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Workforce planning: a review of methodologies

Workforce planning deals with determining the number of employees and associated skills necessary to meet the future operational needs of an organization. A workforce system consists of six elements: recruitment, attrition, promotion, training, retention, and scheduling. Historically, several workforce modeling and analysis methodologies have been developed to capture these elements. This paper reviews the results of workforce and manpower models published within peer-reviewed literature between 1959 and 2021 to provide an in-depth analysis of current models. The focus of this review is on analytical, simulation, and empirical models found in literature that were collected based on a citation requirement and keyword search criteria. Results demonstrate the trends in workforce modeling research and discuss the common uses of each model type and the advantages/disadvantages related to each model. Based on the common attributes of workforce systems, the discussion focuses on the most frequently used model type for each element and the best use for each model. Lastly, recommendations are made for the development of workforce models that allow the most comprehensive view of the workforce systems of the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Expedited Walkdowns and Preparation of Cost Estimates for Decontamination and Demolition of Excess Facilities - 20335

Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC (LLNS) is the prime contractor responsible for managing and operating Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The mission of the LLNL is to strengthen security of the United States through development and application of world-class science and technology to enhance the nation's defense, reduce the global threat from terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, and respond with vision, quality, integrity, and technical excellence to scientific issues of national importance. To accomplish its mission, LLNL must plan and manage its campus space and facilities to optimize use of its relatively small one-square-mile footprint. LLNL currently has numerous excess facilities that require decontamination and demolition (D and D). The LLNL Legacy Facility Program is responsible for stewardship and risk reduction programs to effectively manage these excess assets at LLNL. The Legacy Facility Program identified 10 excess facilities at LLNL that were candidates for demolition based on risks from further degradation of the facilities, potential exposure to hazardous materials, or need for removal to make way for new program facilities. The buildings range from a structure built in 1943 to serve as a US Navy drill hall during World War II, to a facility that provided neutrons to study material properties for the fusion energy program. The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) appropriated FY19 funding for the development of Class 3 estimates for these 10 excess facilities that would be used to develop a Program Management Plan for funding consideration. Class 3 estimates are not conceptual, nor overly detailed, but adequate to be used for budget and appropriation purposes. Using existing strategic sourcing agreements, LLNL was able to organize a team of senior subject matter experts (SMEs) with diverse technical backgrounds across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex to complete extensive process knowledge (PK) reviews and walk-downs of each excess facility and to deliver accurate and complete estimates under an expedited schedule (i.e., within eight weeks). To facilitate the expedited schedule, LLNL was fully prepared for the arrival of the JGMS team, which consisted of the following companies: J.G. Management Systems, Inc. (JGMS); Strata-G, LLC; and Michael Baker International. LLNL provided background and PK information on the excess facilities, pictures, supporting historical documentation, and radiological survey history as well as escorted access to the facilities. The JGMS team has previous experience supporting Program Management Plans for excess facilities at the Y-12 National Security Complex. The team mobilized to LLNL and performed the facility walk-downs from January 22-25, 2019. Using a methodical evaluation process, expertise, and experience, the team was able to deliver walk-down draft reports and estimates to LLNL before their February 8, 2019 deadline. LLNL then in turn reviewed, completed the estimates by adding waste management costs and other LLNL costs, and delivered the estimates to NNSA by February 15, 2019. The completed final reports, including draft D and D estimates, were delivered to LLNL before their March 6, 2019 deadline. The work was successfully completed ahead of the expedited schedule required by LLNL, resulting in a commendation from the client. This paper describes how the partnership and collaboration as a fully integrated team comprised of the prime contractor, LLNS, and the JGMS team successfully met the needs of the US government, resulting in the performance of expedited site walk-downs, the development of summary evaluation reports, and the preparation of draft Class 3 estimates and preliminary schedules for the D and D of 10 excess facilities at LLNL. The efforts of the team will enable the D and D of the first excess facility in the 2020-2021 time frame. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Shared automated vehicle fleet operations for first-mile last-mile transit connections with dynamic pooling

Shared automated vehicles (SAVs) have the potential to promote transit ridership by providing efficient first-mile last-mile (FMLM) connections through reduced operational costs to fleet providers and lower out-of-pocket costs to riders. To help plan for a future of integrated mobility, this paper investigates the impacts of SAVs serving FMLM connections, as a mode that provides flexibility in access/egress decisions and is well coordinated with train station schedules. To achieve this objective, a novel dynamic pooling algorithm was introduced to match SAVs with riders while coordinating the riders' arrival times at the light-rail station to a known train schedule. Microsimulations of SAVs and travelers throughout two central Austin neighborhoods show how larger service areas, higher levels of SAV demand, and longer arrival times between successive trains require larger SAV fleet sizes and higher SAV utilization rates to deliver close traveler wait times. Four-person SAVs appear to perform similar to 6-seat SAVs but will cost less to provide. Using a dynamic pooling algorithm tightly coordinated with train arrivals (every 15 min) delivers 87% of travelers to their stations in time to catch the next train, whereas uncoordinated assignments deliver just 58% of travelers in time.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Transportation and System Analysis Collaborations in Support of a Federal Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program under the Office of Nuclear Energy is planning for the future transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from nuclear power plant and waste custodian sites across the United States. To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the IWM program has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various options for managing SNF and HLW. With these tools, integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). System analyses and assessments typically use these modeling and simulation tools to investigate implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters such as acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, start and stop dates of facilities, etc. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation toolkit that is used for a system-level simulation and analysis focused on SNF management in the United States. NGSAM’s primary purpose is to provide a system analyst with capabilities to model the IWMS and gain insights into SNF and HLW management alternatives including the impact of system choices, associated cost estimates, and development of integrated yet flexible approaches. An analyst using NGSAM can define several factors like the number of storage facilities, capacity at each facility, transportation schedules, shipment rates, and other conditions. IWM is also developing the Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START). START is a web-based geospatial tool developed to provide the visualization and initial evaluation of transportation options associated with future SNF and HLW shipment planning and operations. This includes characterizing safety, economic, and environmental conditions at and in proximity to shipment origins as well as along prospective transportation routes. Information from the START tool can be presented/shared as maps, graphics, geospatial files, and tabular form to enable easy data representation and export functionality. The system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams have been working closely for several years before formalizing this collaboration. START provides the SNF transportation routing information for use in NGSAM. System analysts use the NGSAM tool to generate results (schedule, costs, infrastructure acquisitions, shipment rates, etc.). Subject-matter experts and system analysts work together to inform how NGSAM should model the waste management system. Specifically, this paper discusses the collaborations between the system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams and their accomplishments over the past year. Some examples of these efforts include calibrating and adding data to the START output files to meet NGSAM needs, gaining a better understanding of START data used in NGSAM as well as how updates in START data could result in an improved NGSAM analysis. Detailed examples of various tasks that have been performed by the team will be discussed in the full paper. Continued efforts in this direction are expected in the coming years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Quantitative Metrics for Grid Resilience Evaluation and Optimization

Power system resilience has become a critical topic in recent years because of the increasing trend of extreme events and the growing integration of intermittent renewable energy sources. To enhance grid resilience against high-impact, low-frequency events, two questions should be answered: how to quantify the resilience of a given grid and how to incorporate the quantification into power system planning, operation, and restoration. Here this paper develops a new set of quantitative metrics with clear physical interpretation to comprehensively evaluate power system resilience. Using microgrids as an example, an event-based corrective scheduling (ECS) model and an online model predictive control (OMPC) model are developed to integrate the proposed quantitative resilience metrics into power system optimization models for resilience enhancement. The ECS model employs extreme event data to investigate the optimal restoration solution and to help microgrid operators prepare to respond to similar events. The OMPC model provides online decision-making support for operators to handle ongoing outages in the most resilient fashion. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed quantitative resilience metrics and the resilience enhancement models are demonstrated through simulations and comparative studies on an IEEE test feeder and a real distribution feeder in Southern California.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

HL-LHC Analysis With ROOT: ROOT Project Input to the HL-LHC Computing Review (Stage 2)

ROOT is high energy physics' software for storing and mining data in a statistically sound way, to publish results with scientific graphics. It is evolving since 25 years, now providing the storage format for more than one exabyte of data; virtually all high energy physics experiments use ROOT. With another significant increase in the amount of data to be handled scheduled to arrive in 2027, ROOT is preparing for a massive upgrade of its core ingredients. As part of a review of crucial software for high energy physics, the ROOT team has documented its R&D plans for the coming years.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project: Alaska Longline Fishermen’s Association Alternative Fuels Review

This report provides information about additional options in electrifying the Alaska Longline Fishermen’s Association (ALFA) fishing fleet. Currently, the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project is prioritizing electric hybrid and battery electric options for retrofit of select fishing vessels in the fleet. However, there are other options for reducing carbon emissions among the fleet, namely hydrogen, ammonia, and biofuels. The use of these alternative fuels may be an option for the fleet in the future as ALFA addresses its vulnerabilities. A literature review of available resources on these fuels was conducted to provide information on several topics associated with implementation of these technologies, including current applications, commercially available power modules, necessary components, infrastructure, and safety codes and standards. An additional aspect that this report investigates is general sizing and refueling schedule based on operating records of multiple ships in the fleet.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Zero-Emission Transit Bus Needs Assessment

The transition to zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) in public transit has gained traction due to significant federal investments from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This needs assessment, commissioned by the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation and conducted by researchers at the Idaho National Laboratory, explores the current state of electrification in transit agencies, identifying barriers to implementation, potential funding sources, and operational considerations necessary for a successful transition. The assessment involved qualitative interviews with representatives from 19 transit service providers across diverse geographic regions. Key findings highlight the challenges related to bus facilities and operations, which require careful planning for charging infrastructure and maintenance capabilities to accommodate battery electric buses (BEBs) and hydrogen fuel cell buses (HFCBs). Agencies reported operational hurdles due to the shorter range of BEBs compared to diesel buses, necessitating revised scheduling and routing strategies. Despite these challenges, many agencies expressed optimism about their capacity to adapt. Funding availability emerged as a critical factor influencing the transition to ZEVs. While agencies welcomed increased financial support, particularly from the Low or No Emission Grant Program (Lo-No), concerns about the sustainability of this funding and the ongoing operational costs were prevalent. The need for a comprehensive funding inventory was underscored to ensure transit agencies are aware of all available resources. Technological constraints were significant barriers to ZEV adoption. The limited range of BEBs was frequently cited as a concern, leading to operational challenges and reliability issues. Agencies reported difficulties in sourcing replacement parts, which exacerbated downtime and maintenance challenges. Workforce development and training were identified as pivotal for a successful transition. Many agencies rely heavily on manufacturers for technician training, highlighting the need for scalable training programs that equip staff with the necessary skills to maintain electric powertrains effectively. This assessment offers actionable recommendations for the Joint Office, including enhancing outreach to transit agencies, developing resources for effective utility partnerships, and facilitating comprehensive training programs. Establishing a zero-emission bus evaluation program to track performance metrics such as cost, range, and reliability could provide valuable insights for transit agencies. The needs assessment provides a detailed examination of the challenges and opportunities facing transit agencies in their transition to zero-emissions bus fleets. By addressing these issues through targeted support, stakeholders can collaboratively work towards a cleaner, more sustainable public transportation system that benefits all communities.

33 - ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Curb Allocation and Pick-Up Drop-Off Aggregation for a Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleet

Advances in information technologies and vehicle automation have birthed new transportation services, including shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs). Shared autonomous vehicles are on-demand self-driving taxis, with flexible routes and schedules, able to replace personal vehicles for many trips in the near future. The siting and density of pick-up and drop-off (PUDO) points for SAVs, much like bus stops, can be key in planning SAV fleet operations, since PUDOs impact SAV demand, route choices, passenger wait times, and network congestion. Unlike traditional human-driven taxis and ride-hailing vehicles like Lyft and Uber, SAVs are unlikely to engage in quasi-legal procedures, like double parking or fire hydrant pick-ups. In congested settings, like central business districts (CBD) or airport curbs, SAVs and others will not be allowed to pick up and drop off passengers wherever they like. This paper uses an agent-based simulation to model the impact of different PUDO locations and densities in the Austin, Texas CBD, where land values are highest and curb spaces are coveted. In this paper 18 scenarios were tested, varying PUDO density, fleet size and fare price. The results show that for a given fare price and fleet size, PUDO spacing (e.g., one block vs. three blocks) has significant impact on ridership, vehicle-miles travelled, vehicle occupancy, and revenue. A good fleet size to serve the region’s 80 core square miles is 4000 SAVs, charging a $1 fare per mile of travel distance, and with PUDOs spaced three blocks of distance apart from each other in the CBD.

Hunter, Christian B.↗

ADDS-EVS: An agent-based deployment decision-support system for electric vehicle services

Rapid and sustainable development of the electric vehicle (EV) industry places the requirement for the plan of EV deployment. For public EV, existing models mainly focus on the charging facility design and fail to capture the multi-modal scenarios. In this work, we develop an agent-based decision-support system for multi-modal electric transits to locate the optimal combinations of key parameters, including the fleet size, the transit schedule, the charging facility design, and the routing strategy. We demonstrate the utilities of our system by simulating public EV services deployed to serve travel needs related to a transportation hub in New York City. To support the decision of the fleet size, we summarize system-level performances including the total satisfied demand, passengers' waiting time, vehicle idling time. The spatial and temporal patterns are extracted to serve a deeper understanding of system dynamics and service quality. Finally, we investigate the interaction between the fleet size design and the routing strategy. The results suggest a necessity of integrating the operation strategies into the planning phase.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

MODULARITY-AT-SCALE FOR COST COMPETITIVE DEPLOYMENT OF NUCLEAR ENERGY

Modularity options have been limited for traditional nuclear energy deployment due to the conventional light water reactor (LWR) safety requirements, such as high pressure retaining heavy and robust containment structures. However, a relatively new regulatory approach called ‘Functional Containment’ has potential to allow less expensive and more flexible designs for non LWRs. Functional containment provides flexibility in design and deployment based on risk informed and performance-based criteria, so that reactors are not over-designed. Non-nuclear industry has successfully used modular design approaches in automotive, aerospace, chemical processing, building construction, and ship building. These industries have shown that modular construction reduces construction time by around 30% - 50% compared to the conventional stick built approach. The nuclear industry can use similar approaches to reduce construction time and costs, balanced with safety requirements, using the functional containment approach. This paper discussing the background of modularity in nuclear energy, examples of less learned, modularity approaches in non-nuclear industries and the potential of cost and schedule savings through the emerging regulatory design flexibilities potentially enabling combination of modular deployment at different scales.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER) Plan for Corrective Action Unit 114: Area 25 EMAD Facility Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, (Rev.0, with ROTC 1)

This Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER) Plan addresses the actions needed to achieve closure for Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 114, Area 25 EMAD Facility, identified in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO). CAU 114 comprises the following corrective action sites (CASs) located in Area 25 of the Nevada National Security Site (formerly, the Nevada Test Site): 25-41-03, EMAD Facility; 25-99-23, Manned Control Car (MCC) and Engine Installation Vehicle (EIV); and 25-33-05, Building 3901, Engine Transport System Maintenance Building. This plan provides the methodology for field activities needed to gather the necessary information for closing CAU 114. There is sufficient information and process knowledge from historical documentation and investigations of similar sites regarding the expected nature and extent of potential contaminants to recommend closure of CAU 114 using the SAFER process. Additional information will be obtained by conducting a field investigation before selecting the appropriate corrective actions for CAU 114. It is anticipated that the results of the field investigation and implementation of corrective actions will support a defensible recommendation that no further corrective action is necessary. The purpose of the corrective action investigation will be to document and verify the adequacy of existing information; to affirm the decision for either clean closure, closure in place, or no further action; and to provide sufficient data to implement the corrective action. The actual corrective action selected will be based on characterization activities implemented under this SAFER Plan. If specific conditions or findings fall outside the bounds of the SAFER Plan, the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) will be consulted to determine the path forward before proceeding. Upon completion of SAFER activities, a closure report will be prepared and submitted to NDEP for review and approval. The schedule for completion of the closure report will be established at the FFACO annual meeting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hybrid Resources: Challenges, Implications, Opportunities, and Innovation

The electric power system has historically been designed to provide reliable energy to loads by using a relatively small number of well-understood generators. The distinction between load, generation, and transmission resources has been quite clear. Most of the responsibility for planning and operating a system - building a highly reliable network from less reliable parts - has been with the system manager, whether that be a utility, a regional market operator, or some similar entity. Given this historical context, many experts were initially perplexed by the rapidly growing popularity of hybrid resources, which combine multiple technologies into a single entity. Rather than depending on a system operator to provide instructions to individual technologies, hybrid resources intentionally take on more operational responsibility by optimizing and scheduling their combined functions. Interconnection queues in many regions reveal a large and growing interest in hybrids, suggesting that project developers and investors see them as providing advantages.

generators↗

Use of Historical EM Practices and Policies for Management of Cleanup Program and Address GAO Concerns - 20222

As Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) program policies and management practices are revised over time, it might be useful to periodically reflect on the DOE EM program's past to identify practices that have worked and those that might be appropriate for possible reuse in the future. An added impetus to examine alternative approaches is the recent Government Accountability Office (GAO) report entitled 'Nuclear Waste Cleanup - DOE Could Improve Program and Project Management by Better Classifying Work and Following Leading Practices.' The February 2019 GAO report states that EM categorizes most of its work in a way that does not adequately involve independent experts and DOE senior leadership. It also noted that EM has not followed leading practices for program and project management that could help keep the cleanup efforts on schedule and control costs. The GAO report recommended that EM, working with DOE Office of Project Management (PM): - Establish requirements and then assess EM's ongoing operations activities to determine if some activities should be reclassified as capital asset projects based on these newly established requirements. - Review and revise EM's 2017 cleanup policy to include program management leading practices related to scope, cost, schedule performance, and independent reviews. - Update the cleanup policy to require that earned value management (EVM) systems be maintained and used in a way that follows EVM best practices. - Develop a policy to ensure that work is categorized as level of effort (LOE) only in appropriate, specified circumstances, such as when work is not measurable or when measurement is impractical. - Integrate EVM data into EM's performance metrics for operations activities. To assist with improving program performance and implementing audit recommendations, this paper reviewed past successful cleanups such as Weldon Springs, Rocky Flats, Fernald, Ashtabula, Battelle Columbus (abs, and other historical resources and people with experience during the early years of EM program. As such, there are several past practices which may well be suited for reuse today. Some of these practices include: - In 1990's, as the DOE EM cleanup program, known as Environmental Restoration came into effect, the known cleanup scope at each geographic location or site was organized into four levels ranging from overall site-wide cleanup effort to the individual 'release sites', providing high granularity to the program. - The cleanup program was organized by geography (Northwest, Southwest, Eastern Area Programs, etc.). These 'sub-program' managers provided a degree of Headquarters oversight and management allowing upper management (EM-1, 2, and 3) to focus on major decisions and issues. - Budget levels at selected cleanup sites were funded above 'minimum-safety' levels to accelerate actual cleanup work. - Past practice utilized EVM techniques and uniform EM oversight over all discrete project-like activities, providing for a coordinated cleanup effort. - EM managed LOE activities using benchmarking and best in class management practice techniques to help manage costs. - EM managed and reviewed entire site cleanup baselines, not only individual projects, focusing on a successful overall outcome. - Sites had a 'Road map' or 'Management Action Plan' that provided the overall strategy or plan for that site's cleanup - this helped with understanding and coordination of efforts. - EM had a robust lessons-learned program and database to capture and transmit worthy ideas. - EM had well-structured cleanup baseline change control policies to control cost and schedule changes, at the contractor and higher Headquarters levels. Finally, some of the GAO observations may be valid, however it is not clear as to their extent. For example, for some operation types of work, the use of the Level of Effort (LOE) earned value method to track progress may be appropriate. Also, to ensure independence of thought, and to obtain useful insight on past practices, it may be suitable to have former EM employees to assist with understanding past practices or to verify that activities have been properly identified. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Harvesting the low-hanging fruit of high energy savings -- Virtual Occupancy using Wi-Fi Data

Approximately 20% of primary energy consumed in the U.S. is attributed to HVAC use. Ideally, HVAC operation would be driven by actual building occupancy, but lack of reliable occupancy information often results in the use of conservative static schedules. This disparity is even more pronounced in a college campus, where the function of each space differs by building (classrooms, offices, libraries) and the class schedules change frequently -- every semester, day of week, and hour. While several research papers propose the use of counts of the Wi-Fi connections (e.g., phones, computers) as a proxy for occupancy, few real-world implementations exist. This paper describes the development and deployment of an open-source Wi-Fi-to-Occupancy software library in 65 buildings of a college campus, and the planned integration with the building energy management and control system at the building scale. Over a year of Wi-Fi data was gathered into distinct academic periods, including fall and spring semester, academic breaks, and summer sessions. Patterns such as students moving between classrooms, closing laptops before exams, etc., can be visualized from the data. Approximating occupancy from Wi-Fi data presents challenges which we address in this project -- for example, identifying static devices, or estimating the ratio of devices per person. Utilizing real-time occupancy data to inform optimal HVAC schedules and ventilation rates creates the potential to identify and reduce energy waste. Other potential applications include forecasting occupancy, and using Wi-Fi data to predict peak demands. Finally, the paper discusses how to easily scale these tools to other buildings.

Pritoni, Marco↗

A Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Travel Time Gap and Inequality between Public Transportation and Personal Vehicles

The increased use of personal vehicles presents environmental challenges, prompting the exploration of public transportation as an affordable, eco-friendly alternative. However, obstacles like fixed schedules, limited routes, and extended travel times impede widespread adoption. This study investigates the temporal evolution of spatial inequality in the travel time gap between public transportation and personal vehicles, reflecting disparities across states and time periods. Analyzing Census Transportation Planning Program data for six northeastern states in 2010 and 2016 reveals no significant increase in the travel time gap, but notable growth in inequality in a few urban and disadvantaged communities. Comprehending these trends is vital for fostering equitable advancements in transportation infrastructure and enhancing public transportation competitiveness.

Pan, Melrose↗

Hydropower Role in a Power Grid with a High Proportion of Variable Renewables

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordination of multiple tools, including water resources modeling, ecological modeling, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. Better representation of ecological constraints and other water use details in the suit of power grid models are required to identify the hydropower flexibility to provide multiple power grid services. Impacts of water planning and hydropower operation changes to a power grid are better understood by production cost model simulations with technical and economic data, including unserved energy, reserve failures, transmission congestion to serve load, and local marginal price increases. Similarly, PCM simulation of current and future projected power grid information, including LMP, and carbon emission rates, informs short-term water release plans and long-term investments for power plant upgrades for technical and ecological needs. Hydropower operations of several case studies are simulated to understand operation patterns, revenue, water release decisions in multiple time scales (month, day, minutes), hydropower contracts scheduling, and water variability impacts.

environmental↗

Data-Driven Unit Commitment Refinement - a Scalable Approach for Complex Modern Power Grids

Integration of renewable generation, which is often intermittent and decentralized, substantially increases the stochasticity and complexity of power grid operations. Future power systems planning will require significant computational capability to evaluate balance between demand and supply under varying conditions, both temporally and spatially. The standard approach for generation unit commitment is to use mixed-integer linear programming to find the optimal generation schedule considering ramping and generator constraints. In the future grid this poses computational scalability challenges because generation and demand are not known with certainty due to stochasticity in weather and complexity of the grid. To address this challenge, we present a data-driven unit commitment approach that can efficiently include stochastic weather impacts and contingency considerations to improve unit commitment. Our approach uses graph-based data analytics techniques on solutions to the security constrained (and possibly stochastic) economic dispatch problem to identify potential improvements to a given unit commitment. Recent breakthroughs in fully-parallel stochastic economic dispatch software allow this approach to be scalably deployed. Simulations on synthetic South Carolina and Texas grids show this method can improve grid reliability with security constraints over a set of contingencies, while also meaningfully lowering total generation cost.

Holt, Timothy↗