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NASA NTRS2003

Estimation of Model Error Variances During Data Assimilation

Data assimilation is all about understanding the error characteristics of the data and models that are used in the assimilation process. Reliable error estimates are needed to implement observational quality control, bias correction of observations and model fields, and intelligent data selection. Meaningful covariance specifications are obviously required for the analysis as well, since the impact of any single observation strongly depends on the assumed structure of the background errors. Operational atmospheric data assimilation systems still rely primarily on climatological background error covariances. To obtain error estimates that reflect both the character of the flow and the current state of the observing system, it is necessary to solve three problems: (1) how to account for the short-term evolution of errors in the initial conditions; (2) how to estimate the additional component of error caused by model defects; and (3) how to compute the error reduction in the analysis due to observational information. Various approaches are now available that provide approximate solutions to the first and third of these problems. However, the useful accuracy of these solutions very much depends on the size and character of the model errors and the ability to account for them. Model errors represent the real-world forcing of the error evolution in a data assimilation system. Clearly, meaningful model error estimates and/or statistics must be based on information external to the model itself. The most obvious information source is observational, and since the volume of available geophysical data is growing rapidly, there is some hope that a purely statistical approach to model error estimation can be viable. This requires that the observation errors themselves are well understood and quantifiable. We will discuss some of these challenges and present a new sequential scheme for estimating model error variances from observations in the context of an atmospheric data assimilation system.

Dee, Dick↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power generation-cooling water Nexus: Impacts of cooling water shortage on power system operation - a simulation case study in Illinois, U.S

Cooling water shortage, frequently attributed to drought and heat waves, poses a significant threat to the operations of thermoelectric power plants and further poses a challenge for the entire power system and environmental stakeholders. Recognizing the critical nexus between power generation and cooling water availability and the potential ability of power generations to adjust generation schedules during cooling water shortages, this paper introduces a security-constrained unit commitment and economic dispatch model considering water-energy nexus. In specific, the model is augmented with a unit-level cooling water requirement (CWR) model and multi-level cooling water availability (CWA) constraints. The unit-level CWR model quantifies the cooling water withdrawal per MWh of power generation, taking into account factors such as thermoelectric generation technologies, cooling system technologies, and environmental parameters. The multi-level CWA constraints incorporate pump-level, plant-level, watershed-level, and forced minimum power constraints, utilizing data derived from actual-based cooling water shortage scenarios. Using a simulation case study in Illinois, United States, this research examines the reliability, economic, and environmental implications of cooling water shortages on power system operations. The results show that Illinois may experience 10-15% daily load curtailment and severe congestion between certain regions from the east to central during cooling water shortages, while once-through and wet-tower units experience a 52% and 17% reduction in power generation. In conclusion, overall cooling water withdrawal decreases by 24-38% as severity intensifies.

Cooling water shortage↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Analysis Technique/Automated Tool for Comparing and Tracking Analysis Modes of Different Finite Element Models

An analysis technique was developed to compare and track mode shapes for different Finite Element Models. The technique may be applied to a variety of structural dynamics analyses, including model reduction validation (comparing unreduced and reduced models), mode tracking for various parametric analyses (e.g., launch vehicle model dispersion analysis to identify sensitivities to modal gain for Guidance, Navigation, and Control), comparing models of different mesh fidelity (e.g., a coarse model for a preliminary analysis compared to a higher-fidelity model for a detailed analysis) and mode tracking for a structure with properties that change over time (e.g., a launch vehicle from liftoff through end-of-burn, with propellant being expended during the flight). Mode shapes for different models are compared and tracked using several numerical indicators, including traditional Cross-Orthogonality and Modal Assurance Criteria approaches, as well as numerical indicators obtained by comparing modal strain energy and kinetic energy distributions. This analysis technique has been used to reliably identify correlated mode shapes for complex Finite Element Models that would otherwise be difficult to compare using traditional techniques. This improved approach also utilizes an adaptive mode tracking algorithm that allows for automated tracking when working with complex models and/or comparing a large group of models.

Towner, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Plant Water Management Experiments: Hydroponics 3 & 4

As humans consider longer-duration missions in space, NASA has identified production of fresh vegetables aboard spacecraft as beneficial for crew nutrition, mental wellbeing, and enabling bioregenerative life support (i.e., air, water, and waste processing). Current low-g plant growth techniques have successfully grown a variety of leafy and flowering plants. However, unique microgravity fluidics challenges to maintain plant moisture levels persist which hamper overall system reliability. The Plant Water Management (PWM) experiments seek to demonstrate low-cost, low-mass, reusable plant growth systems that leverage recent advances in low-g capillary fluidics phenomena to provide routine, largely passive, water delivery to plants. This paper presents findings from a series of PWM-Hydroponics 3 & 4 experiments, which were collected during three ISS flight operations that occurred in March, May, and July of 2021. Open hydroponic capillary channel flows with synthetic evapo-transpiring plant models were used. Tests demonstrated flow stability for single and parallel channel flow configurations across a range of flow rates, plant types, and plant arrangements. Technology demonstrations of both passive aeration and bubble phase separation are reported. We provide details of the data reduction and archive. Insights from the successful flight demonstrations provide a foundation from which follow-on PWM-Hydroponics 5 & 6 experiments on ISS, potentially incorporate living plants, are being considered. Xx Summary of positives and negatives..

Marc B. Wasserman↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Build-To-Replace Strategy to Reduce O&M Costs of Advanced Reactors

This paper targets the goal of reducing fixed operations and maintenance (O&M) costs to $2/MWh for advanced reactor (AR) designs, an order of magnitude reduction from current nuclear fleets. Such goal will be severely constrained if the underlying assumptions of O&M approaches and practices are not questioned and reexamined, especially today when changes can be implemented effectively and efficiently. Achieving a 90% reduction in AR O&M costs requires a completely new way of thinking – a paradigm shift – not through incremental, technology-focused approaches alone. Here, we address this challenge by evaluating the impact of moving to shorter design life for major structures, systems and components (SSCs) and shorter, more predictable refurbishment cycles as modeled by the commercial airline industry. This paper provides a brief overview of this different mindset to O&M applied to ARs: the build-to-replace approach. We provide a direct example of analysis of a build-to-replace scenario by identifying and evaluating scenarios for reduced system and component lifetimes and associated replacement and refurbishment schedules to evaluate impacts on O&M costs and other lifecycle elements such as SSC reliability.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electrochemical behavior of SnCl 2 and influence of Cu and Ni ions in molten LiCl−KCl−CaCl 2 eutectic

Reliable transport and thermodynamic data for multivalent ions in complex molten salts are scarce, limiting model fidelity for electrorefining and impurity control. Here, we report a comprehensive electrochemical characterization of SnCl₂ in LiCl–KCl–CaCl₂ (50.5–44.2–5.3 mol%) at 685 K, including the effects of Ni 2+ and Cu + impurities. Using cyclic voltammetry (CV), chronoamperometry (CA), and chronopotentiometry (CP), we quantified Sn 2+ and Ni 2+ diffusion with exceptional agreement across methods: Sn 2+ averaged (1.03 ± 0.10) × 10 −5 cm 2 s −1 , and Ni 2+ averaged (0.75 ± 0.19) × 10 −5 cm 2 s −1 . The tight confidence-interval overlap across CV, CA, and CP strengthens confidence in these values and is uncommon in molten chloride studies. Open-circuit-potential measurements provided standard apparent reduction potentials that closely match LiCl–KCl literature, indicating minimal shift with CaCl₂ present. The Sn 2+ /Sn couple behaves as a reversible two-electron soluble–insoluble process at 685 K; the Sn 4+ /Sn 2+ couple transitions to soluble–soluble behavior near 788 K, which may correlate with the decomposition of surface bound chlorostannates, though direct characterization remains to be established. In mixed systems, Cu+/Cu overlaps Sn 2+ /Sn, limiting Cusingle bondSn electroseparation, whereas the larger potential gap between Ni 2+ /Ni and Sn 2+ /Sn supports selective Ni removal. These internally consistent transport and thermodynamic data establish a validated basis for process modeling and optimization of Sn electrorefining and impurity management in LiCl–KCl–CaCl₂.

Berzins-Delahay↗

NASA NTRS1976

Alternative strategies for implementing silicon-ribbon technology for photovoltaic applications

Interactive computer models are being designed to support the development of technological and economic data required to define the potential of silicon sheet growth for large scale photovoltaic applications. Technology projection and sensitivity analysis suggest that single-ribbon growth systems offer the best potential for achieving low-cost silicon sheet material within the shortest period of time. Such systems must be highly reliable, be capable of near unattended growth, and feature automatic melt replenishment. Processing-technology improvement, such as the following, are the key elements for reducing the cost of silicon sheet material: (i) increasing ribbon width; (ii) speeding up the growth rate; and (iii) decreasing ribbon thickness. Such tasks should be pursued in that order to minimize sheet material cost. One interesting finding is that significant reductions in sheet material cost are achievable in the near future by increasing ribbon width to 5 cm.

Kran, A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the optimal sizing of power take-off systems for wave energy converters

The power take-off (PTO) system in a wave energy converter (WEC) is the means by which the energy in an ocean wave is converted into useful energy. There has been a general lack of technology convergence in the wave energy industry and PTO design has been largely device-specific with the design process determined by the WEC developer. An optimized PTO design can significantly affect the efficiency, reliability, performance, and overall cost and viability of a device. There remains a need in the marine energy industry for best practices and efficient design processes to be identified as it could greatly benefit developers and researchers in designing an optimal WEC PTO. This research utilizes the open-source Matlab-Simulink based software, WEC-Sim, which was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the Eagle, a high-performance computing system, to model and optimize two WECs of different archetypes and then investigates if any trends exist that can be exploited for greater efficiency in optimal PTO design. The results from this research indicate that there may be an optimal sizing for WEC PTOs for both power and PTO force rating and that substantial reductions can be made in the cost of a device without significant loss in the energy produced. Furthermore this optimal sizing may be independent of WEC type and deployment location. With an optimal, or near optimal, approach to WEC PTO sizing demonstrated, a methodology is proposed to address the challenge of nameplate ratings in the wave energy industry.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neutron-producing gas puff Z-pinch experiments on a fast, low-impedance, 0.5 MA linear transformer driver

A study on the neutron production from single and double gas puff Z-pinches on the CESZAR linear transformer driver with ~0.45 MA current and 170 ns rise time is presented. Total neutron yield measurements made with a LaBr activation detector are compared for three configurations, using a double nozzle setup. When a single, hollow, deuterium gas shell was used, reliable implosions could only be attained at higher load mass than the optimal value to match implosion time with the driver rise time, with neutron yields of ~10 6 per pulse. The use of a double gas puff configuration with a deuterium center jet allowed a reduction in the shell density and operation closer to machine-matched conditions, recording up to (4.1 ± 0.3) × 10 7 neutrons/pulse when either Kr or D 2 was used in the shell. For a comparable mass and implosion time, using a higher atomic-number gas in the outer shell results in more unstable plasma surface and smaller plasma radius at the location of instability bubbles, which, however, do not seem to consistently correlate with a higher neutron yield. Comparing implosion dynamics with models and neutron yields with literature scaling suggests that the machine current is not well coupled to the plasma during the final stages of compression. Optimizing current and energy coupling to the pinched plasma is critical to improving performance, particularly in low-impedance drivers.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Connected and Learning Based Optimal Freight Management for Efficiency

The management of the future heterogenous fleet is a complex decision-making problem. The heterogenous fleet is emerging as decarbonization technologies are deployed by fleets toward lowering the freight operation emissions in Medium and Heavy-duty vehicles. Traditionally, in fleets characterized by a homogeneous Diesel Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) powertrain, the process of fleet planning and operational optimization unfolds sequentially without the necessity to account for powertrain and vehicle-specific characteristics during dispatch decisions. Fleets with trucks less than 5 years old tend to maintain stable vehicle efficiency with minimal operational reliability risks for fleet managers. However, the landscape changes with the incorporation of emerging powertrain technologies, which lack extensive operational data and service experiences. This includes technologies like hybrid, Electric, Fuel Cell, or alternative fuel ICE. Operational decisions for fleets featuring heterogeneous powertrain technologies and facing limited access to alternative fueling and charging stations become intricate, requiring careful consideration and optimization at each dispatch. The difference in efficiency characteristics of emerging technologies, their range limitations, and the restricted availability of charging/alternative fueling infrastructure, coupled with sensitivity to driving conditions (e.g., EV range reduction in low temperatures) and their impact on component aging (such as batteries), become pivotal factors influencing the reliable and efficient freight transportation. To make the path toward low emission freight transportation efficient and reliable, an AI-assisted fleet management software is developed in this project to help fleet managers in optimizing both adoption of emerging powertrain decarbonization, connected and automated technologies and also operating the fleet after such technologies are deployed as schematically. Freight transportation requirements are different depending on the cargos to be shipped, customer requirements and regions of operations. This further highlights the need for software and digital solutions to tailor deployment and operation of emerging powertrain, connectivity, and automation technologies toward the specific fleet operation requirements. The fleet management optimizer was also integrated with a model of the fleet to simulate the operation of the fleet over 1 year of the baseline fleet operation (250,000+ shipments) indicating the significance of day-to-day variations on emissions and energy consumption of a freight transportation fleet. The results demonstrate ≥20% improvement in freight efficiency in terms of WTW CO2 per ton-mile of cargo shipments while all fleet operation constraints are enforced, and the cost (CapEx and OpEx) is minimized.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1979

The impact of gas-surface reactions on mass spectrometric measurements of atomic nitrogen

The paper presents a simplified model of the ion source chemistry, explains several details of the data reduction method used in obtaining atomic-nitrogen (N) densities from OSS data, and discusses implications of gas-surface reactions for the design of future satellite-borne mass spectrometers. Because of various surface reactions, N appears in three different forms in the ion source, as N, NO, and NO2. Considering the rather small spin modulation of NO and NO2 in the semi-open ionization chamber used in the OSS instrument, it is not surprising that these reaction products have not been previously identified in closed source instruments as a measure of the presence of atomic nitrogen. Warmup and/or outgassing of the ion source are shown to drastically reduce the NO2 concentration, thereby making possible reliable measurement of ambient N densities.

Engebretson, M. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robustness of Deep Learning Classification to Adversarial Input on GPUs: Asynchronous Parallel Accumulation Is a Source of Vulnerability

The ability of machine learning (ML) classification models to resist small, targeted input perturbations—known as adversarial attacks—is a key measure of their safety and reliability. We show that floating-point non associativity (FPNA) coupled with asynchronous parallel programming on GPUs is sufficient to result in misclassification, without any perturbation to the input. Additionally, we show that this misclassification is particularly significant for inputs close to the decision boundary and that standard adversarial robustness results may be overestimated up to 4.6 when not considering machine-level details. We first study a linear classifier, before focusing on standard Graph Neural Network (GNN) architectures and datasets used in robustness assessments. We develop a novel black-box attack using Bayesian optimization to discover external workloads that can change the instruction scheduling which bias the output of reductions on GPUs and reliably lead to misclassification. Motivated by these results, we present a new learnable permutation (LP) gradient-based approach to learning floating-point operation orderings that lead to misclassifications. The LP approach provides a worst-case estimate in a computationally efficient manner, avoiding the need to run identical experiments tens of thousands of times over a potentially large set of possible GPU states or architectures. Finally, using instrumentation-based testing, we investigate parallel reduction ordering across different GPU architectures under external background workloads, when utilizing multi-GPU virtualization, and when applying power capping. Our results demonstrate that parallel reduction ordering varies significantly across architectures under the first two conditions, substantially increasing the search space required to fully test the effects of this parallel scheduler-based vulnerability. These results and the methods developed here can help to include machine-level considerations into adversarial robustness assessments, which can make a difference in safety and mission critical applications.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif [Maxeler Technologies, a Groq↗

NASA NTRS2016

Thermal Management and Thermal Protection Systems

During my internship in the Thermal Design Branch (ES3), I contributed to two main projects: i) novel passive thermal management system for future human exploration, ii) AVCOAT undercut thermal analysis. i) As NASA prepares to further expand human and robotic presence in space, it is well known that spacecraft architectures will be challenged with unprecedented thermal environments. Future exploration activities will have the need of thermal management systems that can provide higher reliability, mass and power reduction and increased performance. In an effort to start addressing the current technical gaps the NASA Johnson Space Center Passive Thermal Discipline has engaged in technology development activities. One of these activities was done through an in-house Passive Thermal Management System (PTMS) design for a lunar lander. The proposed PTMS, functional in both microgravity and gravity environments, consists of three main components: a heat spreader, a novel hybrid wick Variable Conductance Heat Pipe (VCHP), and a radiator. The aim of this PTMS is to keep electronics on a vehicle within their temperature limits (0 and 50 C for the current design) during all mission phases including multiple lunar day/night cycles. The VCHP was tested to verify its thermal performance. I created a thermal math model using Thermal Desktop (TD) and analyzed it to predict the PTMS performance. After testing, the test data provided a means to correlate the thermal math model. This correlation took into account conduction and convection heat transfer, representing the actual benchtop test. Since this PTMS is proposed for space missions, a vacuum test will be taking place to provide confidence that the system is functional in space environments. Therefore, the model was modified to include a vacuum chamber with a liquid nitrogen shroud while taking into account conduction and radiation heat transfer. Infrared Lamps were modelled and introduced into the model to simulate the sun's rays directly impinging on the system. Heating rate of the lamps were calculated by knowing fraction of emitted energy in a wavelength interval and the filament temperature. This version of the model can be used to predict performance of the system under vacuum with extreme cold or hot conditions. Initial testing of the PTMS showed promise, and the thermal math model predicts even better performance in thermal vacuum testing. ii) Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) are required for vehicles which enter earth's atmosphere to protect from aerodynamic heating caused by the friction between the vehicle and atmospheric gases. Orion's heat shield design has two aspects which needed to be analyzed thermally: i) a small excess of adhesive used to bond the outer AVCOAT layer to the inner composite structure tends to seep from under the AVCOAT and form a small bead in between two bricks of AVCOAT, ii) a silicone rubber with different thermophysical properties than AVCOAT fills the gap between two bricks of AVCOAT. I created a thermal model using TD to determine temperature differences that are caused by these two features. To prevent false results, all TD models must be verified against something known. In this case, the TD model was correlated to CHAR, an ablation modelling software used to analyze TPS. Analyzing a node far from the concerning features, we saw that the TD model data match CHAR data, verifying the TD model. Next, the temperature of the silicone rubber as well as the bead of adhesive were analyzed to determine if they exceeded allowable temperatures. It was determined that these two features do not have a significant effect on the max temperature of the heat shield. This model can be modified to check temperatures at various locations of the heat shield where the composite thickness varies.

Hasnain, Aqib↗

NASA NTRS2004

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Evaluation of Estimates Using Independent Data - Part 2

Rainfall rate estimates from space-borne k&ents are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science commu&y. One-of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRh4M) facility rain rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations fiom the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). Part I of this study describes improvements in the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce cloud latent heating and drying as additional algorithm products. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, OP5resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean fiom the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over forerunning algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm, and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly, 2.5 deg. -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data are limited, TMI estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with: (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem, and/or; (b) physically-consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous, 0.5 deg-resolution rain rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons to collocated radar. Error model modifications for non-raining situations will be required, however. Sampling error appears to represent only a fraction of the total error in monthly, 2S0-resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to physical inconsistency or non-representativeness of cloud-resolving model simulated profiles supporting the algorithm.

Yang, Song↗

NASA NTRS2006

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part II: Evaluation of Estimates Using Independent Data

Rainfall rate estimates from spaceborne microwave radiometers are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science community. One of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) facility rain-rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). In Part I of this series, improvements of the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce latent heating as an additional algorithm product are described. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, 0.5 deg. -resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean from the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over earlier algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly 2.5 -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data is limited, TMI-estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain-rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem and/or (b) physically consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous 0.5 deg. -resolution rain-rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons with collocated radar. Error model modifications for nonraining situations will be required, however. Sampling error represents only a portion of the total error in monthly 2.5 -resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to random and systematic algorithm errors arising from the physical inconsistency and/or nonrepresentativeness of cloud-resolving-model-simulated profiles that support the algorithm.

Yang, Song↗

NASA NTRS2011

Reliability Based Design for a Raked Wing Tip of an Airframe

A reliability-based optimization methodology has been developed to design the raked wing tip of the Boeing 767-400 extended range airliner made of composite and metallic materials. Design is formulated for an accepted level of risk or reliability. The design variables, weight and the constraints became functions of reliability. Uncertainties in the load, strength and the material properties, as well as the design variables, were modeled as random parameters with specified distributions, like normal, Weibull or Gumbel functions. The objective function and constraint, or a failure mode, became derived functions of the risk-level. Solution to the problem produced the optimum design with weight, variables and constraints as a function of the risk-level. Optimum weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to a 50 percent probability of success, or one failure in two samples. Under some assumptions, this design would be quite close to the deterministic optimum solution. The weight increased when reliability exceeded 50 percent, and decreased when the reliability was compromised. A design could be selected depending on the level of risk acceptable to a situation. The optimization process achieved up to a 20-percent reduction in weight over traditional design.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Early Fault Detection in Nuclear Systems: A Digital Engineering Approach

Nuclear energy systems present unique challenges in terms of ensuring safety, reliability, and efficiency during their design and operation. Early fault detection is critical for mitigating risks and fostering system resilience. However, current methods often fall short at identifying faults during early stages, potentially leading to costly delays and safety risks. The present work proposes a comprehensive digital engineering approach that leverages digital twins, digital threads, model-based systems engineering, artificial intelligence, and immersive extended reality to support early fault detection in nuclear systems. Through a series of case studies, we highlight specific gaps in the fault detection mechanisms of traditional nuclear design and operation processes, then demonstrate a suite of solutions we are working to implement to address these shortcomings in similar projects. Our findings suggest that a digital engineering approach to design and operation can significantly improve fault detection, ultimately leading to reductions in risk.

42 - ENGINEERING↗