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At least 199 records · Page 11

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for localized intense rainfall events) observed in the region can be a key factor for managed ecosystems and water management and could also lead to more incidence of severe urban flooding. The results could be used to assess both mitigation and adaptation alternatives to reduce vulnerabilities in managed ecosystems (agricultural and urban) and water resources.

agriculture↗

Space Based Measurements for Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: a New Tool for Monitoring Our Environment

Fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and other human activities are now adding almost 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere each year. Interestingly, as these emissions have increased over time, natural "sinks" in land biosphere and oceans have absorbed roughly half of this CO2, reducing the rate of atmospheric buildup by a half. Measurements of the increasing acidity (pH) of seawater indicate that the ocean absorbs one quarter of this CO2. Another quarter is apparently being absorbed by the land biosphere, but the identity and location of these natural land CO2 "sinks" are still unknown. The existing ground-based greenhouse gas monitoring network provides an accurate record of the atmospheric buildup, but still does not have the spatial resolution or coverage needed to identify or quantify CO2 sources and sinks.

OCO-2↗

The Heliopause Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) Design, Trades, and Analyses Performed in a Two Year NASA Investigation of Electric Sail Propulsion Systems

The Heliopause Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) was one of the seven total Phase II NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) that was down-selected in 2015 for continued funding and research. In Phase I our team learned that a spacecraft propelled by an Electric Sail (E-Sail) can travel great astronomical distances, such as to the Heliopause region of the solar system (approx. 100 to 120 AU) in approximately one quarter of the time (10 years) versus the time it took the Voyager spacecraft launched in 1977 (36 years). The completed work within the Phase II NIAC funded effort builds upon the work that was done in the Phase I NIAC and is focused on: 1) Testing of plasma interaction with a charged wire in a MSFC simulated solar environment vacuum test chamber. 2) Development of a Particle-in-Cell (PIC) models that are validated in the plasma testing and used to extrapolate to the E-Sail propulsion system design. 3) Conceptual design of a Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) spacecraft developed to showcase E-Sail propulsion systems. 4) Down selection of both: a) Materials for a multi km length conductor and, b) Best configuration of the proposed conductor deployment subsystem. This paper will document the findings to date (June, 2017) of the above focused areas.

Wiegmann, Bruce M.↗

Managing Fire Risk During Drought: The Influence of Certification and El Nino on Fire-Driven Forest Conversion for Oil Palm in Southeast Asia

Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce "sustainable" palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance isunclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009,forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident activefire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Nino and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Nino events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75% and 66% lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Nino events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification standards with satellite monitoring capabilities will be critical to realize sustainable palm oil production and meet industry commitments to zero forestation.

Noojipady, Praveen↗

Experimental and Computational Study of Tones Occurring with a Coaxial Nozzle

The source of audible tones occurring with a coaxial nozzle in a range of low Mach numbers is explored experimentally as well as computationally. The hardware is comprised of an inner and an outer nozzle, without a center-body, that are held together by a set of four struts. With increasing jet Mach number (M(sub j)), first a tone occurred at about 2550 Hz around M(sub j)=0.06. At higher values of M(sub j) a tone at 5200 Hz dominated the noise spectra. The corresponding nondimensional frequency, based on effective thickness of the inner nozzle lip and jet exit velocity, turned out to be about 0.2, a value characteristic of Karmann vortex shedding. Thus, vortex shedding from the inner nozzle lip could be linked to the tones. From a comparison of the acoustic wavelengths and the nozzle dimensions, it was inferred that the vortex shedding excited a one-quarter-wave resonance within the divergent section of either the inner nozzle or the outer nozzle. This led to the generation of the sharp tones.

nozzle↗

Impact of Assimilating AIRS Cloud Cleared Radiances on the Analysis and Forecast of Polar Lows

Previous work by this team (Reale et al. 2018) has found that the current assimilation of AIRS (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder) radiances on a regularly spaced thinning grid is suboptimal, probably because of horizontal error correlation over meteorologically inactive areas. Moreover, cloud-cleared radiances appear to be a better product than clear-sky radiances, but need to be assimilated at a much lower density globally, because of the higher information content. Specifically: 1. Assimilation of AIRS cloud-cleared radiances at a density of about one quarter of the clear-sky radiances improves global forecast skill; 2. An adaptive thinning strategy assimilating cloud-cleared radiances at reduced density globally except around tropical cyclones (TCs), leads to substantial improvement in the structure and intensity forecast of TCs without damaging global skill.

Polar Low↗

Sensitivity of Low Tropospheric Arctic Temperatures to Assimilation of AIRS Cloud-Cleared Radiances: Impact on Mid-Latitude Waves

In this work, it is shown that the prediction of individual mid-latitude waves in a global forecast framework is sensitive to the initialization over the Arctic and may benefit from the assimilation of cloud-cleared radiances (CCRs) from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), particularly in partially cloudy regions with active dynamics. This study shows that the assimilation of AIRS CCRs over the Arctic Ocean, providing more information than clear-sky radiances from areas affected by broken low-level stratus clouds, produces slightly cooler low-level temperatures and lower mid-tropospheric height through hydrostatic adjustment. In areas that are data void, as observed by clear-sky radiances, and dynamically active, the assimilation of CCRs provides valuable information that can improve the representation of individual baroclinic waves and their subsequent forecasts. The modifications induced by the assimilation of AIRS CCRs over the Arctic Ocean slightly modifies the geopotential height gradients between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes, leading to potential improvements in the forecast of individual baroclinic waves as is shown through a case study. The observing system experiment (OSE) is performed with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation and forecast system during boreal autumn 2014. AIRS CCRs are thinned to approximately one quarter the density of operationally assimilated AIRS radiances, consistent with their higher information content. Global, 6-hourly analyses are produced from 1 September to 10 November 2014 and 7-day forecasts are initialized at 0000 UTC daily. Since the CCR methodology is widely applicable, these findings are also relevant to other infrared sensors.

Cloud-clearing↗

Small Volcanic Vents of the Tharsis Volcanic Province, Mars

Distributed-style volcanism is an end member of terrestrial volcanism that produces clusters of small volcanoes when isolated magma bodies ascend from broad magma source regions. Volcano clusters can develop over millions of years, one volcano at a time, and can be used to infer unobserved geologic phenomena, including subsurface stresses and cracks during eruption periods. The Tharsis Volcanic Province covers approximately one quarter of the Martian surface and hosts a large concentration of small volcanoes that formed from distributed volcanism. We present a catalog of 1106 small volcanic vents identified within Tharsis Volcanic Province. This catalog includes morphologic measurements for each cataloged vent. Vent lengths range from 71 m to 51 km, widths range from 40 m to 3.1 km, and 90% of vents have lengths at least 1.5 times their widths. Additionally, 90% of edifices associated with vents have topographic prominences <100 m. Vents are found throughout Tharsis, though they generally form clusters near large volcanoes or among large graben sets. Older regions with volcanic eruption ages of >1 Ga are found at the Tharsis periphery in the Tempe-Mareotis region and Syria Planum. Vents in the Tharsis interior have reported ages <500 Ma. Regional trends in vent orientation and intervent alignment are dependent on nearby central volcanoes and fossae. We use these findings to hypothesize that within the most recent 500 Ma, magma was present under and to the east of the Tharsis Montes and that some of this magma erupted and built hundreds of small volcanoes in this region.

Distributed volcanism↗

Increasing anthropogenic methane emissions arise equally from agricultural and fossil fuel sources

Climate stabilization remains elusive, with increased greenhouse gas concentrations already increasing global average surface temperatures 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel use, deforestation, and other anthropogenic sources reached ~ 43 billion metric tonnes in 2019 (Friedlingstein et al 2019, Jackson et al 2019). Storms, floods, and other extreme weather events displaced a record 7 million people in the first half of 2019 (IDMC 2019). When global mean surface temperature four million years ago was 2°C–3°C warmer than today (a likely temperature increase before the end of the century), ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica melted and parts of East Antarctica’s ice retreated, causing sea levels to rise 10–20 m (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Methane (CH4) emissions have contributed almost one quarter of the cumulative radiative forcings for CO2, CH4, and N2O (nitrous oxide) combined since 1750 (Etminan et al 2016). Although methane is far less abundant in the atmosphere than CO2, it absorbs thermal infrared radiation much more efficiently and, in consequence, has a global warming potential (GWP) ~86 times stronger per unit mass than CO2 on a 20-year timescale and 28- times more powerful on a 100-year time scale (IPCC 2014). Global average methane concentrations in the atmosphere reached ~1875 parts per billion (ppb) at the end of 2019, more than two-and-a-half times preindustrial levels (Dlugokencky 2020). The largest methane sources include anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, waste, and the extraction and use of fossil fuels as well as natural emissions from wetlands, freshwater systems, and geological sources (Kirschke et al 2013, Saunois et al 2016a, Ganesan et al 2019). Here, we summarize new estimates of the global methane budget based on the analysis of Saunois et al (2020) for the year 2017, the last year of the new Global Methane Budget and the most recent year data are fully available. We compare these estimates to mean values for the reference ‘stabilization’ period of 2000–2006 when atmospheric CH4 concentrations were relatively stable. We present data for sources and sinks and provide insights for the geographical regions and economic sectors where emissions have changed the most over recent decades.

fossil fuel sources↗

Toward P-Band Passive Microwave Sensing of Soil Moisture

Currently, near-surface soil moisture at a global scale is being provided using National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellites, both of which utilize L-band (1.4 GHz; 21 cm wavelength ) passive microwave remote sensing techniques. However, a fundamental limitation of this technology is that the water content can only be measured for approximately the top 5-cm layer of soil moisture, and only over low-to-moderate vegetation covered areas in order to meet the 0.04 m3/m3 target accuracy, limiting its applicability. Consequently, a longer wavelength radiometer is being explored as a potential solution for measuring soil moisture in a deeper surface layer of soil and under denser vegetation. It is expected that P-band ( wavelength of 40 cm and frequency of 750 MHz) could potentially provide soil moisture information for the top 10-cm layer of soil, being one-tenth to one-quarter of the wavelength. In addition, P-band is expected to have higher soil moisture retrieval accuracy due to its reduced sensitivity to vegetation water content and surface roughness. To demonstrate the potential of P-band passive microwave soil moisture remote sensing, a short-term airborne field experiment was conducted over a center pivot irrigated farm at Cressy in Tasmania, Australia, in January 2017. First results showing a comparison of airborne P-band brightness temperature observations against airborne L-band brightness temperature observations and ground soil moisture measurements are presented. The P-band brightness temperature was found to have a similar but stronger response to soil moisture compared to L-band.

Nan Ye↗

Observation of Trace Gases Seasonal Variability in the Marine Boundary Layer over the Atlantic Ocean during the ACTIVATE Field Campaign

High resolution in-situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and water vapor (H2O) were made onboard the NASA HU-25 aircraft during the ACTIVATE (Aerosol Cloud meteorology Interactions oVer the western Atlantic Experiment) campaign during 2020 and 2021 in different seasons (winter through summer) over the mid-latitude western Atlantic Ocean. As most of the flights focused on the marine boundary layer (MBL) during the campaign, these trace gas observations are an excellent data set to examine seasonal variability of trace gas background values in the MBL without the influence of localized point sources. We will describe the variability of these trace gases in the MBL background by filtering out concentrated point sources using back trajectory analysis along with trace gas ratios. Additionally, the ocean is a significant sink of anthropogenic CO2 capturing about one quarter of total anthropogenic carbon. By looking at the MBL CO2 variation as a function of season, we discuss observed changes in CO2 uptake over the ocean. These high accuracy observations of trace gas backgrounds in the MBL along with characterizing seasonal effects on oceanic sequestering of anthropogenic CO2 will improve the understanding of seasonal variations and change in climate and inverse modelling over the ocean.

Yonghoon Choi↗

COVID-19 Crisis Reduces Free Tropospheric Ozone Across the Northern Hemisphere

Throughout spring and summer 2020, ozone stations in the northern extratropics recorded unusually low ozone in the free troposphere. From April to August, and from 1 to 8 kilometers altitude, ozone was on average 7% (≈4 nmol/mol) below the 2000–2020 climatological mean. Such low ozone, over several months, and at so many stations, has not been observed in any previous year since at least 2000. Atmospheric composition analyses from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and simulations from the NASA GMI model indicate that the large 2020 springtime ozone depletion in the Arctic stratosphere contributed less than one-quarter of the observed tropospheric anomaly. The observed anomaly is consistent with recent chemistry-climate model simulations, which assume emissions reductions similar to those caused by the COVID-19 crisis. COVID-19 related emissions reductions appear to be the major cause for the observed reduced free tropospheric ozone in 2020.

COVID-19↗

Development of A Directed Acyclic Graph for Venous Thromboembolism During Spaceflight

Introduction: Recent studies have reported the development of venous blood flow stasis in astronauts and an occlusive venous thrombosis during spaceflight. Subsequent investigations revealed approximately one quarter of surveilled crew members had some degree of blood flow stasis in the left internal jugular vein. Therefore, NASA’s Human System Risk Board now formally tracks venous thromboembolism (VTE) as a “concern” for human spaceflight. To investigate potential mechanisms by which exposures concomitant with spaceflight (e.g., microgravity, radiation) may contribute to VTE, we developed a causal diagram in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Methods: The mechanisms by which spaceflight exposures may elevate the risk of VTE and the downstream effects on mission outcomes were critically analyzed, taking into account scientific literature and subject matter expertise consultation, and a DAG was generated. A Level-of-Evidence score for each causal relationship was assigned based on assessing the literature against a set of criteria derived from the A. Bradford Hill Causal Guidelines. Results: The set of three main factors that predispose people to VTE (hypercoagulability, endothelial damage, and blood stasis) is known as Virchow’s Triad. In constructing the DAG for VTE we articulated various mechanisms by which the principal spaceflight hazards (microgravity, radiation, closed hostile environment, isolation and confinement, distance from Earth) are thought to interact with or cause the components in Virchow’s triad. We found sufficient evidence to at least speculate that fluid shifts from microgravity, compensatory alterations in hematologic indices, spaceflight atmospheric conditions, and oxidative stress/inflammation from radiation may be potential contributors to VTE development. Discussion: Developing the DAG entailed a systematic and repeatable approach for visualizing relationships between contributing factors that may lead to VTE in spaceflight. Articulating pathways linking spaceflight exposures to VTE risk factors and possible VTE development enables subject matter experts from different domains to construct a shared mental model. Assignment of levels of evidence scores to the relationships helps identify knowledge and capability gaps that should be considered for further investigation. Furthermore, the DAG highlights modifiable variables and may therefore facilitate the development of new VTE risk mitigation strategies.

Alexander Svoronos↗

Measured and Modeled Vineyard Canopy Development and Water Use

Two publicly available applications relevant to vineyard irrigation management are described. OpenET is a satellite-based system that applies an ensemble of remote sensing methods to enable wide-area monitoring of evapotranspiration (ET) and related measures such as vegetation canopy development (via the NDVI spectral index). Data are freely available at one-quarter acre spatial resolution, and may be automatically aggregated to the individual block level. The satellite-based daily ET data were compared with in-situ eddy covariance measurements collected by micro-meteorological instrumentation in a Central Coast vineyard over a three-year period (2020-2022). Estimation uncertainties were reasonably consistent with prior reports for GRAPEX sites in the Central Valley and North Coast. The CropManage (CM) web application is a free software tool developed and operated U.C. Cooperative Extension for ET-based irrigation scheduling of major specialty crops. CM provides specific guidance for irrigation events in terms of irrigation system runtime. Applied water recommendations are based largely on estimated ET, derived from assumed canopy cover and associated crop coefficients, since the last irrigation or rainfall event. The application was recently adapted to vineyards by accounting for presence of winter/spring cover crop, and vine water stress imposed by regulated deficit irrigation. A 2022 field campaign involved 12 Central Coast and San Joaquin Valley commercial vineyards, and OpenET data were used to help evaluate CM output. Maximum percent vine cover was compared to estimates derived from average July satellite NDVI. The difference for 10 sites lacking midseason groundcover ranged from 0-7% between datasets with average agreement near 4%. Cumulative ET estimates agreed with OpenET to within 12% at the majority of sites, while larger discrepancies at the remaining sites may require additional data collection and analysis during the 2023 season. Satellite based systems such as OpenET have the potential to help parameterize CropManage and similar agricultural decision-support systems.

Measured↗

Reliability Growth Modeling and Testing

Reliability growth has been modelled as an exponential decline in the cumulative failure rate that continues indefinitely as long as testing continues. Contrary to this, most reliability growth data show a brief high initial failure rate due to infant mortality followed by a long period of constant low failure rate. A two part failure rate model with an initial exponential decline followed by a constant failure rate usually fits the data and provides a more realistic description of reliability growth. The reliability growth process consists of testing, experiencing failures, finding the failure causes, and redesigning the system to remove them. The cost of reliability growth increases with the number of inherent failure modes and the time needed for them to occur and be removed. The failure modes with the lower failure rates will tend to occur later, as their Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF) is the inverse of the failure rate. Reliability growth testing has diminishing returns, since it takes longer to find and remove the less probable failures.This paper first discusses the reliability bathtub curve and then explains that reliability growth is produced by testing, identifying failure causes, and designing to remove them. A simple model of reliability growth is introduced, with a brief group of early failures followed by a constant failure rate. The cumulative failure rate n(t)/t can decline as rapidly as1/t or t-1butdeclines more slowly if additiona lfailures occur. The 56-failure Crow data seti s used to demonstrate the two-phase model of reliability growth followed by a constant failure rate. 13 additional data sets are modeled, with 9 of the 14 data sets showing reliability growth approximately as n(t)/t =1/t or t-1and substantial final failure rates. The model fits most of the data sets, but 4of the 14 show no reliability growth. The reliability growth period typically includes six failures and extends one-quarter or half the total test time. As reliability growth testing continues, the cumulative failure rate should be tracked to estimate the reliability growth exponent and the final failure rate.

reliability growth modeling↗

Modeling Reliability Growth

Reliability growth has been modelled as an exponential decline in the cumulative failure rate that continues indefinitely as long as testing continues. Contrary to this, most reliability growth data show a brief high initial failure rate due to infant mortality followed by a long period of constant low failure rate. A two part failure rate model with an initial exponential decline followed by a constant failure rate usually fits the data and provides a more realistic description of reliability growth. The reliability growth process consists of testing, experiencing failures, finding the failure causes, and redesigning the system to remove them. The cost of reliability growth increases with the number of inherent failure modes and the time needed for them to occur and be removed. The failure modes with the lower failure rates will tend to occur later, as their Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF) is the inverse of the failure rate. Reliability growth testing has diminishing returns, since it takes longer to find and remove the less probable failures.This paper first discusses the reliability bathtub curve and then explains that reliability growth is produced by testing, identifying failure causes, and designing to remove them. A simple model of reliability growth is introduced, with a brief group of early failures followed by a constant failure rate. The cumulative failure rate n(t)/t can decline as rapidly as1/t or t-1butdeclines more slowly if additiona lfailures occur. The 56-failure Crow data seti s used to demonstrate the two-phase model of reliability growth followed by a constant failure rate. 13 additional data sets are modeled, with 9 of the 14 data sets showing reliability growth approximately as n(t)/t =1/t or t-1and substantial final failure rates. The model fits most of the data sets, but 4of the 14 show no reliability growth. The reliability growth period typically includes six failures and extends one-quarter or half the total test time. As reliability growth testing continues, the cumulative failure rate should be tracked to estimate the reliability growth exponent and the final failure rate.

reliability growth modeling↗

Registration station for assembling insulating glass windows

An insulating glass unit (IGU) assembly line comprising a registration station capable of interleaving double and triple pane IGUs in accordance with an IOU production schedule. Visual indicators or prompts instruct operators at the assembly line in configuring a sequence of IGUs. Triple pane IGUs are assembled with minimal contamination of a center glass lite. A non-contact Bernoulli pad is used to lift a glass lite off from a horizontal or vertical support that conveys it from a glass washer to the registration station. Each of multiple pads has a capacity to lift approximately seven to ten pounds. Use of multiple pads per glass sheet or lite allows lites having dimensions up to 70 by 100 inches (assuming glass thickness of one quarter inch) to be assembled.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Techno-Economic Analysis for GTI's Compact Hydrogen Generator

A technoeconomic analysis of the compact hydrogen generator compared to a traditional steam methane reformer (SMR) was performed for both processes with and without carbon capture. The project goal for the technoeconomic analysis was to demonstrate a minimum of 20% lower CAPEX and 15% lower levelized cost of hydrogen compared to SMR with and without carbon capture. GTI obtained baseline capital and costs for the SMR with and without and methodology to calculate the levelized cost of hydrogen from an IEAGHG Technical Report: 2017-02 Techno-Economic Evaluation of SMR Based Standalone (Merchant) Hydrogen Plant with CCS. This methodology was then applied to GTI’s compact hydrogen generator using direct material costs previously obtained from a reputable engineering procurement and construction company, CB&I Howe-Baker. The analysis was performed for plants producing 90MMSCFD (million standard cubic feed per day) of hydrogen. Direct material costs were converted to total installed costs and total capital requirements using the same multiplying factors for both processes. We have found that the direct materials cost of the compact hydrogen generator is less than half the direct materials cost required for SMR without capture, and about one quarter the direct materials cost of SMR with carbon capture. This low materials cost translates into a significant CAPEX savings and lower levelized cost of hydrogen that exceed the goals of the techno-economic assessment. We have found that the CHG has a 43% lower installed cost and capital requirement compared to SMR without capture, that results in a levelized cost of hydrogen that is 19% lower than SMR. When 90% CO2 capture is added to the plants, the advantages is even better. The CHG has a 51% lower installed and capital requirement compared to SMR with capture, resulting in a 28% lower levelized cost of hydrogen. A sensitivity analysis was performed and showed natural gas feedstock cost and discount rate to be the main contributors to hydrogen price sensitivity. Given these significant cost advantages, GTI is encouraged to continue to develop the technology and market the economic advantages as well as the efficiency gains and ability to inherently capture CO2.

08 HYDROGEN↗