. late bombardment of the Moon. This timing based on siderophile elements is consistent with the Hf isotopic evidence cited above. If the Earth, Moon and Mars had magma oceans, the Earth subsequently rehomogenized whereas the Moon and Mars did not. The simplest solution to this observation is that homogenization of igneous differentiates was never necessary on Earth, either because the hypothetical magma ocean never occurred or because this event did not produce mantle differentiation.

Jones, J. H.↗