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DOE OSTI2021

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 12. Synthesis

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter reviews high-level findings, costs, benefits, and lessons learned from integrating this diverse suite of models and conducting a high-fidelity 100% renewable energy study.

100% Renewable↗
DOE OSTI2022

Next Generation System Analysis Model Recently Added Features and Future Plans - Abstract

The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended (NWPA 1982), established the federal government’s responsibility to accept spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from waste owners and generators for ultimate disposition. SNF generated by the current fleet of commercial nuclear reactors is being stored at the reactor sites in spent fuel pools (SFPs) and in dry independent spent fuel storage installations (ISFSIs). The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) is developing an Integrated Waste Management Program (IWMP) comprising a suite of options and supporting analyses to enable future informed choices. The IWMP is applying integrated waste management system architecture analysis, system engineering, and decision analysis principles to inform potential future decisions regarding potential nuclear waste management system architectures. Architecture analyses of the IWM system are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive system for managing nuclear waste that considers all major aspects of the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation software tool designed for the express purpose of modeling the IWM system. NGSAM imports data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Unified Database (e.g., historic assembly information, thermal profiles for assembly heat, at-reactor dry storage loadings) to ensure that the simulation initializes with a realistic representation of the state of commercial SNF in the United States. Recent major enhancements that have been implemented into NGSAM since NGSAM was last presented at the WM2019 conference include: • Tracking of railroad escort and buffer car acquisition. • Addition of heavy haul and barge routes for some sites, as well as support for user-defined inter-modal routes. • Updates to the logic that checks the thermal maps prior to package transport. • Addition of an allocation method that predicts when reactor sites will pack assemblies from their pools for dry storage and allocates packages to those reactor sites in the preceding periods, favoring direct transport packages and reducing the number of packages that reactor sites pack for dry storage at their ISFSIs. • Addition of reactor site family operational limits, which are used to limit the number of loads from the pool and from dry storage at a given reactor site per year. • Support has been added for multiple canister loading maps and packages having multiple compatible transportation overpacks. • Updates in the handling of non-commercial fuel, including a new database containing data to support the updates. • Support for repackaging at reactor sites. • Implementing additional output reports or modifying existing reports. • User edits can now be created and edited via the NGSAM website. • Ability to load packages for dry storage at ISF pools. • Same-type package blending at DOE sites. • Support for multi-mode transloading at reactor sites. These new features have improved NGSAM capabilities and/or improve the user experience with the model and will be discussed in more detail. The initial NGSAM requirements for advanced reactor fuels, reprocessing, treatment, and conditioning are preliminary and are described at a high level in this paper: analysts will provide more specific requirements to the NGSAM team in the future. Additionally, there are many data needs associated with modeling advanced reactors in NGSAM, but many of the data or plans are still in progress and/or yet to be fully defined. However, this document describes an initial exploration of the data relevant to this program. Advanced reactor data will likely require revision as concepts evolve and new considerations are made. This is a technical paper that does not take into account contractual limitations or obligations under the Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High-Level Radioactive Waste (Standard Contract) (10 CFR Part 961). For example, under the provisions of the Standard Contract, spent nuclear fuel in multi-assembly canisters is not an acceptable waste form, absent a mutually agreed to contract amendment. To the extent discussions or recommendations in this paper conflict with the provisions of the Standard Contract, the Standard Contract governs the obligations of the parties, and this paper in no manner supersedes, overrides, or amends the Standard Contract. This paper reflects technical work which could support future decision making by DOE. No inferences should be drawn from this paper regarding future actions by DOE, which are limited both by the terms of the Standard Contract and Congressional appropriations for the Department to fulfill its obligations under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act including licensing and construction of a spent nuclear fuel repository.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 5. Utility Options for Local Solar and Storage

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter identifies and ranks locations for utility-scale solar (ground-mount, parking canopy, and floating) and storage, and associated costs for integrating these assets into the distribution system.

100% Renewable↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 9. Air Quality and Public Health

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter summarizes changes to air quality (fine particulate matter and ozone) and public health (premature mortality, emergency room visits due to asthma, and hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases), and the potential economic value of public health benefits.

100% Renewable↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 6. Renewable Energy Investments and Operations

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter explores pathways to 100% renewable electricity, describing the types of generation resources added, their costs, and how the systems maintain sufficient resources to serve customer demand, including resource adequacy and transmission reliability.

100% Renewable↗
DOE OSTI2021

National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) Master Technology Roadmap

The National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) is a research consortium formed to accelerate transformative research in desalination and treatment to lower the cost and energy required to produce clean water from nontraditional water sources and realize a circular water economy. Prior to developing this master roadmap, a team of NAWI researchers and water professionals engaged in a detailed process of evaluating water uses, state-of-the-art technologies, emerging technologies and existing uses of desalination and advanced water technologies within five major water user categories in the United States. The resulting Water User Sector Roadmaps were complemented by a Baseline Analysis of a suite of representative treatment systems conducted by NAWI researchers working in collaboration with the hub’s Industrial Partners. This Master Roadmap, which synthesizes the findings from these different efforts as well as feedback from members of NAWI’s Research Advisory Council, serves as the basis for identifying NAWI’s research Areas of Interest (AOIs).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

WECC Wide-Area Oscillation Assessment and Trending Study Report

This project, Wide-area Oscillation Analysis and Trending Study, is sponsored by the Office of Electricity (OE) of the Department of Energy (DOE) who tasked Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to conduct this research. Staff of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) have been involved in the project as observers and have provided advisory comments and suggestions. The primary objective of this study is to assess whether there are significant trends in the wide-area oscillatory behavior with respect to the significant generation-mix changes brought by the increased penetration of RES in the WECC system. The work performed in this project is considered to be complimentary to previous work by NERC/industry and covers the aspects that have not been studied or trended before. The trending analysis presented in this report can serve as reference for future grid planning and operation of the WECC system. In this report, how the changes in the generation mix can impact the frequency and damping ratio (DR) of WECC wide-area oscillation modes has been studied. Thorough data-based and model-based analyses have been carried out to analyze the current trends and then extended to evaluate the oscillation behaviors of the future WECC system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 7. Distribution System Analysis

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter summarizes the growth in distribution-connected energy resources and provides a detailed review of impacts to the distribution grid of growth in customer electricity demand, solar, and storage, as well as required distribution grid upgrades and associated costs.

100% Renewable↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparative Analysis of Natural Gas Cogeneration Incentives on Electricity Production in Latin America

An analysis to assess the influence of country-dependent variables and incentives on the feasibility of natural gas cogeneration projects in Latin America is presented in this work. The analysis is performed using a hypothetical industrial plant, where the cogeneration solution consists in the recovery of waste heat from the power generation for steam production. The feasibility is evaluated by calculating the Return of Investment (ROI) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project. Eight Latin American countries are studied considering their specific natural gas markets, regulation, and macroeconomic variables. Two scenarios, electricity production for self-consumption and electricity production with power surplus sale, are independently analyzed considering the effects of available incentives. In the countries where the project is feasible, the application of incentives leads to a significant reduction in the ROI and, consequently, to an increment in the IRR. The effect of the interest rate and environmental impact were also analyzed. In general terms, along the region, the regulation for cogeneration is incipient while incentives are very standard and similar respect to lowering of import, Value-Added Tax (VAT), and income taxes, which seems to be designed purely to promote capital investment. Following the results from this study, it is of paramount importance to create new policy instruments in the future to advance the regulatory framework for cogeneration in Latin America.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Guanajuato Policy Options for Land Transportation Greenhouse Gas Reduction [Slides]

NREL consulted the Mexican state of Guanajuato to help them identify and prioritize policies that are specifically applicable to their land transportation system and help them meet their greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals. Three focus groups were held across Guanajuato to get the input from a wide variety of users of the transportation system. These focus groups performed a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of Guanajuato's transportation system and logged the policy goals of participants. NREL then developed a menu of policy options that have been used successfully in relevant countries and prioritized these policies based on the weighted input from stakeholder groups. The most applicable policies were a paid parking strategy, regional transit master plan, and expanded bike and pedestrian infrastructure. Case studies of these three policies, plus a few more, were then presented to inform Guanajuato of how these policies could successfully be implemented. Finally, the GHG reductions for five of the most applicable policies were estimated to reduce emissions from Guanajuato's land transportation system nearly 40% below business-as-usual emissions by 2050.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nova Analysis: Holistically Valuing the Contributions of Residential Efficiency, Solar and Storage

Policies to address climate change and grid modernization, in combination with cost reductions and technological advancements in energy efficiency (EE) and distributed energy resources (DER), are driving rapid deployment of building electrification and energy efficiency retrofits, rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV), smart thermostats, smart water heaters, and battery energy storage. In residential buildings, there are multiple stakeholders (occupant, utility, aggregator, society at large) that are each focused on different value streams. This project uses a suite of metrics intended to all of these value streams to try to holistically analyze the benefits that come from solar, storage, and energy efficiency. To demonstrate the value of these metrics, a semi annual study was performed simulating hundreds of homes across the U.S. under several different upgrade scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 3. Electricity Demand Projections

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter explores how electricity is consumed by customers now, how that might change through 2045, and potential opportunities to better align electricity demand and supply.

100% Renewable↗
DOE OSTI2024

The path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's long-term pathway for GHG emission reduction

Saudi Arabia, as part of its Saudi Green Initiative, has announced its goal to achieve net zero green-house gas emissions by 2060. This ambitious target underscores the nation's dedication to address-ing climate change. However, there is a significant gap in comprehensive analysis regarding the long-term effects of Saudi Arabia's climate policies and their collective contribution towards the net-zero objective. This study endeavors to bridge this gap through a detailed examination using the GCAM-KSA, a specialized version of the Global Change Analysis Model tailored for Saudi Arabia, employing a multi-sectoral methodology that integrates economic, energy, and land use systems within a coherent framework to assess the impact of climate policies on GHG emissions. Our anal-ysis reveals that reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2060 is a complex challenge requiring con-certed efforts across all sectors of the economy. While transitioning to low-carbon electricity and improving energy efficiency offer considerable emission reductions, fully decarbonizing the indus-trial and transportation sectors poses a significant hurdle. Our findings suggest that Saudi Arabia must triple its emission reduction commitments in its next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) update to align with its 2060 net-zero goal. Early action and increased ambition could avoid the chances of getting locked into the high emission assets and give enough time to transform the energy system. Furthermore, the adoption and integration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) tech-nologies are identified as crucial for offsetting residual emissions, especially in sectors that might continue to rely on fossil fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing complexity and dynamics in epidemics: geographical barriers and facilitators of foot-and-mouth disease dissemination

Introduction: Physical and non-physical processes that occur in nature may influence biological processes, such as dissemination of infectious diseases. However, such processes may be hard to detect when they are complex systems. Because complexity is a dynamic and non-linear interaction among numerous elements and structural levels in which specific effects are not necessarily linked to any one specific element, cause-effect connections are rarely or poorly observed. Methods: To test this hypothesis, the complex and dynamic properties of geo-biological data were explored with high-resolution epidemiological data collected in the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epizootic that mainly affected cattle. County-level data on cases, farm density, road density, river density, and the ratio of road (or river) length/county perimeter were analyzed with an open-ended procedure that identified geographical clustering in the first 11 epidemic weeks. Two questions were asked: (i) do geo-referenced epidemiologic data display complex properties? and (ii) can such properties facilitate or prevent disease dissemination? Results: Emergent patterns were detected when complex data structures were analyzed, which were not observed when variables were assessed individually. Complex properties–including data circularity–were demonstrated. The emergent patterns helped identify 11 counties as ‘disseminators’ or ‘facilitators’ (F) and 264 counties as ‘barriers’ (B) of epidemic spread. In the early epidemic phase, F and B counties differed in terms of road density and FMD case density. Focusing on non-biological, geographical data, a second analysis indicated that complex relationships may identify B-like counties even before epidemics occur. Discussion: Geographical barriers and/or promoters of disease dispersal may precede the introduction of emerging pathogens. If corroborated, the analysis of geo-referenced complexity may support anticipatory epidemiological policies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Current State of Light-Duty Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Costs: An Assessment of Contemporary Understanding

This study uses a hybrid meta-analysis and literature-review approach to understand the current state of knowledge regarding the costs of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). We present a novel way to consider, categorize, and label measures of cost and show cost measure estimates from a sample of 13 recent studies. We find that in general, there is too much variation and too few commonly represented EVSE cost measures to reasonably provide aggregate figures for these measures. We propose a convention for presenting EVSE cost measures that includes the application (commercial or residential), the power level (Level 1, Level 2, DCFC [with further distinction based on rated power capacity]), and the type of cost measure (hardware, installation, operation, and total cost). We contend that providing researchers with standard cost measures will help to advance our knowledge of EVSE costs by ensuring that future work will use common metrics. Establishing common metrics will enable conventional meta-analyses that will make assessments of EVSE costs even more accessible. Additionally, common metrics will make tracking costs more reliable as the technology continues to evolve and become more ubiquitous.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis

The Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis (BSA) project uses systems thinking and analysis to assess how techno economics, research and development, deployment strategies, policy, and market conditions affect the potential development trajectories of the developing bioenergy industry. This project informs researchers, decision makers, and industry by identifying opportunities for and constraints to industrial development and quantifying important industry metrics (e.g., energy, economic, environmental) towards a sustainable domestic bioenergy system. One of the tools used in this project, the Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM) is a publicly-available, unique, validated, state-of-the-art, award-winning, fourth-generation model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on how and under what conditions biofuel technologies might be deployed to contribute to the U.S. transportation energy sector. Analysis products from this effort enable the development of the bioenergy industry by (1) encouraging policy-makers to explore multiple levers simulating outside impacts on biofuels production, identifying policy actions; (2) improving industry's understanding of growth potential under different market conditions, better targeting their development efforts; and (3) providing universities and other interested stakeholders with analysis tools and analyses that can be adapted to meet research and teaching objectives, thus connecting students with careers that build the industry.

bioenergy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO 2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sundiang, Marina [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unite↗