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NASA NTRS2022

Review of Solar Energetic Particle Models

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars. Thus, it is critical to improve the scientific understanding of SEP events and use this understanding to develop and improve SEP forecasting capabilities to support operations. Many SEP models exist or are in development using a wide variety of approaches and with differing goals. These include computationally intensive physics-based models, fast and light empirical models, machine learning-based models, and mixed-model approaches. The aim of this paper is to summarize all of the SEP models currently developed in the scientific community, including a description of model approach, inputs and outputs, free parameters, and any published validations or comparisons with data.

Kathryn Whitman↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SPHINX: An SEP Model Validation Infrastructure developed through Community Challenges and the SEP Scoreboards

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars (Whitman et al 2022). For these reasons, SEP modelers have developed a rich and diverse set of models with a wide variety of aims. Some models probe the basic physics at the heart of particle acceleration and transport. Others produce fast statistical forecasts or employ disruptive new techniques like Machine Learning with the goal to assist end users in making operational decisions. To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of SEP model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed at NASA SRAG in close collaboration with NASA CCMC, NASA M2M, NOAA SWPC, and BIRA-IASB. This infrastructure has been built up through a multi-year community challenge. Starting in 2018 at the SHINE workshop, an effort was launched through SHINE, ISWAT, and ESWW to encourage quantitative, comprehensive, and consistent validation of SEP models. This effort has defined a set of challenge SEP events with the aim of generating quantitative comparisons between forecasts and observations and a set of challenge “non-events” to assess false alarms. In 2023, these challenge lists have been extended to statistically significant numbers with a prescribed set of rules for producing forecasts and supported through the dedicated SEPVAL working meetings. The participation of the research community has allowed the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models. In parallel, the SPHINX code is being applied to real time forecasts submitted to the SEP Scoreboards, ensuring that the validation infrastructure can interpret forecasts produced in an operational scenario and provide metrics meaningful for operations. Upon completion, SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-Web, will be made available for public use.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Data-driven, Physics-based Transport Model of Solar Energetic Particles Accelerated by Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks Propagating through the Solar Coronal and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields

In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration, and propagation of SEPs from coronal mass ejection (CME) shocks traversing through the solar corona and interplanetary magnetic fields. The model runs on an input of corona and heliospheric plasma and magnetic field configuration from a magnetohydrodynamic model driven by solar photospheric magnetic field measurements superposed with observed CME shocks determined from coronagraph images. SEP source particles are injected at the shock using the result of diffusive shock acceleration formulation from a characteristic obliquity-dependent injection from a heated solar wind thermal tail population. With several advanced computation techniques involving stochastic simulation and integration, the model obtains the particle intensity at any location in interplanetary space through the rigorous solution to the time-dependent 5D focus transport equation in the phase space that includes perpendicular diffusion. We apply the model to the 2011 November 3 CME event. The calculation results reproduce multispacecraft SEP observations at Earth and STEREO-B reasonably well without normalization of particle flux. The observations at STEREO-A can be reproduced by rescaling particle energy or modified energy dependence of particle diffusion coefficients. This circumsolar SEP event seen by spacecraft at Earth, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B at widely separated longitudes can be explained by diffusive shock acceleration by a single CME shock with a moderate speed.

Solar energetic particles↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Solar Flare and Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP 3 )

Solar activity is a primary factor determining the state of the Earth’s space environment, geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances, and radiation hazards. In the current state of knowledge, machine learning (ML) methods provide essential tools for processing data, investigating relationships among various physical properties and characteristics, uncovering hidden connections, and predicting hazardous solar events. The primary difficulty in developing and applying modern machine-learning tools in heliophysics is that the essential data are scattered among over a hundred data repositories developed by instrument teams of space missions and ground-based observatories. In addition, statistical and ML methods require long time series of homogeneous measurements. To facilitate ML-ready data preparation and access, we have developed an interactive database of solar flares integrating the most essential datasets (https://solarflare.njit.edu/). The database performs an initial data processing and is automatically updated. In addition, we are developing the Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3, https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3), which hosts web applications that allow users to retrieve the database records. The Portal has a search page for browsing the events from the most widely used catalogs and a dedicated space to share the most recent achievements of the team. The interactive widget can display soft X-ray and proton flux time series from GOES satellites and the flare records. The data portal has been used to evaluate the forecasts of solar proton events and investigate machine-learning approaches to SEP prediction.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS1997

Materials for Shielding Astronauts from the Hazards of Space Radiations

One major obstacle to human space exploration is the possible limitations imposed by the adverse effects of long-term exposure to the space environment. Even before human spaceflight began, the potentially brief exposure of astronauts to the very intense random solar energetic particle (SEP) events was of great concern. A new challenge appears in deep space exploration from exposure to the low-intensity heavy-ion flux of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) since the missions are of long duration and the accumulated exposures can be high. Because cancer induction rates increase behind low to rather large thickness of aluminum shielding according to available biological data on mammalian exposures to GCR like ions, the shield requirements for a Mars mission are prohibitively expensive in terms of mission launch costs. Preliminary studies indicate that materials with high hydrogen content and low atomic number constituents are most efficient in protecting the astronauts. This occurs for two reasons: the hydrogen is efficient in breaking up the heavy GCR ions into smaller less damaging fragments and the light constituents produce few secondary radiations (especially few biologically damaging neutrons). An overview of the materials related issues and their impact on human space exploration will be given.

Wilson, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Hazard calculations of diffuse reflected laser radiation for the SELENE program

The hazards from diffuse laser light reflections off water clouds, ice clouds, and fog and from possible specular reflections off ice clouds were assessed with the American National Standards (ANSI Z136.1-1986) for the free-electron-laser parameters under consideration for the Segmented Efficient Laser Emission for Non-Nuclear Electricity (SELENE) Program. Diffuse laser reflection hazards exist for water cloud surfaces less than 722 m in altitude and ice cloud surfaces less than 850 m in altitude. Specular reflections from ice crystals in cirrus clouds are not probable; however, any specular reflection is a hazard to ground observers. The hazard to the laser operators and any ground observers during heavy fog conditions is of such significant magnitude that the laser should not be operated in fog.

Miner, Gilda A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MULTI-OMICS ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CHRONIC LOW-DOSE RADIATION AND HINDLIMB SUSPENSION ON MURINE BRAIN AND RETINA

The space environment includes hazards like radiation and microgravity which can adversely affect biological systems. We assessed multi-omics multi-tissue NASA GeneLab datasets where 6-month-old female mice were gamma irradiated (IR) and/or hindlimb unloaded (HLU) for 21 days. Whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-Seq) and reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) of brain and retina samples collected at 4 months post-exposure was performed to better characterize the retinal and neurological responses to spaceflight. We compared epigenomic and transcriptomic profiles within each exposure group for both tissue types to identify correlation (Pearson’s correlation test; p-value < 0.05) between gene expression and DNA methylation levels that may be related to transcriptional regulation. We then obtained genes with methylation-expression correlation that also showed differences in mean expression or dispersion between exposed and control groups (adjusted p-value < 0.25; relaxed to denote ‘hypothesis’) in the brain (37 genes in HLU, 4 in IR, and 156 in HLU+IR) or retina (92 genes in HLU, 1 in IR, and 55 in HLU+IR). Enriched Gene Ontology (GO) terms for these genes are listed in Table 1 for HLU and HLU+IR for both tissue types. No enriched terms and only a few genes were detected with IR-only exposure in the brain (Chmp1a, Limd1, Rab40b, Ubc) and retina (retinoblastoma binding protein Rbbp7). Cellular components related to synapse were enriched in both tissue types. Previous analysis of differentially expressed genes in the retina after 1 month of HLU+IR showed enrichment in the somatodendritic compartment of the neuron, which was also observed in the brain 4 months post-exposure. Interestingly, genes related to ubiquitination showed correlation between methylation and expression and were differentially expressed or dispersed in different exposure groups indicating that this pathway may play an important role in multi-stressor response (Figure 1). The current multi-omics and multi-tissue analysis interrogates the epigenomic and transcriptomic impacts of radiation and hindlimb unloading, in isolation and in combination, on the retina and the brain. The results provide insight into the adaptive response to individual spaceflight hazard analogs and their interplay, as well as hypotheses to be further tested for understanding spaceflight-induced neurological and vision effects.

Prachi Kothiyal↗