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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

SEI Formation and Lithium-Ion Electrodeposition Dynamics in Lithium Metal Batteries via First-Principles Kinetic Monte Carlo Modeling

The stabilization and enhanced performance of lithium metal batteries (LMBs) depend on the formation and evolution of the Solid Electrolyte Interphase (SEI) layer as a critical component for regulating the Li metal electrodeposition processes. This study employs a first-principles kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) model to simulate the SEI formation and Li + electrodeposition processes on a lithium metal anode, integrating both the electrochemical electrolyte reduction reactions and the diffusion events giving place to the SEI aggregation processes during battery charge and discharge processes. The model replicates the competitive interactions between organic and inorganic SEI components, emphasizing the influence of the cycling regime. Results indicate that grain boundaries within the SEI facilitate faster lithium-ion transport compared to crystalline regions, crucial for improving the performance and stability of LMBs. The findings underscore the importance of dynamic SEI modeling for further development of next-generation high-energy-density batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microbial Community Changes across Time and Space in a Constructed Wetland

Constructed wetlands are artificial ecosystems designed to replicate natural wetland processes. Microbial communities play a pivotal role in cycling essential elements, particularly sulfur, which is crucial for trace metal fixation and remobilization in these ecosystems. By their response to their environment, microbial communities act as biological indicators of the wetland performance. To address knowledge gaps pertinent to the changes in trace metal bioavailability in relation to microbial activities in the H-02 constructed wetland, we performed this study to investigate temporal and spatial variations in microbial communities by using molecular biology tools. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction and next generation sequencing techniques were employed to analyze archaeal and bacterial groups associated with sulfur and methane cycling. Alpha diversity indices were used to assess species richness, evenness, and dominance. Results indicated high gene abundance of Desulfuromonas (5.37 × 10 6 g.cell –1 ), methane oxidizing bacteria (6.92 × 10 6 g.cell –1 ), and methanogenic microorganisms (3.02 × 10 5 g.cell –1 ) during cool months. Warm months were marked by sulfate reducing bacteria dominance (3.31 × 10 6 g.cell –1 ), potentially due to competitive interactions and environmental conditions, higher temperatures, and lower redox potential. Spatial variability among microbial groups was insignificant, but trends in gene abundance indicated complex factors influencing these groups. Next generation sequencing data demonstrated Firmicutes as the most abundant phylum with over 50% regardless of the season or sampling location. Cool months exhibited higher alpha diversity than warm months. Overall, this study showed that seasonal changes significantly impacted the microbial communities in the H-02 constructed wetland that are associated with the sulfur cycle and eventually trace metal biogeochemistry, revealing two distinct mechanisms of the sulfur cycle between the two main seasons, whereas spatial variability effects were not conclusive.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Steric and Electronic Properties of P2 Groups on Covalent Inhibitor Binding to SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease

The main protease (MPro) of SARS-CoV-2 is a critical enzyme required for viral replication, making it a prime target for antiviral drug development. Covalent inhibitors, which form a stable interaction with the catalytic C145, have demonstrated strong inhibition of MPro, but the influence of steric and electronic properties of P2 substituents, designed to engage the S2 substrate-binding subsite within the MPro active site, on inhibitor binding affinity remains underexplored. Here, in this study, we design and characterize two hybrid covalent inhibitors, BBH-3 and BBH-4, and present their X-ray crystallographic structures in complex with MPro, providing molecular insights into how their distinct P2 groups, a dichlorobenzyl moiety in BBH-3 and an adamantyl substituent in BBH-4, affect binding conformation and active site adaptability. Comparative structural analyses with previously characterized inhibitors, including BBH-2 and Mcule-5948770040, reveal how the P2 bulkiness and electronic properties influence active site dynamics, particularly through interactions with the S2 and S5 subsites. The P2 group of BBH-3 induces conformational shifts in the S2 helix and the S5 loop, while BBH-4 displaces M49, stabilizing its binding through hydrophobic interactions. Isothermal titration calorimetry further elucidates the impact of P2 modifications on inhibitor affinity, revealing a delicate balance between enthalpic and entropic contributions. The data demonstrate that BBH-3 exhibits less favorable binding, affirming that dichlorobenzyl substitution at the P2 position has a more negative impact on the affinity for MPro than bulky saturated cyclic groups. This underscores the feature that MPro active site malleability may be accompanied by a conformational strain.

SARS-CoV-2↗
DOE OSTI2026

Chemoproteomic Elucidation of β-Lactam Drug Targets in Mycobacterium abscessus

The pathogen Mycobacterium abscessus (Mab) can cause severe and difficult-to-treat chronic lung infections. Despite the rising incidence and clinical concern of Mab infections, treatment options are limited and often ineffective. Treatment is complicated by Mab’s ability to persist in a nonreplicating, drug-resistant state. Several β-lactam antibiotics are potently bactericidal against Mab but are underutilized because their molecular mechanisms of action against Mab are incompletely understood. In the current study, we used β-lactam-derived activity-based probes and chemoproteomics to report the first comprehensive list of Mab enzymes targeted by β-lactams. We compared β-lactam targets across two Mab subspecies in actively replicating and nonreplicating cultures, using a new carbon starvation model of persistence. We identified 17 targets that were active in every condition tested, seven of which were previously unknown to bind β-lactams. Lastly, we characterized the β-lactamase activity and β-lactam inhibition profiles of nine Mab enzymes, demonstrating that imipenem inhibits these targets more effectively than cefoxitin. These findings demonstrate β-lactam target engagement in persistent Mab and provide clarity on the mechanisms of action of clinically relevant β-lactams in Mab, crucial steps toward fully realizing their potential for treating infections caused by this opportunistic pathogen.

Mycobacterium abscessus↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gold–Thiolate Nanocluster Dynamics and Intercluster Reactions Enabled by a Machine Learned Interatomic Potential

Monolayer protected metal clusters comprise a rich class of molecular systems and are promising candidate materials for a variety of applications. While a growing number of protected nanoclusters have been synthesized and characterized in crystalline forms, their dynamical behavior in solution, including prenucleation cluster formation, is not well understood due to limitations both in characterization and first-principles modeling techniques. Recent advancements in machine-learned interatomic potentials are rapidly enabling the study of complex interactions such as dynamical behavior and reactivity on the nanoscale. Here, we develop an Au-S-C-H atomic cluster expansion (ACE) interatomic potential for efficient and accurate molecular dynamics simulations of thiolate-protected gold nanoclusters (Au n (SCH 3 ) m ). Trained on more than 30,000 density functional theory calculations of gold nanoclusters, the interatomic potential exhibits ab initio level accuracy in energies and forces and replicates nanocluster dynamics including thermal vibration and chiral inversion. Long dynamics simulations (up to 0.1 μs time scale) reveal a mechanism explaining the thermal instability of neutral Au 25 (SR) 18 clusters. Specifically, we observe multiple stages of isomerization of the Au 25 (SR) 18 cluster, including a chiral isomer. Additionally, we simulate coalescence of two Au 25 (SR) 18 clusters and observe series of clusters where the formation mechanisms are critically mediated by ligand exchange in the form of [Au-S] n rings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emergence of Moiré Dirac Fermions at the Interface of Topological and 2D Magnetic Insulators

Dirac Fermions on the surface of the topological insulator are spin-momentum locked and topologically protected, making them interesting for spintronics and quantum computing applications. When in proximity to magnetism and superconductivity, these electronic states could result in quantum anomalous Hall effect and Majorana Fermions, respectively. An even more dramatic enrichment of the topological insulators’ physics is expected for moiré superlattices, where, analogously to the twisted graphene layers, electronic correlations could be strongly enhanced, a task previously notoriously difficult to achieve in topological matter. Until now, the experimental confirmation of such moiré properties has remained elusive. Here, we grow the two-dimensional van der Waals magnetic insulators FeX 2 (where X = Cl or Br) on top of the topological insulator Bi 2 Se 3 and establish a moiré superlattice formation at the interface. By means of scanning tunneling microscopy and angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, we investigate the electronic properties of the formed moiré superlattice and demonstrate its tunability via the film choice. We reveal replicated Dirac cones and focus on their intersections, which, in the case of FeBr 2 /Bi 2 Se 3 , occur below the Fermi level. We identify the signatures of small gaps at the intersections around the M̅ i points that we attribute to the moiré interaction. These findings point to the specific type of magnetic moiré potential that breaks the time-reversal symmetry at these points but not at the $\barΓ$ point. Our observations provide an intriguing scenario of correlated topological phases induced by moiré superlattice that may result in topological superconductivity, high Chern number phases, and exotic noncollinear magnetic textures.

2D magnets↗
DOE OSTI2026

Peptoid-Based Nanosheets Exhibiting Broad Antiviral Activity Against Enveloped RNA Viruses

Enveloped RNA viruses, such as Influenza A (H1N1) and Sindbis virus, pose persistent global health threats due to their high mutation rates, efficient transmission, and frequent drug resistance. By mimicking host cell membrane receptors, multivalent virus inhibitors can block viral attachment, making them promising broad-spectrum antiviral agents. However, most of existing antivirals are often limited by strain specificity, short-lived efficacy, and toxicity. Here, we introduce a broad-spectrum antiviral platform based on highly tunable and biocompatible two-dimensional nanomembranes (2DNMs) self-assembled from amphiphilic peptoids, operating via a non-genomic, mutation-insensitive mechanism. By varying peptoid sequence, we design and synthesize over twenty different 2DNMs with various surface charge and high density of viral-attachment ligands (VALs). The self-assembled architecture of these stable 2DNMs provides cooperative noncovalent multivalent binding to virus particles that result in effective inhibition of viral infection. Screening of variants identified three leads that potently suppressed Influenza A (H1N1) and Sindbis virus infection across median tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50), plaque, RT–qPCR, and immunofluorescence assays, while maintaining >90% cell viability. These nanosheets significantly reduced infectious titers, viral RNA replication, and intracellular viral protein expression, indicating inhibition at early stages of viral entry and propagation. The sequence programmability, chemical robustness, and mutation-insensitive antiviral activity distinguish 2DNMs from traditional antivirals and positions them as a versatile materials platform for antiviral coatings, protective barriers, and prophylactic biomedical applications.

Influenza A virus↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial Distribution and Clustering of Glycosaminoglycans in Electrospun Gelatin-Based Scaffolds

The extracellular matrix (ECM) is comprised of components like collagen, elastin, and glycosaminoglycans (GAGs). Electrospun fibrous scaffolds are designed to replicate the form and composition of the native ECM, often requiring blending of various ECM component mimics to enhance cellular responses. However, the spatial distribution of blended components within these fibers remains unclear. This study investigates the spatial distribution of chondroitin sulfate-C (CSC) in electrospun gelatin-based scaffolds. scanning electron microscopy (SEM), attenuated reflectance-Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and Time-of-flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) were applied for surface and subsurface chemical characterization of the fibrous scaffolds. SEM confirmed a fibrous morphology, while ATR-FTIR and XPS analyses indicated the presence of CSC through the identification of sulfate groups. ToF-SIMS imaging, alongside K-means clustering and Ripley’s K function, revealed a nonuniform CSC distribution with higher concentrations at the top layer of the scaffold. This study demonstrates that CSC presentation at the fiber surface varies with depth and differs from bulk incorporation while reveals nanoscale clustering and spatial heterogeneity at both the surface and subsurface of electrospun gelatin fibers. These findings define an underexplored design consideration with potential to influence cell–scaffold interactions.

Animal derived food↗
DOE OSTI2026

Novel Cell-Type-Specific Drought-Responsive Proteins in Root Tips of Field-Grown Perennial Switchgrass

The root-tip region of plants, including the root cap, forms the most basal terminal of the root and exhibits a high degree of cellular complexity in terms of morphology, cytological function, and interaction with environmental cues in the soil. Cells in this region follow a developmental trajectory, transitioning from stem cells to meristematic cells, and ultimately to fully differentiated cell types. However, our understanding of root-tip cell-type specific proteomic responses to abiotic stresses, such as drought, particularly under field conditions, remains limited. This study aimed to identify spatially resolved, cell type-specific proteomes in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) root tips under drought stress. Root tips were collected from seven-year-old, field-grown switchgrass ‘Alamo’ plants excavated under both well-watered and long-term drought conditions. Cell type-specific proteins were identified using laser capture microdissection (LCM) coupled with nanoPOTS (Nanodroplet Processing in One Pot for Trace Samples) and nano-LC-MS proteomics analysis. Five distinct cell types were targeted: (1) cells in the quiescent center and stem cell niche (QuC), (2) protodermal epidermal cells (PEC) in the meristematic zone, (3) epidermal cells in the transition and elongation zones above the root cap (Epi), (4) peripheral root cap cells (PRC), forming 2–3 layers below the PEC and 1–2 layers above the root border cells, and (5) columella root cap cells (Col) comprising of the columella initials and a single underlying layer of cells undergoing active growth. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed clear separation among the five targeted cell types, confirming distinct proteomic profiles. Proteins predominantly enriched in each cell type were linked to distinct cellular functions, with QuC cells showing involvement in chromosomal behavior, DNA replication, and mitosis—key processes for stem cell niche regulation. Drought stress resulted in alterations of proteostasis, as evidenced by significant decreases in ribosomal proteins and increases in protein synthesis inhibitors. Moreover, drought stress induced unique cell-type–specific proteins involved in phytohormone biosynthesis and signaling pathways, including auxin, cytokinin, and jasmonic acid. In particular, QuC cells were more highly enriched in proteins associated with DNA repair and mitotic processes. Metabolic pathways related to amino acids, carbohydrates, and lipids were differentially affected in a cell-type–dependent manner, whereas general stress-responsive proteins exhibited consistent changes across all five cell types. Overall, this study provides unique spatially resolved, cell-type-specific proteomic profiles in root tips, representing a significant advancement in our understanding of the cellular mechanisms underlying plant responses to drought stress in natural field conditions.

perennial grass↗
DOE OSTI2025

RT-EZ: A Golden Gate Assembly Toolkit for Streamlined Genetic Engineering of Rhodotorula toruloides

For economic and sustainable biomanufacturing, the oleaginous yeast Rhodotorula toruloides has emerged as a promising platform for producing biofuels, pharmaceuticals, and other valuable chemicals. However, genetic manipulation of R. toruloides has been limited by its high GC content and the lack of a replicating plasmid, necessitating gene integration into the genome of the yeast. To address these challenges, we developed the RT-EZ (R. toruloides Efficient Zipper) toolkit, a versatile tool based on Golden Gate assembly, designed to streamline R. toruloides engineering with improved efficiency and flexibility. The RT-EZ toolkit simplifies vector construction by incorporating new features such as bidirectional promoters and 2A peptides, color-based screening using RFP, and sequences optimized for both Agrobacterium tumefaciens-mediated transformation (ATMT) and easy linearization, enabling straightforward selection and transformation. Notably, the RT-EZ kit can be used to construct an expression cassette with four different genes in one assembly reaction, significantly improving vector construction speed and efficiency. The utility of the RT-EZ toolkit was demonstrated through the successful synthesis of arachidonic acid in R. toruloides by coexpressing fatty acid elongases and desaturases. Furthermore, this result underscores the potential of the RT-EZ toolkit to advance synthetic biology in R. toruloides, providing a streamlined method for addressing genetic engineering challenges in the yeast.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diaminopurine in Nonenzymatic RNA Template Copying

In the RNA World before the emergence of an RNA polymerase, nonenzymatic template copying would have been essential for the transmission of genetic information. However, the products of chemical copying with the canonical nucleotides (A, U, C, and G) are heavily biased toward the incorporation of G and C, which form a more stable base pair than A and U. We therefore asked whether replacing adenine (A) with diaminopurine (D) might lead to more efficient and less biased nonenzymatic template copying by making a stronger version of the A:U pair. As expected, primer extension substrates containing D bound to U in the template more tightly than substrates containing A. However, primer extension with D exhibited elevated reaction rates on a C template, leading to concerns about fidelity. Our crystallographic studies revealed the nature of the D:C mismatch by showing that D can form a wobble-type base pair with C. We then asked whether competition with G would decrease the mismatched primer extension. We performed nonenzymatic primer extension with all four activated nucleotides on randomized RNA templates containing all four letters and used deep sequencing to analyze the products. We found that the DUCG genetic system exhibited a more even product distribution and a lower mismatch frequency than the canonical AUCG system. Furthermore, primer extension is greatly reduced following all mismatches, including the D:C mismatch. Our study suggests that D deserves further attention for its possible role in the RNA World and as a potentially useful component of artificial nonenzymatic RNA replication systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mechanism of Tyrosine-Driven Deprotonation in Photosystem II Revealed by Multiscale Simulations

Photosystem II (PSII) drives light-induced water oxidation via stepwise redox transitions of its oxygen-evolving complex (OEC), a Mn 4 Ca cluster advancing through five intermediate S-states (S 0 –S 4 ). The S 2 → S 3 transition involves a redox event in which a Mn ion donates an electron to the redox-active tyrosine YZ, coupled to deprotonation of an OEC-bound water ligand─yet the underlying coupling mechanism remains unresolved. Time-resolved serial femtosecond crystallography (TR-SFX) has revealed transient electron density shifts near the redox-active tyrosine Y Z , interpreted as sequential oxidation and reduction, with reduction initiating ∼1 μs after excitation and substantially progressed by 30 μs. However, this interpretation conflicts with kinetics from photothermal beam deflection (PBD), time-resolved X-ray absorption spectroscopy (TR-XAS), and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), which place electron transfer at 190–400 μs and proton transfer around 30 μs. Here, we reconcile these discrepancies using quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We show that oxidation of P680 and Y Z breaks the symmetry of the nearby hydrogen bonds involving water molecule W4, displacing Y Z and replicating the TR-SFX features of Y Z and Q165 observed at 1 μs. This local perturbation propagates through a hydrogen-bond network, transmitting the electrostatic signal from Y Z to the E65-E312 dyad and triggering redox-coupled deprotonation via the Cl1 channel. By 30 μs, the hydrogen-bond symmetry is restored through deprotonation of W2 (or alternatively W1), reproducing the disappearance of TR-SFX density differences around Y Z and Q165 without requiring Y Z reduction. Our proposed mechanism also gives molecular insights into the O6* density, assigning it to water reorganization rather than a discrete Ca-bound hydroxide species. Here, our results reveal a detailed atomistic mechanism linking Y Z oxidation to long-range proton release and suggest a functional role for the nearby Cl – ion in proton transfer. More broadly, this study underscores the importance of hydrogen-bond dynamics in mediating redox-driven proton transport and demonstrates how integrative simulations can resolve mechanistic ambiguities.

Deprotonation↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Method to Train Classification Models for Structure Detection in In Situ Spacecraft Data

We present a method for creating spacecraft-like data which can be used to train Machine Learning (ML) models to detect and classify structures in in situ spacecraft data. First, we use the Grad-Shafranov equation to numerically solve for several magnetohydrostatic equilibria which are variations on a known analytic equilibrium. These equilibria are then used as the initial conditions for Particle-In-Cell simulations in which the structures of interest are observed and labeled. We then take one-dimensional slices through the simulations to replicate what a spacecraft collecting data from the simulation would observe. This sliced data then can be used as training data for the initial training of ML models intended for use on spacecraft data. We demonstrate the method applied to the problem of detecting small-scale plasmoids in the magnetotail, which is important for understanding complex magnetotail reconnection dynamics. The simple 1D classifier we train is able to detect more than 70% of the plasmoid points in the data set but also produces a large number of false positives. Our further work on this example problem is detailed, and further potential uses of the method are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Well Does the DOE Global Storm Resolving Model Simulate Clouds and Precipitation Over the Amazon?

This study assesses a 40-day 3.25-km global simulation of the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Model (SCREAMv0) using high-resolution ground-based observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign. SCREAMv0 reasonably captures the diurnal timing of boundary layer clouds yet underestimates the boundary layer cloud fraction and mid-level congestus. SCREAMv0 well replicates the precipitation diurnal cycle, however it exhibits biases in the precipitation cluster size distribution compared to scanning radar observations. Specifically, SCREAMv0 overproduces clusters smaller than 128 km, and does not form enough large clusters. Such biases suggest an inhibition of convective upscale growth, preventing isolated deep convective clusters from evolving into larger mesoscale systems. This model bias is partially attributed to the misrepresentation of land-atmosphere coupling. This study highlights the potential use of high-resolution ground-based observations to diagnose convective processes in global storm resolving model simulations, identify key model deficiencies, and guide future process-oriented model sensitivity tests and detailed analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Complementing Dynamical Downscaling With Super‐Resolution Convolutional Neural Networks

Despite advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods for climate downscaling, significant challenges remain for their practicality in climate research. Current AI-methods exhibit notable limitations, such as limited application in downscaling Global Climate Models (GCMs), and accurately representing extremes. To address these challenges, we implement an AI-based methodology using super-resolution convolutional neural networks (SRCNN), trained and evaluated on 40 years of daily precipitation data from a reanalysis and a high-resolution dynamically downscaled counterpart. The dynamical downscaled simulations, constrained using spectral nudging, enable the replication of historical events at a higher resolution. This allows the SRCNN to emulate dynamical downscaling effectively. Modifications, such as incorporating elevation data and data pre-processing enhances overall model performance, while using exponential and quantile loss functions improve the simulation of extremes. Our findings show SRCNN models efficiently and skillfully downscale precipitation from GCMs. Future work will expand this methodology to downscale additional variables for future climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical Investigation of Observational Flux Partitioning Methods for Water Vapor and Carbon Dioxide

Abstract While yearly budgets of CO 2 flux (F c ) and evapotranspiration (ET) above vegetation can be readily obtained from eddy‐covariance measurements, the separate quantification of their soil (respiration and evaporation) and canopy (photosynthesis and transpiration) components remains an elusive yet critical research objective. In this work, we investigate four methods to partition observed total fluxes into soil and plant sources: two new and two existing approaches that are based solely on analysis of conventional high frequency eddy‐covariance (EC) data. The physical validity of the assumptions of all four methods, as well as their performance under different scenarios, are tested with the aid of large‐eddy simulations, which are used to replicate eddy‐covariance field experiments. Our results indicate that canopies with large, exposed soil patches increase the mixing and correlation of scalars; this negatively impacts the performance of the partitioning methods, all of which require some degree of uncorrelatedness between CO 2 and water vapor. In addition, best performances for all partitioning methods were found when all four flux components are non‐negligible, and measurements are collected close to the canopy top. Methods relying on the water‐use efficiency (W) perform better whenWis known a priori, but are shown to be very sensitive to uncertainties in this input variable especially when canopy fluxes dominate. We conclude by showing how the correlation coefficient between CO 2 and water vapor can be used to infer the reliability of differentWparameterizations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach

Causal discovery tools enable scientists to infer meaningful relationships from observational data, spurring advances in fields as diverse as biology, economics, and climate science. Despite these successes, the application of causal discovery to space-time systems remains immensely challenging due to the high-dimensional nature of the data. For example, in climate sciences, modern observational temperature records over the past few decades regularly measure thousands of locations around the globe. To address these challenges, we introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe), a novel meta-algorithm for discovering causal structures in complex space-time systems. CaStLe leverages regularities in local space-time dependencies to learn governing global dynamics. This local perspective eliminates spurious confounding and drastically reduces sample complexity, making space-time causal discovery practical and effective. For causal discovery, CaStLe flexibly accepts any appropriately adapted time series causal discovery algorithm to recover local causal structures. These advances enable causal discovery of geophysical phenomena that were previously unapproachable, including non-periodic, transient phenomena such as volcanic eruption plumes. Regularities in local space-time dependencies are transformed into informative spatial replicates, which actually improve CaStLe's performance when applied to ever-larger spatial grids. We successfully apply CaStLe to discover the atmospheric dynamics governing the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. We provide validation experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of CaStLe over existing causal-discovery frameworks on a range of geophysics-inspired benchmarks while identifying the method's limitations and domains where its assumptions may not hold.

Nichol, J. Jake [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Streamflow Reanalysis Across the Conterminous US Leveraging Multiple Gridded Precipitation Data Sets

Streamflow observations, essential for various water resource applications, are often unavailable at critical locations in need. Although different models have been proposed to enhance streamflow predictability at ungauged locations, the challenge extends beyond model fidelity. Differences in meteorologic forcing data sets, precipitation in particular, can significantly affect the accuracy of hydrologic predictions. This challenge intensifies across regions characterized by diverse hydro-climatological and geographical conditions, such as in the conterminous US (CONUS) where a single precipitation product struggles to consistently replicate observed hydrographs, particularly peak flow dynamics. To enhance streamflow predictions, we utilize a VIC-RAPID hydrologic modeling framework driven by multiple commonly used meteorological forcing data sets, such as Daymet, PRISM, ST4, AORC, and their hybrids and create multiple sets of 40-year (1980–2019) hourly, daily, and monthly streamflow reanalysis, Dayflow Version 2, for 2.7 million river reaches across the CONUS. Most forcings lead to skillful streamflow performance, except for ST4 in the mountainous west, where severe radar blockage adversely affects the accuracy. The evaluation using over 6,000 hourly stream gauges shows that hourly AORC and ST4 lead to improved annual peak flow performance over Daymet—driven streamflow (Dayflow V1), particularly in smaller basins, highlighting the value of high temporal resolution forcings in hydrologic predictions. Compared with other benchmark data sets like National Water Model V3.0, AORC-driven VIC-RAPID exhibits improved regional streamflow performance, with comparable peak flow representation. We envision that multi-forcing streamflow reanalysis data can inform regions in need of forcing data enhancement, diagnose hydrologic model performance, and benefit diverse water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗