Representing Organic Matter Thermodynamics in Biogeochemical Reactions via Substrate-Explicit Modeling
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The compatibilities of fuel system elastomers and plastics were evaluated for test fuels containing 16 vol.% isobutanol (iBu16) and 10 vol.% ethanol (E10). Elastomers included two fluorocarbons, four acrylonitrile butadiene rubbers (NBRs), and one type of fluorosilicone, neoprene, and epichlorohydrin/ethylene oxide. Plastic materials included four nylon grades, three polyamides, polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF), ethylene tetrafluoroethylene (ETFE), polyphenylene sulfide (PPS), high-density polyethylene (HDPE), polybutylene terephthalate (PBT), polyoxymethylene (POM), flexible polyvinylchloride (PVC), polyetherimide (PEI), polyetheretherketone (PEEK), and a phenol formaldehyde reinforced with glass fiber (GFPF). For each polymer material, the volume, mass, and hardness were measured before and after drying. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) measurements were also performed on the dried specimens.For the elastomer materials the measured properties were similar for both fuels. The fluorocarbons and fluorosilicone swelled the least (~20%), while more moderate (20-45%) expansion occurred for the two NBR hose grades and (ECO). HNBR, neoprene, and silicone exhibited high swelling and softening, which likely precludes their use in many fuel systems. For the plastic materials, the observed swell was low; Nylon 11 swelled around 15%, but otherwise, their measured swell was <10%. Many of the plastics also showed sensitivity to alcohol type, as the E10 test fuel often imparted appreciably higher swell than iBu16. In general, the plastic materials showed good compatibility with the iBu16 and E10 test fuels. Here, the sole exception was the PVC material, which was structurally degraded from exposure to either fuel type. Compositional analysis showed high fuel retention in Nylon 12 and PVC. PVC also experienced a significant reduction in plasticizer compounds following exposure, which resulted in embrittlement and an increase in the glass-to-rubber transition temperature.
Tropical ecosystems contribute significantly to global emissions of methane (CH 4 ), and landscape topography influences the rate of CH 4 emissions from wet tropical forest soils. However, extreme events such as drought can alter normal topographic patterns of emissions. Here we explain the dynamics of CH 4 emissions during normal and drought conditions across a catena in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. Valley soils served as the major source of CH 4 emissions in a normal precipitation year (2016), but drought recovery in 2015 resulted in dramatic pulses in CH 4 emissions from all topographic positions. Geochemical parameters including (i) dissolved organic carbon (C), acetate, and soil pH and (ii) hydrological parameters like soil moisture and oxygen (O 2 ) concentrations varied across the catena. During the drought, soil moisture decreased in the slope and ridge, and O 2 concentrations increased in the valley. We simulated the dynamics of CH 4 emissions with the Microbial Model for Methane Dynamics-Dual Arrhenius and Michaelis–Menten (M3D-DAMM), which couples a microbial functional group CH 4 model with a diffusivity module for solute and gas transport within soil microsites. Contrasting patterns of soil moisture, O 2 , acetate, and associated changes in soil pH with topography regulated simulated CH 4 emissions, but emissions were also altered by rate-limited diffusion in soil microsites. Changes in simulated available substrate for CH 4 production (acetate, CO 2 , and H 2 ) and oxidation (O 2 and CH 4 ) increased the predicted biomass of methanotrophs during the drought event and methanogens during drought recovery, which in turn affected net emissions of CH 4 . A variance-based sensitivity analysis suggested that parameters related to aceticlastic methanogenesis and methanotrophy were most critical to simulate net CH 4 emissions. This study enhanced the predictive capability for CH 4 emissions associated with complex topography and drought in wet tropical forest soils.
Abstract. Large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) are commonly used for regional and global assessment of future water shortage outcomes under climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The irrigation of croplands, which accounts for the lion's share of human water consumption, is critical in understanding these water shortage trajectories. Despite irrigation's defining role, LHM frameworks typically impose trajectories of land use that underlie irrigation demand, neglecting potential dynamic feedbacks in the form of human instigation of and subsequent adaptation to water shortages via irrigated crop area changes. We extend an LHM, MOSART-WM, with adaptive farmer agents, applying the model to the continental United States to explore water shortage outcomes that emerge from the interplay between hydrologic-driven surface water availability, reservoir management, and farmer irrigated crop area adaptation. The extended modeling framework is used to conduct a hypothetical computational experiment comparing differences between a model run with and without the incorporation of adaptive farmer agents. These comparative simulations reveal that accounting for farmer adaptation via irrigated crop area changes substantially alters modeled water shortage outcomes, with US-wide annual water shortages being reduced by as much as 42 % when comparing adaptive and non-adaptive versions of the model forced with US climatology from the period 1950–2009.
Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Talk #1: Behavioral Generative Agents for Energy Operations Presenter: Dr. Cong Chen (Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College) Abstract: Accurately modeling consumer behavior in energy operations remains challenging due to inherent uncertainties, behavioral complexities, and limited empirical data. This talk introduces a novel approach leveraging generative agents--artificial agents powered by large language models--to realistically simulate customer decision-making in dynamic energy operations. Talk #2: Simulating multiple human perspectives in socio-ecological systems using large language models Presenter: Dr. Yongchao Zeng (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU) of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany) Abstract: Understanding socio-ecological systems requires insights from diverse stakeholder perspectives. This talk describes a novel simulation system called HoPeS (Human-oriented Perspective Shifting). HoPeS enables model users to not only explore simulated socio-ecological systems (SESs) from a third-person observer's perspective but also take any of the simulated stakeholder roles, like playing an RPG game. By shifting multiple perspectives, model users can reflect and integrate the situated knowledge learned through the participatory simulation, approximating a more holistic and less biased understanding of SESs. Moderators: Jim Yoon (MSD CoP Human Systems Modeling Working Group Co-Chair); Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP Using AI to Enhance MSD Research Working Group Co-Chair); Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: November 13th, 2025 from 12-1 PM EST.
Many children and adolescents experience insufficient sleep, which poses risks for their short- and long-term health and development. This study examined the concurrent associations of contextual factors, including child, demographic, neighborhood, and family factors, with short sleep duration.
An exemplary method of displaying a data visualization includes retrieving a dataset that includes a plurality of fields and displaying a graphical user interface with a plurality of shelves. The method further includes receiving user actions to: (i) associate a first field with a first shelf, and (ii) associate a second field with a second shelf; displaying, in accordance with the received user actions, a data visualization, where each data mark has a first size defined according to a default position of a displayed slidable affordance; and receiving an additional user action that moves the slidable affordance from the default position to a user-defined position. In response to receiving the additional user action, the method further includes updating the data visualization, where each data mark included in the updated data visualization has a second size, different from the first size, defined according to the user-defined position of the slidable affordance.
U.S. critical infrastructure is increasingly composed of integrated cyber-physical systems (CPS) whose components are operationally interdependent. These interdependencies can create additional vulnerabilities beyond those that are typically evaluated through independent physical and cyber risk assessments. These additional vulnerabilities, previously undetected at the sub-system and/or component level, could cause cascading effects across both the physical and cyber domains that could lead to infrastructure disruption or failure. This paper will review an initial mathematical framework developed to help understand the dynamics of these interfacing physical and cyber components at a holistic system level. The resulting framework also provides a method for modeling and assessing the resilience of CPS in complex and adaptive systems. It frames the system in terms of mission performance and the potential effects to performance caused by attacks that are cyber, physical, or blended in nature. The framework utilizes a systems-based, state-space modeling approach to reason about risk, resilience, and interdependencies in CPS. Probabilities are applied to each CPS component regarding a threat (both man-made and natural) and the likelihood of that particular component being impacted, along with indirect impact to other interdependent components. These component-level impacts from threats then translate into mission-level impact and systemic state change.
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