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Beginner's Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans

This guide was developed to improve decision-making in the electricity planning process by strengthening dialogue between electricity system planners and stakeholders throughout the process. This document was created for anyone who is first getting exposed to scenario results from power system planning models, or for those who are beginning to interact with power system modelers. It does not assume any experience with power system modeling, or familiarity with electricity planning concepts. This guide can be helpful to a wide range of people, including but not limited to state utility commissioners and commission staff, state energy offices, and intervenors in the planning process. It is targeted to those who are evaluating or reviewing model results presented by a utility, which typically span utility-scale generation and storage (and associated transmission) assets. This guide is designed to provide enough background and guidance that stakeholders can formulate and ask questions to evaluate model results through a deeper understanding of the key assumptions, data, and methods that drive decision outcomes. The ultimate purpose of this work is to increase transparency in the electricity planning process by enabling stakeholders to better engage and evaluate model results. A follow-on guide will provide a deeper dive into emerging topics, which are expected to become more prominent in the electricity planning process, but whose methods and approaches are still being refined.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated Transmission-and-Distribution System Modeling of Power Systems: State-of-the-Art and Future Research Directions

Integrated transmission-and-distribution (T&D) modeling is a new and developing method for simulating power systems. Interest in integrated T&D modeling is driven by the changes taking place in power systems worldwide that are resulting in more decentralized power systems with increasingly high levels of distributed energy resources. Additionally, the increasing role of the hitherto passive energy consumer in the management and operation of power systems requires more capable and detailed integrated T&D modeling to understand the interactions between T&D systems. Although integrated T&D modeling has not yet found widespread commercial application, its potential for changing the decades-old power system modeling approaches has led to several research efforts in the last few years that tried to (i) develop algorithms and software for steady-state and dynamic modeling of power systems and (ii) demonstrate the advantages of this modeling approach compared with traditional, separated T&D system modeling. In this paper, we provide a review of integrated T&D modeling research efforts and the methods employed for steady-state and dynamic modeling of power systems. We also discuss our current research in integrated T&D modeling and the potential directions for future research. This paper should be useful for power systems researchers and industry members because it will provide them with a critical summary of current research efforts and the potential topics where research efforts are needed to further advance and demonstrate the utility of integrated T&D modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydrodynamic Qualities of a 1/10-Size Powered Dynamic Model of the XP5Y-1 Flying Boat in Smooth Water: Langley Tank Model 246, TED No. NACA DE 320

The hydrodynamic characteristics of a 1/10-size powered dynamic model of the XP5Y-1 flying boat were determined in Langley tank no. 1. Stable take-offs were possible at all practicable positions of the center of gravity and flap deflections. An increase in gross load from 123.5 to 150.0 pounds (21.5 percent) had only a slight effect on the stable range for take-off. A decrease in forward acceleration from 3.0 to 1.0 feet per second per second had only a very small effect on the stable range for take-off. In general, the landings were free from skipping except at trims below 6 deg where one skip was encountered at an aft position of the center of gravity. The model porpoised during the landing runout at all positions of the center of gravity when landed at trims above 10 deg. Spray in the propellers was light at the design gross load, and was not considered excessive,at a gross load of 136.0 pounds.

Woodward, David R.↗

Modeling Imperfect Generator Behavior in Power System Operation Models

A key component in power system operations is the use of computer models to quickly study and analyze different operating conditions and futures in an efficient manner. The output of these models are sensitive to the data used in them as well as the assumptions made during their execution. One typical assumption is that generators and load assets perfectly follow operator control signals. While this is a valid simulation assumption, generators may not always accurately follow control signals. This imperfect response of generators could impact cost and reliability metrics. This paper proposes a generator model that capture this imperfect behavior and examines its impact on production costs and reliability metrics using a steady-state power system operations model. Preliminary analysis shows that while costs remain relatively unchanged, there could be significant impacts on reliability metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advancing Dynamic Modeling of Grid-Connected PV Inverter Using Bi-LSTM-Based AI Model

Power electronic converters (PECs) are widely used in modern power systems to facilitate the interconnection between various AC or DC sources and loads. Because of the extensive integration, the power system has grown into a more dynamic system in which the dynamics of the PECs must be adequately modeled. The paper presents a new bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) method for evaluating grid-connected inverter-based resources (IBR) dynamics. The method is tested using real hardware data from a grid -connected commercial inverter in laboratory experiments. Results show the Bi-LSTM model accurately reproduces the detailed IBR model's dynamics, even when the internal structure is unknown and parameters are unknown, preventing the disclosure of the manufacturer's confidential data.

Subedi, Sunil [ORNL] (ORCID:000000034069090X)↗

Setting operating points for circuits in an integrated circuit chip using an integrated voltage regulator power loss model

An apparatus includes an integrated circuit chip with a set of circuits having two or more subsets of circuits; an external voltage regulator separate from the integrated circuit chip; two or more integrated voltage regulators on the integrated circuit chip that each provide an input voltage to a respective subset of the circuits; and a controller. The controller determines, using an integrated voltage regulator power loss model, an electrical power loss for the integrated voltage regulators for a first combination of operating points for the subsets of the circuits. The controller then determines, based on the electrical power loss, a second combination of operating points for the subsets of the circuits that includes an adjustment to an operating point for at least one of the subsets of the circuits that compensates for an electrical power loss of the corresponding integrated voltage regulator. The controller sets an operating point of each of the subsets of the circuits based on the second combination of operating points.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Intermediate Fidelity Closed Brayton Cycle Power Conversion Model

This paper describes the implementation of an intermediate fidelity model of a closed Brayton Cycle power conversion system (Closed Cycle System Simulation). The simulation is developed within the Numerical Propulsion Simulation System architecture using component elements from earlier models. Of particular interest, and power, is the ability of this new simulation system to initiate a more detailed analysis of compressor and turbine components automatically and to incorporate the overall results into the general system simulation.

Lavelle, Thomas M.↗

Analysis of Reactive Power Load Modeling Techniques for PV Impact Studies [Slides]

The increasing availability of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data has led to significant improvements in load modeling accuracy. However, since many AMI devices were installed to facilitate billing practices, few utilities record or store reactive power demand measurements from their AMI. When reactive power measurements are unavailable, simplifying assumptions are often applied for load modeling purposes, such as applying constant power factors to the loads. The objective of this work is to quantify the impact that reactive power load modeling practices can have on distribution system analysis, with a particular focus on evaluating the behaviors of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems with advanced inverter capabilities. Quasi-static time-series simulations were conducted after applying a variety of reactive power load modeling approaches, and the results were compared to a baseline scenario in which real and reactive power measurements were available at all customer locations on the circuit. Overall, it was observed that applying constant power factors to loads can lead to significant errors when evaluating customer voltage profiles, but that performing per-phase time-series reactive power allocation can be utilized to reduce these errors by about 6x, on average, resulting in more accurate evaluations of advanced inverter functions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A MILP-Based Distribution Optimal Power Flow Model for Microgrid Operation

This paper proposes a distribution optimal power flow (D-OPF) model for the operation of microgrids. The proposed model minimizes not only the operating cost, including fuel cost, purchasing cost and demand charge, but also several performance indices, including voltage deviation, network power loss and power factor. It co-optimizes the real and reactive power form distributed generators (DGs) and batteries considering their capacity and power factor limits. The D-OPF is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Numerical simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

distributed generators↗

Nuclear Electric Propulsion Modular Power Conversion Model

This work builds upon a previously examined single loop power conversion cycle for nuclear electric propulsion systems. The intent of this model is to enable examination of trends within the system and extract system parameters that could be used in a mass model to understand how technology performance may impact overall system mass.Several model upgrades were made since the previous work which included physics-based sizing of the turbomachinery and pressure loss inside the radiator. A higher fidelity and modular fluid property code was also developed to help understand the impact of variable fluid properties more accurately and allow for the analysis of different fluids in the same model. The upgraded model features radiator and reactor loops with separate fluids from the Brayton cycle to understand advantages and disadvantages of using multiple working fluids as well as the capability of simulating off nominal system performance. The latter provides a steppingstone for modeling the transient performance of the power conversion system.

NEP↗

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Performant Optimization Strategies for Multifidelity Stochastic Power Grid Models

This talk goes into the algorithmic work done under the Forest project in order to solve expensive power grid models. We explore multiple fidelities of models that balance accuracy and computational expense. We use bundling strategies and progressive hedging in order to parallelize large stochastic programs.

Alfant, Rachael May [Sandia National Laboratories ↗

TEMPEST (Thermo-Electric Model for Powering Energy Storage Technologies)

NREL's TEMPEST model combines electrical and thermal modeling for residential-scale battery systems. The model and default parameters are based off of two common commercial residential batteries. Key inputs to the model include house load, temperature of the battery location, and the solar profile. The key output of the TEMPEST model is the battery profile and internal battery temperature. If internal battery temperature exceeds limits, a derating will occur and this will be reflected in the battery profile. In addition to thermal modeling, the TEMPEST model uses realistic operating principals that are common in today's residential batteries. Mainly, the TEMPEST model incorporates "modes" of operation that constrain battery setpoint based on house load, solar output, and state of charge. The TEMPEST model can be used to analyze the effect of battery temperature, deratings, and mode setpoints on utility network loading and customer bills.

Blonsky, Michael↗

Estimation of inflation parameters for Perturbed Power Law model using recent CMB measurements

Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) is an important probe for understanding the inflationary era of the Universe. We consider the Perturbed Power Law (PPL) model of inflation which is a soft deviation from Power Law (PL) inflationary model. This model captures the effect of higher order derivative of Hubble parameter during inflation, which in turn leads to a non-zero effective mass m{sub eff} for the inflaton field. The higher order derivatives of Hubble parameter at leading order sources constant difference in the spectral index for scalar and tensor perturbation going beyond PL model of inflation. PPL model have two observable independent parameters, namely spectral index for tensor perturbation ν{sub t} and change in spectral index for scalar perturbation ν{sub st} to explain the observed features in the scalar and tensor power spectrum of perturbation. From the recent measurements of CMB power spectra by WMAP, Planck and BICEP-2 for temperature and polarization, we estimate the feasibility of PPL model with standard ΛCDM model. Although BICEP-2 claimed a detection of r=0.2, estimates of dust contamination provided by Planck have left open the possibility that only upper bound on r will be expected in a joint analysis. As a result we consider different upper bounds on the value of r and show that PPL model can explain a lower value of tensor to scalar ratio (r<0.1 or r<0.01) for a scalar spectral index of n{sub s}=0.96 by having a non-zero value of effective mass of the inflaton field m{sup 2}{sub eff}/H{sup 2}. The analysis with WP + Planck likelihood shows a non-zero detection of m{sup 2}{sub eff}/H{sup 2} with 5.7 σ and 8.1 σ respectively for r<0.1 and r<0.01. Whereas, with BICEP-2 likelihood m{sup 2}{sub eff}/H{sup 2} = −0.0237 ± 0.0135 which is consistent with zero.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

150 kW Class Solar Electric Propulsion Spacecraft Power Architecture Model

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Demonstration Mission in conjunction with PC Krause and Associates has created a Simulink-based power architecture model for a 50 kilo-Watt (kW) solar electric propulsion system. NASA has extended this model to investigate 150 kW solar electric propulsion systems. Increasing the power system capability from 50 kW to 150 kW better aligns with the anticipated power requirements for Mars and other deep space explorations. The high-power solar electric propulsion capability has been identified as a critical part of NASAs future beyond-low-Earth-orbit for human-crewed exploration missions. This paper presents multiple 150 kW architectures, simulation results, and a discussion of their merits.

Power Control↗