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The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.
A six-segment management model is presented, each segment of which represents a major area in a new product development program. The first segment of the model covers integration of specialist engineers into 'systems requirement definition' or the system engineering documentation process. The second covers preparation of five basic types of 'development program plans.' The third segment covers integration of system requirements, scheduling, and funding of specialist engineering activities into 'work breakdown structures,' 'cost accounts,' and 'work packages.' The fourth covers 'requirement communication' by line organizations. The fifth covers 'performance measurement' based on work package data. The sixth covers 'baseline requirements achievement tracking.'
Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) is an outcome of lean thinking to eliminate waste and increase productivity. PLM is inextricably tied to the systems engineering business philosophy, coupled with a methodology by which personnel, processes and practices, and information technology combine to form an architecture platform for product design, development, manufacturing, operations, and decommissioning. In this model, which is being implemented by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Engineering Directorate, total lifecycle costs are important variables for critical decision-making. With the ultimate goal to deliver quality products that meet or exceed requirements on time and within budget, PLM is a powerful concept to shape everything from engineering trade studies and testing goals, to integrated vehicle operations and retirement scenarios. This briefing will demonstrate how the MSFC Engineering Directorate is implementing PLM as part of an overall strategy to deliver safe, reliable, and affordable space exploration solutions and how that strategy aligns with the Agency and Center systems engineering policies and processes. Sustainable space exploration solutions demand that all lifecycle phases be optimized, and engineering the next generation space transportation system requires a paradigm shift such that digital tools and knowledge management, which are central elements of PLM, are used consistently to maximum effect. Adopting PLM, which has been used by the aerospace and automotive industry for many years, for spacecraft applications provides a foundation for strong, disciplined systems engineering and accountable return on investment. PLM enables better solutions using fewer resources by making lifecycle considerations in an integrative decision-making process.
In this paper we characterize and model the cost of rework in a Component Factory (CF) organization. A CF is responsible for developing and packaging reusable software components. Data was collected on corrective maintenance activities for the Generalized Support Software reuse asset library located at the Flight Dynamics Division of NASA's GSFC. We then constructed a predictive model of the cost of rework using the C4.5 system for generating a logical classification model. The predictor variables for the model are measures of internal software product attributes. The model demonstrates good prediction accuracy, and can be used by managers to allocate resources for corrective maintenance activities. Furthermore, we used the model to generate proscriptive coding guidelines to improve programming, practices so that the cost of rework can be reduced in the future. The general approach we have used is applicable to other environments.
Synthetic natural gas (SNG) is of great interest in reducing fossil energy consumption while maintaining compatibility with existing NG infrastructure and end-use applications equipment. SNG can be produced using clean H 2 generated from renewable or nuclear energy and CO 2 captured from stationary sources or the atmosphere. In this study, we develop an engineering process model of SNG production using Aspen Plus® and production scales reported by the industry. We examine the levelized cost and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of SNG production under various CO 2 supply scenarios. Considering the higher cost of H 2 transportation compared with CO 2 transportation, we assume that CO 2 feedstock is transported via pipeline to the H 2 production location, which is collocated with the SNG plant. We also evaluate the cost of CO 2 captured from the atmosphere, assuming the direct air capture process can occur near the SNG facility. Depending on the CO 2 supply chain, the levelized cost of SNG is estimated to be in the range of $\$45–76$ per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on a higher heating value (HHV) basis. The SNG production cost may be reduced to $\$27–57$/MMBtu-HHV by applying a tax credit available in the United States for low-carbon H 2 production (45V). With a lower electricity price of 3¢/kWh for water electrolysis and accounting for a 45V tax credit, the SNG cost reaches parity with the cost of fossil NG. Depending on the CO 2 supply chain, SNG can reduce life cycle GHG emissions by 52–88% compared with fossil NG.
In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) seeks to make human space exploration feasible; by using available resources from a planet or the moon to produce consumables, parts, and structures that otherwise would be brought from Earth. Producing these in situ reduces the mass of such that must be launched and doing so allows more payload mass' for each mission. The production of oxygen from lunar regolith, for life support and propellant, is one of the tasks being studied under ISRU. NASA is currently funding three processes that have shown technical merit for the production of oxygen from regolith: Molten Salt Electrolysis, Hydrogen Reduction of Ilmenite, and Carbothermal Reduction. The ISRU program is currently developing system models of, the , abovementioned processes to: (1) help NASA in the evaluation process to select the most cost-effective and efficient process for further prototype development, (2) identify key parameters, (3) optimize the oxygen production process, (4) provide estimates on energy and power requirements, mass and volume.of the system, oxygen production rate, mass of regolith required, mass of consumables, and other important parameters, and (5) integrate into the overall end-to-end ISRU system model, which could be integrated with mission architecture models. The oxygen production system model is divided into modules that represent unit operations (e.g., reactor, water electrolyzer, heat exchanger). Each module is modeled theoretically using Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), and will be validated using experimental data from on-going laboratory work. This modularity (plug-n-play) feature of each unit operation allows the use of the same model on different oxygen production systems simulations resulting in comparable results. In this presentation, preliminary results for mass, power, volume will be presented along with brief description of the oxygen production system model.
Wind power is a growing source of energy generation that relies on complex global atmospheric and earth system processes. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run wind energy models with possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States. Changes in mean annual energy production from 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will change and to what extent system costs can be reduced. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, uncertainty in future wind resources can influence the cost of wind energy nearly as much as uncertainty in future system costs.
This is a report on the Operations Revitalization Initiative, part of the ongoing NASA-funded Advanced Multi-Mission Operations Systems (AMMOS) program. We are implementing products that significantly improve efficiency and effectiveness of Mission Operations Systems (MOS) for deep-space missions. We take a multi-mission approach, in keeping with our organization's charter to "provide multi-mission tools and services that enable mission customers to operate at a lower total cost to NASA." Focusing first on architectural fundamentals of the MOS, we review the effort's progress. In particular, we note the use of stakeholder interactions and consideration of past lessons learned to motivate a set of Principles that guide the evolution of the AMMOS. Thus guided, we have created essential patterns and connections (detailed in companion papers) that are explicitly modeled and support elaboration at multiple levels of detail (system, sub-system, element...) throughout a MOS. This architecture is realized in design and implementation products that provide lifecycle support to a Mission at the system and subsystem level. The products include adaptable multi-mission engineering documentation that describes essentials such as operational concepts and scenarios, requirements, interfaces and agreements, information models, and mission operations processes. Because we have adopted a model-based system engineering method, these documents and their contents are meaningfully related to one another and to the system model. This means they are both more rigorous and reusable (from mission to mission) than standard system engineering products. The use of models also enables detailed, early (e.g., formulation phase) insight into the impact of changes (e.g., to interfaces or to software) that is rigorous and complete, allowing better decisions on cost or technical trades. Finally, our work provides clear and rigorous specification of operations needs to software developers, further enabling significant gains in productivity.
Animal movement plays a critical role in disease transmission between farms. However, in the United States, the lack of available animal shipment data, sometimes coupled with a lack of detailed information about farm demographics and characteristics, presents great challenges for epidemic modeling and prediction. In this study, we proposed a new method based on the maximum entropy to generate “synthetic” animal movement networks, considering available statistics about the premises operation type, operation size, and the distance between premises. We illustrated our method for the swine movement networks in Iowa and performed network analyses to gain insights into the swine industry. We then applied the generated networks to a network-based epidemic model to identify potential system vulnerabilities in terms of disease transmission. The model was parameterized for African Swine Fever (ASF) as the US swine industry is quite concerned about this disease. Results show that premises with a central role in the network are more vulnerable to disease outbreaks and play an important role in disease spread. Simulations with outbreaks starting from random farms reveal no significant large outbreaks, indicating the system’s relative robustness against arbitrary disease introductions. However, outbreaks originating from high out-degree farms can lead to large epidemic sizes. This underscores the importance for stakeholders and policymakers to continue improving animal movement records and traceability programs in the US and the value of making that data available to epidemiologists and modelers to better understand risk and inform strategies aimed to cost-effectively prevent and control disease transmission. Our approach could be easily adapted to estimate movement networks in other animal production systems and to inform disease spread models for various infectious diseases.
SAF provides a promising approach to aid the rising jet fuel demand from increased travel around the world and reduce the lifecycle emissions from the aviation sector. Although the feasibility of SAF pathways has been demonstrated through economic and environmental metrics quantification, the models used to quantify these variables have a high degree of variability in terms of accuracy and thereby reliability. To understand how to adopt and commercialize SAF, we need to harmonize these process models and assess metrics and technical limitations related to their production technologies. We find the production cost of SAF using hydro processed fatty acids and esters (HEFA), Fischer-Tropsch (FT), and alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) to be $\$$3-$\$$6/gallon gasoline equivalent (gge) and life cycle emissions to be lower than Jet A, except for ATJ using corn grain (≤25%). HEFA utilizing oil feedstocks has the lowest production cost (~$\$$2.9/gge) and highest jet yield (>150 gge/dry ton), while FT has the largest emission reduction (94%) compared to fossil jet. A unique contribution of this study is a comparative analysis of metrics related to SAF processes across technical, economic, and sustainability aspects. A cross-comparison of these metrics shows HEFA using fats, oils, and grease have the most favorable ratings, while HEFA using algae and ATJ using corn stover have more neutral and unfavorable ratings, respectively. These ratings can be improved by implementing the right combination of practical and technological advancements.
The lessons learned and experience gleaned are described by those who have started to implement the reuse metrics and measurement framework used in controlling the development of common avionics and software for its affiliated aircraft programs. The framework was developed to permit the measurement of the long term cost/benefits resulting from the creation and use of Reusable Software Objects (RSOs). The framework also monitors the efficiency and effectiveness of the Software Reuse Library (SRL). The metrics and measurement framework is defined which was established to allow some determinations and findings to be made relative to software reuse. Seven criteria are discussed which were used to guide the establishment of the proposed reuse framework. Object recapture and creation metrics are explained along with their normalized use in effort, productivity, and quality determination. A single and multiple reuse instance version of a popular cost model is presented which uses these metrics and the measurement scheme proposed to predict the software effort and duration under various reuse assumptions. Studies in using this model to predict actuals taken from the RCI data base of over 1000 completed projects is discussed.
Cost and Performance System (CAPS) is an automated system used from the planning phase through implementation to analysis and documentation. Data is retrievable or available for analysis of cost versus performance anomalies. CAPS provides a uniform system across intra- and international elements. A common system is recommended throughout an entire cost or profit center. Data can be easily accumulated and aggregated into higher levels of tracking and reporting of cost and performance.The level and quality of performance or productivity is indicated in the CAPS model and its process. The CAPS model provides the necessary decision information and insight to the principal investigator/project engineer for a successful project management experience. CAPS provides all levels of management with the appropriate detailed level of data.
Under a Phase II SBIR contract, Kennedy and Lumina Decision Systems, Inc., jointly developed the Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis Modeling (SCRAM) system, based on a version of Lumina's flagship software product, Analytica(R). Acclaimed as "the best single decision-analysis program yet produced" by MacWorld magazine, Analytica is a "visual" tool used in decision-making environments worldwide to build, revise, and present business models, minus the time-consuming difficulty commonly associated with spreadsheets. With Analytica as their platform, Kennedy and Lumina created the SCRAM system in response to NASA's need to identify the importance of major delays in Shuttle ground processing, a critical function in project management and process improvement. As part of the SCRAM development project, Lumina designed a version of Analytica called the Analytica Design Engine (ADE) that can be easily incorporated into larger software systems. ADE was commercialized and utilized in many other developments, including web-based decision support.
Analysis-based means of compliance for airplane and engine certification, commonly known as "Certification by Analysis" (CbA), provides a strong motivation for the development and maturation of current and future flight and engine modeling technology. The many benefits of CbA include streamlined product certification testing programs at lower cost while maintaining equivalent levels of safety. Flight and engine testing represent a substantial cost to airplane and engine development programs. This report provides a far-reaching vision for CbA and presents a research roadmap for computational technology development to enable CbA.
Hall thruster systems based on commercial product lines can potentially lead to lower cost electric propulsion (EP) systems for deep space science missions. A 4.5-kW SPT-140 Hall thruster presently under qualification testing by SSL leverages the substantial heritage of the SPT-100 being flown on Russian and US commercial satellites. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory is exploring the use of commercial EP systems, including the SPT-140, for deep space science missions, and initiated a program to evaluate the SPT-140 in the areas of low power operation and thruster operating life. A qualification model SPT-140 designated QM002 was evaluated for operation and plasma properties along channel centerline, from 4.5 kW to 0.8 kW. Additional testing was performed on a development model SPT-140 designated DM4 to evaluate operation with a Moog proportional flow control valve (PFCV). The PFCV was commanded by an SSL engineering model PPU-140 Power Processing Unit (PPU). Performance measurements on QM002 at 0.8 kW discharge power were 50 mN of thrust at a total specific impulse of 1250 s, a total thruster efficiency of 0.38, and discharge current oscillations of under 3% of the mean current. Steady-state operation at 0.8 kW was demonstrated during a 27 h firing. The SPT-140 DM4 was operated in closed-loop control of the discharge current with the PFCV and PPU over discharge power levels of 0.8-4.5 kW. QM002 and DM4 test data indicate that the SPT-140 design is a viable candidate for NASA missions requiring power throttling down to low thruster input power.
Abstract The Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), has a very high climate sensitivity driven by strong positive cloud feedbacks. To evaluate the simulated clouds in the present climate and characterize their response with climate warming, a clustering approach is applied to three independent satellite cloud products and a set of coupled climate simulations. Using k -means clustering with a Wasserstein distance cost function, a set of typical cloud configurations is derived for the satellite cloud products. Using satellite simulator output, the model clouds are classified into the observed cloud regimes in both current and future climates. The model qualitatively reproduces the observed cloud configurations in the historical simulation using the same time period as the satellite observations, but it struggles to capture the observed heterogeneity of clouds which leads to an overestimation of the frequency of a few preferred cloud regimes. This problem is especially apparent for boundary layer clouds. Those low-level cloud regimes also account for much of the climate response in the late twenty-first century in four shared socioeconomic pathway simulations. The model reduces the frequency of occurrence of these low-cloud regimes, especially in tropical regions under large-scale subsidence, in favor of regimes that have weaker cloud radiative effects.
There is an ever-increasing need to achieve greater efficiency in the operation of the Deep Space Network (DSN), i.e., increased productivity at reduced cost. One of the tools used in the course of a planning workshop on this subject was a methodology for budget allocation applicable to long-range planning. This article presents a model for analysis of the TDA budget allocation. For the 1994 through 1999 period, the percentage of the total TDA budget allocated to capacity and capability is being cut in half, whereas the percentage spent on efficiency of delivery will be increasing.
Gasification of waste feedstock such as biomass, waste plastics suffers from high tar yields during hydrogen-rich syngas production. The presence of tars result in lower quality syngas, lower syngas yields, reactor blockage, reactor down time, and costly maintenance. Therefore, removal of tar from syngas during gasification is essential. Catalytic reforming of tars via in-situ syngas cleanup is an effective way of mitigating tars. This work explores the possibility of microwave-assisted catalytic dry reforming of tars for syngas production. Further, due to its chemical complexity, toluene, which is one of the main tar constituents, could be used as a model tar compound. Toluene dry reforming was studied using the Fe/Al 2 O 3 catalyst under CO 2 under the temperature range of 400–700 °C. The toluene reforming reaction was conducted using microwave and conventional thermal reactors. Under microwave irradiation, CO 2 and toluene conversions are boosted to 80% at 500 °C. Hydrogen and carbon monoxide yields were approximately five times and ten times higher in the microwave reactor at 500 °C, respectively, compared to the productions obtained in the conventional fixed-bed reactor at 700 °C. Filamentous carbon was also produced as a valuable side product to improve the economy of this process and such value-added carbon was only observed in the microwave reactor. Three reaction pathways were observed during microwave reaction: the toluene decomposition produces an initial hydrogen and carbon deposit on the catalyst; the formation of methane and benzene suggests toluene hydrodemethylation as a secondary reaction; and toluene hydrogenolysis forms light alkanes such as methane, and through reforming reaction under CO 2 to syngas.