SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Probability estimates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1975

Impact survival conditions for very large meteorites, with special reference to the legendary Chinguetti meteorite

Contrary to popular belief, very large meteorites can be sufficiently slowed by aerodynamic drag to survive impact with the earth's surface provided that they enter the atmosphere at very low angles. This is a stringent requirement and survival probabilities for large, unguided objects are low; but they are not zero. Based on high-velocity impact experiments and published tabulations of the parameters of shallow angle entry trajectories, we estimate the probability of survival for an iron meteorite approximately the size and shape of the legendary Chinguetti meteorite (100 x 40 x 20-40 m) to be between 0.1 and 1 percent. Together with a limiting estimate of the flux of such bodies encountering the earth, this leads to an expected survival rate of one per (0.1-1.0) billion years on the earth's land surface.

Fudali, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Estimation of incomplete multinomial data

Program estimates cell probabilities for data observed to fall in one of two or more categories when exact category cannot be determined. Data are assumed to be randomly incomplete. Estimation minimizes risk of quadratic loss. Program should be useful in projects where multinomial data is analyzed, but where observations are sometimes incomplete. Program is in FORTRAN IV and Assembler for batch execution on CYBER 173.

Credeur, K. R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Vehicle Detection for RCTA/ANS (Autonomous Navigation System)

Using a stereo camera pair, imagery is acquired and processed through the JPLV stereo processing pipeline. From this stereo data, large 3D blobs are found. These blobs are then described and classified by their shape to determine which are vehicles and which are not. Prior vehicle detection algorithms are either targeted to specific domains, such as following lead cars, or are intensity- based methods that involve learning typical vehicle appearances from a large corpus of training data. In order to detect vehicles, the JPL Vehicle Detection (JVD) algorithm goes through the following steps: 1. Take as input a left disparity image and left rectified image from JPLV stereo. 2. Project the disparity data onto a two-dimensional Cartesian map. 3. Perform some post-processing of the map built in the previous step in order to clean it up. 4. Take the processed map and find peaks. For each peak, grow it out into a map blob. These map blobs represent large, roughly vehicle-sized objects in the scene. 5. Take these map blobs and reject those that do not meet certain criteria. Build descriptors for the ones that remain. Pass these descriptors onto a classifier, which determines if the blob is a vehicle or not. The probability of detection is the probability that if a vehicle is present in the image, is visible, and un-occluded, then it will be detected by the JVD algorithm. In order to estimate this probability, eight sequences were ground-truthed from the RCTA (Robotics Collaborative Technology Alliances) program, totaling over 4,000 frames with 15 unique vehicles. Since these vehicles were observed at varying ranges, one is able to find the probability of detection as a function of range. At the time of this reporting, the JVD algorithm was tuned to perform best at cars seen from the front, rear, or either side, and perform poorly on vehicles seen from oblique angles.

Brennan, Shane↗

NASA NTRS2019

MultiLayer Clustered Sampling (MLCS) technique for near-earth asteroid impact hazard assessment

Because of planetary encounters, the motion of near-Earth asteroids is chaotic and small diﬀerences in the initial conditions tend to diverge exponentially. Linear approximations for propagating orbital uncertainties can lead to inaccurate estimates of the probability of an Earth collision. We present a novel fully nonlinear strategy for estimating the probability of an asteroid impact using sequential Monte Carlo layers. The method ﬁrst explores a low-resolution layer to locate potentially relevant regions. Then, we conduct localized searches on deeper layers with higher resolution. The method retains the accuracy of brute-force Monte Carlo sampling while reducing the computational cost by only sampling relevant regions.

Farnocchia, Davide↗

NASA NTRS2004

Extra Solar Planetary Imaging Coronagraph and Science Requirements for the James Webb Telescope Observatory

1) Extra solar planetary imaging coronagraph. Direct detection and characterization of Jovian planets, and other gas giants, in orbit around nearby stars is a necessary precursor to Terrestrial Planet Finder 0 in order to estimate the probability of Terrestrial planets in our stellar neighborhood. Ground based indirect methods are biased towards large close in Jovian planets in solar systems unlikely io harbor Earthlike planets. Thus to estimate the relative abundances of terrestrial planets and to determine optimal observing strategies for TPF a pathfinder mission would be desired. The Extra-Solar Planetary Imaging Coronagraph (EPIC) is such a pathfinder mission. Upto 83 stellar systems are accessible with a 1.5 meter unobscured telescope and coronagraph combination located at the Earth-Sun L2 point. Incorporating radiometric and angular resolution considerations show that Jovians could be directly detected (5 sigma) in the 0.5 - 1.0 micron band outside of an inner working distance of 5/D with integration times of -10 - 100 hours per observation. The primary considerations for a planet imager are optical wavefront quality due to manufacturing, alignment, structural and thermal considerations. pointing stability and control, and manufacturability of coronagraphic masks and stops to increase the planetary-to- stellar contrast and mitigate against straylight. Previously proposed coronagraphic concepts are driven to extreme tolerances. however. we have developed and studied a mission, telescope and coronagraphic detection concept, which is achievable in the time frame of a Discovery class NASA mission. 2) Science requirements for the James Webb Space Telescope observatory. The James Webb Space Observatory (JWST) is an infrared observatory, which will be launched in 201 1 to an orbit at L2. JWST is a segmented, 18 mirror segment telescope with a diameter of 6.5 meters, and a clear aperture of 25 mA2. The telescope is designed to conduct imaging and spectroscopic observations from 0.6-27 microns. The primary mirror find and understand predicted first light objects, observe galaxies back to their earliest precursors so that we can understand their growth and evolution, unravel the birth and early evolution of stars and planetary systems, and study planetary systems and the origins of life. In this paper we discuss the science goals for JWST in the context of the performance requirements they levy on the observatory.

Clampin, Mark↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Combining Earth System Modeling and Machine Learning to Investigate Volcanic Sulfate Deposition in Polar Ice Cores

Volcanic eruptions emit large amounts of sulfur dioxide (SO2), water, and other chemicals into the atmosphere, both in the troposphere and the stratosphere. Most of the SO2 is converted to sulfate aerosol, which is eventually deposited following long-range transport. The deposits from large eruptions are potentially detectable in ice cores, but there are many cases in which sulfate layers have not been linked to their source volcanoes. As volcanoes can act as significant shocks to the global climate system, we are interested in locating these eruptions in order to increase understanding of the volcanic record. To narrow down the search, we performed 140 simulations of volcanic eruptions using the GISS ModelE Earth system model. We varied the latitude, longitude, Julian day, plume top, plume bottom, and injected SO2 and H2O amounts using a Latin hypercube sampling approach, and analyzed correlations between these parameters and sulfate depositions at ice core sites in Antarctica and Greenland. Using machine learning and parameter estimation, we generated probability distributions and maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters given sulfate deposition data, which can predict latitude with some skill. We find that the volcano latitude and SO2 content are best correlated with sulfate depositions at each pole, while longitude, Julian day, and H2O have small or insignificant effects. Plume altitude and thickness are important because they determine how much of the SO2 is injected into the stratosphere, which has implications for sulfur transport and lifetimes.

Earth system models↗

NASA NTRS1994

Statistical analysis of mesoscale rainfall: Dependence of a random cascade generator on large-scale forcing

Under the theory of independent and identically distributed random cascades, the probability distribution of the cascade generator determines the spatial and the ensemble properties of spatial rainfall. Three sets of radar-derived rainfall data in space and time are analyzed to estimate the probability distribution of the generator. A detailed comparison between instantaneous scans of spatial rainfall and simulated cascades using the scaling properties of the marginal moments is carried out. This comparison highlights important similarities and differences between the data and the random cascade theory. Differences are quantified and measured for the three datasets. Evidence is presented to show that the scaling properties of the rainfall can be captured to the first order by a random cascade with a single parameter. The dependence of this parameter on forcing by the large-scale meteorological conditions, as measured by the large-scale spatial average rain rate, is investigated for these three datasets. The data show that this dependence can be captured by a one-to-one function. Since the large-scale average rain rate can be diagnosed from the large-scale dynamics, this relationship demonstrates an important linkage between the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and the statistical cascade theory of mesoscale rainfall. Potential application of this research to parameterization of runoff from the land surface and regional flood frequency analysis is briefly discussed, and open problems for further research are presented.

Over, Thomas, M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Model-Based Estimation of Sampling-Caused Uncertainty in Aerosol Remote Sensing for Climate Research Applications

To evaluate the effect of sampling frequency on the global monthly mean aerosol optical thickness (AOT), we use 6 years of geographical coordinates of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) L2 aerosol data, daily global aerosol fields generated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model and the chemical transport models Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport, Spectral Radiationtransport Model for Aerosol Species and Transport Model 5, at a spatial resolution between 1.125 deg × 1.125 deg and 2 deg × 3◦: the analysis is restricted to 60 deg S-60 deg N geographical latitude. We found that, in general, the MODIS coverage causes an underestimate of the global mean AOT over the ocean. The long-term mean absolute monthly difference between all and dark target (DT) pixels was 0.01-0.02 over the ocean and 0.03-0.09 over the land, depending on the model dataset. Negative DT biases peak during boreal summers, reaching 0.07-0.12 (30-45% of the global long-term mean AOT). Addition of the Deep Blue pixels tempers the seasonal dependence of the DT biases and reduces the mean AOT difference over land by 0.01-0.02. These results provide a quantitative measure of the effect the pixel exclusion due to cloud contamination, ocean sun-glint and land type has on the MODIS estimates of the global monthly mean AOT. We also simulate global monthly mean AOT estimates from measurements provided by pixel-wide along-track instruments such as the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor and the Cloud-Aerosol LiDAR with Orthogonal Polarization. We estimate the probable range of the global AOT standard error for an along-track sensor to be 0.0005-0.0015 (ocean) and 0.0029-0.01 (land) or 0.5-1.2% and 1.1-4% of the corresponding global means. These estimates represent errors due to sampling only and do not include potential retrieval errors. They are smaller than or comparable to the published estimate of 0.01 as being a climatologically significant change in the global mean AOT, suggesting that sampling density is unlikely to limit the use of such instruments for climate applications at least on a global, monthly scale.

long-term variability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Design and Orbital Debris Mitigation

This presentation reviews four typical spacecraft battery designs and discusses the benefits and drawbacks of each with respect to the NASA Orbital Debris Mitigation Requirements. These requirements address, among other things, accidental explosion probability while on orbit and reentry ground casualty risk. These probabilities, except for post-mission explosion, must be evaluated against quantitative thresholds. Ground casualty risk resulting from reentry can be assessed quantitatively using reentry demisability models. Some missions establish compliance with explosion probability limits using typical component or assembly reliability figures, while others cite more-restrictive certifications or similarity with past successful projects. NASA encourages – and seeks – standards and information exchange to aid end-users in estimating the probability of accidental explosion.

C Ostrom↗

NASA NTRS2015

Probability of Loss of Crew Achievability Studies for NASA's Exploration Systems Development

Over the last few years, NASA has been evaluating various vehicle designs for multiple proposed design reference missions (DRM) beyond low Earth orbit in support of its Exploration Systems Development (ESD) programs. This paper addresses several of the proposed missions and the analysis techniques used to assess the key risk metric, probability of loss of crew (LOC). Probability of LOC is a metric used to assess the safety risk as well as a design requirement. These assessments or studies were categorized as LOC achievability studies to help inform NASA management as to what "ball park" estimates of probability of LOC could be achieved for each DRM and were eventually used to establish the corresponding LOC requirements. Given that details of the vehicles and mission are not well known at this time, the ground rules, assumptions, and consistency across the programs become the important basis of the assessments as well as for the decision makers to understand.

Boyer, Roger L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Magnetic field directional discontinuities. 1: Minimum variance errors

Errors associated with the minimum variance analysis of directional discontinuity normal components were investigated using both computer simulation of discontinuities with controlled properties and the examination of current sheets observed by the Mariner 10 spacecraft. The simulated discontinuities were created by adding fluctuations, represented by isotropic noise, to exactly known but varying (in a plane) magnetic field components. An empirical expression for the magnitude of the error in an estimated discontinuity normal component, relative to the total field across the discontinuity, was derived, as well as other relevant statistical properties. Use of the empirical relation in the analysis of 644 discontinuities observed by Mariner 10 provides a more precise, but probably conservative, estimate of an upper bound on the relative normal component value for tangential discontinuities that can be used to separate rotational from tangential discontinuities in studies using only magnetic field data from a single spacecraft, at least for the interplanetary region of space considered.

Lepping, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Probabilistic Method of Assessing Carbon Accumulation Rate at Imnavait Creek Peatland, Arctic Long Term Ecological Research Station, Alaska

Arctic peatlands are an important part of the global carbon cycle, accumulating atmospheric carbon as organic matter since the Late glacial. Current methods for understanding the changing efficiency of the peatland carbon sink rely on peatlands with an undisturbed stratigraphy. Here we present a method of estimating primary carbon accumulation rate from a site where permafrost processes have either vertically or horizontally translocated nearby carbon-rich sediment out of stratigraphic order. Briefly, our new algorithm estimates the probability of the age of deposition of a random increment of sediment in the core. The method assumes that if sediment age is measured at even depth increments, dates are more likely to occur during intervals of higher accumulation rate and vice versa. Multiplying estimated sedimentation rate by measured carbon density yields carbon accumulation rate. We perform this analysis at the Imnavait Creek Peatland, near the Arctic Long Term Ecological Research network site at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Using classical radiocarbon age modeling, we find unreasonably high rates of carbon accumulation at various Holocene intervals. With our new method, we find accumulation rate changes that are in improved agreement within the context of other sites throughout Alaska and the rest of the Circum-Arctic region.

carbon accumulation;Imnavait;peatlands;permafrost;↗

NASA NTRS2008

An Investigation of the Electrical Short Circuit Characteristics of Tin Whiskers

Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that has a currently unknown probability associated with it. Due to contact resistance electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In this experiment, we study the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From this data we can estimate the probability of an electrical short, as a function of voltage, given that a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors. Also, three tin whiskers grown from the same Space Shuttle Orbiter card guide used in the aforementioned experiment were cross-sectioned and studied using a focused ion beam (FIB). The rare polycrystalline structure seen in the FIB cross section was confirmed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The FIB was also used to cross section two card guides to facilitate the measurement of the grain size to determine that the tin plating on the card guides had a bright finish.

Courey, Karim J.↗

NASA NTRS2008

An Investigation of the Electrical Short Circuit Characteristics of Tin Whiskers

Courey, Karim J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Tin Whisker Electrical Short Circuit Characteristics Part 2

Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that has a currently unknown probability associated with it. Due to contact resistance electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In this experiment, we study the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From this data we can estimate the probability of an electrical short, as a function of voltage, given that a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors. In addition, three tin whiskers grown from the same Space Shuttle Orbiter card guide used in the aforementioned experiment were cross-sectioned and studied using a focused ion beam (FIB).

Courey, Karim J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Fast Goal Recognition Technique Based on Interaction Estimates

Goal Recognition is the task of inferring an actor's goals given some or all of the actor's observed actions. There is considerable interest in Goal Recognition for use in intelligent personal assistants, smart environments, intelligent tutoring systems, and monitoring user's needs. In much of this work, the actor's observed actions are compared against a generated library of plans. Recent work by Ramirez and Geffner makes use of AI planning to determine how closely a sequence of observed actions matches plans for each possible goal. For each goal, this is done by comparing the cost of a plan for that goal with the cost of a plan for that goal that includes the observed actions. This approach yields useful rankings, but is impractical for real-time goal recognition in large domains because of the computational expense of constructing plans for each possible goal. In this paper, we introduce an approach that propagates cost and interaction information in a plan graph, and uses this information to estimate goal probabilities. We show that this approach is much faster, but still yields high quality results.

gola recognition↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer

Methods for the recovery of winds near the surface of the ocean from measurements of the normalized radar backscattering cross section must recognize and make use of the statistics (i.e., the sampling variability) of the backscatter measurements. Radar backscatter values from a scatterometer are random variables with expected values given by a model. A model relates backscatter to properties of the waves on the ocean, which are in turn generated by the winds in the atmospheric marine boundary layer. The effective wind speed and direction at a known height for a neutrally stratified atmosphere are the values to be recovered from the model. The probability density function for the backscatter values is a normal probability distribution with the notable feature that the variance is a known function of the expected value. The sources of signal variability, the effects of this variability on the wind speed estimation, and criteria for the acceptance or rejection of models are discussed. A modified maximum likelihood method for estimating wind vectors is described. Ways to make corrections for the kinds of errors found for the Seasat SASS model function are described, and applications to a new scatterometer are given.

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗