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At least 199 records · Page 11

Functional Data Analysis Applied to Modeling of Severe Acute Mucositis and Dysphagia Resulting From Head and Neck Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Current normal tissue complication probability modeling using logistic regression suffers from bias and high uncertainty in the presence of highly correlated radiation therapy (RT) dose data. This hinders robust estimates of dose-response associations and, hence, optimal normal tissue–sparing strategies from being elucidated. Using functional data analysis (FDA) to reduce the dimensionality of the dose data could overcome this limitation. Methods and Materials: FDA was applied to modeling of severe acute mucositis and dysphagia resulting from head and neck RT. Functional partial least squares regression (FPLS) and functional principal component analysis were used for dimensionality reduction of the dose-volume histogram data. The reduced dose data were input into functional logistic regression models (functional partial least squares–logistic regression [FPLS-LR] and functional principal component–logistic regression [FPC-LR]) along with clinical data. This approach was compared with penalized logistic regression (PLR) in terms of predictive performance and the significance of treatment covariate–response associations, assessed using bootstrapping. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the PLR, FPC-LR, and FPLS-LR models was 0.65, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively, for mucositis (internal validation) and 0.81, 0.83, and 0.83, respectively, for dysphagia (external validation). The calibration slopes/intercepts for the PLR, FPC-LR, and FPLS-LR models were 1.6/−0.67, 0.45/0.47, and 0.40/0.49, respectively, for mucositis (internal validation) and 2.5/−0.96, 0.79/−0.04, and 0.79/0.00, respectively, for dysphagia (external validation). The bootstrapped odds ratios indicated significant associations between RT dose and severe toxicity in the mucositis and dysphagia FDA models. Cisplatin was significantly associated with severe dysphagia in the FDA models. None of the covariates was significantly associated with severe toxicity in the PLR models. Dose levels greater than approximately 1.0 Gy/fraction were most strongly associated with severe acute mucositis and dysphagia in the FDA models. Conclusions: FPLS and functional principal component analysis marginally improved predictive performance compared with PLR and provided robust dose-response associations. FDA is recommended for use in normal tissue complication probability modeling.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Machine Learning Approaches for Nuclear Material Accounting Data from Irradiation and Reprocessing

We are currently exploring data analysis methods for their ability to strengthen the synthesis and evaluation of information generated within domestic and international safeguard regimes. Safeguard data typically includes rich heterogenous datasets amenable to advanced data analytics methods, such as machine learning. We have converted transactional data containing both numerical and categorical attributes from a domestic nuclear material control and accountability (NMC&A) system into a low-dimensional numerical structure via linear principal component analysis. This data representation allows for global structure discovery via cluster analysis, which can characterize the typical behavior of each of the primary types of transaction events. Furthermore, the structure of the top principal components captures the “typical behavior” of the data and is thus amenable to anomaly detection through statistical hypothesis testing. We explored this capability by generating erroneous permutations of the data and computing the Q-residual quantity increase associated with the information loss when these data are projected into the low-dimensional principal component analysis space representative of typical transactions.Future work will focus on identifying data transformations (e.g., graph networks) that more closely align with the inherent structure of these transactions to explain more salient information and disambiguate the underlying nuclear process—in this case, irradiation and reprocessing—from artifacts of NMC&A system transactional record keeping data.

Drescher, Adam↗

CARBON STARS IN THE SATELLITES AND HALO OF M31

We spectroscopically identify a sample of carbon stars in the satellites and halo of M31 using moderate-resolution optical spectroscopy from the Spectroscopic and Photometric Landscape of Andromeda’s Stellar Halo survey. We present the photometric properties of our sample of 41 stars, including their brightness with respect to the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) and their distributions in various color–color spaces. This analysis reveals a bluer population of carbon stars fainter than the TRGB and a redder population of carbon stars brighter than the TRGB. We then apply principal component analysis to determine the sample’s eigenspectra and eigencoefficients. Correlating the eigencoefficients with various observable properties reveals the spectral features that trace effective temperature and metallicity. Putting the spectroscopic and photometric information together, we find the carbon stars in the satellites and halo of M31 to be minimally impacted by dust and internal dynamics. We also find that while there is evidence to suggest that the sub-TRGB stars are extrinsic in origin, it is also possible that they are are particularly faint members of the asymptotic giant branch.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

In Situ Aerosol Profile Measurements and Comparisons with SAGE 3 Aerosol Extinction and Surface Area Profiles at 68 deg North

Under funding from this proposal three in situ profile measurements of stratospheric sulfate aerosol and ozone were completed from balloon-borne platforms. The measured quantities are aerosol size resolved number concentration and ozone. The one derived product is aerosol size distribution, from which aerosol moments, such as surface area, volume, and extinction can be calculated for comparison with SAGE III measurements and SAGE III derived products, such as surface area. The analysis of these profiles and comparison with SAGE III extinction measurements and SAGE III derived surface areas are provided in Yongxiao (2005), which comprised the research thesis component of Mr. Jian Yongxiao's M.S. degree in Atmospheric Science at the University of Wyoming. In addition analysis continues on using principal component analysis (PCA) to derive aerosol surface area from the 9 wavelength extinction measurements available from SAGE III. Ths paper will present PCA components to calculate surface area from SAGE III measurements and compare these derived surface areas with those available directly from in situ size distribution measurements, as well as surface areas which would be derived from PCA and Thomason's algorithm applied to the four wavelength SAGE II extinction measurements.

Source record↗

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

Correlation Analysis↗

DCE-MRI defined subvolumes of a brain metastatic lesion by principle component analysis and fuzzy-c-means clustering for response assessment of radiation therapy

Purpose: To develop a pharmacokinetic modelfree framework to analyze the dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) data for assessment of response of brain metastases to radiation therapy. Methods: Twenty patients with 45 analyzable brain metastases had MRI scans prior to whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) and at the end of the 2-week therapy. The volumetric DCE images covering the whole brain were acquired on a 3T scanner with approximately 5 s temporal resolution and a total scan time of about 3 min. DCE curves from all voxels of the 45 brain metastases were normalized and then temporally aligned. A DCE matrix that is constructed from the aligned DCE curves of all voxels of the 45 lesions obtained prior to WBRT is processed by principal component analysis to generate the principal components (PCs). Then, the projection coefficient maps prior to and at the end of WBRT are created for each lesion. Next, a pattern recognition technique, based upon fuzzy-c-means clustering, is used to delineate the tumor subvolumes relating to the value of the significant projection coefficients. The relationship between changes in different tumor subvolumes and treatment response was evaluated to differentiate responsive from stable and progressive tumors. Performance of the PC-defined tumor subvolume was also evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis in prediction of nonresponsive lesions and compared with physiological-defined tumor subvolumes. Results: The projection coefficient maps of the first three PCs contain almost all response-related information in DCE curves of brain metastases. The first projection coefficient, related to the area under DCE curves, is the major component to determine response while the third one has a complimentary role. In ROC analysis, the area under curve of 0.88 ± 0.05 and 0.86 ± 0.06 were achieved for the PC-defined and physiological-defined tumor subvolume in response assessment. Conclusions: The PC-defined subvolume of a brain metastasis could predict tumor response to therapy similar to the physiological-defined one, while the former is determined more rapidly for clinical decision-making support.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

XPCA - R Implementation

Principal component analysis (PCA) is arguably the most popular tool in multivariate exploratory data analysis. We consider the question of how to handle heterogeneous variables that include continuous, binary, and ordinal. In the probabilistic interpretation of low-rank PCA, the data has a normal multivariate distribution and, therefore, normal marginal distributions for each column. If some marginals are continuous but not normal, the semiparametric copula-based principal component analysis (COCA) method is an alternative to PCA that combines a Gaussian copula with nonparametric marginals. If some marginals are discrete or semi-continuous, we present a new extended PCA (XPCA) method that also uses a Gaussian copula and nonparametric marginals and accounts for discrete variables in the likelihood calculation by integrating over appropriate intervals. Like PCA, the factors produced by XPCA can be used to find latent structure in data, build predictive models, and perform dimensionality reduction. We implement the new model, XPCA, and its ancestors PCA and COCA in both R and Python. This software provides implementations of XPCA, COCA, and probabilistic PCA in both R and Python. XPCA is written in arXiv report https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.07510. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2019-10591 M

Kincher-Winoto, Kina↗

XPCA -Python Implementation

Principal component analysis (PCA) is arguably the most popular tool in multivariate exploratory data analysis. We consider the question of how to handle heterogeneous variables that include continuous, binary, and ordinal. In the probabilistic interpretation of low-rank PCA, the data has a normal multivariate distribution and, therefore, normal marginal distributions for each column. If some marginals are continuous but not normal, the semiparametric copula-based principal component analysis (COCA) method is an alternative to PCA that combines a Gaussian copula with nonparametric marginals. If some marginals are discrete or semi-continuous, we present a new extended PCA (XPCA) method that also uses a Gaussian copula and nonparametric marginals and accounts for discrete variables in the likelihood calculation by integrating over appropriate intervals. Like PCA, the factors produced by XPCA can be used to find latent structure in data, build predictive models, and perform dimensionality reduction. We implement the new model, XPCA, and its ancestors PCA and COCA in both R and Python. This software provides implementations of XPCA, COCA, and probabilistic PCA in both R and Python. XPCA is written in arXiv report https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.07510. SAND2019-10591 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Kincher-Winoto, Kina↗

Relationship of Imaging Frequency and Planning Margin to Account for Intrafraction Prostate Motion: Analysis Based on Real-Time Monitoring Data

Purpose: Correction for intrafraction prostate motion becomes important for hypofraction treatment of prostate cancer. The purpose of this study was to estimate an ideal planning margin to account for intrafraction prostate motion as a function of imaging and repositioning frequency in the absence of continuous prostate motion monitoring. Methods and Materials: For 31 patients receiving intensity modulated radiation therapy treatment, prostate positions sampled at 10 Hz during treatment using the Calypso system were analyzed. Using these data, we simulated multiple, less frequent imaging protocols, including intervals of every 10, 15, 20, 30, 45, 60, 90, 120, 180, and 240 seconds. For each imaging protocol, the prostate displacement at the imaging time was corrected by subtracting prostate shifts from the subsequent displacements in that fraction. Furthermore, we conducted a principal component analysis to quantify the direction of prostate motion. Results: Averaging histograms of every 240 and 60 seconds for all patients, vector displacements of the prostate were, respectively, within 3 and 2 mm for 95% of the treatment time. A vector margin of 1 mm achieved 91.2% coverage of the prostate with 30 second imaging. The principal component analysis for all fractions showed the largest variance in prostate position in the midsagittal plane at 54° from the anterior direction, indicating that anterosuperior to inferoposterior is the direction of greatest motion. The smallest prostate motion is in the left-right direction. Conclusions: The magnitudes of intrafraction prostate motion along the superior-inferior and anterior-posterior directions are comparable, and the smallest motion is in the left-right direction. In the absence of continuous prostate motion monitoring, and under ideal circumstances, 1-, 2-, and 3-mm vector planning margins require a respective imaging frequency of every 15, 60, and 240 to account for intrafraction prostate motion while achieving adequate geometric target coverage for 95% of the time.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

General constraints on dark matter decay from the cosmic microwave background

Precise measurements of the temperature and polarization anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background can be used to constrain the annihilation and decay of dark matter. We demonstrate via principal component analysis that the imprint of dark matter decay on the cosmic microwave background can be approximately parametrized by a single number for any given dark matter model. We develop a simple prescription for computing this model-dependent detectability factor, and demonstrate how this approach can be used to set model-independent bounds on a large class of decaying dark matter scenarios. We repeat our analysis for decay lifetimes shorter than the age of the Universe, allowing us to set constraints on metastable species other than the dark matter decaying at early times, and decays that only liberate a tiny fraction of the dark matter mass energy. We set precise bounds and validate our principal component analysis using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and Planck 2015 data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Monitoring Aqueous Reprocessing Systems for Detection of Facility Misuse

Traditional approaches to material control and accounting at used nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities relies in large part on laboratory-based destructive assay of periodic samples taken from key stages. These techniques are highly accurate, but limited inspection frequency may limit the size and operation of a reprocessing facility. Online monitoring techniques using inline detectors can be applied to fuel reprocessing systems to improve the situational awareness as the facility is operating to provide additional indicators of the evolving state of the facility between normal inspection periods, potentially alerting regulators to the need for additional inspection. The Multi-Isotope Process (MIP) Monitor combines medium-resolution gamma detectors with statistical data analysis techniques to monitor reprocessing systems for anomalous conditions resulting from process control issues or malfeasance. Gamma spectra collected from the H-Canyon reprocessing facility were modeled using principal component analysis to demonstrate the efficacy of the MIP Monitor for detecting notional diversion scenarios.

safeguards, nuclear fuel reprocessing, gamma spect↗

Shuttle Imaging Radar-A (SIR-A) data as a complement to Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data

Principal components analysis and supervised classifications were performed on two dates of Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data registered to one date of Shuttle Imaging Radar-A (SIR-A) data in a wheat-growing area of New South Wales, Australia. The purpose was to evaluate SIR-A data as a complement to Landsat MSS data in an agricultural environment. The SIR-A data was filtered using a 7 x 7 pixel moving window median filter. Principal components analysis indicated the SIR-A data were discriminating between trees and agricultural fields. Supervised classifications using wheat, pasture, trees, and idle classes resulted in increased accuracies for wheat and pasture and slightly decreased accuracies for trees and idle for the Landsat MSS/SIR-A registered data sets over the Landsat MSS alone. Overall classification accuracies were unchanged for one date and substantially increased for the other when the SIR-A data were added to the Landsat MSS data.

Henninger, D. L.↗

Big Data in Reciprocal Space: Sliding Fast Fourier Transforms for Determining Periodicity

Significant advances in atomically resolved imaging of crystals and surfaces have occurred in the last decade allowing unprecedented insight into local crystal structures and periodicity. Yet, the analysis of the long-range periodicity from the local imaging data, critical to correlation of functional properties and chemistry to the local crystallography, remains a challenge. Here, we introduce a Sliding Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) filter to analyze atomically resolved images of in-situ grown La5/8Ca3/8MnO3 films. We demonstrate the ability of sliding FFT algorithm to differentiate two sub-lattices, resulting from a mixed-terminated surface. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) of the Sliding FFT dataset reveal the distinct changes in crystallography, step edges and boundaries between the multiple sub-lattices. The method is universal for images with any periodicity, and is especially amenable to atomically resolved probe and electron-microscopy data for rapid identification of the sub-lattices present.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Reionization history and CMB parameter estimation

We study how uncertainty in the reionization history of the universe affects estimates of other cosmological parameters from the Cosmic Microwave Background. We analyze WMAP7 data and synthetic Planck-quality data generated using a realistic scenario for the reionization history of the universe obtained from high-resolution numerical simulation. We perform parameter estimation using a simple sudden reionization approximation, and using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique proposed by Mortonson and Hu. We reach two main conclusions: (1) Adopting a simple sudden reionization model does not introduce measurable bias into values for other parameters, indicating that detailed modeling of reionization is not necessary for the purpose of parameter estimation from future CMB data sets such as Planck. (2) PCA analysis does not allow accurate reconstruction of the actual reionization history of the universe in a realistic case.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Using the optimal combined index weight ratio to improve the probability of anomaly detection in big area additive manufacturing

Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM) of composites requires significant time, energy, and material, so it is critical to reduce production inefficiencies to make functional parts without multiple iterations. Statistical process control coupled with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a powerful technique that provides a quick, computationally inexpensive, and intuitive way for operators to detect defects that form in a manufacturing process without massive datasets. Recently, a combined index that is a weighted sum of the Hotelling's T 2 and squared residual error statistics has been proposed that can be monitored in one chart, improving interpretation accuracy and simplicity. However, the literature does not offer a formal method to optimise the weights. Here, we introduce two new approaches to the traditional weight selection approach using simulated and BAAM image data. Approach 1 uses a theoretically motivated optimum inspired by probabilistic principal component analysis. Approach 2 systematically varies the ratio of the weights to find the optimum. We show that approach 1 delivers optimal anomaly detection performance in select cases while approach 2 fares better in practice. Surprisingly, we also show that choosing a more complex PCA model has a minimal negative impact on anomaly detection performance compared to a more simplistic model.

3-dimensional printing↗

Whose Gas is it anyway? Differentiating the Source of a Large Soil Vapor Plume beneath Two Adjacent Waste Sites - 20487

DOE contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company is currently responsible for conducting groundwater contamination monitoring at several RCRA treatment, storage, and disposal units located on the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington State. The Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill treatment, storage, and disposal unit presents a distinct groundwater monitoring problem because of a large multi-contaminant soil vapor plume beneath it that is a likely source of low-level volatile organic compound groundwater contamination. Adjacent to Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill is the Solid Waste Landfill. Volatile organic compounds are inventory components of both the Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and the Solid Waste Landfill. Therefore, it is possible that both sites could be contributing to the soil vapor plume. For regulatory purposes, it is important to differentiate which site is the primary contributor of volatile organic compounds to the plume. An approach was developed to identify the primary volatile organic compound source of the soil vapor plume beneath Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill. The site conceptual model hypothesis of vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to the dissolved phase in groundwater was tested by a simple mathematical model of vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations at the groundwater/air interface. Once it was shown that vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to groundwater was a valid conceptual model for Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill, spatial and statistical methods were used to determine the primary site contributing to the majority of volatile organic compounds to the soil vapor plume. Average groundwater chloroform, tetrachloroethene, and trichloroethene concentrations from Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill monitoring network wells were plotted on maps of the facilities and immediate vicinities and compared to soil vapor sampling probe locations. Principal component analysis and mixing ratios were used to identify source contributions of each treatment, storage, and disposal unit to the plume. Results of the vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations mathematical model showed that transport phenomena outweigh steady-state equilibria. Estimated vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations were considerably lower than soil vapor measurements. The results indicate that dynamic vadose zone and groundwater factors such as decreased vapor concentrations with depth, vapor dilution from dispersion in the vadose zone, and advective and diffusional volatile organic compound dilution in groundwater result in groundwater volatile organic compound concentrations much less than would be measured under steady-state equilibrium conditions. Site source contribution differentiation by principal component analysis and mixing ratios was inconclusive using actual soil gas data because of the similarity in concentration values in both datasets for Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill. Similar data populations suggest mixing of the vapor contributions from both sites by dispersion through the soil matrix pore spaces. However, when groundwater volatile organic compound data were compared between the Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill monitoring networks, Solid Waste Landfill mean concentrations were higher, suggesting more vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to groundwater at those locations. Simulated volatile organic compound soil vapor and groundwater datasets created to test the methods developed for this study show that the method can be successful in source differentiation when significantly different datasets are compared. This paper will describe a method of testing a conceptual model for vapor-phase contaminant transport to groundwater and for differentiating site sources of contaminants comprising a mixed-constituent soil vapor plume. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Bounding uncertainty in functional data: A case study

Functional data are fast becoming a preeminent source of information across a wide range of industries. A particularly challenging aspect of functional data is bounding uncertainty. In this unique case study, we present our attempts at creating bounding functions for selected applications at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). The first attempt involved a simple extension of functional principal component analysis (fPCA) to incorporate covariates. Though this method was straightforward, the extension was plagued by poor coverage accuracy for the bounding curve. This led to a second attempt utilizing elastic methodology which yielded more accurate coverage at the cost of more complexity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pulmonary lobe segmentation based on ridge surface sampling and shape model fitting

Purpose: Performing lobe-based quantitative analysis of the lung in computed tomography (CT) scans can assist in efforts to better characterize complex diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). While airways and vessels can help to indicate the location of lobe boundaries, segmentations of these structures are not always available, so methods to define the lobes in the absence of these structures are desirable. Methods: The authors present a fully automatic lung lobe segmentation algorithm that is effective in volumetric inspiratory and expiratory computed tomography (CT) datasets. The authors rely on ridge surface image features indicating fissure locations and a novel approach to modeling shape variation in the surfaces defining the lobe boundaries. The authors employ a particle system that efficiently samples ridge surfaces in the image domain and provides a set of candidate fissure locations based on the Hessian matrix. Following this, lobe boundary shape models generated from principal component analysis (PCA) are fit to the particles data to discriminate between fissure and nonfissure candidates. The resulting set of particle points are used to fit thin plate spline (TPS) interpolating surfaces to form the final boundaries between the lung lobes. Results: The authors tested algorithm performance on 50 inspiratory and 50 expiratory CT scans taken from the COPDGene study. Results indicate that the authors' algorithm performs comparably to pulmonologist-generated lung lobe segmentations and can produce good results in cases with accessory fissures, incomplete fissures, advanced emphysema, and low dose acquisition protocols. Dice scores indicate that only 29 out of 500 (5.85%) lobes showed Dice scores lower than 0.9. Two different approaches for evaluating lobe boundary surface discrepancies were applied and indicate that algorithm boundary identification is most accurate in the vicinity of fissures detectable on CT. Conclusions: The proposed algorithm is effective for lung lobe segmentation in absence of auxiliary structures such as vessels and airways. The most challenging cases are those with mostly incomplete, absent, or near-absent fissures and in cases with poorly revealed fissures due to high image noise. However, the authors observe good performance even in the majority of these cases.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗