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NASA NTRS2014

NASA-DoD Lower Process Temperature Lead-Free Solder Project Overview

This project is a follow-on effort to the Joint Council on Aging AircraftJoint Group on Pollution Prevention (JCAAJG-PP) Pb-free Solder Project and NASA-DoD Lead-Free Electronics Project which were the first projects to test the reliability of Pb-free solder joints against the requirements of the aerospace and military community. This effort would continue to build on the results from the JCAAJG-PP Lead-Free Solder Project and NASA-DoD Lead-Free Electronics Project while focusing on a particular failure mechanism currently plaguing Pb-free assemblies, pad cratering.The NASA-DoD Lead-Free Electronics Project confirmed that pad cratering is one of the dominant failure modes that occur in various board level reliability tests, especially under dynamic loading. Pad Cratering is a latent defect that may occur during assembly, rework, and post assembly handling and testing.

electronics↗

NASA NTRS2015

Project Morpheus: Lean Development of a Terrestrial Flight Testbed for Maturing NASA Lander Technologies

NASA's Morpheus Project has developed and tested a prototype planetary lander capable of vertical takeoff and landing that is designed to serve as a testbed for advanced spacecraft technologies. The lander vehicle, propelled by a Liquid Oxygen (LOX)/Methane engine and sized to carry a 500kg payload to the lunar surface, provides a platform for bringing technologies from the laboratory into an integrated flight system at relatively low cost. In 2012, Morpheus began integrating the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) sensors and software onto the vehicle in order to demonstrate safe, autonomous landing and hazard avoidance. From the beginning, one of goals for the Morpheus Project was to streamline agency processes and practices. The Morpheus project accepted a challenge to tailor the traditional NASA systems engineering approach in a way that would be appropriate for a lower cost, rapid prototype engineering effort, but retain the essence of the guiding principles. This paper describes the tailored project life cycle and systems engineering approach for the Morpheus project, including the processes, tools, and amount of rigor employed over the project's multiple lifecycles since the project began in fiscal year (FY) 2011.

Devolites, Jennifer L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Space Synthetic Biology Project

Synthetic biology is an effort to make genetic engineering more useful by standardizing sections of genetic code. By standardizing genetic components, biological engineering will become much more similar to traditional fields of engineering, in which well-defined components and subsystems are readily available in markets. Specifications of the behavior of those components and subsystems can be used to model a system which incorporates them. Then, the behavior of the novel system can be simulated and optimized. Finally, the components and subsystems can be purchased and assembled to create the optimized system, which most often will exhibit behavior similar to that indicated by the model. The Space Synthetic Biology project began in 2012 as a multi-Center effort. The purpose of this project was to harness Synthetic Biology principals to enable NASA's missions. A central target for application was to Environmental Control & Life Support (ECLS). Engineers from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC's) ECLS Systems Development Branch (ES62) were brought into the project to contribute expertise in operational ECLS systems. Project lead scientists chose to pursue the development of bioelectrochemical technologies to spacecraft life support. Therefore, the ECLS element of the project became essentially an effort to develop a bioelectrochemical ECLS subsystem. Bioelectrochemical systems exploit the ability of many microorganisms to drive their metabolisms by direct or indirect utilization of electrical potential gradients. Whereas many microorganisms are capable of deriving the energy required for the processes of interest (such as carbon dioxide (CO2) fixation) from sunlight, it is believed that subsystems utilizing electrotrophs will exhibit smaller mass, volume, and power requirements than those that derive their energy from sunlight. In the first 2 years of the project, MSFC personnel conducted modeling, simulation, and conceptual design efforts to assist the project in selecting the best approaches to the application of bioelectrochemical technologies to ECLS. Figure 1 shows results of simulation of charge transport in an experimental system. Figure 2 shows one of five conceptual designs for ECLS subsystems based on bioelectrochemical reactors. Also during the first 2 years, some work was undertaken to gather fundamental data (conductivities, overpotentials) relevant to the modeling efforts.

Howard, David↗

NASA NTRS2018

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Overview of Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Project

The objective of the Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) projects is to mature a 3-D Woven Thermal Protection System (TPS) to Technical Readiness Level (TRL) 6 to support future NASA missions to destinations such as Venus and Saturn. Destinations that have extreme entry environments with heat fluxes up to 5000 watts per square centimeter and pressures up to 5 atmospheres, entry environments that NASA has not flown since Pioneer-Venus and Galileo. The scope of the project is broad and can be split into roughly four areas, Manufacturing/Integration, Structural Testing and Analysis, Thermal Testing and Analysis and Documentation. Manufactruing/Integration covers from raw materials, piece part fabrication to final integration on a 1-meter base diameter 45-degree sphere cone Engineering Test Unit (ETU). A key aspect of the project was to transfer as much of the manufacturing technology to industry in preparation to support future mission infusion. The forming, infusion and machining approaches were transferred to Fiber Materials Inc. and FMI then fabricated the piece parts from which the ETU was manufactured. The base 3D-woven material consists of a dual layer weave with a high density outer layer to manage recession in the system and a lower density, lower thermal conductivity inner layer to manage the heat load. At the start of the project it was understood that due to weaving limitations the heat shield was going to be manufactured from a series of tiles. And it was recognized that the development of a seam solution that met the structural and thermal requirements of the system was going to be the most challenging aspect of the project. It was also recognized that the seam design would drive the final integration approach and therefore the integration of the ETU was kept in-house within NASA. A final seam concept has been successfully developed and implemented on the ETU and will be discussed. The structural testing and analysis covers from characterization of the different layers of the infused material as functions of weave direction and temperature, to sub-component level testing such as 4-pt bend testing at sub-ambient and elevated temperature. ETU test results are used to validate the structural models developed using the element and sub-component level tests. Given the seam has to perform both structurally and aerothermally during entry a novel 4-pt bend test fixture was developed allowing articles to be tested while the front surface is heated with a laser. These tests are intended to establish the system's structural capability during entry. A broad range of aerothermal tests (arcjet tests) are being performed to develop material response models for predicting the required TPS thickness to meet a mission's needs and to evaluate failure modes. These tests establish the capability of the system and assure robustness of the system during entry. The final aspect of the project is to develop a comprehensive Design and Data Book such that a future mission will have the information necessary to adopt the technology. This presentation will provide an overview and status of the project and describe the status of the tehnology maturation level for the inner and outer planet as well as earth entry sample return missions.

Ellerby, Don↗

NASA NTRS2020

AERoBOND Project Summary

Under NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) project, the Adhesive-Free Bonding of Complex Composites (AERoBOND) project investigated off-stoichiometric epoxy polymers for fast, reliable assembly of epoxy matrix composite structures. The project goal was to demonstrate feasibility of the AERoBOND joining method by demonstrating mechanical properties greater than 80% of conventional co-cured materials while reducing structure weight by 1%. The project consisted of three convergent research areas: material and process development, systems analysis, and material and process modeling. Material and process development was the largest component of AERoBOND with approximately 6 FTE and 1WYE of support to formulate and characterize new resins, prepare carbon fiber prepregs, fabricate laminates, measure mechanical properties, analyze failure results, and select material and process improvements. The systems analysis activity estimated the potential reduction in part count and aircraft weight by comparing models of composite wing boxes with no fasteners (co-cured structure), fasteners in major joints (co-cured stringers), and fasteners in all joints. The materials and process modeling activity included a molecular model of the AERoBOND materials system to predict mechanical properties of resins with offset stoichiometry and a process model to predict the effect of resin formulation and processing conditions on the extent of mixing and degree of cure in a finished joint. As the number of airline passenger trips doubles in the next 20 years (IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, April 2019), the increased demand for new commercial aircraft is now the single greatest technical challenge to the airframe manufacturing industry. To meet efficiency requirements, new aircraft must be fabricated primarily from high performance structural composites, but manufacturing processes are inherently slow with the largest bottleneck attributed to assembly and installation of fasteners (NASA/TM–2019-220428). Manufactures of commercial transport aircraft are compelled to install more than 100,000 redundant fasteners into bonded joints to prevent failures due to unpredictable weak bonds. In structural adhesive bonds, the interface between adherend and adhesive is nearly two-dimensional making it susceptible to minute quantities of contamination, which can cause weak bonds. Currently, bond strength assessment is only possible through destructive testing (i.e., breaking the joint). For these reasons, regulatory organizations such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) often require redundant load paths in secondary-bonded, primary-structures to alleviate concerns with bond performance. The AERoBOND process enables reflow of matrix resin during assembly to eliminate the material discontinuity at the interface, thereby eliminating the dependence of mechanical performance on interfacial adhesion. The AERoBOND joint is equivalent to the interlaminar region obtained during a co-cure process, so joint performance depends on the cohesive properties of the matrix resin. Conventional co-cured structures, although too costly and complex for large-scale manufacturing, are trusted by manufacturers and regulators, and are certified for flight with few or no redundant fasteners.Systems analysis performed on a composite wing model at the scale of a single-aisle commercial transport aircraft indicated that >20,000 redundant fasteners per wing could be eliminated by implementing the AERoBOND joining method. A total weight reduction of 15% was predicted in a wing box by eliminating fasteners and thinning components that must no longer support localized fastener loads and accommodate fastener dimensions. Interlaminar shear fracture toughness measured by the end-notched flexure test was greater than 1 kJ/m2 (nearly 140% of the co-cured benchmark property), which is greatly in excess of the project goals for mechanical properties. Testing was planned to measure interlaminar tensile fracture toughness as well as interlaminar tensile and shear strengths using the same AERoBOND configuration, but was delayed due to closure of LaRC facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The AERoBOND process model is partially validated and available for experimental use. It allows the user to input AERoBOND process parameters such as material composition, laminate configuration, and cure cycle to predict the final cure state of the AERoBOND joint. A preliminary, multi-scale material model was developed to predict AERoBOND joint mechanical properties (stiffness and strength) based on the cure state of the joint provided by the process model. The timing for transition of this technology within NASA is excellent as NASA initiates new enduring projects to address composites manufacturing rate challenges. AERoBOND technology is well suited to AAVP/AATT objectives for rapid manufacturing of a composite wing. A minimal effort (1 FTE/$15k procurement/0 WYE) is proposed in FY21 to continue a minor mechanical testing effort and maintain a SAA with ASX composites to develop commercial quality prepreg material. An RFI with the composites industry is suggested to quantify the technology gap between the current TRL and the TRL needed for transition to industry. A moderate effort [3-4 FTE/$150k/1 WYE (~$115k)] is proposed in FY22 for the “high rate composites manufacturing” project currently in planning. The partnership with ASX Composites will be expanded to produce material for sub-element/element-scale “panel-off” activities. Industry partnerships with airframe manufacturers is an expected component to explore damage tolerance and environmental stability. Further development of multi-scale modeling tools (process model, meso-scale model, and molecular model) is planned to enhance and deliver tools for rapid manufacturing infusion.

Frank Louis Palmieri↗

NASA NTRS2019

Requirements Development and Management on the Psyche Project

In January 2017, Psyche was one of two mission concepts selected by NASA for flight as part of the 14th Discovery mission competition. The project has been staffing up and maturing the spacecraft, instrument and mission system baseline designs on the path towards a 2022 launch. During much of 2018, the Project has been executing the lifecycle stage called Phase B, “Preliminary Design and Technology Completion,” one key element of which is the development and management of requirements at various levels. In the case of the Psyche project, this process has been particularly unique for several reasons. The project utilizes a Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) Chassis from Space Systems Loral (SSL), a high volume manufacturer of commercial geostationary (GEO) telecom spacecraft based on the 1300 satellite bus. While SSL has an extensive, well-vetted set of requirements based on their very successful Earth-orbiting product line, translating that heritage to a deep space science mission required special care. In addition to the differences associated with the deep space environment and longer communication times, new interfaces had to be incorporated. While a substantial portion of the Flight System consists of the SEP Chassis, there were several new interfaces within various subsystems between SSL components and those provided by JPL and other contractors. Managing these interfaces through requirements at a relatively higher level than normally seen on internal or external builds proved challenging. Finally, the Psyche spacecraft plans to host the flight terminal of the Deep Space Optical Communications (DSOC) technology demonstration, which is itself a separate project with its own requirements that must be flowed down and managed. This paper will present an overview of the requirement development and management process for the Psyche project. It will discuss in detail the various challenges summarized above, the methods and decisions chosen to address them, and evaluate their overall effectiveness at this stage in the project.

Elkins-Tanton, Linda T.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Tamsin L. Edwards↗

NASA NTRS2022

Specific Power and Efficiency Projections of Electric Machines and Circuit Protection Exploration for Aircraft Applications

The purpose of this paper is to generate specific power and efficiency projections through the year 2050 for electric machines for aircraft applications. A general literature review was performed to identify the types of electric machines that are commonly used and which types have the biggest potential for future aircraft applications due to their high specific power and efficiency. A database with historical data was built to include parameters such as weight [kg], rated power [kW], specific power [kW/kg], RPM, efficiency, year, motor cooling type, application type and motor type to allow for trend identification and accurate projections. Once the data was gathered, multiple curve fits on the historical data were generated and extrapolated to produce the projections for specific power according to conservative, nominal and aggressive projection scenarios. A different process was followed for the efficiency projections due to the scattered nature of the data. A state of the art (SoA) value for efficiency was identified through literature review and was used to create the conservative, nominal and aggressive projections for the time frames of 2030, 2040, and 2050. The efficiency and the specific power projections of EMs for 2050 are 0.989 and 50kW/kg respectively. This paper will also be examining circuit protection as it is an additional component of electric powertrains.

electric machines↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) Project: A Review

The Southern Ocean serves as the primary gateway through which the intermediate, deep, and bottom waters of the ocean interact with the surface ocean (and thus the atmosphere), and it has a profound influence on the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon and heat as well as nutrient resupply from the abyss to the surface. Yet it has been the least observed and understood region of the world ocean. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) project was implemented in 2014 with a goal to help remedy this deficit in observations and understanding. The SOCCOM project is based on two major advances that have the potential to transform understanding of the Southern Ocean. The first is the development of new biogeochemical sensors mounted on autonomous profiling floats that allow sampling of ocean biogeochemistry in 3-dimensional space. Floats may detect processes with a temporal resolution that ranges from hours to years. The second is that the climate modeling community finally has the computational resources and physical understanding to develop fully coupled climate models that can represent crucial, mesoscale processes in the Southern Ocean, as well as corresponding models that assimilate observations to produce a state estimate. The observational component, based on deployment of profiling floats with oxygen, nitrate, pH and bio-optical sensors, is generating vast amounts of new biogeochemical data that provide a year-round view of the Southern Ocean from the surface to 2000 m. The modeling effort is applying these observations and enhancing our understanding of the current ocean, and reducing uncertainty in projections of future carbon and nutrient cycles and climate. After nine years of operation, including a project renewal in the sixth year, the SOCCOM project has deployed more than 260 profiling floats. These floats have collected over 27,000 vertical profiles throughout the Southern Ocean. A data-assimilating biogeochemical state estimate model has been implemented. Here, the design of the SOCCOM project is reviewed and the scientific results that have been obtained are described. The project’s capability to help meet the observing system priorities outlined for a notional UN Decade for Ocean Sciences Southern Ocean observing system is assessed.

Jorge L. Sarmiento↗

NASA NTRS2023

The SunPy Project: An Interoperable Ecosystem for Solar Data Analysis

The SunPy Project is a community of scientists and software developers creating an ecosystem of Python packages for solar physics. The project includes the sunpy core package as well as a set of affiliated packages. The sunpy core package provides general purpose tools to access data from different providers, read image and time series data, and transform between commonly used coordinate systems. Affiliated packages perform more specialized tasks that do not fall within the more general scope of the sunpy core package. In this article, we give a high-level overview of the SunPy Project, how it is broader than the sunpy core package, and how the project curates and fosters the affiliated package system. We demonstrate how components of the SunPy ecosystem, including sunpy and several affiliated packages, work together to enable multi-instrument data analysis workflows. We also describe members of the SunPy Project and how the project interacts with the wider solar physics and scientific Python communities. Finally, we discuss the future direction and priorities of the SunPy Project.

Solar physics↗

NASA NTRS2020

Integrated Concurrent Engineering Teams for Increased Efficiency in Flight Projects

A highly integrated Concurrent Engineering Team (CET) within a flight project evolves in its function and has the potential to provide many benefits through the project lifecycle. The benefits include superior systems-oriented design products, as well as overall improved project efficiency and higher-performing interpersonal relationships within the project. If physically integrated, this can manifest as a Concurrent Engineering Center (CEC) centrally located within a project’s physical office space. Here we discuss the process to establish and maintain a tightly integrated engineering and design team for providing highly streamlined service to the project, including a cost/benefits analysis discussion.

Flight Project↗

NASA NTRS2020

Integrated Concurrent Engineering Teams for Increased Efficiency in Flight Projects

Flight Project↗

NASA NTRS2002

Developing a corss-project support system during mission operations: Deep Space 1 extended mission flight control

NASA is focusing on small, low-cost spacecraft for both planetary and earth science missions. Deep Space 1 (DS1) was the first mission to be launched by the NMP. The New Millennium Project (NMP) is designed to develop and test new technology that can be used on future science missions with lower cost and risk. The NMP is finding ways to reduce cost not only in development, but also in operations. DS 1 was approved for an extended mission, but the budget was not large, so the project began looking into part time team members shared with other projects. DS1 launched on October 24, 1998, in it's primary mission it successfully tested twelve new technologies. The extended mission started September 18, 1999 and ran through the encounter with Comet Borrelly on September 22,2001. The Flight Control Team (FCT) was one team that needed to use part time or multi mission people. Circumstances led to a situation where for the few months before the Borrelly encounter in September of 2001 DSl had no certified full time Flight Control Engineers also known as Aces. This paper examines how DS 1 utilized cross-project support including the communication between different projects, and the how the tools used by the Flight Control Engineer fit into cross-project support.

New Millennium Project NMP DS flight control↗

NASA NTRS2021

Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community.

crop yield projections↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP)

Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These and other influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue and potentially strengthen in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread of near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emission pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of 5, from −0.3 to −1.5 W m−2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealised aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (Africa and the Middle East, East Asia, North America and Europe, and South Asia) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission locations and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the shared socioeconomic pathways and are intended to be performed with 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable the analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes, storms, and air quality.

anthropogenic aerosol emissions↗

NASA NTRS1977

A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs

A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

Remer, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Projecting manpower to attain quality

The resulting model is useful as a projection tool but must be validated in order to be used as an on-going software cost engineering tool. A procedure is developed to facilitate the tracking of model projections and actual data to allow the model to be tuned. Finally, since the model must be used in an environment of overlapping development activities on a progression of software elements in development and maintenance, a manpower allocation model is developed for use in a steady state development/maintenance environment. In these days of soaring software costs it becomes increasingly important to properly manage a software development project. One element of the management task is the projection and tracking of manpower required to perform the task. In addition, since the total cost of the task is directly related to the initial quality built into the software, it becomes a necessity to project the development manpower in a way to attain that quality. An approach to projecting and tracking manpower with quality in mind is described.

Rone, K. Y.↗