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NASA NTRS2019

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980-47 2015 using the National Climate Assessment-Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah Version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125 degreesx0.125 degrees forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at p<0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends, and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm/yr in the Upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 in the West and South; net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W/m(exp2)/yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 in the West; U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03K/yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from West to East. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days/yr while trend detection increased 11%; Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, RMSE decreasing only 0.17 to 0.16 W/m(exp 2)/yr, while trend detection increased 2%; NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm/yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gaged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Snow depth↗

NASA NTRS2019

Estimating Alpine Snow Depth by Combining Multi-Frequency Passive Radiance Observations with Ensemble Snowpack Modeling

This paper presents a physically-based snow depth retrieval algorithm adapted for deep mountainous snowpack and airborne multifrequency (10.7, 18.7, 37.0 and 89.0 GHz) passive microwave (PM) radiance observations from a single flight. The algorithm employs a single forecast-analysis cycle of a traditional sequential assimilation scheme. It uses an ensemble of multi-layer snowpack model runs to resolve snow microstructure and melt-refreeze crusts, andmicrowave radiative transfer models to relate snow properties to microwave measurements.Snow depth was retrieved at a 120 m spatial resolution over three 1 km2 Intensive Study Area (ISA) within the Rabbit Ears Meso-Cell Study Area (MSA) from the NASA Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) in Colorado (United States) for one date in February 2003. When evaluated against in situ observations, root mean square error (RMSE) of the snow depth from the assimilation was 13.3 cm for areas with low (<5 %) forest cover, which was a reduction of 48 % in the RMSE compared with the modeled snow depth when the PM observations were not assimilated; indicating a ~5% relative error of the posterior snow depth with respect to the average snow depth (200 cm) measured at these pixels. For pixels with forest cover ranging from 5-15% and 15-30%, results were improved (R2 increased from 0.65 to 0.71 and from 0 to 0.38, respectively) by introducing a forest radiative transfer model during the assimilation.

Airborne Multifrequency↗

NASA NTRS2019

Exploring the Utility of Machine Learning-Based Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Data Assimilation over Terrestrial Snow in High Mountain Asia

This study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) as the observation operator within a passive microwave brightness temperature data assimilation framework (herein SVM-DA) to enhance the characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) over High Mountain Asia (HMA). A series of synthetic twin experiments were conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at a number of locations across HMA. Overall, the SVM-DA framework is effective at improving SWE estimates (~70% reduction in RMSE relative to the Open Loop) for SWE depths less than 200 mm during dry snowpack conditions. The SVM-DA framework also improves SWE estimates in deep, wet snow (~45% reduction in RMSE) when snow liquid water is well estimated by the land surface model, but can lead to model degradation when snow liquid water estimates diverge from values used during SVM training. In particular, two key challenges of using the SVM-DA framework were observed over deep, wet snowpacks. First, variations in snow liquid water content dominate the brightness temperature spectral difference (TB) signal associated with emission from a wet snowpack, which can lead to abrupt changes in SWE during the analysis update. Second, the ensemble of SVM-based predictions can collapse (i.e., yield a near-zero standard deviation across the ensemble) when prior estimates of snow are outside the range of snow inputs used during the SVM training procedure. Such a scenario can lead to the presence of spurious error correlations between SWE and TB, and as a consequence, can result in degraded SWE estimates from the analysis update. These degraded analysis updates can be largely mitigated by applying rule-based approaches. For example, restricting the SWE update when the standard deviation of the predicted TB is greater than 0.05 K helps prevent the occurrence of filter divergence. Similarly, adding a thin layer (i.e., 5 mm) of SWE when the synthetic TB is larger than 5 K can improve SVM-DA performance in the presence of a precipitation dry bias. The study demonstrates that a carefully constructed SVM-DA framework cognizant of the inherent limitations of passive microwave-based SWE estimation holds promise for snow mass data assimilation.

Kwon, Yonghwan↗

NASA NTRS2020

Scaling Observation Error for Optimal Assimilation of CCI SST Data into a Regional HYCOM EnOI System

South Africa currently possesses no operational ocean forecasting system for the purpose of predicting ocean state variables including temperature,salinity and velocity. Substantial initial efforts towards this goal have been made and resulted in a system using a regional Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) along with the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI)assimilation scheme. Assimilating only sea surface temperature (SST) observations from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) product into the system resulted in a degraded forecast. Aiming to address this, Climate Change Initiative (CCI) SSTs are assimilated into the system in an effort to improve the forecast skill. Observation errors in the assimilated product are used in the EnOI to determine whether more confidence should be placed in the model or observations in producing the analysis, but overconfidence in observations can shock the model and result in failure. To tweak the impact of the assimilation, a scaling factor is applied in the assimilation code. A scaling factor of 25 was found to produce a favourable result with lowest mean root mean square error (RMSE;1.098°C) between the model and observations over time. Postulating the error to be overconfident, a floor value is introduced in order to set a minimum value for the observation error thereby reducing confidence in the observations. These experiments fared less favourably with a floor value of 0.5 and a scaling factor of 15 producing the best mean RMSE (1.118°C).

Luyt, Hermann↗

NASA NTRS2021

Using SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture to Constrain MOD16 Evapotranspiration over the Contiguous USA

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key hydrologic variable linking the Earth’s water, carbon and energy cycles. At large spatial scales, remote sensing-based (RS) models are often used to quantify ET. Despite the large number of RS ET models available, few include soil moisture as a key environmental input, which can degrade model accuracy and utility. Here, we use model assimilation enhanced soil moisture estimates from the NASA SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission as a water supply control in the MOD16 ET algorithm framework. SMAP-derived daily surface (0-5cm depth) and root zone (0-1m depth) soil moisture are used with MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) vegetation observations, and 4km gridded regional surface meteorology (Gridmet) as primary inputs for estimating daily ET and underlying model soil and stomatal conductance terms. We calibrated the model environmental response parameters using tower eddy covariance ET observations representing major North American biomes. The model ET results were validated using a holdout set of tower observations spanning a large regional climate gradient. The updated ET estimates outperform the baseline MOD16 product across all tower validation sites (RMSE = 0.758 vs 1.108 mm day-1; R2 = 0.68 vs0.45, respectively). Smaller relative improvements were obtained using a recalibrated model with 4km Gridmet meteorology, but no soil moisture control (RMSE = 0.813 mm day-1; R2 = 0.66), indicating that these changes are essential for the improved model performance. The soil moisture-constrained model improvements and relative benefits from the SMAP observations are greater in arid climates, consistent with stronger soil moisture control on ET in water-limited regions. The use of SMAP soil moisture as an additional model constraint improves MOD16 regional performance and provides a new framework for investigating both soil and atmosphere controls on ET.

SMAP↗

NASA NTRS2021

Estimating Terrestrial Snow Mass via Multi-sensor Assimilation of Synthetic AMSR-E Brightness Temperature Spectral Differences and Synthetic GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Retrievals

This study explores multi-sensor data assimilation (DA) using synthetic Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) passive microwave brightness temperature spectral differences (∆T(B)) and synthetic Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage (TWS) retrievals to improve estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE), subsurface water storage, and TWS across snow-covered terrain. Results show that multi-sensor DA improves SWE estimates by reducing the RMSE by 14.1% relative to a model-only simulation. Multi-sensor assimilation also yields the smallest TWS RMSE (reduced by 13.0% relative to a model-only simulation). However, multi-sensor DA does not always yield complementary updates, and can sometimes lead to conflicting changes to SWE, where the assimilation of synthetic ∆T(b) generates positive SWE increments while the assimilation of synthetic TWS removes SWE, which can ultimately degrade the posterior SWE estimates. This synthetic experiment provides useful insight for future DA experiments using real-world AMSR-E/AMSR-2 ∆T(b) observations and GRACE/GRACE-FO TWS retrievals to better characterize terrestrial freshwater storage across regional scales.

Jing Wang↗

NASA NTRS2019

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980–2015 using the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125° 3 0.125° forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth, and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test at p < 0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm/yr in the upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 mm/yr in the West and South, net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W/sq. m yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 W/sq. m yr in the West, and U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03K/yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from west to east. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days/yr while trend detection increased 11%. Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, with RMSE decreasing only from 0.17 to 0.16 W/sq. m yr, while trend detection increased 2%. NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm/yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gauged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Michael F. Jasinski↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ground Validation of TRMM 3B43 V7 Precipitation Estimates Over Colombia. Part I: Monthly and Seasonal Timescales

In this study, we validate precipitation estimates remotely sensed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) at monthly and seasonal timescales, during the period 1998–2015, by calculating and analyzing diverse error metrics between the 3B43 V7 product and in situ measurements from 1,180 rain gauges over Colombia, of which at least 987 are fully independent of TRMM. We explore the existence of spatiotemporal patterns to assess the performance of 3B43 V7 over the five major natural regions of Colombia: Caribbean, Pacific, Andes, Orinoco and Amazon. The results show that 3B43 V7 product is able to capture the phase of the annual cycle of monthly mean precipitation, but the performance is not good for the amplitude, in particular over the Andes and Pacific regions owing to complex climatic and topographic conditions. In general, 3B43 V7 exhibits good performance in the low‐lying and plain Amazon, Orinoco and Caribbean regions. Over the Andes region, characterized by complex topography, overestimation errors are identified [root mean squared error (RMSE) ≥83.59 mm·month−1 and relative bias (BIAS) ≥4.69%], whereas the extremely wet rainfall regime of the Pacific region is largely underestimated (RMSE ≥253.52 mm ·month−1 and BIAS ≤−11.75%). These errors are greater during the wet seasons when the metrics reach worse scores than those reported in similar studies worldwide. Occurrence analyses showed that 3B43 V7 misses very frequent light rainfall events and less frequent but very heavy storms, which contribute to the overall underestimation (overestimation) observed over the Pacific (Andes) region. The error characteristics identified and quantified in this study confirm the well‐documented limitations of remote precipitation sensing and constitute a warning about major challenges that complex climatic and physiographic features can impose on satellite rainfall missions.

Columbia↗

NASA NTRS2020

Mapping tall shrub biomass in Alaska at landscape scale using structure-from-motion photogrammetry and lidar

Warming in arctic and boreal regions is increasing shrub cover and biomass. In southcentral Alaska, willow (Salix spp.) and alder (Alnus spp.) shrubs grow taller than many tree species and account for a substantial proportion of aboveground biomass, yet they are not individually measured as part of the operational Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program. The goal of this research was to test methods for landscape-scale mapping of tall shrub biomass in upper montane and subalpine environments using FIA-type plot measurements (n = 51) and predictor variables from imagery-based structure-from-motion (SfM) and airborne lidar. Specifically, we compared biomass models constructed from imagery acquired by unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV; ~1.7 cm pixels), imagery from the NASA Goddard's Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal Airborne Imager (G-LiHT; ~3.1 cm pixels), and concomitant G-LiHT small-footprint lidar. Tall shrub biomass was most accurately predicted at 5 m resolution (R^2 = 0.81, RMSE = 1.09 kg/sq. m) using G-LiHT SfM color and structure variables. Lidar-only models had lower precision (R^2 = 0.74, RMSE = 1.26 kg/sq. m), possibly due to reduced model information content from variable multicollinearity or lower data density. Separate models for upper montane zones with trees and shrubs and subalpine zones with only shrubs were always chosen over single models based on minimization of Akaike's Information Criterion, indicating the need for variable sets robust to overhanging tree canopy. Decreasing point density from UAV (5000–8000 pts./sq. m) to the G-LiHT SfM point cloud (500–2000 pts./sq. m) had little impact on model fit, suggesting that high-resolution airborne imagery can extend SfM approaches well beyond line-of-sight restrictions for UAV platforms. Overall, our results confirmed that SfM from high-resolution imagery is a viable approach to estimate shrub biomass in the boreal region, especially when an existing lidar terrain model and local field calibration data are available to quantify uncertainty in the SfM point cloud and landscape-scale estimates of shrub biomass.

Michael Alonzo↗

NASA NTRS2020

Advancing Methodologies for Applying Machine Learning and Evaluating Spatiotemporal Models of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Using Satellite Data Over Large Regions

Reconstructing the distribution of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in space and time, even far from ground monitoring sites, is an important exposure science contribution to epidemiologic analyses of PM 2.5 health impacts. Flexible statistical methods for prediction have demonstrated the integration of satellite observations with other predictors, yet these algorithms are susceptible to overfitting the spatiotemporal structure of the training datasets. We present a new approach for predicting PM 2.5 using machine-learning methods and evaluating prediction models for the goal of making predictions where they were not previously available. We apply extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) modeling to predict daily PM 2.5 on a 1 x 1 km 2 resolution for a 13 state region in the Northeastern USA for the years 2000–2015 using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth and implement a recursive feature selection to develop a parsimonious model. We demonstrate excellent predictions of withheld observations but also contrast an RMSE of 3.11 μg/m 3 in our spatial cross-validation withholding nearby sites versus an overfit RMSE of 2.10 μg/m 3 using a more conventional random ten-fold splitting of the dataset. As the field of exposure science moves forward with the use of advanced machine-learning approaches for spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutants, our results show the importance of addressing data leakage in training, overfitting to spatiotemporal structure, and the impact of the predominance of ground monitoring sites in dense urban sub-networks on model evaluation. The strengths of our resultant modeling approach for exposure in epidemiologic studies of PM 2.5 include improved efficiency, parsimony, and interpretability with robust validation while still accommodating complex spatiotemporal relationships.

air pollution↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Multi-scaled Analysis of Forest Structure using Individual-Based Modeling in a Costa Rican Rainforest

Consideration of scale is essential when examining structural relationships in forests. In this study, we present a parameterization of the FORMIND individual-based forest model for old growth Atlantic lowland rainforest in La Selva, Costa Rica. Results show that the simulated forest reproduces the structural complexity of Costa Rican rainforest within 2.3% of aboveground biomass values, based on comparisons with CARBONO inventory plot data. The Costa Rica FORMIND simulation was then used to investigate the relationship between canopy height and aboveground biomass (AGB), leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) at different spatial scales (20 × 20 m, 60 × 60 m, 100mx100m). The relationship between aboveground biomass and height is of particular importance toward the calibration of various remote sensing products including lidar and radar, whereas the LAI and GPP relationships are understudied in this context. We found that the relationship between all three variables and height varies considerably: the relationship is stronger at finer scales and weaker at coarser resolution. However, in all three comparisons, RMSE also decreased as scales coarsened, with the largest difference shown between 100 m and 10 m resolutions in relating AGB to Lorey's height (R^2 decreased by 0.3; RMSE decreased by 114.5 Mg/ha). This suggests that a trade-off between accuracy and precision exists, and further highlights the importance of spatial scale in determining the relatability of forest structure variables.

A.H.Armstrong↗

NASA NTRS2021

Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5

The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to

SMAP↗

NASA NTRS2021

Assimilation of SMAP Brightness Temperature Observations in the GEOS Land–Atmosphere Data Assimilation System

Errors in soil moisture adversely impact the modeling of land–atmosphere water and energy fluxes and, consequently, near-surface atmospheric conditions in atmospheric data assimilation systems (ADAS). To mitigate such errors, a land surface analysis is included in many such systems, although not yet in the currently operational NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ADAS. This article investigates the assimilation of L-band brightness temperature (Tb) observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission in the GEOS weakly coupled land–atmosphere data assimilation system (LADAS) during boreal summer 2017. The SMAP Tb analysis improves the correlation of LADAS surface and root-zone soil moisture versus in situ measurements by ∼0.1–0.26 over that of ADAS estimates; the unbiased root-mean-square error of LADAS soil moisture is reduced by 0.002–0.008 m^3 /m^3 from that of ADAS. Furthermore, the global land average RMSE versus in situ measurements of screen-level air specific humidity (q2m) and daily maximum temperature (T2m_max ) is reduced by 0.05 g/kg and 0.04 K, respectively, for LADAS compared to ADAS estimates. Regionally, the RMSE of LADAS q2m and T2m_max is improved by up to 0.4 g/kg and 0.3 K, respectively. Improvement in LADAS specific humidity extends into the lower troposphere (below ∼700 mb), with relative improvements in bias of 15–25%, although LADAS air temperature bias slightly increases relative to that of ADAS. Finally, the root mean square of the LADAS Tb observation-minus-forecast residuals is smaller by up to ∼0.1 K than in a land-only assimilation system, corroborating the positive impact of the Tb analysis on the modeled land–atmosphere coupling.

microwave remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Semi-Empirical Scheme for Bathymetric Mapping in Shallow Water by ICESat-2 and Sentinel-2: A Case Study in the South China Sea

To derive shallow water bathymetry for coastal areas, a common approach is to deploy a scanning airborne bathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR) system or a shipborne echosounder for ground surveys. However, recent advancements in satellite remote sensing, including the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) offer new tools for generating satellite derived bathymetry (SDB). The key payload onboard ICESat-2 is the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS), a micro-pulse, photon-counting LiDAR system, simultaneously emitting six separate 532 nm beams at 10 kHz pulse rate. However, despite its high resolution, the major limitation for bathymetry is that ICESat-2 only provides along-track height profiles, leaving observation gaps between the parallel ground tracks. Merging ICESat-2 observations with optical multispectral imagery, as demonstrated herein, provides an effective solution for deriving a full scene of water depth in light of the spectral attenuation behavior. This study aims to combine ICESat-2 and Sentinel-2 optical data to derive shallow water bathymetry (depth <20 m) at six islands and reefs in the South China Sea. ICESat-2 ATL03 point clouds of georeferenced photons are first filtered to determine the seafloor elevation along the ground track. Results indicate a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.26–0.61 m as compared with independent observations from an airborne LiDAR campaign. Next, three semi-empirical functions, namely the Modified Linear/Polynomial/Exponential Ratio Models with its kernel formed by the log ratio between Sentinel-2′s green and blue bands, are used to fit the spectral data with ICESat-2 height profiles. After water depth mapping using the trained model, independent ICESat-2 point clouds are used to validate the Sentinel-2 derived bathymetry. The RMSE values of the three models using the weighted average of multiple images for these six islands are within 0.50–0.90 m in 0–15 m deep. We also demonstrate that a synthesis of satellite laser altimetry and optical remote sensing can produce SDB results that potentially meet the requirement of category C in Zones of Confidence (ZOC) of the Electronic Navigational Chart (ENC) in 0–8 m deep. It is foreseen that ICESat-2 will be a helpful tool for mapping coastal and shallow waters around the world especially where bathymetric data are unavailable.

Coastal Bathymetry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigating seasonal ENSO forecast amplitude calibration for GEOS-S2S-2

The GEOS-S2S-2 is a global coupled model and assimilation system, encompassing many aspects of the Earth climate system. This project looked at seasonal (nine-month) ensemble forecasts, over the period from 1982 through the present. We explored and validated a forecast amplitude correction technique used by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), of which GEOS is a member, for Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly predictions. The method relies on deriving a set of correction factors based on the standard deviations of hindcast and observed SST anomalies. This algorithm was implemented at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and applied to the GEOS-S2S-2 Niño 3.4 hindcasts. In general, the correction reduced the forecast amplitude. This improved the quality of the forecasts when measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) of the ensemble mean forecast. RMSE decreased for most initialization months and forecast leads. The correction had a larger impact on seasons with strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events than neutral seasons. The effects of the correction on the ensemble characteristics were also examined, and a variation of the algorithm was proposed that preserves the ensemble spread. The outcome of this project is a tool that can be used to calibrate GEOS-S2S-2 ENSO forecasts and potentially improve the precision of multi-model El Niño outlooks.

ENSO↗

NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of SWIR Crop Residue Bands for the Landsat Next Mission

This research reports the findings of a Landsat Next expert review panel that evaluated the use of narrow shortwave infrared (SWIR) reflectance bands to measure ligno-cellulose absorption features centered near 2100 and 2300 nm, with the objective of measuring and mapping non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), crop residue cover, and the adoption of conservation tillage practices within agricultural landscapes. Results could also apply to detection of NPV in pasture, grazing lands, and non-agricultural settings. Currently, there are no satellite data sources that provide narrowband or hyperspectral SWIR imagery at sufficient volume to map NPV at a regional scale. The Landsat Next mission, currently under design and expected to launch in the late 2020’s, provides the opportunity for achieving increased SWIR sampling and spectral resolution with the adoption of new sensor technology. This study employed hyperspectral data collected from 916 agricultural field locations with varying fractional NPV, fractional green vegetation, and surface moisture contents. These spectra were processed to generate narrow bands with centers at 2040, 2100, 2210, 2260, and 2230 nm, at various bandwidths, that were subsequently used to derive 13 NPV spectral indices from each spectrum. For crop residues with minimal green vegetation cover, two-band indices derived from 2210 and 2260 nm bands were top performers for measuring NPV (R^(2) = 0.81, RMSE = 0.13) using bandwidths of 30 to 50 nm, and the addition of a third band at 2100 nm increased resistance to atmospheric correction residuals and improved mission continuity with Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager Band 7. For prediction of NPV over a full range of green vegetation cover, the Cellulose Absorption Index, derived from 2040, 2100, and 2210 nm bands, was top performer (R^(2) = 0.77, RMSE = 0.17), but required a narrow (≤20 nm) bandwidth at 2040 nm to avoid interference from atmospheric carbon dioxide absorption. In comparison, broadband NPV indices utilizing Landsat 8 bands centered at 1610 and 2200 nm performed poorly in measuring fractional NPV (R^(2) = 0.44), with significantly increased interference from green vegetation

Wells Dean Hively↗

NASA NTRS2022

Above-Aircraft Cirrus Cloud and Aerosol Optical Depth From Hyperspectral Irradiances Measured By a Total-Diffuse Radiometer

This study develops the use of spectral total and diffuse irradiance measurements, made from a prototype hyperspectral total-diffuse sunshine pyranometer (SPN-S), to retrieve layer fine-mode aerosol (τ aer ) and total optical depths from airborne platforms. Additionally, we use spectral analysis in an attempt to partition the total optical depth into its τ aer and cirrus cloud optical depth (τ cld ) components in the absence of coarse-mode aerosols. Two retrieval methods are developed: one leveraging information in the diffuse irradiance and the other using spectral characteristics of the transmitted direct beam, with each approach best suited for specific cloud and aerosol conditions. The SPN-S has advantages over traditional sun photometer systems, including no moving parts and a low cost. However, a significant drawback of the instrument is that it is unable to measure the direct-beam irradiance as accurately as sun photometers. To compensate for the greater measurement uncertainty in the radiometric irradiances, these retrieval techniques employ ratioed inputs or spectral information to reduce output uncertainty. This analysis uses irradiance measurements from the SPN-S and the solar spectral flux radiometer (SSFR) aboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) P-3 aircraft during the 2018 deployment of the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) campaign and the 2019 Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP 2 Ex) mission to quantify above-aircraft cirrus τ cld and derive vertical profiles of layer τ aer . Validation of the τ aer retrieval is accomplished by comparison with co-located measurements of direct solar irradiance made by the Sky-Scanning Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR) and in situ measurements of aerosol optical depth. For the aggregated 2018 ORACLES results, regression between the SPN-S-based method and sun photometer τ aer values yields a slope of 0.96 with an R 2 of 0.96, while the root mean square error (RMSE) is 3.0 x 10 -2 . When comparing the retrieved τ aer to profiles of integrated in situ measurements of optical extinction, the slope, R 2 , and RMSE values for ORACLES are 0.90, 0.96, and 3.4 x 10 -2 , and for CAMP 2 Ex they are 0.94, 0.97, and 3.4 x 10 -2 , respectively. This paper is a demonstration of methods for deriving cloud and aerosol optical properties in environments where both atmospheric constituents may be present. With improvements to the low-cost SPN-S radiometer instrument, it may be possible to extend these methods to a broader set of sampling applications, such as ground-based settings.

spectral instrument (SPN-S)↗

NASA NTRS2022

Analysis of the MODIS Above-Cloud Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm Using MCARS

The Multi-sensor Cloud and Aerosol Retrieval Simulator (MCARS) presently produces synthetic radiance data from Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model output as if the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was viewing a combination of atmospheric column inclusive of clouds, aerosols and a variety of gases and land/ocean surface at a specific location. In this paper we use MCARS to study the MODIS Above-Cloud AEROsol retrieval algorithm (MOD06ACAERO). MOD06ACAERO is presently a regional research algorithm able to retrieve aerosol optical thickness over clouds, in particular absorbing biomass burning aerosols overlying marine boundary layer clouds in the Southeastern Atlantic Ocean. The algorithm’s ability to provide aerosol information in cloudy conditions makes it a valuable source of information for modeling and climate studies n an area where current clear sky-only operational MODIS aerosol retrievals effectively have a data gap between the months of June and October. We use MCARS for a verification and closure study of the MOD06ACAERO algorithm. The purpose of this study is to develop a set of constraints a model developer might use during assimilation of MOD06ACAERO data. Our simulations indicate that the MOD06ACAERO algorithm performs well for marine boundary layer clouds in the SE Atlantic provided some specific screening rules are observed. For the present study, a combination of five simulated MODIS data granules was used for a dataset of 13.5 million samples with known input conditions. When pixel retrieval uncertainty was less than 30%, optical thickness of the underlying cloud layer was greater than 4 and scattering angle range within the cloud bow was excluded, MOD06ACAERO retrievals agreed with the underlying ground truth (GEOS-5 cloud and aerosol profiles used to generate the synthetic radiances) with a slope of 0.913, offset of 0.06, and RMSE=0.107. When only near-nadir pixels were considered (view zenith angle within +/-20 degrees) the agreement with source data further improved (0.977, 0.051 and 0.096 respectively). Algorithm closure was examined using a single case out of the five 38 used for verification. For closure, the MOD06ACAERO code was modified to use GEOS-5 temperature and moisture profiles as ancillary. Agreement of MOD06ACAERO retrievals with source data for the closure study had a slope of 0.996 with offset -0.007 and RMSE of 0.097 at pixel uncertainty level of less than 40%, illustrating the benefits of high-quality ancillary atmospheric data for such retrievals.

MODIS↗